AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 19, 2026 21:18 UTC
#1 · Score 746

Hormuz Transits Plummet on Iran Tolls 霍尔木兹海峡通行量因伊朗收费骤降

75% +74.1%

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

The probability of fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has surged to 75% following Iran's imposition of new tolls and the establishment of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority. This move, coupled with reports of Iran's new insurance plan, significantly deters commercial shipping. 霍尔木兹海峡通行船舶少于20艘的概率已飙升至75%，此前伊朗宣布征收新通行费并成立波斯湾海峡管理局。此举，加上伊朗新保险计划的报道，显著阻碍了商业航运。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran imposes new transit tolls
  • New Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control
  • Reports of Iran's new insurance plan
  • 伊朗实施新的过境费
  • 波斯湾海峡管理局成立
  • 伊朗新保险计划报道
Reduced shipping through Hormuz impacts global oil supply chains and raises energy prices, potentially escalating geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. 霍尔木兹海峡航运减少将影响全球石油供应链并推高能源价格，可能加剧波斯湾地区的地缘政治紧张。
Vol 24h: $348,933 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's new tolls and insurance requirements will continue to deter most commercial vessels from transiting the Strait. 伊朗新收费和保险要求将继续阻止大多数商船通过海峡。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 International pressure or urgent cargo needs could force more ships to pay tolls and resume transits despite new restrictions. 国际压力或紧急货物需求可能迫使更多船舶支付费用并恢复通行。
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500
#2 · Score 694

SPX Opens Down on May 19 标普500指数5月19日低开

0% -69.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?

The probability of the S&P 500 opening up on May 19 plummeted to 0%, driven by widespread declines in U.S. stock futures. Technology stocks continued their fall, while rising Treasury yields fueled investor caution. 标普500指数5月19日高开的可能性降至0%，主要受美国股指期货普遍下跌驱动。科技股持续下挫，而不断上升的国债收益率加剧了投资者的谨慎情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S. stock futures down for May 19
  • Technology stocks continued falling
  • Rising long-term Treasury yields
  • 5月19日美国股指期货下跌
  • 科技股持续下挫
  • 长期国债收益率攀升
Persistent market weakness, especially in tech, signals broader economic concerns and a potential shift in investor preference towards safer assets. 市场持续疲软，特别是科技股，预示着更广泛的经济担忧，以及投资者可能转向更安全资产。
Vol 24h: $93,662 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings reports or unexpected positive economic data could reverse pre-market declines. 强劲的企业财报或意外利好经济数据可能逆转盘前跌势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued tech sector weakness and rising yields will likely ensure a lower S&P 500 open. 科技股持续疲软和收益率上升将确保标普500指数低开。
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500
#3 · Score 683

Global Health Emergency Drives AMZN Price Drop 全球疫情重创亚马逊股价

100% +68.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of May 18 2026?

The probability of AMZN hitting a $256 low by May 18, 2026, jumped to 100% after an Ebola outbreak was declared a Global Health Emergency. This crisis is expected to cause widespread economic disruption and market downturns. 亚马逊股价在2026年5月18日当周触及256美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前埃博拉疫情被宣布为全球健康紧急事件。这场危机预计将引发广泛的经济中断和市场下行。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ebola outbreak declared Global Health Emergency.
  • Expected widespread economic disruption and panic.
  • 11th Circuit questions Amazon's NLRB standing.
  • 埃博拉疫情宣布为全球健康紧急事件。
  • 预期经济广泛中断和市场恐慌。
  • 第11巡回法院质疑亚马逊NLRB立场。
A global health crisis severely impacts consumer spending and supply chains, potentially leading to a broad market correction and significant losses for Amazon. Specific legal challenges exacerbate the company's outlook. 全球健康危机严重影响消费者支出和供应链，可能导致市场普遍回调和亚马逊等主要公司的重大损失。具体的法律挑战进一步恶化了公司前景。
Vol 24h: $2,044 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Rapid containment of the health crisis and Amazon's robust e-commerce resilience could avert a severe stock decline. 疫情迅速得到控制，加上亚马逊强大的电商韧性，可避免股价大幅下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The declared Global Health Emergency and specific legal challenges will drastically reduce consumer demand and Amazon's profitability. 全球健康紧急事件和法律挑战将严重打击消费者需求和亚马逊盈利能力。
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500
#4 · Score 523

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

100% +51.9%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,477 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $45,763 Polymarket ↗
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500
#6 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $44,730 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $42,037 Polymarket ↗
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500
#8 · Score 499

Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? Ethereum Up or Down on May 19?

100% +49.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $79,382 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 494

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19?

2% -49.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $7,096 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 474

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 19? Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 19?

3% -47.0%

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,887 Polymarket ↗
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500
#11 · Score 459

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19? Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19?

4% -45.5%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,218 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 400

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?

100% +39.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $335,986 Polymarket ↗
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500
#13 · Score 379

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?

72% +37.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,528 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 291

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?

21% -28.5%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $133,191 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 290

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?

24% -28.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $54,100 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 265

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

44% -26.1%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,221 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 264

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026?

35% +26.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,290 Polymarket ↗
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500
#18 · Score 249

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?

85% +24.5%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $17,846 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 244

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 18 2026? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 18 2026?

100% +23.9%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 18 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $19,551 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 230

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19?

76% +22.5%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $32,982 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 213

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

16% -20.8%

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $164,164 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 208

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 19? Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 19?

0% -20.4%

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,366 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 200

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?

70% +19.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $86,710 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 194

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of May 18 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of May 18 2026?

62% -19.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of May 18 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,174 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 179

Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1? Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1?

23% +17.5%

Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,388 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 176

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

42% -17.0%

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $418,363 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 153

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

38% +14.7%

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $521,977 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 139

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 19? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 19?

3% -13.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,021 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 135

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?

63% +13.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $38,167 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 134

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 19? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 19?

61% +13.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,039 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 130

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

25% -12.6%

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,466 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 85

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

28% +8.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $88,410 Polymarket ↗
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。