AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 01, 2026 11:04 UTC
#1 · Score 954

Qatar LNG Production Confirmed by April 30 卡塔尔液化天然气4月30日前恢复生产

97% +95.0%

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

The probability of QatarEnergy announcing/resuming LNG production by April 30 surged to 97% from a low base, indicating strong market confidence. This dramatic shift likely follows an official reassurance or resolution of issues previously highlighted by headlines like "war chokes Qatari supply." 卡塔尔能源公司在4月30日前宣布/恢复液化天然气生产的可能性飙升至97%，表明市场信心强劲。这一显著变化很可能源于卡塔尔能源或政府的官方保证，解决了此前“战争扼杀卡塔尔供应”等报道引发的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • QatarEnergy's official confirmation of production resumption by April 30.
  • Successful mitigation of regional security threats affecting shipping routes.
  • Strong government commitment to ensure export operations by deadline.
  • 卡塔尔能源公司官方确认4月30日前恢复生产。
  • 成功化解影响液化天然气航运路线的地区安全威胁。
  • 政府坚定承诺确保在截止日期前完成出口运营。
Qatar is a major global LNG supplier, and its stable production is crucial for global energy security, especially for Europe and Asia. Continued supply helps stabilize international LNG prices and meet demand. 卡塔尔是全球主要的液化天然气供应国，其稳定生产对全球能源安全至关重要，尤其对欧洲和亚洲。持续供应有助于稳定国际液化天然气价格并满足需求。
Vol 24h: $65,441 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 QatarEnergy will issue a definitive statement confirming uninterrupted production or a swift resumption plan by April 30, overcoming regional challenges. 卡塔尔能源公司将发布明确声明，确认在4月30日前不间断生产或迅速恢复计划，克服地区挑战。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen escalation of regional conflicts or new operational issues could prevent QatarEnergy from meeting the April 30 deadline. 地区冲突意外升级或新的运营问题可能导致卡塔尔能源公司无法在4月30日前达标。
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500
#2 · Score 668

NVIDIA Plunges Amid Tech Sell-Off, Geopolitical Fears 英伟达暴跌：科技回调与地缘政治

18% -66.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 27 above $205?

NVIDIA's probability of finishing the week above $205 plummeted to 18% following a broad tech sector pullback and surging oil prices. Major indexes, including the Nasdaq, pulled back from record highs as tech stocks fell and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran escalated. 英伟达本周收盘价高于205美元的概率暴跌至18%，主要受科技股普遍回调和油价飙升影响。纳斯达克指数从历史高点回落，科技股下跌，且伊朗地缘政治紧张局势升级。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tech Stocks Fall and Nasdaq Pull Back From Records (Investopedia)
  • Oil Surges Further as US Mulls Iran Offer (Investopedia)
  • Trump Says to Prepare for Extended Iran Blockade (Investopedia)
  • 科技股下跌，纳斯达克指数从高点回落
  • 油价因美国考虑伊朗提议而飙升
  • 特朗普称准备延长伊朗封锁
This significant drop highlights the vulnerability of even leading tech stocks like NVIDIA to broader market corrections and geopolitical instability. It signals investor caution regarding growth valuations amidst rising economic uncertainties. 这次大幅下跌凸显了英伟达等领先科技股在市场修正和地缘政治不稳定面前的脆弱性。它预示着投资者对增长型股票估值在经济不确定性上升时的谨慎态度。
Vol 24h: $2,426 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong call buying suggests some traders expect a quick rebound in NVIDIA's stock, potentially driven by renewed AI optimism. 强劲的看涨期权买入表明交易员预期英伟达股价将迅速反弹，可能受AI乐观情绪推动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued tech sector weakness and escalating geopolitical tensions could keep NVIDIA's price suppressed below $205. 科技板块持续疲软和地缘政治紧张升级可能使英伟达股价维持在205美元以下。
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500
#3 · Score 540

Market Resilience Slashes Crash Odds 市场韧性削减崩盘概率

3% -53.6%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of April 27 2026?

