AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 18, 2026 09:21 UTC
#1 · Score 769

Iran Escalates Regional War Preparations 伊朗升级地区战争准备

86% +76.4%

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

The probability surged to 86% as Iran intensifies its regional war management and proxy operations. Recent reports indicate Iran is "managing war from Iraq" and sending advisors to Arab countries to plan with militias, while the UAE accuses Iran of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. 随着伊朗加强地区战争管理和代理人行动，概率飙升至86%。最新报道指出，伊朗正在“从伊拉克管理战争”，并向阿拉伯国家派遣顾问与民兵协调，同时阿联酋指责伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡发动袭击。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran managing war from Iraq, planning with proxies in Yemen, Lebanon.
  • UAE accuses Iran of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Trump's hardline stance, no deal extension, threats to bomb Oman.
  • 伊朗从伊拉克管理战争，与也门、黎巴嫩代理人协调。
  • 阿联酋指责伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡发动袭击。
  • 特朗普强硬立场，不延长协议，威胁轰炸阿曼。
This escalating regional tension significantly increases the risk of direct conflict involving Iran and Arab nations, threatening global energy security and regional stability. 地区紧张局势升级显著增加了伊朗与阿拉伯国家直接冲突的风险，威胁全球能源安全和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $44,699 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's active proxy network and recent accusations of attacks against the UAE confirm its intent and capability to target Arab nations. 伊朗活跃的代理人网络和近期对阿联酋袭击的指控，证实其有能力和意图打击阿拉伯国家。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic efforts or de-escalation by a new US administration could emerge, preventing Iran from initiating a direct attack. 新一届美国政府的外交努力或降级行动可能出现，阻止伊朗发动直接袭击。
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500
#2 · Score 464

BYD Removal Odds Plunge Amid Stumbles 比亚迪移出军工名单概率骤降

14% -46.0%

Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

The probability of BYD being removed from the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027, plummeted by 46% to 14%. This sharp decline was driven by recent reports, notably from Sino Auto Insights on CNBC, indicating BYD's commercial struggles in China. 比亚迪在2027年6月30日前被移出中国军工企业名单的概率骤降46%至14%。此次大幅下跌主要受CNBC等媒体报道比亚迪在中国市场遭遇商业困境的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BYD's reported commercial 'stumbling' in China
  • Geely's strong performance contrasting BYD
  • Reduced government incentive for BYD's image cleanup
  • 比亚迪中国市场商业困境
  • 吉利表现强劲与比亚迪形成对比
  • 政府减少推动比亚迪形象改善动力
This market reflects the perceived strategic importance and international standing of a major Chinese EV manufacturer. Its status impacts global investment and trade relations. 该市场反映了中国主要电动汽车制造商的战略重要性和国际地位。其地位影响全球投资和贸易关系。
Vol 24h: $8,193 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 China may prioritize BYD's global market access, pushing for its removal to ease international scrutiny. 中国可能优先考虑比亚迪的全球市场准入，推动其移出名单以减轻国际审查。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 BYD's domestic struggles could increase reliance on military ties, reducing removal likelihood. 比亚迪国内困境可能增加对军方联系的依赖，降低移出名单的可能性。
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500
#3 · Score 424

Bitcoin Surges: Up Probability Soars 比特币飙升：上涨概率大增

92% +42.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4AM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by August 18, 4AM ET, surged to 92% due to its recovery to near $64,000. This move was primarily driven by supportive macro conditions and a rebound from the $62,700 low. 比特币在8月18日美国东部时间凌晨4点前上涨的概率飙升至92%，主要得益于其回升至接近64,000美元。这一走势主要由宏观条件支持以及从62,700美元低点反弹驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price surge near $64,000
  • Recovery from $62,700 recent low
  • Supportive macro conditions
  • Stronger overall crypto market capitalization
  • 比特币价格飙升至近64,000美元
  • 从近期62,700美元低点反弹
  • 宏观经济条件保持支持
  • 加密货币总市值增强
Bitcoin's price stability and upward momentum are crucial indicators for broader cryptocurrency market health and investor confidence, especially ahead of key economic meetings. 比特币的价格稳定性和上涨势头是衡量更广泛加密货币市场健康和投资者信心的关键指标，尤其是在重要经济会议前。
Vol 24h: $28,141 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's price has recovered to $64,000, supported by favorable macro conditions and broader crypto market gains, indicating upward momentum. 比特币价格已回升至64,000美元，受利好宏观条件和整体加密市场上涨支撑，预示上行势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising 30-year bond yields, hitting near 20-year highs, could exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. 30年期债券收益率升至近20年高点，可能对未来比特币价格构成显著下行压力。
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500
#4 · Score 390

