AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 15, 2026 02:37 UTC
#1 · Score 783

Iran Shipping Attack Probability Surges 伊朗袭击航运概率飙升

97% +78.0%

Iran successfully targets shipping on August 13, 2026?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping by August 13, 2026, surged to 97% following explicit Iranian declarations of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent headlines indicate Iran's intent to prevent unauthorized transit and warnings of potential "kinetic" responses to US economic containment. 伊朗成功袭击航运的概率在2026年8月13日前飙升至97%，此前伊朗明确宣布控制霍尔木兹海峡。最新头条显示，伊朗意图阻止未经授权的船只通过，并警告可能对美国经济遏制采取“动能”回应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran declares Strait of Hormuz "under its control."
  • Tehran warns no ship can transit Hormuz without authorization.
  • Analyst warns Iran could unleash "kinetic" response.
  • 伊朗宣称霍尔木兹海峡“在其控制下”。
  • 德黑兰警告未经授权船只不得通过霍尔木兹。
  • 分析师警告伊朗可能采取“动能”回应。
This market reflects escalating tensions in a critical global shipping lane, potentially impacting global oil supplies, trade routes, and regional stability. 该市场反映了全球关键航运通道的紧张局势升级，可能影响全球石油供应、贸易路线和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $5,597 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's assertive claims over Hormuz and warnings of kinetic action against US pressure strongly indicate a high likelihood of future targeting. 伊朗对霍尔木兹的强硬主张及其对美国压力的“动能”回应警告，强烈预示未来袭击的可能性很高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense international diplomatic pressure and de-escalation efforts could prevent Iran from taking direct military action against shipping. 密集的国际外交压力和降级努力可能会阻止伊朗对航运采取直接军事行动。
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500
#2 · Score 534

Japan Q2 GDP Outlook Shifts Higher 日本二季度GDP展望走高

10% -53.0%

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

The probability of Japan's Q2 GDP growth (annualized) falling between 0.0% and 0.8% plummeted by 53.0% to 10%. This sharp decline was driven by new "Economic perspectives August 2026" data suggesting higher growth forecasts for Japan, pushing expectations outside this range. 日本二季度GDP（年化）增速落在0.0%至0.8%区间的概率暴跌53.0%至10%。这一急剧下降主要受“2026年8月经济展望”中日本增长预测走高的影响，使得市场预期超出此范围。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • New Japan GDP forecasts above 0.8%
  • "Economic perspectives August 2026" report
  • Market expects stronger Q2 growth
  • 日本GDP新预测高于0.8%
  • “2026年8月经济展望”报告
  • 市场预期二季度增长强劲
Japan's GDP growth is crucial for its economic policy, particularly regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary stance and global economic stability. 日本GDP增长对其经济政策至关重要，尤其影响日本央行的货币立场及全球经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $11,712 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger-than-expected economic activity or exports could push Q2 GDP significantly above 0.8%. 强于预期的经济活动或出口可能推动二季度GDP远超0.8%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected domestic consumption weakness or a global slowdown could drag Q2 GDP below 0.0%. 意外的国内消费疲软或全球经济放缓可能将二季度GDP拉低至0.0%以下。
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500
#3 · Score 318

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 15? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 15?

97% +31.4%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 15?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $25,179 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 288

BOJ October Rate Pause Gains Traction 日本央行十月暂停加息概率大增

74% +28.5%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

The probability of no change in Bank of Japan's interest rates in October 2026 surged to 74% after the Federal Reserve announced on July 29, 2026, that its benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged. This decision likely eased immediate pressure on the BOJ to hike aggressively, despite prior market expectations for significant tightening by year-end. 日本央行2026年10月会议维持利率不变的概率飙升至74%，此前美联储于2026年7月29日宣布基准利率维持不变。此举可能减轻了日本央行激进加息的即时压力，尽管市场此前预期年底前将大幅收紧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged July 29, 2026.
  • Eased pressure on BOJ to counter rate differentials.
  • Market re-evaluates BOJ's October rate hike necessity.
  • 美联储7月29日维持利率不变。
  • 减轻日本央行应对利差压力。
  • 市场重新评估日本央行加息路径。
This impacts the yen's valuation, Japan's economic outlook, and global capital flows. A pause could signal a more cautious approach to monetary policy. 这将影响日元汇率、日本经济前景及全球资本流动。暂停加息可能预示着货币政策将采取更谨慎的态度。
Vol 24h: $2,442 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Fed's July 29 pause reduces pressure on BOJ, allowing them to hold rates in October and assess economic data. 美联储7月29日暂停加息，减轻了日本央行压力，使其能在10月维持利率并评估经济数据。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued yen depreciation or stronger inflation could compel the BOJ to hike in October despite the Fed's inaction. 日元持续贬值或通胀超预期，可能迫使日本央行在10月加息，即便美联储按兵不动。
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500
#5 · Score 203

Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3B and $3.5B at market close on I Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3B and $3.5B at market close on I

14% -20.0%

Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3B and $3.5B at market close on IPO day?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $1,723 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#6 · Score 193

Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at

31% +19.0%

Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of August 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,707 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#7 · Score 184

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

44% +18.0%

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $4,022 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 164

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9PM ET

66% +16.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $7,884 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 144

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO

64% +14.0%

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

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Vol 24h: $9,296 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 110

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15? Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?

61% +10.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?

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Vol 24h: $142,687 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 108

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15

8% -10.5%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,802 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 104

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

66% +10.0%

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

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Vol 24h: $8,626 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 95

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

14% -9.0%

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $178,890 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 79

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2

70% +7.4%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $40,596 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#15 · Score 79

Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

26% +7.5%

Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $3,420 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 74

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

64% -7.0%

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

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Vol 24h: $24,504 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 70

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?

46% -6.7%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?

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Vol 24h: $926 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 69

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

27% -6.5%

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $16,986 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 64

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August? Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?

18% -6.0%

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?

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Vol 24h: $22,909 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 64

Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I

10% -6.0%

Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?

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Vol 24h: $12,262 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 63

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

88% +6.0%

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $899 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 59

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

22% -5.5%

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

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Vol 24h: $13,356 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 55

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?

2% -5.1%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?

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Vol 24h: $5,131 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 53

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?

22% +5.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,964 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 49

Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

86% -4.5%

Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $22,320 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#26 · Score 49

Ethereum Up or Down on August 15? Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?

56% +4.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?

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Vol 24h: $16,447 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 49

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap

76% -4.5%

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $3,893 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 48

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027

14% +4.5%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $2,668 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 45

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?

42% +4.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $92,198 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 45

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

48% -4.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $77,235 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 19

Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?

12% +1.5%

Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,904 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。