AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 10, 2026 10:37 UTC
#1 · Score 474

Bitcoin Down Probability Surges 比特币上涨概率骤降

2% -47.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET


The probability of Bitcoin being up by August 10, 5 AM ET, plummeted to 2% from 49% in 24 hours. This sharp decline is primarily driven by technical indicators suggesting an imminent price pullback. 截至8月10日凌晨5点,比特币上涨的概率在24小时内从49%暴跌至2%。此次急剧下降主要受技术指标预示价格回调驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Technical indicators (RSI, CCI) signal overbought conditions.
  • Bitcoin's consolidation between $64K-$65.5K suggests limited upside.
  • Anticipation of July inflation data fosters short-term caution.
  • RSI和CCI超买,预示价格可能回调。
  • 比特币在$64K-$65.5K区间盘整,上涨空间有限。
  • 市场对7月通胀数据持谨慎态度。
This market reflects immediate investor sentiment and technical analysis impact on Bitcoin's short-term price action. A significant drop in "up" probability indicates strong bearish pressure for the very near term. 该市场反映了投资者情绪和技术分析对比特币短期价格走势的影响。上涨概率大幅下降表明短期内存在强烈的看跌压力。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite technical warnings, Bitcoin recently broke $65,000, suggesting underlying strength for a potential late surge. 尽管技术面有警告,比特币近期突破$65,000,显示潜在上涨动力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Overbought RSI/CCI and consolidation strongly indicate an imminent pullback, pushing Bitcoin down by 5 AM ET. RSI/CCI超买和盘整强烈预示回调,推动比特币在5点前下跌。

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500
#2 · Score 459

WTI Oil Price Drops Below $82 WTI油价跌破82美元

4% -45.6%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 10?


The probability of WTI crude closing above $82 on August 10th plummeted as actual trading prices remained well below the threshold. WTI was reported at $78.71/barrel on August 10th, reinforcing analyst forecasts for a $72-$78 range. WTI原油在8月10日收盘高于82美元的可能性大幅下降,因为实际交易价格远低于该门槛。8月10日WTI油价报78.71美元/桶,与分析师预测的72-78美元区间一致。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI trading at $78.71/barrel on August 10.
  • Analyst forecasts placing WTI in $72-$78 range.
  • Relative stability of WTI prices below $82.
  • 8月10日WTI油价报78.71美元/桶。
  • 分析师预测WTI将在72-78美元区间。
  • WTI价格在82美元以下相对稳定。
Oil prices significantly impact global inflation, consumer spending, and energy sector profitability. A sustained lower price could ease economic pressures. 油价显著影响全球通胀、消费者支出和能源行业利润。持续较低的油价可能缓解经济压力。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Geopolitical tensions escalate sharply, or unexpected supply disruptions occur, driving WTI above $82. 地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级或意外供应中断,推动WTI突破82美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Global demand weakens further, or OPEC+ increases supply, keeping WTI well below $82. 全球需求进一步疲软,或欧佩克+增产,使WTI远低于82美元。

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500
#3 · Score 299

Bitcoin Up Probability Plunges 比特币上涨概率骤降

20% -29.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET


The probability of Bitcoin rising between 4:00 AM and 8:00 AM ET on August 10th plummeted by 29.5% to 20%. This sharp decline was primarily driven by a prevailing bearish technical outlook, specifically the observation that Bitcoin's price remains below a falling 200-day Exponential Moving Average. 比特币在8月10日美国东部时间凌晨4点至8点上涨的概率骤降29.5%至20%。这一急剧下降主要受普遍看跌的技术前景驱动,特别是比特币价格仍低于下跌的200日指数移动平均线。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BTC price below falling 200 EMA, indicating downtrend.
  • Bitcoin steady near $64,350, lacking upward momentum.
  • 比特币价格低于下跌的200日EMA,预示下行趋势。
  • 比特币稳定在$64,350附近,缺乏上涨动能。
This movement highlights the dominance of technical indicators in short-term crypto prediction markets. It shows the market is prioritizing trend analysis over fundamental developments for immediate price action. 这一走势凸显了技术指标在短期加密货币预测市场中的主导地位。它表明市场目前更看重趋势分析而非基本面发展来判断即时价格走势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bluebird Mining Ventures' new recurring Bitcoin streaming income signals growing institutional adoption, potentially providing a short-term price floor. 蓝鸟矿业新比特币流媒体收入预示机构采用增加,或为比特币提供短期价格支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's price remains below a falling 200 EMA, indicating a persistent higher timeframe downtrend and strong technical resistance. 比特币价格仍低于下跌的200日EMA,表明长期下行趋势和强劲技术阻力。

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500
#4 · Score 274

Hormuz Deal Hits US Snag 霍尔木兹协议受阻美国条件

32% -27.0%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?


