AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 28, 2026 11:54 UTC
#1 · Score 763

NVDA Selloff Deepens 英伟达抛售加剧

100% +75.9%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of July 27 2026?

NVIDIA shares, recently trading near $205-$210, saw a 100% probability of hitting $196 due to Eddie Ghabour's recent statement confirming an ongoing tech selloff impacting NVDA. This rapid shift reflects heightened market concerns. 英伟达股价近期在205-210美元区间交易，因Eddie Ghabour最新确认科技股抛售潮影响英伟达，导致其触及196美元的概率升至100%。这一快速转变反映了市场担忧加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Eddie Ghabour confirms ongoing tech selloff.
  • NVIDIA shares trading near $205-$210.
  • Unspecified 'heightened' concerns offsetting demand.
  • Eddie Ghabour确认科技股抛售。
  • 英伟达股价目前在205-210美元。
  • 未指明“加剧”因素抵消数据中心需求。
This reflects immediate investor sentiment on a leading AI stock amidst broader tech sector volatility, impacting portfolio strategies. 这反映了在更广泛的科技行业波动中，投资者对领先AI股的即时情绪，影响投资组合策略。
Vol 24h: $1,891 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Eddie Ghabour's recent confirmation of a tech selloff including NVDA strongly suggests the stock will drop from $205-$210 to hit $196. Eddie Ghabour近期确认包括英伟达在内的科技股抛售潮，强烈预示股价将从205-210美元跌至196美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Keybanc's recent Overweight rating and raised price target of $330 for NVDA suggest strong underlying value, making a drop to $196 unlikely. Keybanc近期维持英伟达“增持”评级并将目标价上调至330美元，表明其潜在价值强劲，不太可能跌至196美元。
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500
#2 · Score 689

Bitcoin Range-Bound Confidence Soars 比特币区间震荡信心大增

82% +68.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 28?

The probability of Bitcoin staying between $62,000 and $64,000 by July 28 surged to 82%, primarily driven by CoinEx's Jeff Ko predicting Bitcoin will remain range-bound near $65,000. This outlook is reinforced by broader crypto market stability and potential peak Fed hawkishness. 比特币在7月28日价格维持在62,000至64,000美元之间的可能性飙升至82%，主要受CoinEx的Jeff Ko预测比特币将在65,000美元附近区间震荡的推动。更广泛的加密市场稳定性和美联储鹰派立场可能见顶的预期也强化了这一前景。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CoinEx's Jeff Ko predicts Bitcoin range-bound near $65,000.
  • Ether leading broader crypto market higher, indicating stability.
  • State Street's Doshi suggests Fed hawkishness peaks, aiding risk assets.
  • CoinEx的Jeff Ko预测比特币将在65,000美元附近区间震荡。
  • 以太坊引领加密市场走高，显示出市场稳定性。
  • 道富银行Doshi称美联储鹰派立场见顶，利好风险资产。
This market reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin's short-term price stability amidst evolving macroeconomic conditions and broader crypto trends. It indicates a potential consolidation phase for BTC. 该市场反映了在宏观经济变化和加密货币趋势下，市场对短期比特币价格稳定性的信心增强，预示比特币可能进入盘整阶段。
Vol 24h: $29,178 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Jeff Ko's prediction of Bitcoin staying range-bound near $65,000 strongly supports its price settling within the $62,000-$64,000 range. Jeff Ko预测比特币将在65,000美元附近区间震荡，有力支撑其价格稳定在62,000-64,000美元区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected negative macroeconomic data or a sharp downturn in broader crypto markets could push Bitcoin outside the target range. 意外的负面宏观经济数据或加密市场急剧下跌可能将比特币推离目标区间。
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500
#3 · Score 631

