AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 21, 2026 17:42 UTC
#1 · Score 948

Tesla $360 Target: Sudden Certainty 特斯拉360美元：突然确定

100% +94.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 17 2026?

This prediction market for TSLA hitting $360 by August 2026 surged to 100% probability from 5.5% in 24 hours, defying recent 'Wall Street Is Divided' sentiment. This extreme shift suggests a strong, unstated catalyst has convinced participants of near certainty. 特斯拉股价在2026年8月前触及360美元的预测市场，在24小时内从5.5%飙升至100%，与近期“华尔街分歧”的观点相悖。这种极端转变表明存在一个强劲但未公开的催化剂，使参与者确信几乎必然会实现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Unstated major Tesla product/AI breakthrough.
  • Sudden institutional investor sentiment shift.
  • Large, confident prediction market trades.
  • 特斯拉未公布的重大产品/AI突破。
  • 机构投资者情绪突然转向乐观。
  • 预测市场出现大额高信心交易。
This market's extreme conviction contrasts sharply with general analyst division, indicating a potential divergence in information or a highly specific, confident bet on Tesla's future. 该市场的高度确信与分析师普遍分歧形成鲜明对比，预示着信息可能存在差异或对特斯拉未来有高度信心。
Vol 24h: $2,396 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Widespread FSD/Robotaxi deployment or a new low-cost EV model could rapidly drive TSLA past $360 by 2026. FSD/Robotaxi广泛部署或新低成本电动车推出，可迅速推动特斯拉在2026年前突破360美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense EV competition, regulatory hurdles, or FSD delays could prevent TSLA from reaching $360 by the deadline. 激烈的电动车竞争、监管障碍或FSD延迟，可能阻止特斯拉在截止日期前达到360美元。
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500
#2 · Score 939

XRP $1.40 August: Bitcoin Rally Fuels Certainty XRP八月触及$1.40：比特币飙升推高确定性

100% +93.3%

Will XRP reach $1.40 in August?

The probability of XRP reaching $1.40 in August surged to 100% as Bitcoin rallied over 11% to multi-month highs. This broad crypto market momentum, fueled by efforts for the Clarity Act, is driving altcoin optimism. XRP八月达到$1.40的概率飙升至100%，主要受比特币两天内上涨11%并创下数月新高驱动。这种由《澄清法案》努力推动的广泛加密市场势头，正在提振山寨币的乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's 11% surge to $72,950.
  • Trump, crypto execs push Clarity Act.
  • Broader altcoin market follows BTC rally.
  • 比特币两天内飙升11%至$72,950。
  • 特朗普及加密高管推动《澄清法案》。
  • 山寨币市场普遍跟随比特币上涨。
XRP's potential surge reflects renewed investor confidence in the crypto market's regulatory future and its ability to sustain rallies beyond Bitcoin. XRP的潜在上涨反映了投资者对加密市场监管前景的信心重燃，以及其超越比特币持续上涨的能力。
Vol 24h: $571,292 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained Bitcoin momentum and positive regulatory news for the broader crypto market will propel XRP past $1.40. 比特币持续上涨势头和利好监管消息将推动XRP突破$1.40。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden Bitcoin price correction or negative XRP-specific news could quickly reverse current bullish sentiment. 比特币价格突然回调或XRP特有负面消息可能迅速逆转当前看涨情绪。
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500
#3 · Score 936

Bitcoin $78K Target Hits 100% 比特币7.8万美元目标达100%

100% +93.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?

The probability for Bitcoin reaching $78,000 by August 23 surged to 100%, driven by the "What price will Bitcoin hit on August 21?" market assigning a 100% chance to Bitcoin hitting "↑ 75,000". This strong signal for $75,000 by August 21 likely propelled confidence for the slightly higher $78,000 target within a similar timeframe. 比特币在8月23日前达到7.8万美元的概率飙升至100%，主要驱动因素是“比特币8月21日将达到什么价格？”市场对“↑ 75,000”的预测也达到了100%。这一关于8月21日达到7.5万美元的强烈信号，可能推动了市场对相近时间段内更高目标7.8万美元的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "↑ 75,000 on August 21" market at 100% probability
  • Extrapolation of strong upward momentum for BTC
  • Significant capital inflow into $78,000 market
  • “比特币8月21日达7.5万美元”市场达100%概率
  • 对BTC强劲上涨势头的推断
  • 大量资金流入7.8万美元市场
This indicates a highly confident market expectation of significant short-term Bitcoin price appreciation, potentially signaling a broader rally. 这表明市场对短期内比特币价格大幅上涨抱有极高信心，可能预示着更广泛的上涨行情。
Vol 24h: $108,093 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The market's 100% confidence in Bitcoin reaching $75,000 by August 21 strongly suggests continued upward momentum towards $78,000. 市场对8月21日前比特币达到7.5万美元的100%信心，强烈预示其将继续上涨至7.8万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 100% probability might reflect an over-extrapolation from the $75,000 market, making the $78,000 target vulnerable to any price consolidation. 100%的概率可能过度推断了7.5万美元市场，使7.8万美元目标易受任何价格盘整影响。
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500
#4 · Score 819

