AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 02, 2026 10:20 UTC
#1 · Score 567

Spirit Bailout Fails, Shutdown Looms 精神航空救助失败，面临停运

3% -56.2%

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

The probability of the US taking a stake in Spirit Airlines plummeted to 3% following reports that the airline is preparing to shut down. This drastic drop was driven by the confirmed failure to secure a $500M bailout from the Trump administration. 美国入股精神航空的概率骤降至3%，此前有报道称该航空公司正准备停运。这一急剧下降是由于特朗普政府5亿美元救助谈判确认失败所致。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump administration bailout talks failed.
  • Spirit Airlines preparing for shutdown.
  • Failed to secure $500M government aid.
  • 特朗普政府救助谈判失败。
  • 精神航空准备停运。
  • 未能获得5亿美元政府援助。
The potential shutdown of Spirit Airlines underscores the severe economic impact on the airline industry and the challenges of government rescue efforts during crises. 精神航空的潜在停运凸显了疫情对航空业的严重经济冲击，以及政府在危机中实施救援的挑战。
Vol 24h: $33,997 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A last-minute government intervention or new private investment could still prevent shutdown, raising stake probability. 最后一刻的政府干预或新私人投资仍可能阻止停运，提高入股概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Spirit's confirmed shutdown without a bailout makes a US government stake highly improbable. 精神航空确认停运且无救助，美国政府入股可能性极低。
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500
#2 · Score 504

Bitcoin Probability Plummets on Risk-Off 比特币上涨概率因避险情绪暴跌

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3AM ET

Bitcoin's 'up' probability plunged to 0% in 24 hours, driven by a broad risk sell-off following the UAE's reported OPEC exit and escalating geopolitical tensions. A significant $82K technical sell wall also capped upside potential. 比特币上涨概率在24小时内跌至0%，主要受阿联酋退出欧佩克引发的避险抛售和地缘政治紧张局势加剧影响。8.2万美元的技术抛压墙也限制了其上涨空间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • UAE’s OPEC exit triggers risk sell-off
  • Bitcoin faces strong $82K technical sell wall
  • Geopolitical tensions fuel 'Sell in May' fears
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发避险抛售
  • 比特币面临8.2万美元强劲技术抛压
  • 地缘政治紧张加剧“五月抛售”担忧
This sharp decline reflects a significant shift in investor confidence towards risk assets, indicating a prevailing bearish outlook for Bitcoin amidst global economic and geopolitical uncertainties. 此次急剧下跌反映了投资者对风险资产信心的显著转变，表明在全球经济和地缘政治不确定性中，比特币普遍看跌。
Vol 24h: $34,165 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite current headwinds, institutional adoption and potential for future ETF inflows could provide upward momentum. 尽管面临逆风，机构采用和潜在ETF资金流入仍可能提供上涨动力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating geopolitical risks and strong technical resistance at $82K will likely keep Bitcoin under pressure. 地缘政治风险升级和8.2万美元强劲阻力将使比特币承压。
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500
#3 · Score 504

Bitcoin Down: Sell-Off Confirmed 比特币下跌：抛售潮确认

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4AM ET

Bitcoin is now predicted with 100% certainty to be down by May 2, 4AM ET, a 50% probability increase driven by significant miner selling and escalating global risk-off sentiment. 比特币被预测在5月2日凌晨4点前将下跌，概率升至100%，这一50%的增长主要由矿工大量抛售和全球避险情绪加剧驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Riot Platforms sold 500 BTC, increasing market supply.
  • $82K sell wall and UAE's OPEC exit trigger risk sell-off.
  • "Sell in May" macro sentiment and geopolitical tensions (Iran) fuel risk aversion.
  • Riot Platforms出售500枚比特币，增加市场供应。
  • 8.2万美元卖压墙及阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险抛售。
  • “五月抛售”宏观情绪和地缘政治紧张（伊朗）加剧避险。
This strong consensus on Bitcoin's short-term bearish trajectory signals widespread investor flight from risk assets amid macro uncertainty. 市场对比特币短期看跌走势的强烈共识，预示着宏观不确定性下投资者正广泛规避风险资产。
Vol 24h: $30,312 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected positive news, like a major institutional investment or regulatory clarity, could swiftly reverse the current bearish outlook. 突如其来的利好消息，如大型机构投资或监管明确，可能迅速扭转当前看跌预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued miner capitulation and worsening geopolitical events will solidify Bitcoin's downward price pressure. 矿工持续抛售和地缘政治局势恶化将进一步巩固比特币的下行压力。
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500
#4 · Score 504

RKLB $80 Target Probability Surges to 100% RKLB五月触及80美元概率飙升

100% +50.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?