US-Iran Halt Confirmed 美伊停火已确认

100% +62.5%

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

The probability for the US announcing a halt in Iran offensive operations surged to 100% after the US ceased overnight strikes for the first time in 13 days. This de-escalation is reciprocal, with Iran committing to halt its own attacks as long as the US pause holds. 美国暂停对伊朗的空袭，这是13天来的首次，推动美国宣布停止对伊朗进攻行动的概率飙升至100%。伊朗也承诺只要美国暂停轰炸，其将停止袭击，显示出双方的相互克制。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US ceased overnight strikes in Iran for the first time in 13 days.
  • US and Iran paused military actions for a third consecutive night.
  • Iran committed to halt its strikes if the US bombing pause holds.
  • 美国13天来首次停止对伊朗的夜间空袭。
  • 美伊双方连续第三晚暂停军事行动。
  • 伊朗承诺，只要美国暂停轰炸，其将停止袭击。
A sustained halt in US-Iran offensive operations significantly de-escalates regional tensions, potentially opening avenues for diplomatic resolution and preventing broader conflict. This impacts global oil markets and regional stability. 美伊进攻行动的持续停止将显著缓解地区紧张局势，可能为外交解决开辟道路并避免更广泛的冲突。这将影响全球石油市场和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $2,746,986 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The US has already ceased strikes for multiple nights, and Iran has reciprocated, making an official announcement or continued de-escalation by July 31 highly probable. 美国已连续多晚停止空袭，伊朗也已采取对等行动，官方宣布或持续降级在7月31日前极有可能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the current pause, a new incident or breakdown in diplomatic efforts could trigger renewed US offensive operations before July 31. 尽管目前暂停，但新的事件或外交努力的破裂可能在7月31日前引发美国重新发动进攻。
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500
#4 · Score 565

NVIDIA Top Spot Doubt Grows 英伟达市值榜首地位存疑

22% -56.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

NVIDIA's probability of being the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 plummeted by 56% to 22%. This sharp decline was primarily driven by Apple briefly surpassing NVIDIA in market capitalization earlier this month. 英伟达在7月31日成为全球市值最大公司的可能性骤降56%至22%。此次大幅下跌主要受苹果本月早些时候短暂超越英伟达市值事件驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple briefly overtook NVIDIA in market cap.
  • Increased competition for the top market cap spot.
  • NVIDIA's year-to-date stock growth slowing to 11%.
  • 苹果市值短暂超越英伟达。
  • 全球市值榜首竞争加剧。
  • 英伟达今年迄今股价增长放缓至11%。
This market reflects the intense competition among tech giants for market dominance and investor confidence in the AI sector's long-term leaders. 该市场反映了科技巨头之间争夺市场主导地位的激烈竞争，以及投资者对AI领域长期领导者的信心。
Vol 24h: $147,439 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVIDIA's strong position in AI chips and upcoming earnings could propel its market cap back to the top. 英伟达在AI芯片领域的强大地位及即将到来的财报有望助其市值重回榜首。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Apple's strong ecosystem and potential for AI integration pose a significant, ongoing threat to NVIDIA's market cap lead. 苹果强大的生态系统和AI整合潜力对英伟达的市值领先地位构成重大持续威胁。
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500
#5 · Score 463

Palantir AI Outlook Improves, Low Price Less Likely Palantir AI前景改善，低价可能性降低

38% -46.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability of Palantir hitting $123 by July 2026 significantly decreased by 46%, primarily driven by a Motley Fool article comparing Palantir favorably against ServiceNow. This suggests renewed confidence in Palantir's AI software capabilities. Palantir在2026年7月前触及123美元低点的可能性大幅下降46%，主要受Motley Fool一篇将Palantir与ServiceNow进行有利比较的文章驱动。这表明市场对Palantir的AI软件能力重拾信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Motley Fool article "Better AI Software Stock" implicitly favoring Palantir.
  • ServiceNow's 51% stock decline, highlighting Palantir's potential resilience.
  • Increased investor confidence in Palantir's long-term AI growth trajectory.
  • Motley Fool文章“更好的AI软件股票”暗示Palantir更具优势。
  • ServiceNow股价下跌51%，凸显Palantir潜在的韧性。
  • 投资者对Palantir长期AI增长轨迹的信心增强。
Palantir's performance is a key indicator for the competitive and rapidly evolving AI software market. Palantir的表现是竞争激烈且快速发展的AI软件市场的关键指标。
Vol 24h: $1,649 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Intense AI competition or a broader tech downturn could significantly depress Palantir's valuation. 激烈的AI竞争或更广泛的科技衰退可能大幅压低Palantir估值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Palantir secures major government and commercial AI contracts, driving robust revenue growth. Palantir获得重大政府和商业AI合同，推动强劲营收增长。
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500
#6 · Score 455

ETH Down: Fed Decision Looms 以太坊下跌：美联储决议临近

4% -45.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?

