AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Apr 20, 2026 12:06 UTC
#1 · Score 991

Patek Index Surges Amid Economic Uncertainty 百达翡丽指数因经济不确定性上涨

100% +98.7%

Will the Patek Index hit $103,000 (LOW) by April 30?


The Patek Index probability surged to 100% as gold prices rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. Key events include Iran's declaration on the Strait of Hormuz and upcoming US economic data. 由于地缘政治紧张局势,百达翡丽指数概率飙升至100%。关键事件包括伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的声明和即将发布的美国经济数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Gold prices surged 1.0% on Hormuz news
  • Geopolitical tensions affecting market stability
  • Upcoming US economic data may influence investor sentiment
  • 霍尔木兹新闻推动黄金价格上涨1.0%
  • 地缘政治紧张局势影响市场稳定
  • 即将发布的美国经济数据可能影响投资者情绪
The Patek Index's movement reflects broader economic uncertainties, impacting investor confidence and asset valuations. 百达翡丽指数的变化反映了更广泛的经济不确定性,影响投资者信心和资产估值。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If gold prices continue to rise, it could drive the Patek Index higher as investors seek safe havens. 如果黄金价格继续上涨,可能推动百达翡丽指数上升,投资者寻求避险。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A disappointing US economic report could lead to a sell-off, decreasing the probability of the Patek Index hitting $103,000. 美国经济数据不佳可能导致抛售,降低百达翡丽指数达到$103,000的概率。

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500
#2 · Score 548

Rolex Index Surges to $12,050 Certainty 劳力士指数确定触及12050美元

100% +54.4%

Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?


The probability for the Rolex Index to hit $12,050 by April 30 surged to 100% from 45.6%, driven by record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This indicates strong market optimism for luxury assets, aligning with broader economic strength. 劳力士指数在4月30日前触及12050美元的概率从45.6%飙升至100%,主要受标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高推动。这表明市场对奢侈品资产持强烈乐观态度,与整体经济走强一致。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs.
  • CNBC reported market 'likely hit a bottom'.
  • General bullish sentiment in financial news.
  • 标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高。
  • CNBC报道市场“可能已触底”。
  • 金融新闻普遍呈现看涨情绪。
The Rolex Index reflects luxury consumer spending and wealth effects, making its performance a key indicator of high-end market confidence and broader economic health. 劳力士指数反映了高端消费支出和财富效应,其表现是衡量奢侈品市场信心和整体经济健康的关键指标。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong equity markets and optimistic sentiment suggest continued upward momentum for luxury assets like Rolex. 强劲的股市和乐观情绪预示劳力士等奢侈品资产将持续上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen geopolitical events or a sudden market correction could still prevent the index from maintaining its trajectory. 突发地缘政治事件或市场突然回调,仍可能阻止指数维持当前走势。

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500
#3 · Score 509

Bitcoin Faces Sharp Decline 比特币急剧下跌

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4AM ET


Bitcoin's probability dropped to 0% as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. Renewed U.S.-Iran conflict fears have led to significant sell-offs in cryptocurrencies. 由于霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势,比特币概率降至0%。美国与伊朗冲突的担忧导致加密货币大幅抛售。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S.-Iran war risks impacting market confidence
  • Bitcoin's price drop to $74,335 amid geopolitical tensions
  • Oil prices rising, indicating inflation concerns
  • 美国与伊朗战争风险影响市场信心
  • 比特币因地缘政治紧张下跌至$74,335
  • 油价上涨,表明通胀担忧
Geopolitical tensions can lead to increased volatility in cryptocurrency markets, affecting investor behavior and asset prices. 地缘政治紧张局势可能导致加密货币市场波动加剧,影响投资者行为和资产价格。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could restore confidence, driving Bitcoin prices higher. 美国与伊朗紧张局势缓解可能恢复信心,推动比特币价格上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability may lead to further sell-offs in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 持续的地缘政治不稳定可能导致比特币和其他加密货币进一步抛售。

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500
#4 · Score 499

Bitcoin Slides Amid Geopolitical Fears 比特币因地缘政治担忧下跌

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5AM ET


Bitcoin's probability of being down by April 20, 5AM ET, reached 100% with a 49.5% surge in conviction, driven by renewed U.S.-Iran war risks. This geopolitical instability caused a broad crypto slide and increased oil prices. 比特币在4月20日美国东部时间凌晨5点前下跌的概率达到100%,信念飙升49.5%,主要受美国与伊朗战争风险重燃驱动。地缘政治不稳定导致加密货币普遍下滑和油价上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Renewed U.S.-Iran war risks
  • Bitcoin, ether, solana sliding
  • Oil price jumps on tensions
  • 美国与伊朗战争风险重燃
  • 比特币、以太坊等加密货币下滑
  • 地缘政治紧张推高油价
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are directly impacting global financial markets, driving investors away from risk assets like cryptocurrencies. 中东地缘政治紧张局势升级正直接影响全球金融市场,促使投资者规避比特币等风险资产。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could rebound if geopolitical tensions ease unexpectedly or if it's increasingly viewed as a digital safe haven. 若地缘政治紧张意外缓解或比特币被视为数字避险资产,其价格可能反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued U.S.-Iran conflict and broader risk aversion will likely sustain downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. 美国与伊朗冲突持续及避险情绪,将持续对比特币价格施压。

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500
#5 · Score 445

Market Volatility Amid Earnings Season 市场波动加剧

5% -44.1%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 20?


