AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 18, 2026 10:41 UTC
#1 · Score 395

Bitcoin Probability Surges on Bullish Outlook 比特币看涨概率飙升

94% +39.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on July 18 surged to 94%, driven by strong institutional endorsement and positive technical signals. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's "very bullish" 12-month prediction significantly boosted market confidence. 比特币在7月18日上涨的概率飙升至94%，主要受机构看好和积极技术信号驱动。贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克“非常看好”未来12个月的预测显著提振了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's "very bullish" prediction.
  • Bitcoin tests "fast line," nearing key pivot.
  • Ethereum leads, broader crypto market strengthens.
  • 贝莱德CEO芬克发布“非常看好”预测。
  • 比特币测试“快线”，接近关键枢轴点。
  • 以太坊领涨，加密市场整体走强。
Bitcoin's price movement is a key indicator of overall crypto market health and investor appetite for digital assets. 比特币价格走势是衡量整体加密市场健康状况和投资者对数字资产风险偏好的关键指标。
Vol 24h: $151,901 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Larry Fink's strong long-term bullish outlook and Bitcoin's positive technical indicators suggest continued upward momentum. 贝莱德CEO芬克的长期看涨展望和比特币积极技术指标预示持续上涨动能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin approaching a "demanding decision zone" with "exit signals building" could trigger a reversal. 比特币正接近“关键决策区”，并出现“退出信号”，可能引发价格逆转。
Loading…
500
#2 · Score 370

Ethereum Surges: Market Bets on July 18 Rise 以太坊飙升：市场看好7月18日上涨

86% +36.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 18?

The probability of Ethereum being up on July 18 surged to 86% following strong performance. KITCO reports highlighted Ethereum leading and continuing higher despite Bitcoin's potential pivot points. 以太坊在7月18日上涨的概率飙升至86%，此前表现强劲。KITCO报道强调以太坊领涨并持续走高，尽管比特币面临关键转折点。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • KITCO: "Ethereum leads" crypto market.
  • KITCO: "Ethereum continued higher on Wednesday."
  • KITCO: Bitcoin "nears a key pivot" shifting focus.
  • KITCO报道：以太坊领涨加密市场。
  • KITCO报道：以太坊周三持续走高。
  • KITCO报道：比特币临近关键转折点。
This movement suggests investors are increasingly confident in Ethereum's independent strength and its ability to outperform Bitcoin in the short term. It could signal a shift in crypto market leadership. 这一走势表明投资者对以太坊的独立实力及其短期内跑赢比特币的能力越来越有信心。这可能预示着加密市场领导地位的转变。
Vol 24h: $77,272 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Ethereum's demonstrated independent strength and continued upward momentum will drive further gains by July 18. 以太坊展现出的独立强势和持续上涨势头将推动其在7月18日前进一步上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's potential 'exit signals' and 'rotation warning' for Ethereum dominance could drag ETH down. 比特币潜在的“退出信号”和以太坊主导地位的“轮换警告”可能拖累以太坊下跌。
Loading…
500
#3 · Score 364

Bitcoin Up Probability Soars 比特币上涨概率飙升

90% +36.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

The "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET" market saw its "Up" probability surge by 36% to 90%, driven by consistent bullish sentiment in prior short-term prediction markets. For example, the July 17 market for the same 15-minute window had a 96% "Up" probability. “比特币上涨或下跌 - 7月18日，5:30AM-5:45AM ET”市场的“上涨”概率飙升36%至90%，主要受此前短期预测市场持续看涨情绪驱动。例如，7月17日同一15分钟窗口的市场“上涨”概率高达96%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Strong 'Up' probability in July 17 15m market
  • Consistent bullish trend in recent short-term markets
  • Absence of immediate negative Bitcoin catalysts
  • 7月17日15分钟市场“上涨”概率高
  • 近期短期市场持续看涨趋势
  • 缺乏即时比特币利空消息
This reflects the Polymarket community's strong conviction in short-term Bitcoin price stability or growth, influencing trading strategies for this specific window. 这反映了Polymarket社区对短期比特币价格稳定或上涨的强烈信心，影响该特定时间段的交易策略。
Vol 24h: $8,033 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Historical success of "Up" outcomes in similar 15-minute markets, like July 17's 96% "Up" probability, reinforces bullish bets. 类似15分钟市场（如7月17日96%“上涨”概率）的历史成功案例，增强了看涨押注。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The extremely high 90% "Up" probability could signal an overconfident market, vulnerable to minor price fluctuations or profit-taking. 极高的90%“上涨”概率可能预示市场过度自信，易受小幅价格波动或获利回吐影响。
Loading…
500
#4 · Score 298

