AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 14, 2026 06:33 UTC
#1 · Score 678

TSLA $450 Target Certainty Surges 特斯拉450美元目标概率飙升

100% +67.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 11 2026?

Tesla's probability to hit $450 by May 2026 rocketed to 100% following a massive 67.5% surge. This dramatic shift is primarily driven by renewed market confidence in Tesla's AI valuation potential and a stable economic outlook for 2026. 特斯拉在2026年5月达到450美元的概率飙升67.5%至100%。这一剧烈变化主要源于市场对特斯拉AI估值潜力的信心重燃以及对2026年经济前景的稳定预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AI stock valuation surpassing Tesla highlights TSLA's AI potential.
  • Elon Musk's prominent role in OpenAI trial boosts AI leadership perception.
  • Prediction of steady high-yield rates by May 2026 signals economic stability.
  • AI股估值超越特斯拉，凸显TSLA的AI潜力。
  • 马斯克OpenAI审判提升AI领导力。
  • 2026年5月高收益率稳定，预示经济稳定。
This extreme probability indicates strong market conviction in Tesla's future growth, particularly its AI ventures, and suggests a significant re-evaluation of its long-term valuation. 这种极高的概率表明市场对特斯拉未来增长，特别是其AI业务，抱有强烈信念，预示着对其长期估值进行重大重估。
Vol 24h: $1,252 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Market believes Tesla's AI (FSD, Optimus) is severely undervalued and will drive a massive re-rating to $450+. 市场坚信特斯拉AI（FSD、擎天柱）被严重低估，将推动股价大幅重估至450美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 100% probability is an overreaction; current headlines don't justify such extreme certainty for a future stock price. 100%概率反应过度；现有新闻不足以支撑未来股价如此极端的确定性。
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500
#2 · Score 618

NVDA Surges: AI Propels $228 Target 英伟达飙升：AI推动228美元目标

92% +61.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of May 11 2026?

NVIDIA's probability to hit $228 by May 2026 surged to 92% following strong analyst upgrades and record stock performance. Wells Fargo's forecast of over 40% upside, driven by accelerating AI demand, was a key catalyst. 在强劲的分析师上调评级和股价创纪录表现后，英伟达(NVDA)到2026年5月达到228美元的概率飙升至92%。富国银行预测AI需求加速将推动股价上涨40%以上，是关键催化剂。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Wells Fargo's 40%+ upside forecast for NVDA
  • Multiple analysts raised NVDA price targets
  • NVDA stock closed at a new record high
  • Accelerating AI demand boosts NVDA outlook
  • 富国银行预测英伟达股价将上涨40%以上
  • 多家分析师上调英伟达目标价
  • 英伟达股价创下历史新高
  • AI需求加速提振英伟达前景
This movement highlights Wall Street's increasing confidence in the long-term growth trajectory of AI and NVIDIA's dominant position within it. 这一走势凸显华尔街对AI长期增长轨迹及英伟达主导地位的信心日益增强。
Vol 24h: $2,716 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued robust AI demand and strong analyst endorsements will propel NVDA past $228 by May 2026. 持续强劲的AI需求和分析师力挺将推动英伟达在2026年5月前突破228美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions or a slowdown in AI spending could hinder NVDA's growth to $228. 地缘政治紧张或AI支出放缓可能阻碍英伟达股价达到228美元。
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500
#3 · Score 508

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of May 11 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of May 11

4% -50.4%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of May 11 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,419 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Down: Up Probability Hits Zero 比特币下跌：上涨概率归零

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11PM ET

The probability for Bitcoin to be up by May 13, 11 PM ET, plummeted to 0%, reflecting a strong market conviction for a downward or flat movement. This shift occurred despite recent positive operational updates from Bitcoin miners like LM Funding and Bitdeer for April, suggesting these were insufficient to counter prevailing market pressures or a lack of immediate catalysts. 比特币在5月13日晚上11点前上涨的概率跌至0%，反映市场强烈预期其将下跌或持平。尽管LM Funding和Bitdeer等比特币矿商公布了4月份积极的运营更新，但这些消息未能抵消市场压力或缺乏即时利好催化剂。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Miner updates (LM Funding, Bitdeer) insufficient for upside.
  • Capital rotation to S&P 500, Nasdaq futures.
  • Bitcoin's price action settled below 'up' threshold.
  • 矿商更新（LM Funding, Bitdeer）不足以推高。
  • 资金转向标普500、纳斯达克期货。
  • 比特币价格已低于上涨门槛。
This movement indicates a significant bearish sentiment for Bitcoin in the short term, potentially influenced by broader market dynamics and the perceived absence of strong crypto-specific drivers. 这一走势表明市场对比特币短期内存在显著看跌情绪，可能受到更广泛市场动态和缺乏强劲加密货币特定驱动因素的影响。
Vol 24h: $51,415 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden, unforeseen positive catalyst or significant late-day buying could still reverse the trend before the deadline. 突发的意外利好消息或临近截止时间的大量买盘仍可能逆转趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's current price trajectory and absence of strong upward drivers ensure it will not be up by the deadline. 比特币当前价格走势和缺乏强劲上涨驱动因素，确认其在截止时间前不会上涨。
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500
#5 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up Probability Crashes 比特币上涨概率暴跌