Oil Surges Past $85 on Geopolitical Tensions 油价突破85美元，地缘政治紧张

100% +38.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

WTI crude oil probability of hitting $85 in August surged to 100% after Bloomberg reported WTI climbed above $85 on August 17. This was driven by stalled US-Iran talks and persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions. WTI原油8月份触及85美元的概率飙升至100%，此前彭博社报道8月17日WTI已突破85美元。这主要受美伊谈判停滞和霍尔木兹海峡持续中断的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI climbed above $85 on August 17 (Bloomberg)
  • Stalled US-Iran talks reduce supply prospects
  • Iran keeps Hormuz shut amid new Gulf attacks
  • 彭博社报道WTI于8月17日突破85美元
  • 美伊谈判停滞及霍尔木兹海峡中断
  • 伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，海湾地区再遭袭击
Sustained high oil prices could fuel global inflation, impacting consumer spending and central bank monetary policies worldwide. It also highlights escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. 持续高油价可能加剧全球通胀，影响消费者支出和各国央行货币政策，并凸显中东地缘政治风险升级。
Vol 24h: $457,241 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued geopolitical instability and supply constraints from the Middle East will keep WTI well above $85 for the rest of August. 中东地缘政治持续不稳定和供应限制将使WTI在8月剩余时间远高于85美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden breakthrough in US-Iran talks or unexpected release of strategic reserves could push WTI below $85. 美伊谈判突然取得突破或意外释放战略储备可能将WTI推至85美元以下。
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500
#5 · Score 382

OPEN Surges on CEO Insider Buy OPEN因CEO增持股价飙升

88% +37.9%

Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 17 above $1.50?

The probability for Opendoor (OPEN) to close above $1.50 by August 17 surged by 37.9% to 88%. This significant increase was primarily driven by the disclosure of CEO Kasra Nejatian recently increasing his holdings in the company. Opendoor (OPEN) 在8月17日收盘价高于1.50美元的概率飙升37.9%至88%。这一显著增长主要由首席执行官Kasra Nejatian近期增持公司股份的消息推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Opendoor CEO Kasra Nejatian increased his company holdings.
  • Insider buying signals strong executive confidence.
  • Opendoor首席执行官Kasra Nejatian增持公司股份。
  • 内部人购买行为显示高管对公司信心。
Insider buying by a CEO often indicates a belief in undervalued stock or strong future prospects. This move suggests management sees significant upside potential for OPEN. 首席执行官的内部人购买通常表明其认为股票被低估或未来前景强劲。此举暗示管理层看好OPEN的显著上涨潜力。
Vol 24h: $1,943 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 CEO Kasra Nejatian's recent insider stock purchase signals strong executive confidence and potential for future price appreciation. 首席执行官Kasra Nejatian近期增持股票，表明高管对公司充满信心，预示未来股价可能上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite insider buying, broader market conditions or company-specific challenges could still prevent OPEN from holding $1.50. 尽管有内部人增持，但宏观市场或公司特定挑战仍可能阻止OPEN维持在1.50美元以上。
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500
#6 · Score 338

TSLA $330 Low Probability Surges 特斯拉触及330美元低点概率飙升

74% +33.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting a low of $330 by August 17, 2026, surged by 33.5% to 74%, driven by ongoing price volatility and the stock's recent rebound from late-July lows near $297. 特斯拉在2026年8月17日当周触及330美元低点的概率飙升33.5%至74%，主要受股价持续波动以及7月下旬从297美元低点反弹的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ongoing volatility in $320-$350 range
  • Recent rebound from July $297 lows
  • Current price $342.27 close to $330 target
  • 股价在320-350美元区间持续波动
  • 7月下旬曾从297美元低点反弹
  • 当前股价342.27美元接近330美元
This movement reflects increased market uncertainty regarding TSLA's short-term stability despite recent positive news, impacting investor confidence and option strategies. 这一变化反映了市场对特斯拉短期稳定性的不确定性增加，尽管近期有积极消息，但仍影响投资者信心和期权策略。
Vol 24h: $3,162 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent volatility and recent July lows near $297 indicate TSLA is prone to retesting $330 despite its current rebound. 持续波动及7月下旬触及297美元低点，表明特斯拉易于在反弹后重新测试330美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Record Q2 deliveries and "cracked China" news are driving TSLA higher, making a dip to $330 unlikely. 创纪录的二季度交付量和“攻克中国”消息正推动特斯拉走高，使其不太可能跌至330美元。
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500
#7 · Score 324

USD/IRR Range Bets Surge 美元/里亚尔区间预测大涨

54% +32.0%

Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?

