AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 12, 2026 19:46 UTC
#1 · Score 899

Iran Shipping Strikes Confirmed 伊朗袭击船只已证实

92% +89.5%

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 12 surged to 92% after multiple reports confirmed Iranian aggression. The US attacked Iran over a ship being hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's IRGC navy declared the strait closed. 多个报道证实伊朗采取侵略行动后，伊朗于7月12日成功袭击船只的概率飙升至92%。美国因霍尔木兹海峡有船只被击中而袭击伊朗，同时伊朗革命卫队海军宣布关闭该海峡。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US attacked Iran over ship hit in Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran's IRGC navy declared Strait of Hormuz closed.
  • Iran reportedly targeted two ships in Hormuz.
  • 美国因霍尔木兹海峡船只遇袭而攻击伊朗。
  • 伊朗革命卫队海军宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 报道称伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击两艘船。
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten global oil supply and maritime trade, potentially triggering broader regional conflict. 霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势升级威胁全球石油供应和海上贸易，可能引发更广泛的地区冲突。
Vol 24h: $22,525 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 US retaliation confirms a ship was hit, validating Iran's successful targeting on July 12. 美国报复行动证实有船只被击中，验证伊朗7月12日成功袭击。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite reports, the extent of "successful targeting" might be disputed or minor, leading to a probability correction. 尽管有报道，但“成功袭击”的程度可能存在争议或影响轻微，导致概率修正。
Loading…
500
#2 · Score 879

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?

94% +87.5%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $29,126 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#3 · Score 500

Bitcoin Surges: 100% Up Probability 比特币飙升：上涨概率100%

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12PM ET

The probability for Bitcoin to be 'Up' by July 12, 12PM ET, surged to 100% following a significant rally. Forbes reported Bitcoin prices 'rallied significantly on Friday, approaching $65,000'. 比特币在7月12日美国东部时间中午前上涨的概率飙升至100%，此前出现显著反弹。福布斯报道称，比特币价格“周五大幅上涨，逼近65,000美元”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin rallied significantly towards $65,000.
  • Forbes highlighted strong underlying positive momentum.
  • Multiple factors driving gains, per Forbes report.
  • 比特币价格显著反弹至65,000美元。
  • 福布斯强调了强劲的潜在上涨势头。
  • 据福布斯报道，多重因素推动了涨势。
This indicates robust investor confidence and strong short-term bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. It suggests a potential for continued upward price movement. 这表明投资者对加密货币市场充满信心，短期看涨情绪浓厚。预示着比特币价格可能继续上涨。
Vol 24h: $125,145 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The recent rally towards $65,000 and strong market momentum suggest continued upward price action for Bitcoin. 近期比特币反弹至65,000美元，加上强劲市场势头，预示价格将持续上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Profit-taking after the rally or institutional selling, like Bitdeer's 227.5 BTC sale, could trigger a pullback. 反弹后的获利了结，或机构抛售（如Bitdeer出售227.5枚BTC），可能引发回调。
Loading…
500
#4 · Score 280

Hormuz Transits Plummet on US-Iran Clashes 霍尔木兹海峡通航量骤降

86% +27.6%

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?

The market's confidence in fewer than 150 ships transiting Hormuz surged to 86%, driven by reports of shipping "grinding to a near halt" and "slowing" following renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and clashes. This significant shift reflects heightened geopolitical risks impacting maritime activity. 市场对霍尔木兹海峡通航船只少于150艘的信心飙升至86%，主要受美国与伊朗冲突升级导致航运“几乎停滞”和“放缓”的报道驱动。这一显著变化反映了地缘政治风险对海上活动的影响加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S.-Iran strikes halt Hormuz shipping (World Oil)
  • Tanker traffic slows after US-Iran clashes (Reuters)
  • Ships avoid Omani route, increase dark transits (Maritime Executive)
  • 美伊冲突致霍尔木兹航运停滞 (World Oil)
  • 美伊冲突后油轮交通放缓 (Reuters)
  • 船只避开阿曼航线，增加隐蔽通行 (Maritime Executive)
A significant reduction in Hormuz transits would severely impact global oil and gas supplies, potentially spiking energy prices and disrupting international trade. This directly affects energy security and economic stability worldwide. 霍尔木兹海峡通航量大幅减少将严重影响全球油气供应，可能推高能源价格并扰乱国际贸易。这直接关系到全球能源安全和经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $39,184 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating U.S.-Iran military confrontations could further deter commercial shipping, leading to even fewer transits than anticipated. 美伊军事对抗升级可能进一步阻止商业航运，导致实际通航船只远低于预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite tensions, economic necessity and potential naval escorts might encourage more vessels to transit, exceeding the 150-ship threshold. 尽管局势紧张，经济需求和潜在海军护航可能促使更多船只通行，超过150艘的门槛。
Loading…
500
#5 · Score 254