The probability of Ethereum being up on July 28th plummeted as ETH is currently down 3.35% today. This decline is largely driven by institutional investors recalibrating portfolios ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy decision. 以太坊在7月28日下跌3.35%，导致其当日上涨的概率大幅下降。此次下跌主要受机构投资者在美联储7月28-29日政策会议前调整投资组合的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ethereum (ETHUSD) down 3.35% on July 28.
  • Anticipation of Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting.
  • Weakening Ethereum ETF inflows and outflows.
  • Broader crypto market slide; Bitcoin failed $67,000.
  • 以太坊（ETHUSD）7月28日下跌3.35%。
  • 市场对美联储7月28-29日会议的预期。
  • 以太坊ETF资金流入减弱并出现流出。
  • 加密市场普遍下滑，比特币未能守住67,000美元。
Ethereum's performance is a key indicator for the broader altcoin market and reflects institutional appetite for risk assets. The Fed's stance will dictate market direction. 以太坊的表现是山寨币市场的关键指标，反映机构对风险资产的偏好。美联储的立场将决定市场走向。
Vol 24h: $32,171 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A positive surprise from the Federal Reserve's policy decision or a sudden surge in ETF inflows could reverse the trend. 美联储政策决议若有积极惊喜，或ETF资金突然流入，可能扭转当前跌势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued institutional recalibration and uncertainty surrounding the Fed meeting will likely maintain downward pressure on ETH. 机构持续调整投资组合及美联储会议的不确定性，可能继续对以太坊施加下行压力。
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500
#7 · Score 454

Micron $840 Target Probability Surges 美光840美元目标概率飙升

78% +45.0%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability for Micron Technology (MU) to hit $840 by July 27, 2026, surged by 45 percentage points to 78% following highly bullish long-term price forecasts. A key driver was a specific forecast predicting MU to reach $912.36 by July 31, 2026. 美光科技(MU)在2026年7月27日前达到840美元的概率飙升45个百分点至78%，主要受高度看涨的长期价格预测推动。其中一个关键驱动因素是预测MU在2026年7月31日将达到912.36美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 2026 target price forecast of $912.36 for MU.
  • Predictions of MU returning to all-time highs soon.
  • Positive dynamics and low volatility forecast for MU shares.
  • MU 2026年目标价预测为912.36美元。
  • 预测MU股价将很快重回历史高点。
  • MU股价积极走势及低波动预测。
Micron's stock performance reflects the health of the global semiconductor memory market, vital for AI and computing infrastructure. 美光股价表现反映全球半导体存储市场健康状况，对人工智能和计算基础设施至关重要。
Vol 24h: $3,138 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A specific 2026 forecast of $912.36 makes the $840 target highly achievable, driven by strong demand for memory. 2026年912.36美元的具体预测使840美元目标极有可能实现，受内存强劲需求驱动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Short-term negative signals and potential market volatility could impede consistent growth, preventing MU from reaching $840. 短期负面信号和潜在市场波动可能阻碍持续增长，导致MU未能达到840美元。
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500
#8 · Score 435

Fed Fears Drive Bitcoin Down 联储担忧致比特币下跌

6% -43.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?

Bitcoin's "Up" probability for July 28 plummeted to 6% as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting. Concerns over potential rate hikes and tightening global liquidity are driving institutional risk aversion, with Bitcoin already down 2.49% today. 比特币7月28日上涨概率暴跌至6%，市场正密切关注美联储7月28-29日的会议。对潜在加息和全球流动性收紧的担忧，正导致机构规避风险，比特币今日已下跌2.49%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Federal Reserve July 28-29 meeting anticipation.
  • Rising odds of a Fed rate hike.
  • Tightening global liquidity, institutional risk aversion.
  • Bitcoin already down 2.49% on July 28.
  • 美联储7月28-29日会议预期。
  • 美联储加息预期升温。
  • 全球流动性收紧及机构风险规避。
  • 比特币今日已下跌2.49%。
The Fed's stance on interest rates significantly impacts risk asset valuations, including cryptocurrencies. This market reflects immediate investor sentiment towards monetary policy. 美联储的利率立场显著影响包括加密货币在内的风险资产估值。该市场反映了投资者对货币政策的即时情绪。
Vol 24h: $113,603 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Easing geopolitical risks and a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve could spark a rapid rebound. 地缘政治风险缓解或美联储鸽派意外可能引发快速反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A hawkish Fed stance or further tightening of liquidity will continue to depress Bitcoin prices. 美联储鹰派立场或流动性进一步收紧将继续压低比特币价格。
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500
#9 · Score 408

WTI Plunges Below $80 Target WTI油价跌破80美元目标

100% +40.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of July 27 2026?

