AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 17, 2026 11:17 UTC
#1 · Score 668

MSFT $405 Certainty Surges 微软股价405美元几率飙升

100% +66.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability for MSFT hitting $405 by July 2026 surged to 100%, driven by strong market anticipation of future growth despite recent price target cuts. This extreme optimism is fueled by speculative interpretations of Microsoft's strategic moves, such as the unexplained removal of Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 1+2 from Xbox Game Pass, alongside broader tech sector strength. 微软(MSFT)股价在2026年7月前达到405美元的概率飙升至100%，尽管近期目标价被下调，市场仍强烈预期其未来增长。这种极度乐观情绪源于对微软战略举措的猜测，例如Xbox Game Pass无故下架《托尼霍克滑板1+2》，以及更广泛科技行业的强劲表现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Speculation on major strategic pivot in gaming.
  • Broader tech sector optimism from memory chip boom.
  • Market anticipation of unannounced AI/cloud growth.
  • 市场猜测游戏业务重大战略转型。
  • 内存芯片繁荣带动科技行业乐观情绪。
  • 市场预期未公布的AI/云增长催化剂。
This reflects extreme market confidence in Microsoft's long-term growth trajectory, setting a high bar for future performance and indicating belief in strategic initiatives. It suggests investors believe MSFT will overcome any short-term headwinds. 这反映了市场对微软长期增长轨迹的极度信心，为其未来业绩设定了高标准，表明投资者相信其战略举措将克服短期逆风。
Vol 24h: $1,292 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Microsoft's AI and cloud dominance, coupled with strategic gaming pivots, ensures robust future revenue growth. 微软在AI和云计算领域的主导地位，加上游戏战略调整，确保未来营收强劲增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Aggressive competition, regulatory scrutiny, or a broader tech market downturn could impede MSFT's growth. 激烈的竞争、监管审查或更广泛的科技市场低迷可能阻碍微软增长。
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500
#2 · Score 623

NVDA Probability Plunges Amid Chip Rotation 英伟达概率暴跌，芯片股资金流出

20% -62.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $205?

NVIDIA's probability of finishing above $205 by July 13 plummeted by 62% to 20%. This sharp decline was primarily driven by reports of a significant $3.2 trillion capital rotation away from chip stocks. 英伟达（NVDA）在7月13日收盘价高于205美元的概率暴跌62%至20%。这一急剧下降主要受报道称有3.2万亿美元资金从芯片股撤出的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • $3.2 trillion capital rotation from chip stocks (Yahoo Finance)
  • Increased uncertainty regarding AI stock valuations (The Motley Fool)
  • 3.2万亿美元资金从芯片股撤出（雅虎财经）
  • AI股票估值不确定性增加（Motley Fool）
This movement reflects a significant shift in capital allocation within the tech sector, potentially impacting future valuations for AI-related companies. 这一变化反映了科技行业内资金配置的重大转变，可能影响未来AI相关公司的估值。
Vol 24h: $1,358 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong underlying demand for AI infrastructure and NVIDIA's dominant market position could quickly reverse the current downturn. 人工智能基础设施的强劲需求和英伟达的市场主导地位有望迅速扭转当前跌势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued capital rotation out of chip stocks and broader tech sector consolidation will keep NVDA under pressure. 资金持续流出芯片股以及科技板块的整体盘整将使英伟达承压。
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500
#3 · Score 578

