AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 05, 2026 06:12 UTC
#1 · Score 728

SpaceX IPO Hype Surges SpaceX IPO热度飙升

93% +72.3%

Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?

The probability for a Billions FDV launch exceeding $300M one day after launch surged to 93%, driven by escalating speculation and reports surrounding a potential SpaceX IPO. Headlines detail a projected $75 billion spending spree and Nasdaq's 'fast entry' rule impacting SpaceX shares. 某公司上市后首日FDV超3亿美元且达数十亿的概率升至93%，主要受围绕SpaceX潜在IPO的猜测和报道推动。新闻指出，SpaceX IPO后预计将引发750亿美元的支出狂潮，且纳斯达克“快速入场”规则将影响其股价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Intensifying SpaceX IPO speculation.
  • Nasdaq's 'fast entry' rule boosting post-IPO demand.
  • Motley Fool report on $75B spending spree post-SpaceX IPO.
  • SpaceX IPO猜测加剧。
  • 纳斯达克“快速入场”规则或推高上市后需求。
  • Motley Fool报道SpaceX IPO后将引发750亿美元支出。
A SpaceX IPO would be one of the largest public debuts in history, significantly impacting capital markets and potentially fueling investments in related sectors like AI. SpaceX的IPO将是历史上规模最大的公开募股之一，对资本市场产生重大影响，并可能推动人工智能等相关领域的投资。
Vol 24h: $80,205 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong institutional demand and a massive private valuation ensure a multi-billion dollar FDV post-launch. 强大的机构需求和巨额私人估值确保上市后达到数十亿美元FDV。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 IPO delays, market volatility, or unexpected regulatory hurdles could depress initial valuation. IPO延迟、市场波动或意外监管障碍可能压低初始估值。
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500
#2 · Score 504

Bitcoin: White House, ETF Inflows Drive Surge 比特币：白宫、ETF流入推高

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10PM ET

Bitcoin's probability of being up by May 4th surged to 100% following strong bullish signals. A key driver was the White House's quiet confirmation of an 'imminent May Bitcoin price game-changer' and Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 with strong ETF inflows. 比特币在5月4日前上涨的概率飙升至100%，受强劲看涨信号推动。白宫悄然确认“5月比特币价格即将迎来巨变”以及比特币重回8万美元并伴随强劲ETF流入是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • White House confirms 'imminent May Bitcoin game-changer'
  • Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 with strong ETF inflows
  • USD weakness expected to persist into May
  • 白宫确认“5月比特币巨变”
  • 比特币重回8万美元，ETF流入强劲
  • 美元弱势预计将持续到5月
This movement suggests high confidence in Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, potentially signaling a significant market shift driven by institutional and macroeconomic factors. 这一走势表明市场对比特币短期走势充满信心，可能预示着由机构和宏观经济因素驱动的重大市场转变。
Vol 24h: $49,404 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 White House confirmation of an 'imminent May game-changer' combined with strong ETF inflows and a weakening USD provides overwhelming bullish momentum. 白宫确认“5月巨变”、强劲ETF流入和美元走弱共同提供了压倒性的看涨动力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the 100% probability, CoinDesk notes weak spot demand and trader hedging, suggesting potential for a pullback. 尽管概率达100%，CoinDesk指出现货需求疲软和交易员对冲，预示可能回调。
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500
#3 · Score 503

SK ETF Surges on Tech Innovation 韩国ETF因科技创新飙升

100% +50.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $163 Week of May 4 2026?

EWY's probability to hit $163 soared to 100% driven by LG Display's presentation of next-generation OLED technologies at SID Display Week 2026. This positive company-specific news, coupled with Wall Street's record highs, significantly boosted investor confidence. EWY触及163美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受LG Display在2026年SID显示周展示下一代OLED技术驱动。这一积极的公司特定消息，加上华尔街创下新高，显著提振了投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • LG Display's next-gen OLED tech unveiled at SID Display Week 2026.
  • Wall Street hitting new records, boosting global market sentiment.
  • JPMorgan's "best stock ideas" indicating strong analyst confidence.
  • LG Display在2026年SID显示周发布下一代OLED技术。
  • 华尔街创下新高，提振全球市场情绪。
  • 摩根大通“最佳股票”名单显示分析师信心强劲。
This movement highlights the significant impact of technological innovation from key South Korean companies on the broader market. It also reflects strong global economic tailwinds supporting Asian equities. 这一走势凸显了韩国主要公司的技术创新对整体市场的巨大影响。它也反映了支持亚洲股市的强劲全球经济顺风。
Vol 24h: $1,606 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 LG Display's cutting-edge OLED tech and strong global market momentum will propel EWY above $163. LG Display的尖端OLED技术和强劲的全球市场势头将推动EWY突破163美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected geopolitical tensions or a sharp tech sector correction could prevent EWY from reaching $163. 意外的地缘政治紧张或科技板块急剧回调可能阻止EWY达到163美元。
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500
#4 · Score 502