The probability for an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by August 15 dropped 27% to 32% after Iran stated on August 8 that while a deal is close, its reopening of the Strait depends on U.S. conditions. This crucial caveat introduced significant uncertainty regarding a timely resolution. 伊朗与阿曼在8月15日前达成霍尔木兹协议的概率下降27%至32%,因伊朗8月8日声明协议虽接近但其开放霍尔木兹海峡取决于美国条件。这一关键附加条件为及时达成协议带来了显著不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran links Hormuz deal to U.S. conditions.
  • U.S. conditions create uncertainty for August 15 deadline.
  • External factors complicate timely agreement.
  • 伊朗将霍尔木兹协议与美国条件挂钩。
  • 美国条件增加了8月15日前达成协议的不确定性。
  • 外部因素使及时达成协议复杂化。
A formal agreement would stabilize oil shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy markets and regional security dynamics. 正式协议将稳定通过关键霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输,影响全球能源市场和地区安全。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran and Oman finalize an agreement by August 15, with U.S. conditions met or bypassed. 伊朗与阿曼在8月15日前达成协议,美国条件得到满足或规避。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 U.S. conditions prove insurmountable by August 15, delaying or derailing the agreement. 美国条件在8月15日前无法满足,导致协议推迟或破裂。

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500
#5 · Score 269

Oil Surges Past $100 油价突破100美元

84% +26.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of August 10 2026?


The probability of WTI hitting $80 by August 10, 2026, surged to 84% as recent reports indicate crude oil prices are already trading above $100/bbl on that date. This suggests the target price has already been met and surpassed, driving the significant probability increase. WTI原油在2026年8月10日当周触及80美元的可能性飙升至84%,因最新报道显示,届时原油价格已超过100美元/桶。这表明目标价格已被达到并超越,从而推动了概率的显著上升。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Crude oil trading at $101.85/bbl on August 10, 2026.
  • Ongoing geopolitical concerns regarding Strait of Hormuz.
  • Citi lifting its near-term Brent crude price outlook.
  • Global oil prices reportedly rising on August 10, 2026.
  • 2026年8月10日原油价格已达101.85美元/桶。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡地缘政治担忧持续存在。
  • 花旗上调近期布伦特原油价格展望。
  • 据报道2026年8月10日全球油价上涨。
Sustained high oil prices could fuel global inflation, impact consumer spending, and influence central bank monetary policies worldwide. This has broad implications for economic stability. 持续高油价可能加剧全球通胀,影响消费者支出,并左右各国央行货币政策。这对全球经济稳定具有广泛影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Crude oil prices are already trading significantly above $80/bbl on the target date, making the 'hit $80' condition highly probable. 目标日期原油价格已远超80美元/桶,使得“触及80美元”的条件极有可能实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden resolution of geopolitical tensions or a sharp global economic downturn could significantly depress oil demand and prices. 地缘政治紧张局势突然缓解或全球经济急剧下滑可能显著抑制石油需求和价格。

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500
#6 · Score 265

Hormuz Deal Nears, Extension Odds Drop 霍尔木兹协议临近,延期概率骤降

30% -26.0%

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?


The probability of a US-Iran 60-day negotiation extension plummeted by 26% to 30% as reports indicate a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping deal is nearing completion or being restated. News from Axios and i24NEWS suggests an agreement is imminent, reducing the need for further talks. 美国与伊朗60天谈判延期的可能性骤降26%至30%,因有报道称霍尔木兹海峡临时航运协议即将达成或正在重申。Axios和i24NEWS的消息表明协议即将签署,减少了进一步谈判的必要性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S. nears Hormuz deal, aiming for Wednesday announcement.
  • Iran, Oman near temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping deal.
  • Restating 60-day MoU Deal framework for shipping.
  • Ceasefire deal signed, reducing conflict uncertainty.
  • 美国霍尔木兹协议临近,目标周三宣布。
  • 伊朗、阿曼接近达成霍尔木兹航运协议。
  • 重申60天谅解备忘录框架。
  • 停火协议签署,降低冲突不确定性。
Resolution of the Strait of Hormuz issue is vital for global oil markets and regional stability, directly impacting energy prices and geopolitical tensions. 霍尔木兹海峡问题的解决对全球石油市场和地区稳定至关重要,直接影响能源价格和地缘政治紧张局势。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's dramatic new demands could derail the nearing deal, forcing an extension of the negotiation period. 伊朗提出的新要求可能导致协议破裂,迫使谈判期延长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Reports of a nearing Hormuz deal and restating the 60-day MoU suggest an agreement is imminent, negating extension. 霍尔木兹协议临近且60天谅解备忘录重申,表明协议即将达成,无需延期。

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500
#7 · Score 257

Houthi Aug 5 Target Probability Dips 胡塞8月5日袭击概率骤降

1% -25.2%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?


