AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 24, 2026 10:58 UTC
#1 · Score 461

Trump Signals Hormuz Blockade Lift 特朗普暗示解除霍尔木兹封锁

66% +45.5%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

The probability surged to 66% following multiple reports on May 24, 2026, quoting Donald Trump stating a peace deal with Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is "largely negotiated." This directly indicates an imminent announcement aligning with the market's condition. 市场概率飙升至66%，此前多家媒体于2026年5月24日报道，唐纳德·特朗普表示与伊朗的和平协议“基本达成”，其中包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。这直接预示着符合市场条件的公告即将发布。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump's May 24, 2026, statements on Iran deal
  • Multiple major news outlets confirming Trump's remarks
  • Direct mention of Strait of Hormuz reopening
  • 特朗普2026年5月24日关于伊朗协议的声明
  • 多家主流新闻机构证实特朗普的言论
  • 声明中直接提及霍尔木兹海峡将开放
Lifting the blockade would significantly impact global oil markets and shipping routes, potentially easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and affecting energy prices worldwide. 解除封锁将对全球石油市场和航运路线产生重大影响，可能缓解中东地缘政治紧张局势并影响全球能源价格。
Vol 24h: $627,113 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump's explicit and repeated public declarations about a "largely negotiated" deal directly confirm his intent to lift the blockade by the deadline. 特朗普明确且多次公开声明协议“基本达成”，直接证实他有意在截止日期前解除封锁。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite Trump's claims, final negotiations could still falter, or Iran might introduce new demands, preventing a definitive announcement by May 31, 2026. 尽管特朗普声称，最终谈判仍可能破裂，或伊朗提出新要求，导致无法在2026年5月31日前发布最终公告。
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500
#2 · Score 443

US-Iran Deal Boosts Rial Hopes 美伊协议提振里亚尔预期

68% +44.0%

Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?

The probability of USD falling to 1.7M Iranian rials surged by 44% to 68% following reports of a finalized US-Iran deal. FXStreet cited Iranian media and Al-Arabiya on the imminent announcement, driving market optimism. 随着美伊协议据报已敲定，美元兑伊朗里亚尔跌至170万的概率飙升44%至68%。FXStreet援引伊朗媒体和Al-Arabiya报道称，协议即将公布，提振了市场乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reported US-Iran deal finalization
  • Growing market "peace hopes"
  • Anticipation of sanctions relief
  • Pakistani mediation in deal talks
  • 美伊协议据报已最终敲定
  • 市场普遍抱有“和平希望”
  • 对制裁解除的预期
  • 巴基斯坦在协议中介
A US-Iran agreement would profoundly impact global oil markets, regional stability, and Iran's economic outlook. It could also significantly alter Iranian citizens' purchasing power. 美伊协议将深刻影响全球石油市场、地区稳定及伊朗经济前景。它也将显著改变伊朗公民的购买力。
Vol 24h: $1,995 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The confirmed US-Iran deal will unleash strong rial appreciation, pushing the USD/IRR exchange rate down to 1.7M. 美伊协议一旦确认，将引发里亚尔大幅升值，推动美元兑里亚尔汇率跌至170万。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Deal reports might be premature or fail, causing continued rial depreciation and keeping the USD/IRR rate above 1.7M. 协议报道可能为时过早或破裂，导致里亚尔持续贬值，美元兑里亚尔汇率维持在170万以上。
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500
#3 · Score 438

TSLA Surges on Strong 2026 Outlook 特斯拉2026前景强劲飙升

94% +43.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of May 25 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting $427.50 by May 2026 surged to 94% due to strong projected 2026 revenue data and a bullish overall market. Key drivers include a reported $96.8B Tesla revenue forecast for 2026 and the Dow closing at a record high. 特斯拉股价在2026年5月前达到427.50美元的概率飙升至94%，主要受2026年强劲营收预测数据和整体牛市驱动。关键事件包括特斯拉2026年968亿美元的营收预测和道琼斯指数创历史新高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tesla's projected $96.8B revenue for 2026.
  • Overall market strength; Dow hits record high.
  • FSD regulatory clarity for European sales.
  • Tesla identified as a key AI stock near buy points.
  • 特斯拉2026年预计营收968亿美元。
  • 整体市场强劲，道指创历史新高。
  • 欧洲FSD销售监管障碍消除。
  • 特斯拉被视为AI领域重要买入点股票。
This movement reflects growing investor confidence in Tesla's future financial performance and its position within a booming AI-driven economy. It suggests market belief in Tesla's ability to execute on its growth strategies. 这一变化反映了投资者对特斯拉未来财务表现及其在人工智能驱动经济中地位的信心日益增强。它表明市场相信特斯拉有能力执行其增长战略。
Vol 24h: $1,450 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong 2026 revenue projections and FSD expansion in Europe provide clear pathways for TSLA to exceed $427.50. 2026年强劲营收预测和欧洲FSD扩张为特斯拉突破427.50美元提供了明确路径。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen competition, regulatory setbacks, or a broader market downturn could prevent TSLA from reaching the target. 意外竞争、监管挫折或更广泛的市场低迷可能阻止特斯拉达到目标。
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500
#4 · Score 410

NG Price Drop Looms 天然气价格或将探底

70% +40.5%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?