The probability of SPY hitting a low of $705 by April 27, 2026, has sharply declined by 53.6% to 3%, driven by strong market performance. The S&P 500 recently hit a record high, and major indexes concluded a robust month with significant gains. 标普500指数（SPY）在2026年4月27日当周触及705美元低点的可能性已大幅下降53.6%至3%，主要受强劲市场表现驱动。标普500指数近期创下历史新高，主要股指也以强劲涨势结束了本月交易。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 hit a record high in April.
  • Dow Jones gained 700 points, ending a strong month.
  • Positive corporate earnings reports (e.g., Caterpillar).
  • 标普500指数在四月创历史新高。
  • 道琼斯指数上涨700点，月度表现强劲。
  • 企业财报积极（如卡特彼勒大涨）。
This movement reflects increased investor confidence in sustained market growth and reduced fears of a severe downturn, impacting long-term investment strategies. 这一变化反映了投资者对市场持续增长的信心增强，并减少了对严重经济衰退的担忧，影响长期投资策略。
Vol 24h: $5,507 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong corporate earnings and economic growth will push SPY significantly higher, making a $705 low impossible. 企业盈利持续强劲和经济增长将显著推高SPY，使得705美元的低点不可能出现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen geopolitical escalations or a severe economic recession could still trigger a sharp market correction to $705. 无法预料的地缘政治升级或严重经济衰退仍可能引发市场急剧回调至705美元。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Down Confirmed by May 1 比特币5月1日确认下跌

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4AM ET

The prediction market for Bitcoin's direction by May 1, 4AM ET has reached 100% probability for a downturn, up 50% in 24 hours. This strong shift is primarily driven by significant selling pressure and broader risk-off sentiment. 比特币在5月1日凌晨4点前下跌的预测市场概率已达100%，24小时内上涨50%。这一强劲转变主要受显著抛售压力和避险情绪驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Riot Platforms sold 500 BTC, increasing supply.
  • $82K sell wall caps Bitcoin's upside potential.
  • UAE’s OPEC exit triggers broader risk sell-off.
  • US mining company transferred 500 BTC, signaling potential sales.
  • Riot Platforms出售500枚比特币，增加市场供应。
  • 8.2万美元抛售墙限制比特币上涨空间。
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险资产抛售。
  • 美国矿企转移500枚比特币，预示潜在抛售。
This indicates a strong consensus among market participants for a short-term bearish trend, potentially impacting broader crypto market sentiment and investor confidence. 这表明市场参与者对短期看跌趋势形成强烈共识，可能影响更广泛的加密市场情绪和投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $62,110 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected institutional buying or a sudden positive macro shift could reverse the trend. 意外的机构买入或宏观经济突变可能逆转趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued miner selling and global risk aversion will push Bitcoin lower by May 1. 矿工持续抛售和全球避险情绪将推动比特币在5月1日前下跌。
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500
#5 · Score 483

AMZN Soars Post-Earnings, Target $265+ 亚马逊财报强劲，股价冲刺265美元

100% +48.0%

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on April 30?

The probability for AMZN closing above $265 on April 30 surged to 100% after its Q1 earnings report on April 29. Amazon reported a 'killer quarter' with revenue of $181.52 billion, beating analyst estimates of $177.3 billion. 亚马逊(AMZN)在4月29日发布第一季度财报后，其股价在4月30日收盘高于265美元的概率飙升至100%。公司公布了“杀手级”季度业绩，营收达1815.2亿美元，超出分析师预期的1773亿美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q1 revenue beat: $181.52B vs $177.3B
  • CNBC raised AMZN price target
  • AMZN stock gained 3% post-earnings
  • 一季度营收超预期：1815.2亿美元
  • CNBC上调亚马逊目标价
  • 财报后股价上涨3%
Strong earnings performance signals robust business health and investor confidence in Amazon's growth trajectory. This positive momentum could influence future stock performance and broader tech sector sentiment. 强劲的盈利表现预示着公司业务健康和投资者对亚马逊增长轨迹的信心。这种积极势头可能影响未来股价表现和更广泛的科技板块情绪。
Vol 24h: $1,278 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Exceptional Q1 earnings and analyst upgrades provide strong upward momentum, making the $265 target highly achievable. 卓越的一季度财报和分析师上调评级提供了强劲上涨动力，使265美元目标极易实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market declines or profit-taking after the initial rally could introduce volatility, potentially challenging the target. 大盘下跌或初步上涨后的获利回吐可能带来波动，潜在挑战目标价位。
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500
#6 · Score 478

Netflix Content Boosts Outlook 网飞内容提振前景

6% -47.4%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026?