NFLX $65 Low Probability Dips 奈飞跌破65美元概率下降

40% -29.5%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Netflix stock plunged to a 52-week low of $67.74 after a mixed earnings report. However, the probability of it hitting $65 in July decreased by 29.5% in 24 hours, driven by analysts suggesting investors are 'missing the bigger picture' (Fortune), implying a potential floor. 奈飞股价在发布喜忧参半的财报后，暴跌至52周新低67.74美元。然而，其在7月触及65美元低点的概率在24小时内下降了29.5%，主要原因是分析师指出投资者可能“错失大局”（财富杂志），暗示股价可能已触底。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Analyst counter-narrative on 'bigger picture' (Fortune).
  • Market perceives $67.74 as a temporary bottom.
  • Expectation of short-term rebound post-9% plunge.
  • 分析师提出“大局”的相反观点（财富杂志）。
  • 市场认为67.74美元是短期底部。
  • 预期股价在9%暴跌后短期反弹。
This reflects a battle between immediate negative earnings reactions and longer-term growth narratives, impacting investor confidence in streaming's future. 这反映了市场对即时负面财报反应与长期增长叙事之间的拉锯，影响着投资者对流媒体未来的信心。
Vol 24h: $1,155 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued investor doubts over growth and revenue miss (Reuters) could easily push NFLX below $65. 投资者对增长和营收不及预期的持续担忧（路透社）可能轻易将奈飞股价推至65美元以下。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Analysts' 'bigger picture' narrative (Fortune) suggests a floor, preventing NFLX from dropping to $65. 分析师的“大局”叙事（财富杂志）暗示股价已触底，阻止奈飞跌至65美元。
Loading…
500
#5 · Score 294

Bitcoin Probability Plunges on Miner Sales 比特币上涨概率因矿企抛售暴跌

22% -29.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5AM ET

Bitcoin's 'Up' probability for July 18, 5 AM ET plummeted 29% to 22%, primarily driven by major miner Bitdeer selling 244.3 BTC and maintaining zero holdings. This move, coupled with technical 'exit signals' building, indicates strong bearish sentiment. 比特币在7月18日凌晨5点（ET）上涨的概率暴跌29%至22%，主要原因是矿业巨头Bitdeer本周出售244.3枚比特币并维持零持仓。此举，加上技术面“退出信号”的出现，表明市场看跌情绪强烈。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitdeer sells 244.3 BTC, holds zero.
  • KITCO reports 'exit signals build' for Bitcoin.
  • Ethereum dominance flashes 'rotation warning'.
  • Bitdeer出售244.3枚比特币并清仓。
  • KITCO报道比特币“退出信号”正在形成。
  • 以太坊主导地位发出“轮动警告”。
Significant sales by a Nasdaq-listed mining company can signal broader institutional sentiment and impact market supply, potentially influencing Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory. 纳斯达克上市矿企的大规模抛售可能预示着更广泛的机构情绪，并影响市场供应，从而左右比特币的短期价格走势。
Vol 24h: $8,559 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite recent drops, Bitcoin's recent 4% pump and potential for global risk appetite improvement could lead to a rebound. 尽管近期下跌，比特币近期4%的上涨和全球风险偏好改善的潜力可能促使其反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure from large entities like Bitdeer and building technical 'exit signals' point to further downside risk. Bitdeer等大型实体持续抛售，以及技术面“退出信号”的累积，预示着进一步的下行风险。
Loading…
500
#6 · Score 254

UMich Sentiment Jumps Past Target 密歇根信心指数跳出区间

8% -25.1%

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?

The probability for UMich Consumer Sentiment to be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July plummeted by 25.1% to 8%. This sharp decline was driven by the preliminary July Consumer Sentiment reading surging to 54.4, significantly exceeding expectations and the target range. 密歇根大学7月消费者信心指数落在43.0至45.9区间的概率骤降25.1%至8%。这一急剧下降是由于7月初步消费者信心指数飙升至54.4，远超预期和目标区间所致。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Preliminary July UMich Sentiment hit 54.4
  • Reading significantly above 43.0-45.9 range
  • Lower gas prices boosted consumer optimism
  • 7月密歇根初步信心指数达54.4
  • 读数远高于43.0-45.9目标区间
  • 汽油价格下降提振消费者信心
Consumer sentiment is a key indicator of future spending and economic health. A higher-than-expected reading suggests stronger consumer confidence despite ongoing inflation concerns. 消费者信心指数是衡量未来消费支出和经济健康的关键指标。高于预期的读数表明尽管通胀持续，消费者信心依然强劲。
Vol 24h: $2,499 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Final UMich sentiment could be revised downwards significantly, potentially falling back into the 43.0-45.9 range. 最终密歇根指数可能大幅下修，重回43.0-45.9区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Preliminary July UMich Sentiment at 54.4 makes it highly improbable for the final reading to fall into the 43.0-45.9 range. 7月初步指数54.4，使得最终读数落入43.0-45.9区间可能性极低。
Loading…
500
#7 · Score 235

Houthis Shipping Threat Fades 胡塞武装航运威胁消退

0% -23.1%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?