WTI crude oil's probability of hitting a low of $80 during the week of July 27, 2026, surged to 100% after reports confirmed prices dropped significantly under $84. This sharp decline was primarily driven by the US pausing strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and reducing oil's risk premium. 2026年7月27日当周，WTI原油触及80美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前有报道称油价已大幅跌至84美元以下。此次急剧下跌主要受美国暂停对伊朗的打击行动驱动，缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，降低了原油风险溢价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US pauses strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical risk.
  • WTI crude reported down 7% to under $84.
  • Oil prices drop over 5% due to de-escalation hopes.
  • 美国暂停打击伊朗，地缘政治风险缓解。
  • WTI原油下跌7%，跌至84美元以下。
  • 地缘政治缓和预期致油价下跌超5%。
A sustained drop in WTI below $80 could signal global economic slowdown concerns, impact energy sector profitability, and influence inflation trends. WTI油价持续跌破80美元可能预示全球经济放缓，影响能源行业盈利能力及通胀趋势。
Vol 24h: $7,161 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued geopolitical de-escalation and weak global demand outlook will keep WTI firmly below $80 this week. 地缘政治持续缓和及全球需求疲软将使WTI本周稳定在80美元以下。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Renewed Middle East tensions or unexpected OPEC+ supply cuts could swiftly push WTI back above $80. 中东局势再趋紧张或OPEC+意外减产可能迅速推高WTI至80美元以上。
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500
#10 · Score 379

Bitcoin Probability Dips on Stagnant Investor Interest 比特币突破6.4万概率骤降

37% -37.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 30?

The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $64,000 by July 30 plummeted by 37.5% as investors showed little response to Trump's pro-crypto stance and analysts predicted range-bound trading. 投资者对特朗普的加密货币支持反应平淡，加之分析师预测比特币将区间震荡，导致其在7月30日前突破6.4万美元的概率骤降37.5%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Investors ignore Trump's Bitcoin advocacy.
  • CoinEx's Jeff Ko predicts Bitcoin range-bound near $65,000.
  • High 4.7% 10-year yield reduces risk asset appeal.
  • 投资者未响应特朗普的比特币倡议。
  • CoinEx的Jeff Ko预测比特币将在6.5万美元附近区间震荡。
  • 4.7%的10年期国债收益率降低风险资产吸引力。
This movement highlights Bitcoin's struggle to find immediate bullish catalysts despite political endorsements and long-term optimistic outlooks, signaling a period of consolidation. 此次波动表明，尽管有政治背书和长期乐观前景，比特币仍难以找到即时看涨催化剂，预示着一段盘整期。
Vol 24h: $12,108 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could sustain its position above $64,000 if it holds the $65,000 range predicted by CoinEx's Jeff Ko. 若比特币能维持CoinEx的Jeff Ko预测的6.5万美元区间，则有望保持在6.4万美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Investor apathy to political pushes and persistent high yields could keep Bitcoin below $64,000. 投资者对政治推动的冷淡反应和持续高企的收益率可能使比特币维持在6.4万美元以下。
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500
#11 · Score 378

Gold $4,150 High Probability Plunges 黄金触及4150美元概率骤降

26% -37.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability for Gold (XAUUSD) hitting $4,150 this week dropped sharply to 26%, despite reports of spot prices regaining $4,100 and rising. This decline suggests market skepticism about the rally's sustainability and the direct relevance of high futures prices to the immediate spot high. 尽管有报道称现货黄金价格已重回4100美元并大幅上涨，但黄金（XAUUSD）本周触及4150美元高点的概率却骤降至26%。这表明市场对当前涨势的持续性以及高期货价格与即期现货高点关联性持怀疑态度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Skepticism on XAUUSD spot rally reaching $4,150.
  • Market discounting $4,713.3 gold futures price.
  • Anticipation of immediate price reversal below target.
  • 市场怀疑XAUUSD现货涨势能否触及4150美元。
  • 市场不看重4713.3美元黄金期货价格。
  • 预期金价在上涨后可能迅速反转。
Gold's price trajectory impacts inflation expectations, safe-haven demand, and broader commodity market sentiment, influencing investor asset allocation decisions. 黄金价格走势影响通胀预期、避险需求及大宗商品市场情绪，进而影响投资者资产配置。
Vol 24h: $2,119 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Gold's sharp rise to $4,100 and State Street's Doshi's bullish outlook suggest strong upward momentum could easily push it past $4,150. 黄金飙升至4100美元及道富银行Doshi的看涨观点，预示强劲上涨动能可轻松突破4150美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current gains, market skepticism and potential for quick reversals indicate XAUUSD may struggle to establish $4,150 as the week's high. 尽管当前上涨，市场疑虑和快速反转的可能性表明XAUUSD难以将4150美元确立为本周高点。
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500
#12 · Score 373