The probability of Netflix hitting a $90 low decreased significantly due to strong content performance and positive broader market sentiment. Netflix's new series "Unchosen" debuted with 10.4 million views, signaling robust subscriber engagement. 网飞股价跌至90美元低点的可能性显著下降，主要得益于其强劲的内容表现和积极的整体市场情绪。网飞新剧《未选择》首周观看量达1040万，显示出强大的用户吸引力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netflix's "Unchosen" series success
  • Positive broader earnings season outlook
  • General stock market gains
  • 网飞新剧《未选择》表现出色
  • 整体财报季前景乐观
  • 股市大盘普遍上涨
Strong content performance is crucial for streaming services to retain subscribers and drive revenue, directly impacting investor confidence and stock valuation. 强大的内容表现对于流媒体服务留住用户和增加收入至关重要，直接影响投资者信心和股票估值。
Vol 24h: $2,033 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected subscriber slowdowns or a severe market downturn could still push NFLX to $90. 意外的用户增长放缓或市场严重回调仍可能将网飞股价推至90美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Netflix's successful new content and positive earnings season outlook make a $90 low highly improbable. 网飞成功的新内容和积极的财报季展望使得股价跌至90美元的可能性极低。
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500
#7 · Score 469

GOOGL Hits $365 Target 谷歌股价有望达$365

100% +46.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of April 27 2026?

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) probability surged to 100% for hitting $365 by April 27, 2026, following its exceptionally strong Q1 2026 earnings report. Google's significant AI investments and robust cloud segment growth were key drivers, pushing the stock to new highs. 谷歌（GOOGL）股价在2026年4月27日前达到365美元的概率飙升至100%，主要得益于其2026年第一季度财报表现异常强劲。谷歌在人工智能领域的重大投入和云业务的持续增长是推动股价创新高的关键因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Alphabet's Q1 2026 profit surge
  • Successful Google AI bets
  • Continued cloud segment growth
  • Alphabet 2026年Q1利润飙升
  • 谷歌AI投资取得成功
  • 云服务业务持续增长
This indicates strong investor confidence in Alphabet's strategic direction and its ability to monetize AI, potentially setting a benchmark for tech giants. 这表明投资者对Alphabet的战略方向及其将AI商业化的能力充满信心，可能为其他科技巨头树立标杆。
Vol 24h: $15,353 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Exceptional Q1 2026 earnings driven by AI and cloud growth confirm a strong upward trajectory, making the $365 target highly achievable. 2026年Q1财报显示AI和云业务强劲增长，证实股价上涨势头，使365美元目标极有可能实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen regulatory challenges or a significant tech market correction could still prevent GOOGL from sustaining its current trajectory. 意外的监管障碍或科技市场大幅回调，仍可能阻碍GOOGL维持当前增长轨迹。
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500
#8 · Score 450

Bitcoin Upside Probability Plunges 比特币上涨概率暴跌

6% -44.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by May 1, 5AM ET, plummeted by 44.5% to 6% due to a risk sell-off triggered by UAE's OPEC exit and significant miner selling. A strong $82K sell wall also caps upside potential. 比特币在5月1日美国东部时间上午5点上涨的概率暴跌44.5%至6%，主要受阿联酋退出欧佩克引发的风险抛售以及矿工大量出售比特币影响。8.2万美元的强大抛压也限制了上涨空间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • UAE’s OPEC exit sparks risk sell-off
  • Riot Platforms sells 500 BTC
  • $82K sell wall caps upside
  • 阿联酋退出欧佩克引发风险抛售
  • Riot Platforms出售500枚比特币
  • 8.2万美元抛压限制上涨
This sharp decline reflects heightened market caution towards risk assets amid geopolitical shifts and sustained selling pressure from major entities. It signals a strong bearish outlook for Bitcoin in the short term. 此次大幅下跌反映了在地缘政治变化和主要实体持续抛售压力下，市场对风险资产的谨慎情绪加剧。这预示着比特币短期内强烈的看跌前景。
Vol 24h: $32,019 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected positive macro news or a short squeeze could trigger a rapid rebound, pushing the probability higher. 意外的宏观利好消息或空头挤压可能引发快速反弹，推高上涨概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued miner selling and global risk aversion will likely keep Bitcoin's price suppressed, maintaining low 'up' probability. 矿工持续抛售和全球避险情绪可能继续压制比特币价格，维持低上涨概率。
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500
#9 · Score 448

Rial Extreme Depreciation Unlikely by April 30 里亚尔极端贬值预期骤降

1% -44.4%

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?