Alphabet Market Cap Surges 谷歌市值飙升

82% +57.5%

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Alphabet's probability of becoming the third-largest company by market cap on August 31 surged to 82% after a significant "Alphabet Rally" boosted its stock value. This rally, highlighted by Larry Page's fortune reaching $300 billion, overshadowed concerns about Gemini AI delays and regulatory challenges. 谷歌在8月31日成为全球第三大公司的概率飙升至82%，主要受“Alphabet Rally”推动其股价上涨。尽管面临Gemini AI延迟和监管挑战，拉里·佩奇财富突破3000亿美元的消息凸显了这一强劲涨势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Significant "Alphabet Rally" boosts stock.
  • Larry Page's fortune hits $300 billion.
  • Investor confidence in Alphabet's growth.
  • “Alphabet Rally”推动股价大涨。
  • 拉里·佩奇财富突破3000亿美元。
  • 投资者对谷歌长期增长有信心。
Alphabet's market cap position reflects its competitive standing in the tech industry and investor confidence in its future growth, particularly in AI. Its ranking impacts broader market indices and investment strategies. 谷歌的市值排名反映其在科技行业的竞争力及投资者对其AI前景的信心，影响市场指数和投资策略。
Vol 24h: $2,998 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A strong "Alphabet Rally" and successful AI product launches could propel its market cap past competitors. 强劲的“Alphabet Rally”和成功AI产品发布能推动其市值超越竞争对手。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Delays in Gemini AI, regulatory bans, and copyright lawsuits could significantly hinder Alphabet's market cap growth. Gemini AI延迟、监管禁令及版权诉讼可能严重阻碍谷歌市值增长。
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500
#4 · Score 506

GOOGL Plunges, $375 Target Fades 谷歌股价大跌，375美元目标渺茫

1% -50.2%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 13 above $375?

The probability of GOOGL finishing above $375 by July 13 plummeted to 1% after the stock dropped 4.44% to $354.46. This significant decline, coupled with broader tech sector weakness, made the target price much harder to achieve. 谷歌(GOOGL)股价在过去24小时内下跌4.44%至354.46美元，导致其在7月13日前收盘价高于375美元的概率骤降至1%。这一显著跌幅，加上科技板块整体走弱，使得目标价更难实现。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • GOOGL stock fell 4.44% to $354.46.
  • QQQ, a tech ETF, declined 1.64%.
  • Increased distance to $375 target.
  • 谷歌股价下跌4.44%至354.46美元。
  • 科技股ETF QQQ下跌1.64%。
  • 距离375美元目标价更远。
The sharp drop reflects investor concern over GOOGL's short-term trajectory and the broader tech market's health. It indicates a strong consensus against a rapid rebound. 此次大幅下跌反映了投资者对谷歌短期走势及科技市场整体健康的担忧。这表明市场普遍认为短期内难以迅速反弹。
Vol 24h: $8,748 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong analyst upgrades or a broad tech rally could quickly push GOOGL towards $375. 强劲分析师上调评级或科技股普涨可能迅速推动谷歌股价接近375美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued tech sector weakness and GOOGL's recent 4.44% decline make the $375 target highly improbable. 科技板块持续疲软及谷歌近期下跌4.44%使375美元目标极不可能。
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500
#5 · Score 499

Bitcoin Surges, Up Bet Certain 比特币飙升，看涨几成定局

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5AM ET

Bitcoin's probability of being 'Up' by July 17, 5 AM ET, surged to 100% following a significant 4% price pump. This move was reinforced by Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing higher on Wednesday. 比特币在7月17日凌晨5点（ET）前上涨的概率飙升至100%，主要受其价格大幅上涨4%的推动。周三比特币和以太坊的持续走高进一步强化了这一趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin pumps 4%
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum continued higher
  • Cooler inflation data and dollar weakness
  • Ethereum dominance rotation warning
  • 比特币价格上涨4%
  • 比特币和以太坊持续走高
  • 通胀数据降温与美元走弱
  • 以太坊主导地位轮换预警
This extreme probability indicates strong conviction in Bitcoin's short-term upward trajectory, potentially signaling broader crypto market strength or a rotation into Bitcoin. 这种极高的概率表明市场对短期内比特币上涨轨迹的强烈信心，可能预示着更广泛的加密市场走强或资金流入比特币。
Vol 24h: $43,741 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's recent 4% pump and continued upward momentum strongly indicate it will be 'Up' by the deadline. 比特币近期4%的上涨和持续的上升势头，强烈预示其将在截止日期前保持上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current certainty, 'exit signals building' and nearing a 'key pivot' could lead to a sudden reversal. 尽管目前市场确定性高，但“退出信号”和接近“关键枢轴点”可能导致突然逆转。
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500
#6 · Score 499