The probability of USD being between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials by August 31 surged to 54% (+32%) in 24 hours. This significant shift was driven by substantial capital deployment into the market, as indicated by the "$38,316 deployed" headline. 美元兑伊朗里亚尔在8月31日介于180万至190万里亚尔之间的可能性在24小时内飙升32%至54%。这一显著变化主要受市场投入38,316美元巨额资金的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Significant capital ($38,316) deployed into USD/IRR market.
  • New "info" likely supports 1.8M-1.9M IRR range.
  • Increased market focus on USD/IRR end-of-August rate.
  • 美元/里亚尔市场投入38,316美元巨资。
  • 新信息可能支持180万-190万里亚尔区间。
  • 市场对8月底美元/里亚尔汇率关注度增加。
The USD/IRR exchange rate is a critical economic indicator for Iran, impacting inflation, trade, and the purchasing power of its citizens. A stable or predictable rate within this range could signal specific economic conditions or policy expectations. 美元兑伊朗里亚尔汇率是伊朗重要的经济指标，影响通胀、贸易和民众购买力。该区间的稳定或可预测性可能预示特定经济状况或政策预期。
Vol 24h: $3,362 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New information and significant investment suggest strong confidence USD/IRR will stabilize within the 1.8M-1.9M range by August 31. 新信息和大量投资表明，市场强烈看好美元/里亚尔在8月31日前稳定在该区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite recent investment, unforeseen economic sanctions or geopolitical events could push USD/IRR outside this predicted range. 尽管有近期投资，但意外的经济制裁或地缘政治事件可能使汇率偏离预测区间。
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500
#8 · Score 303

NVDA $220 Low Probability Soars 英伟达触及220美元低点概率飙升

82% +30.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting a low of $220 this week surged by 30% to 82%, primarily driven by negative financial news reported by the Wall Street Journal on August 16. NVIDIA shares were already trading near $225, making the $220 target a minor downward adjustment. 英伟达本周触及220美元低点的概率飙升30%至82%，主要受华尔街日报8月16日报道的金融利空消息驱动。英伟达股价此前已在225美元附近交易，使220美元的目标仅需小幅下跌即可达到。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Wall Street Journal reported "reduction of financial" news on August 16.
  • NVIDIA shares trading near $225 on August 16.
  • Upcoming August 26 earnings release creates short-term market uncertainty.
  • 华尔街日报8月16日报道了“金融紧缩”消息。
  • 英伟达股价8月16日交易价接近225美元。
  • 即将于8月26日发布的财报增加了短期市场不确定性。
This indicates growing market concern over broader financial headwinds impacting key AI sector players like NVIDIA. It suggests potential for increased volatility in the near term. 这反映出市场对更广泛金融逆风影响英伟达等关键AI领域参与者的担忧日益加剧。它预示着短期内可能出现更大的波动性。
Vol 24h: $3,067 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVIDIA's strong AI market position and potential positive earnings on August 26 could quickly rebound its stock price above $220 after any dip. 英伟达强大的AI市场地位和8月26日潜在的积极财报，可能在任何下跌后迅速推动股价反弹至220美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The reported "reduction of financial" news could trigger a broader market sell-off, easily pushing NVDA below $220 this week. 报道的“金融紧缩”消息可能引发更广泛的市场抛售，本周轻易将英伟达股价推至220美元以下。
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500
#9 · Score 278

