AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 03, 2026 20:43 UTC
#1 · Score 668

Meta $600 Target Surges on AI Optimism Meta 600美元目标因AI乐观情绪飙升

72% +66.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026?

The probability of Meta Platforms (META) hitting $600 by August 2026 jumped to 72% (+66.5%) following an AMD earnings preview. This preview highlighted strong AI chip revenue and the potential for stocks to exceed $600, fueling optimism for AI-driven valuations. Meta Platforms (META) 在2026年8月前达到600美元的概率飙升至72%（+66.5%），此前AMD的财报预览显示AI芯片收入强劲，并暗示股票有望突破600美元。这激发了市场对AI驱动估值的乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AMD's strong AI chip revenue outlook
  • Helios orders boosting AI sector confidence
  • Market linking AI growth to $600 stock valuations
  • AMD强劲的AI芯片收入展望
  • Helios订单提振AI行业信心
  • 市场将AI增长与600美元估值挂钩
This movement reflects increasing investor confidence in the long-term growth potential of major AI players like Meta, despite broader warnings that AI isn't a universal trade. It underscores the market's belief in AI's ability to drive significant valuation increases for key companies. 这一波动反映出投资者对Meta等主要AI公司长期增长潜力的信心日益增强，尽管有警告称AI并非万能。它强调了市场相信AI能够推动关键公司估值大幅增长。
Vol 24h: $1,095 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued robust performance in the AI chip sector, as indicated by AMD's outlook, will propel Meta's AI-driven growth and valuation towards $600. AI芯片领域持续强劲的表现，如AMD展望所示，将推动Meta的AI驱动增长和估值迈向600美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 'AI isn't a catch-all trade' sentiment suggests Meta's AI investments might face specific challenges, preventing universal stock price gains. “AI并非万能交易”的观点表明，Meta的AI投资可能面临特定挑战，无法普遍转化为股价上涨。
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500
#2 · Score 605

MSFT $470 Target Nears on Record Backlog 微软巨额积压订单推高股价

94% +60.2%

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $470 on August 3?

Microsoft's probability to close above $470 on August 3 surged to 94% following strong commercial backlog disclosures. The stock closed at $464.72 on August 2 after news of a record $678 billion commercial backlog. 微软(MSFT)在8月3日收盘价突破470美元的概率飙升至94%，主要受强劲的商业积压订单披露驱动。8月2日，在披露创纪录的6780亿美元商业积压订单后，该股收于464.72美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Record $678 billion commercial backlog disclosed August 2.
  • MSFT closed at $464.72, just $5.28 from $470 target.
  • Shares jumped 21.8% this week, showing strong momentum.
  • 8月2日披露创纪录的6780亿美元商业积压订单。
  • MSFT收盘价464.72美元，距470美元目标仅差5.28美元。
  • 本周股价跳涨21.8%，显示强劲上涨势头。
This reflects strong investor confidence in Microsoft's future revenue streams and continued growth trajectory, potentially signaling broader tech sector strength. 这反映了投资者对微软未来营收和持续增长轨迹的强烈信心，可能预示着更广泛的科技行业走强。
Vol 24h: $5,149 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Record $678 billion commercial backlog signals robust future revenue, easily pushing MSFT above $470 on August 3. 创纪录的6780亿美元商业积压订单预示未来营收强劲，轻松推动MSFT在8月3日突破470美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 MSFT's recent 21.8% weekly jump may lead to profit-taking, preventing it from reaching $470 on August 3. MSFT近期21.8%的周涨幅可能引发获利回吐，使其难以在8月3日达到470美元。
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500
#3 · Score 603

SPY Nears $760 Target Amid Strong Rally SPY逼近760美元目标

82% +60.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of August 3 2026?