Ethereum Surges: 100% Up Probability 以太坊飙升：100%看涨

100% +49.5%

Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 5AM ET

Ethereum's 'Up' probability for July 17, 5 AM ET, surged to 100%, driven by its strong market performance. Recent KITCO reports highlight Ethereum leading the crypto market, even as Bitcoin nears a key pivot point. 以太坊在7月17日凌晨5点（ET）的看涨概率飙升至100%，主要受其强劲市场表现驱动。KITCO最新报道指出，尽管比特币接近关键转折点，以太坊仍在加密市场中领涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • KITCO: Ethereum leads crypto market performance
  • KITCO: Bitcoin's 4% pump boosts overall crypto sentiment
  • Market conviction for Ethereum's upward trend
  • KITCO：以太坊在加密市场中表现领先
  • KITCO：比特币上涨4%提振整体市场情绪
  • 市场对以太坊上涨趋势的强烈信心
This extreme conviction suggests strong underlying belief in Ethereum's short-term trajectory, potentially indicating broader market strength or specific positive developments driving investor confidence. 这种高度确信表明市场对以太坊短期走势有强烈信心，可能预示着更广泛的市场强势或推动投资者信心的具体积极进展。
Vol 24h: $11,539 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Ethereum's current leadership and strong market conviction point to continued upward momentum, overcoming any Bitcoin-related concerns. 以太坊当前领先地位和市场强劲信心预示其将继续上涨，克服比特币相关担忧。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's 'exit signals' and Ethereum dominance 'rotation warning' could trigger a downturn despite current optimism. 比特币的“退出信号”和以太坊主导地位的“轮换警告”可能引发下跌。
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500
#7 · Score 488

Bitcoin Up Probability Crashes 比特币上涨概率暴跌

2% -48.2%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on July 17 plummeted to 2%, driven by KITCO reports indicating "exit signals build" and a "key pivot" for Bitcoin. This represents a massive 48.2% drop in the last 24 hours. 比特币在7月17日上涨的概率骤降至2%，主要受KITCO报道中“退出信号正在形成”和比特币“接近关键枢轴点”的悲观预测驱动。这标志着24小时内概率暴跌了48.2%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • KITCO warns "exit signals build" for Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin "nears a key pivot" suggesting potential downside.
  • Ethereum dominance flashes a "rotation warning."
  • KITCO警告比特币“退出信号正在形成”。
  • 比特币“接近关键枢轴点”预示潜在下行。
  • 以太坊主导地位发出“轮换警告”。
This dramatic shift signals strong bearish sentiment among traders, potentially indicating a significant price correction or prolonged stagnation for Bitcoin in the near term. 这一剧烈变化表明交易员普遍看空，可能预示比特币在短期内将出现大幅价格回调或长期停滞。
Vol 24h: $127,239 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A strong, unexpected positive catalyst or a technical rebound could quickly reverse the current bearish sentiment. 突发的利好消息或技术性反弹可能迅速扭转当前的市场悲观情绪。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Confirmation of "exit signals" and failure at the "key pivot" point would further solidify the bearish outlook. “退出信号”得到确认且未能守住“关键枢轴点”将进一步强化看跌预期。
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500
#8 · Score 459

Apple Surges on Growth, Valuation Hopes 苹果股价飙升，增长前景乐观

58% +45.6%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 Week of July 13 2026?

