AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 25, 2026 20:06 UTC
#1 · Score 828

Houthis Shipping Threat Now Certain 胡塞武装袭击航运几成定局

100% +82.5%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?

The probability of Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 24, 2026, surged to 100% amid escalating US-Iran clashes over shipping routes. Recent headlines confirm Houthis are actively targeting Saudi tankers and impacting Red Sea shipping. 鉴于美国与伊朗在航运路线上的冲突升级，胡塞武装在2026年7月24日前成功袭击航运的概率飙升至100%。最新头条证实胡塞武装正积极瞄准沙特油轮，并影响红海航运。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US-Iran conflict escalates over shipping
  • Houthis actively target Saudi tankers
  • Red Sea shipping lanes now threatened
  • Hormuz tanker crossings significantly dropped
  • 美伊冲突因航运升级
  • 胡塞武装积极袭击沙特油轮
  • 红海航运航线受威胁
  • 霍尔木兹油轮通行量骤降
This market reflects severe geopolitical instability impacting global energy supplies and trade, with Brent crude already topping $100 a barrel. 该市场反映了严重的地缘政治不稳定，影响全球能源供应和贸易，布伦特原油已突破每桶100美元。
Vol 24h: $8,908 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained US-Iran conflict and Houthi capabilities ensure continued targeting of shipping by 2026. 美伊冲突持续及胡塞武装能力确保2026年前继续袭击航运。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic breakthroughs or overwhelming military intervention could neutralize Houthi capabilities before 2026. 外交突破或强大军事干预可能在2026年前消除胡塞武装威胁。
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500
#2 · Score 819

Houthis Secure Shipping Target Success 胡塞武装成功打击航运

100% +81.5%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?

The probability surged to 100% as escalating US-Iran clashes over shipping routes intensified, highlighted by Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal on July 23, 2026, believing it holds an advantage. This ongoing conflict, coupled with Houthi selective targeting and expanded threat to Red Sea lanes, confirms successful disruption by the market deadline. 随着美伊围绕航运路线的冲突升级，伊朗于2026年7月23日拒绝了美国的停火提议，认为其占有优势，导致该市场概率飙升至100%。持续的冲突，加上胡塞武装的选择性打击和红海航线威胁扩大，证实了在市场截止日期前成功实施了干扰。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran rejected US ceasefire on July 23, 2026, believing it has advantage.
  • US-Iran clashes escalated over shipping routes, 13th night of strikes.
  • Houthis selectively targeted shipping, allowing Chinese ships to pass.
  • Red Sea shipping lanes now under threat, expanding Houthi operational area.
  • 伊朗于2026年7月23日拒绝美国停火，认为其占优。
  • 美伊围绕航运冲突升级，已是第13晚空袭。
  • 胡塞武装选择性打击航运，允许中国船只通过。
  • 红海航线受威胁，扩大胡塞武装行动范围。
This outcome signifies a severe disruption to global maritime trade and energy supplies, potentially leading to increased shipping costs, insurance premiums, and geopolitical instability in a critical region. It underscores the ongoing challenges to international shipping security. 这一结果预示着全球海运贸易和能源供应将受到严重干扰，可能导致航运成本、保险费上涨，并加剧关键地区的地缘政治不稳定。它凸显了国际航运安全面临的持续挑战。
Vol 24h: $14,165 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on July 23, 2026, confirms continued Houthi operations and successful targeting by the deadline. 伊朗于2026年7月23日拒绝停火，证实胡塞武装将持续行动并在截止日期前成功打击。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden, unexpected de-escalation or successful international intervention could still prevent further Houthi targeting. 突然的、意想不到的局势降级或成功的国际干预仍可能阻止胡塞武装进一步打击。
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#3 · Score 619

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31,

94% +61.5%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $26,577 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#4 · Score 499

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 12PM ET

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 12PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $32,625 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#5 · Score 344

Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31? Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?

53% +34.2%

Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $642 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#6 · Score 205

Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

10% -20.0%

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $140,045 Polymarket ↗
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#7 · Score 199

Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings? Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?

58% -19.5%

Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $6,220 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#8 · Score 167

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

99% +16.2%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

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Vol 24h: $911,672 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#9 · Score 165

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

32% +16.0%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $168,923 Polymarket ↗
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#10 · Score 155

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%? Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?

36% +15.2%

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?

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Vol 24h: $1,989 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#11 · Score 145

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

35% +14.0%

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $52,296 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 139

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

50% -13.6%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

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Vol 24h: $1,413 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#13 · Score 139

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Septe Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Septe

70% +13.5%

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?

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Vol 24h: $3,243 Polymarket ↗
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#14 · Score 134

Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings? Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?

82% -13.0%

Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $5,900 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#15 · Score 114

Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings? Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?

62% -11.0%

Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $6,539 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#16 · Score 109

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

31% -10.4%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

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Vol 24h: $97,139 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 105

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

22% +10.0%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $87,633 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#18 · Score 104

Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings? Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?

57% -10.0%

Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $3,705 Polymarket ↗
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500
#19 · Score 100

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26? Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?

4% -9.6%

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?

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Vol 24h: $31,500 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 99

Will Solana dip to $70 in July? Will Solana dip to $70 in July?

32% -9.5%

Will Solana dip to $70 in July?

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Vol 24h: $7,213 Polymarket ↗
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500
#21 · Score 98

Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on Se Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on Se

36% -9.5%

Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $1,337 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#22 · Score 95

Iran full airspace closure by July 24? Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

0% -8.9%

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

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Vol 24h: $126,033 Polymarket ↗
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#23 · Score 89

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

15% +8.5%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,230 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#24 · Score 88

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an

44% +8.5%

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $1,301 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#25 · Score 84

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 26? Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 26?

99% +8.1%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 26?

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Vol 24h: $6,330 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#26 · Score 83

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?

53% -7.8%

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?

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Vol 24h: $67,202 Polymarket ↗
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500
#27 · Score 79

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?

37% +7.5%

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?

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Vol 24h: $8,533 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 78

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August

32% +7.5%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,920 Polymarket ↗
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#29 · Score 74

RipCars FDV above $750k one day after launch? RipCars FDV above $750k one day after launch?

98% +7.0%

RipCars FDV above $750k one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $2,380 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 69

Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings? Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?

89% -6.5%

Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $3,763 Polymarket ↗
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。