The probability of Rocket Lab (RKLB) hitting $80 in May surged to 100% in 24 hours, likely driven by a misinterpretation of recent headlines. While no direct RKLB news emerged, a Bloomberg headline mentioning '80 Seconds' may have been erroneously linked to the target price, amplified by positive sentiment for the broader space sector. 火箭实验室（RKLB）五月触及80美元的概率在24小时内飙升至100%，这很可能源于对近期新闻的误读。尽管没有直接的RKLB利好消息，但彭博社一篇提及“80秒”的报道可能被错误地与RKLB的目标价联系起来，并受到航天领域积极情绪的放大。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Misinterpretation of '80 Seconds' in Bloomberg headline
  • Positive sentiment from SpaceX's 10X loan gains
  • Rapid algorithmic trading or market overreaction
  • 彭博社“80秒”标题的数字误读
  • SpaceX贷款高回报提振航天业情绪
  • 算法交易或市场快速过度反应
This movement highlights how specific numerical mentions, even in unrelated news, can trigger significant, potentially irrational, market shifts in prediction markets. 这一波动凸显了即使是不相关的数字提及，也可能在预测市场中引发显著的、潜在非理性的市场变化。
Vol 24h: $14,112 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong investor confidence in the private space sector, exemplified by SpaceX's valuation, could lift RKLB. SpaceX估值显示的私人航天领域强劲投资者信心可能提振RKLB。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 100% probability lacks direct RKLB catalysts, suggesting a market misinterpretation prone to correction. 100%的概率缺乏直接的RKLB催化剂，表明市场可能存在误读，易于修正。
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500
#5 · Score 503

EWY $162 May Hit Certain 韩国EWY五月触及162美元板上钉钉

100% +50.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $162 in May?

The probability for EWY to hit $162 in May surged to 100% following the WSJ report on South Korea's surging exports. This strong performance is primarily driven by robust global AI-related demand. 韩国EWY五月触及162美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受华尔街日报报道的韩国出口持续激增推动。这一强劲表现的核心驱动力是全球对AI相关产品的旺盛需求。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • South Korea exports surge (WSJ)
  • Robust global AI demand
  • Improved economic outlook
  • 韩国出口激增（华尔街日报）
  • 全球AI需求强劲
  • 经济前景改善
This highlights South Korea's pivotal role in the global AI supply chain, suggesting sustained economic growth and increased investor confidence in its market. 这表明韩国经济正从全球AI供应链中显著受益，预示着其市场将持续增长并增强投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $1,085 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained global AI demand and continued strong export performance will ensure EWY exceeds $162 in May. 全球AI需求持续旺盛和出口强劲增长将确保EWY在五月轻松突破162美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden global economic downturn or a significant slowdown in AI-related demand could prevent EWY from reaching $162. 突发的全球经济衰退或AI相关需求显著放缓可能导致EWY未能达到162美元。
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500
#6 · Score 360

Rial Plunges: USD Nears 1.8M Target 里亚尔暴跌：美元逼近180万

99% +35.7%

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?

The market is almost certain USD will reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31, with probability surging 35.7% in 24 hours. This surge is driven by recent reports confirming the rial hit a record low of 1.8 million to the dollar, alongside warnings of Iran's sinking economy and potential prolonged US blockades. 市场几乎确定美元将在5月31日前达到180万伊朗里亚尔，概率在24小时内飙升35.7%。此涨势主要受里亚尔兑美元跌至180万历史新低、伊朗经济危机加剧以及美国可能长期封锁的警告驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rial hits record low of 1.8M/USD (Washington Post)
  • Iran's economy sinking; state media alarm (Iran International)
  • Trump discusses prolonged US blockade threat (Reuters)
  • 里亚尔兑美元跌至180万历史新低 (华盛顿邮报)
  • 伊朗经济危机加剧，官媒示警 (伊朗国际)
  • 特朗普讨论长期封锁威胁 (路透社)
This reflects severe economic instability in Iran, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and international pressure. A further weakened rial impacts citizens' purchasing power and could fuel social unrest. 这反映了伊朗严重的经济不稳定，受地缘政治紧张和国际压力加剧。里亚尔进一步疲软将影响公民购买力并可能引发社会动荡。
Vol 24h: $1,308 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The rial has already reached or surpassed 1.8M/USD, and ongoing economic and political pressures ensure it remains weak. 里亚尔已达或超180万/美元，持续的经济政治压力确保其保持弱势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unexpected, significant policy shift or international intervention could temporarily strengthen the rial below 1.8M by May 31. 若美国压力意外缓解或出现重大经济利好，里亚尔可能暂时走强，低于180万。
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500
#7 · Score 349

Fed Consensus Expected for June 联储六月料无异议

42% +34.5%

Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?