The probability of Natural Gas hitting a $2.90 low in May surged by 40.5% to 70%, driven by growing concerns over a weakening economy. Record low consumer sentiment and rising inflation worries signal potential reduced industrial demand for natural gas. 天然气在5月触及2.90美元低点的概率飙升40.5%至70%，主要受经济疲软担忧加剧驱动。消费者信心跌至历史新低和通胀担忧预示工业天然气需求可能减少。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Record low consumer sentiment signals economic slowdown.
  • Rising inflation worries may curb industrial NG demand.
  • Market anticipates potentially bearish U.S. storage data.
  • 消费者信心创历史新低预示经济放缓。
  • 通胀担忧加剧可能抑制工业天然气需求。
  • 市场预期美国天然气库存数据或利空。
A significant drop in natural gas prices would impact energy producers' profitability and could influence electricity generation costs, potentially offering some relief to consumers amidst broader inflation concerns. 天然气价格大幅下跌将影响能源生产商的盈利能力，并可能影响发电成本，在普遍通胀背景下为消费者带来一定缓解。
Vol 24h: $37,984 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Weakening consumer sentiment and inflation concerns point to reduced industrial demand, increasing the likelihood of NG prices falling to $2.90. 消费者信心低迷和通胀担忧预示工业需求减少，增加天然气价格跌至2.90美元的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 European supply tightness and potential for robust US demand could keep NG prices elevated above the $2.90 low. 欧洲供应紧张及美国需求强劲潜力，可能使天然气价格维持在2.90美元低点之上。
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500
#5 · Score 314

Bitcoin Surges on Major Corporate Holdings 比特币因巨头持仓飙升

66% +31.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?

Bitcoin's probability to exceed $76,000 jumped 31% due to revelations of significant corporate and high-profile individual holdings. SpaceX's nearly $1.5 billion Bitcoin hoard and the Trump family's American Bitcoin holding over 7,500 BTC fueled this optimism. 比特币价格在5月28日突破7.6万美元的概率飙升31%，主要受大型企业和知名个人持仓消息驱动。SpaceX持有近15亿美元比特币，以及特朗普家族公司持有超7500枚比特币的消息，极大地提振了市场乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX holds nearly $1.5B in Bitcoin.
  • Trump family's firm holds 7,500+ BTC.
  • Crypto news targets Bitcoin $250,000.
  • SpaceX持有近15亿美元比特币。
  • 特朗普家族公司持仓超7500枚BTC。
  • 市场预测比特币目标价25万美元。
These disclosures signal increasing mainstream institutional adoption and confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, potentially driving broader market interest and investment. It validates Bitcoin as a legitimate asset for major corporations and influential figures. 这些披露表明主流机构对比特币的长期价值信心增强，可能推动更广泛的市场兴趣和投资。它验证了比特币作为大型企业和有影响力人物的合法资产地位。
Vol 24h: $6,153 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Major corporate and political family Bitcoin holdings signal strong institutional demand and confidence, likely pushing prices above $76,000. 巨头企业和政治家族的比特币持仓，预示着强大的机构需求和信心，有望推动价格突破7.6万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The rally might be a short-term reaction to news, vulnerable to profit-taking or failure to sustain momentum above $76,000 by May 28. 本次上涨可能仅是短期消息驱动，易受获利了结影响，难以在5月28日前站稳7.6万美元。
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500
#6 · Score 313

SPY Surges on Strong Market Momentum 标普强劲上涨，信心大增

70% +31.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?

SPY's probability of being up on May 26 surged to 70% following an 8th straight week of S&P 500 gains. UBS's upgraded S&P 500 forecast, citing robust consumer spending and AI demand, significantly boosted confidence. 标普500指数连续第八周上涨，SPY在5月26日上涨的概率飙升至70%。瑞银上调标普500年度预测，理由是消费者支出强劲和AI需求旺盛，极大地提振了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500's 8th consecutive weekly gain
  • UBS raised S&P 500 forecast on AI, spending
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record high
  • Hopes for US-Iran breakthrough
  • 标普500指数八连涨
  • 瑞银上调标普预测
  • 道指创历史新高
  • 美伊突破希望
This strong market performance, backed by analyst upgrades and economic optimism, suggests sustained investor confidence. It reflects a belief in continued corporate earnings growth and economic resilience. 这种强劲的市场表现，加上分析师上调预测和经济乐观情绪，表明投资者信心持续。它反映了对企业盈利持续增长和经济韧性的信念。
Vol 24h: $1,283 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 S&P 500's consistent gains and UBS's optimistic forecast on consumer spending and AI demand will drive SPY higher. 标普500持续上涨及瑞银对消费和AI的乐观预测将推动SPY走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Profit-taking after an 8-week rally or unexpected geopolitical shifts could reverse recent gains. 八周连涨后获利回吐或意外地缘政治事件可能逆转近期涨幅。
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500
#7 · Score 308

Tech IPO Boom Fuels Stripe Valuation 科技IPO热潮推升Stripe估值

88% +30.5%

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?

