AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 24, 2026 20:23 UTC
#1 · Score 828

Robinhood's Price Plunge Certainty 罗宾汉股价暴跌成定局

100% +82.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $97.50 Week of July 20 2026?


Robinhood's stock is now considered 100% likely to hit a low of $97.50 by July 2026. This surge in probability is driven by market concerns over its new WHOOP partnership's cost and escalating global economic risks. 罗宾汉股价被认为在2026年7月前100%会触及97.50美元的低点。这主要源于市场对其新WHOOP合作成本的担忧以及全球经济风险的加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Robinhood's costly WHOOP member benefit
  • Escalating Iran War and bond market warnings
  • Market interprets partnership as desperation
  • 罗宾汉昂贵的WHOOP会员福利
  • 伊朗战争升级及债市预警
  • 市场解读合作为无奈之举
This indicates significant investor skepticism about Robinhood's future profitability and user growth strategy amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. 这表明投资者对罗宾汉未来盈利能力和用户增长策略在宏观经济挑战下的严重疑虑。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Robinhood's expensive WHOOP deal signals deep user retention issues amid a worsening global economy, ensuring a price drop. 罗宾汉昂贵的WHOOP合作预示用户留存问题,全球经济下行加剧,股价下跌已成必然。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The WHOOP partnership successfully boosts user engagement and revenue, while global economic fears subside, preventing a significant HOOD price drop. WHOOP合作成功提升用户参与度和收入,宏观经济担忧缓解,阻止HOOD触及低点。

Loading…
500
#2 · Score 609

SPX Plunges on Mideast, Tech Rout 标普因中东冲突和科技股暴跌

0% -60.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 24?


The probability of the S&P 500 opening up on July 24 dropped to 0% following a significant market sell-off on Thursday, July 23, driven by geopolitical tensions and anticipation of major tech earnings. Increased fighting in the Middle East pushed Brent oil prices higher, contributing to investor concerns. 标普500指数7月24日开盘上涨的概率降至0%,此前7月23日市场大幅抛售,主要受地缘政治紧张局势和大型科技公司财报预期的影响。中东地区冲突加剧推高布伦特原油价格,加剧了投资者的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 selling off (CNBC)
  • Sharp drops for US stock indexes on July 23
  • Brent oil price surge due to Mideast conflict
  • Traders brace for Alphabet, Tesla results
  • 标普500指数持续抛售
  • 7月23日美股主要指数大跌
  • 中东冲突推高布伦特油价
  • 市场关注Alphabet、特斯拉财报
This market movement reflects heightened investor anxiety over geopolitical instability and its economic impact, alongside concerns about the profitability of major technology companies. It signals potential broader market weakness. 此次市场波动反映了投资者对地缘政治不稳定及其经济影响的担忧,以及对主要科技公司盈利能力的疑虑。这预示着市场可能面临更广泛的疲软。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Wall Street futures are rising after the tech rout, suggesting a potential rebound or short covering could lead to an upward open. 科技股暴跌后华尔街期货上涨,预示着潜在反弹或空头回补可能导致开盘走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The S&P 500 is actively selling off, with major indexes experiencing sharp drops on Thursday, indicating continued downward pressure. 标普500指数正积极抛售,主要指数周四大幅下跌,表明下行压力持续。

Loading…
500
#3 · Score 518

Tesla Plunges Post-Earnings Miss 特斯拉财报不及预期股价暴跌

2% -51.4%

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 24?


The probability of Tesla stock being up on July 24th plummeted by 51.4% to 2% following its Q2 earnings report. This sharp decline was primarily driven by Tesla missing its EPS consensus, reporting $0.33 against an expected $0.50. 特斯拉股票在7月24日上涨的概率暴跌51.4%至2%,主要原因是其第二季度财报不及预期。特斯拉公布的每股收益为0.33美元,远低于市场普遍预期的0.50美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q2 EPS of $0.33 missed $0.50 consensus.
  • TSLA stock slid 8-10% post-earnings.
  • Analysts cut price targets on TSLA.
  • 第二季度每股收益0.33美元低于预期。
  • 财报后股价立即下跌8-10%。
  • 分析师下调特斯拉目标价。
Tesla's performance is a bellwether for the EV sector and broader tech market, influencing investor sentiment and future growth expectations for high-valuation companies. 特斯拉的业绩是电动汽车行业和更广泛科技市场的风向标,影响投资者情绪及高估值公司的未来增长预期。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite the miss, record deliveries and increasing EV market share could signal future revenue growth and profitability. 尽管业绩不佳,创纪录的交付量和不断增长的电动汽车市场份额预示未来营收增长潜力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The significant earnings miss and high valuation multiples suggest further downside risk as analysts re-evaluate growth prospects. 严重的盈利不及预期和高估值倍数表明,随着分析师重新评估增长前景,股价存在进一步下跌风险。

Loading…
500
#4 · Score 479

Oil Daily Drop Halves Up Probability 油价日跌,上涨概率骤降

3% -47.4%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?