Tesla's 2026 Outlook Drives Price Confidence 特斯拉2026年前景提振股价信心

74% +37.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting $300 by July 2026 surged 37% as forward-looking news suggests a strong future, notably Elon Musk's projected "trillionaire" status by that date. This positive outlook overshadows recent negative reports like Q2 earnings misses and Cybertruck struggles. 特斯拉股价在2026年7月前达到300美元的可能性飙升37%，主要受前瞻性利好消息驱动，尤其是埃隆·马斯克届时有望成为“万亿富翁”。这积极前景盖过了近期负面消息，如第二季度财报不及预期和Cybertruck表现不佳。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Elon Musk projected "trillionaire" status by July 2026.
  • Tesla stock gains on positive 2026 production reset.
  • Market's focus shifted to Tesla's strong future potential.
  • 埃隆·马斯克预计在2026年7月成为“万亿富翁”。
  • 特斯拉股价因2026年生产计划重置而上涨。
  • 市场焦点转向特斯拉强劲的未来潜力。
This movement indicates investors are pricing in a significant future turnaround for Tesla, potentially driven by new products or market dominance, despite current challenges. 这一变化表明投资者正在消化特斯拉未来可能出现的重大转机，即便当前面临挑战，也可能由新产品或市场主导地位推动。
Vol 24h: $2,692 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Elon Musk's projected "trillionaire" status by July 2026 implies a much higher TSLA valuation, making $300 highly achievable. 埃隆·马斯克在2026年7月成为“万亿富翁”的预测，暗示特斯拉估值将大幅提升，300美元目标极易实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Current struggles like Q2 earnings miss and Cybertruck flop could persist, hindering future growth and price recovery. 第二季度财报不及预期和Cybertruck表现不佳等当前困境可能持续，阻碍未来增长和股价复苏。
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500
#13 · Score 353

Ether Rally Propels COIN to $160 Target 以太坊上涨推高COIN至160美元目标

100% +34.9%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability of COIN hitting $160 by July 27, 2026, surged to 100% following news that Ether is leading a broader crypto market rally. This strong performance on the target date significantly boosted confidence in Coinbase's revenue prospects. 随着以太坊引领加密货币市场全面上涨，COIN在2026年7月27日达到160美元的概率飙升至100%。目标日期当天强劲的市场表现极大地提振了对Coinbase收入前景的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ether leads crypto market higher on July 27, 2026.
  • Strong broader crypto market performance indicated by Ether.
  • Bitcoin's stability near $65,000 provides market floor.
  • 2026年7月27日以太坊领涨加密市场。
  • 以太坊表现预示加密市场整体强劲。
  • 比特币稳定在65,000美元附近提供市场支撑。
A robust crypto market directly translates to increased trading volumes and transaction fees for Coinbase, underpinning its financial performance and stock valuation. This indicates strong investor confidence in the long-term viability of digital assets. 强劲的加密货币市场直接转化为Coinbase交易量和手续费的增加，支撑其财务表现和股票估值。这表明投资者对数字资产的长期可行性充满信心。
Vol 24h: $2,185 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained crypto market growth, particularly Ether's rally, will drive Coinbase's trading volumes and revenue past expectations. 加密市场持续增长，尤其以太坊的上涨，将推动Coinbase交易量和收入超预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden crypto market downturn or increased regulatory scrutiny could quickly reverse Coinbase's positive momentum. 加密市场突然下跌或监管审查加强，可能迅速逆转Coinbase的积极势头。
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500
#14 · Score 348