The current probability of the S&P 500 closing above $715 has dropped to 5%, driven by a significant 44.1% decline in the last 24 hours. This decline follows a rapid market rally fueled by easing Middle East tensions and optimism surrounding upcoming corporate earnings. 标准普尔500指数在24小时内概率降至5%,下降幅度达到44.1%。这一变化源于中东局势缓和和即将到来的企业财报季带来的市场不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Middle East tensions ease, boosting market confidence
  • Upcoming earnings season expected to drive stock prices
  • Recent record highs in S&P 500 and Nasdaq
  • 中东局势缓和,提升市场信心
  • 即将到来的财报季可能推动股价
  • 标准普尔500和纳斯达克创下新高
The fluctuation in probability reflects investor uncertainty as earnings reports may influence market direction significantly. A strong earnings season could stabilize or boost stock prices further. 概率的波动反映了投资者的不确定性,财报结果可能显著影响市场方向。强劲的财报季可能进一步稳定或提升股价。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If corporate earnings exceed expectations, the probability of closing above $715 could rise significantly. 如果企业财报超出预期,收盘高于715的概率可能大幅上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Disappointing earnings results could lead to a further decline in market confidence and lower the probability. 财报结果令人失望可能导致市场信心进一步下降,降低概率。

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500
#6 · Score 403

S&P 500 Rally Faces Uncertainty 标准普尔500指数反弹面临不确定性

10% -40.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of April 20 2026?


The S&P 500's probability of hitting $725 dropped to 10% after a 40% decline in 24 hours. Key drivers include easing Middle East tensions and record highs in major tech stocks. 标准普尔500指数达到725美元的概率降至10%,24小时内下降40%。关键驱动因素包括中东局势缓和和大型科技股创下新高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Middle East tensions ease, boosting investor confidence
  • Big Tech stocks surge, driving S&P 500 higher
  • Recent all-time highs raise market expectations
  • 中东局势缓和,提升投资者信心
  • 大型科技股上涨,推动标准普尔500指数
  • 近期创下历史新高,提升市场预期
The S&P 500's performance is crucial for economic indicators and investor sentiment, influencing broader market trends. 标准普尔500指数的表现对经济指标和投资者情绪至关重要,影响更广泛的市场趋势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued economic recovery and tech sector strength could push S&P 500 past $725. 经济持续复苏和科技行业强劲可能推动标准普尔500指数突破725美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical risks or economic downturns could prevent S&P 500 from reaching $725. 地缘政治风险或经济衰退可能阻止标准普尔500指数达到725美元。

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500
#7 · Score 379

Iran Strait Closure Tanks Ship Targeting Odds 伊朗封锁海峡,船舶袭击概率归零

0% -37.5%

Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?


The probability of Iran successfully targeting 2-3 ships by April 30 plummeted to 0% after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and traffic fell to single digits. This effectively removed potential targets, making the market outcome highly unlikely. 在伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡且船只通行量降至个位数后,伊朗在4月30日前成功袭击2-3艘船只的概率暴跌至0%。这实际上消除了潜在目标,使得市场结果极不可能发生。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to single digits.
  • US plans to seize Iran-linked ships worldwide.
  • 伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡船只通行量降至个位数。
  • 美国计划在全球扣押伊朗关联船只。
This impacts global oil supply, international shipping safety, and regional geopolitical stability. 这影响全球石油供应、国际航运安全及地区地缘政治稳定。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran unexpectedly reopens the Strait, and IRGC successfully targets vessels before the April 30 deadline. 伊朗意外重开海峡,伊斯兰革命卫队在4月30日前成功袭击船只。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, ensuring no commercial vessels are available for targeting by Iran. 霍尔木兹海峡保持关闭,伊朗无法在截止日期前找到商船目标。

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500
#8 · Score 225

Bitcoin Probability Dips on Geopolitical, ETF Fears 比特币概率骤降:地缘政治与ETF担忧

28% -22.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20?