The probability of Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 17, 2026, plummeted to 0% after US strikes on Iran. Iran's subsequent retaliation focused on direct attacks on Gulf states, not activating Houthi shipping threats. 在美国对伊朗发动袭击后，胡塞武装在2026年7月17日前成功袭击航运的概率骤降至0%。伊朗随后的报复行动集中于直接袭击海湾国家，而非启动胡塞武装的航运威胁。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US strikes on Iran occurred (Reuters).
  • Iran retaliated directly on Gulf states.
  • Houthi attacks conditional on US hitting Iran power network.
  • Iran chose alternative response to US strikes.
  • 美国已对伊朗发动袭击（路透社）。
  • 伊朗直接报复袭击海湾国家。
  • 胡塞武装袭击取决于美方打击伊朗电网。
  • 伊朗选择其他方式回应美国袭击。
This movement indicates a de-escalation of the specific Red Sea shipping threat, but highlights ongoing regional tensions and Iran's direct retaliatory capabilities. It impacts global trade routes and regional stability. 这一变化表明红海特定航运威胁有所缓和，但凸显了持续的地区紧张局势和伊朗的直接报复能力。它影响全球贸易路线和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $35,922 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran could still activate Houthis if US strikes escalate further or target specific infrastructure like power networks. 若美国袭击进一步升级或针对特定基础设施，伊朗仍可能启动胡塞武装。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran has already retaliated directly, making Houthi shipping attacks by the deadline highly unlikely. 伊朗已直接进行报复，胡塞武装在截止日期前袭击航运的可能性极低。
Loading…
500
#8 · Score 229

ECB Hike Odds Surge on Inflation Fears 欧央行加息预期因通胀担忧飙升

82% +22.5%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

The probability of an ECB 25 bps hike in September 2026 surged to 82% following renewed geopolitical tensions and a hawkish shift in central bank rhetoric. Escalating Hormuz hostilities and a 'volatile' outlook are driving a rethink on inflation and future rate policy. 欧洲央行在2026年9月加息25个基点的可能性升至82%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势加剧和央行鹰派言论转变影响。霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级和“极度波动”的前景促使市场重新评估通胀和未来利率政策。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Renewed Hormuz hostilities driving energy price spikes
  • ECB rates rethink amid 'extremely volatile' outlook
  • Global central banks signal persistent inflation concerns
  • 霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级推高能源价格
  • 欧洲央行在“极度波动”前景下重新考虑利率
  • 全球央行暗示通胀持续存在担忧
This market reflects investor expectations for the ECB's long-term monetary policy stance. A hike signals persistent inflation concerns and potentially tighter financial conditions for the Eurozone. 该市场反映了投资者对欧洲央行长期货币政策立场的预期。加息预示着持续的通胀担忧以及欧元区可能面临更紧缩的金融环境。
Vol 24h: $8,074 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent geopolitical conflicts and energy price shocks will force the ECB to hike rates to combat sustained inflation. 持续的地缘政治冲突和能源价格冲击将迫使欧洲央行加息以对抗持续通胀。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A significant economic slowdown or resolution of geopolitical tensions could allow the ECB to avoid further hikes. 经济显著放缓或地缘政治紧张局势缓解，可能使欧洲央行避免进一步加息。
Loading…
500
#9 · Score 213

Nvidia Eyes Second-Largest Spot 英伟达争夺第二大公司

48% +21.0%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Nvidia's probability to be the world's second-largest company by market cap on August 31 surged 21% to 48%. This movement was primarily driven by Apple briefly overtaking Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, shifting Nvidia from the top spot into contention for second. 英伟达在8月31日成为全球第二大公司的概率飙升21%至48%。这一变化主要由苹果短暂超越英伟达成为全球市值最高公司所驱动，使英伟达从第一位转变为第二位的有力竞争者。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple surpassed Nvidia as world's most valuable company.
  • Nvidia's strong AI chip demand sustains high valuation.
  • Investors reconsidering extreme AI investment valuations.
  • 苹果超越英伟达成全球市值最高。
  • 英伟达AI芯片需求强劲支撑高估值。
  • 投资者重新评估AI投资估值。
This market reflects the intense competition among tech giants for market cap leadership, indicating shifts in investor confidence and sector dominance, particularly in AI. 该市场反映了科技巨头在市值领导地位上的激烈竞争，预示着投资者信心和行业主导地位的转变，尤其是在人工智能领域。
Vol 24h: $1,601 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Nvidia's unparalleled AI chip demand and innovation will ensure its market cap remains robustly above Microsoft, securing the second position. 英伟达无与伦比的AI芯片需求和创新将确保其市值稳居微软之上，从而巩固第二的位置。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Microsoft's diversified cloud services and enterprise software growth could propel it past Nvidia, relegating Nvidia to third place. 微软多元化的云服务和企业软件增长可能超越英伟达，使其退居第三位。
Loading…
500
#10 · Score 188

