AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Apr 23, 2026 06:34 UTC
#1 · Score 509

SPY $690 Low Probability Halves 标普500触及690低点概率减半

1% -50.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of April 20 2026?


The probability of S&P 500 (SPY) hitting a $690 low by April 2026 dropped 50.5% to 1%. This decline is primarily driven by Wall Street analysts forecasting 9-12% gains for the S&P 500, suggesting a higher price floor. 标普500 (SPY) 在2026年4月触及690美元低点的概率骤降50.5%至1%。这主要受华尔街分析师预测标普500指数到2026年将上涨9%至12%的推动,预示着更高的价格底部。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Wall Street analysts project 9-12% S&P 500 gains by 2026.
  • VOO's expected 2026 price range is $692-$711, above $690.
  • Market participants perceive reduced chance of SPY dipping to $690.
  • 华尔街分析师预测2026年标普500上涨9-12%。
  • VOO 2026年预期价格区间692-711美元,高于690美元。
  • 市场参与者认为SPY跌至690美元低点的可能性降低。
This movement indicates a stronger market conviction that the S&P 500 will maintain a higher floor, reducing the likelihood of significant dips to specific lower price points. It reflects evolving long-term market expectations. 这一变化表明市场更坚信标普500将维持更高的价格底部,降低了跌至特定低点的可能性。它反映了长期市场预期的演变。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If S&P 500 rallies significantly above $700, a subsequent correction could make $690 a plausible weekly low. 若标普500大幅上涨至700美元以上,随后的调整可能使690美元成为周内低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Wall Street's 9-12% gain forecast suggests SPY will trade comfortably above $690, making a dip to $690 as a low unlikely. 华尔街预测9-12%的涨幅表明SPY将远高于690美元,使其作为低点不太可能。

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500
#2 · Score 508

Oil Price Certainty: Hormuz Risk 油价确定性:霍尔木兹风险

100% +50.4%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of April 20 2026?


WTI Crude Oil's probability of hitting $95 by April 2026 surged to 100% following Citi analysts' warning that Strait of Hormuz disruptions could push prices to $130. This reflects heightened market concern over potential supply shocks despite other headlines indicating short-term price declines. 继花旗分析师警告霍尔木兹海峡中断可能导致油价飙升至130美元后,西德克萨斯轻质原油在2026年4月前触及95美元的概率飙升至100%。这反映出市场对潜在供应冲击的高度担忧,尽管其他头条新闻显示短期价格下跌。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Citi's $130 oil projection from Hormuz disruption.
  • Increased geopolitical risk in critical oil shipping lanes.
  • Market discounting short-term price falls for long-term supply risk.
  • 花旗预测霍尔木兹中断致油价130美元。
  • 关键石油航运路线地缘政治风险加剧。
  • 市场看重长期供应风险而非短期下跌。
A sustained high oil price could fuel global inflation, impact consumer spending, and shift geopolitical power dynamics, affecting energy security worldwide. 持续高油价可能加剧全球通胀,影响消费者支出,并改变地缘政治格局,影响全球能源安全。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger significant supply disruptions, easily pushing WTI above $95 by 2026. 中东地缘政治紧张局势升级,特别是霍尔木兹海峡,可能引发重大供应中断,轻松推动WTI在2026年前突破95美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Successful diplomatic efforts in Iran and increased global oil production, like Rystad's South American supply, could stabilize markets below $95. 伊朗和平谈判成功及全球石油产量增加(如Rystad预测的南美供应),可能稳定市场,使WTI保持在95美元以下。

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500
#3 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up Probability Zeroed 比特币上涨概率归零

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET


The probability of Bitcoin being up by April 22, 10 PM ET, has plummeted to 0% from 50% in 24 hours. This drastic shift indicates that Bitcoin's price has already moved significantly downwards or remained flat, making an 'Up' outcome impossible by the settlement time. 比特币在4月22日晚上10点(美国东部时间)上涨的概率在24小时内从50%骤降至0%。这一剧烈变化表明比特币价格已显著下跌或持平,使得在结算时间前上涨已不可能。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's current price trajectory
  • Imminent market settlement time
  • Absence of positive crypto news
  • 比特币当前价格走势
  • 市场结算时间临近
  • 缺乏利好加密货币消息
A 0% probability signals extreme certainty in the market's direction for Bitcoin, reflecting either a major price movement or the imminent settlement of the prediction market. It highlights the rapid shifts possible in crypto markets. 0%的概率表明市场对比特币走向极度确定,反映了价格的重大变动或预测市场即将结算。这突显了加密市场快速变化的特性。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unforeseen, dramatic late-day surge in Bitcoin's price could theoretically occur before 10 PM ET. 在晚上10点(美国东部时间)前,比特币价格可能出现不可预见的戏剧性尾盘飙升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's price has already fallen below its starting point, making an 'Up' outcome impossible by the 10 PM ET deadline. 比特币价格已跌破起始点,使其在晚上10点(美国东部时间)截止前上涨变得不可能。