The probability of USD reaching 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30 plummeted to 1%, driven by signs of a holding ceasefire and potential diplomatic overtures. Despite the rial hitting a record low, the market perceives reduced immediate geopolitical risk preventing extreme depreciation by the deadline. 美元兑伊朗里亚尔在4月30日前达到180万的概率降至1%，主要受停火协议维持和潜在外交谈判的迹象驱动。尽管里亚尔创下历史新低，市场认为短期内极端地缘政治风险降低，阻止了在截止日期前出现极度贬值。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Shaky ceasefire with US and Israel holds
  • Trump urges Iran to sign a deal
  • Imminent April 30 deadline limits extreme short-term movement
  • 美伊与以色列之间脆弱停火协议维持
  • 特朗普敦促伊朗签署协议的表态
  • 4月30日临近，极端波动时间有限
This market reflects the volatile interplay between geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and the stability of Iran's currency, impacting its citizens' purchasing power and regional stability. 该市场反映了地缘政治紧张、经济制裁与伊朗货币稳定之间的复杂互动，影响着民众购买力及地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $5,488 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating US-Iran tensions or a full-blown regional conflict could trigger hyperinflation, pushing USD to 1.8M rials. 美伊紧张局势升级或全面地区冲突可能引发恶性通货膨胀，推动美元兑里亚尔达到180万。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued ceasefire and diplomatic efforts, alongside the tight deadline, make extreme depreciation to 1.8M rials by April 30 highly improbable. 停火持续和外交努力，加上紧迫的截止日期，使得里亚尔在4月30日前贬值至180万的可能性极低。
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500
#10 · Score 435

Apple's Earnings Soar, $276 Target Likely 苹果财报超预期，目标276

97% +43.1%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of April 27 2026?

The probability of Apple hitting $276 by April 27, 2026, surged due to its exceptional Q2 2026 earnings report. Revenue increased 17% to $111.2 billion, significantly exceeding the $109.7 billion expected. 苹果股价在2026年4月27日前达到276美元的概率大幅上升，主要得益于其2026财年第二季度财报表现出色。营收增长17%至1112亿美元，远超预期的1097亿美元，显示出强劲业绩。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple's Q2 2026 revenue beat expectations.
  • Strong iPhone 17 series performance.
  • Increased Mac sales driven by AI demand.
  • Anticipated CEO change and AI update.
  • 苹果2026年Q2营收超预期。
  • iPhone 17系列表现强劲。
  • AI需求推动Mac销量增长。
  • 即将到来的CEO更迭与AI更新。
This strong financial performance and strategic outlook reinforce Apple's market leadership and its ability to capitalize on emerging tech trends like AI, impacting broader tech sector valuations. 苹果强劲的财务表现和战略前景巩固了其市场领导地位，并展示了其利用AI等新兴技术趋势的能力，影响着更广泛的科技行业估值。
Vol 24h: $9,150 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Exceptional Q2 2026 earnings, strong iPhone 17 sales, and AI-driven Mac demand confirm Apple's robust growth trajectory towards $276. 卓越的Q2财报、强劲的iPhone 17销量和AI驱动的Mac需求，证实苹果正稳健迈向276美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market pullbacks or unexpected geopolitical events could still temper Apple's stock momentum despite strong fundamentals. 尽管基本面强劲，但大盘回调或突发地缘政治事件仍可能抑制苹果股价上涨势头。
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500
#11 · Score 412

Google Surges Post-Q1 Earnings 谷歌Q1财报后股价飙升

98% +40.8%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 27 above $350?