The probability of SPY hitting $760 by August 3, 2026, surged to 82% following its close at $747.03 on July 31, 2026. This strong upward momentum, including a 1.1% weekly gain, positions SPY very close to the target. SPY在2026年7月31日收盘价达到747.03美元后，其在2026年8月3日当周触及760美元的概率飙升至82%。这一强劲的上涨势头，包括周涨幅1.1%，使SPY非常接近目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SPY closed at $747.03 on July 31, 2026, just shy of $760.
  • SPY gained 1.1% for the week ending July 31, 2026.
  • SPY trading above its 50-day moving average of $744.99.
  • SPY于2026年7月31日收盘价为747.03美元，接近760美元。
  • 截至2026年7月31日当周，SPY上涨1.1%。
  • SPY交易价格高于其50日移动平均线744.99美元。
This market reflects confidence in continued S&P 500 growth, indicating broader economic optimism as the index approaches new highs. 该市场反映了对标普500指数持续增长的信心，预示着随着指数接近新高，更广泛的经济乐观情绪。
Vol 24h: $2,258 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 SPY's current price of $747.03 and recent strong gains make the $760 target highly achievable within days. SPY当前747.03美元的价格和近期强劲涨势，使760美元目标在几天内极有可能实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any unexpected negative economic data or geopolitical event could trigger a sharp pullback from current highs. 任何意想不到的负面经济数据或地缘政治事件都可能引发从当前高点的急剧回调。
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500
#4 · Score 598

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 Week of August 3 202 Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 Week of August 3 202

100% +59.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,037 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#5 · Score 503

Houthi Attack Odds Plunge 胡塞武装袭击概率骤降

1% -50.0%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 2, 2026?

The probability of Houthis successfully targeting shipping on August 2, 2026, dropped to 1% following their denial on August 1, 2026, of imposing fees on vessels in the Bab al Mandeb Strait. This suggests a reduced immediate threat of Houthi action. 胡塞武装于2026年8月1日否认对途经曼德海峡的船只征收费用后，其在2026年8月2日成功袭击船只的概率降至1%。这表明胡塞武装近期采取行动的威胁有所减弱。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthis denied imposing fees on Bab al Mandeb vessels on Aug 1, 2026.
  • No US strike on Iran's power network, removing a key Houthi action trigger.
  • General low odds for Iran targeting shipping in late August.
  • 胡塞武装于2026年8月1日否认征收曼德海峡船只费用。
  • 美国未袭击伊朗电网，未触发胡塞武装行动条件。
  • 伊朗8月下旬袭击航运的整体赔率较低。
Maritime security in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb is crucial for global trade, and Houthi actions significantly impact shipping routes and insurance costs. 红海和曼德海峡的海上安全对全球贸易至关重要，胡塞武装的行动会显著影响航运路线和保险成本。
Vol 24h: $950 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Houthis launch a surprise attack on August 2, 2026, despite denials, or Iran's conditional threat is activated. 胡塞武装在2026年8月2日突然袭击，或伊朗的条件威胁被激活。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Houthi denial on August 1, 2026, confirms no immediate intent to escalate, making an attack highly improbable. 胡塞武装8月1日的否认表明其无意立即升级，袭击可能性极低。
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500
#6 · Score 475

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1PM ET

98% +47.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1PM ET

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Vol 24h: $23,126 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 469

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 9? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 9?

96% +46.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 9?

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Vol 24h: $9,880 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 430

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

1% -42.4%

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

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Vol 24h: $503,828 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 428

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of August 3 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +42.4%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,390 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#10 · Score 402

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 3 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +40.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $960 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#11 · Score 364

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

60% +36.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

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Vol 24h: $3,281 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 324

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 3? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 3?

100% +31.9%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 3?

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Vol 24h: $32,238 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 323

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?

100% +31.9%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?

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Vol 24h: $76,081 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 323

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of August 3 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of August 3

7% -32.0%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,557 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 323

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of August 3 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +31.9%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,210 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#16 · Score 313

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 3? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 3?

99% +30.9%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 3?

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Vol 24h: $4,500 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 293

Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31? Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31?

6% -29.0%

Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,561 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 293

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of August 3 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of August 3 2026?

74% +29.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $868 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 273

Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by August 31? Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by August 31?

16% -27.0%

Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,061 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 268

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of August 3 2026 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of August 3 2026

14% -26.5%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,101 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 263

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026?

68% +26.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,182 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 260

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?

100% +25.4%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?

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Vol 24h: $262,761 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 259

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

76% +25.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

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Vol 24h: $25,460 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 253

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $155 Week of August 3 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $155 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +24.9%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $155 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,364 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 249

Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch

42% -24.5%

Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,824 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 213

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in August? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in August?

62% +21.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,864 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 209

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 3? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 3?

56% -20.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 3?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $13,588 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 208

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in August? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in August?

76% +20.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,468 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 203

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 in August? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 in August?

100% +20.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,274 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 203

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?

70% +20.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,379 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 180

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July? Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?

20% -17.7%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,326 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。