Databricks $188B Valuation Damps $190B Hopes Databricks估值1880亿，1900亿目标承压

1% -18.4%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?

Databricks recently secured a $188 billion valuation, a significant bump, yet the market probability for it reaching $190 billion by July 31 plummeted by 18.4% to 1%. This sharp decline suggests investors view the $188 billion as a near-term ceiling rather than a stepping stone to the higher target. Databricks近期估值达到1880亿美元，虽有显著增长，但其在7月31日前达到1900亿美元的预测市场概率却骤降18.4%至1%。这表明投资者认为1880亿美元是短期上限，而非迈向更高目标的跳板。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Databricks' new $188B valuation signals current market peak.
  • PitchBook noted Databricks' growth 'quaint' compared to Anthropic.
  • Limited time until July 31 for further $2B valuation increase.
  • Databricks新1880亿美元估值或已达短期市场峰值。
  • PitchBook指出其增长较Anthropic“平淡”。
  • 距7月31日时间有限，难再增20亿美元估值。
Databricks' valuation trajectory reflects broader investor sentiment and growth expectations for established AI infrastructure companies amidst intense competition. Databricks的估值轨迹反映了投资者对成熟AI基础设施公司在激烈竞争中的增长预期和信心。
Vol 24h: $8,729 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new, substantial funding round or major IPO announcement could quickly push Databricks past $190 billion before July 31. 新一轮大规模融资或重大IPO公告可能在7月31日前迅速推动Databricks突破1900亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $188B valuation is current market consensus; no immediate catalysts for another $2B increase by July 31. 1880亿美元估值代表当前市场共识，短期内无催化剂推动其在7月31日前再增20亿美元。
Loading…
500
#11 · Score 184

JPM $1T Cap Hopes Dim 摩根大通万亿市值前景黯淡

24% -18.0%

Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by August 31?

JPMorgan's probability of reaching a $1 trillion market cap by August 31 dropped 18% to 24%, as market participants likely deemed recent strong Q2 earnings and bullish analyst reports insufficient for such a rapid valuation increase. Despite Bank of America's "more upside ahead" and Frank Cappelleri's "bullish charts," the ambitious target appears increasingly out of reach. 摩根大通在8月31日前达到1万亿美元市值的可能性下降18%至24%，市场参与者可能认为近期强劲的第二季度财报和看涨分析师报告不足以支撑如此快速的估值增长。尽管美国银行称“仍有上涨空间”，且Frank Cappelleri指出“图表和基本面看涨”，但这一宏伟目标似乎越来越难以实现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Market reassessment of JPM's growth trajectory post-Q2 earnings.
  • Positive Q2 earnings deemed insufficient to justify $1T valuation by Aug 31.
  • Potential profit-taking after JPM's recent strong performance.
  • 市场重新评估摩根大通第二季度财报后的增长轨迹。
  • 强劲的第二季度财报被认为不足以在8月31日前达到1万亿美元估值。
  • 摩根大通近期强劲表现后可能出现获利了结。
JPM's valuation trajectory reflects the health of the financial sector and broader capital markets, serving as a key indicator for investor confidence. 摩根大通的估值走势反映了金融业和更广泛资本市场的健康状况，是投资者信心的关键指标。
Vol 24h: $4,750 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained exceptional earnings growth, driven by robust deal-making and trading, could propel JPM towards the $1 trillion mark. 持续超出预期的强劲盈利增长，受强劲交易和并购活动推动，可能推动摩根大通迈向万亿市值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The immense gap to a $1 trillion market cap by August 31 remains too challenging, even with strong earnings. 即使业绩强劲，在8月31日前达到1万亿美元市值的巨大差距仍极具挑战性。
Loading…
500
#12 · Score 176