ABNB $176 Low Probability Surges on Date/Number Coincidence 爱彼迎股价触及176美元低点概率飙升

56% +27.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $176 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Airbnb (ABNB) hitting a low of $176 by August 17, 2026, jumped 27.5% to 56%. This surge is driven by a perceived numerical and date coincidence in an America's Cup headline, coupled with concerns over ABNB's marketing engine rebuild. 爱彼迎(ABNB)股价在2026年8月17日当周触及176美元低点的概率飙升27.5%至56%。此涨幅主要受美洲杯新闻中日期与数字巧合，以及对爱彼迎营销引擎重建成本的担忧所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • America's Cup headline's "August 17, 2026" date match.
  • America's Cup headline's "176-year history" numerical match.
  • Concerns over ABNB's marketing engine rebuild costs.
  • 美洲杯新闻提及2026年8月17日日期巧合。
  • 美洲杯新闻中“176年历史”的数字巧合。
  • 爱彼迎营销引擎重建成本引发担忧。
This movement highlights how prediction markets can react to perceived patterns and the nuanced interpretation of company news, even if not directly bearish. It shows the sensitivity to specific numerical and date alignments. 此波动突显了预测市场如何对感知到的模式以及公司新闻的细微解读做出反应，即使并非直接利空。这表明市场对特定数字和日期对齐的敏感性。
Vol 24h: $1,263 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 ABNB's rebuilt marketing engine will drive robust growth, pushing its stock price significantly above $176 by 2026. 爱彼迎重建的营销引擎将强劲推动增长，使其股价在2026年前远超176美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High costs from ABNB's marketing engine rebuild could depress future profits, leading to a stock price drop towards $176. 爱彼迎营销引擎重建的高昂成本可能侵蚀未来利润，导致股价跌向176美元。
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500
#10 · Score 234

AMZN $256 Low Probability Surges 亚马逊触及256美元低点概率飙升

62% +23.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of AMZN hitting a $256 low by August 17, 2026, surged 23% to 62%, primarily driven by a recent 2.09% stock price drop to $272.27 on August 11, 2026. This decline brought the stock significantly closer to the target, reinforced by Polymarket odds for even lower price points. 亚马逊(AMZN)在2026年8月17日当周触及256美元低点的概率飙升23%至62%，主要受8月11日股价下跌2.09%至272.27美元推动。此次下跌使股价更接近目标，并得到Polymarket对更低价格点赔率的强化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AMZN stock dropped 2.09% to $272.27 (Aug 11, 2026)
  • Polymarket shows high odds for sub-$256 targets
  • August's historical market volatility
  • 亚马逊股价8月11日跌2.09%至272.27美元
  • Polymarket显示低于256美元目标赔率高
  • 八月份市场历史波动性
This movement reflects increasing market conviction in a near-term downside for Amazon, potentially signaling broader concerns despite strong Q2 earnings. 这一变化反映市场对亚马逊短期下行趋势的信心增强，可能预示着尽管二季度财报强劲，仍存在更广泛的担忧。
Vol 24h: $3,361 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q2 2026 earnings, with AWS growing 37% and AI/chips businesses expanding, could provide fundamental support preventing a deeper fall. 2026年二季度强劲财报，AWS增长37%，AI和芯片业务扩张，可能提供基本面支撑，阻止股价深跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The recent stock price drop and significant Polymarket volume on lower targets suggest strong momentum for AMZN to hit $256. 近期股价下跌和Polymarket对更低目标的大量交易量，表明亚马逊触及256美元的强劲下行动力。
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500
#11 · Score 233

SPY $790 Target Dips Post-Record High SPY $790目标概率骤降

3% -22.9%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of SPY hitting $790 by August 17, 2026, plummeted by 22.9% to 3% after the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 7,814.88. This decline suggests market participants perceive the rally's momentum as slowing, making the additional upside to $790 less likely within the week. SPY在2026年8月17日当周触及$790的概率骤降22.9%至3%，此前标普500指数已创下7,814.88点的历史新高。这表明市场参与者认为在当前反弹后，进一步上涨至$790的可能性降低。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 index hit 7,814.88.
  • "Modest gains" despite new highs.
  • Rally exhaustion after record peak.
  • 标普500指数达7,814.88点。
  • 创新高但涨幅“温和”。
  • 市场反弹可能已耗尽。
This movement reflects investor caution regarding the sustainability of the current market rally and the potential for a near-term plateau after reaching record valuations. 这一变化反映了投资者对当前市场反弹可持续性的谨慎态度，以及在达到历史高点后短期内可能出现的平台期。
Vol 24h: $2,100 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong AI/tech earnings and persistent cooling inflation could fuel the necessary 1.1% surge to $790. 强劲的AI/科技公司盈利和持续降温的通胀可能推动SPY实现$790的额外涨幅。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The S&P 500's "modest gains" and recent record high of 7,814.88 suggest a temporary peak, making $790 unlikely. 标普500指数的“温和涨幅”和7,814.88点的历史新高表明可能已达短期峰值，使$790难以实现。
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500
#12 · Score 218