The probability of Bitcoin being up on April 20 dropped 22% to 28%, primarily driven by escalating U.S.-Iran war risks and concerns over Coinbase Custody's significant holdings of Bitcoin ETF assets. Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have fueled market anxiety. 比特币在4月20日上涨的概率骤降22%至28%,主要受美国与伊朗之间升级的战争风险以及Coinbase Custody持有大量比特币ETF资产的“扼流点”担忧所驱动。霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势加剧了市场焦虑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Renewed U.S.-Iran war risks
  • Coinbase Custody 'choke point' warning
  • Strait of Hormuz disruption fears
  • 美伊战争风险升级
  • Coinbase托管“扼流点”警告
  • 霍尔木兹海峡中断担忧
Geopolitical instability and centralization risks for Bitcoin ETFs could significantly impact investor confidence and the broader crypto market's short-term trajectory. 地缘政治不稳定和比特币ETF的中心化风险可能严重影响投资者信心及加密货币市场的短期走势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation of Middle East tensions or strong ETF inflows could quickly reverse Bitcoin's recent slide. 中东局势缓和或ETF资金强劲流入,比特币价格可能迅速反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical conflict and persistent centralization fears could drive Bitcoin prices further down. 地缘冲突持续及中心化担忧不减,比特币价格恐进一步下跌。

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500
#9 · Score 203

NVDA Probability Plunges on AI Competition 英伟达AI竞争加剧,概率骤降

19% -20.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 20?


NVIDIA's 'Up' probability for April 20 plummeted 20% to 19%, primarily driven by news of Google and Marvell engaging in AI chip talks, intensifying market competition. This development signals a direct challenge to NVIDIA's dominant position in the lucrative AI hardware sector. 英伟达4月20日上涨概率骤降20%至19%,主要受谷歌和Marvell洽谈AI芯片业务,加剧市场竞争的消息驱动。这一进展预示着英伟达在利润丰厚的AI硬件领域面临直接挑战。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Google and Marvell in AI chip talks
  • Increased competition in AI chip market
  • NVIDIA's shifting focus from gaming market
  • 谷歌和Marvell洽谈AI芯片
  • AI芯片市场竞争加剧
  • 英伟达重心从游戏转向AI
This signals growing challenges to NVIDIA's dominant position in the lucrative AI chip market, potentially impacting its long-term growth trajectory and investor confidence. The market is reacting to potential erosion of its competitive moat. 这预示着英伟达在利润丰厚的AI芯片市场面临日益严峻的挑战,可能影响其长期增长轨迹和投资者信心。市场正在对潜在的竞争优势侵蚀做出反应。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVIDIA's established ecosystem and superior performance in AI chips could still outweigh new competition. 英伟达在AI芯片领域成熟的生态系统和卓越性能仍可能超越新竞争对手。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intensifying competition from tech giants like Google and Marvell threatens NVIDIA's market share and pricing power. 谷歌和Marvell等科技巨头日益激烈的竞争威胁英伟达的市场份额和定价权。

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500
#10 · Score 193

Google Stock Probability Drops Significantly 谷歌股票概率大幅下跌

24% -19.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 20?


Google's probability of rising on April 20 fell to 24%, down 19% in 24 hours. This decline follows negative market trends, including slipping Dow futures and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions. 谷歌在4月20日上涨的概率降至24%,24小时内下降19%。这一下降与市场整体负面趋势有关,包括道指期货下滑和因地缘政治紧张局势导致的油价上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Dow futures decline impacting tech stocks
  • Geopolitical tensions affecting market stability
  • Overall negative sentiment in global markets
  • 道指期货下跌影响科技股
  • 地缘政治紧张局势影响市场稳定
  • 全球市场整体负面情绪
These factors indicate a broader market weakness, which could affect investor confidence in tech stocks like Google. 这些因素表明市场整体疲软,可能影响投资者对谷歌等科技股的信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A positive earnings report or strong product announcement could boost Google's stock price. 积极的财报或强劲的产品发布可能提升谷歌股价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability and economic concerns may further depress Google's stock. 持续的地缘政治不稳定和经济担忧可能进一步压低谷歌股票。

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500
#11 · Score 189

Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Tensions 因伊朗紧张局势油价飙升

94% +18.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 20?


Oil prices have surged to a 94% probability of rising by April 20, driven by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Key events include Iran's accusations against the U.S. for breaking the ceasefire and restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. 油价在4月20日上涨的概率达到94%,主要受美伊紧张局势升级的推动。关键事件包括伊朗指责美国违反停火协议和限制霍尔木兹海峡的通行。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran restricts access to the Strait of Hormuz
  • U.S. fires on Iranian forces
  • Ceasefire expiration heightens tensions
  • 伊朗限制霍尔木兹海峡通行
  • 美国对伊朗军队开火
  • 停火协议即将到期加剧紧张
These developments could disrupt global oil supply, impacting prices and economic stability worldwide. 这些发展可能扰乱全球石油供应,影响价格和全球经济稳定。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If tensions escalate further, oil prices could rise significantly due to supply fears. 如果紧张局势进一步升级,因供应担忧油价可能大幅上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If Iran confirms the Strait of Hormuz is open, prices may drop as supply fears ease. 如果伊朗确认霍尔木兹海峡开放,价格可能因供应担忧减轻而下跌。

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500
#12 · Score 184

Iran Strike Risk Surges 伊朗袭击风险飙升

36% +18.0%

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?