The probability of no dissent at the June Fed decision surged by 34.5% to 42%, indicating increased market confidence in a unanimous vote. This shift suggests a re-evaluation of past dissent drivers, with the market now anticipating fewer contentious issues for the upcoming meeting. 联储六月决议无异议的概率飙升34.5%至42%，表明市场对一致投票的信心增强。这一变化暗示市场重新评估了过往异议的驱动因素，预计即将到来的会议争议点将减少。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipated clear June guidance avoiding past dissent triggers.
  • Unified inflation outlook among Fed officials post-recent data.
  • Post-Powell chair transition stability reducing unique dissent dynamics.
  • 预期六月指引明确，避免过往异议。
  • 近期数据后，联储官员通胀看法趋同。
  • 鲍威尔过渡后，决策环境趋稳。
A unanimous Fed decision signals strong internal agreement on monetary policy, potentially reducing market uncertainty and providing clearer forward guidance. 联储一致决定预示货币政策内部高度统一，可能降低市场不确定性并提供更清晰的前瞻指引。
Vol 24h: $3,718 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Market expects June's decision to be a straightforward hold with clear communication, removing reasons for dissent. 市场预计六月决策将是明确的维持利率，沟通清晰，消除异议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected economic data or new forward guidance language could still trigger dissents from hawkish or dovish members. 意外数据或新指引措辞仍可能引发鹰派或鸽派异议。
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500
#8 · Score 314

Bitcoin $78K-$80K Probability Soars 比特币7.8万-8万美元区间概率大增

60% +31.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 3?

The probability for Bitcoin to be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 3rd surged to 60%, driven by news of an $82K sell wall. This indicates market belief that upside is capped, with risk-off sentiment pushing prices towards this range. 比特币在5月3日价格介于7.8万至8万美元的概率飙升至60%，主要受8.2万美元抛售墙消息驱动。这表明市场认为上涨空间受限，避险情绪将价格推向此区间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • $82K sell wall caps Bitcoin's upside
  • UAE's OPEC exit triggers risk sell-off
  • Riot Platforms sells 500 bitcoins
  • 8.2万美元抛售墙限制比特币上涨
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险抛售
  • Riot Platforms出售500枚比特币
This movement reflects growing caution in the crypto market, with key resistance levels and macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. It signals a potential consolidation phase rather than a strong breakout. 此变动反映加密市场日益谨慎，关键阻力位和宏观经济因素影响比特币短期走势。这预示着可能进入盘整而非强劲突破阶段。
Vol 24h: $13,912 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong demand emerges below $78,000, preventing further declines while the $82K resistance holds, keeping BTC within range. 7.8万美元下方出现强劲需求，阻止进一步下跌，同时8.2万美元阻力位保持，使比特币维持在该区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued risk-off sentiment or increased miner selling could break $78,000 support, pushing Bitcoin below the target range. 持续的避险情绪或矿工抛售增加可能跌破7.8万美元支撑，将比特币推至目标区间以下。
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500
#9 · Score 288

US Indicts Mexican Officials, Anti-Cartel Operation Confirmed 美国起诉墨官员，反贩毒行动已确认

100% +28.2%

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

The market probability surged to 100% after the US Justice Department indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and 9 other Mexican officials for drug trafficking. This legal action is widely interpreted as fulfilling the market's condition for a "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States." 在美国司法部起诉锡那罗亚州州长鲁本·罗查·莫亚及其他9名墨西哥官员涉嫌贩毒后，市场概率飙升至100%。此法律行动被广泛解读为已满足市场关于“美国境外反贩毒行动”的条件。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya.
  • Charges against 10 Mexican officials for cartel ties.
  • Media labeled it "new front in drug war."
  • 美国起诉锡那罗亚州州长。
  • 指控10名墨西哥官员涉嫌贩毒。
  • 媒体称之为“毒品战争新战线”。
This marks a significant escalation in US anti-cartel efforts, directly targeting high-level foreign officials, potentially impacting US-Mexico relations and future enforcement. 这标志着美国反贩毒行动的重大升级，直接针对外国高级官员，可能影响美墨关系及未来执法。
Vol 24h: $436,490 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The US Justice Department's indictments of foreign officials already constitute a qualifying "anti-cartel operation" outside the US. 美国司法部对外国官员的起诉已构成符合条件的“境外反贩毒行动”。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A stricter interpretation of "operation" might require physical enforcement actions or arrests abroad, which are not yet guaranteed. 若“行动”定义更严格，需境外实际执法或逮捕，则此条件尚未完全满足。
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500
#10 · Score 265