Opendoor $4 Target Probability Plunges Opendoor 股价达4美元概率骤降

17% -21.5%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.00 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Opendoor (OPEN) hitting $4.00 by August 17, 2026, dropped 21.5% in 24 hours to 17%, driven by recent earnings and revenue misses and analyst downgrades. Despite raising $1.09 billion in zero-coupon funding, the stock remains at $3.64, facing significant headwinds. Opendoor (OPEN) 股价在24小时内跌至17%，达到4美元的概率下降了21.5%，主要受近期财报营收双双不及预期及分析师下调评级影响。尽管通过零息债券筹集了10.9亿美元增长资金，股价仍停留在3.64美元，面临巨大阻力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Opendoor's recent earnings and revenue miss
  • Bearish analyst downgrades on OPEN stock
  • Persistent housing-market headwinds
  • Opendoor近期营收和盈利不及预期
  • 分析师下调OPEN股票评级
  • 持续存在的房地产市场逆风
Opendoor's ability to secure substantial funding amidst poor performance highlights its struggle to achieve profitability and growth targets in a volatile housing market. Opendoor在业绩不佳的情况下仍能获得巨额融资，凸显其在波动房地产市场中实现盈利和增长目标的困境。
Vol 24h: $1,079 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Recent $1.09 billion zero-coupon funding provides crucial liquidity and runway for Opendoor to execute its strategy and potentially recover. 近期10.9亿美元零息融资为Opendoor提供了关键流动性，支持其战略执行并可能实现复苏。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Earnings and revenue misses, analyst downgrades, and housing headwinds make hitting $4.00 by August 17, 2026, highly improbable. 营收和盈利不及预期、分析师评级下调以及房地产市场逆风，使得到2026年8月17日达到4美元的可能性极低。
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500
#13 · Score 153

HOOD Dip Probability Surges HOOD触及低点概率飙升

73% +15.0%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Robinhood Markets (HOOD) hitting a low of $92.50 by August 17, 2026, increased by 15% to 73%, primarily driven by its stock price trading at $94.38 on August 11, 2026, very close to the target. 罗宾汉市场（HOOD）在2026年8月17日当周触及92.50美元低点的概率上升15%至73%，主要原因是其股价在2026年8月11日交易于94.38美元，非常接近目标价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • HOOD stock at $94.38 on Aug 11, 2026
  • Recent daily price decline of -0.148%
  • Trading below 200-day simple moving average
  • HOOD股价8月11日为94.38美元
  • 近期股价每日下跌0.148%
  • 股价低于200日简单均线
This market indicates investor expectations for short-term volatility and potential downside for Robinhood, impacting trading strategies ahead of the target week. 该市场反映了投资者对罗宾汉短期波动和潜在下行风险的预期，影响目标周前的交易策略。
Vol 24h: $1,236 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 HOOD's current price of $94.38 is very near the $92.50 target, and recent slight declines make a dip highly probable. HOOD当前股价94.38美元非常接近92.50美元目标，近期小幅下跌使触及低点可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 HOOD could find strong support above $92.50, or positive market news might emerge, preventing the stock from hitting the low. HOOD股价可能在92.50美元上方获得强劲支撑，或出现利好消息，阻止其触及该低点。
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500
#14 · Score 150

Hamas Disarmament Hopes Fade 哈马斯解除武装希望渺茫

26% -14.5%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

The probability of Hamas agreeing to disarm by December 31 plummeted by 14.5% to 26% after reports clarified no explicit agreement. Egyptian mediators confirmed Hamas did not officially state an intent to disarm, as highlighted by Algemeiner.com. 哈马斯在12月31日前解除武装的概率暴跌14.5%至26%，此前有报道澄清哈马斯未明确同意。据Algemeiner.com报道，埃及调解员证实哈马斯未正式声明解除武装意向。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Egyptian mediators deny explicit Hamas disarmament agreement.
  • Algemeiner report highlights lack of official Hamas commitment.
  • Previous assumptions of disarmament talks proven premature.
  • 埃及调解员否认哈马斯明确同意解除武装。
  • Algemeiner报告强调哈马斯缺乏官方承诺。
  • 此前解除武装谈判假设被证为时过早。
Hamas disarmament is a key condition for long-term stability in the region and a potential pathway to a lasting peace agreement. Its absence prolongs conflict and uncertainty. 哈马斯解除武装是该地区长期稳定的关键条件，也是实现持久和平协议的潜在途径。其未能实现将延长冲突和不确定性。
Vol 24h: $111,190 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Intense international pressure and a comprehensive ceasefire deal could still compel Hamas to agree to disarm. 强大的国际压力和全面停火协议仍可能促使哈马斯同意解除武装。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Hamas's core ideology and current leadership strongly oppose disarmament, making any agreement highly improbable by year-end. 哈马斯核心意识形态和领导层坚决反对解除武装，年底前协议可能性极低。
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500
#15 · Score 150

