AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jun 19, 2026 14:22 UTC
#1 · Score 778

US-Iran Talks Collapse 美伊谈判破裂

1% -77.2%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 2026 has plummeted to 1%. This sharp decline was driven by the cancellation of US-Iran peace talks in Geneva, as reported by Reuters, following Iran's firm stance on not letting enriched uranium leave the country. 美伊在2026年6月前举行外交会议的概率已暴跌至1%。此次急剧下降的主要原因是路透社报道的美国与伊朗在日内瓦的和平谈判被取消，此前伊朗就拒绝运出浓缩铀采取了强硬立场。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US-Iran peace talks in Geneva called off.
  • Iran refuses to let enriched uranium leave.
  • 美伊日内瓦和平谈判取消。
  • 伊朗拒绝运出浓缩铀。
This collapse in diplomatic efforts signals a significant escalation of tensions, potentially leading to increased regional instability and a prolonged standoff over Iran's nuclear program. 外交努力的破裂预示着紧张局势的显著升级，可能导致地区局势进一步不稳定，并加剧围绕伊朗核计划的长期僵局。
Vol 24h: $985,252 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Future geopolitical shifts or new mediation efforts could revive high-level diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran. 未来地缘政治变化或新的斡旋努力可能重振美伊之间的高级别外交接触。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The recent cancellation of peace talks and Iran's uranium stance indicate deep, unresolved disagreements, making a meeting highly unlikely. 和平谈判取消和伊朗铀立场，表明分歧深重，会议极不可能。
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500
#2 · Score 585

US-Iran Switzerland Talks Canceled 美伊瑞士会谈取消

31% -58.0%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

The probability of the next US-Iran meeting being in Switzerland plummeted after planned high-level talks involving VP JD Vance were abruptly called off. The Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed the cancellation of Friday's scheduled meeting. 随着原定由副总统万斯参与的美伊高级别会谈被突然取消，下一次美伊会议在瑞士举行的可能性大幅下降。瑞士外交部证实了原定于周五举行的会谈已告取消。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • VP JD Vance canceled Switzerland trip
  • Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed talks off
  • White House canceled planned meeting
  • Logistical issues cited for cancellation
  • 副总统万斯取消瑞士行程
  • 瑞士外交部证实会谈取消
  • 白宫取消原定会议计划
  • 取消原因提及后勤问题
The cancellation highlights ongoing challenges in US-Iran diplomacy and the difficulty of finding neutral ground for high-stakes negotiations, impacting regional stability. 此次取消凸显了美伊外交的持续挑战以及寻找中立谈判地点的难度，影响地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $213,399 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Switzerland remains a historically neutral venue, and future diplomatic efforts might still default to it if other options fail. 瑞士作为传统中立国，未来外交努力在其他选项失败后仍可能选择此地。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Recent cancellations involving VP Vance strongly indicate Switzerland is not the immediate venue for the next US-Iran diplomatic engagement. 副总统万斯近期会谈的取消强烈表明，瑞士并非下一次美伊外交接触的即时地点。
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500
#3 · Score 545

Vance Cancels Switzerland Trip, Iran Ceremony Unlikely 范斯取消瑞士行，签约难料

9% -54.0%

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

The probability of JD Vance attending the US-Iran Signing Ceremony plummeted to 9% following news that he pulled out of his Switzerland trip. This decision led to the calling off of US-Iran peace talks in Geneva. JD范斯出席美伊签约仪式的可能性骤降至9%，此前有消息称他已退出瑞士之行。这一决定导致了日内瓦美伊和谈的取消。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • JD Vance pulls out of Switzerland trip
  • US-Iran peace talks in Geneva called off
  • Vance cancels flight due to logistical issues
  • JD范斯退出瑞士行程
  • 美伊日内瓦和谈被取消
  • 范斯因物流问题取消航班
Vance's absence from the signing ceremony could signal a setback for the US-Iran peace process and alter perceptions of US commitment to the agreement. 范斯缺席签约仪式可能预示着美伊和平进程受挫，并改变外界对美国协议承诺的看法。
Vol 24h: $63,055 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Logistical issues could be swiftly resolved, or a virtual attendance option might emerge for the significant ceremony. 物流问题可能迅速解决，或出现线上出席重要仪式的选项。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Vance has explicitly canceled his Switzerland trip and flight, making his physical attendance highly improbable. 范斯已明确取消瑞士行程和航班，使其亲自出席的可能性极低。
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500
#4 · Score 528

PLTR $126 June Hit Now Certain PLTR六月触及126美元几成定局

100% +52.4%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June?