Anthropic IPO Odds Drop Anthropic上市概率下降

14% -25.0%

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

The probability of Anthropic IPOing by October 2026 fell to 14% after a 25% drop, driven by concerns over AI company IPO readiness following OpenAI's executive departure. Despite Anthropic appointing Ben Bernanke, specific IPO acceleration signals were absent. Anthropic在2026年10月前上市的概率降至14%，24小时内下跌25%，主要受OpenAI高管离职引发的AI公司上市准备担忧影响。尽管Anthropic任命了本·伯南克，但缺乏具体的上市加速信号。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • OpenAI executive departure ahead of IPO
  • Lack of specific Anthropic IPO readiness news
  • Bernanke appointment signals long-term governance
  • OpenAI高管在IPO前离职
  • Anthropic缺乏具体上市准备消息
  • 伯南克任命预示长期治理重点
Anthropic's IPO timing is a key indicator of the broader AI market's maturity and investor appetite for public AI companies. Anthropic的上市时间是衡量AI市场成熟度和投资者对AI公司兴趣的关键指标。
Vol 24h: $10,529 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Anthropic's strong AI growth and robust governance, bolstered by Ben Bernanke's appointment, could accelerate its IPO plans. Anthropic强劲的AI增长和伯南克加入后的健全治理，可能加速其上市计划。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ample private funding and the complex regulatory landscape for AI may delay Anthropic's public market debut beyond 2026. 充足的私人融资和复杂的AI监管环境，可能推迟Anthropic在2026年后的上市。
Loading…
500
#6 · Score 236

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

38% +23.0%

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $336,222 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#7 · Score 187

Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on

42% +18.3%

Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,223 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#8 · Score 165

Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

0% -16.0%

Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $176,372 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#9 · Score 163

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

37% -16.0%

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,558 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#10 · Score 155

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

30% -15.0%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $66,037 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#11 · Score 153

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31? Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

4% -15.0%

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,971 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#12 · Score 149

Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%? Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?

37% +14.5%

Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $6,669 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#13 · Score 145

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

44% +14.0%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $89,568 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#14 · Score 139

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J

38% +13.5%

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,396 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#15 · Score 135

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

46% -13.0%

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $70,301 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#16 · Score 113

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?

42% +11.0%

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,491 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#17 · Score 109

Delta Outlook Boosts Ornn Index Confidence 达美展望提振Ornn指数信心

98% +10.5%

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $6.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

The probability of the Ornn B200 Index hitting $6.50 by December 31, 2026, surged by 10.5% to 98%, primarily driven by Delta Air Lines' robust Q2 earnings and reaffirmed 2026 outlook. Delta reported topping estimates and expects to meet its original 2026 outlook despite fuel price uncertainty, signaling strong corporate resilience. Ornn B200指数在2026年12月31日前达到6.50美元的概率飙升10.5%至98%，主要受达美航空强劲的第二季度财报和重申的2026年展望推动。达美航空报告业绩超出预期，并预计尽管面临燃油价格不确定性，仍将实现其最初的2026年展望，这表明企业具有强大的韧性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Delta Q2 earnings topped estimates.
  • Delta reinstated full-year guidance.
  • Delta expects to meet original 2026 outlook.
  • 达美航空第二季度盈利超预期。
  • 达美航空恢复全年业绩指引。
  • 达美航空预计实现2026年展望。
Delta's positive financial health and forward-looking confidence suggest broader economic resilience, particularly in the travel sector, which can positively influence a diverse market index like Ornn B200. This indicates that major corporations are navigating economic headwinds effectively. 达美航空积极的财务状况和前瞻性信心表明了更广泛的经济韧性，尤其是在旅游业，这可能积极影响像Ornn B200这样的多元化市场指数。这表明主要公司正在有效应对经济逆风。
Vol 24h: $5,891 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings and optimistic long-term guidance from key companies like Delta signal a robust economic environment supporting the index's growth. 达美等主要公司强劲的盈利和乐观的长期指引预示着强劲的经济环境，将支持指数增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions (Iran, NATO) and persistent fuel price uncertainty could still derail economic stability, preventing the index from reaching its high target. 地缘政治紧张局势（伊朗、北约）和持续的燃油价格不确定性仍可能破坏经济稳定，阻碍指数达到高点。
Loading…
500
#18 · Score 108

Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%? Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?

32% +10.5%

Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,870 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#19 · Score 93

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

50% +9.0%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,113 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#20 · Score 84

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

94% +8.0%

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,750 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#21 · Score 79

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an

38% -7.5%

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,498 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#22 · Score 78

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

22% +7.1%

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,483,409 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#23 · Score 75

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

18% -7.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $126,915 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#24 · Score 74

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31? Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?

10% +7.0%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,700 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#25 · Score 74

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in

68% +7.0%

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,168 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#26 · Score 69

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August

94% +6.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,782 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 68

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July?

32% +6.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $850 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 68

Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.9% and 1.1%? Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.9% and 1.1%?

33% +6.5%

Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.9% and 1.1%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,009 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 67

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

15% +6.2%

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $46,438 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 65

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

60% +6.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $119,439 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 39

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?

78% -3.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,235 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。