Bitcoin May 2 Up Probability Plunges 比特币5月2日上涨概率暴跌

22% -26.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 2 plummeted by 26% to 22%, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a broad risk-off sentiment. Headlines cited UAE's OPEC exit triggering a risk sell-off and early 'Sell in May' concerns. 比特币在5月2日上涨的概率暴跌26%至22%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势升级和普遍的避险情绪驱动。新闻提及阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险资产抛售，以及“五月抛售”担忧提前。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • UAE's OPEC exit triggers risk sell-off
  • Bitcoin's upside capped by $82K sell wall
  • Early 'Sell in May' sentiment amid US-Iran tensions
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险抛售
  • $82K卖压墙限制比特币上涨空间
  • 美伊紧张局势下‘五月抛售’提前
This sharp decline reflects growing investor caution towards risk assets like Bitcoin amidst global instability. It highlights how macro events and technical barriers significantly influence crypto market sentiment. 此次大幅下跌反映出在全球不稳定背景下，投资者对包括比特币在内的风险资产日益谨慎。这凸显了宏观事件和技术障碍对加密市场情绪的重大影响。
Vol 24h: $68,305 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or strong institutional buying could reverse the bearish trend. 地缘政治紧张局势意外缓解或机构强劲买入可能扭转当前看跌趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued global risk aversion and failure to break key resistance will likely keep Bitcoin under pressure. 全球避险情绪持续以及未能突破关键阻力位将使比特币承压。
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500
#11 · Score 239

NVDA Crash Certainty Surges to 100% 英伟达暴跌确定性升至100%

100% +23.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in May?

The probability of NVIDIA (NVDA) hitting a low of $208 in May has surged to 100%, indicating market certainty of a massive correction despite recent bullish headlines. This extreme bearish shift suggests participants view NVDA's current valuation as unsustainable, potentially signaling a peak in the AI bubble. 英伟达（NVDA）五月触及208美元低点的概率飙升至100%，表明市场确信将出现大幅回调，尽管近期头条新闻普遍看涨。这种极度看跌的转变暗示参与者认为英伟达当前估值不可持续，可能预示着AI泡沫的顶峰。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AI Bubble Concerns despite surging data-center revenue.
  • Alphabet challenging NVDA's market cap signals peak valuation.
  • Aggressive profit-taking expected after unprecedented growth.
  • AI泡沫担忧：尽管英伟达数据中心收入激增，但巨额AI支出被视为不可持续的泡沫。
  • 估值见顶信号：Alphabet挑战英伟达市值，可能预示英伟达估值已达顶峰。
  • 极端超买修正：前所未有的增长可能导致激进获利了结，引发股价大幅修正。
This market reflects extreme volatility and potential for a major re-evaluation of AI sector valuations, impacting investor confidence. 该市场反映了极度波动性及AI板块估值可能面临重大重估，影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $18,312 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVDA's robust fundamentals and sustained AI demand will prevent a drop to $208, proving this market mispriced. 英伟达强劲的基本面和持续的AI需求将阻止股价跌至208美元，证明市场定价错误。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Market participants believe NVDA's valuation is an unsustainable bubble, making a severe correction to $208 inevitable. 市场参与者认为英伟达估值存在不可持续的泡沫，股价跌至208美元或更低不可避免。
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500
#12 · Score 238

PLTR Misses $145 Target PLTR未达$145目标

0% -23.4%

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of April 27 above $145?

The probability for Palantir (PLTR) to finish the week of April 27 above $145 has dropped to 0% as the week has concluded. PLTR's actual closing price on April 26 was $22.34, significantly below the $145 threshold. 鉴于4月27日当周已结束，Palantir (PLTR) 收盘价高于145美元的概率已降至0%。PLTR在4月26日的实际收盘价为22.34美元，远低于145美元的门槛。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • PLTR's actual closing price on April 26 was $22.34.
  • The target week of April 27 has already passed.
  • The $145 price target was not met.
  • PLTR在4月26日实际收盘价为22.34美元。
  • 目标日期4月27日当周已过。
  • 145美元的价格目标未能实现。
This market correction highlights the importance of real-time data and the rapid adjustment of prediction markets to confirmed outcomes. It also shows how far off some initial predictions might have been. 此次市场修正凸显了实时数据的重要性以及预测市场对已确认结果的快速调整能力。这也表明一些初始预测可能与实际情况相去甚远。
Vol 24h: $8,844 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 No bull case exists for this market as the event has passed and PLTR did not close above $145. 由于事件已过且PLTR未收于145美元之上，此市场无看多理由。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 PLTR's actual closing price of $22.34 on April 26 confirmed it was far below the $145 target. PLTR在4月26日实际收盘价22.34美元，远低于145美元目标。
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500
#13 · Score 238

PLTR $144 May Target Certainty Surges PLTR五月目标$144确定性飙升

100% +23.4%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 in May?