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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Probability Plummets 比特币概率骤降

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9PM ET


Bitcoin's probability dropped to 0% after a significant 24-hour decline of 50%. This movement was driven by bearish market sentiment and negative news surrounding global economic conditions. 比特币的概率降至0%,24小时内下降50%。这一变化是由于市场情绪悲观和全球经济状况的负面消息驱动的。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent oil price declines amid US-Iran tensions
  • Negative trends in agricultural commodities like soybeans
  • General market uncertainty affecting cryptocurrencies
  • 美国与伊朗紧张局势导致油价下跌
  • 大豆等农产品的负面趋势
  • 影响加密货币的一般市场不确定性
The drop in Bitcoin's probability reflects broader economic instability, which can lead to reduced investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. 比特币概率的下降反映了更广泛的经济不稳定,可能导致投资者对加密货币的信心降低。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden positive regulatory announcement could reverse the trend and boost Bitcoin's value. 突发的积极监管公告可能逆转趋势,提升比特币价值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued economic downturns and regulatory crackdowns could further depress Bitcoin's price. 持续的经济衰退和监管打压可能进一步压低比特币价格。

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500
#5 · Score 461

Natural Gas Price Prediction Declines 天然气价格预测下降

12% -45.8%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 20 2026?


The probability of NG hitting $2.60 has dropped to 12% due to a significant 45.8% decline in the last 24 hours. This shift is likely driven by recent inventory reports showing higher-than-expected natural gas supplies. 天然气达到$2.60的概率降至12%,24小时内下降了45.8%。这一变化可能是由于最近的库存报告显示天然气供应超出预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent inventory reports show oversupply
  • Mild weather forecasts reducing demand
  • Increased production rates from shale gas
  • 近期库存报告显示供应过剩
  • 温和天气预报降低需求
  • 页岩气产量增加
Fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact energy markets and consumer costs significantly. Understanding these drivers helps investors navigate potential risks. 天然气价格波动会显著影响能源市场和消费者成本。了解这些驱动因素有助于投资者应对潜在风险。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If winter weather turns severe, demand could spike, raising prices above $2.60. 如果冬季天气变得严寒,需求可能激增,推动价格超过$2.60。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued oversupply and mild weather could keep prices low, pushing them below $2.60. 持续的供应过剩和温和天气可能使价格保持低位,低于$2.60。

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500
#6 · Score 448

Tesla Stock Probability Plummets 特斯拉股票概率大幅下跌

5% -44.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of April 20 2026?


Current probability for TSLA hitting $442.50 has dropped to 5% due to a negative analyst warning and mixed earnings outlook. A last-minute report predicted a significant earnings miss, causing investor concern. TSLA达到442.50美元的概率降至5%,因分析师警告和财报前景不明。最后时刻的报告预测重大盈利失误,引发投资者担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Last-minute analyst warning predicts 95% downside risk
  • Mixed Q1 earnings report with slight beat
  • General market skepticism about Tesla's growth
  • 最后时刻分析师警告预测95%下行风险
  • Q1财报略超预期但反响平平
  • 市场对特斯拉增长的普遍怀疑
This decline in probability reflects broader concerns about Tesla's future performance and investor confidence in the electric vehicle market. 这一概率下降反映了市场对特斯拉未来表现和电动车市场投资者信心的广泛担忧。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Tesla's upcoming innovations outperform expectations, the stock could rebound significantly. 如果特斯拉即将推出的创新超出预期,股票可能会大幅反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued negative analyst sentiment could lead to further declines in stock value. 持续的负面分析师情绪可能导致股票价值进一步下跌。

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500
#7 · Score 440

Iran Ship Targeting Probability Drops 伊朗攻击船只概率下降

1% -43.5%

Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?


The probability of Iran successfully targeting 6-7 ships has decreased to 1%. This decline is driven by a lack of recent aggressive actions or statements from Iranian officials. 伊朗成功攻击6-7艘船只的概率已降至1%。这一下降是由于近期没有伊朗官员的激进行动或声明。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No recent military actions reported by Iran
  • Statements from US officials indicating deterrence
  • Increased naval presence in the region
  • 伊朗近期没有报告军事行动
  • 美国官员表态显示威慑力
  • 该地区海军力量增加
This situation reflects ongoing tensions in the region and the potential for conflict escalation. A lower probability suggests reduced immediate threats to maritime security. 这一局势反映了该地区持续的紧张局势及冲突升级的潜力。概率降低表明对海上安全的即时威胁减小。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Iran conducts a surprise attack, the probability could spike significantly. 如果伊朗进行突袭,概率可能会大幅上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued diplomatic efforts may further diminish the likelihood of Iranian aggression. 持续的外交努力可能进一步降低伊朗侵略的可能性。