The probability for Palantir (PLTR) to hit $126 in June surged to 100% due to robust retail trading activity and positive economic data. Record trading volumes on platforms like Robinhood and Webull, coupled with a 0.9% rise in retail sales, fueled broad market optimism. Palantir (PLTR) 六月触及126美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受强劲的散户交易活动和积极的经济数据驱动。Robinhood和Webull等平台创纪录的交易量，加上零售销售增长0.9%，提振了市场整体乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Record trading volumes on retail platforms
  • Positive 0.9% increase in retail sales
  • Strong performance of retail trading platforms
  • 散户交易平台交易量创纪录
  • 零售销售额增长0.9%
  • 零售交易平台表现强劲
This movement reflects strong investor confidence in the broader market and growth stocks, signaling potential continued upward momentum for tech companies like PLTR. 这一走势反映了投资者对整体市场和成长股的强烈信心，预示着Palantir等科技公司可能继续保持上涨势头。
Vol 24h: $1,800 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Surging retail trading volumes and positive economic indicators suggest strong buying interest, pushing PLTR towards the $126 target. 散户交易量激增和积极经济指标预示强劲买盘，推动PLTR股价迈向126美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Lack of specific PLTR news or unexpected market downturns could reverse the current bullish momentum, making the $126 target uncertain. 缺乏PLTR具体利好消息或突发市场下行，可能逆转当前涨势，使126美元目标充满不确定性。
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500
#5 · Score 456

Vance Cancels Iran Talks Trip 范斯取消伊朗会谈行程

32% -45.1%

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

The probability of J.D. Vance attending the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting plummeted by 45.1% to 32% after multiple reports confirmed his planned trip to Switzerland for talks was canceled or delayed. CNN and CNBC cited logistical issues and stalled negotiations as reasons for the postponement. J.D. 范斯出席下一次美伊外交会议的概率暴跌45.1%至32%，此前多方报道证实他原计划前往瑞士参加的会谈已被取消或推迟。CNN和CNBC援引物流问题和谈判停滞作为推迟原因。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • VP Vance canceled Switzerland trip for Iran talks.
  • US-Iran diplomatic meeting in Switzerland put on hold.
  • Logistical issues cited for Vance's trip postponement.
  • 副总统范斯取消赴瑞伊朗会谈。
  • 美伊原定瑞士外交会议搁置。
  • 范斯行程推迟因物流问题。
Vance's direct involvement signals high-level US commitment to Iran diplomacy, and his absence impacts the perceived urgency and direction of future negotiations. 范斯的直接参与预示美国对伊外交的高度重视，他的缺席将影响未来谈判的紧迫性和方向。
Vol 24h: $33,778 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Vance's delay suggests a new meeting will be scheduled where he will still lead US talks with Iran. 范斯推迟行程可能意味着将重新安排由他主导的美伊新一轮会谈。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The cancellation indicates deeper issues or a strategic shift, making Vance's attendance at any near-term meeting unlikely. 会谈取消表明存在更深层问题或战略转变，范斯短期内出席任何会议的可能性降低。
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500
#6 · Score 383

Silver's $230 Target Vanishes on Hawkish Fed 白银230美元目标因鹰派美联储而消失

0% -37.8%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?

