AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Apr 21, 2026 06:30 UTC
#1 · Score 749

Tim Cook Out: Apple CEO Departure Confirmed 库克卸任：苹果CEO离职已确认

100% +74.5%

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

The probability for Tim Cook to be out as Apple CEO before 2027 surged to 100% following Apple's official announcement on April 20th, 2026, confirming his departure. This definitive news, specifying a September 1, 2026, exit date, directly resolves the market. 蒂姆·库克在2027年前卸任苹果CEO的市场概率飙升至100%，此前苹果于2026年4月20日正式宣布他将离职。这一明确消息，指定了2026年9月1日的离职日期，直接解决了市场预测。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple's official announcement of CEO change
  • Tim Cook's confirmed departure date: Sep 1, 2026
  • Departure date falls before the 2027 deadline
  • 苹果官方宣布CEO变动
  • 库克确认于2026年9月1日离职
  • 离职日期早于2027年期限
This marks a pivotal leadership transition for Apple, ending Tim Cook's more than decade-long tenure. It will significantly influence Apple's strategic direction, particularly in emerging areas like AI, and its long-term market valuation. 这标志着苹果一次关键的领导层过渡，结束了蒂姆·库克十多年的任期。它将显著影响苹果的战略方向，尤其是在人工智能等新兴领域，以及其长期市场估值。
Vol 24h: $81,033 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Official announcement confirms Tim Cook's departure by September 2026, making the outcome certain. 苹果官方宣布库克将于2026年9月离职，结果已确定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 No bear case exists as Apple officially confirmed Tim Cook's departure before 2027. 苹果已官方确认库克离职，看空理由不存在。
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500
#2 · Score 508

S&P 500 Hits $710 Probability Soars 标普500触及710概率飙升

100% +50.4%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of April 20 2026?

The S&P 500's probability of hitting $710 surged to 100% following a significant 50.4% increase. Key drivers include rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions and strong performance from Big Tech stocks. 标普500触及710的概率飙升至100%，涨幅达50.4%。主要驱动因素包括中东紧张局势下油价上涨和大型科技股的强劲表现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Oil prices spike due to Middle East tensions
  • Big Tech's $4 trillion market boost
  • Recent cease-fire optimism in Iran
  • 中东紧张局势导致油价上涨
  • 大型科技股市值提升400亿美元
  • 伊朗停火乐观情绪
These developments indicate potential volatility in the market, affecting investor confidence and economic stability. 这些发展表明市场可能出现波动，影响投资者信心和经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $1,509 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Big Tech continues to thrive, the S&P 500 could exceed expectations, raising the probability of hitting $710. 如果大型科技股持续强劲，标普500可能超出预期，增加触及710的概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger a market downturn, decreasing the likelihood of reaching $710. 地缘政治紧张局势加剧可能导致市场下跌，降低触及710的可能性。
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500
#3 · Score 504

Bitcoin Probability Plummets 比特币概率骤降

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10PM ET

Bitcoin's probability dropped to 0% amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and mixed Asian markets. Key events include rising oil prices and uncertainty over peace talks. 由于美国与伊朗紧张局势升级和亚洲市场表现不一，比特币概率降至0%。关键事件包括油价上涨和和平谈判的不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S.-Iran tensions re-escalating
  • Mixed performance in Asian markets
  • Oil prices rising amid geopolitical concerns
  • 美国与伊朗紧张局势升级
  • 亚洲市场表现不一
  • 地缘政治担忧导致油价上涨
These factors create uncertainty in global markets, impacting investor confidence in Bitcoin. 这些因素在全球市场中造成不确定性，影响投资者对比特币的信心。
Vol 24h: $62,007 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions could boost investor confidence and Bitcoin prices. 美国与伊朗紧张局势的缓解可能提升投资者信心，推动比特币价格上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability may lead to further declines in Bitcoin's value. 持续的地缘政治不稳定可能导致比特币价值进一步下跌。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Probability Plummets 比特币概率骤降

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9PM ET

Bitcoin's probability dropped to 0% amid geopolitical tensions. Uncertainty over the Iran war negotiations has spooked investors. 由于地缘政治紧张，比特币概率降至0%。伊朗战争谈判的不确定性让投资者感到恐慌。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Mixed Asian shares signal market uncertainty
  • Oil prices slipping indicate economic concerns
  • Geopolitical tensions affect investor confidence
  • 亚洲股市波动显示市场不确定性
  • 油价下滑表明经济担忧
  • 地缘政治紧张影响投资者信心
These factors contribute to a risk-off sentiment, impacting cryptocurrency investments significantly. 这些因素导致风险规避情绪，对加密货币投资产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $42,100 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin could rebound as investors seek riskier assets. 如果地缘政治紧张局势缓解，比特币可能反弹，吸引投资者。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued uncertainty in global markets may lead to further declines in Bitcoin's value. 全球市场的不确定性持续可能导致比特币价值进一步下跌。
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500
#5 · Score 424

Opendoor's April Price Prediction Shift Opendoor四月价格预测变化

0% -42.1%

Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in April?