ABNB $140 Low Now 100% Likely ABNB跌至140美元低点概率达100%

100% +50.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability for Airbnb (ABNB) to hit a low of $140 by May 4, 2026, surged to 100% following a Forbes report projecting money market rates hitting 4.22% by that date. This indicates a sustained high-interest-rate environment, negatively impacting growth stocks. 预测Airbnb (ABNB)在2026年5月4日前触及140美元低点的概率飙升至100%，主要受《福布斯》预测届时货币市场利率将达4.22%的报道驱动。这预示着高利率环境将持续，对成长型股票构成负面影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes projects 4.22% money market rates by May 4, 2026.
  • Sustained high interest rates depress growth stock valuations.
  • High rates reduce consumer discretionary travel spending.
  • 福布斯预测2026年利率达4.22%。
  • 持续高利率环境压低成长股估值。
  • 高利率减少消费者非必需旅游支出。
This shift reflects growing market conviction that a challenging macroeconomic environment will significantly pressure ABNB's valuation over the next two years. 这一变化反映市场日益确信，未来两年充满挑战的宏观经济环境将显著压低ABNB的估值。
Vol 24h: $935 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained high interest rates into 2026 will suppress consumer discretionary spending and growth stock valuations. 2026年持续高利率将抑制消费者非必需支出并压低成长股估值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Interest rates could decline sooner than expected, boosting growth stocks and consumer travel demand. 利率可能提前下降，或ABNB强劲需求使其股价保持在140美元以上。
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500
#5 · Score 398

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of May 4 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +39.5%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,122 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 338

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of May 4 2026? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +33.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,897 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 338

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $5.25 Week of May 4 2 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $5.25 Week of May 4 2

100% +33.5%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $5.25 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,589 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 293

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of May 4 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +28.9%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 278

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $385 Week of May 4 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $385 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +27.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $385 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,903 Polymarket ↗
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500
#10 · Score 278

TSLA Price Cut Fears Confirmed 特斯拉降价担忧成真

100% +27.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting a $390 low by May 4, 2026, surged to 100% following confirmation of aggressive price cuts for the Model 3 in Canada. This move is driven by persistent concerns over Tesla's growth and a potential pivot from its core car business. 特斯拉股价在2026年5月4日前触及390美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前证实Model 3在加拿大大幅降价。此举主要受特斯拉增长前景持续担忧及其核心汽车业务可能转型的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tesla undercuts EV prices in Canada with Model 3
  • Musk's pessimism on growth leads to analyst downgrades
  • Pivot to robotics potentially impacting car business
  • 特斯拉Model 3在加拿大大幅降价
  • 马斯克对增长悲观，分析师下调评级
  • 转向机器人业务或影响汽车主业
This indicates significant long-term bearish sentiment for Tesla's core automotive profitability and market share, despite any short-term stock fluctuations. 这表明市场对特斯拉核心汽车业务的长期盈利能力和市场份额存在显著看跌情绪，尽管短期股价可能波动。
Vol 24h: $1,820 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger-than-expected demand for new models or successful diversification into AI/robotics could prevent the stock from hitting $390. 新车型销量超预期或AI/机器人业务成功多元化，可能阻止股价跌破390美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued aggressive price cuts and declining automotive margins will drive TSLA stock below $390 by May 2026. 持续激进的降价和汽车利润率下降将推动特斯拉股价在2026年5月前跌破390美元。
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500
#11 · Score 273