Apple's probability of hitting $336 by July 2026 surged to 58% following strong growth forecasts and a bullish market cap prediction. IDC reported continued Q2 growth driven by China demand, while The Motley Fool predicted Apple surpassing Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap. 苹果股价在2026年7月13日达到336美元的概率飙升至58%，主要受强劲增长预测和看涨市值预测驱动。IDC报告称，中国市场需求推动苹果第二季度持续增长，同时Motley Fool预测苹果将超越英伟达成为全球市值最高公司。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IDC forecasts Apple Q2 growth, China demand.
  • Motley Fool predicts Apple $5T market cap.
  • Wholesale inflation decline boosts market.
  • IDC预测苹果Q2增长，中国需求。
  • Motley Fool预测苹果市值超5万亿。
  • 批发通胀下降提振市场情绪。
This movement reflects growing investor confidence in Apple's long-term growth trajectory and its potential to dominate the global tech landscape, impacting broader market valuations. 这一变化反映了投资者对苹果长期增长轨迹及其在全球科技领域主导地位的信心日益增强，将影响更广泛的市场估值。
Vol 24h: $2,824 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong China demand and IDC's growth forecast, plus a prediction of Apple becoming the world's most valuable company, fuel price surge. 中国市场强劲需求与IDC增长预测，加上苹果有望成为全球市值最高公司的预测，将推动股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, or a global consumer spending slowdown could hinder Apple's growth. 地缘政治紧张、供应链中断或全球消费支出放缓可能阻碍苹果增长。
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500
#9 · Score 459

Ethereum Up Probability Plunges 以太坊上涨概率骤降

5% -45.4%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 17?

The probability of Ethereum being up on July 17 has plummeted by 45.4% to 5%, primarily driven by a 'rotation warning' as Bitcoin saw a 4% pump. This suggests capital is shifting away from Ethereum. 以太坊在7月17日上涨的概率已暴跌45.4%至5%，主要受比特币上涨4%并出现“轮换预警”的驱动。这表明资金正在从以太坊流出。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • KITCO reported 'Ethereum dominance flashes a rotation warning.'
  • Bitcoin's 4% pump suggests capital shift to BTC.
  • KITCO noted 'exit signals build' for broader crypto market.
  • KITCO报道“以太坊主导地位发出轮换预警”。
  • 比特币上涨4%暗示资金转向BTC。
  • KITCO指出更广泛加密市场“退出信号正在形成”。
This movement reflects a significant shift in investor sentiment regarding Ethereum's short-term price trajectory, potentially signaling a broader market re-evaluation of altcoins versus Bitcoin. 这一变化反映了投资者对以太坊短期价格走势的信心显著下降，可能预示着市场对山寨币与比特币的重新评估。
Vol 24h: $32,857 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong institutional inflows or a major network upgrade announcement could reverse the trend. 强劲的机构资金流入或重大网络升级公告可能扭转趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued Bitcoin dominance and capital rotation away from altcoins will likely push Ethereum lower. 比特币持续主导和资金从山寨币流出将可能进一步压低以太坊。
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500
#10 · Score 375

NVIDIA's Top Spot Chances Plummet 英伟达市值登顶概率骤降

48% -37.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

NVIDIA's probability of being the world's largest company by July 31st dropped significantly by 37% to 48%. This decline was driven by predictions of Apple surpassing its market cap and recent reports of NVIDIA losing $1 trillion in value. 英伟达在7月31日前成为全球市值最大公司的概率显著下跌37%至48%。此下跌主要受《The Motley Fool》预测苹果将超越英伟达市值，以及《Mexico Business News》报告英伟达近期市值蒸发1万亿美元的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple predicted to surpass NVIDIA market cap
  • NVIDIA lost roughly $1 trillion in value
  • 苹果被预测将超越英伟达市值
  • 英伟达市值近期蒸发约1万亿美元
The race for the world's largest company reflects leadership in critical tech sectors and influences broader market sentiment and investment flows. 争夺全球市值最大公司的地位反映了关键科技领域的领导力，并影响着更广泛的市场情绪和投资流向。
Vol 24h: $90,587 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVIDIA's unparalleled AI chip dominance and strong demand could drive a rapid market cap recovery. 英伟达在AI芯片领域无与伦比的统治地位和强劲需求可能推动其市值迅速回升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased competition and recent $1 trillion market cap loss make it challenging for NVIDIA to reclaim the top spot. 竞争加剧及近期市值蒸发1万亿美元，使英伟达难以重夺榜首。
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500
#11 · Score 344