The probability of Iran striking Bahrain by April 30, 2026, surged by 18% to 36%, driven by the increased influence of hardline IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and the breakdown of US-Iran diplomatic talks. 伊朗在2026年4月30日前袭击巴林的概率飙升18%至36%,主要受强硬派伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪影响力增强以及美伊外交谈判破裂驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IRGC Commander Vahidi's inner circle secured power.
  • Iran not delegating to talks with U.S.
  • President Trump threatens new strikes on Iran.
  • 革命卫队指挥官瓦希迪巩固权力。
  • 伊朗未派代表团与美谈判。
  • 特朗普总统威胁对伊朗发动新打击。
A strike on Bahrain would significantly destabilize the Persian Gulf, potentially drawing in major global powers and disrupting oil markets. 袭击巴林将严重破坏波斯湾稳定,可能卷入全球主要大国并扰乱石油市场。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Hardline IRGC commander Vahidi's increased influence and breakdown of US-Iran talks escalate regional tensions, increasing strike likelihood. 强硬派瓦希迪影响力增强及美伊谈判破裂,加剧地区紧张,提高袭击可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic breakthroughs or internal Iranian shifts could de-escalate tensions, reducing the probability of a strike on Bahrain. 外交突破或伊朗内部转变可能缓和紧张局势,降低袭击巴林的概率。

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500
#13 · Score 176

Arsenal's Title Hopes Dwindle 阿森纳夺冠希望减弱

42% -17.0%

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?


Arsenal's probability of winning the Premier League has dropped to 42% after a recent loss to Manchester City. Manager Mikel Arteta's comments about increased conviction contrast with the team's performance, highlighting the pressure they face. 阿森纳在与曼城的关键比赛中失利,夺冠概率降至42%。尽管阿尔特塔表示球队信心增强,但表现却显示出压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Arsenal lost to Manchester City in a crucial match
  • Arteta's comments suggest internal confidence despite setbacks
  • Recent analysis highlights intense title race dynamics
  • 阿森纳在关键比赛中输给曼城
  • 阿尔特塔的评论显示内部信心
  • 近期分析强调激烈的争冠形势
The outcome of this title race could impact Arsenal's future investments and player retention. A strong finish is essential for maintaining fan and sponsor support. 这场争冠的结果可能影响阿森纳未来的投资和球员留队。强劲的收尾对于维持球迷和赞助商支持至关重要。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Arsenal can rebound and win key upcoming matches, their title chances could significantly improve. 如果阿森纳能够反弹并赢得关键比赛,他们的夺冠机会可能会显著改善。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued poor performance against top teams like Man City could lead to further declines in their title probability. 持续在顶级球队如曼城面前表现不佳可能导致夺冠概率进一步下降。

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500
#14 · Score 176

Manchester City Gains Title Momentum 曼城赢得冠军势头

57% +17.0%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?


Manchester City's probability of winning the Premier League has risen to 57% after a crucial 2-1 victory over Arsenal. This win significantly boosts their confidence as they approach the season's end. 曼城在对阿森纳的关键比赛中以2-1获胜,使他们赢得英超联赛的概率上升至57%。这场胜利显著提升了他们在赛季末的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Manchester City defeated Arsenal 2-1
  • Increased confidence for Pep Guardiola's squad
  • Arsenal's performance under pressure
  • 曼城以2-1战胜阿森纳
  • 瓜迪奥拉的球队信心增强
  • 阿森纳在压力下的表现
This probability shift indicates a strong belief in Manchester City's ability to secure the title, impacting betting and fan engagement. 这一概率变化表明,市场对曼城夺冠的信心增强,影响投注和球迷参与度。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Manchester City continues their winning streak, their title probability could exceed 70%. 如果曼城继续连胜,他们的夺冠概率可能超过70%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If Arsenal rebounds in upcoming matches, Manchester City's title chances may diminish significantly. 如果阿森纳在接下来的比赛中反弹,曼城的夺冠机会可能会显著下降。

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500
#15 · Score 166

US Forces May Seize More Tankers 美国可能会扣押更多油轮

26% -16.2%

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?


The probability of US forces seizing oil tankers has dropped to 26% amid reports of planned operations. Recent headlines indicate a shift in US strategy towards Iran-linked vessels, impacting market expectations. 美国扣押油轮的概率降至26%,因计划行动的报道增多。近期头条显示美国对伊朗关联船只的策略发生变化,影响市场预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US planning to seize Iran-linked oil tankers
  • Marines practicing maritime raids
  • Escalating US naval blockade on Iran
  • 美国计划扣押伊朗关联油轮
  • 海军陆战队进行海上突袭训练
  • 美国对伊朗的海上封锁升级
The situation affects global oil supply and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially influencing oil prices. 这一局势影响全球石油供应和中东地缘政治紧张局势,可能影响油价。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased military readiness and operational plans could lead to successful seizures, raising the probability. 军事准备和行动计划的增加可能导致成功扣押,提升概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Potential diplomatic negotiations or operational challenges may delay or prevent seizures, lowering the probability. 潜在的外交谈判或行动挑战可能延迟或阻止扣押,降低概率。

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500
#16 · Score 160

J.D. Vance's Iran Meeting Uncertainty J.D. Vance与伊朗会晤的不确定性

76% +15.5%

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?