Palantir Technologies' probability of hitting $144 in May surged to 100% following its multi-year enterprise AI deal with Cleveland Cliffs. This significant agreement is seen by the market as a strong validation of Palantir's growth story, despite existing valuation concerns. 随着Palantir Technologies与Cleveland Cliffs达成一项多年期企业AI协议，其在五月达到$144的概率飙升至100%。市场将此重大协议视为Palantir增长故事的有力验证，尽管存在对估值的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Palantir's multi-year AI deal with Cleveland Cliffs
  • Market interprets deal as strong AI growth validation
  • Broader US stock rally and positive earnings outlook
  • Palantir与Cleveland Cliffs达成AI协议
  • 市场视此为AI增长强劲验证
  • 美国股市普遍上涨及财报预期乐观
This movement reflects extreme market confidence in Palantir's AI monetization strategy and its potential to drive unprecedented stock appreciation, challenging its "lofty valuation." 这一走势反映了市场对Palantir人工智能变现策略及其推动股价空前上涨潜力的极端信心，挑战了其“高估值”的看法。
Vol 24h: $2,808 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The Cleveland Cliffs AI deal signals robust enterprise adoption, validating Palantir's growth trajectory and potentially attracting massive new capital. Cleveland Cliffs AI协议预示企业AI采用强劲，验证了Palantir增长轨迹，可能吸引大量新资金。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $144 target is highly unrealistic given current price, suggesting extreme over-optimism or a market mispricing of the Cleveland Cliffs deal. $144目标极不现实，或因市场对Cleveland Cliffs协议过度乐观或定价错误。
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500
#14 · Score 153

Silver $68 Low Probability Drops 白银触及68美元低点概率下降

40% -15.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?

The probability of Silver hitting a $68 low in May decreased by 15% to 40%, primarily driven by strong bullish forecasts and current high futures prices. Bank of America's $86 silver target for 2026 and current Silver Futures at $75.495/ozt indicate robust market confidence. 白银在5月触及68美元低点的可能性下降了15%至40%，主要受强劲看涨预测和当前高期货价格驱动。美国银行对2026年白银86美元的目标价以及当前白银期货75.495美元/盎司的价格表明市场信心强劲。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bank of America's $86 silver target by 2026
  • Silver Futures trading at $75.495/ozt
  • Overall bullish outlook for gold
  • 美国银行预测2026年白银达86美元
  • 白银期货交易价为75.495美元/盎司
  • 黄金整体看涨前景
This reflects growing investor confidence in precious metals, suggesting silver's valuation is seen as resilient against significant downside risk. 这反映了投资者对贵金属日益增长的信心，表明白银的估值被认为具有抵御显著下行风险的韧性。
Vol 24h: $1,328 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected economic downturns or a strong dollar could trigger a sharp sell-off, pushing silver to the $68 low. 意外的经济衰退或美元走强可能引发大幅抛售，推动白银跌至68美元低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Robust institutional forecasts and current high spot prices suggest strong underlying demand, making a $68 low improbable. 强劲的机构预测和当前高现货价格表明需求旺盛，使白银跌至68美元低点可能性小。
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500
#15 · Score 144

Rana Divorce Odds Drop Amid Scandal 拉纳离婚概率因丑闻下降

8% -14.0%

Chirayu Rana divorced?

The probability of Chirayu Rana being divorced dropped significantly as recent extensive media coverage of his 'fabricated' sex harassment allegations against Lorna Hajdini made no mention of his marital status. This absence of divorce-related news amidst a major personal scandal suggests stability on that front. 奇拉尤·拉纳（Chirayu Rana）离婚的概率显著下降，因为近期关于他针对洛娜·哈吉迪尼（Lorna Hajdini）“捏造”性骚扰指控的大量媒体报道中，均未提及他的婚姻状况。在重大个人丑闻中缺乏离婚相关消息，表明其婚姻状况可能稳定。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No divorce news in widespread media reports.
  • Headlines focus on 'fabricated' allegations by Rana.
  • Rana's professional fallout (left job).
  • 广泛媒体报道未提及离婚消息。
  • 新闻焦点集中在拉纳“捏造”指控。
  • 拉纳因丑闻导致职业受挫（离职）。
This market reflects how public scrutiny and the absence of specific information, even during a major scandal, can influence predictions about personal events. 该市场反映了公众关注度以及在重大丑闻中特定信息缺失，如何影响对个人事件的预测。
Vol 24h: $14,488 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Intense personal and professional stress from the 'fabricated' allegations scandal could still lead to marital strain and a future divorce. 尽管目前没有公开报道，但“捏造”指控丑闻带来的巨大个人和职业压力仍可能导致婚姻破裂。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The lack of any divorce-related news in extensive reporting on Chirayu Rana's scandal strongly suggests his marriage is not currently impacted. 在对奇拉尤·拉纳丑闻的广泛报道中，缺乏任何离婚相关消息，强烈表明他的婚姻目前未受影响。
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500
#16 · Score 143

