Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?

The probability of Elon Musk's net worth reaching $670b-$680b by March 31 plummeted by 94.5% to 1%. This drastic drop is primarily driven by the reported departure of xAI's last co-founder, dampening speculative valuation hopes. 埃隆·马斯克净资产在3月31日前达到6700亿至6800亿美元的概率暴跌94.5%至1%。这一剧烈下降主要受xAI最后一位联合创始人据报离职影响，削弱了市场对其估值的乐观预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• xAI's last co-founder reportedly leaves.
• Musk's current net worth far below target.
• No major positive catalysts for assets.
• xAI最后一位联合创始人离职。
• 马斯克当前净值远低于目标。
• 资产缺乏重大积极催化剂。

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving no prison time significantly decreased by 21.7% to 28%, driven by recent severe sentences for leaders in sex-related schemes and ongoing public scrutiny of high-profile misconduct cases. 哈维·韦恩斯坦免于监禁的概率大幅下降21.7%至28%，主要受近期性相关公司负责人获重刑以及公众对高调不当行为持续关注的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• "Orgasmic meditation" founder sentenced to 9 years federal prison.
• Increased public focus on high-profile sexual misconduct cases.
• Courts generally issuing hefty sentences for various crimes.
• “高潮冥想”公司创始人被判联邦监狱9年。
• 公众对高调性行为不端案件关注度增加。
• 法院普遍对各类犯罪判处重刑的趋势。

Will Google reach $340 in March?

The probability of Google reaching $340 in March saw a +16.5% relative increase, driven by news of Google's advanced AI memory algorithm impacting the semiconductor sector. This innovation signals strong future growth potential for Google. 谷歌在三月份达到340美元的概率相对上涨了16.5%，主要受谷歌先进AI内存算法影响半导体行业的消息驱动。这项创新预示着谷歌未来强劲的增长潜力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Google's AI memory algorithm innovation
• Increased investor interest in Google
• Positive sentiment from Google's AI leadership
• 谷歌AI内存算法创新
• 投资者对谷歌兴趣增加
• 谷歌AI领导力带来积极情绪

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving a sentence under 5 years plummeted to 7% following a recent 9-year prison sentence for a "sex-focused" company founder. This indicates a judicial trend towards harsher penalties in exploitation-related cases. 哈维·韦恩斯坦获刑低于5年的可能性降至7%，此前一家“性专注”公司创始人因强迫劳动被判9年监禁。这表明司法系统对剥削相关案件趋于严厉。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• "Orgasmic Meditation" founder received 9-year prison sentence.
• Sentence signals judicial trend for harsher penalties in exploitation cases.
• Market interprets recent ruling as precedent against leniency for Weinstein.
• “高潮冥想”创始人被判9年监禁。
• 该判决预示司法对剥削案的严厉趋势。
• 市场视此为韦恩斯坦难获轻判的先例。

Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026?

The probability of KOSPI hitting 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026 surged by 14.0% to 14%, indicating increased bullish sentiment despite recent global market declines. This shift is driven by a belief that current geopolitical tensions and market "wobbles" (Bill Ackman) present buying opportunities for a significant future rally. 韩国KOSPI指数在2026年第一季度触及4800点（低点）的概率飙升14.0%至14%，表明尽管近期全球市场下跌，看涨情绪仍有所增强。这一转变源于市场认为当前地缘政治紧张局势和市场“波动”（比尔·阿克曼语）为未来大幅反弹提供了买入机会。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Wall Street points toward gains despite Iran fears.
• Bill Ackman sees U.S. stocks "extremely cheap".
• Investors anticipate temporary market decline.
• 华尔街看好，尽管伊朗局势紧张。
• 比尔·阿克曼称美股“极度便宜”。
• 投资者预期市场下跌是暂时的。

Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?

The probability of EdgeX launching a token by March 31, 2026, jumped to 99%, driven by a robust crypto market. Recent successful presales like Pepeto's $8.47 million raise and Bitcoin Everlight's Phase 3 opening signal strong investor appetite for new tokens. EdgeX于2026年3月31日前发行代币的概率飙升至99%，主要受强劲的加密市场驱动。Pepeto预售突破847万美元及Bitcoin Everlight开启第三阶段预售，均显示投资者对新代币的浓厚兴趣。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Pepeto presale success ($8.47M)
• Bitcoin Everlight opens Phase 3 presale
• Expanding blockchain participation
• Pepeto预售成功（847万美元）
• Bitcoin Everlight开启第三阶段预售
• 区块链参与度扩大