Opendoor's probability of dipping to $3.50 is now at 0%, down 42.1%. This drastic change follows recent market volatility and investor reactions to housing market trends. Opendoor跌至$3.50的概率现为0%，下降42.1%。这一剧烈变化源于近期市场波动和投资者对房地产市场趋势的反应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent housing market data shows stabilization
  • Investor confidence in Opendoor's business model
  • Overall market recovery post-earnings reports
  • 近期房地产市场数据稳定
  • 投资者对Opendoor商业模式的信心
  • 财报后整体市场复苏
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors assessing Opendoor's future performance in a fluctuating real estate market. 理解这些动态对评估Opendoor在波动房地产市场中的未来表现至关重要。
Vol 24h: $1,216 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If housing prices continue to stabilize, Opendoor's stock may rebound significantly. 如果房价继续稳定，Opendoor的股票可能会显著反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any negative news regarding housing market trends could lead to further declines in Opendoor's stock. 任何关于房地产市场趋势的负面消息都可能导致Opendoor股票进一步下跌。
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500
#6 · Score 287

Iran's Threats Impact Shipping Market 伊朗威胁影响航运市场

0% -28.3%

Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Current probability of Iran targeting ships is at 0% after a significant drop. This follows recent statements from IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi about targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. 伊朗针对船只的概率目前为0%，大幅下跌。此变化源于IRGC指挥官阿赫迈德·瓦希迪关于在霍尔木兹海峡针对船只的威胁。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IRGC's threats to target vessels in Hormuz
  • US-Iran talks experiencing whiplash
  • Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls significantly
  • IRGC威胁在霍尔木兹海峡针对船只
  • 美伊谈判经历剧烈波动
  • 霍尔木兹海峡交通显著下降
The stability of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil supply and trade. Any escalation could lead to significant economic repercussions. 霍尔木兹海峡的航运稳定性对全球石油供应和贸易至关重要。任何升级都可能导致重大经济影响。
Vol 24h: $22,236 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If diplomatic talks stabilize, the probability of targeting ships could increase as tensions ease. 如果外交谈判稳定，针对船只的概率可能因紧张局势缓解而上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued aggressive rhetoric from Iran and military actions could solidify the current low probability of successful targeting. 伊朗持续的激进言辞和军事行动可能巩固当前针对船只的低概率。
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500
#7 · Score 279

NVIDIA's Stock Surge Predicted NVIDIA股票预测上涨

100% +27.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of April 20 2026?

NVIDIA's stock is currently projected to hit a low of $200 by April 20, 2026, driven by strong earnings reports and market optimism. Recent headlines suggest positive momentum in tech sectors, impacting NVDA's valuation. NVIDIA的股票预计将在2026年4月20日达到200美元的低点，受强劲财报和市场乐观情绪驱动。最近的头条新闻表明，科技行业的积极势头影响了NVDA的估值。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Strong earnings reports from tech companies
  • Increased demand for AI technologies
  • Positive market sentiment towards semiconductor stocks
  • 科技公司强劲的财报
  • 对AI技术需求增加
  • 半导体股票的市场乐观情绪
NVIDIA's performance is crucial for the tech sector, influencing investor confidence and market trends. NVIDIA的表现对科技行业至关重要，影响投资者信心和市场趋势。
Vol 24h: $17,094 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued growth in AI demand could push NVIDIA's stock even higher. 对AI需求的持续增长可能会进一步推高NVIDIA的股票。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A significant market correction could lead to a drop below $200. 市场大幅修正可能导致股价跌破200美元。
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500
#8 · Score 274

Bank of Mexico Rate Decision Outlook 墨西哥央行利率决策展望

82% +27.0%

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?

The probability of no change at the May meeting rose to 82% due to recent global inflation concerns. Events like the Iran war impacting inflation have heightened caution among central banks. 由于近期全球通胀担忧，5月会议不变的概率上升至82%。伊朗战争等事件加剧了各国央行的谨慎态度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran war raises global inflation risks
  • Bank Indonesia's rate hold signals caution
  • China's unchanged rates indicate stability
  • 伊朗战争提高全球通胀风险
  • 印尼央行的利率保持信号谨慎
  • 中国利率不变表明稳定
Central bank decisions influence economic stability and market expectations, affecting investment and consumer behavior. 央行决策影响经济稳定和市场预期，进而影响投资和消费行为。
Vol 24h: $9,014 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If inflation pressures ease, the Bank of Mexico may maintain current rates, increasing the probability further. 如果通胀压力减轻，墨西哥央行可能维持当前利率，进一步提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected inflation data could prompt a rate hike, reducing the likelihood of no change. 意外的通胀数据可能促使加息，降低不变的可能性。
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500
#9 · Score 271