The probability of Stripe's valuation hitting $172.5B by June 30 surged 30.5% to 88%, driven by news of massive projected valuations for upcoming tech IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI. These headlines signal robust investor appetite for leading private technology firms. Stripe估值在6月30日前达到1725亿美元的可能性飙升30.5%至88%，主要受SpaceX和OpenAI等科技公司IPO预期估值巨大的新闻推动。这些头条新闻表明投资者对领先的私营科技公司需求旺盛。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX IPO projected to be immense
  • OpenAI's high valuation fuels tech optimism
  • Strong investor demand for private tech
  • SpaceX IPO预期估值巨大
  • OpenAI高估值提振科技乐观情绪
  • 投资者对私营科技需求强劲
This movement indicates a broader market confidence in the growth potential and valuation of top-tier private technology companies, potentially setting a precedent for future tech IPOs. 这一变化表明市场对顶级私营科技公司的增长潜力和估值充满信心，可能为未来的科技IPO设定先例。
Vol 24h: $2,581 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong investor appetite for high-growth tech, evidenced by SpaceX and OpenAI valuations, will lift Stripe's valuation. SpaceX和OpenAI估值显示投资者对高增长科技需求强劲，将推升Stripe估值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader economic slowdown or a less-than-expected performance from other tech IPOs could dampen Stripe's valuation. 经济放缓或其它科技IPO表现不及预期，可能抑制Stripe估值增长。
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500
#8 · Score 300

S&P 500 Nears 7500 Target 标普500逼近7500目标

86% +29.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

The probability of S&P 500 (SPY) hitting $750 (implying 7500 for the index) in May surged to 86% due to the index's current value of 7492.46, placing it just points away from the target. This was reinforced by an 8th straight week of gains and UBS lifting its annual forecast. 标普500 (SPY) 在5月触及750美元（暗示指数7500点）的概率飙升至86%，主要原因是指数已达7492.46点，距离目标仅咫尺之遥。此外，标普500已连续第八周上涨，且瑞银上调了年度预测。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 index at 7492.46, just points away from 7500 target.
  • S&P 500 posted 8th straight week of gains, signaling strong momentum.
  • UBS lifted S&P 500 forecast on robust consumer spending and AI demand.
  • 标普500指数达7492.46点，距7500目标仅咫尺之遥。
  • 标普500指数实现连续第八周上涨，显示强劲势头。
  • 瑞银因消费和AI需求上调标普500年度预测。
This market reflects strong investor confidence in corporate earnings and economic growth, particularly driven by AI demand and consumer spending. Reaching this milestone could signal continued market strength. 该市场反映了投资者对企业盈利和经济增长的强劲信心，尤其受AI需求和消费支出的推动。达到此里程碑可能预示市场将持续走强。
Vol 24h: $52,003 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 S&P 500 is currently at 7492.46, making the 7500 target almost certain to be hit within May. 标普500指数已达7492.46点，5月内触及7500目标几乎板上钉钉。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden negative economic shock or unexpected geopolitical event could halt the rally before the target is officially reached. 突发的负面经济冲击或地缘政治事件可能在目标达成前阻止涨势。
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500
#9 · Score 280

Israel Airspace Closure Probability Plummets 以色列空域关闭概率骤降

10% -27.5%

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

The probability of Israel closing its airspace by May 31 significantly decreased to 10% from 37.5% in 24 hours. This sharp drop was primarily driven by Israel's swift deportation of hundreds of international flotilla activists, as reported by The Washington Post and The Times of Israel, signaling a de-escalation of a potentially volatile international incident. 以色列在5月31日前关闭空域的概率在24小时内从37.5%显著降至10%。这一急剧下降主要归因于以色列迅速驱逐数百名国际船队活动人士，据《华盛顿邮报》和《以色列时报》报道，此举标志着潜在国际事件的降级。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Swift deportation of flotilla activists
  • De-escalation of international tensions
  • Avoidance of further confrontation
  • 迅速驱逐船队活动人士
  • 国际紧张局势得到缓解
  • 避免进一步军事对抗
Closing airspace would severely impact international travel and trade, signaling a major security crisis or extreme geopolitical isolation. The current de-escalation reduces immediate regional instability concerns. 关闭空域将严重影响国际旅行和贸易，预示着重大安全危机或极端地缘政治孤立。当前局势降级减少了区域不稳定的即时担忧。
Vol 24h: $217,372 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new, severe security threat or direct military escalation could force Israel to close its airspace. 新的严重安全威胁或直接军事升级可能迫使以色列关闭空域。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued diplomatic management of international incidents and lack of direct threats will keep airspace open. 持续通过外交手段处理国际事件且无直接威胁，将使空域保持开放。
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500
#10 · Score 275