Iran Action: July 13 Probability Drops 伊朗对海湾国家行动：7月13日概率归零

0% -17.1%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

The probability for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13 plummeted to 0%, despite recent headlines detailing ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. This sharp decline suggests market participants anticipate a significant de-escalation or cessation of these specific actions by July 13. 尽管近期头条报道伊朗对巴林、科威特和沙特阿拉伯持续进行导弹和无人机袭击，但7月13日伊朗对海湾国家采取军事行动的概率骤降至0%。这一急剧下降表明市场参与者预计到7月13日，这些特定行动将大幅降级或停止。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ongoing Iranian attacks on Gulf States: Headlines confirm missile/drone strikes against Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Market's 0% probability for July 13: The sharp drop indicates strong belief current actions won't extend to that date.
  • Reciprocal strike pattern: US and Iran engaging in tit-for-tat strikes, potentially leading to a temporary lull by July 13.
  • 伊朗持续袭击海湾国家：头条证实对巴林、科威特和沙特的导弹/无人机袭击。
  • 市场对7月13日概率为0%：骤降至0%表明市场坚信当前行动不会持续到该日期。
  • 报复性打击模式：美伊互相对抗，可能导致7月13日前出现暂时平静。
This market reflects the volatile security situation in the Middle East and the potential for broader regional conflict impacting global energy markets and stability. 该市场反映了中东地区动荡的安全局势，以及可能影响全球能源市场和稳定的更广泛地区冲突。
Vol 24h: $62,180 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalation of current reciprocal strikes could extend to July 13, triggering new military actions. 当前报复性打击可能升级并持续至7月13日，引发新的军事行动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Current retaliatory actions are contained and expected to subside, preventing new military action by July 13. 当前报复行动预计将得到控制并减弱，阻止7月13日发生新的军事行动。
Loading…
500
#13 · Score 173

Bitcoin Range Probability Dips 比特币区间概率下降

6% -17.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 20?

The probability of Bitcoin being between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 20 dropped by 17% as institutional selling and market headwinds push prices lower. Bitdeer's sale of 244.3 BTC contributed to the downward pressure. 比特币在7月20日介于6万至6.2万美元之间的概率下降17%，因机构抛售和市场逆风导致价格走低。Bitdeer出售244.3枚比特币加剧了下行压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitdeer sold 244.3 BTC this week.
  • Bitcoin faces "fresh headwinds" and fell.
  • BlackRock CEO noted Bitcoin falling to $60,000.
  • Bitdeer本周出售244.3枚比特币。
  • 比特币面临“新逆风”并下跌。
  • 贝莱德CEO提及比特币跌至6万美元。
This movement reflects increased short-term volatility and bearish sentiment, potentially signaling a break below a key psychological support level for Bitcoin. 这一变化反映了短期波动性增加和看跌情绪，可能预示比特币将跌破关键心理支撑位。
Vol 24h: $1,599 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could find strong support at $60,000, bouncing back into the target range, fueled by underlying long-term bullish sentiment. 比特币可能在6万美元找到强劲支撑，在长期看涨情绪推动下反弹至目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued institutional selling and market headwinds will likely push Bitcoin decisively below $60,000, missing the target range. 持续的机构抛售和市场逆风可能将比特币推至6万美元以下，从而错过目标区间。
Loading…
500
#14 · Score 149

Credible FDV Surges Pre-Launch Credible FDV 预启动飙升

83% +14.5%

Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?

The probability for Credible's FDV exceeding $10M one day post-launch surged to 83%, up 14.5%. However, the provided headlines regarding SpaceX's Starship test flight and stock performance are unrelated to Credible and do not explain this specific market movement. Credible项目FDV在上线一天后超过1000万美元的概率升至83%，24小时内上涨14.5%。然而，提供的关于SpaceX星舰试飞和股价的头条新闻与Credible无关，无法解释此次市场变动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Positive project development news
  • Growing community interest
  • Anticipated high token demand
  • 积极的项目开发消息
  • 社区兴趣日益增长
  • 预期代币需求旺盛
A high initial FDV indicates strong market confidence and potential for a project's long-term success and adoption within the crypto ecosystem. 高初始FDV表明市场对项目有强烈信心，预示着其在加密生态系统中长期成功和被采纳的潜力。
Vol 24h: $6,235 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong pre-launch marketing and positive early reviews could drive significant demand, pushing FDV above $10M. 强大的预发布营销和积极的早期评价可能推动巨大需求，使FDV突破1000万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Low utility or market saturation could lead to insufficient demand, missing the $10M FDV target. 实用性不足或市场饱和，可能导致需求不振，难以达到1000万美元FDV目标。
Loading…
500
#15 · Score 131