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500
#8 · Score 425

Bitcoin Probability Drops Significantly 比特币概率大幅下降

8% -42.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11PM ET


The probability of Bitcoin rising has plummeted to 8%, primarily driven by a 42% drop in the last 24 hours. This decline coincides with broader market instability and negative sentiment in commodities like soybeans and oil. 比特币上涨的概率降至8%,主要因过去24小时内价格下跌42%。这一下降与大宗商品市场的不稳定和负面情绪相吻合。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 42% drop in Bitcoin price
  • Negative commodity market trends
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices
  • 比特币价格下跌42%
  • 大宗商品市场趋势不佳
  • 地缘政治紧张局势影响油价
This decline reflects investor uncertainty and could signal further volatility in the cryptocurrency market, impacting overall trading strategies. 这一下降反映了投资者的不确定性,可能预示着加密货币市场的进一步波动,影响整体交易策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden positive regulatory announcement could reverse the trend and boost Bitcoin prices. 突发的积极监管公告可能逆转趋势,推动比特币价格上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued market instability and negative economic indicators could drive prices lower. 持续的市场不稳定和负面经济指标可能导致价格进一步下跌。

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500
#9 · Score 425

Bitcoin Probability Plummets 比特币概率大幅下降

8% -42.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23?


The probability of Bitcoin rising on April 23 has dropped to 8%. This significant decline is driven by recent regulatory concerns and market volatility. 比特币在4月23日上涨的概率降至8%。这一显著下降是由于近期的监管担忧和市场波动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Increased regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies
  • Recent market sell-off due to macroeconomic fears
  • Negative sentiment from influential investors
  • 加大对加密货币的监管审查
  • 由于宏观经济担忧导致市场抛售
  • 来自影响力投资者的负面情绪
These factors could indicate a prolonged bearish trend for Bitcoin, affecting investor confidence and market stability. 这些因素可能表明比特币将面临长期的熊市趋势,影响投资者信心和市场稳定。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden positive regulatory announcement could reverse the trend and boost prices significantly. 突发的积极监管公告可能会逆转趋势,显著推动价格上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued economic uncertainty and negative news could further depress Bitcoin's price. 持续的经济不确定性和负面新闻可能进一步压低比特币价格。

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500
#10 · Score 293

US-Iran Talks Uncertainty Grows 美伊会谈不确定性加剧

6% -28.9%

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 24?


The probability of the April 24 meeting has dropped significantly to 6% due to Iran's refusal to confirm participation. Key drivers include Trump's comments on ceasefire and Iran's lack of plans for negotiations. 由于伊朗拒绝确认参与,4月24日会议的概率显著下降至6%。关键驱动因素包括特朗普关于停火的言论和伊朗缺乏谈判计划。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran states it has 'no plans' for talks
  • Trump unlikely to extend Iran ceasefire
  • US seizes Iranian ship, escalating tensions
  • 伊朗表示没有谈判计划
  • 特朗普不太可能延长伊朗停火
  • 美国扣押伊朗船只,紧张局势升级
The outcome of these talks could significantly impact US-Iran relations and regional stability. A failure to negotiate may lead to increased hostilities. 这些会谈的结果可能会显著影响美伊关系和地区稳定。谈判失败可能导致敌对行动增加。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Iran signals readiness for talks, the probability could rise significantly. 如果伊朗表示愿意谈判,概率可能会显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued escalation and refusal to negotiate will likely keep the probability low. 持续升级和拒绝谈判将可能使概率保持低位。

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500
#11 · Score 289

Bitcoin Surges Towards $78,000 比特币逼近$78,000

100% +28.4%

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?


Bitcoin's probability of reaching $78,000 has surged to 100% due to increased institutional buying and positive regulatory news. Notably, major firms like BlackRock have shown renewed interest in Bitcoin ETFs. 比特币达到$78,000的概率已飙升至100%,主要由于机构购买增加和积极的监管消息。尤其是像黑石这样的主要公司重新关注比特币ETF。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Increased institutional buying from firms like BlackRock
  • Positive regulatory news regarding Bitcoin ETFs
  • Growing adoption of Bitcoin as a payment method
  • 黑石等公司的机构购买增加
  • 关于比特币ETF的积极监管消息
  • 比特币作为支付方式的日益普及
This surge reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin's stability and potential for mainstream adoption, which could influence future market trends. 这一上涨反映了市场对比特币稳定性和主流采用潜力的信心,可能影响未来市场趋势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued institutional investment could drive Bitcoin prices even higher, surpassing $78,000. 持续的机构投资可能推动比特币价格更高,超过$78,000。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory setbacks or market corrections could lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin's price. 监管阻力或市场调整可能导致比特币价格大幅下跌。

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500
#12 · Score 219

Wall Street Gains on Ceasefire News 华尔街因停火消息上涨

100% +21.4%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 22?