Ceasefire Extension Unlikely Amid Tensions 停火延长可能性低

26% -26.5%

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Current probability dropped to 26% as Trump declared ceasefire unlikely to extend. Key drivers include Trump's comments and ongoing negotiations in Pakistan. 当前概率降至26%，因特朗普表示停火不太可能延长。关键驱动因素包括特朗普的言论和在巴基斯坦的紧急谈判。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump states ceasefire ends Wednesday evening
  • Negotiators sent to Pakistan for urgent talks
  • Iranian leadership shows signs of division
  • 特朗普称停火将于周三结束
  • 谈判代表前往巴基斯坦进行紧急会谈
  • 伊朗领导层出现分歧迹象
The outcome of these negotiations could significantly impact US-Iran relations and regional stability. 这些谈判的结果可能会显著影响美伊关系和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $536,560 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Successful negotiations in Pakistan could lead to an unexpected ceasefire extension. 巴基斯坦的成功谈判可能导致意外的停火延长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Trump's firm stance and deadline may lead to a breakdown in talks. 特朗普的坚定立场和最后期限可能导致谈判破裂。
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500
#10 · Score 240

Vance's Iran Meeting Gaining Momentum 范斯与伊朗会谈势头增强

92% +23.5%

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

JD Vance's probability of a diplomatic meeting with Iran surged to 92% as reports confirm his imminent travel to Islamabad for peace talks. Key drivers include his scheduled meeting with the Iranian delegation and clarifications from the White House regarding his involvement. JD范斯与伊朗的外交会谈概率飙升至92%，因他即将前往伊斯兰堡参加和平谈判。核心驱动因素包括他与伊朗代表团的会议安排及白宫对其参与的澄清。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Vance's imminent travel to Islamabad for talks
  • Confirmation of Iranian delegation's approval
  • White House clarification on Vance's role
  • 范斯即将前往伊斯兰堡进行会谈
  • 伊朗代表团获得批准的确认
  • 白宫对范斯角色的澄清
A successful meeting could ease tensions and reshape US-Iran relations, impacting regional stability and international diplomacy. 成功的会谈可能缓解紧张局势，重塑美伊关系，影响地区稳定和国际外交。
Vol 24h: $74,403 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Vance successfully meets the Iranian delegation, the probability of a meeting will likely increase further. 如果范斯成功与伊朗代表团会面，会议概率可能进一步上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If Vance's travel is delayed or canceled, the probability of a meeting will significantly decrease. 如果范斯的行程被延误或取消，会议概率将显著下降。
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500
#11 · Score 218

Apple's Stock Probability Drops Significantly 苹果股价概率大幅下跌

48% -21.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of April 20 2026?

The probability of Apple hitting $276 has decreased to 48%, down 21.5% in 24 hours. This shift follows a bearish sentiment from recent earnings forecasts and market reactions to tech sector performance. 苹果股价达到276美元的概率降至48%，24小时内下降21.5%。这一变化源于对科技行业盈利预期的悲观情绪和市场反应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Negative earnings forecasts for tech sector
  • Market reaction to Tesla's upcoming earnings call
  • General decline in tech stock valuations
  • 科技行业负面盈利预期
  • 市场对特斯拉财报的反应
  • 科技股估值普遍下降
A decline in Apple's stock probability could indicate broader concerns about tech sector growth, impacting investor confidence. 苹果股价概率的下降可能表明对科技行业增长的广泛担忧，从而影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $1,001 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong product launches or positive earnings could quickly reverse the downward trend. 强劲的产品发布或积极的盈利报告可能迅速扭转下行趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued poor performance in tech earnings could further depress Apple's stock price. 科技行业持续不佳的表现可能进一步压低苹果股价。
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500
#12 · Score 210

Ceasefire Probability Plummets Amid Threats 停火概率因威胁骤降

5% -20.4%

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

The probability of a ceasefire extension has dropped to 5% after Trump declared it unlikely. Key drivers include Trump's announcement of the ceasefire ending and threats against Iran. 特朗普宣布停火不太可能延长，概率降至5%。关键驱动因素包括特朗普的停火结束声明和对伊朗的威胁。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump announces ceasefire ends Wednesday evening
  • Trump labels further extension 'highly unlikely'
  • U.S. negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks
  • 特朗普宣布停火周三结束
  • 特朗普称进一步延长“极不可能”
  • 美国谈判代表将前往巴基斯坦
The outcome of the ceasefire impacts regional stability and U.S.-Iran relations significantly. 停火结果对地区稳定和美伊关系影响重大。
Vol 24h: $165,671 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations in Pakistan yield positive results, the probability of extension could rise. 如果巴基斯坦的谈判取得积极成果，延长的概率可能上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating threats from Trump may lead to an immediate end of the ceasefire. 特朗普的威胁升级可能导致停火立即结束。
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500
#13 · Score 194