The probability of WTI crude oil being up on July 24 plummeted by 47.4% to 3%. This sharp decline was driven by oil prices falling approximately 3% on July 24, despite expectations of weekly gains from Middle East tensions. WTI原油在7月24日上涨的概率暴跌47.4%至3%。尽管中东局势紧张预期周涨,但当日油价实际下跌约3%是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI crude oil prices fell ~3% on July 24.
  • Daily price drop contradicted 'Up' outcome.
  • Geopolitical tensions failed to prevent daily decline.
  • 7月24日WTI原油价格下跌约3%。
  • 当日价格下跌与“上涨”预测相悖。
  • 地缘政治紧张未能阻止日内跌幅。
Daily oil price movements reflect immediate supply/demand dynamics and investor reactions to news, impacting global energy costs and inflation. This specific drop shows daily volatility can override broader weekly trends. 原油日价格波动反映了即时供需动态及投资者对新闻的反应,影响全球能源成本和通胀。此次下跌表明日内波动可超越周度趋势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating Red Sea attacks and potential Trump-Iran conflict could trigger sudden supply disruptions, pushing prices higher. 红海袭击升级和潜在美伊冲突可能引发供应中断,推动油价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Profit-taking after weekly gains and concerns over global demand could continue to weigh on daily oil prices. 周度上涨后的获利了结以及对全球需求的担忧可能继续打压油价。

Loading…
500
#5 · Score 464

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1PM ET

96% +46.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1PM ET


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#6 · Score 454

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

100% +45.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#7 · Score 454

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 24? Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 24?

90% +45.0%

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#8 · Score 409

Trump-Netanyahu Meeting Probability Soars 特朗普内塔尼亚胡会面概率飙升

92% +40.4%

Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?


The probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting in July 2026 surged by over 40% to 92%, driven by recent announcements of their imminent meeting in Washington next week. This signals market confidence in their continued direct engagement, likely assuming a Trump presidency. 特朗普与内塔尼亚胡在2026年7月会面的概率飙升超过40%至92%,主要受近期宣布两人下周将在华盛顿会面的消息推动。这表明市场对其持续直接接触的信心,可能基于特朗普将再次当选总统的假设。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington next week.
  • Visit marks Netanyahu's seventh White House meeting.
  • Strong historical relationship between the two leaders.
  • 内塔尼亚胡下周将在华盛顿会见特朗普。
  • 此次访问是内塔尼亚胡第七次白宫会晤。
  • 两位领导人之间存在牢固的历史关系。
The close relationship between Trump and Netanyahu significantly impacts US-Israel foreign policy and regional stability, particularly concerning Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 特朗普和内塔尼亚胡的密切关系对美以外交政策和地区稳定,特别是伊朗问题和巴以冲突,具有重要影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump's likely re-election in 2024 ensures continued direct engagement and frequent meetings with Netanyahu through 2026. 特朗普若赢得2024年大选,将确保他与内塔尼亚胡在2026年继续保持直接和频繁的会面。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Trump losing the 2024 election or significant political shifts in either country would drastically reduce meeting likelihood. 特朗普若输掉2024年大选,或两国政治发生重大变化,将大幅降低会面可能性。

Loading…
500
#9 · Score 379

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 24? Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 24?

87% +37.5%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#10 · Score 375

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 24? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 24?

93% +37.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#11 · Score 370

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?

90% +36.5%

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#12 · Score 360

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?

92% +35.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#13 · Score 359

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?

52% -35.5%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#14 · Score 327

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

47% -32.1%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#15 · Score 324

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24?

82% +32.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#16 · Score 319

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 24? Meta (META) Up or Down on July 24?

18% -31.5%

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#17 · Score 299

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 24? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 24?

96% +29.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#18 · Score 279

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 24? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 24?

78% +27.5%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#19 · Score 278

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?

14% -27.5%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#20 · Score 218

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of July 20 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of July 20 2026?

4% -21.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of July 20 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#21 · Score 218

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 20 above $315? Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 20 above $315?

95% +21.5%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 20 above $315?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#22 · Score 209

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on July 24? Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on July 24?

94% +20.5%

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#23 · Score 198

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of July 20 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of July 20 2026?

100% +19.4%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of July 20 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#24 · Score 194

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 24? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 24?

31% -19.0%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#25 · Score 188

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on July 24? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on July 24?

64% +18.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on July 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#26 · Score 179

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31,

44% -17.5%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 168

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

86% +16.5%

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 153

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meet Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meet

8% -14.9%

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 131

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

51% +12.8%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 121

SpaceX Stock Dips on Test Jitters SpaceX股价因测试承压

52% -11.7%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?


The probability of SpaceX closing above $110 by July end dropped 11.7% to 52%, primarily driven by investor anxiety ahead of tonight's critical Starship test and concerns over a massive upcoming lock-up expiry. Multiple headlines highlighted the stock's significant decline and the importance of the July 16th Starship launch attempt. SpaceX股价在7月底收盘高于110美元的概率下降11.7%至52%,主要受今晚关键星舰测试前的投资者焦虑和即将到来的巨额解禁担忧驱动。多篇报道强调了股价的大幅下跌以及7月16日星舰发射尝试的重要性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Starship test tonight (July 16) uncertainty
  • SpaceX stock down 48% from peak
  • $116B lock-up expiry ahead
  • 今晚(7月16日)星舰测试不确定性
  • SpaceX股价较峰值下跌48%
  • 1160亿美元股票即将解禁
The Starship test is crucial for SpaceX's future valuation and operational milestones, impacting investor confidence and market perception of its long-term growth prospects. 星舰测试对SpaceX的未来估值和运营里程碑至关重要,将影响投资者信心及其长期增长的市场看法。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A successful Starship launch tonight could ignite a significant short squeeze, pushing SPCX above $110. 今晚星舰发射成功可能引发大规模逼空,推动SPCX股价突破110美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A failed Starship test or heavy selling from the $116B lock-up could easily keep SPCX below $110. 星舰测试失败或1160亿美元解禁抛售可能使SPCX股价远低于110美元。

Loading…
500
#31 · Score 19

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

52% +1.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。