Hormuz Traffic Normalization Hopes Rise 霍尔木兹海峡通航恢复希望增

71% +27.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 surged 27% to 71%, primarily driven by Iran's assertions of increasing transits under its control. This move comes despite other reports indicating ongoing disruptions and long-term recovery timelines. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月31日前恢复正常的可能性飙升27%至71%，主要受伊朗声称其控制下的过境量增加所驱动。尽管有其他报告指出持续中断和长期恢复时间表，市场仍出现此变化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran claims increasing Hormuz transits.
  • IEA warns of 'red zone' oil market by July.
  • Anticipation of de-escalation to ease oil supply.
  • 伊朗声称霍尔木兹过境量增加。
  • IEA警告7月石油市场将入“红区”。
  • 市场预期局势降级以缓解石油供应。
Normalization of Hormuz traffic is crucial for global energy security and trade stability, impacting oil prices and supply chains worldwide. Continued disruption risks significant economic repercussions. 霍尔木兹海峡交通正常化对全球能源安全和贸易稳定至关重要，影响全球油价和供应链。持续中断将带来严重的经济后果。
Vol 24h: $277,211 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's claims of increasing transits, coupled with global pressure from dwindling oil stocks, could force a return to normal operations. 伊朗声称过境量增加，全球油储压力或促航运恢复。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 UAE's forecast of no full flows until 2027 and continued low transit numbers suggest normalization by July 31 is unlikely. 阿联酋预测2027年前难恢复，当前船只稀少，恢复正常希望渺茫。
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500
#11 · Score 274

AAPL Probability Soars on Market Rally 苹果股价预测概率飙升

86% +27.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?

The probability of Apple (AAPL) hitting $312 in May surged by 27.0% to 86%, driven by a robust broader market rally and significant institutional investment. The Dow Jones closed at a record high, and the S&P 500 posted its eighth consecutive week of gains. 苹果（AAPL）在5月达到312美元的概率飙升27.0%至86%，主要受强劲大盘上涨和机构大额投资推动。道琼斯指数收盘创历史新高，标准普尔500指数连续第八周上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Dow Jones closed at a record high
  • S&P 500 achieved 8th straight week of gains
  • Field & Main Bank boosted Apple stock position
  • 道琼斯指数创下历史新高
  • 标普500指数连续八周上涨
  • Field & Main银行增持苹果股票
This movement reflects strong investor confidence in Apple's near-term performance, buoyed by a bullish market environment. Institutional buying signals a positive outlook for the company's stock value. 这一走势反映了投资者对苹果近期表现的强烈信心，得益于看涨的市场环境。机构买入预示着该公司股票价值的积极前景。
Vol 24h: $8,318 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained broad market strength and continued institutional buying could propel AAPL towards the $312 target. 持续的大盘强势和机构持续买入可能推动苹果股价接近312美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $312 target is highly ambitious, and any market correction or 'Weak Near-Term Sentiment' could reverse gains. 312美元的目标极具挑战性，任何市场回调或“近期情绪疲软”都可能逆转涨幅。
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500
#12 · Score 266

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

60% +26.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $699,495 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 263

Rocket Lab Soars on Space Force Deal 火箭实验室获美太空军大单

68% +26.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in May?

The probability of RKLB hitting $148 in May surged to 68% following Rocket Lab's significant win of its first GEO satellite production contract from the U.S. Space Force. This major contract, alongside recent successful satellite deployments, significantly boosted investor confidence. 随着火箭实验室赢得美国太空军首个地球同步轨道卫星生产合同，RKLB在5月达到148美元的概率飙升至68%。这项重大合同以及近期成功的卫星部署，显著提振了投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S. Space Force GEO satellite production contract win
  • Successful launch of ninth Synspective satellite
  • Strategic expansion into satellite manufacturing market
  • 赢得美国太空军GEO卫星生产合同
  • 成功发射第九颗Synspective卫星
  • 战略性拓展至卫星制造市场
This contract marks Rocket Lab's strategic expansion beyond launch services into the lucrative satellite manufacturing sector, diversifying revenue and solidifying its position as an integrated space solutions provider. 这项合同标志着火箭实验室战略性地将其业务从发射服务扩展到利润丰厚的卫星制造领域，实现收入多元化，并巩固其作为综合性空间解决方案提供商的地位。
Vol 24h: $2,994 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The U.S. Space Force GEO contract and successful launches signal strong growth, increasing the perceived likelihood of a substantial price surge. 美国太空军GEO合同和成功发射预示强劲增长，提升市场对股价大幅上涨的预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite positive news, achieving a $148 valuation in May requires an unprecedented market re-rating or corporate action, making the target highly speculative. 尽管消息积极，但5月达到148美元估值需前所未有的市场重估或公司行动，目标高度投机。
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500
#14 · Score 263

Market Rally Boosts Apple Outlook 市场上涨提振苹果前景

66% +26.0%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 26?