Escalation in Iran-Israel Conflict 伊朗-以色列冲突升级

96% +18.8%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

The conflict's intensity has surged, with 13 US troops killed and over 300 wounded. Netanyahu's remarks indicate ongoing military efforts, impacting market probabilities. 冲突加剧，13名美国士兵遇难，300多人受伤。内塔尼亚胡的言论表明军事行动仍在继续，影响市场概率。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Thirteen US troops killed in Iran war
  • Netanyahu states fight against Iran is ongoing
  • Iran claims progress in US negotiations
  • 13名美国士兵在伊朗战争中遇难
  • 内塔尼亚胡称与伊朗的斗争仍在继续
  • 伊朗声称与美国谈判取得进展
The conflict's escalation could lead to prolonged instability in the region, affecting global oil markets and international relations. 冲突升级可能导致地区长期不稳定，影响全球石油市场和国际关系。
Vol 24h: $1,021,966 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations with Iran progress, the likelihood of conflict resolution increases significantly. 如果与伊朗的谈判取得进展，冲突解决的可能性将显著增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued military casualties and Netanyahu's commitment to fight may prolong the conflict, lowering resolution probabilities. 持续的军事伤亡和内塔尼亚胡的坚定立场可能延长冲突，降低解决概率。
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500
#14 · Score 164

Vance's Attendance at Iran Talks Uncertain 万斯出席伊朗会议不确定

92% +15.8%

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

J.D. Vance's attendance probability surged to 92% after the White House confirmed his involvement. This followed Trump’s comments about security concerns impacting Vance's trip. 在白宫确认万斯参与会议后，他的出席概率飙升至92%。这与特朗普关于安全问题影响万斯出行的评论有关。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • White House clarifies Vance's involvement in talks
  • Trump cites security concerns for Vance's absence
  • Recent reports indicate Vance's travel plans to Islamabad
  • 白宫澄清万斯参与会议
  • 特朗普提及安全问题影响万斯缺席
  • 近期报道显示万斯前往伊斯兰堡的计划
Vance's participation could influence US-Iran relations and diplomatic strategies. His role is pivotal in shaping the narrative around US foreign policy. 万斯的参与可能影响美伊关系和外交策略。他的角色在塑造美国外交政策叙事中至关重要。
Vol 24h: $99,792 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Vance travels as planned, his probability of attending could exceed 95%. 如果万斯按计划出行，他的出席概率可能超过95%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If security concerns escalate, Vance may withdraw, dropping the probability significantly. 如果安全问题升级，万斯可能撤回，概率将显著下降。
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500
#15 · Score 156

Israel-Iran Tensions Diminish 以色列-伊朗紧张局势缓解

2% -15.1%

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

The probability of Israeli military action against Iran has dropped to 2% following recent diplomatic engagements. Key drivers include US officials visiting Pakistan and Israel exposing an Iranian terror network. 以色列对伊朗的军事行动概率降至2%，因近期外交活动。关键驱动因素包括美国官员访问巴基斯坦和以色列曝光伊朗恐怖网络。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US officials visiting Pakistan for diplomacy
  • Israel exposing Iranian terror network abroad
  • IDF's recent actions in Lebanon causing backlash
  • 美国官员访问巴基斯坦进行外交
  • 以色列曝光海外伊朗恐怖网络
  • 以色列国防军在黎巴嫩的行动引发反弹
These developments suggest a potential de-escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, impacting regional stability. 这些发展表明以色列与伊朗之间的紧张局势可能缓解，影响地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $194,747 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased Iranian aggression could prompt a military response from Israel, raising the probability of action. 伊朗的侵略性增加可能促使以色列采取军事回应，提高行动概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Successful diplomatic efforts may further reduce the likelihood of military action by Israel. 成功的外交努力可能进一步降低以色列军事行动的可能性。
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#16 · Score 129

Caesars Acquisition Probability Drops 凯撒收购概率下降

76% -12.5%

Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?

Caesars' acquisition probability fell to 76% after extending discussions on the Fertitta takeover. The $18 billion deal's uncertainty has led to decreased confidence among investors. 凯撒收购概率降至76%，因延长了与Fertitta的谈判期。180亿美元交易的不确定性导致投资者信心下降。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Extended discussion period on Fertitta takeover
  • Investor concerns over deal valuation
  • Recent media mergers overshadowing Caesars
  • 延长Fertitta收购谈判期
  • 投资者对交易估值的担忧
  • 近期媒体合并事件影响凯撒
The outcome of this acquisition could significantly impact Caesars' market position and investor confidence in the gaming sector. 此次收购的结果可能显著影响凯撒的市场地位和投资者对博彩行业的信心。
Vol 24h: $5,179 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations with Fertitta progress positively, acquisition probability could rebound significantly. 如果与Fertitta的谈判进展顺利，收购概率可能大幅回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased skepticism about the deal's feasibility could lead to further declines in acquisition probability. 对交易可行性增加的怀疑可能导致收购概率进一步下降。
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500
#17 · Score 126