Wall Street is set to open higher as President Trump extends the ceasefire, alleviating geopolitical tensions. This development has significantly boosted investor confidence. 由于特朗普总统延长停火协议,华尔街预计开盘走高,缓解了地缘政治紧张局势。此发展显著提升了投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump extends ceasefire, reducing geopolitical risks
  • Positive market reaction to ceasefire news
  • Recent earnings reports showing strong corporate performance
  • 特朗普延长停火,降低地缘风险
  • 市场对停火消息反应积极
  • 近期财报显示企业表现强劲
The extension of the ceasefire can stabilize markets and encourage investment, impacting overall economic sentiment. 停火的延续可以稳定市场,鼓励投资,影响整体经济情绪。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If the ceasefire leads to lasting peace, investor confidence could surge further. 如果停火导致持久和平,投资者信心可能进一步飙升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 If Iran resumes hostilities, market volatility could increase, driving SPY lower. 如果伊朗恢复敌对行动,市场波动性可能增加,SPY将下跌。

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500
#13 · Score 195

Gold Price Decline Influences Market Probability 黄金价格下跌影响市场概率

23% -19.1%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?


Gold's price fell 1.51% to $4,756.27, impacting market expectations. Mixed signals from US-Iran talks added uncertainty to gold's outlook. 黄金价格下跌1.51%,至每盎司$4,756.27,影响市场预期。美国与伊朗的谈判信号混杂,增加了黄金前景的不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Gold price drops to $4,756.27 per ounce
  • US-Iran talks create market uncertainty
  • FTSE 100 miners lead market despite gold decline
  • 黄金价格跌至每盎司$4,756.27
  • 美国与伊朗谈判造成市场不确定性
  • FTSE 100矿业公司尽管黄金下跌仍引领市场
The fluctuation in gold prices reflects broader economic conditions and geopolitical tensions, influencing investor behavior and market predictions. 黄金价格波动反映了更广泛的经济状况和地缘政治紧张局势,影响投资者行为和市场预测。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If geopolitical tensions escalate, gold could surge past $4,900 as a safe haven asset. 如果地缘政治紧张局势升级,黄金作为避险资产可能飙升至$4,900以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued declines in gold prices may lead to reduced investor confidence, pushing the probability lower. 黄金价格持续下跌可能导致投资者信心下降,从而降低概率。

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500
#14 · Score 193

Apple's Stock Surge Driven by Earnings Optimism 苹果股价因盈利乐观上涨

60% +19.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of April?


Apple's probability of closing above $270 has risen to 60% due to strong earnings expectations. Recent reports indicate robust AI-related sales and positive market sentiment following tech earnings. 苹果股价在强劲盈利预期下,收盘超过270美元的概率上升至60%。近期报告显示,AI相关销售强劲,市场情绪积极。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Strong earnings expectations from tech sector
  • AI optimism boosting overall market sentiment
  • Recent positive performance of major tech stocks
  • 科技行业强劲的盈利预期
  • AI乐观情绪提升整体市场信心
  • 主要科技股近期表现积极
A rise in Apple's stock price could indicate broader confidence in the tech sector, influencing investment decisions across the market. 苹果股价的上涨可能表明市场对科技行业的信心,影响投资决策。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Apple reports better-than-expected earnings, the stock could surge past $270. 如果苹果的盈利超出预期,股价可能突破270美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any disappointing earnings or market corrections could push the stock below $270. 任何令人失望的盈利或市场修正可能导致股价跌破270美元。

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500
#15 · Score 177

AI Investments Boost Microsoft Outlook AI投资提升微软前景

100% +17.4%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of April 20 2026?


Microsoft's stock probability surged to 100% following positive commentary on software investments. Goldman Sachs highlighted a strong earnings backdrop due to AI and hyperscaler investments. 微软股票概率因软件投资积极评论而飙升至100%。高盛强调,由于AI和超大规模投资,盈利前景强劲。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Goldman Sachs cites strong AI investment growth
  • Positive outlook on software sector from Jefferies
  • Recent earnings reports show robust performance
  • 高盛指出AI投资增长强劲
  • 杰富瑞对软件行业持积极展望
  • 近期财报显示强劲表现
The focus on AI and software investments indicates a strong growth trajectory for Microsoft, influencing investor confidence. 对AI和软件投资的关注表明微软的强劲增长轨迹,增强了投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued AI advancements and market leadership could drive Microsoft stock significantly higher. 持续的AI进步和市场领导地位可能会大幅推动微软股票上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A downturn in tech investments or economic challenges could negatively impact Microsoft's stock performance. 技术投资下滑或经济挑战可能对微软股票表现产生负面影响。

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500
#16 · Score 165

Traffic Disruption Concerns Rise 交通中断担忧加剧

44% -16.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?


