AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 22, 2026 17:30 UTC
#1 · Score 529

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?

12% -52.5%

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?

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Vol 24h: $4,476 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#2 · Score 414

Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on August 28? Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on August 28?

9% -40.9%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on August 28?

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Vol 24h: $46,500 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#3 · Score 289

Iran Targets UAE, Probability Hits 100% 伊朗袭击阿联酋，概率达100%

100% +28.4%

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

The probability for Iran targeting an Arab country on August 17, 2026, reached 100% after reports confirmed renewed missile fire. Haaretz reported on August 19, 2026, that the UAE suspended trade with Iran following these attacks, directly fulfilling the market's condition. 伊朗于2026年8月17日袭击阿拉伯国家的概率升至100%，此前有报道证实了新一轮导弹袭击。据《国土报》2026年8月19日报道，阿联酋在遭受这些袭击后暂停了与伊朗的贸易，直接满足了市场条件。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • UAE suspends trade after renewed missile fire.
  • US announces 'Economic D-Day' against Iran.
  • UAE intensifies economic pressure on Iran.
  • US-Iran hostile rhetoric and new sanctions.
  • 阿联酋因导弹袭击暂停贸易。
  • 美国宣布对伊朗“经济D日”。
  • 阿联酋加大对伊朗经济施压。
  • 美伊敌对言论及新制裁。
This event signifies a major escalation in regional tensions, potentially leading to wider conflict and disrupting global trade routes. It also highlights the failure of diplomatic efforts amid severe economic pressure on Iran. 此次事件标志着地区紧张局势的重大升级，可能导致更广泛的冲突并扰乱全球贸易路线。这也凸显了在伊朗面临严峻经济压力下，外交努力的失败。
Vol 24h: $96,480 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed missile fire on UAE confirms Iran's direct targeting of an Arab nation, fulfilling the market condition. 对阿联酋的导弹袭击证实伊朗直接攻击了阿拉伯国家，满足市场条件。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Future evidence could emerge clarifying the missile fire occurred on a different date or was not directly attributable to Iran. 未来证据可能澄清导弹袭击发生在不同日期或并非伊朗直接所为。
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500
#4 · Score 263

SpaceX Valuation Soars on Starlink Growth SpaceX估值因星链增长飙升

47% +26.0%

Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of August 2026?

The probability of SpaceX reaching a $2.00T-$2.25T market cap by August 2026 surged by 26% to 47%. This movement was primarily driven by the rapid expansion of its Starlink constellation, which now exceeds 11,000 satellites in orbit. SpaceX在2026年8月底市值达到2.00万亿至2.25万亿美元的概率飙升26%至47%。这一增长主要得益于其星链（Starlink）星座的快速扩张，目前在轨卫星已超过11,000颗。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX’s Starlink constellation surpasses 11,000 satellites, demonstrating rapid growth.
  • Investor confidence in high valuations for leading private tech companies.
  • Increasing global interest and investment in the commercial space sector.
  • SpaceX星链卫星突破1.1万颗，展现快速增长。
  • 投资者对领先私营科技公司高估值有信心。
  • 全球商业航天兴趣和投资持续增加。
SpaceX's valuation trajectory impacts the future of space exploration, satellite internet, and the broader private capital markets. Its success could accelerate technological advancements and global connectivity. SpaceX的估值轨迹影响着太空探索、卫星互联网的未来以及更广泛的私募资本市场。其成功可能加速技术进步和全球互联互通。
Vol 24h: $719 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Starlink's subscriber growth and Starship's operational success will drive SpaceX's valuation into the target range. 星链用户增长和星舰成功将推动SpaceX估值达标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory challenges, intense competition, and Starship development delays will prevent SpaceX from reaching the target valuation. 监管挑战、竞争加剧及星舰延迟将阻碍SpaceX估值达标。
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500
#5 · Score 249

FDV Probability Plunges Amid Crypto Weakness FDV概率暴跌，加密市场疲软

53% -24.5%

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

The probability for Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch has dropped sharply by 24.5% to 53%, driven by a broader bearish sentiment in the crypto market and a re-evaluation of high FDV targets in prediction markets. 推出一天后FDV超过1.5亿美元的概率急剧下降24.5%至53%，主要受加密市场普遍看跌情绪和预测市场对高FDV目标重新评估的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Prediction market shows "sharp drop-off in probabilities" for FDVs above $300M.
  • Ethereum price fell below $1900 on August 17, signaling market weakness.
  • Odds for Ethereum below $2,500 by 2026 rose to 42%.
  • 预测市场显示，高于3亿美元的FDV概率出现“急剧下降”。
  • 以太坊价格在8月17日跌破1900美元，预示市场疲软。
  • 到2026年以太坊保持在2500美元以下的几率升至42%。
This movement reflects waning investor confidence in new crypto project valuations and the overall health of the altcoin market. 这一变化反映了投资者对新加密项目估值的信心减弱，以及山寨币市场的整体健康状况。
Vol 24h: $27,608 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong project utility or a sudden positive shift in broader crypto sentiment could quickly reverse the trend. 强大的项目实用性或加密市场情绪的突然积极转变可能迅速扭转趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent crypto market downturn and specific project concerns will likely keep the FDV below the $150M threshold. 持续的加密市场低迷和项目特定担忧可能会使FDV保持在1.5亿美元以下。
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500
#6 · Score 188

Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between

46% +18.5%

Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,073 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 185

Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026 Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026

48% +18.1%

Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,402 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#8 · Score 168

Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?

10% -16.5%

Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $952 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 163

Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?

44% -16.0%

Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $651 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 148

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026 Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026

53% +14.5%

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $920 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 139

Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31? Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?

20% +13.6%

Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,421 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 129

Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?

70% +12.5%

Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $7,080 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 128

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?

74% -12.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,308 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 122

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

31% +11.8%

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $1,414 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 103

Will XRP reach $1.80 in August? Will XRP reach $1.80 in August?

20% +9.8%

Will XRP reach $1.80 in August?

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Vol 24h: $68,884 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 94

Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026? Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?

48% +9.0%

Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $19,643 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 93

US recession by end of 2027? US recession by end of 2027?

34% +9.0%

US recession by end of 2027?

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Vol 24h: $2,337 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 93

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

12% -9.0%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

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Vol 24h: $521 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 88

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest

80% -8.5%

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?

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Vol 24h: $2,480 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 88

Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?

31% -8.5%

Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,343 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 81

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August

8% +7.8%

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?

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Vol 24h: $4,102 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 79

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

37% -7.5%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $10,775 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 79

Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP

7% -7.5%

Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?

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Vol 24h: $8,797 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 78

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?

51% -7.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,196 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#25 · Score 70

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22? Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?

100% +6.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?

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Vol 24h: $90,768 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 68

Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?

9% +6.4%

Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $17,058 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 67

Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August? Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August?

9% +6.2%

Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August?

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Vol 24h: $18,461 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#28 · Score 64

Will Trump and Putin not meet? Will Trump and Putin not meet?

52% -6.0%

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,293 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 62

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b

90% +5.9%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,802 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 62

Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on August 22? Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on August 22?

100% +5.8%

Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on August 22?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $18,070 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 45

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

32% +4.0%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $77,683 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。