US-Iran Talks Face Major Setbacks 美伊会谈面临重大挫折

26% -12.0%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026, has dropped to 26% due to escalating tensions. Key events include the US seizing an Iranian ship and Iran's reluctance to attend peace talks in Pakistan. 到2026年4月21日，美伊外交会议的概率降至26%，因紧张局势升级。关键事件包括美国扣押伊朗船只及伊朗对在巴基斯坦参加和平谈判的犹豫。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US seizes Iranian ship, escalating tensions
  • Iran expresses doubt about attending talks
  • US negotiating team traveling to Pakistan
  • 美国扣押伊朗船只，紧张局势升级
  • 伊朗对参加谈判表示怀疑
  • 美国谈判团队前往巴基斯坦
The outcome of these talks could significantly impact regional stability and US-Iran relations. 这些谈判的结果可能会显著影响地区稳定和美伊关系。
Vol 24h: $881,109 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Iran decides to engage constructively in talks, the probability could rise significantly. 如果伊朗决定积极参与谈判，概率可能会显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued hostilities and Iran's refusal to negotiate could further decrease the likelihood of a meeting. 持续的敌对行为和伊朗拒绝谈判可能进一步降低会议的可能性。
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#18 · Score 115

MegaETH Token Launch Probability Rises MegaETH代币发布概率上升

28% +11.0%

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?

The probability of MegaETH launching a token by April 2026 has increased to 28%, driven by recent positive developments in the crypto space. Increased interest in decentralized finance and upcoming blockchain events may have contributed to this shift. 到2026年4月，MegaETH发布代币的概率已上升至28%，这得益于加密领域的积极发展。对去中心化金融的兴趣增加和即将举行的区块链活动可能促成了这一变化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Increased interest in decentralized finance projects
  • Upcoming blockchain conferences generating buzz
  • Positive market sentiment towards crypto innovations
  • 对去中心化金融项目的兴趣增加
  • 即将举行的区块链会议引发关注
  • 市场对加密创新的积极情绪
A successful token launch could significantly influence the crypto market and investor confidence in new projects. 成功的代币发布可能会显著影响加密市场和投资者对新项目的信心。
Vol 24h: $148,840 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If MegaETH announces partnerships or funding, the probability could rise sharply. 如果MegaETH宣布合作或融资，概率可能会迅速上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory challenges or negative market trends could hinder MegaETH's token launch plans. 监管挑战或市场负面趋势可能会阻碍MegaETH的代币发布计划。
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#19 · Score 95

Trump's Hormuz Blockade Announcement Uncertain 特朗普霍尔木兹封锁声明不确定

36% +9.0%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

The probability of Trump lifting the Hormuz blockade rose to 36% amid recent tensions. Key drivers include Trump's ship seizure announcement and Iran's reimposition of restrictions. 特朗普解除霍尔木兹封锁的概率上升至36%，因近期紧张局势加剧。核心驱动因素包括特朗普的船只扣押声明和伊朗重新实施限制。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump announced US seized Iran-flagged ship
  • Iran reversed course on reopening Hormuz
  • US-Iran ceasefire expiration with no deal
  • 特朗普宣布美国扣押伊朗旗船
  • 伊朗重新关闭霍尔木兹海峡
  • 美伊停火协议到期无协议
The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global oil supply, and any change in blockade status could significantly impact international relations and markets. 霍尔木兹海峡对全球石油供应至关重要，任何封锁状态的变化可能会显著影响国际关系和市场。
Vol 24h: $109,859 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations lead to a truce, Trump may announce lifting the blockade to stabilize the region. 如果谈判达成停火，特朗普可能会宣布解除封锁以稳定局势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating tensions and military actions could solidify the blockade, making an announcement unlikely. 紧张局势升级和军事行动可能巩固封锁，使声明不太可能。
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#20 · Score 86