GOOGL's probability of finishing above $350 surged to 98% due to its robust Q1 earnings report. The company reported strong financial growth, a quarterly beat, and booming Cloud revenue. GOOGL收盘价高于350美元的概率飙升至98%，主要受其强劲的第一季度财报驱动。公司公布了强劲的财务增长、超出预期的季度业绩以及蓬勃发展的云收入。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Alphabet's strong Q1 earnings beat expectations.
  • Booming Cloud revenue and increased backlog reported.
  • Reached 350 million paid subscribers in Q1.
  • Alphabet第一季度财报表现强劲，超出预期。
  • 云收入和积压订单大幅增长。
  • 第一季度付费订阅用户达3.5亿。
Strong earnings performance from a tech giant like Alphabet often signals broader economic health and investor confidence in the technology sector. 像Alphabet这样的科技巨头强劲的财报表现，通常预示着更广泛的经济健康状况和投资者对科技行业的信心。
Vol 24h: $2,108 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Alphabet's strong Q1 earnings, driven by Cloud revenue and subscriber growth, provide solid fundamental support for the stock price above $350. Alphabet强劲的第一季度财报，由云收入和订阅用户增长驱动，为股价维持在350美元以上提供了坚实的基本面支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A broader tech sector pullback or unexpected negative market sentiment could still cause GOOGL to dip below the $350 threshold. 整体科技板块回调或突发负面市场情绪，仍可能导致GOOGL跌破350美元关口。
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500
#12 · Score 412

MegaETH FDV Target Dips MegaETH FDV目标下降

1% -40.8%

MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?

The probability of MegaETH's FDV exceeding $2B post-launch dropped to 1% from ~1.69%, indicating reduced investor confidence in new, high-valuation projects despite positive broader market signals like BlackRock's $500M ETH stake. MegaETH上市后FDV超过20亿美元的概率从约1.69%降至1%，表明尽管有贝莱德5亿美元ETH持仓等积极市场信号，投资者对高估值新项目的信心有所下降。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Lack of specific positive MegaETH news
  • Capital shift towards established assets like ETH
  • General market caution, e.g., Riot Platforms selling BTC
  • 缺乏MegaETH具体利好消息
  • 资金转向以太坊等成熟资产
  • 市场普遍谨慎，如Riot出售比特币
This reflects a discerning crypto market, where even positive ecosystem news doesn't automatically translate to high valuations for new, unproven projects. It highlights investor preference for established assets over speculative launches. 这反映了加密市场日益谨慎，即使积极的生态系统新闻也无法自动转化为未经证实的新项目的高估值。它突显了投资者对成熟资产而非投机性新项目的偏好。
Vol 24h: $14,268 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 MegaETH launches with groundbreaking features attracting massive investor interest and liquidity. MegaETH以突破性功能发布，吸引大量投资者兴趣和流动性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 MegaETH fails to attract sufficient launch day liquidity or investor interest amidst market saturation. MegaETH在市场饱和中未能吸引足够流动性或投资者兴趣。
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500
#13 · Score 397

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

37% -39.2%

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $42,859 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 389

MegaETH $2B FDV Hopes Vanish MegaETH $20亿市值希望破灭

0% -38.4%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

The probability of MegaETH reaching a $2B FDV one day after launch plummeted to 0% from 38.4%. This sharp decline is primarily driven by a complete lack of specific positive news or launch details for MegaETH amidst a mixed general crypto news cycle. MegaETH上市一天后达到20亿美元FDV的概率从38.4%骤降至0%。这一急剧下降主要由于在加密市场消息喜忧参半之际，MegaETH缺乏具体的利好消息或发布细节。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No MegaETH launch details or positive news
  • Riot Platforms' Bitcoin sales signal caution
  • Focus shifts to established assets like staked ETH
  • MegaETH缺乏发布细节或利好消息
  • Riot出售比特币预示市场谨慎
  • 市场关注转向以太坊等成熟资产
This indicates significant market skepticism for new, unproven projects, especially those aiming for high valuations without clear fundamentals or launch traction. It highlights the challenge for new tokens to gain investor confidence. 这表明市场对缺乏明确基本面或发布进展的新项目持高度怀疑态度，尤其是在追求高估值时。凸显了新代币获取投资者信任的挑战。
Vol 24h: $984,744 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected strong launch partnerships or highly favorable tokenomics for MegaETH could suddenly emerge. MegaETH若突然宣布重磅合作或极度有利的代币经济模型，概率可能回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued absence of launch clarity or unfavorable tokenomics will solidify low valuation expectations. 持续缺乏发布清晰度或不利的代币经济模型将巩固其低估值预期。
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500
#15 · Score 385

Bitcoin Up Probability Soars 比特币上涨概率飙升

88% +38.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?