The probability of J.D. Vance meeting Iran has risen to 76% due to conflicting reports about his involvement in upcoming talks. Key events include Trump's comments on security concerns and the White House's efforts to clarify Vance's role. J.D. Vance与伊朗会晤的概率上升至76%,因关于他参与即将举行的谈判的报告不一致。关键事件包括特朗普关于安全问题的评论和白宫澄清Vance角色的努力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump's statement on Vance's absence due to security
  • White House's clarification on Vance's involvement
  • Upcoming US delegation travel to Islamabad for negotiations
  • 特朗普关于Vance因安全缺席的声明
  • 白宫澄清Vance的参与
  • 即将前往伊斯兰堡的美国代表团
This situation reflects the complexities of US-Iran relations and the political maneuvering within the current administration. 这一情况反映了美伊关系的复杂性以及当前政府内部的政治操作。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Vance is confirmed to attend, the probability of a meeting will likely increase significantly. 如果确认Vance参加,会议的概率可能会显著增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If security concerns prevent Vance's participation, the likelihood of a meeting will decrease. 如果安全问题阻止Vance参与,会议的可能性将降低。

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500
#17 · Score 159

Arsenal's 2nd Place Odds Surge 阿森纳次席概率飙升

56% +15.5%

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?


The probability of Arsenal finishing 2nd in the 2025-26 Premier League rose by 15.5% to 56%, primarily driven by their recent 2-1 loss to Manchester City. This defeat significantly impacted their current season's title chances, reinforcing a perception of consistent top-tier performance just shy of champions. 阿森纳在2025-26赛季英超联赛中获得第二名的概率上升了15.5%至56%,主要原因是他们近期以1-2不敌曼城。这场失利显著影响了他们本赛季的夺冠前景,强化了其作为顶级球队但距离冠军总差一步的印象。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Arsenal's 2-1 loss to Manchester City.
  • Reduced current season (2023-24) title prospects.
  • Reinforced 'nearly man' narrative for Arteta's team.
  • Man City's continued perceived dominance.
  • 阿森纳1-2负于曼城。
  • 本赛季(2023-24)夺冠前景受挫。
  • 阿尔特塔球队“千年老二”叙事强化。
  • 曼城持续展现统治力。
This movement reflects market expectations of Arsenal's sustained competitive level, consistently challenging for the title but potentially settling for runner-up status in the long term. 这一变化反映了市场对阿森纳持续竞争力的预期,即他们将持续争夺冠军,但长期来看可能止步于亚军。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Arsenal's consistent top-two performance, often just behind a dominant rival like Man City, makes 2nd place a highly probable outcome. 阿森纳持续保持前两名,常年位居强敌之后,亚军可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Arsenal either strengthens enough to win the title or declines significantly, finishing outside the top two in 2025-26. 阿森纳要么实力大增夺冠,要么大幅下滑跌出前两名。

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500
#18 · Score 155

MegaETH Token Launch Probability Plummets MegaETH代币发布概率大幅下跌

16% -15.0%

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?


The probability of MegaETH launching a token by April 2026 has dropped to 16%, down 15% in 24 hours. This decline follows a lack of recent announcements or developments from MegaETH, raising concerns about its viability. MegaETH在2026年4月前发布代币的概率降至16%,24小时内下降了15%。这一下降源于MegaETH近期缺乏公告或进展,引发了对其可行性的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No recent updates from MegaETH team
  • Market skepticism about crypto projects
  • General decline in crypto investment interest
  • MegaETH团队近期没有更新
  • 市场对加密项目的怀疑
  • 加密投资兴趣普遍下降
The failure to launch could signal broader issues in the crypto market, affecting investor confidence and future projects. 未能发布可能表明加密市场的更广泛问题,影响投资者信心和未来项目。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If MegaETH announces a strategic partnership or significant development, the probability could rise significantly. 如果MegaETH宣布战略合作或重大进展,概率可能会显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued silence from MegaETH or negative market trends could push the probability even lower. MegaETH持续沉默或负面市场趋势可能会进一步降低概率。

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500
#19 · Score 150

Market Volatility Amid Iran Tensions 伊朗紧张局势引发市场波动

8% -14.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20?


The probability of the S&P 500 opening down has increased to 8% due to rising oil prices and falling stock futures. Key events include tensions in Iran affecting market stability and investor reactions to upcoming earnings reports. 由于油价上涨和股指期货下跌,标准普尔500指数开盘向下的概率已升至8%。关键事件包括伊朗紧张局势影响市场稳定,以及投资者对即将发布的财报的反应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Oil prices surged amid Iran tensions
  • Stock futures declined as investors reacted
  • Upcoming earnings reports heighten uncertainty
  • 油价因伊朗紧张局势而飙升
  • 投资者反应导致股指期货下跌
  • 即将发布的财报增加不确定性
These factors indicate potential volatility in the market, impacting investor confidence and trading strategies. 这些因素表明市场可能出现波动,影响投资者信心和交易策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If tensions ease and earnings exceed expectations, the probability of a positive opening could rise significantly. 如果紧张局势缓解且财报超出预期,正开盘的概率可能显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability and disappointing earnings could lead to further declines in market confidence. 持续的地缘政治不稳定和令人失望的财报可能导致市场信心进一步下降。

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500
#20 · Score 139

Manchester City Title Chances Shift 曼城争冠形势变化

42% -13.5%

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?


