AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 20, 2026 20:59 UTC
#1 · Score 757

Hormuz Transits Rise, Fewer Than 20 Unlikely 霍尔木兹通航增,低于20艘可能性小

2% -75.2%

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?


The probability of fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to 2%, reflecting increased shipping activity. This shift is driven by reports of a slight increase in transits and the successful passage of Chinese and Korean VLCCs, as Iran claims to boost traffic. 霍尔木兹海峡通航船只少于20艘的可能性已降至2%,反映出航运活动增加。这一转变主要受ICIS报道的通航量略有增加以及中国和韩国VLCC成功通过海峡的驱动,伊朗也声称增加交通量。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • ICIS reported Strait of Hormuz transits increase slightly
  • Chinese and Korean VLCCs cleared Hormuz
  • Two Chinese VLCCs crossed the Strait of Hormuz
  • ICIS报告称霍尔木兹通航量略增
  • 中韩VLCC油轮成功通过霍尔木兹
  • 两艘中国VLCC穿越霍尔木兹海峡
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, and its traffic levels are a key indicator of regional stability and global energy supply security. Reduced transits could significantly impact oil prices and international trade. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉,其通航量是衡量地区稳定和全球能源供应安全的重要指标。通航量减少将严重影响油价和国际贸易。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed geopolitical tensions or specific Iranian actions could quickly halt shipping, making fewer than 20 transits likely. 地缘政治紧张局势加剧或伊朗采取具体行动,可能迅速中断航运,导致通航船只少于20艘。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued diplomatic efforts and the economic necessity for Iran to maintain some traffic will ensure more than 20 ships transit. 持续的外交努力和伊朗维持部分交通的经济需求,将确保通航船只超过20艘。

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500
#2 · Score 504

Bitcoin Crash Fears Drive Probability to Zero 比特币暴跌恐慌,上涨概率归零

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET


The probability of Bitcoin being up by May 20, 12 PM ET plummeted from 50% to 0%, driven by widespread fears of a massive price crash. Forbes' 'Game Over' article warned of a crisis rivaling 2008, signaling extreme bearish sentiment. 比特币在5月20日美国东部时间中午上涨的概率从50%骤降至0%,主要原因是市场普遍担忧价格将大幅崩盘。福布斯一篇题为“游戏结束”的文章警告称,危机可能堪比2008年。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes warns of 'Massive Price Crash'
  • Fears of 'Crisis To Rival 2008' grow
  • CNBC notes current 'slump' in prices
  • 福布斯警告“大规模价格崩盘”
  • 对“堪比2008年危机”的担忧加剧
  • CNBC提及当前比特币价格“低迷”
This dramatic shift reflects a significant loss of investor confidence in Bitcoin's short-term prospects, potentially signaling broader market instability. Such dire predictions can trigger widespread panic selling. 这一剧烈变化反映出投资者对短期比特币前景的信心严重丧失,可能预示着更广泛的市场不稳定。如此悲观的预测可能引发大规模恐慌性抛售。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 ZOOMEX's 'Pizza Week' and Hyperscale Data's Bitcoin treasury show ongoing adoption and institutional interest, offering long-term support. ZOOMEX的“披萨周”活动及Hyperscale Data持有比特币,显示持续采用和机构兴趣,提供长期支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Forbes' 'Game Over' article explicitly predicts a 'Massive Price Crash' and a 'Crisis To Rival 2008', creating overwhelming selling pressure. 福布斯“游戏结束”文章明确预测“大规模价格崩盘”和“堪比2008年危机”,造成巨大抛售压力。

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500
#3 · Score 504

Bitcoin Rebound Confirmed 比特币反弹确认

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET


Bitcoin's prediction market shows 100% probability of being up by May 20, 1PM ET, driven by strong 'buy the dip' sentiment and technical analysis suggesting a rebound after recent price slumps. 比特币预测市场显示,截至5月20日下午1点(美国东部时间),比特币上涨概率为100%,主要受强烈的“逢低买入”情绪和技术分析驱动,预示近期下跌后将反弹。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CNBC's Katie Stockton discusses 'buy the dip.'
  • Technical analysis indicates short-term rebound.
  • Market interprets 'Game Over' as capitulation.
  • CNBC凯蒂·斯托克顿讨论“逢低买入”。
  • 技术分析显示短期内将反弹。
  • 市场将“游戏结束”解读为投降。
This reflects extreme confidence in a short-term recovery for Bitcoin despite broader market uncertainties and bearish headlines. It could signal a significant shift in crypto investor sentiment. 这反映了尽管市场存在不确定性和看跌头条,但市场对短期内比特币复苏的极度信心。这可能预示着加密投资者情绪的重大转变。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelming 'buy the dip' sentiment and technical indicators, as discussed by Katie Stockton, signal a confirmed short-term rebound. 凯蒂·斯托克顿讨论的强烈“逢低买入”情绪和技术指标,预示短期反弹已确认。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising dollar, high Treasury yields, and 'Game Over' crash fears (Forbes) create strong headwinds for Bitcoin. 美元走强、国债收益率上升以及“游戏结束”的崩盘担忧(福布斯)对比特币构成强大阻力。

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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Crash Certainty Soars 比特币暴跌确定性飙升