Bitcoin's "Up" probability for May 1 surged to 88% (+38.0%), driven by significant institutional activity and perceived upside potential. A US-based mining company's 500 BTC transfer signals strong underlying demand, overshadowing geopolitical concerns. 比特币5月1日上涨的概率飙升至88%（+38.0%），主要受机构大额交易和潜在上涨空间驱动。一家美国矿企转移500枚比特币，显示出强劲的市场需求，盖过了地缘政治担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US mining company transfers 500 BTC
  • Market targets $82K despite sell wall
  • Geopolitical risk sell-off discounted
  • 美国矿企转移500枚比特币
  • 市场看涨至8.2万美元抛售墙
  • 地缘政治风险抛售被市场忽视
This strong bullish shift indicates high market confidence in Bitcoin's short-term price appreciation, potentially signaling broader institutional adoption and resilience to external shocks. 这一强劲的看涨转变表明市场对短期比特币价格上涨充满信心，可能预示着更广泛的机构采用和对外部冲击的韧性。
Vol 24h: $73,704 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Institutional transfers of 500 BTC signal strong accumulation and confidence, pushing prices higher towards the $82K target. 机构转移500枚比特币预示强劲积累和信心，推动价格向8.2万美元目标上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $82K sell wall and ongoing risk sell-off from UAE's OPEC exit could cap upside or trigger a reversal. 8.2万美元抛售墙及地缘政治风险抛售可能限制涨幅或导致价格逆转。
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500
#16 · Score 309

ETH $2,300 Target Fails 以太坊$2300目标落空

0% -30.4%

Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 30?

Ethereum's probability of reaching $2,300 by April 30 plummeted to 0% due to the approaching deadline and insufficient price momentum. Despite BlackRock's $500M ETH staking, the market lost confidence in a rapid surge. 以太坊在4月30日前达到2300美元的概率暴跌至0%，主要原因是截止日期临近且价格上涨动力不足。尽管贝莱德质押了5亿美元以太坊，市场仍对快速上涨失去信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • April 30 deadline too close for ETH to reach $2,300.
  • BlackRock's $500M ETH staking failed to drive price significantly.
  • Riot Platforms' Bitcoin sale signals broader crypto market weakness.
  • 4月30日截止日期临近，ETH难达目标。
  • 贝莱德5亿美元质押未能显著推高ETH。
  • Riot出售比特币，加密市场显疲软。
This reflects a strong bearish outlook for Ethereum's short-term price action, indicating a lack of catalysts to overcome current resistance levels. It suggests traders are adjusting expectations for immediate gains. 这反映了市场对以太坊短期价格走势的强烈看跌情绪，表明缺乏突破当前阻力位的催化剂。这促使交易者调整对即时收益的预期。
Vol 24h: $37,386 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong institutional inflows or unexpected positive news could still trigger a rapid, late-stage rally. 强大的机构资金流入或意外利好消息仍可能引发快速、末期反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ethereum's current price is too far below $2,300, with insufficient time for a significant breakout. 以太坊当前价格远低于2300美元，时间不足以实现显著突破。
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500
#17 · Score 308

AMZN Soars Post-Earnings Beat 亚马逊财报超预期股价飙升

95% +30.6%

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 27 above $255?

Amazon's probability to finish above $255 surged to 95% following its Q1 earnings report released during the week of April 27. The company significantly beat analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share. 亚马逊在4月27日当周发布第一季度财报后，其股价收盘高于255美元的概率飙升至95%。公司营收和每股收益均大幅超出分析师预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q1 revenue beat analyst estimates by $4.22 billion
  • AWS cloud sales exceeded Wall Street expectations
  • Strong AI demand fueled AWS's fastest growth in 15 quarters
  • 第一季度营收超出分析师预期42.2亿美元
  • AWS云服务销售额超出华尔街预期
  • 强劲AI需求推动AWS实现15季度最快增速
This performance underscores Amazon's robust business health and its pivotal role in the booming artificial intelligence sector, influencing broader tech market sentiment. 这一业绩凸显了亚马逊强劲的业务健康状况及其在蓬勃发展的人工智能领域的关键作用，影响着更广泛的科技市场情绪。
Vol 24h: $696 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q1 earnings beat, especially in AWS driven by AI demand, provides significant upward momentum for AMZN stock. 强劲的第一季度财报，特别是AI需求驱动的AWS增长，为亚马逊股价提供了显著上涨动力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the earnings beat, any broader market downturn or profit-taking could limit AMZN's sustained rally above $255. 尽管财报超预期，但任何大盘回调或获利了结都可能限制亚马逊股价持续高于255美元。
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500
#18 · Score 275

Ethereum Surges on BlackRock Staking 以太坊因贝莱德质押飙升

77% +27.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 1?