The probability for Houthis successfully targeting shipping on August 5, 2026, plummeted to 1%, driven by the absence of specific confirmation for such an event on that precise date. Despite headlines reporting general Houthi escalation and attacks around August 2-6, 2026, none confirmed a successful strike specifically on August 5. 胡塞武装于2026年8月5日成功袭击航运的概率骤降至1%,主要原因是缺乏针对该具体日期的袭击成功确认。尽管头条新闻报道了8月2日至6日期间胡塞武装的普遍升级和袭击,但没有一条证实8月5日当天有成功袭击。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No confirmed Houthi strike on August 5, 2026.
  • Headlines lack specific date for successful attacks.
  • Market resolves on precise date, not general activity.
  • 未确认胡塞武装8月5日成功袭击。
  • 新闻缺乏成功袭击的具体日期。
  • 市场关注精确日期而非普遍活动。
This market reflects the precision required in geopolitical event prediction and how specific date criteria can override general conflict trends. It highlights the difficulty in confirming specific events amidst broader regional instability. 该市场反映了地缘政治事件预测所需的精确性,以及具体日期标准如何超越普遍冲突趋势。它突显了在更广泛的地区不稳定中确认特定事件的难度。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New intelligence emerges confirming a successful Houthi strike on August 5, 2026, meeting market criteria. 新情报证实胡塞武装于2026年8月5日成功袭击,符合市场标准。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued lack of specific evidence for a successful Houthi attack on August 5, 2026, solidifies market belief. 持续缺乏胡塞武装于2026年8月5日成功袭击的具体证据。

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500
#8 · Score 249

WTI Oil Price Surges Up 油价飙升,WTI看涨

84% +24.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 10?


The probability of WTI Crude Oil closing up on August 10 surged to 84% after reports indicated West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery rose 0.8% to $77.91. This bullish shift occurred despite conflicting news regarding Middle East tensions. WTI原油在8月10日收涨的概率飙升至84%,此前有报道称西德克萨斯中质原油9月期货上涨0.8%至77.91美元。尽管中东局势存在矛盾消息,但市场仍出现看涨转变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI September futures rose 0.8% to $77.91.
  • Brent crude benchmark increased 1.1% to $83.4.
  • Iran's 'Hormuz Demands' signal geopolitical risk.
  • WTI 9月期货上涨0.8%至77.91美元。
  • 布伦特原油基准上涨1.1%至83.4美元。
  • 伊朗“霍尔木兹要求”维持地缘政治风险。
Global oil prices impact inflation, transportation costs, and industrial production, influencing economic stability and consumer spending worldwide. 全球油价影响通货膨胀、运输成本和工业生产,进而影响全球经济稳定和消费者支出。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 WTI and Brent crude futures are already showing upward momentum, indicating strong near-term demand and price support. WTI和布伦特原油期货已显示上涨势头,表明近期需求强劲且价格有支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Reports of easing Middle East tensions and a deal on new shipping lanes could reduce oil's geopolitical risk premium. 中东局势缓和及新航运通道协议可能降低原油地缘政治风险溢价。

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500
#9 · Score 204

Canada GDP Outlook Improves 加拿大GDP前景改善

52% +20.0%

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?


The probability for Canada's June 2026 MoM GDP growth to be between 0.2% and 0.3% surged by 20% to 52%, driven by recent data showing a rebound in May 2026 GDP. May's GDP grew by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in April, indicating positive momentum. 加拿大2026年6月GDP月增长率介于0.2%至0.3%的概率飙升20%至52%,主要受2026年5月GDP反弹数据驱动。5月GDP在4月下降0.1%后增长了0.1%,显示出积极势头。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • May 2026 GDP grew 0.1% MoM
  • Rebound from April's 0.1% decline
  • Economic resilience despite Iran war
  • 2026年5月GDP月增0.1%
  • 从4月0.1%跌幅中反弹
  • 伊朗战争影响下经济韧性
This forecast is crucial for understanding Canada's economic health, influencing monetary policy decisions and investment strategies. 此预测对理解加拿大经济健康至关重要,影响货币政策决策和投资策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger-than-expected economic momentum from May 2026 could continue, pushing June's GDP growth into the target range. 2026年5月强劲经济势头可能延续,推动6月GDP增长进入目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Global headwinds or domestic factors could dampen the recent growth, causing June's GDP to fall below 0.2%. 全球逆风或国内因素可能抑制近期增长,导致6月GDP低于0.2%。

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500
#10 · Score 199

Bitcoin Anchored: $64K-$66K Range Solidifies 比特币锚定:6.4万-6.6万美元区间巩固

94% +19.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 10?