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by May 13, 10 PM ET, plummeted to 0% from 50% in 24 hours. This sharp decline was primarily driven by negative implications from LM Funding America's April 2026 operational update, which detailed its Bitcoin treasury. 比特币在5月13日晚10点前上涨的概率在24小时内从50%暴跌至0%。此次急剧下降主要受LM Funding America公布的2026年4月运营更新中比特币储备负面影响驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • LM Funding America's April 2026 operational update.
  • Negative details regarding LM Funding's Bitcoin treasury.
  • Increased investor concern over crypto-holding firms.
  • LM Funding America 2026年4月运营更新。
  • LM Funding比特币储备报告的负面细节。
  • 投资者对持有加密货币公司的担忧加剧。
A significant negative update from a publicly traded company with Bitcoin holdings can signal broader challenges for the crypto industry, impacting investor confidence. 上市公司关于比特币持有情况的重大负面更新，可能预示加密行业面临更广泛挑战，影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $26,965 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected positive macro news or strong institutional buying could rapidly reverse Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. 意外的宏观利好消息或强劲机构买盘，可能迅速扭转比特币短期走势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 LM Funding's update confirms growing headwinds for Bitcoin-related companies, reinforcing a strong bearish outlook. LM Funding的更新证实了比特币相关公司面临的阻力，强化了强烈的短期看跌前景。
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500
#6 · Score 461

Ceasefire Extension Hopes Plummet 停火延期希望骤降

4% -45.7%

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?

The probability of Israel announcing a ceasefire extension by May 14 has plummeted to 4% following reports of ongoing hostilities and insurmountable conditions. U.S. envoy Nickolay Mladenov's statement that a ceasefire hinges on Hamas' disarmament, coupled with Hezbollah's refusal to discuss its weapons, are key drivers. 以色列宣布停火延长至5月14日的可能性已降至4%，原因在于持续的敌对行动和难以逾越的条件。美国特使尼古拉·姆拉德诺夫表示停火取决于哈马斯解除武装，以及真主党拒绝讨论其武器，是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Hamas disarmament condition by U.S. envoy Mladenov
  • Hezbollah refuses to discuss weapons, 'not surrender'
  • Israeli forces destroy homes in southern Lebanon
  • Lebanon asks US to halt Israeli attacks
  • 美国特使姆拉德诺夫提出哈马斯解除武装条件
  • 真主党拒绝讨论武器，称“不会投降”
  • 以色列军队在黎巴嫩南部摧毁房屋
  • 黎巴嫩要求美国停止以色列袭击
This market reflects the severe challenges to de-escalation in the region, impacting humanitarian efforts and regional stability. A failure to extend the ceasefire signals a likely intensification of conflict. 该市场反映了该地区局势降级的严峻挑战，影响人道主义努力和地区稳定。未能延长停火预示着冲突可能加剧。
Vol 24h: $21,145 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Intense international pressure or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough could still lead to a last-minute ceasefire extension. 强大的国际压力或意外的外交突破仍可能促成停火的最后一刻延长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ongoing hostilities and key parties' refusal to meet disarmament conditions make an extension highly improbable. 持续的敌对行动和主要方拒绝解除武装条件，使得停火延期可能性极低。
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500
#7 · Score 448

Silver Surges: $88 May Target Locked 白银飙升：五月88美元目标锁定

100% +44.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?

Silver's probability of hitting $88 in May surged to 100% following strong analyst reports from Kitco predicting a push towards $90. This momentum is attributed to a structural shift in the global economy and silver's resilience against inflation. 白银五月触及88美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受Kitco分析师预测银价将冲向90美元的强劲报告驱动。全球经济结构性转变及白银对通胀的韧性支撑了这一势头。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kitco analysts predict $90+ silver target.
  • Silver's push above $80 reflects structural global economic shift.
  • Silver firms despite hotter US CPI and higher yields.
  • Kitco分析师预测白银将突破90美元。
  • 白银突破80美元反映全球经济结构转变。
  • 美国CPI走高推升收益率，白银仍坚挺。
This indicates growing confidence in silver's role as an industrial and investment metal, potentially signaling broader inflationary pressures or economic rebalancing. 这表明市场对白银作为工业和投资金属的信心日益增强，可能预示着更广泛的通胀压力或经济再平衡。
Vol 24h: $7,432 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong industrial demand and persistent inflation could easily push silver past $88, with analysts eyeing $90+. 强劲的工业需求和持续通胀可能轻松推动白银突破88美元，分析师已关注90美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected economic slowdown or aggressive Fed tightening could reverse silver's momentum, preventing $88. 意外的经济放缓或美联储激进紧缩可能逆转白银势头，使其无法达到88美元。
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500
#8 · Score 420

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?

