AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jun 07, 2026 12:49 UTC
#1 · Score 473

Bitcoin Plunges, Downside Bets Soar 比特币暴跌，看跌概率飙升

96% +46.8%

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7?

Bitcoin's probability of being down on June 7 surged to 96% after crashing below $60,000 for the first time in 20 months and experiencing its longest losing streak since August. This reflects a brutal sell-off in the first week of June, driving market confidence in further declines. 比特币在6月5日跌破6万美元，创20个月新低，并经历自去年8月以来最长连跌，导致其在6月7日下跌的概率飙升至96%。这反映了6月第一周的残酷抛售，推动市场对进一步下跌的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin crashed below $60,000 on June 5.
  • Longest losing streak since August.
  • Plunged over 15% in early June.
  • Zcash bug added crypto market pressure.
  • 比特币6月5日跌破6万美元。
  • 创下去年8月以来最长连跌。
  • 6月初累计下跌超过15%。
  • Zcash漏洞加剧加密市场压力。
The sharp decline and breach of key psychological support levels signal significant investor capitulation and potential for broader market contagion. This impacts crypto adoption and overall market confidence. 价格急剧下跌并跌破关键心理支撑位，预示着投资者恐慌性抛售，可能对更广泛的市场产生连锁反应。这影响加密货币的采用和整体市场信心。
Vol 24h: $126,456 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A technical rebound from severely oversold conditions or unexpected positive macroeconomic data could trigger a short-term price recovery. 严重超卖后的技术性反弹或意外的宏观经济利好消息可能引发短期价格回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure, further macroeconomic headwinds, or breaking additional support levels could deepen the current downtrend. 持续的抛售压力、进一步的宏观经济逆风或跌破更多支撑位可能加剧当前下跌趋势。
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500
#2 · Score 422

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7?

5% -41.8%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $32,478 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#3 · Score 340

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?

86% +33.5%

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $149,413 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 284

Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?

50% -28.0%

Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $6,940 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 278

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?

5% -27.4%

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $53,721 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 219

Solana $60 Dip Odds Fall Solana跌至60美元概率下降

65% -21.4%

Will Solana dip to $60 in June?

The probability of Solana dipping to $60 in June decreased by 21.4% to 65%, despite Bitcoin crashing below $60,000 for the first time in 20 months. This suggests Solana is showing unexpected resilience or a swift rebound amidst broader crypto market weakness. Solana在6月跌至60美元的概率下降了21.4%至65%，尽管比特币20个月来首次跌破6万美元。这表明在更广泛的加密市场疲软中，Solana表现出意想不到的韧性或迅速反弹。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin crashing below $60,000
  • Solana's relative price resilience
  • Market re-evaluating Solana support
  • 比特币跌破6万美元
  • Solana价格相对坚挺
  • 市场重估Solana支撑位
This movement indicates a potential decoupling or stronger underlying fundamentals for Solana compared to Bitcoin's recent volatility, influencing investor confidence in altcoins. 这一走势表明Solana可能与比特币近期波动脱钩，或其基本面更强，影响投资者对山寨币的信心。
Vol 24h: $29,825 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Solana's resilience despite Bitcoin's dip shows strong buying interest and support, making a $60 dip less likely. Solana在比特币下跌中表现韧性，买盘强劲，支撑稳固，跌破60美元概率低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued Bitcoin weakness could eventually drag Solana down, forcing it to test the $60 level despite current resilience. 比特币持续疲软或拖累Solana，使其即使有韧性也可能测试60美元。
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500
#7 · Score 195

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

36% -19.0%

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $65,980 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 193

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

64% +18.8%

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

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Vol 24h: $91,540 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 169

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?

74% +16.5%

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $4,605 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 144

Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12?

25% +14.0%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $11,740 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 139

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

48% -13.5%

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $7,888 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 134

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

57% -13.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $12,305 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 108

Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?

44% +10.5%

Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $3,078 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 107

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?

25% +10.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $66,992 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 103