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of August 17 2026? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +81.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $5,843 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 717

Bitcoin Surges Past $74K 比特币突破7.4万美元

95% +71.3%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?

Bitcoin's probability of staying above $74,000 by August 23 surged to 95% following its explosive rally past this key level on August 21. This rally, driven by renewed investor appetite, directly addresses the market condition. 比特币在8月21日强劲突破7.4万美元，导致其在8月23日前维持在该水平之上的概率飙升至95%。这一涨势直接证实了市场条件，并重燃投资者兴趣。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's explosive rally above $74,000 on August 21.
  • Crypto analyst Ted identifying $74,000 as a critical level.
  • Capital concentrating in Bitcoin, boosting its market dominance.
  • 比特币于8月21日强劲突破7.4万美元。
  • 分析师Ted将7.4万美元视为关键水平。
  • 资金集中流入比特币，提升其市场主导地位。
Bitcoin holding above $74,000 is seen as a crucial indicator for its next price target, potentially signaling a push towards $80,000 or even $100,000. It reflects strong investor confidence in BTC. 比特币能否守住7.4万美元被视为其迈向8万美元甚至10万美元的关键信号，反映了投资者对其的强大信心。
Vol 24h: $29,400 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's recent decisive break and hold above $74,000, coupled with capital inflow, strongly suggests it will remain above this level. 比特币已果断突破并守住7.4万美元，加上资金流入，极有可能维持在该水平之上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A "warning sign" for the push to $80K, or unexpected negative news, could trigger a sharp reversal below $74,000. 针对8万美元的“警告信号”或突发利空消息，可能导致比特币价格迅速跌破7.4万美元。
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500
#6 · Score 674

Will Solana reach $90 August 17-23? Will Solana reach $90 August 17-23?

100% +67.0%

Will Solana reach $90 August 17-23?

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Vol 24h: $10,971 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 649

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on August 21? Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on August 21?

2% -64.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $1,161 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 563

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August

100% +56.0%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $7,007 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 531

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in August? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in August?

100% +52.8%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,352 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 504

Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?

100% +50.0%

Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?

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Vol 24h: $10,005 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#11 · Score 498

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August?

100% +49.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August?

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Vol 24h: $4,154 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 492

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 21? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 21?

99% +48.9%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $5,557 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 492

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August? Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

100% +48.7%

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

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Vol 24h: $38,220 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 489

Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026? Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?

92% +48.5%

Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,390 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 488

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?

100% +48.4%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?

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Vol 24h: $36,187 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 485

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21?

98% +48.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $68,229 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 474

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 17 above $180? Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 17 above $180?

65% +47.0%

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of August 17 above $180?

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Vol 24h: $2,200 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 473

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?

51% +47.0%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $760 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 473

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15 Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15

100% +46.9%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $50,660 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 468

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

61% +46.2%

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

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Vol 24h: $402,138 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 458

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August

100% +45.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,091 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#22 · Score 433

Will Meta (META) close at $550-$560 on the final day of trading of the Will Meta (META) close at $550-$560 on the final day of trading of the

64% +43.0%

Will Meta (META) close at $550-$560 on the final day of trading of the week of Aug 17 – Aug 21?

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Vol 24h: $2,538 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 431

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 21? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 21?

97% +42.7%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $17,656 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 425

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on August 22? Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on August 22?

99% +42.1%

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on August 22?

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Vol 24h: $10,223 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 424

Meta (META) Up or Down on August 21? Meta (META) Up or Down on August 21?

94% +42.0%

Meta (META) Up or Down on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $3,246 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 370

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of August 17 above $340? Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of August 17 above $340?

99% +36.6%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of August 17 above $340?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,422 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 362

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?

14% -35.7%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $42,856 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 354

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 21? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 21?

20% -35.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 21?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,305 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 336

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?

41% +33.1%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $35,127 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 299

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 21? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 21?

80% +29.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 21?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,506 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 195

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

72% -19.1%

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $37,918 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 114

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%? Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?

40% -11.0%

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,475 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#33 · Score 83

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

22% +8.0%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $563 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。