Bitcoin's probability of trading between $64,000 and $66,000 by August 10 surged by 19.5% to 94%, driven by strong technical indicators and whale accumulation. Recent analysis highlights a high-volume node within this specific range, reinforcing its stability. 比特币在8月10日价格维持在6.4万至6.6万美元区间的可能性飙升19.5%至94%,主要受强劲技术指标和巨鲸增持驱动。近期分析指出,该特定区间已形成高交易量节点,增强了其稳定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • High-volume node established at $64,000-$66,000.
  • Bitcoin holding $64,000 support despite $626M inflows.
  • Whales accumulated over $127M in BTC.
  • Consolidation phase with higher short-term lows.
  • 6.4万-6.6万美元形成高交易量节点。
  • 比特币守住6.4万美元支撑位,尽管有6.26亿美元资金流入。
  • 巨鲸增持超过1.27亿美元比特币。
  • 短期低点抬升,处于盘整期。
This market reflects increasing confidence in Bitcoin's short-term price stability, potentially signaling a period of accumulation before a larger directional move. 该市场反映出对短期比特币价格稳定性的信心增强,可能预示着在更大行情到来前的积累期。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The identified high-volume node between $64,000 and $66,000, reinforced by whale accumulation, strongly anchors Bitcoin's price. 6.4万至6.6万美元的高交易量节点,加上巨鲸增持,牢固锚定比特币价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sustained move above $66,000 with increased volume could break the current consolidation, leading to higher price targets. 若比特币价格带量突破6.6万美元,可能打破当前盘整,走向更高目标位。

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500
#11 · Score 186

Iran Standoff Deepens, Blockade End Unlikely 伊朗僵局加剧,解除封锁前景黯淡

12% -18.0%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?


The probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026, dropped significantly to 12% following Iran's firm stance. Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US meets its demands, directly contradicting prospects for an imminent US announcement. 美国宣布解除对伊朗封锁的概率大幅降至12%,此前伊朗立场强硬。伊朗誓言除非美国满足其要求,否则将继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡,直接与美国即将宣布解除封锁的可能性相悖。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed until US meets demands.
  • Iran ties Hormuz reopening directly to US concessions.
  • US seeks deal on strait first, no comment on Iran's new demands.
  • 伊朗誓言除非美国满足要求,否则关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 伊朗将霍尔木兹海峡重开与美国让步直接挂钩。
  • 美国坚持先达成海峡协议,未回应伊朗新要求。
The ongoing blockade and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz significantly impact global oil prices and maritime trade, posing a risk to international stability. 霍尔木兹海峡的持续封锁和紧张局势严重影响全球油价和海上贸易,对国际稳定构成风险。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 US makes unexpected concessions to Iran, leading to a swift deal and announcement. 美国意外对伊朗做出让步,迅速达成协议并宣布。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran's demands remain unmet, and the US-Iran standoff continues without resolution. 伊朗要求未获满足,美伊僵局持续无解。

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500
#12 · Score 185

Ethereum Up Probability Drops 以太坊上涨概率下降

32% -18.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?


The probability of Ethereum being up on August 10 decreased by 18% in 24 hours, primarily driven by macro headwinds. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar have reduced institutional demand for ETH. 以太坊在8月10日上涨的概率在24小时内下降了18%,主要受宏观逆风影响。美国国债收益率上升和美元走强抑制了机构对ETH的需求。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rising US Treasury yields
  • Stronger US dollar
  • Reduced institutional demand for ETH
  • 美国国债收益率上升
  • 美元走强
  • 机构对ETH需求减少
This movement reflects how broader macroeconomic factors, particularly US monetary policy expectations, significantly influence short-term crypto market sentiment and institutional investment. 这一变化反映了宏观经济因素,特别是美国货币政策预期,如何显著影响短期加密市场情绪和机构投资。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A weaker US jobs report could prompt a dovish Fed, boosting risk assets like ETH, which shows short-term resilience. 弱于预期的美国就业报告可能促使美联储鸽派,提振ETH等风险资产。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are creating macro headwinds, reducing institutional demand for Ethereum. 国债收益率上升和美元走强形成宏观逆风,降低了机构对以太坊的需求。

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500
#13 · Score 179

XRP Probability Plunges on Regulatory Delay XRP监管延迟,价格预测概率大跌

67% -17.5%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?


The probability of XRP staying above $1.00 by August 14 dropped 17.5% to 67% as the Senate delayed a Crypto Clarity Bill. This regulatory uncertainty, coupled with XRP's price nearing critical $1.00 support at $1.02, fueled sell-off fears. XRP在8月14日保持在1美元以上的概率下跌17.5%至67%,主要原因是参议院推迟了加密货币澄清法案。这一监管不确定性,加上XRP价格逼近1.02美元的关键支撑位,加剧了市场抛售担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Senate delays Crypto Clarity Bill
  • XRP price nears critical $1.00 support at $1.02
  • High leverage (6:1) and fund inflow collapse
  • 参议院推迟加密货币澄清法案
  • XRP价格逼近1.00美元关键支撑
  • 高杠杆交易及资金流入枯竭
The market reflects growing investor anxiety over regulatory progress and XRP's technical stability. A sustained break below $1.00 could trigger significant liquidations due to high leverage. 市场反映投资者对监管进展和XRP技术稳定性的担忧。若持续跌破1美元,高杠杆可能引发大量清算。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 XRP could rebound if the Senate provides positive regulatory updates or if institutional ETF inflows recover, pushing it above $1.05. 若参议院提供积极监管消息或ETF资金流入恢复,XRP有望反弹至1.05美元上方。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued regulatory delays and a break below $1.00 support could trigger a cascade of leveraged liquidations, driving prices lower. 监管持续延迟且跌破1美元支撑,可能引发杠杆清算潮,进一步压低价格。

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500
#14 · Score 153

Silver $62 Low Less Likely 白银跌至62美元可能性降低

46% -15.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of August 10 2026?