Manchester City's probability of finishing 2nd dropped to 42% after a 2-1 victory over Arsenal. This win significantly boosted their confidence in the title race. 曼城在战胜阿森纳后,排名第二的概率降至42%。这场胜利显著提升了他们在争冠中的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Manchester City beats Arsenal 2-1
  • Current probability fell by 13.5%
  • Title race intensifying with close competition
  • 曼城以2-1战胜阿森纳
  • 当前概率下降了13.5%
  • 争冠形势愈加紧张
The outcome of this match impacts not only City’s title chances but also their overall standing in the league. A strong finish could influence future market predictions. 这场比赛的结果不仅影响曼城的争冠机会,也影响他们在联赛中的整体排名。强劲的表现可能会影响未来的市场预测。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Manchester City continues winning, their probability of finishing 2nd could rise significantly. 如果曼城继续获胜,他们排名第二的概率可能会显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If City struggles in upcoming matches, their chances of finishing 2nd may decline further. 如果曼城在接下来的比赛中表现不佳,他们排名第二的机会可能会进一步下降。

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500
#21 · Score 138

NVIDIA's Stock Probability Surges NVIDIA股票概率上升

39% +13.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of April 20 2026?


NVIDIA's probability of hitting $184 has risen to 39% due to a 13.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Key drivers include rumors of a relaunch of the RTX 3060 and growing competition in AI chip markets. NVIDIA达到184美元的概率已升至39%,过去24小时上涨13.5%。主要驱动因素包括RTX 3060重启传闻和AI芯片市场竞争加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RTX 3060 relaunch rumors boost investor confidence
  • Increased competition in AI chips from Google and Marvell
  • Positive sentiment from analysts comparing Micron and NVIDIA
  • RTX 3060重启传闻提升投资者信心
  • 谷歌和Marvell在AI芯片领域竞争加剧
  • 分析师对美光和NVIDIA的比较持积极态度
The movement reflects investor optimism about NVIDIA's strategic decisions amidst competitive pressures, impacting its market position. 这一变化反映了投资者对NVIDIA战略决策的乐观情绪,影响其市场地位。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If the RTX 3060 relaunch is successful, demand for NVIDIA products could surge, raising stock prices. 如果RTX 3060重启成功,NVIDIA产品需求可能激增,推动股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intensifying competition in AI chips could erode NVIDIA's market share, driving stock prices down. AI芯片市场竞争加剧可能侵蚀NVIDIA市场份额,导致股价下跌。

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500
#22 · Score 134

Solana Price Prediction Declines 索拉纳价格预测下滑

1% -13.1%

Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 20?


The probability of Solana being between $90 and $100 on April 20 has dropped to 1%. This decline follows a 13.1% drop in price, likely influenced by broader market trends and economic data expectations. 索拉纳在4月20日价格在$90到$100之间的概率已降至1%。这一下降伴随价格在24小时内下跌13.1%,可能受到市场趋势和经济数据预期的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Solana's price fell 13.1% in 24 hours
  • Upcoming US economic data may impact crypto
  • General bearish sentiment in the crypto market
  • 索拉纳价格在24小时内下跌13.1%
  • 即将发布的美国经济数据可能影响加密货币
  • 加密市场普遍看空情绪
The fluctuation in Solana's price reflects broader trends in the cryptocurrency market, which can affect investor confidence and trading strategies. 索拉纳价格波动反映了加密市场的整体趋势,可能影响投资者信心和交易策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If upcoming economic data is favorable, Solana's price could rebound significantly. 如果即将发布的经济数据利好,索拉纳价格可能会大幅反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued negative sentiment in the crypto market could push Solana's price lower. 加密市场持续的负面情绪可能会进一步压低索拉纳价格。

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500
#23 · Score 134

Bank of Mexico Rate Decision Insights 墨西哥央行利率决策洞察

67% +13.0%

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?


The probability of no change in rates rose to 67% following global central banks' cautious stances. Recent decisions by Bank Indonesia and China suggest a trend towards maintaining rates amid inflation concerns. 由于全球央行的谨慎态度,维持利率不变的概率上升至67%。印尼和中国最近的决策表明,在通胀担忧下,保持利率的趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bank Indonesia's decision to hold rates steady
  • China's unchanged lending rates amid growth concerns
  • Global inflation risks linked to geopolitical tensions
  • 印尼决定维持利率不变
  • 中国在增长担忧中维持贷款利率不变
  • 与地缘政治紧张局势相关的全球通胀风险
Central banks' actions influence monetary policy expectations, impacting investment and economic stability. A stable rate could signal confidence in the Mexican economy. 中央银行的行动影响货币政策预期,进而影响投资和经济稳定。稳定的利率可能表明对墨西哥经济的信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If inflation remains controlled, the Bank of Mexico may opt for no rate changes, boosting market confidence. 如果通胀保持受控,墨西哥央行可能选择不变利率,从而增强市场信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected inflation spikes or economic downturns could force the Bank of Mexico to raise rates, lowering the probability of no change. 意外的通胀飙升或经济衰退可能迫使墨西哥央行提高利率,降低不变的概率。

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500
#24 · Score 134

Gold Price Decline Amid Economic Pressures 经济压力下黄金价格下跌

24% -13.0%

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 20?


