AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 08, 2026 19:43 UTC
#1 · Score 444

Iran Shipping Threat Surges 伊朗航运威胁骤升

76% +44.0%

Iran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping by August 9, 2026, surged to 76% following escalating Houthi attacks and direct Iranian naval coercion. Recent reports indicate Houthis likely sank an Indian cargo vessel and the IRGC Navy continues disruptive actions in the Strait of Hormuz. 鉴于胡塞武装袭击升级和伊朗海军直接施压，伊朗在2026年8月9日前成功袭击航运的可能性飙升至76%。最新报告显示，胡塞武装可能击沉了一艘印度货船，且伊朗革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡持续采取强制行动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthis likely sank Indian cargo vessel
  • IRGC Navy's coercive Strait actions
  • Houthis attacked Saudi oil tanker
  • 胡塞武装击沉印度货船
  • 伊朗海军霍尔木兹海峡强制行动
  • 胡塞武装袭击沙特油轮
Increased shipping disruptions in vital waterways could severely impact global trade, energy prices, and potentially trigger broader regional conflicts involving major powers. 关键航道航运中断加剧，可能严重影响全球贸易、能源价格，并可能引发更广泛的地区冲突。
Vol 24h: $4,567 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's proxies demonstrate escalating capabilities and direct naval actions continue, making successful targeting highly probable. 伊朗代理人能力升级，海军行动持续，成功袭击航运可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic efforts, like the Oman agreement, could still de-escalate tensions, preventing direct Iranian shipping attacks. 阿曼协议等外交努力可能缓和紧张局势，避免伊朗直接袭击航运。
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500
#2 · Score 324

XRP Probability Soars on Crypto Optimism XRP价格预测概率飙升

82% +32.0%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?

The probability of XRP exceeding $1.00 by August 14 surged by 32% to 82%, driven by a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and upcoming crypto-related corporate earnings. KITCO reported Bitcoin's "bullish consolidation" on August 7, while PowerCompute, a Bitcoin treasury company, scheduled its Q2 earnings call for August 14. XRP在8月14日突破1美元的概率在24小时内飙升32%至82%，主要受比特币看涨前景和即将到来的加密相关企业财报驱动。KITCO在8月7日报道比特币“看涨盘整”，而持有比特币的PowerCompute公司则宣布8月14日举行二季度财报电话会议。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • KITCO reported Bitcoin's "bullish consolidation" on August 7.
  • PowerCompute, a Bitcoin treasury firm, announced Aug 14 earnings call.
  • KITCO报道比特币8月7日“看涨盘整”。
  • 持有比特币的PowerCompute公司宣布8月14日财报。
The strong upward movement in XRP's probability reflects renewed investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market, potentially signaling a broader altcoin rally if Bitcoin maintains its positive momentum. XRP概率的显著上升反映了投资者对加密货币市场信心的恢复，如果比特币保持积极势头，这可能预示着更广泛的山寨币反弹。
Vol 24h: $5,637 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's continued bullish consolidation and positive news from Bitcoin treasury companies could push XRP above $1.00. 比特币持续看涨盘整及比特币持有公司利好消息，可能推动XRP突破1美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Macroeconomic risks or unexpected negative crypto news could reverse Bitcoin's trend, dragging XRP below $1.00. 宏观经济风险或加密领域负面消息，可能逆转比特币趋势，使XRP跌破1美元。
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500
#3 · Score 314

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12PM ET

20% -31.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12PM ET

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Vol 24h: $8,801 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 293

Over $5M committed to the Ryvo public sale? Over $5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?

6% -29.0%

Over $5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?

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Vol 24h: $1,302 Polymarket ↗
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500
#5 · Score 223

Canada GDP Growth Outlook Shifts 加拿大GDP增长前景转变

24% -22.0%

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?

The probability of Canada's June 2026 MoM GDP growth being between 0.0% and 0.1% has sharply declined by 22% to 24%, primarily driven by a reported -0.1% MoM Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June, suggesting significant weakness in a major economy that would impact Canada. 加拿大2026年6月GDP环比增长率介于0.0%至0.1%之间的可能性在24小时内骤降22%至24%，主要原因是6月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比下降0.1%，这表明主要经济体出现显著疲软，将影响加拿大。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • June PCE Price Index MoM at -0.1% signals weak consumption.
  • Implied economic slowdown in a major trading partner affecting Canada.
  • Expectations of Canada's June GDP growth falling below 0.0%.
  • 6月PCE价格指数环比下降0.1%预示消费疲软。
  • 主要贸易伙伴经济放缓对加拿大产生影响。
  • 预计加拿大6月GDP增长将低于0.0%。
This shift indicates growing concerns about the health of the Canadian economy, potentially signaling a contraction or very sluggish growth in June 2026, which could impact monetary policy and investment decisions. 这一转变表明市场对加拿大经济健康状况的担忧日益加剧，可能预示着2026年6月经济出现收缩或增长非常缓慢，这将影响货币政策和投资决策。
Vol 24h: $1,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger-than-expected non-consumption sectors or revised data could still place June GDP within the 0.0%-0.1% range. 尽管消费疲软，其他GDP组成部分或修正数据仍可能使6月GDP保持在0.0%-0.1%区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The reported -0.1% PCE MoM for June indicates a significant economic contraction, pushing June GDP growth well below 0.0%. 报告的6月PCE环比下降0.1%强烈预示经济显著收缩，将6月GDP增长推至远低于0.0%。
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500
#6 · Score 198

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?

24% -19.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,121 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 173

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $145 in August? Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $145 in August?

48% +17.0%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $145 in August?

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Vol 24h: $889 Polymarket ↗
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500
#8 · Score 143

Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?

48% +14.0%

Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $2,771 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 139

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 8, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 8, 2026?

16% +13.6%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 8, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $5,928 Polymarket ↗
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500
#10 · Score 137

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

0% -13.1%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $528,227 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 114

Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

49% +11.0%

Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $6,530 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 105

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

24% +10.0%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

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Vol 24h: $248,649 Polymarket ↗
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500
#13 · Score 105

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

28% -10.0%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

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Vol 24h: $38,139 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 103

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 in August? Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 in August?

17% -10.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 in August?

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Vol 24h: $511 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 93

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

52% +9.0%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $812 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#16 · Score 91

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9?

97% +8.6%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9?

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Vol 24h: $113,512 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 90

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?

3% -8.6%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?

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Vol 24h: $62,803 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 84

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10?

86% +8.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10?

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Vol 24h: $8,740 Polymarket ↗
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500
#19 · Score 83

Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August? Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?

30% +8.0%

Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?

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Vol 24h: $2,742 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#20 · Score 83

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August? Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?

24% -8.0%

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,890 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 78

Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?

37% +7.5%

Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $2,931 Polymarket ↗
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500
#22 · Score 78

Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month p Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month p

62% -7.5%

Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,611 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#23 · Score 74

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

76% +7.0%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

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Vol 24h: $26,639 Polymarket ↗
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500
#24 · Score 74

Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?

38% +7.0%

Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?

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Vol 24h: $4,569 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 73

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

44% -7.0%

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

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Vol 24h: $2,918 Polymarket ↗
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500
#26 · Score 73

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31?

32% -7.0%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,219 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 69

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

17% +6.6%

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,723 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 69

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

74% +6.5%

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,281 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 64

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?

8% -6.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,705 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#30 · Score 59

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

84% -5.5%

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,013 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 38

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?

14% -3.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,957 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。