Silver's probability of hitting a $62 low by August 10, 2026, dropped 15% to 46% as XAG/USD trades flat near $63.50. This shift reflects market positioning ahead of the looming US CPI data, suggesting reduced conviction for a sharp price drop. 白银在2026年8月10日当周触及62美元低点的可能性下降15%至46%,因XAG/USD在63.50美元附近持平。这一变化反映了市场在美国CPI数据公布前的仓位调整,暗示市场对白银大幅下跌的信心减弱。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Silver (XAG/USD) trading flat near $63.50.
  • Market positioning ahead of US CPI data.
  • Lack of immediate bearish catalysts for silver.
  • 白银(XAG/USD)在63.50美元附近持平。
  • 市场在美国CPI数据公布前的仓位调整。
  • 白银缺乏即时利空催化剂。
Silver's price trajectory is a key indicator of inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, impacting investment strategies and industrial costs. The CPI data will significantly influence Fed policy and broader market sentiment. 白银价格走势是通胀预期和避险需求的关键指标,影响投资策略和工业成本。CPI数据将显著影响美联储政策和更广泛的市场情绪。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A higher-than-expected US CPI report could strengthen the dollar and raise rate hike expectations, pushing silver below $62. 若美国CPI数据高于预期,可能提振美元并增加加息预期,从而将白银价格推至62美元以下。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A lower-than-expected US CPI report could weaken the dollar, supporting silver prices above $62. 若美国CPI数据低于预期,可能削弱美元,支撑白银价格保持在62美元上方。

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500
#15 · Score 145

XRP Range Probability Plunges XRP区间概率骤降

2% -14.1%

Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 10?


The probability of XRP being between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 10 plummeted by 14.1% to 2%, driven by expectations that XRP will either hold above $1.00 or fall rapidly below $0.90 if support breaks. Recent headlines indicate XRP is trading around $1.03-$1.07, with $1.00 as key support. XRP在8月10日价格介于0.90美元至1.00美元之间的概率骤降14.1%至2%,主要因市场预期XRP将保持在1.00美元上方,或若支撑位失守则迅速跌破0.90美元。近期新闻显示XRP交易价在1.03-1.07美元,1.00美元是关键支撑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • XRP holding above $1.00, with current prices at $1.03-$1.07.
  • Risk of rapid fall below $0.90 if $1.00 support fails, triggering stop-loss cascades.
  • Collapsing XRP ETF inflows in July, closing at $27.29M, signaling bearish pressure.
  • XRP维持在1.00美元上方,当前价格为1.03-1.07美元。
  • 若1.00美元支撑位失守,止损盘将触发,XRP可能迅速跌破0.90美元。
  • 7月份XRP ETF资金流入锐减至2729万美元,显示看跌压力。
This movement reflects increased market conviction that XRP will not settle within the $0.90-$1.00 range, indicating higher volatility or stronger price direction. 这一变化反映市场更确信XRP不会稳定在0.90-1.00美元区间,预示着更高的波动性或更强的价格方向。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 XRP holds $1.00 support, recovering to $1.05-$1.06, staying above the target range. XRP守住1.00美元支撑,反弹至1.05-1.06美元,保持在目标区间之上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 XRP breaks $1.00, triggering stop-loss cascades and falling below $0.90 due to weak ETF flows. XRP跌破1.00美元,触发止损并因ETF资金流弱而跌破0.90美元。

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500
#16 · Score 145

Bitcoin Up Probability Dips 比特币上涨概率下降

36% -14.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?


The probability of Bitcoin being up on August 10 dropped 14% as BTC consolidates between $64,000 and $65,500. Overbought RSI and CCI indicators suggest a likely pause or shallow pullback after hitting a new August high. 比特币在8月10日上涨的概率下降了14%,因其在6.4万至6.55万美元区间盘整。超买的RSI和CCI指标预示在触及8月新高后可能出现暂停或小幅回调。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin consolidating between $64,000 and $65,500.
  • Overbought RSI and CCI indicating a likely pause.
  • Market facing technical resistance levels.
  • 比特币在6.4万至6.55万美元区间盘整。
  • RSI和CCI超买预示可能暂停上涨。
  • 市场面临技术阻力位。
This movement reflects short-term investor caution following a recent rally, potentially signaling a period of price discovery or correction. It impacts immediate trading strategies. 这一走势反映了近期上涨后投资者的短期谨慎情绪,可能预示着价格发现或调整期。它影响即时交易策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Positive ETF flows and continued reaction to weakening US jobs data could push Bitcoin higher. 积极的ETF资金流入和美国就业数据疲软的持续影响可能推动比特币上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Overbought technical indicators and strong resistance levels suggest a likely price pullback or consolidation. 超买的技术指标和强劲阻力位预示价格可能回调或盘整。

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500
#17 · Score 128

TSLA Low $307.50 Probability Drops 特斯拉触及307.50美元低点概率下降

16% -12.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $307.50 Week of August 10 2026?


