AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 16, 2026 20:00 UTC
#1 · Score 823

Palantir's AI Model Drives Price Surge Palantir AI模式推动股价飙升

100% +82.0%

Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $132-$134 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?

The prediction market has assigned a 100% probability for Palantir (PLTR) to close at $132-$134 by May 15, reflecting an 82.0% increase. This surge is primarily driven by Palantir's declaration that "SaaS is dead," signaling a revolutionary, high-value AI-centric business model. 预测市场对Palantir (PLTR) 在5月15日前收盘价将达到$132-$134的概率升至100%，24小时内上涨82.0%。这一飙升主要源于Palantir宣称“SaaS已死”，预示其革命性的高价值AI商业模式。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Palantir strategist Danny Lukus declared "SaaS is dead."
  • Market interprets Palantir's new approach as highly disruptive.
  • Investors foresee unprecedented revenue growth from Palantir's AI platforms.
  • Palantir战略家Danny Lukus宣称“SaaS已死”。
  • 市场将Palantir新方法解读为颠覆性。
  • 投资者预见Palantir AI平台将带来空前营收增长。
This indicates a significant shift in how the market values Palantir's unique AI and data integration capabilities, potentially setting a new benchmark for enterprise software valuation. 这表明市场对Palantir独特AI和数据整合能力的估值发生重大转变，可能为企业软件估值树立新标杆。
Vol 24h: $1,265 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Palantir's "SaaS is dead" declaration signals a disruptive, highly profitable AI-centric business model, justifying a massive re-rating to $132-$134. Palantir“SaaS已死”宣言预示颠覆性高利润AI商业模式，支撑股价重估至$132-$134。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Retail traders are trimming PLTR holdings for AI chip stocks, and broader market risks could prevent the $132-$134 target. 散户转向AI芯片股，且大盘风险可能阻碍PLTR达到$132-$134目标。
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500
#2 · Score 550

Bitcoin Price Dips, Up Probability Zeroes 比特币下跌，上涨概率归零

0% -54.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 16 plummeted to 0% following a reported 2% price drop to $79,370.24. This decline occurred amidst broader stock market fears driven by rising oil prices, as reported by WSJ. 比特币5月16日上涨的概率暴跌至0%，此前据《华尔街日报》报道，比特币价格已下跌2%至79,370.24美元。此次下跌发生在全球股市因油价担忧而普遍下跌之际。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price fell 2% to $79,370.24.
  • Dow Jones dropped 400 points on oil fears.
  • Nasdaq also declined by 0.84%.
  • 比特币价格下跌2%至$79,370.24。
  • 道琼斯指数因油价担忧下跌400点。
  • 纳斯达克指数也下跌0.84%。
This movement reflects immediate market reactions to macroeconomic factors and risk-off sentiment, potentially signaling short-term volatility for cryptocurrencies. 这一走势反映了市场对宏观经济因素和避险情绪的即时反应，可能预示着加密货币短期内的波动性。
Vol 24h: $351,874 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite current dip, Bitcoin's recent surge to $82,000 and advancing Clarity Act could signal quick recovery. 尽管当前下跌，比特币近期曾触及82,000美元，且《清晰法案》推进，预示可能快速反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market downturn from oil fears and Bitcoin's 2% drop suggest continued downward pressure. 油价担忧引发的股市普遍下跌及比特币2%的跌幅，预示下行压力持续。
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500
#3 · Score 529

Ethereum Up Probability Crashes to Zero 以太坊上涨概率跌至零

0% -52.4%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 16?