The probability of Silver (SI) hitting $230 by end of June has plummeted to 0% from 37.8% in 24 hours. This sharp decline was primarily driven by silver prices sinking as the U.S. dollar tested yearly highs following a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, as reported by Kitco PM. 白银（SI）在6月底前达到230美元的概率在24小时内从37.8%骤降至0%。这一急剧下降主要是由于美联储鹰派立场导致美元测试年内高点，从而使白银价格下跌，Kitco PM报告指出。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Hawkish Federal Reserve stance
  • U.S. dollar strengthening to yearly highs
  • Silver prices sinking significantly
  • 美联储鹰派立场
  • 美元测试年内高点
  • 白银价格显著下跌
This movement reflects the strong inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and precious metals, highlighting how monetary policy dictates commodity price outlooks. It signals a challenging environment for silver investors in the near term. 这一走势反映了美元与贵金属之间强烈的负相关关系，突显了货币政策如何决定大宗商品价格前景。这预示着白银投资者在短期内将面临充满挑战的环境。
Vol 24h: $144,764 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed geopolitical tensions or a sudden dovish shift by the Fed could reignite safe-haven demand and boost silver prices. 地缘政治紧张局势重燃或美联储突然转向鸽派，可能重新点燃避险需求并推高白银价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued U.S. dollar strength and a hawkish Fed will maintain downward pressure on silver, making $230 highly unlikely. 美元持续走强和美联储的鹰派立场将继续对白银施加下行压力，使230美元目标极不可能实现。
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500
#7 · Score 328

AMZN Low Probability Drops 亚马逊触底概率下降

26% -32.5%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June?

The probability of Amazon (AMZN) hitting a low of $232 in June significantly decreased by 32.5% in 24 hours. This shift was primarily driven by a market reassessment of the potential severity and impact of the reported FTC ad suit. 亚马逊 (AMZN) 在6月触及232美元低点的概率在24小时内显著下降32.5%。这一变化主要源于市场对彭博新闻报道的潜在联邦贸易委员会 (FTC) 广告诉讼影响的重新评估。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Market reassessed potential FTC ad suit penalties.
  • Reduced investor concern over 'potential FTC ad suit' impact.
  • Uncertainty around 'may face penalties' from FTC.
  • 市场重新评估FTC潜在广告诉讼影响。
  • 投资者对FTC“潜在广告诉讼”担忧减弱。
  • FTC“可能面临罚款”的不确定性。
This movement reflects investor confidence in Amazon's resilience against regulatory challenges and its ability to maintain stock value above critical support levels. 这一变化反映了投资者对亚马逊抵御监管挑战的信心，及其维持股价在关键支撑位之上的能力。
Vol 24h: $1,261 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Investors believe the 'potential FTC ad suit' penalties will be less severe than initially feared, limiting downside risk for AMZN. 投资者认为“潜在FTC广告诉讼”的罚款将低于预期，限制了亚马逊的下行风险。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the recent drop, the ongoing 'potential FTC ad suit' still poses a significant regulatory overhang for Amazon's stock. 尽管近期概率下降，但“潜在FTC广告诉讼”仍对亚马逊股价构成重大监管压力。
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500
#8 · Score 258

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

42% +25.4%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $27,000 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 191

Trump Agrees Iran Troop Withdrawal 特朗普同意撤兵伊朗

100% +18.4%

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

The probability surged to 100% as President Trump signed a ceasefire agreement and a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, with officials revealing details of a 14-paragraph deal. This indicates a comprehensive agreement is imminent, likely including troop withdrawal. 随着特朗普总统与伊朗签署停火协议和谅解备忘录，并有官员透露一项14点协议的细节，该市场概率飙升至100%。这表明一项全面协议即将达成，很可能包括撤兵。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran.
  • US officials revealed details of a 14-paragraph deal.
  • Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
  • Israeli media reacted to Trump's 'retreat on Iran.'
  • 特朗普与伊朗签署停火协议。
  • 美国官员披露14点协议细节。
  • 特朗普签署了谅解备忘录（MoU）。
  • 以色列媒体评论特朗普“对伊退让”。
This agreement could significantly de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, reshape US foreign policy, and impact regional power dynamics. 该协议可能显著缓解中东紧张局势，重塑美国外交政策，并影响地区权力平衡。
Vol 24h: $1,879,791 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Multiple signed agreements and Trump's public statements confirm a comprehensive deal, including troop withdrawal, is finalized. 多项已签署协议及特朗普公开声明确认全面协议，包括撤兵，已最终敲定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite agreements, Trump's caveat about resuming attacks or last-minute details could prevent full troop withdrawal. 尽管有协议，特朗普关于恢复袭击的警告或最后一刻细节可能阻止全面撤兵。
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500
#10 · Score 189

Bitcoin $62K Target Confidence Dips 比特币6.2万目标信心下降

64% -18.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?