The probability of TSLA hitting a low of $307.50 by August 10, 2026, decreased by 12.5% to 16%, primarily driven by trader expectations of strong technical support near $320. This outlook is further reinforced by options market data. 特斯拉在2026年8月10日当周触及307.50美元低点的概率下降12.5%至16%,主要受交易员预期股价在320美元附近有强劲技术支撑驱动。期权市场数据也进一步印证了这一看法。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Traders anticipate strong technical support near $320.
  • Low premium ($0.084) for 8/10/2026 $307.50 put options.
  • Increased implied volatility (+3.68%) for 8/10/2026 $305.00 call options.
  • 交易员预期股价在320美元附近有强劲技术支撑。
  • 2026年8月10日307.50美元看跌期权溢价极低(0.084美元)。
  • 2026年8月10日305.00美元看涨期权隐含波动率上升(+3.68%)。
This shift reflects an evolving trader outlook on TSLA's future valuation and potential downside risk, indicating less concern about a significant price drop to that level. 这一变化反映了交易员对特斯拉未来估值和潜在下行风险看法的演变,表明对股价大幅跌至该水平的担忧减少。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Anticipated strong technical support near $320 makes a drop to $307.50 unlikely, reinforcing current price levels. 320美元附近预计有强劲技术支撑,使得股价跌至307.50美元的可能性降低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen negative company news or broader market corrections could still push TSLA below $307.50. 突发负面公司消息或大盘回调仍可能将特斯拉股价推至307.50美元以下。

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500
#18 · Score 123

RKLB Surges on Earnings Hopes & Space Force Deals RKLB因财报预期与太空军合同上涨

82% +12.0%

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on August 10?


The probability of Rocket Lab (RKLB) being up on August 10 rose 12.0% to 82%, primarily driven by strong anticipation for its Q2 2026 earnings report and recent major contract wins. Wall Street expects $232 million revenue and 60% growth, alongside new U.S. Space Force deals. Rocket Lab (RKLB) 在8月10日上涨的概率上升12.0%至82%,主要受市场对其2026年第二季度财报的强烈预期及近期重大合同驱动。华尔街预计营收将达2.32亿美元,增长60%,且公司获得了美国太空军的新合同。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipation of strong Q2 2026 earnings report.
  • Wall Street expects $232M revenue and 60% growth.
  • New major contracts with U.S. Space Force.
  • Analysts see 49% upside for the stock.
  • 市场对强劲2026年Q2财报的预期。
  • 华尔街预计营收2.32亿美元,增长60%。
  • 获得美国太空军重大新合同。
  • 分析师预计股价有49%上涨空间。
This movement reflects investor confidence in Rocket Lab's growth trajectory and its ability to secure significant government contracts, crucial for space industry players. Strong earnings could validate its market position. 这一走势反映了投资者对Rocket Lab增长轨迹及其获得重要政府合同能力的信心,这对于航天业公司至关重要。强劲的财报将验证其市场地位。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q2 2026 earnings expectations and recent U.S. Space Force contracts will drive RKLB stock up. 强劲的2026年Q2财报预期和美国太空军合同将推动RKLB股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High analyst expectations for Q2 2026 earnings could lead to a sell-off if results disappoint. 若2026年Q2财报不及分析师高预期,可能导致股价抛售。

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500
#19 · Score 100

US-China Tariff Deal Hopes Rise 中美关税协议希望升温

15% +9.8%

US x China tariff agreement by August 31?


The probability for a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 increased to 15% following a general softening of US tariff policy. The US announced a 90-day pause on higher country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs, signaling a potential de-escalation. 截至8月31日中美关税协议达成概率升至15%,主要受美国关税政策普遍软化驱动。美国宣布暂停90天提高特定国家“对等”关税,预示潜在的降级。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs
  • US-EU generic drug tariff agreement precedent
  • Canada's offer for tariff relief
  • 美国暂停90天“对等”关税
  • 美欧通用药关税协议开先例
  • 加拿大为关税减免提条件
A US-China tariff agreement would significantly stabilize global trade, reduce supply chain uncertainties, and potentially ease inflationary pressures. It could also improve broader geopolitical relations. 中美关税协议将显著稳定全球贸易,减少供应链不确定性,并可能缓解通胀压力。它还有助于改善更广泛的地缘政治关系。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The US's general pause on reciprocal tariffs and successful tariff deals with EU/Canada suggest a path for a US-China agreement. 美国暂停对等关税及与欧盟/加拿大达成协议,预示中美协议有路径。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 No direct US-China tariff negotiation news, coupled with existing geopolitical tensions, makes a quick agreement unlikely. 缺乏中美直接谈判消息,加上地缘政治紧张,短期内达成协议可能性低。

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500
#20 · Score 95

Hormuz Normalization Hopes Decline 霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常希望下降

48% -9.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?