Hormuz Transits Plummet Amid US-Iran Escalation 霍尔木兹海峡运输量骤降

19% -12.7%

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

The probability of 30 daily Hormuz transits by July 31, 2026, plunged by 12.7% as US-Iran attacks escalated, reducing daily commodity ship transits to just three on July 17, 2026. This drastic drop follows the US resuming its blockade and inspecting vessels like the Iran-flagged tanker Wen Yao. 霍尔木兹海峡在2026年7月31日前单日船只通过量达到30艘的概率骤降12.7%，因美伊冲突升级，7月17日单日商品船只通过量仅为三艘。美国恢复封锁并检查了伊朗油轮“文耀”号等船只，加剧了局势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Daily Hormuz transits fell to three ships on July 17, 2026.
  • US resumed blockade, inspecting Iran-flagged tanker Wen Yao.
  • US-Iran attacks escalated across the Gulf.
  • Iran declared Hormuz a 'red line'.
  • 7月17日霍尔木兹单日船只通过量降至三艘。
  • 美国恢复封锁并检查伊朗油轮“文耀”号。
  • 美伊在海湾地区袭击升级。
  • 伊朗警告霍尔木兹是“红线”。
Reduced shipping through Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint, signals severe geopolitical instability and could significantly impact global energy markets and trade. 霍尔木兹作为重要石油咽喉的运输量减少，预示着严重的地缘政治不稳定，可能对全球能源市场和贸易产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $13,559 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation efforts or a sudden US policy shift could quickly restore shipping volumes, pushing daily transits towards 30. 局势缓和或美国政策突然转向，可能迅速恢复航运量，使单日通过量接近30艘。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued US-Iran hostilities and intensified blockades will further suppress shipping, making 30 daily transits highly improbable. 美伊敌对行动持续及封锁加剧，将进一步抑制航运，使单日30艘通过量极不可能。
Loading…
500
#16 · Score 131

SpaceX Stock Dips on Starship Scrub 星舰发射取消，SpaceX股价下跌

72% -12.7%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?

The probability of SpaceX closing above $110 by end of July dropped by 12.7% to 72%. This decline was primarily driven by the scrubbed Starship Flight 13 test launch, which sent the stock to new lows below its $135 IPO price. SpaceX 7月底收盘价高于110美元的概率在24小时内下降了12.7%至72%。这主要由于星舰13号试飞计划被取消，导致股价跌至新低并跌破135美元的IPO发行价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Starship Flight 13 test launch scrubbed on July 16.
  • SPCX stock fell below its $135 IPO price.
  • Stock hit new all-time lows after the scrub.
  • 7月16日星舰13号试飞取消。
  • SPCX股价跌破135美元IPO价。
  • 股价因发射取消创历史新低。
SpaceX's stock performance is closely tied to its operational milestones, with Starship's progress being a key indicator for future valuation and investor confidence. SpaceX的股价表现与其运营里程碑紧密相关，星舰的进展是未来估值和投资者信心的关键指标。
Vol 24h: $9,593 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A successful Starship launch or positive news could quickly reverse the trend, especially with investors like Cathie Wood buying the dip. 星舰成功发射或利好消息可能迅速扭转趋势，尤其有凯茜·伍德等投资者逢低买入。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Further launch delays or continued market sell-off could push the stock further down, making the $110 target harder to reach. 进一步的发射延误或市场持续抛售可能使股价进一步下跌，使110美元目标更难实现。
Loading…
500
#17 · Score 125

Clarity Act Passage Hopes Rise 《清晰法案》通过希望增加

42% +12.0%

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 jumped 12% to 42%, driven by increased advocacy and key industry endorsement. Proponents launched a media blitz, and the Coinbase Vice Chair publicly supported the bill. 《清晰法案》在2026年前签署成为法律的概率跃升12%至42%，主要受倡导者加大宣传和关键行业支持推动。法案支持者发起了媒体攻势，且Coinbase副主席公开表示支持。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Clarity Act proponents initiate media blitz
  • Coinbase Vice Chair endorses Clarity Act
  • Bill framed as consumer protection measure
  • 《清晰法案》支持者发起媒体攻势
  • Coinbase副主席公开表示支持
  • 法案被定位为消费者保护措施
Passage of the Clarity Act would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, potentially impacting consumer protection and the crypto industry significantly. 《清晰法案》若获通过，将为数字资产建立更清晰的监管框架，可能对消费者保护和加密行业产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $37,939 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong industry backing from Coinbase and a focused media campaign will likely propel the Clarity Act through Congress. Coinbase等行业巨头的强力支持和集中的媒体宣传将推动《清晰法案》在国会通过。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite recent momentum, legislative gridlock or strong political opposition could still prevent the Clarity Act's passage. 尽管近期势头强劲，但立法僵局或强大的政治阻力仍可能阻碍《清晰法案》的通过。
Loading…
500
#18 · Score 118

AI Boom Fuels Neuralink Valuation Hopes AI热潮推高Neuralink估值预期

18% +11.5%

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?