73% +41.5%

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $51,802 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 399

GOOGL $410 May Target Probability Soars 谷歌五月410美元目标概率飙升

78% +39.6%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

The probability of Alphabet (GOOGL) hitting $410 in May surged to 78% following a dramatic 39.6% increase in 24 hours. This sharp movement is driven by a strong re-evaluation of its Q1 2024 earnings and heightened expectations for AI monetization. Alphabet (GOOGL) 五月触及410美元的概率在24小时内飙升39.6%至78%。这一剧烈变动主要源于市场对2024年第一季度财报的强劲重新评估以及对AI变现的更高预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q1 2024 Earnings Re-evaluation: Investors are re-assessing Alphabet's strong Q1 2024 financial results, particularly robust Cloud and Search growth.
  • Accelerated AI Monetization Outlook: Heightened expectations for rapid monetization of Gemini and other AI innovations are boosting short-term price targets.
  • Technical Breakout Momentum: GOOGL's stock likely breached key resistance levels, triggering significant buying interest and algorithmic trades.
  • 2024年第一季度财报重估: 投资者重新评估Alphabet强劲的2024年第一季度财报，特别是云服务和搜索业务的强劲增长。
  • 加速AI变现预期: 对Gemini及其他AI创新快速变现的预期增强，推高了短期目标价。
  • 技术突破动能: GOOGL股价可能突破了关键阻力位，引发大量买盘和算法交易。
This market reflects extreme bullish sentiment on Alphabet's near-term growth and its ability to capitalize on AI, potentially signaling a significant re-rating of tech giants. 该市场反映了对Alphabet近期增长及其利用AI能力的极度看涨情绪，可能预示着科技巨头估值的重大重估。
Vol 24h: $5,355 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q1 earnings momentum and accelerating AI monetization could drive GOOGL past $410 in May. 强劲的一季度财报势头和加速的AI变现能力可能推动GOOGL在五月突破410美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $410 target is highly ambitious; any market correction or AI competition could halt GOOGL's surge. 410美元目标极具挑战；市场回调或AI竞争加剧可能阻止GOOGL飙升。
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500
#10 · Score 364

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026?

76% +36.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,584 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 314

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

80% +31.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $5,916 Polymarket ↗
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500
#12 · Score 269

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?

12% -26.5%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $14,259 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 265

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

60% +26.0%

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $31,999 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 258

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 Week of May 11 2026? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 Week of May 11 2026?

100% +25.4%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 Week of May 11 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,837 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 243

Meta Low $580 Probability Drops Meta跌破580美元概率下降

32% -24.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

The probability of Meta Platforms (META) hitting a low of $580 in May decreased by 24% in 24 hours. This shift suggests market reassessment of Meta's post-earnings performance and analyst price targets, outweighing concerns from a $7B scam ad revenue lawsuit by Santa Clara County. Meta Platforms (META)在5月份跌至580美元低点的概率在24小时内下降了24%。这一变化表明市场对Meta财报后表现和分析师目标价进行了重新评估，其影响盖过了圣克拉拉县70亿美元诈骗广告收入诉讼的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Positive analyst re-evaluation post-earnings
  • Market stabilization after earnings volatility
  • Lawsuit's immediate impact discounted
  • 财报后分析师目标价积极调整
  • 市场在财报波动后趋于稳定
  • 市场淡化诉讼即时影响
This indicates a potential stabilization or improved outlook for Meta's stock price after recent volatility, impacting investor confidence in the tech giant. 这表明Meta股价在近期波动后可能趋于稳定或前景改善，影响投资者对这家科技巨头的信心。
Vol 24h: $2,413 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong post-earnings analyst re-evaluations and continued AI investment confidence will keep META above $580. 积极的财报后分析师重估和AI投资信心将使META保持在580美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $7B scam ad revenue lawsuit and broader AI sector concerns could still drive META to $580. 70亿美元诈骗广告诉讼和AI行业担忧仍可能将META推向580美元。
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500
#16 · Score 238

Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?

10% -23.5%

Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,286 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 214

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

70% +21.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,016 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 209

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?

26% -20.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $9,718 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 202

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 Week of May 11 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 Week of May 11 2026?

100% +20.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 Week of May 11 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $640 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 193

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

100% +18.9%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,179 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 183

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in May? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in May?

100% +17.9%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,297 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 175

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their

0% -17.0%

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $166,188 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 174

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?

60% +17.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,866 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 163

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

38% -16.0%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,356 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 160

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?

74% +15.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $31,549 Polymarket ↗
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500
#26 · Score 155

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

10% -15.0%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $84,573 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 150

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

38% +14.5%

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $65,598 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 149

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?

63% +14.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,838 Polymarket ↗
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500
#29 · Score 129

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?

55% +12.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,711 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 124

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

10% -11.9%

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $21,295 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 50

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026

5% +4.7%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,949 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。