AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 20, 2026 20:58 UTC
#1 · Score 933

Mahmood's Chancellor Bid Ends 马哈茂德财相之路终结

0% -92.8%

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?


Shabana Mahmood's probability of becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 plummeted to 0% after Andy Burnham was confirmed as the new Prime Minister. This indicates a different individual has been appointed or confirmed for the role, contradicting earlier expectations. 随着安迪·伯纳姆被确认为英国新首相,沙巴纳·马哈茂德在2026年成为英国财政大臣的概率暴跌至0%。这表明已有其他人被任命或确认担任此职,与此前预期相悖。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Andy Burnham confirmed as UK Prime Minister.
  • Subsequent appointment of a different Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  • Invalidation of prior media reports anticipating Mahmood's appointment.
  • 安迪·伯纳姆被确认为英国首相。
  • 随后任命了其他财政大臣。
  • 此前媒体关于马哈茂德任命的报道被证伪。
This signifies the formation of Andy Burnham's new cabinet and the direction of the UK's economic policy under his leadership. 这标志着安迪·伯纳姆新内阁的组建,以及其领导下英国经济政策的方向。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A future cabinet reshuffle under PM Burnham could still see Mahmood appointed Chancellor by 2026. 伯纳姆首相未来内阁改组仍可能在2026年前任命马哈茂德为财政大臣。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Andy Burnham's confirmed premiership has led to the appointment of a different Chancellor, definitively excluding Mahmood from the role. 安迪·伯纳姆确认就任首相后已任命其他财政大臣,彻底排除了马哈茂德担任此职的可能性。

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500
#2 · Score 819

Ethereum Surges Past $1,900 Target 以太坊突破1900美元目标

100% +81.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20?


The probability of Ethereum being above $1,900 by July 20 surged to 100% from 18.5%, driven by extremely bullish crypto market sentiment. News of a Bitcoin price prediction eyeing $200,000 and the AlphaPepe presale nearing sell-out fueled this optimism. 以太坊在7月20日突破1900美元的概率从18.5%飙升至100%,主要受加密市场极度看涨情绪驱动。比特币价格预测目标20万美元以及AlphaPepe预售接近售罄的消息助长了这种乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price prediction eyes $200,000
  • AlphaPepe presale nears sell-out
  • XRP long-term bullish outlook
  • 比特币价格预测目标20万美元
  • AlphaPepe预售接近售罄
  • XRP长期看涨前景
This significant probability shift indicates strong investor confidence and potential capital inflow into the broader cryptocurrency market. It suggests a renewed bullish cycle could be underway, impacting various digital assets. 这一显著的概率变化表明投资者对加密货币市场充满信心,并可能带来大量资金流入。这预示着新的牛市周期可能正在启动,将影响多种数字资产。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelming bullish crypto sentiment, fueled by Bitcoin's $200,000 prediction, will easily keep Ethereum above $1,900. 比特币20万美元的预测推动了极度看涨的加密市场情绪,将轻松支撑以太坊高于1900美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current optimism, broader equity market volatility or a sudden crypto sentiment shift could still push ETH below $1,900. 尽管目前市场乐观,但更广泛的股市波动或加密情绪突变仍可能将以太坊推至1900美元以下。

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500
#3 · Score 629

SPX July 20 Open Up 100% 标普500 7月20日开盘上涨100%

100% +62.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20?


S&P 500 futures are firmly positive for the July 20 open, driving the probability to 100%. Key factors include S&P 500 futures edging up and a recovery in the chip sector. 标普500指数期货在7月20日开盘前表现强劲,推动上涨概率升至100%。主要驱动因素包括标普500期货小幅上涨以及芯片板块的复苏。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 futures edge up (Yahoo Finance)
  • Oil prices turn lower (Yahoo Finance)
  • Chip sector shows recovery (Reuters)
  • 标普500期货小幅上涨 (雅虎财经)
  • 油价走低 (雅虎财经)
  • 芯片板块复苏 (路透社)
A strong opening for the S&P 500 could set a positive tone for the trading day, potentially influencing investor confidence ahead of key megacap earnings. 标普500指数的强劲开盘可能为当日交易定下积极基调,并可能在大型科技公司财报前影响投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Positive S&P 500 futures and recovering chip stocks indicate strong pre-market buying interest. 积极的标普500期货和芯片股复苏显示出强劲的盘前买盘兴趣。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions (Iran) or unexpected negative earnings news could reverse early gains. 地缘政治紧张或意外负面财报可能逆转早盘涨幅。

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500
#4 · Score 512

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of July 20 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +50.9%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of July 20 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#5 · Score 499

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1PM ET

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1PM ET


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#6 · Score 499

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?