Kon Knueppel's Rookie of the Year Odds Drop Kon Knueppel新秀奖概率下降

18% -8.2%

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Kon Knueppel's probability of winning the Rookie of the Year award has decreased to 18%, driven by recent NBA award announcements highlighting other players. The focus on established stars like Victor Wembanyama and the MVP finalists has overshadowed Knueppel's potential. Kon Knueppel赢得新秀奖的概率降至18%，主要受到NBA奖项公布的影响，其他球员备受关注。维克托·温班亚马的强劲表现掩盖了Knueppel的潜力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • NBA award finalists announced, favoring established players
  • Victor Wembanyama's strong playoff performance
  • Media attention on MVP candidates like Gilgeous-Alexander
  • NBA奖项最终候选人公布，偏向成熟球员
  • 维克托·温班亚马在季后赛中的出色表现
  • 媒体关注MVP候选人如吉尔杰斯-亚历山大
The Rookie of the Year award can significantly impact a player's career trajectory and marketability. A drop in odds may affect Knueppel's perceived value and future endorsements. 新秀奖对球员的职业生涯和市场价值有重大影响。概率下降可能影响Knueppel的市场形象和未来代言。
Vol 24h: $4,955 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Knueppel performs exceptionally in the upcoming season, his odds could rebound significantly. 如果Knueppel在即将到来的赛季表现出色，他的概率可能会显著回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued dominance by Wembanyama and other stars could further diminish Knueppel's chances. 温班亚马和其他明星的持续主导地位可能进一步削弱Knueppel的机会。
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#21 · Score 76

Netflix Stock Faces Downgrade Pressure 奈飞股票面临下调压力

0% -7.2%

Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $160?

Netflix's stock probability dropped to 0% after a disappointing Q1 earnings report. Morgan Stanley's downgrade and a murky subscriber outlook contributed to this decline. 奈飞的股票概率降至0%，因第一季度财报令人失望。摩根士丹利的下调和不明朗的订阅者前景导致了这一下跌。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Netflix stock
  • Disappointing Q1 earnings report
  • Uncertain forward subscriber outlook
  • 摩根士丹利下调奈飞股票评级
  • 第一季度财报不佳
  • 未来订阅者前景不明
The performance of Netflix is crucial as it reflects broader trends in the streaming industry and investor confidence. 奈飞的表现对流媒体行业的整体趋势和投资者信心至关重要。
Vol 24h: $4,994 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A strong recovery in subscriber growth could boost Netflix's stock above $160. 强劲的订阅增长恢复可能推动奈飞股票超过160美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued subscriber losses and negative analyst ratings may keep the stock below $160. 持续的订阅者流失和负面分析师评级可能使股票保持在160美元以下。
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#22 · Score 74

US-Iran Deal Probability Rises 美伊协议概率上升

76% +7.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 has increased to 76% due to President Trump's recent optimistic statements. His declaration of a potential peace deal and the urgency surrounding the ceasefire have shifted expectations positively. 美伊核协议在2027年前的概率已升至76%，因特朗普最近的乐观言论。特朗普宣称潜在和平协议的可能性以及停火的紧迫性使预期积极转变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump's claim of a peace deal imminent
  • Ceasefire deadline adds urgency to negotiations
  • Iran's reluctance to engage in talks
  • 特朗普声称和平协议即将达成
  • 停火截止日期增加谈判紧迫感
  • 伊朗不愿意参与谈判
A successful deal could stabilize regional tensions and impact global oil markets significantly. It also reflects the complexities of US-Iran relations under current leadership. 成功的协议可能会稳定地区紧张局势，并显著影响全球石油市场。这也反映了当前领导下美伊关系的复杂性。
Vol 24h: $12,181 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Trump successfully negotiates a deal, it could significantly enhance his political capital and lead to a higher probability. 如果特朗普成功谈判达成协议，将显著提升他的政治资本，概率将上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued distrust and Iran's refusal to negotiate could derail any potential agreements, lowering the probability. 持续的不信任和伊朗拒绝谈判可能会破坏任何潜在协议，降低概率。
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#23 · Score 73

Bitcoin Price Surge Driven by Fed Warnings 比特币价格因美联储警告上涨

95% +6.9%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24?

Bitcoin's probability of surpassing $70,000 has risen to 95% due to recent warnings about U.S. dollar hyperinflation. Key events include Elon Musk's comments and a significant purchase of 34,164 Bitcoin. 比特币超过70,000美元的概率已升至95%，因近期关于美元超通胀的警告。关键事件包括马斯克的评论和34,164个比特币的大额购买。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Elon Musk warns of U.S. dollar hyperinflation
  • 34,164 Bitcoin purchased for $2.54 billion
  • Former Fed chair issues inflation warning
  • 马斯克警告美元超通胀
  • 34,164个比特币以25.4亿美元购入
  • 前美联储主席发出通胀警告
These developments indicate growing institutional interest and potential inflationary pressures, which could significantly impact Bitcoin's value. 这些发展表明机构兴趣增加和潜在的通胀压力，可能显著影响比特币的价值。
Vol 24h: $12,470 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased institutional buying and inflation fears could push Bitcoin prices even higher. 机构购买增加和通胀担忧可能推动比特币价格进一步上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If inflation fears subside or regulatory concerns arise, Bitcoin's price could decline. 如果通胀担忧减弱或监管问题出现，比特币价格可能下跌。
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#24 · Score 68