MSFT Low Target Probability Soars 微软触及低点概率飙升

100% +27.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $412.50 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability of Microsoft (MSFT) hitting a low of $412.50 by May 2026 jumped to 100%, indicating strong market conviction in a future price correction. This movement suggests concerns that current record market rallies and strong earnings may lead to overvaluation, increasing the likelihood of a significant dip for major tech stocks like MSFT. 微软(MSFT)在2026年5月触及412.50美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，表明市场强烈预期未来股价将出现修正。此举暗示了对当前市场创纪录上涨和强劲财报可能导致估值过高的担忧，增加了微软等主要科技股大幅下跌的可能性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Broad market overvaluation concerns after S&P 500 and Nasdaq record rallies.
  • Potential future market correction impacting major tech stocks, as implied by 'market's next test' headline.
  • War-driven spike in oil prices potentially signaling future inflation and economic slowdown.
  • 标普500和纳斯达克创纪录上涨后，市场普遍担忧估值过高。
  • “市场下一次考验”暗示主要科技股面临潜在未来市场修正风险。
  • 战争驱动的油价飙升可能预示未来通胀和经济放缓。
This reflects a significant bearish outlook for MSFT's long-term price trajectory, suggesting investors anticipate a substantial correction despite current positive market sentiment. 这反映了市场对微软长期股价走势的显著看跌预期，表明投资者预计尽管当前市场情绪积极，但仍将出现大幅修正。
Vol 24h: $1,899 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A significant economic downturn or specific MSFT challenges will ensure its price falls to $412.50. 持续的经济衰退或微软面临的特定挑战将确保其股价跌至412.50美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Microsoft's robust AI growth and strong earnings will sustain its valuation far above $412.50. 微软强劲的AI增长和稳健的财报将使其股价远高于412.50美元。
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500
#12 · Score 273

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $610 Week of May 4 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $610 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +27.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $610 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,065 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 264

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

32% -26.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $7,479 Polymarket ↗
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500
#14 · Score 245

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?

74% +24.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $90,211 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 219

AAPL $288 May Target Doubt 苹果五月288美元目标存疑

48% -21.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?

The probability of Apple (AAPL) hitting $288 in May dropped 21.5% to 48%, reflecting reduced confidence despite a positive Q2 earnings report. This suggests the post-earnings stock "pop" and raised analyst targets were insufficient to convince the market of a sustained rally to $288. 苹果(AAPL)五月触及288美元的概率下降21.5%至48%，表明尽管Q2财报积极，市场信心仍减弱。这暗示财报后的股价上涨及分析师上调目标未能充分支撑股价持续涨至288美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AAPL's post-Q2 rally lacked momentum towards $288.
  • Analyst price targets, though raised, may still fall short of $288.
  • Initial earnings-driven optimism for $288 proved overextended.
  • 苹果Q2后股价上涨势头不足以触及288美元。
  • 分析师上调目标价，但可能仍低于288美元共识。
  • 财报初期对288美元的乐观预期被修正。
This movement reflects the market's re-evaluation of Apple's near-term growth potential and investor sentiment following key financial disclosures. It highlights the challenge of sustaining high growth expectations even after positive news. 此次波动反映市场对苹果近期增长潜力和投资者情绪的重新评估。它凸显了即使在利好消息后，维持高增长预期的挑战。
Vol 24h: $5,075 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q2 earnings beat and raised analyst price targets provide a solid foundation for continued upward momentum. 强劲的Q2财报和分析师上调目标价为股价持续上涨奠定基础。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite positive earnings, the stock's rally has stalled, indicating resistance or profit-taking below the $288 target. 尽管财报积极，股价上涨停滞，288美元以下存阻力或获利了结。
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500
#16 · Score 208

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

58% -20.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,040 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 204

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie

80% +20.0%

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,578 Polymarket ↗
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500
#18 · Score 188

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League

20% -18.5%

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 185

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

80% +18.0%

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $154,319 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 179

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

22% -17.5%

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,335 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 175

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

20% -17.0%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $171,489 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 164

DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1? DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?

57% -16.0%

DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,914 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 144

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

32% +14.0%

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $24,736 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 144

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 4 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +14.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 4 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,192 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 139

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?

38% -13.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $7,489 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 133

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May? Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May?

60% +13.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $990 Polymarket ↗
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500
#27 · Score 129

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

31% +12.5%

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,740 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 129

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May?

38% -12.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,039 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 120

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?

23% -11.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $48,062 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 116

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

78% +11.0%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $355,808 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 18

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026

82% -1.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,192 Polymarket ↗
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。