Neuralink's $100B valuation probability rose to 18% as the broader AI sector shows massive valuation growth. Databricks' $188B valuation and Anthropic's even higher implied value signal strong investor appetite. Neuralink估值达1000亿美元的概率升至18%，主要受AI行业整体估值飙升驱动。Databricks估值达1880亿美元，Anthropic估值更高，显示投资者对AI的强烈兴趣。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Databricks hits $188B valuation
  • Anthropic's implied higher valuation
  • General AI sector valuation boom
  • Databricks估值达1880亿美元
  • Anthropic估值被指更高
  • AI行业整体估值持续飙升
This trend reflects investor confidence in the long-term potential of advanced AI and neurotechnology, despite inherent risks. 此趋势反映投资者对先进AI和神经科技长期潜力的信心，尽管存在固有风险。
Vol 24h: $3,173 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong AI sector valuations and Neuralink's disruptive tech could attract significant investment, pushing its valuation. 强劲的AI行业估值和Neuralink的颠覆性技术，有望吸引大量投资，推高其估值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Neuralink faces significant regulatory hurdles and long development timelines, making a $100B valuation by year-end challenging. Neuralink面临重大监管障碍和漫长开发周期，年底前达千亿估值具挑战。
Loading…
500
#19 · Score 117

US-Iran Tensions Block Diplomacy 美伊紧张局势阻碍外交

32% +11.2%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

The probability of no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026, rose by 11.2% to 32%, driven by escalating military tensions and strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite some reports of "hopes for diplomacy," the market is reacting to increased conflict. 到2026年9月30日美伊不举行合格外交会议的概率上升11.2%至32%，主要受霍尔木兹海峡军事紧张局势升级和袭击事件驱动。尽管有报道称“外交希望仍在”，但市场对冲突加剧反应强烈。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Intensified fighting in Strait of Hormuz
  • US-Iran tensions escalate with strikes
  • Historical difficulty in US-Iran agreements
  • 霍尔木兹海峡冲突加剧
  • 美伊紧张升级并发生袭击
  • 美伊协议历史性履行困难
The absence of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran risks further regional instability and potential broader conflict, impacting global energy markets and security. 美伊之间缺乏外交接触可能进一步加剧地区不稳定和潜在的更广泛冲突，影响全球能源市场和安全。
Vol 24h: $23,769 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued military escalation and lack of trust, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, will prevent any meaningful diplomatic meeting by 2026. 军事冲突持续升级及互信缺失，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡，将阻止2026年前的任何有意义外交会议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 De-escalation or a US policy shift, as suggested by VP Vance, could lead to a diplomatic breakthrough. 局势降级或如副总统万斯所暗示的美国政策转变，可能促成外交突破。
Loading…
500
#20 · Score 110

Iran Rial Collapse Accelerates 伊朗里亚尔加速贬值

100% +10.6%

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by July 31?

The probability of USD reaching 1.9M Iranian rials by July 31 surged to 100% due to escalating US-Iran conflict and intensified economic pressure. Ongoing US military actions and severe domestic inflation are rapidly devaluing the rial. 美元兑伊朗里亚尔在7月31日前达到190万的概率升至100%，主要受美伊冲突升级和经济压力加剧驱动。持续的军事行动和严重的国内通胀正迅速使里亚尔贬值。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Escalating US-Iran conflict, with daily air strikes continuing.
  • Intensified US blockade enforcement on Iran-flagged oil tankers.
  • Severe domestic inflation crippling Iranian pensioners' purchasing power.
  • 美伊冲突升级，美军空袭行动持续。
  • 美国加强对伊朗油轮的封锁检查。
  • 伊朗国内通胀严重，民众购买力受损。
This market reflects the dire state of Iran's economy, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, and its profound impact on ordinary citizens' livelihoods. 该市场反映了伊朗经济的严峻状况，地缘政治紧张局势加剧了其困境，并严重影响普通民众生计。
Vol 24h: $4,041 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued US-Iran military escalation and economic sanctions will inevitably drive the rial past 1.9M per USD. 美伊军事冲突和经济制裁持续升级，将不可避免地推动里亚尔跌破190万兑1美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unexpected, rapid de-escalation of US-Iran conflict or significant international mediation could stabilize the rial. 美伊冲突意外迅速降级或国际有效调解，可能稳定里亚尔汇率。
Loading…
500
#21 · Score 109