Bitcoin Nears $65K, Odds Surge 比特币逼近6.5万美元，概率飙升

79% +14.5%

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in August jumped 14.5% to 79%, driven by its recent trading activity near the $65,000 mark. Reports indicate Bitcoin briefly surpassed this key resistance level earlier this week, boosting market confidence from an earlier 59% probability. 比特币八月达到6.5万美元的概率飙升14.5%至79%，主要受其近期在6.5万美元附近交易的驱动。有报道称比特币本周早些时候曾短暂突破这一关键阻力位，将市场信心从之前的59%推高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin trading near $64,000-$65,000.
  • Reports of Bitcoin briefly breaking $65,000 earlier this week.
  • $65,000 identified as a critical technical resistance level.
  • 比特币近期在6.4万-6.5万美元附近交易。
  • 有报道称比特币本周早些时候短暂突破6.5万美元。
  • 6.5万美元被视为关键技术阻力位。
Reaching $65,000 would confirm renewed buying interest and could establish a stronger bullish trend for Bitcoin throughout August. 达到6.5万美元将确认新的买盘兴趣，并可能为比特币在八月的表现奠定更强的看涨基调。
Vol 24h: $90,265 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's recent breach of $65,000 earlier this week makes reaching the target highly probable for August. 比特币本周早些时候已短暂突破6.5万美元，八月达到该目标极有可能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite recent gains, Bitcoin faces a choppy August and strong resistance, potentially struggling to hold above $65,000. 尽管近期上涨，比特币八月仍面临震荡交易和6.5万美元的强劲阻力，难以企稳。
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500
#16 · Score 148

COIN $135 Low Less Likely COIN跌破135美元可能性降低

29% -14.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 in August?

The probability of Coinbase (COIN) hitting $135 in August decreased by 14.5% to 29%. This shift was primarily driven by market participants interpreting a Blockchain.News report's mention of a ~$150 floor as strong support, making a further drop to $135 less likely. Coinbase (COIN) 在8月触及135美元低点的可能性下降14.5%至29%。这一变化主要受市场解读Blockchain.News报告中提及的约150美元“地板价”为强劲支撑所驱动，使得进一步跌至135美元的可能性减小。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Blockchain.News cited a ~$150 COIN price floor.
  • Market reinforces COIN's $150 support level.
  • Despite earnings misses, $135 target seems less likely.
  • Blockchain.News提及COIN约150美元地板价。
  • 市场强化COIN在150美元的支撑。
  • 尽管财报不佳，跌至135美元可能性减小。
This market indicates investor confidence in COIN's current price levels, suggesting a potential rebound or stabilization above the $135 mark despite recent negative earnings reports. 该市场表明投资者对COIN当前价格水平的信心，暗示尽管近期财报负面，股价仍可能反弹或稳定在135美元上方。
Vol 24h: $1,026 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong support at $150, as identified by Blockchain.News, prevents COIN from dropping to $135. Blockchain.News指出的150美元强劲支撑阻止COIN跌至135美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Consecutive earnings misses and high P/E could still push COIN below $135. 连续财报不及预期和高市盈率仍可能将COIN推至135美元以下。
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500
#17 · Score 128

Gold $4,550 Target Probability Plunges 黄金4550美元目标概率骤降

10% -12.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 17 2026?

