AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 17, 2026 19:57 UTC
#1 · Score 848

Trump's H200 Clearance Ignites Ornn Index 特朗普批准H200销售，奥恩指数飙升

100% +84.5%

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $6.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

The Ornn H200 Index probability surged to 100% following news of former President Trump clearing Nvidia H200 sales to major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and Tencent. This significant US approval, despite Beijing's reported halt on deliveries, was interpreted as a massive boost for the chip's market potential. 奥恩H200指数概率飙升至100%，此前有消息称前总统特朗普批准英伟达H200芯片销售给阿里巴巴、腾讯等中国科技巨头。尽管北京方面据报暂停交付，但这一重要的美国批准被解读为芯片市场潜力的巨大提振。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump cleared Nvidia H200 sales to 10 Chinese companies.
  • Alibaba and Tencent named as key H200 chip buyers.
  • Market anticipates strong long-term H200 chip demand.
  • 特朗普批准英伟达H200销售给10家中国公司。
  • 阿里巴巴、腾讯被点名成为H200芯片主要买家。
  • 市场预期H200芯片长期需求强劲。
This market highlights the complex interplay of US-China tech policy, global AI chip demand, and its immediate impact on market valuations. 该市场凸显了中美科技政策、全球AI芯片需求及其对市场估值即时影响的复杂互动。
Vol 24h: $4,229 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump's clearance of Nvidia H200 sales to major Chinese firms signals immense demand and future market expansion, overcoming current delivery hurdles. 特朗普批准英伟达H200芯片销售给中国主要公司，预示着巨大需求和未来市场扩张，将克服当前的交付障碍。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Beijing's halt on H200 deliveries and Trump's statement on China's choice to not buy could severely limit actual sales and index growth. 北京暂停H200交付以及特朗普关于中国选择不购买的声明，可能严重限制实际销售和指数增长。
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500
#2 · Score 544

Ethereum Surges on Regulatory Clarity, Bitcoin Peak 以太坊因监管明朗和比特币新高飙升

100% +53.9%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 17?

The probability for Ethereum to be 'Up' on May 17 surged to 100% (+53.9% change) driven by the advancement of the 'Clarity Act' and Bitcoin hitting $82,000. This legislative progress signals a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. 以太坊在5月17日上涨的概率飙升至100%（24小时内上涨53.9%），主要受“清晰法案”推进和比特币触及82,000美元的驱动。这一立法进展预示着加密货币监管环境将更加有利。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Clarity Act advances, boosting crypto regulation
  • Bitcoin hits $82,000, signaling market strength
  • Coinbase leads crypto stock gains
  • “清晰法案”推进，利好加密监管
  • 比特币触及82,000美元，市场强劲
  • Coinbase引领加密股票上涨
The advancement of a 'Clarity Act' could establish a clearer regulatory framework for crypto, fostering institutional adoption and reducing market uncertainty. Bitcoin's new high often pulls altcoins like Ethereum upwards, indicating broader market health. “清晰法案”的推进可能为加密货币建立更明确的监管框架，促进机构采用并减少市场不确定性。比特币创新高通常会带动以太坊等山寨币上涨，表明市场整体健康。
Vol 24h: $68,556 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Advancing 'Clarity Act' provides strong regulatory tailwinds, attracting more institutional capital and boosting Ethereum's price. “清晰法案”的推进提供了强劲的监管顺风，吸引更多机构资金并推高以太坊价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current optimism, unforeseen legislative setbacks or a sharp Bitcoin correction could introduce significant volatility. 尽管目前市场乐观，但意外的立法挫折或比特币的急剧回调仍可能带来显著波动。
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500
#3 · Score 510

