AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 26, 2026 06:59 UTC
#1 · Score 380

Bitcoin Up Probability Plummets on Bearish News 比特币上涨概率因利空消息骤降

14% -37.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 26 dropped by 37.5% to 14%, primarily driven by billionaire Mark Cuban's sudden bearish stance and a major Bitcoin mining firm's liquidation of holdings. This sharp decline indicates a significant shift in short-term market sentiment. 比特币在5月26日上涨的概率骤降37.5%至14%，主要受亿万富翁马克·库班突然看空比特币，以及一家主要比特币矿企清仓持仓的事件影响。这一急剧下降表明短期市场情绪发生了重大转变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Billionaire Mark Cuban suddenly 'flips' bearish on Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer sold 201.6 BTC, now holds zero.
  • Forbes reported 'massive crash fear' hitting Bitcoin price.
  • 亿万富翁马克·库班突然看空比特币。
  • 比特币矿企Bitdeer出售201.6 BTC并清零持仓。
  • 福布斯报道“大规模崩盘担忧”冲击比特币价格。
This significant drop reflects growing investor apprehension and potential institutional selling pressure, indicating a volatile short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market. It highlights how influential figures and corporate actions can swiftly impact crypto predictions. 这一显著下降反映出投资者担忧加剧和潜在的机构抛售压力，预示着加密货币市场短期内波动性较大。它凸显了有影响力的人物和企业行为如何迅速影响加密货币预测。
Vol 24h: $78,030 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin trading near $80K and a $180,000 price prediction suggest underlying strength and future growth potential despite current fears. 比特币目前交易价接近8万美元，且有预测目标价达18万美元，显示出潜在的市场韧性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Mark Cuban's bearish 'flip' and Bitdeer's liquidation of 201.6 BTC signal significant selling pressure and investor fear. 马克·库班的看空转变和Bitdeer清仓201.6 BTC预示着显著的抛售压力和投资者恐慌。
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500
#2 · Score 338

South Korea AI Push Boosts EWY Outlook 韩国AI战略提振EWY前景

53% +33.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 in May?

EWY's probability of hitting $204 in May surged 33.5% to 53%. This significant increase was primarily driven by South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister Bae Kyung-Hoon emphasizing the nation's strategic focus on building AI strengths and critical partnerships with U.S. firms. EWY在5月份触及204美元的概率飙升33.5%至53%。这一显著增长主要受到韩国副总理裴京勋强调国家战略性地建设AI实力以及与美国公司建立关键伙伴关系的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • DPM Bae Kyung-Hoon's call for South Korea's AI strength
  • Emphasis on critical AI partnerships with U.S. firms
  • Government focus on AI wealth benefiting the public
  • 副总理裴京勋呼吁韩国建设AI实力
  • 强调与美国公司建立关键AI伙伴关系
  • 政府关注AI财富惠及公众
South Korea's economy relies heavily on technology and exports. Government commitment to AI development can significantly boost the tech sector, attracting investment and driving economic growth, directly impacting EWY. 韩国经济高度依赖科技和出口。政府对AI发展的承诺能够显著提振科技行业，吸引投资并推动经济增长，直接影响EWY的表现。
Vol 24h: $1,073 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong government commitment to AI development and U.S. partnerships will boost South Korea's tech sector growth. 政府对AI发展和美韩合作的坚定承诺将推动韩国科技行业增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Potential negative impacts from upcoming U.S. PCE data, China's PMI, or domestic labor tensions could cap gains. 即将公布的美国PCE数据、中国PMI或国内劳资紧张可能限制涨幅。
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500
#3 · Score 260

Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?

12% -25.5%

Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $122,245 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 235

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?

46% +23.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $32,324 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 219

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?