Durable Goods Orders Outlook Improves 耐用品订单前景改善

36% +10.0%

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

The probability for May Durable Goods Orders MoM to be between 2% and 4% increased by 10% to 36%. This surge was driven by strong preliminary Class 8 truck net orders and an uptick in US manufacturing employment. 5月份耐用品订单环比增长2%至4%的概率上升10%至36%。这一增长主要受强劲的初步8级卡车净订单和美国制造业就业增加的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Strong May Class 8 truck net orders
  • US manufacturing employment increased by 7,000
  • Canada's Ivey PMI rose to eight-month high
  • 5月8级卡车净订单强劲
  • 美国制造业就业增加7,000人
  • 加拿大Ivey PMI升至8个月高点
Durable goods orders are a key indicator of business investment and consumer confidence, reflecting the health and future direction of the manufacturing sector and broader economy. 耐用品订单是衡量商业投资和消费者信心的关键指标，反映了制造业和整体经济的健康状况及未来走向。
Vol 24h: $2,857 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Robust Class 8 truck orders and continued manufacturing job growth indicate strong demand, likely pushing May durable goods orders into the 2-4% range. 强劲的8级卡车订单和持续的制造业就业增长预示需求旺盛，可能推动5月耐用品订单进入2-4%区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite positive signs, overall economic moderation or specific sector weakness could cause orders to fall outside the 2-4% target range. 尽管有积极迹象，但整体经济放缓或特定行业疲软可能导致订单增长超出或低于2-4%的目标范围。
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500
#16 · Score 88

Oversupply Boosts Egg Price Range 供应过剩推高鸡蛋价格区间概率

57% +8.5%

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?

The probability of a dozen eggs costing $2.00-$2.25 in May rose to 57%, primarily driven by reports of egg oversupply. This suggests market expectations are shifting towards prices stabilizing within this specific range. 5月份一打鸡蛋价格在2.00-2.25美元之间的概率升至57%，主要受鸡蛋供应过剩报告驱动。这表明市场预期价格将稳定在该特定区间内。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Egg oversupply concerns reported by John Lindt.
  • UN's assessment of "mostly stable" food prices in May.
  • Rising world cereal prices impacting feed costs.
  • 约翰·林特报道的鸡蛋供应过剩担忧。
  • 联合国评估5月份食品价格“基本稳定”。
  • 全球谷物价格上涨影响饲料成本。
Egg prices are a key indicator of food inflation and consumer purchasing power, directly affecting household budgets. 鸡蛋价格是衡量食品通胀和消费者购买力的关键指标，直接影响家庭预算。
Vol 24h: $2,603 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued egg oversupply could push prices down into the $2.00-$2.25 range from higher levels, increasing the probability. 鸡蛋持续供应过剩可能将价格从高位推入2.00-2.25美元区间，从而提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising feed costs or unexpected demand spikes could push egg prices above $2.25, decreasing the probability. 饲料成本上升或需求意外激增可能将鸡蛋价格推高至2.25美元以上，降低概率。
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500
#17 · Score 79

Rubio's NATO Attendance Surges 卢比奥北约峰会出席率大涨

93% +7.5%

Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?

The probability of Marco Rubio attending the NATO Summit jumped to 93% following recent news confirming his role as US Secretary of State. This position makes his attendance a standard diplomatic expectation. 马可·卢比奥出席北约峰会的概率升至93%，主要驱动因素是近期新闻确认他担任美国国务卿。此职位使其出席峰会成为标准外交职责。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Sky News Australia confirms Rubio as US Secretary of State.
  • Mediaite article also identifies Rubio as Secretary of State.
  • Secretary of State routinely attends NATO Summits.
  • 天空新闻澳大利亚确认卢比奥为美国国务卿。
  • Mediaite文章亦指明卢比奥为国务卿。
  • 国务卿通常出席北约峰会。
The Secretary of State's presence at NATO is crucial for U.S. foreign policy and alliance cohesion, especially given current European security concerns. 国务卿出席北约峰会对美国外交政策和联盟团结至关重要，尤其考虑到当前欧洲安全局势。
Vol 24h: $21,871 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 As the confirmed US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio's attendance at a NATO Summit is a standard and expected diplomatic duty. 作为已确认的美国国务卿，马可·卢比奥出席北约峰会是其标准且预期的外交职责。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen diplomatic conflicts, health issues, or a sudden change in administration could prevent his attendance. 意外的外交冲突、健康问题或政府突变可能阻止他出席。
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500
#18 · Score 73

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?

61% -7.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?

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Vol 24h: $695 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 64

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

22% -6.0%

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $8,853 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 64

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

36% -6.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $4,703 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 59

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8?

49% +5.5%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $5,604 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 58

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June?

76% -5.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June?

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Vol 24h: $757 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 55

US strike on Cuba by December 31? US strike on Cuba by December 31?

40% -5.0%

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $130,868 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 54

Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?

82% -5.0%

Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $9,827 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 51

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

2% -4.8%

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $4,880 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 49

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

46% +4.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $26,511 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 49

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

6% +4.5%

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,427 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 45

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?

18% -4.2%

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,516 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 43

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

22% -4.0%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,827 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 43

Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?

2% -4.0%

Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,242 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 26

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

2% -2.2%

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,167 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。