AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 29, 2026 20:08 UTC
#1 · Score 706

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in July? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in July?

100% +70.2%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $4,615 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#2 · Score 634

SPX Down Open Certainty Rises 标普500开盘下跌几成定局

0% -62.9%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 29?

The probability of the S&P 500 opening up on July 29 plummeted to 0%, reflecting strong market conviction for a down opening. This dramatic shift is primarily driven by significant weakness in the semiconductor sector and investor caution ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve rates decision. 标普500在7月29日开盘上涨的概率骤降至0%，表明市场强烈预期将低开。这一剧烈转变主要由半导体板块显著疲软以及投资者在美联储利率决议前保持谨慎所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Semiconductor stocks rout (Bloomberg)
  • Anticipation of Fed rates decision (CNBC)
  • Magnificent 7 earnings test broader market
  • 半导体股票暴跌 (彭博社)
  • 美联储利率决议预期 (CNBC)
  • “七巨头”财报考验大盘
This extreme probability reflects high market uncertainty and potential volatility, signaling investor apprehension regarding key economic data and corporate performance. It indicates a strong consensus for a negative start to the trading day. 这种极端概率反映了市场高度不确定性和潜在波动性，预示投资者对关键经济数据和企业业绩的担忧。它表明市场对当日交易低开有强烈共识。
Vol 24h: $18,201 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings from other sectors could offset chip weakness, or the Fed decision could be perceived as dovish. 其他板块强劲财报或抵消芯片疲软，或美联储决议偏鸽派。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued semiconductor sector decline and a hawkish Fed stance could further depress market sentiment and broad index performance. 半导体板块持续下跌，以及美联储鹰派立场可能进一步打压市场情绪和大盘表现。
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500
#3 · Score 563

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of July 27 2026? Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +56.0%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $3,960 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 550

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29? Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?

100% +54.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $167,600 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 524

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 29? Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 29?

0% -51.9%

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $22,023 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 509

Bitcoin Plummets on Fed Hike Fears 比特币因美联储加息预期暴跌

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11AM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being 'Up' by July 29, 11 AM ET, dropped to 0% from over 50% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift was driven by overwhelming market expectations of a rate hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's FOMC decision today, which is seen as draining liquidity. 比特币在7月29日美国东部时间上午11点前上涨的概率在24小时内从50%以上跌至0%。这一剧烈变化主要受市场普遍预期美联储主席凯文·沃什今日FOMC会议将加息驱动，此举被视为将抽走市场流动性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipated Fed rate hike by Kevin Warsh.
  • Rate hike expected to drain market liquidity.
  • Bitcoin failed to hold $67,000 resistance.
  • Sentiment of current rally being a 'bull trap'.
  • 市场预期美联储凯文·沃什加息。
  • 加息预计将抽走市场流动性。
  • 比特币未能守住6.7万美元阻力位。
  • 当前反弹被视为“牛市陷阱”。
This movement highlights Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic policy, particularly liquidity conditions. It signals a strong market belief that tighter monetary policy will negatively impact risk assets. 此次波动凸显了比特币对宏观经济政策，特别是流动性状况的敏感性。它预示着市场强烈认为紧缩货币政策将对风险资产产生负面影响。
Vol 24h: $22,765 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unexpected dovish Fed decision or a weaker-than-expected rate hike could inject liquidity, pushing Bitcoin higher. 若美联储意外鸽派或加息幅度低于预期，可能注入流动性，推动比特币上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's expected rate hike will drain liquidity, confirming the 'bull trap' and driving Bitcoin lower. 美联储主席凯文·沃什预期加息将抽走流动性，证实“牛市陷阱”，导致比特币下跌。
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500
#7 · Score 509

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10AM ET

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10AM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $15,626 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 508

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of July 27 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +50.4%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $3,926 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 462

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

12% -45.6%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $1,100,250 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 453

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 27 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +45.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,761 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 441

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 29? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 29?

4% -43.8%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,837 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 440

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 29? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 29?

99% +43.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $14,373 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 438

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +43.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $1,885 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 427

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

100% +42.4%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,046 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 419

Ethereum Up or Down on July 29? Ethereum Up or Down on July 29?

0% -41.4%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $55,168 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 389

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 29? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 29?

0% -38.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $45,778 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 383

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026?

100% +38.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,174 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 313

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 29? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 29?

82% +31.0%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,366 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 304

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 29? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 29?

81% +30.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $4,897 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 303

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 29? Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 29?

80% +30.0%

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,164 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 295

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?

30% -29.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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Vol 24h: $46,516 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 278

TSLA Plunges Post-Earnings, Probability Shifts Down 特斯拉暴跌，概率骤降

24% -27.5%

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 29?

The probability of TSLA being up on July 29th plummeted to 24% as the stock fell below $300 and was the biggest single-day loser in the Mag7, down 12.37%. This sharp decline was driven by a rough post-earnings week, including a 38% EPS miss and negative free cash flow. 特斯拉7月29日上涨的概率骤降至24%，因股价跌破300美元，并成为七巨头中单日跌幅最大的股票，下跌12.37%。此次暴跌主要受财报后表现不佳、第二季度每股收益不及预期38%及负自由现金流驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • TSLA fell below $300 on July 29.
  • Biggest single-day loser in Mag7, down 12.37%.
  • 38% EPS miss and negative free cash flow.
  • 5 consecutive red days, stock down 19%.
  • 7月29日股价跌破300美元。
  • 七巨头中单日跌幅最大，下跌12.37%。
  • 第二季度EPS不及预期38%，自由现金流为负。
  • 连续5个交易日下跌，股价累计跌19%。
Tesla's performance is a key indicator for the broader EV market and investor confidence in growth stocks, impacting market sentiment for tech giants. 特斯拉的表现是电动汽车市场和投资者对成长股信心的关键指标，影响着科技巨头的市场情绪。
Vol 24h: $2,186 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Record Q2 deliveries and a new Texas solar deal could signal underlying strength and future growth potential. 第二季度交付量创纪录及德州太阳能新协议或预示潜在实力和未来增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Poor Q2 earnings (38% EPS miss, negative FCF) and a significant single-day drop below $300 confirm strong downward momentum. 第二季度财报不佳（EPS不及预期38%，自由现金流为负）及7月29日跌破300美元，确认强劲下行势头。
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500
#23 · Score 233

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

43% +22.8%

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $124,761 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#24 · Score 229

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

17% -22.5%

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $4,821 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 205

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?

30% -20.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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Vol 24h: $39,807 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 198

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 29? Meta (META) Up or Down on July 29?

70% +19.5%

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 29?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,464 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 193

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of July 27 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of July 27 2026?

46% +19.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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Vol 24h: $1,384 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 175

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?

19% +17.2%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $781 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 158

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of July 27 2 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of July 27 2

74% +15.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of July 27 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,229 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 155

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

34% -15.0%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $39,427 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 15

Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?

94% -1.1%

Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,909 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。