Meta $600 Target Imminent on AI Strength Meta股价逼近600美元，AI前景看好

100% +34.4%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability for Meta hitting $600 by July 2026 surged to 100% as its stock price reached $593.87, just shy of the target. This movement was primarily driven by strong investor confidence in Meta's AI investments and a bullish endorsement from analyst Louis Navellier. 预测Meta在2026年7月前达到600美元的概率飙升至100%，因其股价已达593.87美元，非常接近目标。此举主要受投资者对Meta人工智能投资的强烈信心以及分析师Louis Navellier的看好推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta stock price at $593.87, near $600 target.
  • Positive outlook on Meta's AI investments/capex.
  • Louis Navellier names Meta #1 AI stock for 2026.
  • Meta股价已达593.87美元，逼近600美元目标。
  • 市场对Meta人工智能投资前景持乐观态度。
  • Louis Navellier将Meta列为2026年首选AI股。
This indicates strong market conviction in Meta's long-term growth trajectory, particularly its leadership in AI, which could redefine its valuation. 这表明市场对Meta的长期增长轨迹，特别是其在人工智能领域的领导地位，抱有强烈信心，可能重塑其估值。
Vol 24h: $2,842 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Meta's current price near $600, coupled with robust AI investment and analyst endorsement, makes hitting the target by 2026 highly probable. Meta股价已接近600美元，加上强劲的AI投资和分析师支持，2026年实现目标可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen regulatory challenges or a significant slowdown in AI monetization could hinder Meta's growth trajectory. 未预见的监管挑战或AI变现大幅放缓可能阻碍Meta的增长轨迹。
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500
#15 · Score 329

AI Investment Shifts Crypto Focus AI投资转移加密市场焦点

44% -32.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 31?

The probability of Ethereum exceeding $1,900 by July 31 plummeted by 32.5% to 44%, largely driven by Amazon's substantial $13 billion investment in AI firm Anthropic. This significant capital allocation into a competing tech sector likely diverted investor capital away from the crypto market. 以太坊在7月31日突破1900美元的概率暴跌32.5%至44%，主要受亚马逊向AI公司Anthropic投资130亿美元的事件驱动。这笔对竞争性科技领域的巨额资本投入，可能转移了投资者的资金，从而影响了加密市场。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Amazon's $13B Anthropic investment
  • Increased competition for speculative capital
  • Absence of direct positive Ethereum catalysts
  • 亚马逊投资Anthropic 130亿美元
  • AI领域对投机资本的竞争加剧
  • 缺乏以太坊直接利好消息
This movement highlights how major investments in other high-growth tech sectors, like AI, can significantly influence capital allocation decisions in the crypto market. It underscores the competitive landscape for speculative capital. 这一波动凸显了其他高增长科技领域（如AI）的重大投资如何显著影响加密市场的资金配置决策。它强调了投机资本的竞争格局。
Vol 24h: $26,219 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Peaking Fed hawkishness could improve risk asset appetite, potentially boosting Ethereum's price above $1,900. 美联储鹰派立场见顶可能提振风险资产偏好，从而推高以太坊价格突破1900美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Significant capital outflow to AI and lack of direct positive Ethereum catalysts will keep price below $1,900. 大量资金流向AI领域且缺乏以太坊利好催化剂，将使价格保持在1900美元以下。
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500
#16 · Score 323

SPY $735 Target Probability Surges SPY触及735美元概率飙升

78% +32.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability of SPY hitting at least $735 during the week of July 27, 2026, surged by 32% to 78%. This increase was driven by a strong 94% 'Up' forecast for the S&P 500's opening on July 27 and Polymarket's bullish predictions for targets well above $735. SPY在2026年7月27日当周触及至少735美元的概率飙升32%至78%。这一增长主要受标普500在7月27日开盘94%看涨预报和Polymarket对远高于735美元目标的看涨预测驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 94% S&P 500 'Up' open forecast
  • Polymarket odds favor targets above $735
  • High implied volatility (22.55%)
  • 标普500开盘94%看涨预报
  • Polymarket预测高于735美元
  • 高隐含波动率(22.55%)
This indicates strong market confidence in continued S&P 500 growth, reflecting broader economic optimism for mid-2026. 这表明市场对标普500持续增长充满信心，反映了2026年中期更广泛的经济乐观情绪。
Vol 24h: $1,491 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelming bullish sentiment and high Polymarket odds for higher targets make $735 a very likely low for the week. 压倒性看涨情绪和Polymarket对更高目标的预测使735美元成为该周的极可能低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite optimism, high volatility could trigger unexpected drops, preventing SPY from reaching or sustaining $735. 尽管乐观，高波动性可能引发意外下跌，阻止SPY达到或维持735美元。
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500
#17 · Score 323

AMZN Confirmed $232 High 亚马逊确认触及232美元高点

100% +31.9%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of July 27 2026?