The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 decreased by 9% to 48%. This decline is driven by Iran's internal financial issues and the escalating standoff with the U.S. and Gulf states over transit fees. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在12月31日前恢复正常的可能性下降9%至48%。这一下降主要受伊朗内部财政问题以及与美国及海湾国家在过境费问题上的僵局加剧驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran blocks National Oil Company accounts
  • US/Gulf states reject Iran's Strait fee demands
  • Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions
  • 伊朗冻结国家石油公司账户
  • 美海湾国家拒绝伊朗过境费
  • 美伊地缘政治紧张局势升级
Normalizing Hormuz traffic is vital for global oil supply, prices, and regional stability, impacting the world economy. 霍尔木兹海峡交通正常化对全球石油供应、价格及地区稳定至关重要,影响世界经济。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Diplomatic efforts succeed in resolving transit fee disputes and security concerns, allowing normal traffic. 外交努力成功解决过境费和安全问题,恢复正常航运。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran's internal financial woes or regional geopolitical tensions escalate, further disrupting shipping. 伊朗内部财政困境或地区紧张局势升级,进一步扰乱航运。

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500
#21 · Score 95

US-Iran Meeting Hopes Dim Amid Denials 美伊会谈前景因否认而黯淡

56% -9.0%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?


The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026, dropped 9.0% to 56%, primarily driven by Iran's direct denial of Trump's claim that negotiations were set to begin. This denial, coupled with escalating rhetoric and regional tensions, dampened prospects for immediate talks. 截至2026年9月30日,美伊外交会谈的可能性下降9.0%至56%,主要原因是伊朗直接否认特朗普关于谈判即将开始的说法。这一否认,加上不断升级的言论和地区紧张局势,削弱了立即会谈的前景。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran denies Trump's claim of immediate US-Iran negotiations.
  • Trump's "decapitation" threat and "hard hit" rhetoric escalate tensions.
  • Unclear status of agreements involving Iranian negotiators.
  • Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers increase regional instability.
  • 伊朗否认特朗普关于美伊谈判即将开始的说法。
  • 特朗普“斩首”威胁及“重击”言论加剧紧张。
  • 伊朗谈判代表协议状态不明朗。
  • 胡塞武装袭击沙特油轮加剧地区不稳定。
A diplomatic meeting could de-escalate regional tensions, impact global oil markets, and potentially alter the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. 外交会谈可能缓和地区紧张局势,影响全球石油市场,并可能改变中东地缘政治格局。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation efforts, possibly through intermediaries like Oman, could still lead to a meeting to avoid further conflict. 通过阿曼等中间方的斡旋努力,为避免进一步冲突仍可能促成会谈。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued escalatory rhetoric from both sides and lack of clear progress on agreements will prevent a diplomatic meeting. 双方持续的升级言论及协议进展不明,将阻碍外交会谈的实现。

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500
#22 · Score 92

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2

45% +8.8%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#23 · Score 84

US July Inflation: 3.3% Odds Rise 美国7月通胀3.3%?

40% +8.0%

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?


The probability of annual US inflation hitting 3.3% in July rose 8% to 40% following analyses suggesting a modest cooling. CryptoSlate and TD Securities both indicated July CPI-U or core CPI would likely be around 3.3%. 7月美国年通胀率达到3.3%的概率上升8%至40%,此前分析表明通胀将温和降温。CryptoSlate和TD Securities均指出7月CPI-U或核心CPI可能在3.3%左右。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CryptoSlate implies July US CPI-U most likely 3.3% or 3.4%.
  • TD Securities forecasts US annual core CPI near 3.3% for July.
  • CryptoSlate:7月美CPI-U或3.3%。
  • TD Securities:7月美核心CPI近3.3%。
This specific inflation figure is critical for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and broader economic stability. It signals the pace of disinflation. 这一具体的通胀数据对美联储的利率决策和更广泛的经济稳定至关重要,它预示着通胀下降的速度。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Upcoming US CPI data confirms TD Securities' forecast, showing annual core inflation near 3.3% for July. 美CPI证实TD预测,7月核心通胀近3.3%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 July US CPI deviates significantly from 3.3%, either higher due to price pressures or lower from rapid disinflation. 7月美国CPI显著偏离3.3%,或高或低。

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500
#24 · Score 82

Kuwait's Anti-Iran Move Boosts Accords 科威特反伊举动推高《亚伯拉罕协议》

25% +7.8%

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?