The probability for Apple (AAPL) to close higher on May 26th surged by 26% to 66%, primarily driven by a robust broader market rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, and the S&P 500 posted its eighth consecutive week of gains. 苹果(AAPL)在5月26日收涨的概率飙升26%至66%，主要受强劲的整体市场反弹推动。道琼斯工业平均指数创下历史新高，标准普尔500指数也实现了连续第八周上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Dow Jones closes at record high
  • S&P 500 gains 8th straight week
  • AI momentum drives broader markets
  • 道指创下历史新高
  • 标普500指数连涨八周
  • AI动能推动大盘上涨
This upward movement reflects strong investor confidence in the overall economy and major tech companies, signaling a potentially sustained bullish trend ahead of the holiday weekend. 这一上涨反映了投资者对整体经济和主要科技公司的强大信心，预示着在假期周末前可能出现持续的牛市趋势。
Vol 24h: $549 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued broad market strength, driven by AI momentum and strong economic data, will likely push AAPL higher. 持续的大盘强势、AI动能及强劲经济数据可能推动苹果股价走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Specific company earnings misses or unexpected negative news could reverse AAPL's gains. 特定公司财报不及预期或突发利空消息可能逆转苹果涨势。
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500
#15 · Score 259

Iran Airspace Closure Odds Drop 伊朗空域关闭概率下降

12% -25.2%

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

The probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 24 significantly decreased to 12% following reports of de-escalation. President Trump's statement that an Iran deal is 'largely negotiated' was the primary driver for this shift. 伊朗在5月24日前关闭空域的可能性显著降至12%，主要受局势缓和报道影响。美国总统特朗普称伊朗协议“基本谈妥”是此次概率下降的核心驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump: Iran deal 'largely negotiated'
  • UAE declares Gulf airspace open
  • Focus shifts to diplomatic progress
  • 特朗普称伊朗协议“基本谈妥”
  • 阿联酋表示海湾空域开放
  • 外交进展成为关注焦点
Closure of Iran's airspace would severely disrupt global aviation and signal a major escalation of regional tensions, impacting oil markets and international security. 伊朗空域关闭将严重扰乱全球航空，预示地区紧张局势重大升级，影响石油市场和国际安全。
Vol 24h: $1,396,132 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating Strait of Hormuz disputes or a breakdown in negotiations could still prompt Iran to close its airspace. 霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级或谈判破裂，仍可能促使伊朗关闭其空域。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued diplomatic progress and regional stability efforts will keep Iran's airspace open. 持续的外交进展和地区稳定努力将确保伊朗空域保持开放。
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500
#16 · Score 243

S&P 500 Nears $750 Target 标普500逼近750目标

74% +24.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 25 2026?

The S&P 500 is currently at 7492.46, just points away from the $750 target, driving a significant probability surge as the target week approaches. This follows an 8th consecutive week of gains and a raised 2026 forecast by UBS. 标普500指数目前报7492.46点，距离750美元目标仅咫尺之遥，随着目标周临近，推动预测概率大幅上升。此前，该指数已连续第八周上涨，且瑞银上调了2026年预测。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 at 7492.46, near $750 target.
  • S&P 500 posts 8th straight week of gains.
  • UBS lifts 2026 S&P 500 forecast.
  • 标普500指数已达7492.46点。
  • 标普500实现八周连涨。
  • 瑞银上调2026年标普500预测。
This reflects strong market confidence in sustained economic growth and corporate profitability, influencing investment strategies. 这反映了市场对经济持续增长和企业盈利的强烈信心，影响投资策略。
Vol 24h: $510 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 S&P 500 is at 7492.46, virtually at the $750 target, backed by strong market momentum. 标普500已达7492.46点，几乎触及750目标，市场动能强劲。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected negative news or minor profit-taking could cause a slight dip before hitting $750. 突发负面消息或小幅获利了结可能导致在触及750前小幅回调。
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500
#17 · Score 238