Gold's probability of rising has dropped to 24% due to a stronger dollar and geopolitical tensions. Recent headlines highlight US-Iran tensions and a stronger dollar impacting gold prices. 由于美元走强和地缘政治紧张局势,黄金上涨概率降至24%。最近的头条强调了美国与伊朗的紧张关系和美元对黄金价格的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Stronger dollar reduces gold's appeal
  • Renewed US-Iran tensions heighten market uncertainty
  • Upcoming US economic data may pressure gold prices
  • 美元走强降低黄金吸引力
  • 美国与伊朗的紧张局势加剧市场不确定性
  • 即将发布的美国经济数据可能施压黄金价格
Gold is often seen as a safe haven; its decline signals investor concerns over economic stability and geopolitical risks. 黄金通常被视为避险资产,其价格下跌表明投资者对经济稳定性和地缘政治风险的担忧。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If US economic data disappoints, gold could rebound as a safe haven asset. 如果美国经济数据令人失望,黄金可能作为避险资产反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued strength in the dollar and geopolitical tensions could further depress gold prices. 美元持续强势和地缘政治紧张局势可能进一步压低黄金价格。

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500
#25 · Score 106

Diplomatic Meeting Probability Declines 外交会议概率下降

4% -10.1%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?


Current probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 2026 is at 4%, down 10.1%. Key driver includes the US seizing an Iranian ship, casting doubt on peace talks. 到2026年4月美国与伊朗会议的概率为4%,下降10.1%。主要驱动因素是美国扣押伊朗船只,令和平谈判蒙上阴影。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US seizes Iranian ship, escalating tensions
  • Iran may not attend peace talks in Pakistan
  • Trump's optimism contrasts with current setbacks
  • 美国扣押伊朗船只,紧张局势升级
  • 伊朗可能不参加巴基斯坦的和平谈判
  • 特朗普的乐观与当前挫折形成对比
The potential meeting is crucial for regional stability and nuclear negotiations. A breakdown in talks could lead to increased conflict. 潜在会议对地区稳定和核谈判至关重要。谈判破裂可能导致冲突加剧。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If the US and Iran finalize a cash-for-uranium deal, it could spur renewed diplomatic engagement. 如果美国与伊朗达成现金换铀协议,可能会重新激发外交接触。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued military actions and diplomatic failures will likely prevent any meeting from occurring. 持续的军事行动和外交失败将可能阻止任何会议的举行。

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500
#26 · Score 103

Oil Price Volatility Amid Tensions 油价因紧张局势波动

40% -10.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on April 20?


WTI Crude Oil probability drops to 40% as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. Recent headlines indicate Iran's threats and U.S. military actions are driving uncertainty. 由于霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势,WTI原油概率降至40%。最近的头条显示,伊朗的威胁和美国的军事行动正在推动不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran restricts access to the Strait of Hormuz
  • U.S. military engagement increases tensions
  • Oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical instability
  • 伊朗限制霍尔木兹海峡通行
  • 美国军事介入加剧紧张局势
  • 地缘政治不稳定导致油价波动
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, making these tensions significant for oil prices worldwide. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油供应的关键瓶颈,这些紧张局势对油价具有重要影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If the ceasefire holds and tensions ease, oil prices could stabilize and rise above $88. 如果停火维持且紧张局势缓解,油价可能稳定并超过88美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If Iran resumes aggressive actions, oil prices may drop further, reducing the likelihood of closing above $88. 如果伊朗恢复攻击行动,油价可能进一步下跌,降低超过88美元的可能性。

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500
#27 · Score 90

Iran Shipping Probability Drops 伊朗航运概率下降

22% -8.5%

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?


The probability of Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz fell to 22%. This decline follows heightened tensions in the region, particularly after recent military exercises by Iran. 伊朗同意霍尔木兹海无限制航运的概率降至22%。这一下降是由于该地区紧张局势加剧,尤其是伊朗最近的军事演习。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran's military exercises raised regional tensions
  • U.S. sanctions affecting Iran's economy
  • Recent diplomatic failures with Western nations
  • 伊朗军事演习加剧地区紧张
  • 美国制裁影响伊朗经济
  • 与西方国家的外交失败
Unrestricted shipping through Hormuz is crucial for global oil supply. Any disruptions could significantly impact oil prices and international relations. 霍尔木兹海的无限制航运对全球石油供应至关重要。任何中断都可能显著影响油价和国际关系。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If diplomatic negotiations improve, Iran may reconsider its shipping policies, raising the probability. 如果外交谈判改善,伊朗可能重新考虑其航运政策,从而提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued military posturing by Iran could solidify its stance against unrestricted shipping, lowering the probability. 伊朗持续的军事姿态可能巩固其反对无限制航运的立场,降低概率。

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500
#28 · Score 88

Apple's Stock Probability Rises 苹果股票概率上升

55% +8.5%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 20?


