AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 20, 2026 17:40 UTC
#1 · Score 999

Bitcoin Hits $72K: Market Certainty 比特币触及7.2万美元：市场确定

100% +99.4%

Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?

The probability for Bitcoin reaching $72,000 by August 17-23 surged to 100% because Bitcoin's price has already surpassed this threshold. Recent headlines explicitly confirm 'Bitcoin's move above $72,000,' prompting reactions from major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered. 比特币在8月17-23日期间达到7.2万美元的预测概率飙升至100%，因为比特币价格已实际突破此水平。近期新闻头条证实“比特币突破7.2万美元”，引发摩根大通和渣打银行等主要金融机构的关注。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's price already exceeded $72,000.
  • Headline confirms 'Bitcoin's move above $72,000'.
  • Major institutions like JPMorgan react to the rally.
  • 比特币价格已突破7.2万美元。
  • 新闻头条证实“比特币突破7.2万美元”。
  • 摩根大通等主要机构对涨势做出反应。
This market's 100% certainty reflects Bitcoin's current strong price momentum, signaling robust investor confidence. It highlights the immediate and direct impact of real-time price action on prediction market probabilities. 市场的高度确定性反映了比特币强劲的价格势头，可能预示着投资者信心持续。这突显了实时价格走势对预测市场概率的直接影响。
Vol 24h: $144,032 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The probability is already 100% because Bitcoin has already reached $72,000, making the event a certainty within the specified timeframe. 概率已达100%，因比特币已实际触及7.2万美元，事件在规定时间内已成定局。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The probability cannot go lower than 100% as the event has already occurred, solidifying the certainty for the specified period. 概率无法再降低，因事件已发生，100%的确定性已在规定时间内固化。
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500
#2 · Score 975

XRP $1.20 August Target Locked XRP八月目标$1.20已锁定

100% +97.0%

Will XRP reach $1.20 in August?

XRP's probability of reaching $1.20 in August surged to 100% following an 18% daily price rally on August 20 and massive $1.52 billion net inflows into XRP ETFs. This rapid ascent was further bolstered by Bitcoin hitting $71K and an implied positive U.S. Treasury factor. XRP在八月达到$1.20的概率飙升至100%，此前8月20日单日价格上涨18%，且XRP ETF净流入高达15.2亿美元。比特币突破$71K以及隐含的美国财政部积极因素进一步推动了这一涨势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • XRP surged 18% on August 20, approaching $1.20.
  • XRP ETFs saw $1.52 billion net inflows on August 19.
  • Bitcoin reached $71K, boosting crypto market.
  • XRP在8月20日单日飙升18%，逼近$1.20。
  • 8月19日XRP ETF净流入达15.2亿美元。
  • 比特币触及$71K，提振加密市场。
XRP's strong performance and institutional interest highlight growing mainstream acceptance and potential for significant price appreciation in the crypto market. XRP的强劲表现和机构兴趣凸显了加密货币日益增长的主流接受度及其巨大的价格上涨潜力。
Vol 24h: $34,891 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Massive XRP ETF inflows and a strong 18% daily price surge indicate overwhelming buying pressure to breach $1.20. 巨额XRP ETF资金流入和18%的单日涨幅表明强大的买盘将突破$1.20。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the current rally, 'overbought signals' and resistance at $1.20 could lead to a swift correction. 尽管当前上涨，但“超买信号”和$1.20阻力位可能导致快速回调。
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500
#3 · Score 886

Bitcoin Hits $72.5K in August 比特币八月突破72500美元

100% +88.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?