The probability of Ethereum being up on May 1 surged to 77% (+27.0%), primarily driven by BlackRock's reported $500M Ethereum staking, which reduces market supply. This institutional move signals strong confidence in ETH's value. 以太坊在5月1日上涨的概率飙升至77%（+27.0%），主要受贝莱德据报质押5亿美元以太坊、减少市场供应的驱动。这一机构举动表明了对ETH价值的强烈信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BlackRock's $500M Ethereum staking removes supply.
  • Positive U.S. stock futures from strong corporate earnings.
  • 贝莱德质押5亿美元以太坊，减少市场供应。
  • 美国股指期货因强劲企业财报普遍上涨。
BlackRock's significant ETH staking signals institutional confidence and could impact Ethereum's long-term supply dynamics and price stability. 贝莱德大规模质押ETH表明机构对其信心，可能影响以太坊长期供应和价格稳定性。
Vol 24h: $39,045 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 BlackRock's $500M ETH staking significantly reduces available supply, creating upward price pressure for Ethereum. 贝莱德5亿美元ETH质押显著减少市场供应，对以太坊价格构成上涨压力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market 'Sell in May' sentiment or profit-taking could still lead to a price correction for Ethereum. 市场普遍的“五月卖出”情绪或获利了结可能导致以太坊价格回调。
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500
#19 · Score 269

Meta Stock Sinks on AI Spending Hike Meta股价因AI支出大增而下跌

100% +26.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $650 Week of April 27 2026?

The probability of Meta hitting a $650 low by April 2026 surged to 100% after its Q1 CY2026 earnings. This was driven by the company's announcement of a significantly raised 2026 AI spending forecast to $125 billion-$145 billion, causing the stock to sink despite exceeding revenue expectations. Meta股价在2026年第一季度财报后，因宣布将2026年AI支出预测提高至1250亿-1450亿美元而下跌，导致其在2026年4月前触及650美元低点的可能性飙升至100%。尽管营收超出预期，但高额AI投资引发市场担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta raises 2026 AI spending forecast to $125B-$145B.
  • META stock drops post-Q1 CY2026 earnings despite revenue beat.
  • Investor concerns over increased capital expenditure.
  • Meta上调2026年AI支出预测至1250亿-1450亿美元。
  • 尽管营收超预期，Meta股价在2026年Q1财报后下跌。
  • 投资者担忧资本支出增加将影响未来盈利。
Meta's aggressive AI investment strategy signals a costly race for technological dominance, potentially impacting shareholder returns and setting a precedent for tech giants' spending. Meta激进的AI投资策略预示着一场昂贵的技术竞争，可能影响股东回报，并为其他科技巨头的支出树立先例。
Vol 24h: $13,335 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued high AI spending and slow returns will further depress META's stock, solidifying the $650 low. 持续高额AI支出和缓慢回报将进一步压低Meta股价，使其跌至650美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong monetization of AI investments or significant cost reductions could prevent META from dropping to $650. AI投资强劲变现或大幅削减成本，可能阻止Meta股价跌破650美元。
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500
#20 · Score 253

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $412.50 Week of April 27 2 Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $412.50 Week of April 27 2

100% +24.9%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $412.50 Week of April 27 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,787 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 220

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

41% +21.5%

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $59,134 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 194

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem

54% -19.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

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Vol 24h: $26,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 188