Bitcoin Probability Drops Amid Miner Sales 比特币概率下跌：矿企抛售

40% -10.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

The probability of Bitcoin rising between 4:00AM-8:00AM ET on July 18 has fallen by 10.5% to 40%, primarily driven by a major mining company's significant BTC sales and growing technical 'exit signals'. Nasdaq-listed Bitdeer sold 244.3 BTC this week, maintaining zero holdings, while KITCO reported Bitcoin nearing a key pivot with 'exit signals build'. 7月18日美东时间凌晨4点至8点，比特币上涨概率下降10.5%至40%，主要受大型矿企大量抛售比特币及技术面“离场信号”增强影响。纳斯达克上市公司Bitdeer本周出售244.3枚比特币并清零持仓，同时KITCO报道比特币临近关键点且“离场信号增强”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitdeer sold 244.3 BTC, maintaining zero holdings this week.
  • KITCO reported 'exit signals build' as Bitcoin nears a key pivot.
  • KITCO noted 'global risk signals weaken' impacting Bitcoin's appeal.
  • Bitdeer本周出售244.3枚BTC并清零持仓。
  • KITCO报道比特币临近关键点，“离场信号增强”。
  • KITCO指出“全球风险信号减弱”影响比特币吸引力。
Major miner selling pressure directly impacts Bitcoin's supply-demand dynamics, while technical indicators guide short-term trader sentiment and potential price direction. 主要矿企的抛售压力直接影响比特币的供需动态，而技术指标则指导短期交易者情绪和潜在价格走向。
Vol 24h: $7,578 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's recent 4% pump could signal a short-term rebound from oversold levels, attracting new buying interest. 比特币近期4%的上涨可能预示着短期超卖反弹，吸引新的买盘兴趣。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitdeer's continued BTC sales and building 'exit signals' suggest further downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Bitdeer持续抛售及“离场信号”增加，预示比特币价格将面临进一步下行压力。
Loading…
500
#22 · Score 107

AAPL $336 July Target Confidence Drops 苹果七月目标价信心下滑

85% -10.4%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in July?

The probability of Apple hitting $336 in July fell 10.4% to 85%, driven by broader tech sector weakness and concerns over key supplier performance despite AAPL's small daily gains. Analyst sentiment regarding AAPL's short-term outlook may also have contributed to the decline. 苹果七月触及336美元的概率下降10.4%至85%，主要受科技股大盘疲软及关键供应商表现担忧影响，尽管苹果股价当日小幅上涨。分析师对苹果短期前景的看法可能也导致了这一跌幅。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Broader tech market decline (QQQ, MSFT, GOOGL).
  • Key supplier TSM shares down 2.7%.
  • Unspecified SA analyst sentiment shift.
  • 科技股大盘普遍下跌 (如QQQ, 微软)。
  • 关键供应商台积电股价下跌2.7%。
  • 分析师对苹果短期展望的调整。
This movement reflects market skepticism about Apple's short-term upside potential amidst a challenging tech environment, impacting investor confidence. 这一变化反映了市场对苹果在充满挑战的科技环境中短期上涨潜力的怀疑，影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $551 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong China market demand and Apple's resilience could push shares past $336 by July. 中国市场需求强劲及苹果自身韧性有望推动股价七月突破336美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader tech sector weakness and potential analyst downgrades may cap AAPL's short-term gains. 科技股大盘疲软和潜在的分析师评级下调可能限制苹果短期涨幅。
Loading…
500
#23 · Score 107

Solana Dip Unlikely Solana下跌可能性低

2% -10.3%

Will Solana dip to $70 July 13-19?

Solana's probability of dipping to $70 by July 19 decreased significantly to 2%, reflecting increased market confidence. This shift was primarily driven by an unexpected decline in wholesale inflation and continued upward movement in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Solana在7月19日前跌至70美元的可能性显著降至2%，反映出市场信心增强。这一变化主要得益于批发通胀意外下降以及比特币和以太坊的持续上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined.
  • Major stock indexes ended higher.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum continued higher.
  • 批发通胀意外下降。
  • 主要股指收盘走高。
  • 比特币和以太坊持续上涨。
This movement reflects increased confidence in the crypto market's resilience and broader economic stability, reducing immediate downside risk for Solana. 这一走势反映了市场对加密货币韧性和宏观经济稳定性的信心增强，降低了Solana的近期下行风险。
Vol 24h: $4,844 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden market downturn or significant negative crypto news could increase dip probability. 突发市场下行或重大负面加密货币新闻可能提高下跌概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued crypto market strength and positive economic data will keep Solana above $70. 加密货币市场持续走强和积极经济数据将使Solana保持在70美元以上。
Loading…
500
#24 · Score 103

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?

44% +10.0%

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,603 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#25 · Score 103

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?

84% -10.0%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,782 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#26 · Score 98

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 in July? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 in July?

34% -9.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $523 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 93

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

36% +8.8%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $119,794 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 83

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?

48% +8.0%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,321 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 80

Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

19% +7.5%

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $61,634 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 78

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24,

20% -7.5%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,842 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 78

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July? Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July?

22% -7.5%

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $540 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。