The probability of Ethereum being up on May 16th plummeted to 0%, reflecting a 52.4% drop in 24 hours. This sharp decline was primarily driven by SharpLink's criticism of Ethereum companies for diverging from Michael Saylor's crypto asset management model. 5月16日以太坊上涨的概率已降至0%，24小时内暴跌52.4%。这一下跌主要源于SharpLink批评以太坊公司偏离了Michael Saylor的加密资产管理模式。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SharpLink criticizes Ethereum firms' asset management
  • Ethereum companies diverge from Saylor's BTC model
  • Concerns over institutional conviction in ETH
  • SharpLink批评以太坊资产管理
  • 以太坊公司偏离Saylor比特币模式
  • 机构对以太坊信心受损
This shift indicates a significant loss of confidence in Ethereum's short-term price performance, potentially signaling broader institutional re-evaluation of crypto asset strategies beyond Bitcoin. 这一转变表明市场对以太坊短期价格表现信心大失，可能预示着机构对加密资产策略的重新评估，超越了比特币。
Vol 24h: $85,937 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Ethereum companies' new strategies may offer sustainable long-term growth despite current criticism. 尽管面临批评，以太坊公司的新策略或能带来长期可持续增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 SharpLink's criticism signals weakening institutional conviction and increased selling pressure for Ethereum. SharpLink的批评预示着机构信心的减弱，增加了以太坊的卖压。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $49,519 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $43,187 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 490

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET

2% -48.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $41,520 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 450

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?

27% -44.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $34,298 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 449

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

75% +44.5%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $14,986 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 242

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $135? Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $135?

0% -23.9%

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $135?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $994 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 217

Weinstein Sentence Range Dives 韦恩斯坦刑期预测暴跌

3% -21.3%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

The probability for Harvey Weinstein's sentence to be between 20 and 30 years plummeted to 3%, driven by a market re-evaluation of his combined New York and Los Angeles sentences. Traders likely recognized his total effective time served will exceed this range. 哈维·韦恩斯坦刑期在20至30年间的可能性骤降至3%，主要由于市场重新评估其纽约和洛杉矶两地判决的合计刑期。交易者普遍认为其总服刑时间将超出此范围。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Re-evaluation of combined sentences (NY 23 years + LA 16 years = 39 years).
  • Market consensus that total effective sentence will exceed 30 years.
  • Absence of new trials expected to yield a sentence in this range.
  • 重新评估合计刑期（纽约23年+洛杉矶16年=39年）。
  • 市场共识认为总有效刑期将超过30年。
  • 预期无新审判会产生此范围内的刑期。
This market highlights how prediction markets adjust to complex legal realities, reflecting collective understanding of high-profile criminal justice outcomes. 该市场反映了预测市场如何根据复杂的法律现实进行调整，体现了公众对高知名度刑事司法结果的集体理解。
Vol 24h: $10,856 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A successful appeal significantly reducing his combined sentences could bring the total effective time into the 20-30 year range. 若上诉成功大幅减少合并刑期，可能使其总有效服刑时间落入20-30年区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 His current combined sentences of 39 years already significantly exceed the 30-year upper limit, making this range highly improbable. 其目前合计39年的刑期已远超30年上限，使得此范围内的判决可能性极低。
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500
#11 · Score 213

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso

5% -20.9%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,220 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 211

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

40% -20.5%

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $462,225 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 124

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

46% -12.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $7,975 Polymarket ↗
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500
#14 · Score 123

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

74% -12.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

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Vol 24h: $1,379 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 116

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?

100% +11.2%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $3,495 Polymarket ↗
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500
#16 · Score 95

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?

60% +9.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?

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Vol 24h: $189,136 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 88

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?

28% +8.5%

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?

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Vol 24h: $1,852 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 80

Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?

35% +7.5%

Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?

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Vol 24h: $12,217 Polymarket ↗
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500
#19 · Score 78

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

0% -7.4%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,411 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 76

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?

28% -7.2%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?

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Vol 24h: $4,384 Polymarket ↗
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500
#21 · Score 70

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?

4% -6.6%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?

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Vol 24h: $7,004 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 70

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?

100% +6.5%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?

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Vol 24h: $182,450 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 68

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?

10% -6.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?

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Vol 24h: $2,764 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 66

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

32% +6.0%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $393,128 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 63

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

15% -6.0%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,598 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 59

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

55% +5.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $7,219 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 58

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

52% +5.5%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,905 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 53

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

57% -5.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,012 Polymarket ↗
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500
#29 · Score 53

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

70% +5.0%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $963 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 46

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

6% -4.0%

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,149,860 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 23

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?

60% +2.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,940 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。