AMZN Low Probability Drops Post-Earnings 亚马逊低点概率因财报下降

57% -14.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

The probability of AMZN hitting a low of $256 in May decreased by 14% to 57%, indicating a more bullish outlook. This shift was primarily driven by Amazon's Q1 earnings exceeding analyst estimates, particularly strong AWS growth. 亚马逊(AMZN)在5月触及256美元低点的可能性下降了14%至57%，表明市场看涨情绪增强。这一变化主要受亚马逊第一季度财报超出分析师预期，特别是AWS强劲增长的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Amazon's Q1 earnings per share and revenue topped Wall Street estimates.
  • AWS reported 17% growth, its fastest in 15 quarters.
  • Positive analyst commentary, like Evercore, on strong cloud performance.
  • 亚马逊第一季度每股收益和营收均超出华尔街预期。
  • AWS营收增长17%，创下15个季度以来的最快增速。
  • Evercore等分析师对云业务强劲表现给出积极评价。
Amazon's strong performance, especially in its cloud computing division (AWS), is a key indicator for the broader tech sector. Its earnings set a significant tone for investor confidence in AI-driven growth and overall market stability. 亚马逊，尤其是其云计算部门（AWS）的强劲表现，是衡量更广泛科技行业的关键指标。其财报为投资者对人工智能驱动的增长和整体市场稳定性的信心定下了重要基调。
Vol 24h: $1,419 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q1 earnings beat and accelerating AWS growth will likely keep AMZN's price well above the $256 low. 强劲的第一季度财报和加速增长的AWS业务将使亚马逊股价远高于256美元的低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 AI investment costs and potential broader market volatility could still pressure AMZN towards the $256 mark. 人工智能投资成本和潜在的市场波动仍可能将亚马逊股价推向256美元。
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500
#17 · Score 125

Rana Lawsuit Probability Surges 拉纳被诉讼概率飙升

90% +12.0%

Chirayu Rana sued?

The probability of Chirayu Rana being sued surged to 90% after he was unmasked as the 'John Doe' behind 'fabricated' sex harassment claims against JPMorgan executive Lorna Hajdini. Recent reports detailing his alleged use of a legal chatbot to construct the false narrative significantly intensified the likelihood of legal action against him. 在奇拉尤·拉纳被揭露为对摩根大通高管洛娜·哈吉迪尼提出“捏造”性骚扰指控的“约翰·多伊”后，他被起诉的可能性飙升至90%。近期报道详细披露他涉嫌使用法律聊天机器人编造虚假叙述，显著加剧了他面临法律诉讼的可能性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Chirayu Rana unmasked as 'John Doe' accuser
  • His sex harassment claims against Lorna Hajdini deemed 'fabricated'
  • Reports of Rana using a legal chatbot for false claims
  • 奇拉尤·拉纳被揭露为“约翰·多伊”指控者
  • 他对洛娜·哈吉迪尼的性骚扰指控被认定为“捏造”
  • 报道称拉纳涉嫌使用法律聊天机器人编造虚假指控
This case highlights the severe consequences of making false accusations and the potential for legal repercussions for defamation, impacting future workplace misconduct reporting. 此案凸显了提出虚假指控的严重后果，以及诽谤可能带来的法律反响，影响未来的职场不当行为举报。
Vol 24h: $78,701 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Lorna Hajdini or JPMorgan will likely sue Chirayu Rana for defamation given the widespread evidence of fabricated claims. 鉴于捏造指控的广泛证据，洛娜·哈吉迪尼或摩根大通很可能起诉奇拉尤·拉纳诽谤。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A settlement could be reached out of court, or Hajdini/JPMorgan might opt against a lawsuit to avoid further publicity. 双方可能达成庭外和解，或哈吉迪尼/摩根大通为避免更多宣传而选择不起诉。
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500
#18 · Score 123

SPY Confirmed Hit $720 in May SPY确认五月触及720美元

100% +11.9%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

The probability of SPY hitting $720 in May reached 100% as S&P 500 futures traded at 7201.50, effectively confirming the target has been met. This milestone reflects a strong market rally, particularly driven by record-setting tech shares. SPY在五月触及720美元的概率升至100%，因标普500股指期货交易价格达到7201.50点，确认目标已实现。这一里程碑反映了市场强劲反弹，尤其由创纪录的科技股驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 futures trading at 7201.50.
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq setting new records.
  • Strong tech share performance (Apple).
  • 标普500股指期货交易价达7201.50点。
  • 标普500和纳斯达克指数创下新高。
  • 科技股表现强劲，如苹果公司。
Reaching this S&P 500 milestone indicates robust market health and investor confidence, potentially signaling continued upward momentum for equities. 标普500指数达到这一里程碑表明市场健康状况良好和投资者信心强劲，可能预示着股市将继续上涨。
Vol 24h: $3,370 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 S&P 500's strong momentum and record-setting tech performance suggest further gains, easily maintaining the $720 level. 标普500指数的强劲势头和科技股创纪录表现预示着进一步上涨，轻松维持720美元水平。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions (Iran blockade) or unexpected negative economic data could trigger a market pullback. 地缘政治紧张局势或意外的负面经济数据可能引发市场回调。
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500
#19 · Score 119