Gold's probability of hitting $4,550 by August 17, 2026, dropped 12.5% to 10%, primarily due to a recent price pullback to $4,376-$4,380. This pullback likely followed stronger-than-expected US Core Retail Sales data released on August 14, 2026, strengthening the USD. 黄金在2026年8月17日当周触及4550美元的概率下降了12.5%至10%，主要原因是金价近期回调至4376-4380美元区间。此次回调可能源于2026年8月14日公布的美国核心零售销售数据强于预期，从而提振了美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Gold price pullback to $4,376-$4,380.
  • Stronger-than-expected US Core Retail Sales (Jul).
  • Increased USD strength following economic data.
  • 金价回调至4376-4380美元。
  • 美国7月核心零售销售数据超预期。
  • 经济数据公布后美元走强。
Gold's price movement reflects global economic sentiment and inflation expectations, impacting investor safe-haven demand and currency valuations. 黄金价格走势反映全球经济情绪和通胀预期，影响投资者对避险资产的需求及货币估值。
Vol 24h: $2,377 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent geopolitical tensions or unexpected inflation spikes could drive gold above $4,550 despite recent dips. 持续的地缘政治紧张或意外通胀飙升，可能推动金价突破4550美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger US economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve could further strengthen the USD, capping gold's ascent. 强劲的美国经济数据和美联储鹰派立场，可能进一步支撑美元并限制黄金涨幅。
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500
#18 · Score 128

PLTR $168 Target Gains Traction PLTR 目标价168美元信心增强

76% +12.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Palantir (PLTR) hitting $168 by August 2026 surged by 12.5% to 76%, driven by renewed optimism for AI sector growth. Recent reports like Yahoo Finance's "What a $10,000 Palantir Investment Could Be Worth by 2028" and high Anthropic IPO valuations fueled this confidence. Palantir (PLTR) 在2026年8月前触及168美元低点的可能性上升12.5%至76%，主要受AI行业增长乐观情绪推动。雅虎财经关于“2028年Palantir投资价值”的报道和Anthropic高估值IPO预期提振了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Yahoo Finance's bullish PLTR 2028 investment outlook.
  • Broad AI stock growth predictions before 2026.
  • Anthropic's high projected 2028 revenue and IPO valuation.
  • 雅虎财经看好PLTR 2028年投资前景。
  • 2026年前AI股票普遍增长预测。
  • Anthropic 2028年高营收及IPO估值。
This movement reflects increasing investor confidence in Palantir's long-term growth trajectory within the booming AI market. It suggests a strong belief in the company's ability to capitalize on AI demand. 这一变化反映了投资者对Palantir在蓬勃发展的AI市场中长期增长轨迹的信心增强。它表明市场强烈相信该公司有能力抓住AI需求。
Vol 24h: $1,449 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong AI sector growth and Palantir's expanding government/commercial contracts will drive its valuation past $168 by 2026. 强劲的AI行业增长和Palantir不断扩大的政府/商业合同将推动其估值在2026年前超过168美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense competition, slower-than-expected AI adoption, or a broader market downturn could prevent PLTR from reaching $168. 激烈竞争、AI采用慢于预期或大盘回调可能阻止PLTR达到168美元。
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500
#19 · Score 124

White House Meeting Fuels Bitcoin Rally 白宫会议助推比特币上涨

90% +12.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 22?

The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $62,000 by August 22 surged to 90% (+12.0%) driven by anticipation of a pivotal White House meeting with President Trump and a bullish Fundstrat forecast. 比特币在8月22日前突破62,000美元的概率升至90%（+12.0%），主要受特朗普总统将出席白宫加密会议及Fundstrat看涨预测的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • President Trump to meet crypto executives at White House
  • Fundstrat predicts Bitcoin is "overdue for 30%+ moves"
  • 特朗普总统将与加密高管在白宫会面
  • Fundstrat预测比特币将出现“30%以上涨幅”
This indicates growing political and institutional interest in crypto, potentially leading to clearer regulations and increased mainstream adoption. 这表明加密货币正获得日益增长的政治和机构关注，可能带来更明确的监管和主流采纳。
Vol 24h: $8,577 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 President Trump's meeting with crypto leaders could signal favorable regulatory shifts, attracting significant capital. 特朗普与加密行业领袖会面可能预示利好监管，吸引大量资金流入。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory outcomes from the White House meeting could disappoint, or Fundstrat's bullish forecast may not materialize. 白宫会议的监管结果可能令人失望，或Fundstrat的看涨预测未能实现。
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500
#20 · Score 123

Silver $69 Target Probability Dips 白银69美元目标概率下降

20% -12.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of August 17 2026?