Current probability dropped to 44% amid fears of ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent military exercises by Iran have raised concerns about shipping safety. 由于地缘政治紧张局势,当前概率降至44%。伊朗近期的军事演习引发了对航运安全的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran's military drills near the Strait of Hormuz
  • Increased insurance costs for shipping
  • Global oil price fluctuations due to instability
  • 伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近的军事演习
  • 航运保险成本上升
  • 因不稳定导致的全球油价波动
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, impacting economies worldwide. Disruptions can lead to higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油供应的关键瓶颈,影响全球经济。中断可能导致能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If diplomatic negotiations succeed, traffic normalization could accelerate, boosting probability. 如果外交谈判成功,交通正常化可能加速,从而提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating tensions or military actions could prolong disruptions, driving probability lower. 紧张局势升级或军事行动可能延长中断,导致概率下降。

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500
#17 · Score 143

Opendoor's Stock Faces Decline Opendoor股票面临下滑

30% -14.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.75 Week of April 20 2026?


Opendoor's probability dropped to 30% after recent headlines on the housing crisis and declining homeownership. CEO Kaz Nejatian's comments on affordability highlight ongoing market challenges. Opendoor的概率降至30%,因近期关于住房危机和房屋拥有率下降的报道。首席执行官Kaz Nejatian关于可负担性的问题强调了市场的持续挑战。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Housing crisis impacting homeownership rates
  • CEO's remarks on AI's housing affordability effects
  • Overall market volatility affecting stock predictions
  • 住房危机影响房屋拥有率
  • 首席执行官谈及AI对住房可负担性的影响
  • 整体市场波动影响股票预测
The decline in homeownership and rising affordability issues could significantly impact Opendoor's business model and stock performance. 房屋拥有率下降和可负担性问题可能会显著影响Opendoor的商业模式和股票表现。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If housing affordability improves, Opendoor's stock could rebound significantly. 如果住房可负担性改善,Opendoor的股票可能会显著反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued housing market decline may push Opendoor's stock below $4.75. 住房市场持续下滑可能会将Opendoor的股票压低至4.75美元以下。

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500
#18 · Score 135

Google's Stock Surge Driven by AI Buzz 谷歌股票因AI热潮上涨

50% +13.2%

Will Google reach $355 in April?


Google's probability of reaching $355 increased by 13.2% to 50%. This surge is largely driven by positive market reactions to AI advancements and competitor updates. 谷歌达到355美元的概率上升13.2%,达50%。这一上涨主要受益于市场对AI进展和竞争对手更新的积极反应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Positive AI developments at Google and competitors
  • Market optimism following Amazon's $25 billion investment
  • Anticipation of strong Q1 earnings from tech sector
  • 谷歌及竞争对手的积极AI发展
  • 亚马逊250亿美元投资后的市场乐观
  • 市场对科技行业Q1财报的期待
The tech sector's performance is crucial for overall market trends, influencing investor confidence and stock valuations. 科技行业的表现对整体市场趋势至关重要,影响投资者信心和股票估值。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Google announces strong AI advancements, investor confidence could push the stock higher. 如果谷歌宣布强劲的AI进展,投资者信心可能推动股票上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Negative earnings reports from tech companies could dampen investor enthusiasm and lower Google's stock price. 科技公司负面财报可能抑制投资者热情,导致谷歌股价下跌。

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500
#19 · Score 109

Gensyn FDV Prediction Surges Gensyn FDV预测上升

16% +10.5%

Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?


The probability of Gensyn's FDV exceeding $800M has risen to 16% after a 10.5% increase. This uptick is likely driven by positive market sentiment surrounding recent tech developments and IPO successes. Gensyn FDV超过8亿美元的概率上升至16%,涨幅为10.5%。这一上涨可能受到近期科技发展和IPO成功的积极市场情绪推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kailera Therapeutics sets IPO record at $625M
  • Increased interest in tech and crypto sectors
  • Speculation on Gensyn's potential market impact
  • Kailera Therapeutics创下6.25亿美元IPO记录
  • 科技和加密领域兴趣增加
  • 对Gensyn市场影响的投机
The rise in probability reflects growing investor confidence in emerging technologies and their financial potential, impacting future investments. 概率的上升反映出投资者对新兴科技及其财务潜力的信心,影响未来投资。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong demand for innovative projects could push Gensyn's valuation above $800M. 对创新项目的强烈需求可能推动Gensyn估值超过8亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Market volatility and regulatory concerns may hinder Gensyn's growth potential. 市场波动和监管担忧可能阻碍Gensyn的增长潜力。

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500
#20 · Score 109

Weinstein Sentencing Probability Drops 韦恩斯坦量刑概率下降

25% -10.6%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?