Anthropic Valuation Surges Past OpenAI Anthropic估值超越OpenAI

87% +11.5%

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

The probability of Anthropic being valued higher than OpenAI in 2026 surged to 87% following reports of Anthropic seeking a $900 billion valuation. CNBC and TechCrunch confirmed Anthropic's talks with investors for a funding round explicitly targeting a valuation higher than its competitor. 随着Anthropic寻求9000亿美元估值的消息传出，其在2026年估值高于OpenAI的可能性飙升至87%。CNBC和TechCrunch报道称，Anthropic正与投资者洽谈，目标估值明确高于其竞争对手。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anthropic seeks $900B valuation, higher than OpenAI
  • Valuation round expected within two weeks
  • AI market shows rapid competitive shifts
  • Anthropic寻求9000亿美元估值，高于OpenAI
  • 融资轮有望在两周内完成
  • AI市场竞争激烈，格局快速变化
This valuation shift signifies intense competition and rapid changes in the AI industry leadership. It could impact future investment trends and market dominance in the generative AI space. 这一估值变化预示着AI行业领导地位的激烈竞争和快速更迭。它可能影响生成式AI领域的未来投资趋势和市场主导权。
Vol 24h: $3,909 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Anthropic successfully closes its $900B+ funding round, solidifying its higher valuation over OpenAI. Anthropic成功完成9000亿美元以上融资，巩固其高于OpenAI的估值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 OpenAI announces a new, higher valuation round or a breakthrough product, reclaiming its lead. OpenAI宣布更高估值融资或突破性产品，重新夺回领先地位。
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500
#20 · Score 115

Bitcoin $80K Probability Plunges 比特币8万美元概率骤降

14% -11.0%

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

The probability of Bitcoin hitting $80k first dropped by 11% to 14%, primarily driven by a significant $82K sell wall and a broader risk sell-off. This indicates growing skepticism about Bitcoin's immediate upside potential. 比特币率先触及8万美元的概率下降11%至14%，主要受8.2万美元抛售墙和更广泛的风险抛售影响。这表明市场对比特币短期上涨潜力持怀疑态度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • $82K sell wall caps Bitcoin's upside
  • UAE’s OPEC exit triggers risk sell-off
  • Riot Platforms sells 500 bitcoins
  • 8.2万美元抛售墙压制比特币上涨
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险抛售
  • Riot Platforms出售500枚比特币
This market reflects investor confidence in Bitcoin's near-term price trajectory, impacting broader crypto market sentiment and investment decisions. A lower probability for $80k first suggests increased downside risk or slower growth. 该市场反映了投资者对比特币短期价格走势的信心，影响更广泛的加密市场情绪和投资决策。8万美元概率降低预示着下行风险增加或增长放缓。
Vol 24h: $83,052 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed institutional demand or a significant macro economic tailwind could push Bitcoin towards $80k. 机构需求复苏或宏观经济利好可能推动比特币走向8万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong resistance at $82K and ongoing miner selling pressure make $80k first less likely. 8.2万美元的强大阻力及矿工持续抛售使比特币率先触及8万美元的可能性降低。
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500
#21 · Score 114

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

45% +11.0%

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $17,845 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 104

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

82% +10.0%

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,977 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 103

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

30% -9.8%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $68,989 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 102

Pistons' Playoff Hopes Surge 活塞季后赛希望大增

17% +9.8%

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

The Detroit Pistons' probability of winning the Eastern Conference Finals jumped by 9.8% to 17% in the last 24 hours. This unexpected surge likely reflects growing optimism around the team's young core and early signs of improved performance. 底特律活塞队赢得NBA东部决赛的概率在过去24小时内飙升9.8%至17%。这一意外增长可能反映了市场对球队年轻核心的乐观情绪以及早期表现改善的迹象。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Cade Cunningham's improved play and leadership.
  • Early positive impact of coach Monty Williams.
  • Promising development from young players like Ausar Thompson.
  • 坎宁安（Cade Cunningham）表现提升。
  • 蒙蒂·威廉姆斯（Monty Williams）教练早期积极影响。
  • 奥萨尔·汤普森（Ausar Thompson）等年轻球员的进步。
This movement, though from a low base, indicates a shift in perception for a historically struggling franchise, potentially signaling future competitiveness. 尽管基数较低，但这一变化表明人们对这支历史性挣扎的球队的看法有所转变，可能预示着未来的竞争力。
Vol 24h: $49,898 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued development of their young core and strong coaching could propel the Pistons into playoff contention. 年轻核心的持续发展和出色执教可能推动活塞队进入季后赛竞争行列。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The Pistons remain an inexperienced team in a strong conference, facing significant competition from established contenders. 活塞队经验不足，东部联盟强队如林，竞争激烈。
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500
#25 · Score 99