36% -21.5%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,903 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 191

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

25% +18.6%

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $104,388 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 160

BTC Up: High Yields & Dollar Weakness 比特币上涨：高收益与美元走弱

66% +15.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin rising by May 25, 11PM ET surged to 66%, up 15.5% in 24 hours. This strong bullish shift is primarily driven by Toobit's limited-time offer of 30% APR on BTC yields. 比特币在5月25日晚上11点前上涨的概率飙升至66%，24小时内上涨了15.5%。这一强劲的看涨转变主要受Toobit限时提供30%比特币年化收益率的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Toobit offers 30% APR on BTC yields.
  • Weaker US dollar supports alternative assets.
  • Toobit提供30%比特币年化收益。
  • 美元走弱支撑替代资产。
High yields incentivize Bitcoin adoption and holding, while a weakening dollar can shift investor focus towards decentralized assets as a hedge. 高收益激励比特币持有和采用，而美元走弱可能促使投资者转向去中心化资产避险。
Vol 24h: $32,796 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Toobit's attractive 30% APR yields will draw significant capital into Bitcoin, increasing demand and price. Toobit诱人的30%年化收益将吸引大量资金流入比特币，推高需求和价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Mark Cuban's expressed "massive crash fear" could trigger widespread investor panic and sell-offs. 马克·库班表达的“大规模崩盘恐惧”可能引发广泛的投资者恐慌和抛售。
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500
#8 · Score 139

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?

94% +13.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $24,760 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 139

RIKU IPO Probability Surges on Strong Data RIKU上市可能性因数据走强而飙升

79% -13.5%

Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026?

The probability of RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPOing before June 2026 decreased by 13.5% to 79%, indicating increased market confidence in an IPO. This shift is driven by RIKU's recent strong financial results and a robust Asia Pacific hospitality M&A market. RIKU餐饮集团在2026年6月前不上市的概率下降13.5%至79%，表明市场对其上市信心增强。这一变化主要受RIKU近期强劲的财务业绩和活跃的亚太酒店业并购市场驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RIKU's strong annual financial results reported on 2026/04/09.
  • Updated financial data on 2026/05/25 showing positive profit progress.
  • Robust Asia Pacific hospitality M&A, e.g., Goldman Sachs' KRW53B acquisition.
  • RIKU于2026/04/09公布的强劲年度财务业绩。
  • 2026/05/25更新的财务数据显示利润进展积极。
  • 亚太酒店业并购活跃，如高盛530亿韩元首尔酒店收购。
A potential RIKU IPO would provide liquidity for early investors, raise capital for expansion, and offer a new investment opportunity in the hospitality sector. RIKU的潜在上市将为早期投资者提供流动性，为扩张筹集资金，并在酒店业提供新的投资机会。
Vol 24h: $6,822 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Market volatility or internal strategic shifts could still delay RIKU's IPO plans, increasing 'not IPO' probability. 市场波动或内部战略调整仍可能推迟RIKU上市，增加“不上市”概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong financial performance and favorable market conditions make RIKU's IPO before June 2026 highly probable. 强劲的财务表现和有利的市场条件使RIKU在2026年6月前上市的可能性极高。
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500
#10 · Score 138

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?

56% -13.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,823 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 129

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

21% +12.5%

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,257 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 123

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?

46% -12.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,800 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 120

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

58% -11.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $137,494 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 120

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

27% +11.5%

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $293,730 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 114

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?

66% -11.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $5,854 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 113

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 25 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 25 2026?

85% +11.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 25 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,268 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 105

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

48% +10.0%

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

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Vol 24h: $45,408 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 100

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

3% -9.7%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

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Vol 24h: $9,770 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 100

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

0% -9.4%

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

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Vol 24h: $935,196 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 99

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?

10% -9.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $3,721 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 98

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

43% -9.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

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Vol 24h: $2,377 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 85

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

49% -8.1%

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $3,816 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 76

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

40% -7.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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Vol 24h: $494,019 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 75

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

7% -7.0%

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $63,791 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 74

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

17% +6.9%

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $64,982 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 73

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?

26% +7.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $802 Polymarket ↗
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500
#27 · Score 69

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?

86% +6.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $16,477 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 64

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

18% -6.0%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,512 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 63

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on

17% -6.0%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,276 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 60

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra

32% +5.5%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $218,060 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 18

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

11% +1.5%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,066 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。