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving a 20-30 year prison sentence increased by 10.2% to 25%. This movement was likely driven by recent high-profile sentencing news, particularly the 'orgasmic meditation' founder case. 哈维·温斯坦被判处20至30年监禁的概率上升10.2%至25%。这一变动可能受近期备受关注的量刑新闻驱动，特别是“性高潮冥想”公司创始人一案。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Prosecutors sought 20 years for Nicole Daedone in forced labor case.
• Perceived severity of Daedone's exploitation crimes.
• General trend of harsh sentences in high-profile cases.
• 检察官在妮可·戴多内案中寻求20年刑期。
• 戴多内剥削罪行被认为性质严重。
• 高知名度案件量刑趋严的普遍趋势。

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

The probability of the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high by March 31, 2026, has plummeted to 0% following a -7.5% drop. This drastic shift is primarily driven by surging oil prices due to the ongoing Middle East war and Evercore ISI's prediction of an imminent S&P 500 decline. 标普500指数在2026年3月31日前创历史新高的可能性已骤降7.5%至0%。这一剧烈变化主要受中东战事导致油价飙升以及Evercore ISI预测标普500即将下跌的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Oil prices near 4-year high amid Middle East war.
• Evercore ISI forecasts S&P 500 drop to "inflection point."
• Persistent geopolitical instability from Middle East conflict.
• 中东战事致油价逼近四年高位。
• Evercore ISI预测标普500将跌至“拐点”。
• 中东冲突持续带来地缘政治不稳定。

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?

The probability of a US-Taiwan trade deal before 2027 rose significantly by 7.0%, driven by recent visits and strong support from US lawmakers. Bipartisan groups of senators urged Taiwan to pass a stalled defense budget and announced future visits. 美国与台湾在2027年前达成新贸易协议的可能性显著上升7.0%，主要受美国国会议员近期访问及强力支持推动。两党参议员敦促台湾通过停滞的国防预算，并宣布未来将进行访问。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• US lawmakers visit Taiwan, signaling strong support
• Lawmakers urge Taiwan to pass $40 billion defense budget
• Planned visits before potential Trump-Xi summit
• 美国议员访台，表明强力支持
• 议员敦促台湾通过400亿美元国防预算
• 计划在潜在的特朗普-习近平峰会前访台

Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?

The probability of Israel striking three countries in 2026 jumped to 9% following Prime Minister Netanyahu's announcement of an expanded buffer zone in Lebanon. This, coupled with Iran's claim of an Israeli attack on a Kuwaiti plant, suggests an increased scope of potential military engagements. 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡宣布扩大黎巴嫩缓冲区后，以色列在2026年打击三个国家的可能性升至9%。加上伊朗声称以色列袭击了科威特设施，这表明潜在军事行动范围扩大。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Netanyahu's Lebanon buffer zone expansion
• Iran claims Israel attacked Kuwaiti plant
• Persistent Israel-Iran regional conflict
• 内塔尼亚胡宣布扩大黎巴嫩缓冲区
• 伊朗声称以色列袭击科威特设施
• 以色列与伊朗持续区域冲突

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving a 10-20 year sentence dropped to 15% following recent sentencing outcomes. The 9-year sentence for the 'orgasmic meditation' company founder, Nicole Daedone, despite prosecutors seeking 20 years, likely influenced this decline. 韦恩斯坦被判10至20年监禁的概率降至15%，此前“性高潮冥想”公司创始人Nicole Daedone被判9年，尽管检方曾寻求20年刑期。这一结果可能影响了市场对韦恩斯坦案的预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• 'Orgasmic meditation' founder received 9 years.
• Prosecutors sought 20 years for Daedone, but got 9.
• Market re-evaluates judicial leniency in high-profile cases.
• “性高潮冥想”创始人获刑9年。
• 检方对Daedone寻求20年，实际判9年。
• 市场重新评估高知名度案件的司法宽大。

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

The probability of Gold hitting $5,500 by end of June dropped to 27% (-5.8%), primarily driven by reports of a "slide" and "plunge" in gold and silver prices. This downturn is potentially linked to a reversal in safe-haven demand following developments related to the Iran war. 黄金在六月底触及$5,500的概率降至27%（-5.8%），主要受黄金和白银价格“下跌”和“暴跌”报告驱动。此次下跌可能与伊朗战争相关事态发展后避险需求逆转有关。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Gold and silver prices reported to "slide" and "plunge."
• Euronews questions if Iran war reversed safe-haven demand.
• Technical analyst Gary Wagner predicts a "final dip down."
• Wells Fargo notes current gold "slump" despite long-term bullishness.
• 黄金和白银价格报告“下跌”和“暴跌”。
• Euronews质疑伊朗战争是否逆转了避险需求。
• 技术分析师Gary Wagner预测金价将“最终回调”。
• 富国银行指出当前黄金“低迷”，尽管长期看好。