The probability of Bitcoin being above $62,000 by June 22 decreased by 18.5% to 64%, driven by a "Serious $10 Trillion Fed Crash Warning" and reports of Bitcoin struggling due to the AI boom. 比特币在6月22日突破6.2万美元的概率下降18.5%至64%，主要受“美联储万亿级崩溃警告”及AI投资热潮导致比特币承压报告影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "Serious $10 Trillion Fed Crash Warning"
  • Bitcoin struggling from AI investment boom
  • Increased short-term market risk aversion
  • “美联储万亿级崩溃警告”发布
  • AI投资热潮对比特币造成压力
  • 市场短期避险情绪上升
This reflects growing investor caution on Bitcoin's short-term outlook amid broader economic concerns and capital shift towards AI. 这反映了投资者对短期比特币表现的谨慎态度，受宏观经济担忧和资金流向AI领域的影响。
Vol 24h: $11,087 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Prominent analysts like Kiyosaki predict Bitcoin could reach $250,000, potentially attracting buyers to push above $62,000. 知名分析师如清崎预测比特币将达25万美元，可能吸引买家推高价格突破6.2万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A "Serious $10 Trillion Fed Crash Warning" and AI boom diverting capital could keep Bitcoin below $62,000. 美联储崩溃警告和AI热潮可能持续施压，使比特币难以突破6.2万美元。
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500
#11 · Score 179

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?

20% -17.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $26,982 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 178

SpaceX $3.0T Valuation Probability Plunges SpaceX 3万亿估值概率骤降

11% -17.3%

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

SpaceX's probability of reaching a $3.0T valuation by June 30 plummeted 17.3% to 11%, indicating a significant reassessment of its short-term growth prospects. This sharp decline likely reflects growing skepticism regarding the feasibility of achieving such an aggressive valuation target within the tight deadline. SpaceX在6月30日前达到3.0万亿美元估值的可能性骤降17.3%至11%，表明市场对其短期增长前景进行了重大重新评估。这一急剧下降可能反映出市场对在如此紧迫的期限内实现这一激进估值目标的可行性日益怀疑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Starship operational timeline reassessment
  • Tightening private capital market conditions
  • $3.0T valuation target's short-term difficulty
  • 星舰运营时间表重新评估
  • 私募资本市场环境收紧
  • 3万亿估值短期实现难度
A lower probability for this valuation reflects broader investor caution towards ambitious private company targets and the challenges of rapid scaling in the space industry. It could influence future funding rounds and strategic decisions for SpaceX. 估值概率下降反映了投资者对雄心勃勃的私营公司目标和航天业快速扩张挑战的普遍谨慎态度。这可能影响SpaceX未来的融资轮次和战略决策。
Vol 24h: $46,893 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Major Starship test success or unexpected new government contract could rapidly boost valuation confidence. 星舰重大测试成功或意外获得新政府合同，可迅速提振估值信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued Starship delays and a challenging private funding environment will make the $3.0T target unattainable. 星舰持续延误及私募融资环境挑战将使3.0万亿美元目标无法实现。
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500
#13 · Score 155

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

22% -15.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $303,674 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 155

Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Ethereum Up or Down on June 19?

64% +15.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on June 19?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $47,817 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 146

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

26% +14.2%

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,561 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 145

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026

12% -14.0%

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $185,012 Polymarket ↗
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#17 · Score 144

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

12% -14.0%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $9,462 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 136

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

42% -13.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $366,660 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 126

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

54% -12.0%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,896,792 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 119

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

32% -11.5%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,762 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 118

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?

0% -11.3%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $64,881 Polymarket ↗
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500
#22 · Score 115

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

57% -11.0%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $98,006 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 110

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?

60% +10.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $268,904 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 107

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

6% -10.4%

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $825 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 104

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?

14% -10.0%

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $7,885 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 104

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?

16% +9.9%

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $67,942 Polymarket ↗
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500
#27 · Score 104

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

78% -10.0%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,070 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 95

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026

48% -9.0%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $42,989 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 88

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?

32% -8.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,276 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 86

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

10% -8.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,628,469 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。