Court Ruling Sparks Tariff Refund Debate 法院裁决引发关税退款争论

56% -6.5%

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

The probability of the court forcing Trump to refund tariffs dropped to 56% after a significant Supreme Court ruling. This ruling declared the Trump Administration's tariff imposition unconstitutional, leading to the opening of a refund portal for businesses. 法院强迫特朗普退款关税的概率降至56%，因最高法院裁定其关税征收违宪。此裁决导致企业退款门户的开启。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs unconstitutional
  • Refund portal for businesses opened recently
  • Potential refunds could total $166 billion
  • 最高法院裁定特朗普的关税违宪
  • 企业退款门户最近开放
  • 潜在退款总额可达1660亿美元
This case could set a precedent for executive power limits and impact future tariff policies significantly. 此案可能为行政权力限制设定先例，并显著影响未来的关税政策。
Vol 24h: $2,699 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If more businesses successfully claim refunds, it may strengthen the case for broader refunds. 如果更多企业成功申请退款，可能会加强更广泛退款的案例。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Legal challenges or delays in processing refunds could diminish the likelihood of forced refunds. 法律挑战或退款处理延误可能降低强制退款的可能性。
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500
#25 · Score 68

Amazon Stock Faces Uncertainty 亚马逊股票面临不确定性

3% -6.6%

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $265-$270 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?

Amazon's probability of closing at $265-$270 dropped to 3% due to negative market reactions. Key drivers include Goldman Sachs' cautious outlook and concerns over AI investments. 亚马逊在265-270美元区间的收盘概率降至3%，因市场反应负面。主要驱动因素包括高盛的谨慎展望和对AI投资风险的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Goldman Sachs' bearish stance on Amazon stock
  • Concerns over AI investment risks
  • Recent volatility in tech stocks
  • 高盛对亚马逊股票的看空态度
  • 对AI投资风险的担忧
  • 科技股近期波动
The performance of Amazon's stock impacts investor confidence and market trends, especially in the tech sector. 亚马逊股票的表现影响投资者信心和市场趋势，尤其是在科技领域。
Vol 24h: $788 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Amazon's AI investments yield positive results, stock prices could rebound significantly. 如果亚马逊的AI投资取得积极成果，股价可能会显著反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued market volatility and poor earnings could drive the stock lower. 持续的市场波动和糟糕的财报可能会导致股价下跌。
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#26 · Score 66

Bitcoin Price Surge Driven by Fed Warnings 比特币价格因美联储警告上涨

97% +6.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23?

Bitcoin's probability of exceeding $70,000 has surged to 97% due to significant purchases and inflation warnings. Notably, a former Fed chair's hyperinflation warning and Elon Musk's comments on the U.S. dollar have fueled bullish sentiment. 比特币超过70,000美元的概率已升至97%，主要由于重大购买和通胀警告。尤其是前美联储主席的超级通胀警告和马斯克对美元的评论，推动了市场的乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Former Fed chair warns of hyperinflation
  • Elon Musk's U.S. dollar concerns
  • Large Bitcoin purchase of $2.54 billion
  • 前美联储主席警告超级通胀
  • 马斯克对美元的担忧
  • 24亿美元的大额比特币购买
These developments highlight growing institutional interest and potential shifts in monetary policy, impacting Bitcoin's perceived value. 这些发展凸显了机构投资者的兴趣增加和货币政策潜在变化，影响比特币的价值认知。
Vol 24h: $21,216 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased institutional buying and inflation fears could drive Bitcoin prices even higher. 机构购买增加和通胀担忧可能进一步推高比特币价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If inflation fears subside or regulatory concerns arise, Bitcoin's price could decline. 如果通胀担忧减弱或监管问题出现，比特币价格可能下跌。
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500
#27 · Score 64

Iran-Bahrain Tensions Decline 伊朗与巴林紧张局势缓解

26% -6.0%

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

The probability of Iran striking Bahrain has decreased to 26% due to recent diplomatic developments and reduced military rhetoric. Key events include Iran's announcement of the Strait of Hormuz being open and Trump's threats being perceived as bluster. 由于近期外交进展和军事言辞减弱，伊朗袭击巴林的概率降至26%。关键事件包括伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡开放，以及特朗普的威胁被视为虚张声势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran claims Strait of Hormuz is open
  • Trump's threats seen as political posturing
  • Recent peace optimism in Middle East
  • 伊朗声称霍尔木兹海峡开放
  • 特朗普的威胁被视为政治姿态
  • 中东近期和平乐观情绪
The situation in the Middle East is volatile, and any escalation could have significant geopolitical implications, affecting global oil markets and regional stability. 中东局势动荡，任何升级都可能对全球石油市场和地区稳定产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $8,650 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased diplomatic engagement could lead to de-escalation and a lower likelihood of conflict. 增加的外交接触可能导致局势缓和，降低冲突可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Heightened military tensions or provocations could quickly raise the probability of an attack. 军事紧张局势或挑衅行为可能迅速提高袭击概率。
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500
#28 · Score 64