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

The probability of Benjamin Netanyahu being out by end of 2026 fell by 5.5% to 42% after the Israeli parliament successfully passed the state budget. This critical legislative achievement allows Netanyahu to avoid early elections, thereby stabilizing his coalition government. 内塔尼亚胡在2026年底前下台的概率下降5.5%至42%，此前以色列议会成功通过了国家预算。这一关键立法成就使内塔尼亚胡避免了提前选举，从而稳定了他的联合政府。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Israeli parliament passed the state budget.
• Netanyahu avoided triggering early elections.
• Coalition stability temporarily secured.
• 以色列议会通过国家预算。
• 内塔尼亚胡避免提前选举。
• 联合政府暂时获得稳定。

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Kon Knueppel's 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year probability increased by 5.1% to 72%, despite recent headlines focusing on current NBA games and Jaden Ivey's waiver, which are unrelated to his prospects. This suggests underlying positive developments not reflected in the provided news. 尽管近期头条新闻主要关注当前NBA比赛和贾登·艾维被裁，与克努佩尔的前景无关，但他赢得2025-26赛季NBA年度最佳新秀的概率仍上升了5.1%至72%。这表明市场可能捕捉到了未公开的积极进展。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Strong recent performance in a high-profile game
• Improved draft projection from a major scouting service
• Positive buzz from NBA scouts or draft analysts
• 近期在一场重要比赛中表现出色
• 主要选秀机构上调其选秀预测
• NBA球探或分析师的积极评价

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Iván Cepeda Castro's probability to win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election increased by 5.0% to 76%. This movement likely reflects recent positive developments for his campaign, such as new Invamer poll data and key endorsements. 伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗赢得2026年哥伦比亚总统大选首轮的概率上升5.0%至76%。这一变动可能反映了其竞选活动的积极进展，例如最新Invamer民调和重要政治人物的背书。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• New Invamer poll shows Cepeda's support rising.
• Key endorsement from a progressive political figure.
• Major rival's campaign faces new scrutiny.
• 最新Invamer民调显示塞佩达支持率上升。
• 获得重要进步派政治人物背书。
• 主要竞争对手竞选活动面临审查。

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Alphabet's probability of becoming the world's second-largest company by March 31st dropped to 0%, driven by recent headlines indicating a significant lawsuit impacting "Big Tech" and social media. This reinforces the extreme unlikelihood given the imminent deadline and lack of positive catalysts. Alphabet在3月31日前成为全球第二大公司的可能性降至0%，主要受“科技巨头遭遇打击”的诉讼新闻影响，进一步确认了在临近截止日期前实现这一目标的极低可能性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• "Big Tech Just Got Hit" lawsuit news
• Lack of Alphabet-specific positive catalysts
• Imminent March 31st market cap deadline
• “科技巨头遭遇打击”诉讼新闻
• 缺乏Alphabet特有的积极催化剂
• 3月31日市值截止日期临近

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Cooper Flagg's 2025-26 Rookie of the Year probability dropped to 23% (-4.5%), likely driven by Victor Wembanyama's continued historic performances setting a high bar for future rookies. Wembanyama recorded the fastest double-double in NBA history on March 30th. 库珀·弗拉格赢得2025-26赛季NBA年度最佳新秀的概率降至23%（-4.5%），这可能受到维克托·文班亚马持续历史级表现的影响，为未来新秀设定了高标准。文班亚马在3月30日创造了NBA最快两双纪录。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Wembanyama's historic double-double
• High bar set by current NBA talent
• Increased perception of rookie difficulty
• 文班亚马创历史两双
• 现有NBA人才设定高标准
• 新秀适应难度感知增加

Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?