The probability for AMZN hitting $232 this week surged to 100% after the stock price reached $232.11 on Monday, July 27, 2026. This confirmed high, reported by financial news, directly fulfilled the market condition. 亚马逊股价在本周（2026年7月27日当周）触及232美元的概率飙升至100%，因其在2026年7月27日周一达到232.11美元的高点。这一经金融新闻报道的确认，直接满足了市场条件。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AMZN's daily high of $232.11 on July 27, 2026
  • Direct confirmation of market condition met
  • Financial news reporting the price action
  • 亚马逊2026年7月27日盘中高点232.11美元
  • 市场条件已明确达成
  • 金融新闻确认股价走势
This outcome demonstrates the immediate impact of confirmed price data on prediction market probabilities, highlighting the importance of real-time financial reporting for market resolution. 这一结果表明已确认的价格数据对预测市场概率的即时影响，突显了实时财务报告对市场结算的重要性。
Vol 24h: $2,613 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 AMZN's confirmed high of $232.11 on July 27, 2026, definitively fulfills the market condition, justifying the 100% probability. 亚马逊2026年7月27日确认触及232.11美元高点，明确满足市场条件，支撑100%概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Only a retraction or correction of AMZN's reported daily high for July 27, 2026, could lower the probability from 100%. 除非2026年7月27日亚马逊报告的日高点数据被撤回或修正，否则概率不会低于100%。
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500
#18 · Score 314

Iran-US De-escalation Eases Oil Reserve Concerns 伊朗美国局势缓和，油储担忧减轻

54% -31.0%

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

The probability of US crude oil reserves falling to 285M by August 31 decreased by 31% to 54%. This significant drop was driven by the de-escalation of tensions between Iran and the US over the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the Financial Times. 美国原油储备在8月31日前降至2.85亿桶的概率下降了31%至54%。这一显著下降的主要驱动因素是《金融时报》报道的伊朗与美国在霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势的缓和。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran-US tensions pause over Strait of Hormuz
  • Reduced risk of global oil supply disruptions
  • Falling oil prices due to de-escalation
  • 伊朗与美国暂停霍尔木兹海峡冲突
  • 全球石油供应中断风险降低
  • 局势缓和导致油价下跌
Stable oil reserves are crucial for energy security and economic stability, as significant drawdowns can signal supply crises or geopolitical instability. 稳定的石油储备对能源安全和经济稳定至关重要，大幅下降可能预示供应危机或地缘政治不稳定。
Vol 24h: $3,653 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed geopolitical tensions or unexpected demand surges could rapidly deplete US crude oil reserves. 地缘政治紧张局势重燃或需求意外激增可能迅速耗尽美国原油储备。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued de-escalation and stable global supply will prevent US crude oil reserves from falling. 持续的局势缓和及稳定的全球供应将阻止美国原油储备大幅下降。
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500
#19 · Score 293

EWY $166 Target Imminent EWY将达166美元目标

100% +28.9%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 Week of July 27 2026?

EWY's probability to hit $166 by July 27, 2026, surged to 100%, driven by overwhelming confidence in South Korea's robust semiconductor sector despite a recent daily price dip to $162.96. The market anticipates a rapid rebound fueled by strong chip demand. 尽管EWY近期日跌至162.96美元，但其在2026年7月27日当周触及166美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受韩国半导体行业强劲需求驱动。市场预期芯片需求将推动其迅速反弹。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Surging demand for South Korean memory chips from Samsung.
  • Record chip exports driving a semiconductor-led rally.
  • EWY's robust 76% YTD gains as of July 23, 2026.
  • Market belief in quick rebound from $162.96 to $166 target.
  • 三星内存芯片需求激增。
  • 芯片出口创纪录，推动半导体反弹。
  • 截至2026年7月23日，EWY年内回报率达76%。
  • 市场相信EWY将从162.96美元迅速反弹至166美元。
This reflects the critical role of South Korea's tech industry in the global economy and the significant impact of AI-driven chip demand on national growth. 这反映了韩国科技产业在全球经济中的关键作用，以及AI驱动的芯片需求对国家增长的重大影响。
Vol 24h: $2,574 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained global demand for AI-related memory chips will quickly propel EWY past $166. 全球对AI相关内存芯片的持续需求将迅速推动EWY突破166美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A broader market correction or unexpected chip supply glut could prevent EWY from reaching $166. 市场大范围回调或芯片供应意外过剩可能阻止EWY达到166美元。
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500
#20 · Score 283

MSFT Hits 100% Probability for $382.50 微软股价达382.50美元概率100%

100% +28.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of July 27 2026?