Apple Earnings Boost Market Cap Outlook 苹果财报提振市值排名

90% +18.5%

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

The probability for Apple to be the third-largest company by market cap on May 31 surged to 90%. This was driven by Apple's strong Q2 earnings report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations with a 17% sales jump and record services revenue. 苹果在5月31日成为全球第三大市值公司的可能性飙升至90%。这主要受其强劲的第二季度财报推动，该财报销售额增长17%，服务收入创纪录，超出华尔街预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q2 earnings beat Wall Street estimates
  • iPhone sales drove 17% revenue jump
  • Services revenue hit record $31 billion
  • Q3 guidance topped analyst estimates
  • 第二季度财报超预期
  • iPhone销量推动营收增长17%
  • 服务收入达310亿美元新高
  • 第三季度业绩指引高于预期
This indicates Apple's continued dominance in consumer tech and its ability to drive growth despite economic headwinds. It also highlights the importance of its ecosystem and recurring service revenue. 这表明苹果在消费科技领域的持续主导地位及其在经济逆风下推动增长的能力。它也突显了其生态系统和经常性服务收入的重要性。
Vol 24h: $2,646 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong iPhone demand and robust services growth will continue to drive Apple's market cap, solidifying its top-three position. 强劲的iPhone需求和稳健的服务增长将继续推动苹果市值，巩固其前三地位。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense competition or unexpected macroeconomic shifts could impact future sales, potentially lowering Apple's market cap ranking. 激烈的市场竞争或宏观经济意外可能影响未来销售，从而降低苹果市值排名。
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500
#24 · Score 188

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?

18% -18.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?

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Vol 24h: $865 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 184

Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 1? Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 1?

8% -18.0%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 1?

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Vol 24h: $16,700 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 179

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $129 Week of April 27 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $129 Week of April 27

3% -17.6%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $129 Week of April 27 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,324 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 172

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3

77% -16.8%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

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Vol 24h: $70,625 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 149

AMZN Soars on Killer Q1 Earnings 亚马逊Q1业绩强劲股价飙升

100% +14.4%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of April 27 2026?

Amazon's probability to hit $268 by April 2026 surged to 100% following its Q1 earnings beat. Revenue of $181.52 billion surpassed analyst estimates, driving immediate stock gains and price target increases. 亚马逊（AMZN）在公布强劲的第一季度财报后，其在2026年4月前达到268美元的概率飙升至100%。1815.2亿美元的营收超出分析师预期，推动股价立即上涨并上调目标价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Amazon's Q1 revenue beat consensus by $4.22 billion.
  • CNBC reported analysts raising AMZN price targets.
  • AMZN stock gained 3% post-Q1 earnings.
  • 亚马逊Q1营收超出市场预期42.2亿美元。
  • CNBC报道分析师上调亚马逊目标价。
  • 亚马逊Q1财报后股价上涨3%。
Strong tech earnings can signal broader economic health and investor confidence, potentially influencing the trajectory of the entire stock market. 科技巨头的强劲业绩预示着更广泛的经济健康和投资者信心，可能影响整个股市走向。
Vol 24h: $15,493 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Exceptional Q1 revenue growth and analyst upgrades solidify confidence in AMZN's long-term valuation and growth trajectory. 卓越的Q1营收增长和分析师上调目标价，增强了对亚马逊长期估值和增长轨迹的信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market pullbacks or unforeseen geopolitical events could still impact AMZN's upward momentum. 更广泛的市场回调或不可预见的全球事件仍可能影响亚马逊的上涨势头。
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500
#29 · Score 148

NVDA Target Collapses Amid Tech Sell-Off 英伟达目标价暴跌，科技股普跌

0% -14.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of April 27 2026?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting $224 by April 27, 2026, plummeted to 0% following a broad tech stock pullback on a busy earnings day. This decline was exacerbated by rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran. 英伟达在2026年4月27日前触及224美元的概率跌至0%，主要原因是繁忙财报季科技股普遍回调。油价飙升和伊朗地缘政治不确定性加剧了这一跌势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tech stocks fall on busy earnings day
  • Nasdaq pulls back from record highs
  • Oil surges amid Iran geopolitical tensions
  • 财报季科技股普遍下跌
  • 纳斯达克指数从高位回落
  • 伊朗地缘政治紧张推高油价
This movement reflects significant investor concern over short-term tech valuations and broader economic stability, impacting a key AI leader like Nvidia. 此举反映出投资者对短期科技股估值和宏观经济稳定性的担忧，影响了英伟达这样的AI领军企业。
Vol 24h: $5,260 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Nvidia's AI dominance and strong long-term demand could quickly reverse the recent tech sector downturn. 英伟达在AI领域的领导地位和强劲的长期需求有望迅速扭转近期科技股颓势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent tech weakness, disappointing sector earnings, and geopolitical risks will prevent NVDA from reaching $224. 持续的科技股疲软、令人失望的行业财报及地缘政治风险将阻止英伟达达到224美元。
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500
#30 · Score 140

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

33% -13.6%

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $44,320 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 114

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?

64% +11.0%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,129 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。