The probability of Weinstein receiving a 20-30 year sentence has decreased to 25%. This shift may be influenced by recent legal arguments suggesting a lighter sentence could be possible. 韦恩斯坦被判20至30年监禁的概率降至25%。这一变化可能受到近期法律辩论暗示轻判的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Legal arguments for reduced sentencing
  • Public opinion shifting towards leniency
  • Potential plea deals being discussed
  • 减刑的法律辩论
  • 公众舆论向宽容倾斜
  • 可能讨论的认罪协议
The outcome of Weinstein's sentencing could set precedents for future high-profile sexual assault cases, impacting public trust in the judicial system. 韦恩斯坦的量刑结果可能为未来高调性侵案件设定先例,影响公众对司法系统的信任。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If legal arguments for leniency gain traction, the probability of a lighter sentence increases. 如果减刑的法律辩论获得支持,轻判的概率将增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased media scrutiny and public outrage may lead to a harsher sentencing outcome. 媒体的关注和公众愤怒可能导致更严厉的量刑结果。

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500
#21 · Score 108

Tesla's Stock Faces Earnings Pressure 特斯拉股票面临盈利压力

8% -10.5%

Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 20 above $420?


Tesla's probability of finishing above $420 dropped to 8% after earnings report. Analysts suggest earnings may not influence stock movement significantly. 特斯拉在盈利报告后,股价超过420美元的概率降至8%。分析师认为,盈利可能不会显著影响股价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Earnings report showed slight beat but low impact
  • Market rally overshadowed by Tesla's performance
  • Analysts downplay earnings relevance to stock price
  • 盈利报告略超预期但影响有限
  • 市场反弹被特斯拉表现掩盖
  • 分析师淡化盈利对股价的相关性
The performance of Tesla's stock is critical for investor confidence and market trends, especially in the EV sector. 特斯拉股票的表现对投资者信心和市场趋势至关重要,尤其是在电动车行业。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Tesla's earnings exceed expectations and market sentiment shifts, the stock could rebound above $420. 如果特斯拉的盈利超出预期,市场情绪转变,股价可能反弹至420美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued skepticism about Tesla's growth and market conditions could push the stock further below $420. 对特斯拉增长的持续怀疑和市场状况可能导致股价进一步低于420美元。

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500
#22 · Score 105

Analyze Bitcoin's Price Movement 分析比特币价格走势

16% -10.0%

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?


Bitcoin's probability of hitting $60k first dropped to 16%, influenced by recent bearish market trends. A significant 10% decline in the last 24 hours reflects growing investor caution. 比特币首次达到$60k的概率降至16%,受到近期市场看跌趋势的影响。过去24小时内10%的下跌反映出投资者的谨慎情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Recent market sell-off in cryptocurrencies
  • Increased regulatory scrutiny on crypto exchanges
  • Negative macroeconomic indicators affecting investor confidence
  • 近期加密货币市场抛售
  • 对加密交易所的监管审查加剧
  • 影响投资者信心的负面宏观经济指标
Understanding these movements helps gauge market sentiment and potential future price actions for Bitcoin. It reflects broader trends in the cryptocurrency market. 理解这些变化有助于评估市场情绪和比特币未来价格走势。它反映了加密货币市场的更广泛趋势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If institutional investment increases, Bitcoin's price could surge, raising the probability of hitting $60k first. 如果机构投资增加,比特币价格可能飙升,提高首次达到$60k的概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued regulatory pressures could lead to further declines, making it less likely for Bitcoin to reach $60k soon. 持续的监管压力可能导致进一步下跌,使比特币短期内达到$60k的可能性降低。

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500
#23 · Score 96

Ceasefire Probability Drops Sharply 停火概率大幅下降

22% -9.0%

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?


The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire extension has decreased to 22% following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks has intensified after Trump's recent extension announcement. 由于霍尔木兹海峡的船只遭到攻击,美国与伊朗的停火延长概率降至22%。特朗普最近的延长声明后,关于美伊谈判的不确定性加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Trump extends ceasefire amid stalled talks
  • Iran displays ballistic missile at rally
  • 霍尔木兹海峡发生船只攻击
  • 特朗普在谈判停滞时延长停火
  • 伊朗在集会上展示弹道导弹
The situation impacts regional stability and international relations, affecting global oil markets and security dynamics. 这一局势影响地区稳定和国际关系,进而影响全球石油市场和安全动态。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased diplomatic efforts could lead to a more stable ceasefire agreement. 增加的外交努力可能促成更稳定的停火协议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating military tensions and attacks could derail any potential for a ceasefire extension. 不断升级的军事紧张局势和攻击可能破坏停火延长的任何潜力。

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500
#24 · Score 94

Solana's April $100 Probability Drops Solana四月$100概率下降

8% -9.0%

Will Solana reach $100 in April?