Cepeda's Odds Decline Amid Political Uncertainty 塞佩达的胜算下降

87% -6.0%

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Iván Cepeda Castro's winning probability dropped to 87% after a 6% decline. Recent progressive rallies in Europe may indicate shifting political dynamics affecting his campaign. 伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗的胜率降至87%，下降了6%。最近在欧洲的进步集会可能表明影响他竞选的政治动态变化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Progressive leaders rally in Barcelona, signaling potential shifts.
  • Political landscape in Colombia remains uncertain post-Petro.
  • International events may influence local voter sentiment.
  • 巴塞罗那的进步领导人集会，暗示潜在变化。
  • 佩特罗后哥伦比亚政治局势仍不确定。
  • 国际事件可能影响当地选民情绪。
The outcome of the election could significantly impact Colombia's political direction and governance, especially regarding progressive policies. 选举结果可能显著影响哥伦比亚的政治方向和治理，尤其是在进步政策方面。
Vol 24h: $6,866 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased support from progressive coalitions could boost Cepeda's chances, raising his probability. 来自进步联盟的支持增加可能提升塞佩达的胜算。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Emerging political challenges and opposition could undermine Cepeda's campaign, leading to lower probabilities. 新兴的政治挑战和反对派可能削弱塞佩达的竞选，导致胜率下降。
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500
#29 · Score 63

SpaceX IPO Buzz Boosts Market Cap Odds SpaceX IPO热度提升市值预期

54% +6.0%

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

SpaceX's market cap probability rose to 54% following news of a $75 billion IPO plan. Analyst meetings this week are generating excitement among investors. SpaceX计划筹集750亿美元的IPO，市场价值概率上升至54%。本周的分析师会议引发了投资者的兴奋。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion on IPO
  • Analyst meetings attracting Wall Street interest
  • Recent revenue growth despite net losses
  • SpaceX计划在IPO中筹集750亿美元
  • 分析师会议吸引华尔街关注
  • 尽管净亏损，近期收入增长
A successful IPO could reshape the space industry and impact related stocks significantly. Investor confidence in SpaceX's valuation is crucial for market dynamics. 成功的IPO可能重塑航天产业，并显著影响相关股票。投资者对SpaceX估值的信心对市场动态至关重要。
Vol 24h: $2,517 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased investor interest and strong revenue growth could push market cap above $2.0T. 投资者兴趣增加和强劲的收入增长可能推动市值超过2.0万亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High net losses and market skepticism could lead to a lower valuation on IPO day. 高额净亏损和市场怀疑可能导致IPO日估值降低。
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#30 · Score 62

Microsoft's Stock Surge Predicted 微软股价预测上涨

93% +5.9%

Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 20 above $390?

Microsoft's stock probability rose to 93% as investors anticipate strong earnings. The software sector's impressive rebound and upcoming earnings reports are key drivers. 微软股价概率上升至93%，投资者期待强劲的财报。软件行业的强劲反弹和即将到来的财报是关键驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Software stocks posted their best week in 25 years
  • Heavy week of U.S. corporate earnings ahead
  • Positive analyst outlooks on tech stocks
  • 软件股创下25年来最佳周表现
  • 美国企业财报周即将来临
  • 分析师对科技股的积极展望
A strong performance from Microsoft could indicate broader tech sector health, influencing investor confidence. 微软的强劲表现可能表明科技行业的整体健康，影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $903 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Microsoft reports strong earnings, the probability of exceeding $390 will likely increase further. 如果微软发布强劲财报，超过390美元的概率可能进一步上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Disappointing earnings or guidance could lead to a sharp decline in stock price. 财报或指引不及预期可能导致股价大幅下跌。
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#31 · Score 8

Fed Rate Cut Speculation Remains Low 美联储降息预期仍然低迷

1% +0.4%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Current probability of a 50+ bps rate cut after June 2026 is only 1%. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair has not significantly shifted market expectations. 2026年6月后降息50个基点以上的概率仅为1%。凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席并未显著改变市场预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kevin Warsh's commitment to inflation control
  • Market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts
  • Recent economic data showing resilience
  • 沃什承诺控制通胀
  • 市场对激进降息的怀疑
  • 近期经济数据表现强劲
The Fed's interest rate decisions influence economic growth and inflation, impacting investments and consumer behavior. A significant rate cut could signal economic distress. 美联储的利率决策影响经济增长和通胀，进而影响投资和消费行为。大幅降息可能意味着经济困境。
Vol 24h: $74,350 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Warsh signals a shift towards aggressive rate cuts during his confirmation, probabilities may rise significantly. 如果沃什在确认听证会上暗示将采取激进降息，概率可能显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued strong economic indicators could reinforce the Fed's cautious approach, keeping probabilities low. 持续强劲的经济指标可能强化美联储的谨慎态度，保持低概率。
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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。