The probability of a new country joining the Abraham Accords by 2027 rose to 25% (+7.8%) following Kuwait's order to close an Iranian private school. This action signals a hardening stance against Iran, potentially aligning Kuwait more closely with nations already in the Accords. 鉴于科威特下令关闭一所伊朗私立学校,新国家在2027年前加入《亚伯拉罕协议》的可能性升至25%(+7.8%)。此举表明科威特对伊朗立场强硬,可能使其更倾向于与已加入协议的国家结盟。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kuwait's closure of Iranian private school
  • Kuwait's hardening stance against Iran
  • Potential for Kuwait to join anti-Iran regional bloc
  • 科威特关闭伊朗私立学校
  • 科威特对伊朗立场趋于强硬
  • 科威特可能加入区域反伊朗阵营
Expanding the Abraham Accords signifies a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, fostering regional stability and economic cooperation while isolating Iran. 扩大《亚伯拉罕协议》标志着中东地缘政治的重大转变,有助于促进区域稳定和经济合作,同时孤立伊朗。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Kuwait's recent move against Iran suggests a potential shift towards regional alignment that could lead to joining the Abraham Accords. 科威特近期针对伊朗的行动预示其可能转向区域结盟,从而促使其加入《亚伯拉罕协议》。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong domestic opposition and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict could prevent Kuwait or other Arab nations from joining the Accords. 强大的国内反对声浪和持续的巴以冲突可能阻止科威特或其他阿拉伯国家加入协议。

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500
#25 · Score 78

Ceasefire Hopes Dim on Disarmament Standoff 停火希望渺茫:解除武装僵局

44% -7.5%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?


The probability of an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31 dropped 7.5% to 44%, primarily driven by Israel's rejection of the US peace plan and Hamas's refusal to disarm. Israeli PM Netanyahu's government insists on Hamas's full disarmament before any withdrawal, a condition Hamas leaders explicitly reject. 以色列与哈马斯第二阶段停火协议在12月31日前达成的可能性下降7.5%至44%,主要原因是:以色列拒绝美国和平计划,并坚持哈马斯解除武装。哈马斯领导人明确表示不会交出武器,导致谈判陷入僵局。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Israel rejected Trump's Gaza peace plan, demanding Hamas disarmament.
  • Gaza militia leader stated Hamas will not hand over weapons.
  • Netanyahu avoids commitments on Gaza, hindering peace deal.
  • Israel warns of 'ambush' despite Hamas's disarmament claims.
  • 以色列拒绝特朗普加沙和平计划,要求哈马斯解除武装。
  • 哈马斯军事领导人声明不会交出武器。
  • 内塔尼亚胡避免对加沙做出承诺,阻碍协议。
  • 以色列警告“伏击”,不信任哈马斯解除武装声明。
A Phase II ceasefire is crucial for de-escalation, humanitarian aid, and long-term stability in the region, impacting global geopolitical dynamics. Failure to achieve it risks prolonged conflict and further regional instability. 第二阶段停火对地区局势降级、人道援助及长期稳定至关重要,影响全球地缘政治。未能达成协议将导致冲突持续和地区动荡加剧。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Intense US and international pressure could compel both Israel and Hamas to make concessions, leading to a breakthrough in negotiations. 美国及国际社会的强大压力可能促使以哈双方妥协,推动谈判取得突破。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued maximalist demands from both sides, particularly Hamas's refusal to disarm, will likely prevent any Phase II ceasefire. 双方持续提出最高要求,特别是哈马斯拒绝解除武装,将阻碍第二阶段停火协议达成。

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#26 · Score 75

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

32% +7.0%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#27 · Score 75

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

8% -7.0%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#28 · Score 75

Bitcoin Holds $60K Amid Rate Hike Relief 比特币守稳6万,加息担忧缓解

24% -7.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?


The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August fell by 7.0% to 24%. This shift was primarily driven by the Aug. 7 jobs report weakening the case for a September rate hike, easing pressure on risk assets. 比特币八月跌至6万美元的可能性下降7.0%至24%。这主要是由于8月7日就业报告削弱了9月加息的可能性,减轻了风险资产的压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Aug. 7 jobs report weakened September rate hike odds.
  • Nansen founder Alex Svanevik's bullish $60K floor view.
  • Bitcoin's 1.50% 30-day gain, trading near $65,000.
  • 8月7日就业报告降低9月加息预期。
  • Nansen创始人Alex Svanevik看好6万美元底部。
  • 比特币30天上涨1.5%,交易价近6.5万美元。
This market reflects investor confidence in Bitcoin's current support levels and its resilience to macroeconomic shifts. It indicates a potential decoupling from immediate rate hike fears. 该市场反映了投资者对比特币当前支撑位及其宏观经济韧性的信心。它表明比特币可能正在摆脱即时加息担忧的影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating geopolitical tensions, such as those in Hormuz, could trigger a broad risk-off sell-off, pushing Bitcoin below $60,000. 霍尔木兹等地区地缘政治紧张局势升级,可能引发市场避险情绪,推动比特币跌破6万美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Favorable macroeconomic data, like the recent jobs report, continues to reduce rate hike fears, bolstering Bitcoin's price floor. 利好的宏观经济数据,如最新就业报告,持续缓解加息担忧,支撑比特币价格底部。

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500
#29 · Score 69

Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?

80% -6.5%

Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#30 · Score 69

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

22% -6.5%

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#31 · Score 48

Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31? Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31?

11% -4.5%

Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#32 · Score 30

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?

23% -2.6%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。