Current probability of Solana reaching $100 is at 8%, down 9% in 24 hours. This decline follows a lack of bullish news and recent market corrections in cryptocurrencies. Solana达到$100的概率目前为8%,24小时下降9%。这一下降是由于缺乏积极新闻和近期加密货币市场修正。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Absence of positive news catalysts
  • Recent cryptocurrency market corrections
  • Investor profit-taking activities
  • 缺乏积极新闻催化剂
  • 近期加密市场修正
  • 投资者获利了结活动
The probability shift reflects broader market trends and investor sentiment towards Solana's future performance. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for potential investors. 概率变化反映了更广泛的市场趋势和投资者对Solana未来表现的情绪。理解这些动态对潜在投资者至关重要。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased institutional investment could drive Solana's price up significantly. 机构投资的增加可能会显著推动Solana价格上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued bearish trends in the crypto market may further depress Solana's price. 加密市场持续的熊市趋势可能进一步压低Solana价格。

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500
#25 · Score 91

Trump's Blockade Decision Stays Firm 特朗普的封锁决定保持不变

5% -8.5%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?


Current probability dropped to 5% as Trump refuses to lift the blockade. Key drivers include stalled negotiations and Trump's insistence on an Iran deal. 当前概率降至5%,特朗普拒绝解除封锁。核心驱动因素包括谈判停滞和特朗普对伊朗协议的坚持。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump's refusal to lift blockade until Iran deal is reached
  • Iran's absence from peace talks exacerbates tensions
  • Trump claims blockade costs Iran $500 million daily
  • 特朗普拒绝在达成伊朗协议前解除封锁
  • 伊朗缺席和平谈判加剧紧张局势
  • 特朗普称封锁每天让伊朗损失5亿美元
The blockade's status affects global oil markets and geopolitical stability in the region. A resolution could impact U.S.-Iran relations significantly. 封锁状态影响全球石油市场和该地区的地缘政治稳定。解决方案可能对美伊关系产生重大影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If negotiations resume and progress is made, the blockade could be lifted, increasing the probability. 如果谈判恢复并取得进展,封锁可能会解除,从而提高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued stalemate in talks and Trump's firm stance suggest the blockade will remain, lowering the probability. 谈判持续僵局和特朗普的坚定立场表明封锁将继续,降低概率。

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500
#26 · Score 89

Tesla's Stock Faces Earnings Pressure 特斯拉股票面临盈利压力

42% -8.5%

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?


Tesla's probability of closing above $390 dropped to 42% after recent earnings previews suggested lackluster growth. Key headlines indicated that earnings may not significantly impact stock movement. 特斯拉的收盘概率降至42%,因近期盈利预告显示增长乏力。关键头条表明,盈利可能不会显著影响股票走势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Earnings preview suggests growth story is fading
  • Recent earnings beat may not excite investors
  • Market sentiment shifts away from earnings impact
  • 盈利预告显示增长故事正在消退
  • 近期盈利超预期未能激励投资者
  • 市场情绪转向不再依赖盈利影响
The performance of Tesla's stock is crucial for investor confidence and market trends in the EV sector. 特斯拉股票表现对投资者信心和电动车行业市场趋势至关重要。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If Tesla demonstrates strong future guidance, investor confidence could rebound, raising the probability. 如果特斯拉展现出强劲的未来指引,投资者信心可能回升,概率上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued concerns over growth and market dynamics could lead to further declines in stock price. 对增长和市场动态的持续担忧可能导致股票价格进一步下跌。

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500
#27 · Score 85

MegaETH Market Cap Surges MegaETH市值激增

34% +8.0%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?


The probability of MegaETH exceeding $2B market cap rose to 34%, driven by a recent 8% increase. This shift follows positive news in the crypto sector, particularly around AlphaPepe's ecosystem expansion. MegaETH超过20亿美元市值的概率上升至34%,推动因素为最近8%的增长。此变化源于加密行业的积极新闻,尤其是AlphaPepe生态系统的扩展。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AlphaPepe's ecosystem expansion gains traction
  • Recent bullish trends in crypto market
  • Increased investor interest in new projects
  • AlphaPepe生态系统扩展获得关注
  • 加密市场近期的看涨趋势
  • 投资者对新项目的兴趣增加
A successful launch could signal renewed investor confidence in crypto projects, impacting future investments. 成功的启动可能会重燃投资者对加密项目的信心,影响未来投资。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If MegaETH attracts significant early adopters, its market cap could exceed $2B rapidly. 如果MegaETH吸引大量早期用户,其市值可能迅速超过20亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Negative macroeconomic factors or regulatory concerns could deter investment, lowering the probability. 负面的宏观经济因素或监管担忧可能会阻碍投资,降低概率。

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500
#28 · Score 80

Analyze MegaETH Token Launch Probability 分析MegaETH代币发布概率

9% -7.5%

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?