NVIDIA's Climb to Second-Largest Surges 英伟达市值冲刺全球第二

42% +34.0%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

The probability of NVIDIA becoming the world's second-largest company by market cap on July 31 surged by 34% to 42%, primarily driven by fantastic news from its key manufacturing partner, TSMC, which signals robust future supply and revenue potential. 英伟达在7月31日前成为全球市值第二大公司的可能性飙升34%至42%，主要得益于其关键制造伙伴台积电宣布的利好消息，预示着强劲的未来供应和营收潜力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • TSMC's "fantastic news" for Nvidia shareholders.
  • Sustained strong demand for NVIDIA's AI accelerators.
  • CEO Jensen Huang's high-profile reunion with early investor.
  • 台积电宣布对英伟达股东的“重大利好消息”。
  • 全球对英伟达AI芯片需求持续强劲。
  • 英伟达CEO黄仁勋与早期投资者高调重聚。
NVIDIA's market cap position reflects its dominance in the burgeoning AI industry and its critical role in global technological advancement, influencing investor confidence across the tech sector. 英伟达的市值地位反映了其在蓬勃发展的AI行业中的主导地位，及其在全球技术进步中的关键作用，影响着整个科技行业的投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $26,061 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 TSMC's positive announcement ensures robust supply of NVIDIA's high-demand AI chips, propelling its market cap past competitors. 台积电积极公告确保英伟达AI芯片供应，推动其市值超越竞争对手。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Apple or Microsoft's strong performance, coupled with broader AI industry headwinds, could limit NVIDIA's ascent. 苹果或微软表现强劲，加上AI行业逆风，可能限制英伟达市值上升。
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500
#12 · Score 313

GOOGL $330 Low Probability Surges GOOGL触及330美元概率飙升

46% +31.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in July?

The probability of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hitting a low of $330 in July surged by 31% to 46% following a significant 4.44% drop in its share price. This decline, reported by MarketBeat, brought GOOGL to $354.46 amidst a broader tech market downturn. Alphabet (GOOGL) 7月触及330美元低点的概率飙升31%至46%，此前其股价大幅下跌4.44%。据MarketBeat报道，此次下跌使GOOGL跌至354.46美元，同时科技股大盘也普遍走低。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • GOOGL shares dropped 4.44% to $354.46
  • Broader tech market (QQQ, META) declines
  • Increased proximity to $330 target price
  • GOOGL股价下跌4.44%至354.46美元
  • 科技股大盘（QQQ, META）普遍下跌
  • 股价更接近330美元目标价
This movement reflects increased investor concern over tech sector valuations and GOOGL's near-term price trajectory. A sustained decline could impact broader market sentiment. 此举反映出投资者对科技股估值和GOOGL近期股价走势的担忧加剧。持续下跌可能影响更广泛的市场情绪。
Vol 24h: $1,844 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued tech sector weakness and GOOGL's recent price drop could push it further down to the $330 target. 科技板块持续疲软及GOOGL近期股价下跌，可能使其进一步跌至330美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong underlying fundamentals and potential market rebound could prevent GOOGL from hitting $330 in July. 强劲的基本面和潜在的市场反弹，可能阻止GOOGL在7月跌至330美元。
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500
#13 · Score 303