Pakistan Poised to Host US-Iran Meeting 巴基斯坦有望主办美伊会谈

65% +23.3%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

The probability surged to 65% as multiple reports confirm Pakistan's active mediation in ongoing US-Iran peace talks, with both sides reporting progress. The Jerusalem Post explicitly stated "Pakistan mediates" in recent discussions involving uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. 随着多方报道证实巴基斯坦积极斡旋美伊和谈并取得进展，该市场概率飙升至65%。《耶路撒冷邮报》明确指出，巴基斯坦正在调解有关铀和霍尔木兹海峡的最新讨论。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Pakistan's confirmed mediation role in US-Iran talks.
  • Reports of US-Iran progress on war talks.
  • Pakistani official Syed Mohsin Naqvi's direct engagement.
  • Pakistan's stated intent to achieve a breakthrough.
  • 巴基斯坦被证实积极斡旋美伊会谈。
  • 美伊和谈取得进展的报道。
  • 巴基斯坦官员赛义德·莫辛·纳克维直接参与。
  • 巴基斯坦寻求突破的明确意图。
A successful meeting could de-escalate regional tensions and establish Pakistan as a key diplomatic player in the Middle East. This could pave the way for broader stability. 成功会谈可缓解地区紧张局势，并确立巴基斯坦在中东的关键外交地位。这可能为更广泛的稳定铺平道路。
Vol 24h: $31,834 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Pakistan's confirmed, active mediation and reported progress in US-Iran talks make it the most logical next meeting location. 巴基斯坦被证实积极斡旋且美伊会谈取得进展，使其成为下次会议最可能的地点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 US or Iran could opt for a different neutral third country, or talks might collapse before a physical meeting is scheduled. 美伊可能选择其他中立国，或会谈在实际会议前破裂。
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500
#18 · Score 232

Google AI Price War Boosts GOOGL Outlook 谷歌AI价格战提振GOOGL前景

33% +22.9%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

The probability of GOOGL hitting $410 in May surged by 22.9 percentage points, reaching 33%, driven by news of Google triggering a $1 billion AI price war. This aggressive strategy aims to capture enterprise AI market share from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. GOOGL在5月触及410美元的概率飙升22.9个百分点，达到33%，此前有消息称谷歌发起10亿美元AI价格战。这一激进策略旨在从OpenAI和Anthropic等竞争对手手中夺取企业级AI市场份额。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Google's $1 billion AI price war initiative
  • Aggressive push for enterprise AI market share
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average hits record high
  • 谷歌发起10亿美元AI价格战
  • 积极争夺企业级AI市场份额
  • 道琼斯工业平均指数创历史新高
Google's move signals a critical phase in the AI competition, potentially reshaping the enterprise AI landscape and solidifying its position. This could significantly impact its future revenue streams. 谷歌此举标志着AI竞争进入关键阶段，可能重塑企业AI格局并巩固其地位。这可能对其未来收入流产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $2,878 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Google's aggressive AI market share grab will drive revenue growth and investor confidence, pushing GOOGL towards $410. 谷歌积极抢占AI市场份额将推动营收增长和投资者信心，促使GOOGL股价迈向410美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The AI price war could compress margins, negatively impacting profitability despite market share gains, hindering stock appreciation. AI价格战可能导致利润率受压，尽管市场份额增加，但盈利能力受损将阻碍股价上涨。
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500
#19 · Score 204

US-Iran Deal Hopes Surge 美伊协议希望大增

26% +19.8%

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 surged to 26% (+19.8%) following multiple reports that a deal is 'largely negotiated' or 'close to signing.' President Trump's social media announcement and detailed leaks from Axios and FT were key drivers. 美国与伊朗在5月31日前达成核协议的可能性飙升至26%（+19.8%），此前多方报道称协议已“基本谈妥”或“接近签署”。特朗普总统在社交媒体上的宣布以及Axios和英国《金融时报》的详细报道是主要推动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump announced deal 'largely negotiated'
  • Axios exclusive on deal details
  • FT/Reuters/NPR reports deal nearing
  • 特朗普宣布协议“基本谈妥”
  • Axios独家披露协议细节
  • FT/路透/NPR报道协议临近
A deal could de-escalate regional tensions, stabilize oil markets, and potentially reshape geopolitical alliances in the Middle East. 该协议可能缓解地区紧张局势，稳定石油市场，并重塑中东地缘政治格局。
Vol 24h: $648,244 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Multiple credible sources and President Trump indicate a deal is 'largely negotiated' and imminent. 多方可靠消息源和特朗普总统均表示协议已“基本谈妥”，即将达成。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The May 31 deadline is tight, and past negotiations have frequently collapsed despite being 'close'. 5月31日截止日期临近，且过往谈判即使“接近”也常告失败。
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500
#20 · Score 200