96% +49.5%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#7 · Score 498

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 20? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 20?

98% +49.5%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 20?


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500
#8 · Score 483

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of July 2 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of July 2

100% +47.9%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of July 20 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#9 · Score 458

Meta Surges on Legal Victories Meta因法律胜利股价飙升

74% +45.5%

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 20?


Meta's 'Up' probability surged to 74% following favorable legal rulings within the last 24 hours. A federal judge tossed investor pump-and-dump scam allegations and allowed worker layoffs to proceed. Meta股价上涨概率飙升至74%,此前24小时内公司获得有利法律裁决。联邦法官驳回了投资者关于“拉高出货”骗局的指控,并允许公司继续裁员。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Judge dismissed pump-and-dump scam allegations (July 20).
  • Judge allowed Meta to proceed with worker layoffs (July 17).
  • Reduced legal liabilities and operational costs.
  • 法官驳回“拉高出货”骗局指控(7月20日)。
  • 法官批准Meta继续进行员工裁员(7月17日)。
  • 法律责任和运营成本显著降低。
These legal wins significantly reduce potential financial liabilities and operational hurdles for Meta, bolstering investor confidence in its near-term stability and profitability. It signals a clearer path forward for the company. 这些法律胜利显著降低了Meta潜在的财务和运营风险,增强了投资者对其近期稳定性和盈利能力的信心。这预示着公司未来发展道路更加清晰。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Dismissal of major scam allegations and approval of layoffs significantly reduce Meta's legal and operational risks, boosting investor confidence. 重大诈骗指控被驳回及裁员获批,显著降低了Meta的法律和运营风险,提振了投资者信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A recent outage across Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger could negatively impact user engagement and platform reliability perception. Facebook、Instagram和Messenger近期服务中断,可能影响用户参与度和平台可靠性认知。

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500
#10 · Score 454

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on July 20? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on July 20?

95% +45.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on July 20?


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500
#11 · Score 415

Chip Rebound Fuels SPY Optimism 芯片反弹提振SPY乐观情绪

78% +41.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 20?


SPY's "Up" probability surged by 41% to 78% for July 20, driven by a significant rebound in chip stocks and hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran tensions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose as oil prices eased despite ongoing hostilities. SPY在7月20日上涨的概率飙升41%至78%,主要受芯片股显著反弹以及美伊局势有望缓和的推动。尽管存在敌对行动,但随着油价回落,标普500和纳斯达克指数均录得上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Chip stocks rebound after sell-off
  • Hopes for US-Iran diplomacy ease oil prices
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq show gains
  • 芯片股在抛售后强劲反弹
  • 美伊外交希望缓解油价压力
  • 标普500和纳斯达克指数上涨
A sustained recovery in the tech sector, particularly chips, is crucial for broader market health, while geopolitical stability reduces market volatility. 科技板块特别是芯片的持续复苏对整体市场健康至关重要,而地缘政治稳定则能降低市场波动性。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued chip sector strength and successful diplomatic efforts with Iran will push SPY higher. 芯片板块持续走强以及美伊外交取得进展将推动SPY上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Renewed US-Iran hostilities or disappointing megacap earnings could quickly reverse market gains. 美伊冲突升级或大型科技公司财报不及预期可能迅速逆转市场涨势。

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500
#12 · Score 385

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?

81% +38.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#13 · Score 342

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 20 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 20

100% +34.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#14 · Score 333

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $163 Week of July 20 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $163 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +33.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $163 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#15 · Score 313

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $840 Week of July 20 2026 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $840 Week of July 20 2026

100% +30.9%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $840 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#16 · Score 293

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of July 20 2026? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +28.9%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of July 20 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#17 · Score 292

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July

75% +28.7%

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?


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500
#18 · Score 273

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026?

31% -27.0%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#19 · Score 262

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of July 20 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +25.9%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#20 · Score 258

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of July 20 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +25.4%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#21 · Score 253

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 20 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 20

100% +24.9%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?


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500
#22 · Score 246

Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?

34% +24.2%

Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?


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500
#23 · Score 245

Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31? Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?

37% +24.2%

Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?


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500
#24 · Score 214

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus

74% +21.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?


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500
#25 · Score 203

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24,

26% +20.0%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?


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500
#26 · Score 189

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

51% +18.5%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?


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500
#27 · Score 169

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?

47% -16.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?


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500
#28 · Score 169

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 20? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 20?

36% +16.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 20?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 159

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

42% +15.5%

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 155

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July

68% +15.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 65

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

42% +6.0%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。