Microsoft's (MSFT) probability to hit $382.50 by the week of July 27, 2026, surged to 100% due to strong historical performance and recent bullish forecasts. The stock previously reached $392.20 on March 7, 2026, already surpassing the target price. 微软(MSFT)在2026年7月27日当周触及382.50美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受历史表现强劲和近期看涨预测推动。该股在2026年3月7日已达到392.20美元，超过了目标价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • MSFT hit $392.20 on March 7, 2026, exceeding the target.
  • 'Stock Advisor' predicts MSFT will go parabolic after July 29.
  • AI analyst from TipRanks recommends MSFT for best ETFs.
  • 微软2026年3月7日已达392.20美元，超越目标。
  • “股票顾问”预测微软股价在7月29日后将抛物线上涨。
  • TipRanks的AI分析师推荐微软为最佳ETF投资。
This indicates strong investor confidence in Microsoft's continued growth and market leadership in the tech sector. The target being already met historically reinforces its stability. 这表明投资者对微软在科技领域的持续增长和市场领导地位充满信心。历史数据已达目标价进一步巩固了其稳定性。
Vol 24h: $2,418 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Historical data shows MSFT already surpassed $382.50, combined with strong analyst predictions for parabolic growth. 历史数据显示微软已超越382.50美元，加上分析师预测股价将抛物线上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen market downturns or company-specific negative news could prevent the stock from maintaining its high. 突发市场下行或公司负面消息可能导致股价无法维持高位。
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500
#21 · Score 273

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of July 27 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +27.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of July 27 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,180 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 242

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of July 27 2026? Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +23.9%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of July 27 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $776 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 242

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

59% +23.8%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,252 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 225

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in July? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in July?

65% +22.2%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in July?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,220 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 208

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?

5% -20.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,434 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 198

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?

26% +19.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?

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Vol 24h: $2,114 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 184

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 an Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 an

2% -18.1%

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $2,103 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 159

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on

50% -15.5%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $11,183 Polymarket ↗
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500
#29 · Score 154

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S

70% +15.0%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Expecting property name enclosed in double quotes: line 14 column 3 (char 1141)
  • Expecting property name enclosed in double quotes: line 14 column 3 (char 1141)
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $15,981 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#30 · Score 154

Bitcoin Probability Dips on Miner Exodus 比特币概率下降：矿工转向

74% -15.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?

Bitcoin's probability of staying above $62,000 by August 1 dropped 15% to 74%, primarily driven by reports of miners diverting capital to $19 billion in AI deals. Macroeconomic concerns, including a 4.7% 10-year yield, also contributed to the decline. 比特币在8月1日前维持62,000美元以上的概率下降15%至74%，主要受矿工将资金转向190亿美元AI交易的报道影响。4.7%的10年期国债收益率等宏观经济担忧也加剧了跌幅。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Miners diverting capital to $19 billion AI deals.
  • Macroeconomic concerns from 4.7% 10-year yield.
  • Expert view of Bitcoin staying range-bound near $65,000.
  • 矿工将资金转向190亿美元AI交易。
  • 4.7%的10年期国债收益率引发宏观担忧。
  • 专家认为比特币将在65,000美元附近盘整。
A shift in miner capital to AI could impact Bitcoin network security and long-term investment sentiment, signaling alternative opportunities. 矿工资本转向AI可能影响比特币网络安全和长期投资情绪，预示着新的投资机会。
Vol 24h: $6,873 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Potential 16% mining difficulty reduction and long-term bullish outlook from Elon Musk could drive prices higher. 潜在的16%挖矿难度下调和埃隆·马斯克的长期看好言论可能推高价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Miners shifting to AI deals and broader macro headwinds like high bond yields could push Bitcoin below $62,000. 矿工转向AI交易以及高债券收益率等宏观逆风可能将比特币推至62,000美元以下。
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#31 · Score 90

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026

34% -8.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $39,074 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。