Alphabet's #2 Spot Chances Plummet Alphabet市值第二概率骤降

12% -30.0%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

The probability of Alphabet being the world's second-largest company by market cap on August 31 plummeted by 30% to 12% in 24 hours. This sharp decline was primarily driven by reports of significant delays in its Gemini AI model and increasing legal and regulatory challenges impacting its AI ambitions. Alphabet在8月31日成为全球市值第二大公司的概率在24小时内骤降30%至12%。此次大幅下跌主要受其Gemini AI模型延期报告以及日益增加的AI法律和监管挑战影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Alphabet stock fell 4% on Gemini AI model delays.
  • Google sued by authors/publishers for AI copyright.
  • New York banned new AI data centers impacting Google.
  • Apple predicted to surpass Nvidia's $5T market cap.
  • Gemini AI模型延迟致Alphabet股价跌4%。
  • 谷歌因AI版权侵权遭作者起诉。
  • 纽约州禁止新建AI数据中心影响谷歌。
  • 苹果预计将超越英伟达5万亿市值。
Alphabet's ability to lead in AI is crucial for its future valuation and competitive standing. These setbacks challenge its AI development timeline, legal exposure, and growth potential, directly impacting its market cap relative to rivals. Alphabet在AI领域的领导力对其未来估值和竞争地位至关重要。这些挫折挑战了其AI开发时间表、法律风险和增长潜力，直接影响其相对于竞争对手的市值。
Vol 24h: $1,447 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Alphabet could quickly resolve AI delays and legal issues, releasing groundbreaking AI products that significantly boost its market cap. Alphabet若能迅速解决AI延迟和法律问题，发布突破性AI产品，将显著提升其市值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued AI development setbacks and escalating regulatory/legal pressures will further erode investor confidence and Alphabet's market cap. AI开发持续受挫及监管/法律压力升级，将进一步削弱投资者信心和Alphabet的市值。
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500
#14 · Score 293

Core CPI Outlook Worsens 核心CPI前景恶化

12% -29.0%

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in July?

The probability of July Core CPI YoY being 2.2% or less plummeted by 29% to 12%, driven by renewed concerns over persistent core inflation and geopolitical risks to energy prices. An analyst expressed worry about the "elevated pace of core inflation this year," dampening hopes for a sharp deceleration. 7月核心CPI同比2.2%或以下的概率骤降29%至12%，主要受对核心通胀持续性和能源价格地缘政治风险的担忧影响。有分析师对“今年核心通胀高企”表示担忧，削弱了市场对大幅减速的预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Analyst concern over "elevated pace of core inflation this year."
  • Geopolitical risk of "Renewed Attacks On Iran" disrupting gas price falls.
  • Market re-evaluation of core inflation stickiness despite overall CPI moderation.
  • 分析师担忧“今年核心通胀高企”。
  • “重新袭击伊朗”的地缘政治风险扰乱油价下跌。
  • 市场重新评估核心通胀的粘性，尽管整体CPI放缓。
A higher-than-expected Core CPI could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance longer, impacting interest rates and economic growth. 高于预期的核心CPI可能迫使美联储维持更长时间的鹰派立场，影响利率和经济增长。
Vol 24h: $1,193 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Deeper disinflationary pressures from slowing demand or further supply chain improvements could push Core CPI lower. 需求放缓或供应链改善带来的更深层通缩压力可能推动核心CPI走低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent services inflation and potential energy price shocks make achieving 2.2% Core CPI unlikely. 持续的服务业通胀和潜在的能源价格冲击使得核心CPI达到2.2%变得不太可能。
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500
#15 · Score 283

Tesla Low Price Probability Surges 特斯拉触底概率飙升

64% +28.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting $382.50 by July 2026 surged 28% to 64% following a Forbes report predicting a stock sink in late 2026 and Lucid's 56% stock dive on bankruptcy rumors. 随着《福布斯》预测特斯拉股价将在2026年下半年下跌，以及Lucid因破产传闻股价暴跌56%，TSLA在2026年7月前触及382.50美元低点的概率在24小时内飙升28%至64%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes predicts Tesla stock sink in H2 2026
  • Lucid stock dives 56% on bankruptcy buzz
  • Tesla's history of 'years of price cuts'
  • 《福布斯》预测特斯拉2026下半年股价下跌
  • Lucid因破产传闻股价暴跌56%
  • 特斯拉多年来持续降价的历史
This indicates growing market concern over Tesla's future valuation and the broader health of the electric vehicle sector, potentially impacting investor confidence. 这表明市场对特斯拉未来估值和电动汽车行业整体健康状况的担忧日益加剧，可能影响投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $825 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Forbes' bearish forecast for H2 2026 combined with significant EV sector weakness (Lucid's crash) strongly suggests TSLA could hit the low. 《福布斯》对2026年下半年的悲观预测，加上电动汽车行业（Lucid暴跌）的显著疲软，强烈预示TSLA可能触及该低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Tesla's market leadership and new resale value guarantees could stabilize its position, preventing such a sharp decline. 特斯拉的市场领导地位和新的转售价值保证可能稳定其地位，避免如此急剧的下跌。
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500
#16 · Score 280