Silver's probability of hitting $69 by August 17, 2026, dropped 12% to 20%. This decline occurred as XAG/USD currently wobbles around $65.40, indicating insufficient immediate momentum despite easing hawkish Fed bets. 白银在2026年8月17日当周触及69美元的概率下降了12%至20%。尽管美联储鹰派押注减弱提振了前景，但XAG/USD目前在65.40美元附近震荡，表明缺乏足够的即时上涨动能。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Silver's current price at $65.40, far from $69 target.
  • "Wobbling" price action shows lack of strong upward momentum.
  • Limited time remaining until the August 17, 2026 deadline.
  • 白银当前价格65.40美元，远低于69美元目标。
  • 价格“震荡”表明缺乏强劲上涨动能。
  • 距离2026年8月17日截止日期时间有限。
This market reflects short-term investor confidence in silver's immediate price trajectory, influenced by macroeconomic factors like Fed policy and current market dynamics. 该市场反映了投资者对白银短期价格走势的信心，受美联储政策和当前市场动态等宏观经济因素影响。
Vol 24h: $3,056 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Easing hawkish Fed bets could rapidly weaken the dollar, sparking a sharp silver rally past $69 this week. 美联储鹰派押注减弱可能迅速削弱美元，本周引发白银价格飙升突破69美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Silver's current $65.40 price and "wobbling" action make a $69 surge by August 17 highly unlikely. 白银当前65.40美元的价格和“震荡”走势，使得8月17日前达到69美元的可能性极低。
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500
#21 · Score 115

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18? Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?

62% +11.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $226,565 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 114

Hormuz Transit Fears Rise 霍尔木兹航运担忧加剧

62% +11.0%

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?

The probability of 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased by 11% to 62%, driven by escalating regional tensions and military activity. Reports of continuous high-tempo deployments by Iran's IRGC Navy fast attack craft are fueling concerns over maritime safety and potential disruptions. 霍尔木兹海峡25-49艘船只通过的概率上升11%至62%，主要受地区紧张局势和军事活动升级驱动。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军快艇持续高强度部署的报道加剧了对海上安全和潜在中断的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IRGC Navy fast attack craft deployments
  • Houthis opening Bab el-Mandeb "second front"
  • Reports of Strait of Hormuz oil flow collapse
  • 伊朗革命卫队海军快艇部署
  • 胡塞武装开辟曼德海峡新战线
  • 霍尔木兹石油流量崩溃报道
Reduced transits in the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact global oil supply chains and escalate geopolitical tensions, affecting energy prices and international trade. 霍尔木兹海峡航运减少可能严重影响全球石油供应链，加剧地缘政治紧张，进而影响能源价格和国际贸易。
Vol 24h: $7,664 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Increased IRGC Navy activity and broader regional instability will deter commercial shipping, pushing transit numbers into the 25-49 range. 伊朗革命卫队活动和地区不稳定将使船只数量降至25-49艘。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite tensions, commercial shipping will maintain higher volumes, or a de-escalation will allow more than 49 transits. 商业航运将保持高运量，或局势缓和使通过船只超过49艘。
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500
#23 · Score 113

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?

32% -11.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,688 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 109

NYC Home Value Range Probability Drops 纽约房价区间概率下降

42% -10.6%

Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?

The probability for NYC median home value to be between $636,000 and $663,000 by September 30 dropped 10.6% to 42%, influenced by recent platform discussions reflecting a 37% probability. 纽约中位数房价在9月30日介于63.6万至66.3万美元之间的概率下降10.6%至42%，受平台讨论中提及37%概率的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Platform discussions showing 37% probability.
  • Increased bearish trading volume.
  • Re-evaluation of NYC housing market trends.
  • 平台讨论显示37%的概率。
  • 看跌交易量显著增加。
  • 市场对纽约楼市趋势重新评估。
This market reflects evolving confidence in NYC's housing stability, a crucial economic indicator for the region. 该市场反映了对纽约房地产稳定性的信心变化，这是该地区重要的经济指标。
Vol 24h: $1,861 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Robust demand and limited supply could stabilize median home values within the target range by September 30. 强劲需求和有限供应可能使中位数房价在9月30日前稳定在目标区间内。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising mortgage rates or an economic downturn could push median values outside the specified range. 抵押贷款利率上升或经济下行可能将中位数房价推至指定区间之外。
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500
#25 · Score 104

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in August? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in August?

36% +10.1%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,182 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 100

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 19? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 19?

98% +9.6%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 19?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $46,098 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 98

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31

30% -9.5%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,627 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 98

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $157.50 Week of August 17 Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $157.50 Week of August 17

43% -9.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $157.50 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,203 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 88

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026?

79% -8.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,885 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#30 · Score 84

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?

50% +8.0%

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,377 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 48

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

8% -4.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $935 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#32 · Score 46

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

28% +4.0%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $621,991 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。