Bitcoin's probability of reaching $72,500 in August surged to 100% as the cryptocurrency officially surpassed this threshold on Thursday. Geopolitical tensions and a significant short squeeze fueled the rapid ascent. 比特币在八月达到72,500美元的概率飙升至100%，因其周四已正式突破此关口。地缘政治紧张局势和大规模空头挤压共同推动了价格的迅速上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price breaking $72,500 (Thursday)
  • $1bn short squeeze sparking 8% rally
  • Bitcoin surpassing $71,000 earlier
  • Iran tensions driving yields higher
  • 比特币突破72,500美元关口（周四）
  • 10亿美元空头挤压引发8%反弹
  • 比特币早前突破71,000美元
  • 伊朗局势紧张推高收益率
This milestone confirms strong bullish momentum for Bitcoin, potentially signaling further upward movement and increased investor confidence in the crypto market. It also highlights the impact of macro-geopolitical events on digital asset valuations. 这一里程碑确认了比特币强劲的看涨势头，可能预示着进一步上涨和加密市场投资者信心的增强。它也突显了宏观地缘政治事件对数字资产估值的影响。
Vol 24h: $485,327 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued geopolitical tensions and sustained institutional interest could drive Bitcoin price further above $72,500. 持续的地缘政治紧张和机构兴趣可能推动比特币价格进一步上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Profit-taking after the rapid rally or easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a price correction below $72,500. 快速上涨后的获利了结或地缘政治紧张缓解可能导致价格回调。
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500
#4 · Score 856

Trump's Clarity Act Boosts XRP Outlook 特朗普呼吁通过《清晰法案》提振XRP

88% +85.2%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on August 21?

XRP's probability of exceeding $1.20 by August 21 surged by 85.2% following former President Trump's call for Congress to pass the Clarity Act. This political development significantly improved prospects for regulatory certainty, driving the price target towards $1.20. 随着前总统特朗普呼吁国会通过《清晰法案》，XRP在8月21日前突破1.20美元的概率飙升85.2%。这一政治进展显著改善了监管确定性前景，推动价格目标走向1.20美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump urges Congress to pass Clarity Act.
  • Whale activity shows increased accumulation.
  • Coinpedia flags $1.14 and $1.20 as next targets.
  • 特朗普敦促国会通过《清晰法案》。
  • 鲸鱼活动显示出增加的积累。
  • Coinpedia将1.14美元和1.20美元标记为下一目标。
Regulatory clarity is crucial for XRP's long-term adoption and institutional investment. A favorable legal framework could unlock significant growth potential for the asset. 监管清晰度对XRP的长期采用和机构投资至关重要。有利的法律框架可以释放该资产的巨大增长潜力。
Vol 24h: $59,740 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump's push for the Clarity Act could provide much-needed regulatory certainty, driving XRP above $1.20. 特朗普推动《清晰法案》有望带来监管确定性，推动XRP突破1.20美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Institutional demand remains weak, and any delay in the Clarity Act could see XRP struggle to maintain $1.20. 机构需求依然疲软，若《清晰法案》延迟，XRP恐难维持1.20美元。
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500
#5 · Score 810

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21? Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?

94% +80.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $49,869 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 728

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August? Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

93% +72.4%

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

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Vol 24h: $16,870 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 674

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 17 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +67.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $25,475 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 664

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 20? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 20?

0% -66.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $30,477 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 609

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 17 2026? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +60.6%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,429 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 597

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of August 17 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +59.5%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $687 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 573

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of August 17 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +57.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,780 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 539

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23? Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?

57% +53.4%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?

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Vol 24h: $51,955 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 533

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?

60% +52.8%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?

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Vol 24h: $97,473 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 488

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 20? Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 20?

98% +48.4%

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $5,236 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 470

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 20? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 20?

8% -46.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $52,653 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 459

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?

8% -45.5%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $13,747 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 430

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

100% +42.4%

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $628,380 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 423

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 20? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 20?

8% -42.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $1,047 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 422

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 17 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +41.9%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $822 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#20 · Score 418

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August

12% -41.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $894 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 398

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 20? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 20?

10% -39.5%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $1,095 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 360

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?

5% -35.6%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?

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Vol 24h: $3,487 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 346

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24?

95% +34.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24?

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Vol 24h: $28,184 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 334

Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

76% +33.0%

Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $5,532 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 327

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?

59% +32.5%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $576 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 298

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $490 on August 20? Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $490 on August 20?

3% -29.5%

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $490 on August 20?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $850 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#27 · Score 278

Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026? Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?

42% -27.5%

Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $904 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 269

Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

43% +26.5%

Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $23,242 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 254

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on August 20? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on August 20?

25% -25.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on August 20?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,766 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 253

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of August 17 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of August 17 2026?

8% -25.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $605 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 163

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?

56% -16.0%

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,796 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 69

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

14% -6.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,591 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。