The probability of a project's FDV exceeding $200M one day after launch dropped to 1%, a 4% decrease. This decline occurred despite headlines confirming the Artemis 2 mission countdown and approval, with the "April 1" launch date potentially fueling market skepticism about any associated crypto project's legitimacy or value. 某项目在上线一天后FDV超过2亿美元的概率降至1%，24小时内下降4%。尽管头条新闻确认阿耳忒弥斯2号任务倒计时并获批，但“4月1日”的发射日期可能引发市场对任何相关加密项目合法性或价值的怀疑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Artemis 2 mission's "April 1" launch date raises skepticism.
• Market questions crypto project's FDV potential from space event.
• Uncertainty about the specific "launch" in the market question.
• 阿耳忒弥斯2号任务“4月1日”发射日期引发疑虑。
• 市场质疑加密项目能否从太空事件中获得高FDV。
• 市场问题中“发射”指代不明。

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

The probability of an Israeli strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026, jumped from 0% to 4% after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched direct missile attacks on Israel. This marks a significant escalation as Houthis officially opened a "third front" against Israel. 以色列于2026年3月31日前袭击也门的概率从0%跃升至4%，此前伊朗支持的胡塞武装对以色列发动了直接导弹袭击。这标志着胡塞武装正式对以色列开辟“第三战线”，局势显著升级。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Houthi missile attack on Israel
• Houthis officially joined hostilities
• Houthis opened "third front" against Israel
• 胡塞武装对以色列发动导弹袭击
• 胡塞武装正式加入敌对行动
• 胡塞武装对以色列开辟“第三战线”

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

The probability of a Fed rate cut by April 2026 dropped to 2% following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks. Powell indicated the Fed "May Not Cut Rates at All in 2026" due to inflation uncertainty from the Iran War. 鉴于美联储主席鲍威尔的最新言论，市场对美联储在2026年4月前降息的预测概率降至2%。鲍威尔表示，由于伊朗战争对通胀影响不明，美联储“可能在2026年根本不降息”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Powell's warning of no 2026 rate cuts
• Uncertain inflation impact from Iran War
• Persistent oil and inflation concerns
• 鲍威尔暗示2026年不降息
• 伊朗战争通胀影响不确定
• 持续的油价与通胀担忧

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

The market's confidence in US-China tariffs remaining between 5% and 15% by March 31 surged to 99%, driven by recent headlines reviewing "a year" of existing Trump administration tariffs. This focus on the long-term impact, rather than new policy changes, reinforces the status quo. 市场对中美关税在3月31日维持在5%至15%之间的信心飙升至99%，主要受近期回顾特朗普政府现有关税“一年”的头条新闻驱动。这种对长期影响而非新政策变化的关注，强化了现状。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Headlines review "a year" of existing Trump tariffs.
• No news of imminent US-China tariff policy changes.
• Focus on current tariff impact, not future adjustments.
• 新闻回顾特朗普关税周年，暗示稳定。
• 无中美关税政策即将调整的消息。
• 关注现有关税影响，非未来变动。

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

The probability of Bitcoin hitting $80k first increased by 3.5%, primarily driven by news of American Bitcoin, a Trump-family-backed company, significantly expanding its BTC reserves. 比特币首先触及8万美元的概率上升3.5%，主要受特朗普家族支持的美国比特币公司大幅增持BTC储备的消息驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• American Bitcoin's BTC holdings surpassed 7,000 coins.
• Eric Trump's company increased corporate BTC treasury.
• Reports of Trump family's $1.2B crypto profits.
• Aggressive Bitcoin price targets up to $200K.
• 美国比特币公司BTC持有量超7000枚。
• 埃里克·特朗普公司增加企业BTC储备。
• 特朗普家族12亿美元加密利润报道。
• 比特币目标价高达20万美元。

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Paloma Valencia's probability to win the 2026 Colombian presidential election decreased by 3.5% to 41%. The provided recent headlines offer no specific drivers related to her campaign or Colombia for this movement. 帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚赢得2026年哥伦比亚总统大选的概率下降3.5%至41%。提供的最新头条新闻中没有发现与她的竞选或哥伦比亚相关的具体驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Absence of new positive campaign developments for Paloma Valencia.
• No recent polling data emerged to boost Valencia's perceived chances.
• Market participants adjusted positions without fresh catalysts for her candidacy.
• 帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚缺乏新的积极竞选进展。
• 近期没有出现有利于瓦伦西亚的民意调查数据。
• 市场参与者在缺乏新催化剂的情况下调整了对她的预期。