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

58% +9.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,960 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 94

UAE Exit Odds Jump 阿联酋脱离海合会概率大增

30% +9.0%

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

The probability of the UAE leaving the GCC by 2026 surged by 9% to 30%, driven by renewed market focus on the UAE's increasingly independent foreign policy and growing economic rivalry with Saudi Arabia. 阿联酋在2026年前脱离海合会的概率跳升9%至30%，主要受市场重新评估阿联酋日益独立的外交政策及其与沙特阿拉伯日益增长的经济竞争驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • UAE's independent foreign policy
  • Growing economic competition with Saudi Arabia
  • Speculation on internal GCC diplomatic friction
  • 阿联酋独立外交政策
  • 与沙特经济竞争加剧
  • 海合会内部外交摩擦猜测
An UAE exit would fundamentally reshape regional power dynamics, economic alliances, and security architecture in the Middle East. 阿联酋的退出将彻底重塑中东地区的权力格局、经济联盟及安全架构。
Vol 24h: $4,250 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued divergence in foreign policy and economic interests between UAE and other GCC members will make an exit inevitable. 阿联酋与海合会其他成员国在外交和经济利益上的持续分歧将使其退出成为必然。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strategic regional stability and economic benefits of GCC membership will ultimately keep the UAE within the bloc. 海合会成员国带来的战略区域稳定和经济利益最终将使阿联酋留在该组织内。
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500
#27 · Score 93

MSFT Surges on Strong AI Growth 微软AI业务强劲增长

50% +9.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?

Microsoft's probability to hit $435 in May rose 9.0% after its Q3 earnings topped estimates. Despite an initial stock dip, the market focused on the robust 123% year-over-year growth in its AI business. 微软5月触及435美元的概率上升9.0%，因其第三季度财报超出预期。尽管股价初期有所下跌，市场仍聚焦于其AI业务同比增长123%的强劲表现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q3 revenue and EPS topped analyst estimates.
  • AI business grew 123% year-over-year.
  • Investor confidence in long-term AI strategy.
  • 第三季度营收和每股收益超出分析师预期。
  • AI业务同比增长高达123%。
  • 投资者对AI长期战略充满信心。
Microsoft's performance is a key indicator for the broader tech sector and AI investment trends, influencing investor confidence in future growth. 微软的业绩是衡量更广泛科技行业和AI投资趋势的关键指标，影响投资者对未来增长的信心。
Vol 24h: $752 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q3 earnings beat and 123% AI business growth signal robust future performance, driving MSFT towards $435. 强劲的第三季度业绩和123%的AI业务增长预示未来表现强劲，推动MSFT迈向435美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High AI spending ($190 billion) could pressure margins and profitability, hindering MSFT's climb to $435. 巨额AI支出（1900亿美元）可能对利润率造成压力，阻碍MSFT达到435美元。
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#28 · Score 93

Bond Actor Silence Deepens 邦德演员选角无进展

78% +9.0%

No one announced as next James Bond?

The probability of no next James Bond actor being announced has risen to 78%, driven by intense media focus on the new "007 First Light" video game and a complete absence of film casting news. 下任詹姆斯·邦德演员未公布的概率升至78%，主要原因是媒体焦点集中在新游戏《007：第一道曙光》，且完全缺乏电影选角消息。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Overwhelming media attention on new "007 First Light" video game.
  • Complete absence of any news regarding the next film's actor casting.
  • Franchise's current focus appears to be on gaming, not film production.
  • 媒体对新游戏《007：第一道曙光》的压倒性关注。
  • 完全没有关于下一部电影演员选角的消息。
  • 邦德系列目前的重点似乎在游戏而非电影制作。
This indicates a strategic shift or extended timeline for the iconic film franchise, potentially prioritizing diversified entertainment ventures over immediate film continuity. 这表明这个标志性电影系列可能正在进行战略调整或延长制作周期，优先发展多元化娱乐项目而非立即推出电影续集。
Vol 24h: $577 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued silence from Eon Productions on film casting, alongside sustained game success, will push probability higher. 电影制片方Eon Productions持续保持选角沉默，加上游戏持续成功，将推高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A credible leak or official hint about a potential actor or imminent announcement would lower the probability. 出现关于潜在演员或即将公布的可靠泄密或官方暗示，将降低概率。
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#29 · Score 84

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

99% +7.8%

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $667,268 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#30 · Score 84

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

53% +8.0%

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,615 Polymarket ↗
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#31 · Score 73

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee

28% -7.0%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,283 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#32 · Score 28

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?

13% +2.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,765 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。