The probability of MegaETH launching a token has dropped to 9%, down 7.5% in 24 hours. This decline may be attributed to a lack of recent developments or announcements regarding the project. MegaETH发布代币的概率降至9%,24小时内下降7.5%。这一下降可能与项目缺乏近期进展或公告有关。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No recent updates from MegaETH team
  • Market skepticism about crypto projects
  • General decline in crypto market confidence
  • MegaETH团队没有最新更新
  • 市场对加密项目的怀疑
  • 加密市场信心普遍下降
The token launch is crucial for MegaETH's future, impacting investor interest and market positioning. A successful launch could revitalize the project. 代币发布对MegaETH的未来至关重要,影响投资者兴趣和市场定位。成功发布可能会重新激活该项目。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If MegaETH announces partnerships or development milestones, the probability could rise significantly. 如果MegaETH宣布合作或开发里程碑,概率可能会显著上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued inactivity or negative market trends could further decrease the likelihood of a token launch. 持续的不活跃或负面市场趋势可能进一步降低代币发布的可能性。

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500
#29 · Score 75

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Purchase Sparks Confidence MicroStrategy的比特币购买提升信心

95% +7.0%

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?


MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion has increased market confidence, driving the probability of further purchases to 95%. This surge follows Bitcoin's price nearing $80k and significant ETF inflows. MicroStrategy最近以25.4亿美元购买34,164 BTC,提升了市场信心,使进一步购买的概率升至95%。这一激增发生在比特币价格接近8万美元和ETF资金流入显著增加之后。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • MicroStrategy buys 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion
  • Bitcoin price approaches $80k
  • Strong ETF inflows signal market optimism
  • MicroStrategy以25.4亿美元购买34,164 BTC
  • 比特币价格接近8万美元
  • 强劲的ETF资金流入显示市场乐观
This trend indicates institutional confidence in Bitcoin, potentially leading to more significant market movements and adoption. 这一趋势表明机构对比特币的信心,可能导致更大规模的市场波动和采用。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If MicroStrategy continues its aggressive buying strategy, it could lead to a higher probability of further purchases. 如果MicroStrategy继续其积极的购买策略,可能会提高进一步购买的概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden market correction or regulatory changes could dampen MicroStrategy's purchasing plans. 市场突然修正或监管变化可能会抑制MicroStrategy的购买计划。

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500
#30 · Score 73

Bitcoin Surges Towards $80,000 比特币逼近$80,000

94% +6.8%

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?


Bitcoin's probability of reaching $80,000 has surged to 94% due to significant ETF inflows and bullish market sentiment. Notably, BlackRock's $871M investment and positive reports from CNBC have fueled optimism. 比特币达到$80,000的概率已升至94%,主要受到ETF资金流入和市场乐观情绪的推动。尤其是黑石公司8.71亿美元的投资和CNBC的积极报道,增强了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BlackRock invests $871M in Bitcoin
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs see $1.9B inflows
  • CNBC reports Bitcoin nearing $80k
  • 黑石公司投资8.71亿美元比特币
  • 现货比特币ETF流入19亿美元
  • CNBC报道比特币接近$80k
These developments indicate strong institutional interest and market confidence, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher. 这些发展表明机构投资者的强烈兴趣和市场信心,可能推动比特币价格上涨。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If institutional investments continue, Bitcoin could easily surpass $80,000 by 2026. 如果机构投资持续,比特币在2026年轻松超过$80,000。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory concerns or a market downturn could significantly hinder Bitcoin's price growth. 监管担忧或市场下行可能严重阻碍比特币价格增长。

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500
#31 · Score 26

Assessing Q1 2026 GDP Growth 评估2026年第一季度GDP增长

16% -2.2%

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?


The probability of GDP growth between 2.5% and 3.0% has decreased to 16%. This decline follows recent economic data indicating slower-than-expected job growth and consumer spending. GDP增长在2.5%到3.0%之间的概率降至16%。这一下降是由于最近经济数据表明就业增长和消费支出低于预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US job growth fell below expectations last month
  • Consumer spending showed signs of weakening
  • Inflation remains persistently high
  • 美国上月就业增长低于预期
  • 消费支出出现疲软迹象
  • 通货膨胀持续高企
These factors suggest a potential slowdown in economic momentum, impacting future GDP forecasts. Understanding GDP growth is crucial for investment and policy decisions. 这些因素表明经济动能可能减弱,影响未来GDP预测。了解GDP增长对投资和政策决策至关重要。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 If inflation decreases and consumer confidence rises, GDP growth could exceed expectations. 如果通胀下降且消费者信心上升,GDP增长可能超出预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued high inflation and rising interest rates may further dampen economic growth. 持续高通胀和利率上升可能进一步抑制经济增长。

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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。