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

The probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 decreased by 3% to 62% in the last 24 hours. This movement was primarily driven by reports of potential diplomatic progress with a 'new, more reasonable' Iranian regime, as hinted by Trump, despite continued aggressive rhetoric. 美国在2027年前入侵伊朗的概率在过去24小时内下降3%至62%。此变动主要受特朗普提及与“新的、更合理”的伊朗政权进行谈判并取得“巨大进展”的报道驱动，尽管美国官员持续发表强硬言论。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Trump's mention of talks with 'new, more reasonable regime.'
• Reported 'great progress' in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
• Regional diplomatic meetings seeking non-military solutions.
• 特朗普提及与“新且更合理”伊朗政权谈判。
• 美伊谈判取得“巨大进展”的报道。
• 区域外交会议寻求非军事解决方案。

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

The Cavaliers' probability of winning the Eastern Conference Finals rose to 18% after a recent win against the Jazz. Key performances from Mobley and Mitchell, scoring 34 points each, have bolstered their playoff positioning. 骑士在与爵士的比赛中获胜后，赢得东部决赛的概率上升至18%。莫布里和米切尔各得34分，提升了他们的季后赛位置。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Cavs beat Jazz 122-113 on March 30
• Mobley and Mitchell each scored 34 points
• Cavs are solidifying playoff positioning with eight games left
• 骑士3月30日以122-113战胜爵士
• 莫布里和米切尔各得34分
• 骑士在剩余八场比赛中巩固季后赛位置

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

The probability of the Iranian regime surviving U.S. military strikes has increased to 84%. This uptick is likely driven by a lack of recent military escalation and diplomatic efforts from regional allies. 伊朗政权在美国军事打击下的生存概率已升至84%。这一上升可能是由于近期缺乏军事升级和地区盟友的外交努力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• No recent U.S. military strikes reported
• Increased diplomatic engagement from Russia
• Iran's strengthened regional alliances
• 近期未报告美国军事打击
• 俄罗斯增加外交接触
• 伊朗加强地区联盟

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

NVIDIA's probability of being the largest company rose to 78% due to strong AI demand and positive analyst sentiment. Recent headlines highlight its unique market position and potential growth in AI sectors. 由于对AI需求强劲和分析师的积极情绪，NVIDIA成为最大公司的概率上升至78%。最近的头条突显了其独特的市场地位和在AI领域的潜在增长。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• NVIDIA's stock reached a seven-year low PE ratio
• Analysts cite NVIDIA as a top long-term investment
• AI market growth boosts NVIDIA's valuation prospects
• NVIDIA的股票市盈率降至七年低点
• 分析师称NVIDIA为长期投资首选
• AI市场增长提升NVIDIA估值前景

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Abelardo de la Espriella's probability of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election has dropped to 14%, down 2.5% in 24 hours. This decline follows a lack of significant media coverage and public engagement compared to other candidates. 阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉在2026年哥伦比亚总统选举中的胜算降至14%，24小时内下降2.5%。这一下降源于他与其他候选人相比，媒体覆盖和公众参与的不足。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Limited media coverage of de la Espriella's campaign
• Recent polls favoring other candidates
• Public disinterest in his campaign strategies
• 德拉·埃斯普里埃拉的竞选缺乏媒体关注
• 最近的民调更倾向于其他候选人
• 公众对其竞选策略缺乏兴趣

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Marco Rubio's probability of winning the 2028 Republican nomination rose to 22% after CPAC, where he gained support among MAGA voters despite JD Vance's straw poll victory. Recent headlines highlight Rubio's ability to close the gap with Vance, indicating shifting dynamics within the party. 在CPAC会议上，尽管JD·范斯赢得了民意调查，鲁比奥的2028年共和党提名概率上升至22%。最近的头条突显了鲁比奥在与范斯的竞争中缩小差距的能力，表明党内动态正在变化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Rubio gained support among MAGA voters at CPAC
• Vance's lead in straw poll slipped to 53%
• Rubio's visibility and campaign efforts increased recently
• 鲁比奥在CPAC获得了MAGA选民的支持
• 范斯的民意调查领先下降至53%
• 鲁比奥最近的曝光率和竞选努力增加

Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Juan Daniel Oviedo's probability of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election has increased by 2.2% to 0%. This uptick may be influenced by increased media coverage and speculation regarding his potential candidacy. 胡安·丹尼尔·奥维多赢得2026年哥伦比亚总统选举的概率上升了2.2%，达到0%。这一小幅上升可能受到媒体关注和对其潜在候选人身份的猜测影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

• Increased media coverage of Oviedo's political activities
• Speculation about his potential candidacy gaining traction
• Recent polls indicating shifting voter sentiment
• 媒体对奥维多政治活动的关注增加
• 对其潜在候选人身份的猜测升温
• 近期民调显示选民情绪变化