Bitcoin Up Probability Crashes 比特币上涨概率暴跌

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 17th has plummeted to 0% after a 50.4% drop. This was driven by Bitcoin's price falling to $79,370.24 and major miner Bitdeer selling 198.3 BTC. 比特币在5月17日上涨的概率暴跌50.4%至0%。这主要受比特币价格跌至79,370.24美元及主要矿商Bitdeer出售198.3枚比特币影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price drops to $79,370.24.
  • Bitdeer sold 198.3 BTC, zero holdings.
  • Dow falls 400 points on oil fears.
  • 比特币价格跌至79,370.24美元。
  • Bitdeer出售198.3枚BTC，持仓归零。
  • 道指因油价担忧下跌400点。
This shift reflects growing investor caution in the crypto market, potentially signaling a broader risk-off sentiment impacting digital assets. 这一转变反映出加密市场投资者谨慎情绪加剧，可能预示着数字资产面临更广泛的避险情绪。
Vol 24h: $259,886 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Clarity Act advancement could boost institutional adoption, driving Bitcoin price higher. 《清晰法案》推进或促进机构采用，推高比特币价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Major miner Bitdeer selling 198.3 BTC and broader market weakness signal continued downward pressure. 主要矿商Bitdeer出售比特币及大盘疲软预示持续下行压力。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $45,972 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11AM ET

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11AM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $42,669 Polymarket ↗
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500
#6 · Score 500

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET

0% -49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $40,402 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 380

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17?

0% -37.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $85,946 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 170

Ethereum $2,100 Dip Probability Plummets 以太坊跌至$2100概率骤降

2% -16.5%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?

The probability of Ethereum dipping to $2,100 by May 17th has sharply fallen to 2%. This significant 16.5 percentage point drop suggests robust upward price action or strong technical support for ETH, moving it further from the target dip price. 以太坊在5月11-17日期间跌至2100美元的概率已急剧降至2%。这一16.5个百分点的显著跌幅表明以太坊价格走势强劲或技术支撑稳固，使其远离目标下跌价位。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ethereum's price holding firm or rising
  • Reduced perception of downside risk
  • Broader crypto market strength
  • Technical support levels above $2,100
  • 以太坊价格坚挺或上涨
  • 交易者看跌风险感知降低
  • 加密市场整体走强
  • 技术支撑位高于$2100
This indicates growing trader confidence in Ethereum's current price floor and upward momentum. It reflects a shift away from short-term bearish outlooks for ETH. 这表明交易者对以太坊当前价格底部和上涨动能的信心增强。它反映了短期看跌前景的转变。
Vol 24h: $38,983 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected macro economic downturn or a major crypto hack could trigger a rapid ETH price decline. 突发宏观经济冲击或重大加密安全事件可能引发以太坊价格快速下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Sustained ETH price strength above $2,100, driven by positive market sentiment, makes a dip highly improbable. 以太坊价格持续强劲，远高于$2100，使得跌破该水平的可能性极低。
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500
#9 · Score 168

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

84% +16.5%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,152 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 128

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

48% +12.5%

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,051 Polymarket ↗
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500
#11 · Score 124

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?

50% +12.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,707 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 114

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of

86% +11.0%

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $28,445 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 106

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

30% -10.0%

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $350,176 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 93

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

38% +9.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

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Vol 24h: $1,235 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 81

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

14% -7.5%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $343,468 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 64

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

16% +6.0%

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $9,018 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 57

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

13% +5.0%

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $4,315,580 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 56

US bank failure by May 31? US bank failure by May 31?

4% -5.2%

US bank failure by May 31?

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Vol 24h: $2,263 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 54

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

4% -5.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $31,671 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 54

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

24% +5.0%

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $4,790 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 54

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

57% -5.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $4,123 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 54

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

18% -5.0%

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $3,159 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 52

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

49% +4.9%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $5,912 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 49

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso

8% +4.6%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,799 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 49

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

20% -4.5%

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $15,669 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 44

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

80% +4.0%

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $12,248 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 44

Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Will Solana dip to $80 in May?

52% +4.0%

Will Solana dip to $80 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,208 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 41

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?

3% -3.8%

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,606 Polymarket ↗
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500
#29 · Score 39

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

46% -3.5%

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $28,803 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 39

Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?

100% +3.5%

Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $68,937 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 23

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

11% +2.0%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $754 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。