Hormuz Deal Hopes Surge 霍尔木兹协议希望大增

25% +19.5%

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

The probability for Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by May 31 surged following reports of a proposed US-Iran deal including strait opening during a ceasefire. Axios and Reuters reported on May 23 that a deal involving a 60-day ceasefire extension and Hormuz access is close. 市场对伊朗在5月31日前同意霍尔木兹海峡无限制通航的概率大幅上升，此前有报道称美伊拟议协议包含停火期间开放海峡。路透社和Axios在5月23日报道，一项涉及60天停火和霍尔木兹海峡通航的协议即将达成。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Axios/Reuters reported proposed US-Iran deal includes Hormuz opening.
  • Trump stated Iran deal 'largely negotiated' on May 22.
  • Unspecified Iranian source cited 'progress' in negotiations.
  • Axios/路透社报道美伊协议含霍尔木兹开放。
  • 特朗普5月22日称伊朗协议“基本谈妥”。
  • 未具名伊朗消息人士提及谈判“进展”。
Unrestricted shipping through Hormuz is crucial for global oil supply and maritime security, impacting energy markets and regional stability. 霍尔木兹海峡的无限制通航对全球石油供应和海上安全至关重要，影响能源市场和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $126,080 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Reports confirm a US-Iran deal, including Hormuz opening during a 60-day ceasefire, is largely negotiated and imminent. 报道证实美伊协议，包括60天停火期间开放霍尔木兹，已基本谈妥并即将达成。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite progress, former President Trump noted a 'dispute over strait reopening' which could delay or derail the agreement by May 31. 尽管有进展，特朗普指出“海峡重开存在争议”，可能导致协议无法在5月31日前达成。
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500
#21 · Score 194

Silver $80 May Target Surges 白银五月触及80美元概率飙升

64% +19.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?

The probability of silver hitting $80 in May jumped 19% to 64%, primarily driven by news of US inflation reaching a three-year high and a significant global supply deficit. Crux Investor highlighted these factors, increasing bullish sentiment for the precious metal. 白银五月触及80美元的概率飙升19%至64%，主要受美国通胀创三年新高以及全球白银供应短缺7.62亿盎司的消息推动。Crux Investor的报告显著提振了市场对白银的看涨情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US inflation at three-year high
  • 762 Moz silver supply deficit
  • Spot silver prices rising (Kitco)
  • 美国通胀创三年新高
  • 白银供应短缺7.62亿盎司
  • 现货白银价格上涨（Kitco）
Silver's price reflects both industrial demand and its role as a hedge against inflation, impacting manufacturing, technology, and investor portfolios globally. 白银价格反映了工业需求及其作为通胀对冲工具的作用，影响着全球制造业、科技行业和投资者投资组合。
Vol 24h: $8,338 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 High US inflation and a massive 762 Moz supply deficit strongly support silver's potential surge to $80 in May. 美国高通胀和7.62亿盎司的巨大供应短缺，强力支撑白银在五月冲高至80美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent Fed rate pressure and easing geopolitical risk premium could cap silver's upward momentum, preventing it from reaching $80. 美联储持续的利率压力和地缘政治风险溢价消退可能抑制白银涨势，使其难以达到80美元。
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500
#22 · Score 164

Trump's Iran Stance Dims Yemen Strike 特朗普对伊立场削弱以色列打击也门可能

8% -16.0%

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

The probability of an Israeli strike on Yemen by June 2026 dropped 16% to 8%, primarily driven by reports of former President Trump considering compromise with Iran and Prime Minister Netanyahu's declining influence over him. This suggests reduced US support for aggressive Israeli actions against Iranian proxies. 以色列在2026年6月前袭击也门的概率下降16%至8%，主要原因是前总统特朗普考虑与伊朗妥协，以及内塔尼亚胡总理对其影响力减弱。这表明美国对以色列打击伊朗代理人的激进行动支持减少。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netanyahu's waning influence over Trump
  • Trump considering Iran compromise
  • Israel's reliance on US interceptors
  • 内塔尼亚胡对特朗普影响力减弱
  • 特朗普考虑与伊朗达成妥协
  • 以色列对美国拦截器的依赖
This shift reflects evolving US-Israel relations and potential de-escalation paths with Iran, impacting regional stability and future conflict dynamics. 这一变化反映了美以关系演变及与伊朗潜在的降级路径，影响地区稳定和未来冲突动态。
Vol 24h: $5,480 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Significant Houthi escalation or a direct threat to Israeli interests could compel a retaliatory strike despite US reservations. 胡塞武装大幅升级或直接威胁以色列利益，可能促使以色列不顾美国保留意见进行报复性打击。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued US diplomatic efforts with Iran and Israel's focus on other fronts reduce the likelihood of a distant Yemen strike. 美国持续与伊朗进行外交努力，加上以色列将重心放在其他战线，降低了对遥远也门进行打击的可能性。
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500
#23 · Score 162