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET


The probability for Bitcoin to decline by May 20, 6AM ET, surged to 100% as fears of a significant crash intensified. Forbes' 'Game Over' headline, predicting a 'massive price crash' akin to 2008, was a key driver. 比特币在5月20日早上6点前下跌的概率飙升至100%,因市场对大幅崩盘的担忧加剧。福布斯“游戏结束”的头条,预测堪比2008年的“大规模价格暴跌”,是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes' 'Game Over' crash warning
  • Dollar's six-week high on rate bets
  • Fears of crisis rivaling 2008
  • 福布斯“游戏结束”崩盘警告
  • 美元因加息预期创六周新高
  • 对堪比2008年危机的担忧
This extreme certainty reflects deep market fear, potentially signaling a broader risk-off shift in crypto. It could impact investor confidence across digital assets. 这种极高的确定性反映了市场深层恐惧,可能预示着加密货币领域更广泛的避险情绪。它可能影响整个数字资产的投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The dire 'Game Over' warning from Forbes, coupled with a surging dollar, strongly validates the market's 100% certainty for Bitcoin's decline. 福布斯“游戏结束”的严峻警告,加上美元飙升,有力地证实了市场对比特币下跌的100%确定性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 CNBC's 'buy the dip' discussion suggests potential short-term recovery, challenging the certainty of a sustained decline. CNBC“逢低买入”的讨论暗示短期反弹可能,挑战了持续下跌的确定性。

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500
#5 · Score 502

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?

100% +49.7%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#6 · Score 497

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?

1% -49.2%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#7 · Score 489

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20?

4% -48.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#8 · Score 484

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

24% -48.0%

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#9 · Score 483

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 20? Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 20?

98% +47.9%

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#10 · Score 469

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?

99% +46.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#11 · Score 450

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?

100% +44.5%

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#12 · Score 395

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20?

96% +39.1%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#13 · Score 394

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 20? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 20?

93% +39.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#14 · Score 364

SPX Confirmed Up on May 20 Open 标普500指数5月20日高开

100% +35.9%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20?


The S&P 500 is confirmed to open higher on May 20, reaching 100% probability. This surge is primarily driven by falling oil prices and easing global bond selloff, reversing earlier cautious sentiment. 标普500指数确认于5月20日高开,预测概率达100%。此涨势主要受油价下跌及全球债券抛售压力缓解驱动,扭转了此前谨慎情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Oil prices dropped significantly.
  • Global bond selloff eased.
  • Positive anticipation for Nvidia earnings.
  • 油价显著下跌。
  • 全球债券抛售压力缓解。
  • 市场对英伟达财报预期乐观。
This movement signals a shift in investor sentiment, moving past recent tech sector concerns and highlighting the influence of macroeconomic factors. 此次走势表明投资者情绪已摆脱近期科技板块担忧,并凸显宏观经济因素的影响力。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued decline in oil prices and stable bond markets will sustain SPX's upward momentum. 油价持续下跌和债券市场稳定将支撑标普500指数上涨势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Potential post-Nvidia earnings volatility or renewed tech sector weakness could reverse SPX gains. 英伟达财报后潜在波动或科技板块再度疲软可能逆转标普500涨幅。

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500
#15 · Score 335

Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%?

22% -33.1%

Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#16 · Score 314

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20?

91% +31.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#17 · Score 279

Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?

92% +27.5%

Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#18 · Score 253

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

3% -24.8%

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#19 · Score 213

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 20? Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 20?

99% +20.9%

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#20 · Score 209

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 20? Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 20?

70% +20.5%

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#21 · Score 199

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

46% +19.5%

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#22 · Score 194

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?

28% -19.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#23 · Score 194

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?

40% -19.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#24 · Score 190

Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

20% -18.5%

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#25 · Score 184

Airbnb Expands, Low Price Less Likely 爱彼迎业务扩张,低价可能性降低

13% -18.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?


The probability of Airbnb hitting a $124 low in May decreased by 18% to 13%, primarily driven by the company's strategic expansion into rental cars. This move signals new revenue streams and increased market share, bolstering investor confidence. 爱彼迎在五月触及124美元低点的可能性下降18%至13%,主要原因是公司战略性地拓展了租车业务。此举预示着新的收入来源和市场份额增长,提振了投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Airbnb launches rental car services.
  • Strategic move to diversify revenue.
  • Expansion into new travel segments.
  • 爱彼迎推出租车服务。
  • 战略性举措以实现营收多元化。
  • 拓展进入新的旅游细分市场。
Airbnb's diversification into rental cars directly challenges competitors like Expedia and Booking, potentially reshaping the online travel agency landscape and its future revenue potential. 爱彼迎进军租车市场直接挑战Expedia和Booking等竞争对手,可能重塑在线旅游代理格局及其未来营收潜力。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Airbnb's new rental car offering significantly expands its addressable market and revenue potential, making a $124 low less probable. 爱彼迎新增租车服务显著扩大了其市场和营收潜力,使得股价跌至124美元的可能性降低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader economic slowdowns or intense competition in the rental car market could still pressure ABNB's stock towards $124. 宏观经济放缓或租车市场激烈竞争仍可能推动爱彼迎股价跌向124美元。

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500
#26 · Score 184

Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading

92% +18.0%

Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 178

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?

39% -17.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 164

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of May 18 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of May 18 2026?

3% -16.1%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of May 18 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 163

Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026?

16% -16.0%

Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 159

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May?

18% -15.5%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 53

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026

74% -5.0%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。