The current probability of Apple stock going up is 55%, driven by a significant 20% surge in iPhone sales in China. Additionally, the overall positive sentiment in the U.S. stock market as earnings season begins has contributed to this increase. 苹果股票上涨的概率目前为55%,主要受益于中国iPhone销量激增20%。此外,美国财报季的整体积极情绪也推动了这一增长。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • iPhone sales surge 20% in China
  • Positive sentiment from U.S. earnings season
  • Apple's ongoing antitrust case in India
  • 中国iPhone销量激增20%
  • 美国财报季的积极情绪
  • 苹果在印度的反垄断案件
Apple's performance in China is crucial for its revenue growth, and positive earnings can bolster investor confidence. 苹果在中国的表现对其收入增长至关重要,积极的财报可以增强投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong iPhone sales in China could lead to higher revenue forecasts, boosting stock prices. 中国强劲的iPhone销量可能导致更高的收入预测,从而推高股价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ongoing antitrust issues in India may create uncertainty, negatively impacting investor sentiment. 印度的反垄断问题可能带来不确定性,负面影响投资者情绪。

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500
#29 · Score 84

Market Rally Faces Uncertainty 市场反弹面临不确定性

24% -8.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 20?


SPY's probability dropped to 24% after a significant -8% change. The recent short squeeze and optimism from Middle East peace talks fueled the market rally. SPY的概率降至24%,变化幅度为-8%。近期的短期挤压和中东和平谈判的乐观情绪推动了市场反弹。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Short covering by bears driving market rally
  • Middle East peace optimism boosting investor confidence
  • Upcoming earnings season heightening market volatility
  • 空头回补推动市场反弹
  • 中东和平乐观情绪提升投资者信心
  • 即将到来的财报季加剧市场波动
The fluctuations in SPY reflect broader market dynamics influenced by geopolitical events and corporate earnings, impacting investor strategies. SPY的波动反映了受地缘政治事件和企业财报影响的更广泛市场动态,影响投资者策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If earnings reports exceed expectations, SPY's probability could rise significantly. 如果财报超出预期,SPY的概率可能大幅上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any negative earnings surprises could further decrease SPY's probability. 任何负面财报惊喜可能进一步降低SPY的概率。

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#30 · Score 81

Netflix Stock Faces Sharp Decline Netflix股票急剧下跌

0% -7.7%

Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $160?


Netflix's stock plummeted 10% in premarket trading following disappointing earnings. Analysts at Morgan Stanley remain bullish despite a softer Q2 forecast. Netflix在财报后盘前交易中下跌10%。尽管Q2预测疲软,摩根士丹利仍对其持乐观态度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netflix shares fell 10% after earnings report
  • Morgan Stanley issued a bullish call post-earnings
  • Q2 forecast shows lower revenue growth expectations
  • 财报后Netflix股价下跌10%
  • 摩根士丹利发布乐观评级
  • Q2预测显示收入增长预期降低
This decline reflects investor concerns about Netflix's growth trajectory and profitability, impacting overall market confidence in tech stocks. 这一下跌反映了投资者对Netflix增长轨迹和盈利能力的担忧,影响了市场对科技股的信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Netflix's subscriber growth exceeds expectations, the stock could rebound significantly. 如果Netflix的用户增长超出预期,股价可能会显著反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued revenue growth slowdown may lead to further declines in stock price. 持续的收入增长放缓可能导致股价进一步下跌。

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#31 · Score 50

Bank of Japan Rates Likely Unchanged 日本央行利率可能维持不变

94% +4.5%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?


The probability of no change in Bank of Japan's interest rates rose to 94% after recent inflation concerns. The ADB chief's warning about yen pressure highlights the urgency for rate adjustments. 在近期通胀担忧下,日本央行利率不变的概率上升至94%。亚行行长关于日元压力的警告凸显了加息的紧迫性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • ADB chief warns of yen pressure from slow rate hikes
  • Bank Indonesia holds rates amid inflation risks
  • China maintains lending rates despite economic growth
  • 亚行行长警告日元因加息缓慢面临压力
  • 印尼央行因通胀风险维持利率不变
  • 中国在经济增长中维持贷款利率不变
Stable interest rates in Japan could influence global market stability and investor confidence. It reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid rising inflation risks. 日本的稳定利率可能影响全球市场稳定和投资者信心,反映出央行在通胀风险上采取的谨慎态度。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If inflation remains controlled, the Bank of Japan may maintain rates, increasing the probability further. 如果通胀保持可控,日本央行可能维持利率不变,进一步提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected inflation spikes could force the Bank of Japan to reconsider rate changes, lowering the probability. 意外的通胀飙升可能迫使日本央行重新考虑加息,降低概率。

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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。