US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Surge 美伊和平协议希望大增

24% +15.5%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 2026 surged to 24% following multiple reports indicating both nations are close to a comprehensive agreement. Donald Trump's statement that a deal is "largely negotiated" further fueled optimism. 鉴于多方报道称美伊两国接近达成全面和平协议，美伊在2026年5月前达成永久和平协议的概率升至24%。唐纳德·特朗普声称协议“已基本谈妥”进一步提振了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reports of US-Iran nearing peace deal
  • Trump states deal "largely negotiated"
  • Bloomberg signals progress in talks
  • 多方报道称美伊接近达成和平协议
  • 特朗普称协议“已基本谈妥”
  • 彭博社报道谈判取得进展
A permanent peace deal between the US and Iran would significantly de-escalate Middle East tensions, potentially reshaping regional alliances and global energy markets. 美伊永久和平协议将显著缓解中东紧张局势，可能重塑地区联盟和全球能源市场格局。
Vol 24h: $6,823,789 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Widespread reports of a "largely negotiated" comprehensive deal, supported by signals of progress from both sides, strongly suggest a resolution is imminent. 广泛报道称协议“已基本谈妥”，且双方均发出进展信号，强烈预示解决方案即将达成。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite progress, unresolved issues and Trump's warning of potential military action highlight significant hurdles to a lasting agreement. 尽管谈判有进展，但未解决的问题及特朗普的军事警告，预示达成持久协议仍面临重大障碍。
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500
#24 · Score 155

US-Iran Deal Nears Completion 美伊核协议临近

36% +15.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 surged +15.0% to 36% following multiple reports indicating the two nations are close to a temporary agreement. President Trump's statement that a deal is "largely negotiated" and involves opening the Strait of Hormuz was a primary catalyst. 截至6月30日美伊核协议达成的可能性上升15.0%至36%，此前多方报道称两国正接近达成一项临时协议。特朗普总统宣布协议“基本谈妥”并涉及霍尔木兹海峡开放，是主要推动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump: Deal "largely negotiated"
  • Reports: US-Iran close to 60-day ceasefire
  • Proposed deal includes Strait of Hormuz opening
  • FT: Deal involves nuclear framework
  • 特朗普称协议“基本谈妥”
  • 报道：美伊接近60天停火
  • 协议包含霍尔木兹海峡开放
  • 金融时报：涉及核框架
A temporary deal could de-escalate regional tensions and potentially pave the way for a more comprehensive nuclear agreement. This impacts global energy markets and geopolitical stability. 临时协议有望缓解地区紧张局势，并为达成更全面的核协议铺平道路。这将影响全球能源市场和地缘政治稳定。
Vol 24h: $255,362 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 President Trump's direct confirmation of a "largely negotiated" deal strongly signals imminent agreement before the June 30 deadline. 特朗普总统直接确认协议“基本谈妥”，强烈预示6月30日前达成协议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The reported deal is a temporary 60-day ceasefire, not a comprehensive nuclear deal, making a June 30 *nuclear* deal less certain. 报道中的协议仅为60天临时停火，并非全面核协议，6月30日达成核协议仍存不确定性。
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500
#25 · Score 142

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

16% +13.7%

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $537,658 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#26 · Score 140

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

72% +13.5%

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $90,702 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 136

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16% -13.0%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $708,699 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 135

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

36% -13.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $35,990 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 134

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

38% +13.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,783 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 113

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

16% +10.7%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $745,042 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 79

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

18% -7.5%

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,595 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#32 · Score 43

OpenAI IPO Plans Accelerate OpenAI上市计划提速

76% +4.0%

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

The probability of OpenAI IPOing before 2027 increased to 76% after CNBC reported the company plans to go public as soon as September. This accelerated timeline, alongside Redpoint's comments on retail opportunity, fueled the rise. OpenAI在2027年前上市的概率升至76%，此前CNBC报道该公司最早可能在9月上市。这一加速的时间表，加上Redpoint高管对散户机遇的评论，推动了概率上升。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CNBC source: OpenAI targets IPO as soon as September.
  • Redpoint's Brescia highlights retail investor IPO opportunity.
  • NYT reports OpenAI in "A.I. Race to Go Public."
  • CNBC消息：OpenAI最早9月上市。
  • Redpoint高管强调OpenAI上市为散户带来机遇。
  • 《纽约时报》称OpenAI正参与“AI上市竞赛”。
An OpenAI IPO would be a landmark event for the AI industry, potentially setting new valuation benchmarks and offering public access to a leading AI innovator. OpenAI上市将是AI行业的里程碑事件，可能设定新的估值基准，并为公众提供投资领先AI创新者的机会。
Vol 24h: $2,729 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 OpenAI is actively preparing for an IPO, with reports indicating a target as early as September, driven by strong market interest. OpenAI正积极筹备上市，有报道称最早9月上市，市场兴趣浓厚是主要驱动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Market conditions could deteriorate, or OpenAI might opt for further private funding rounds, delaying or canceling an IPO. 市场状况可能恶化，或OpenAI选择更多私募融资，从而推迟或取消上市。
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。