Bitcoin Rallies, Up Probability Soars 比特币上涨概率飙升

78% +27.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

The probability for Bitcoin to rise between 4 AM-8 AM ET on July 17 surged by 27.5% to 78%, primarily driven by Bitcoin's recent 4% price pump on Tuesday. This move was further supported by a 'rotation warning' from Ethereum dominance, hinting at capital shifting towards BTC. 比特币在7月17日凌晨4点至8点（ET）上涨的概率飙升27.5%至78%，主要受周二比特币近期4%价格上涨推动。以太坊主导地位的“轮换警告”进一步支持了资金可能转向比特币的预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's recent 4% price pump
  • Ethereum dominance rotation warning
  • Bitcoin approaching a key pivot point
  • 比特币近期价格上涨4%
  • 以太坊主导地位轮换警告
  • 比特币接近关键转折点
This movement indicates strong short-term bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, potentially signaling a breakout from its current trading range or a shift in crypto market leadership. 这一走势表明市场对短期比特币持强烈看涨情绪，可能预示着其将突破当前交易区间或加密市场领导地位的转变。
Vol 24h: $37,516 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's recent 4% pump and potential capital rotation from Ethereum could propel it past key resistance levels. 比特币近期4%的上涨和潜在的资金从以太坊轮换可能推动其突破关键阻力位。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin faces 'exit signals building' and a 'key pivot' zone, indicating strong resistance or a potential reversal. 比特币面临“退出信号”和“关键转折区”，预示着强劲阻力或潜在逆转。
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500
#17 · Score 263

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of th Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of th

20% -26.0%

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,308 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 253

Houthi Action Probability Drops 胡塞行动概率下降

34% -25.0%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

The probability of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 2026 dropped by 25% to 34%. This was driven by market interpretation of recent Houthi threats, including Mohammed al-Bukhaiti's 'siege' warning, as posturing amidst potential diplomatic shifts. 截至2026年7月，胡塞武装对沙特采取军事行动的概率下降25%至34%。市场将包括穆罕默德·布海提“围困”警告在内的近期胡塞威胁解读为外交姿态，驱动了此次下降。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthi threats seen as rhetorical leverage
  • Speculation on Yemen's 'no war, no peace' deadlock ending
  • Conditional nature of Houthi leader's warnings
  • 胡塞威胁被视为谈判筹码
  • 也门“不战不和”僵局或将结束
  • 胡塞领导人警告的条件性
Continued Houthi-Saudi conflict risks regional instability, global oil supply disruptions, and humanitarian crisis in Yemen. 胡塞与沙特的持续冲突可能引发地区不稳定、全球石油供应中断及也门人道危机。
Vol 24h: $2,101 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed Saudi-Houthi hostilities or a breakdown in peace efforts will likely trigger direct Houthi military action against Saudi targets. 沙特与胡塞敌对行动升级或和平努力破裂，将可能促使胡塞武装直接攻击沙特目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic breakthroughs or international pressure leading to a lasting ceasefire will significantly reduce the likelihood of Houthi action. 外交突破或国际压力促成持久停火，将显著降低胡塞武装采取行动的可能性。
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500
#19 · Score 249

Nvidia's Top Spot Threatened by Apple, Valuation Slide 英伟达榜首地位受威胁，市值下滑

57% -24.5%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

The probability of Nvidia being the world's largest company by August 31 dropped significantly by 24.5% to 57%. This decline was primarily driven by predictions of Apple surpassing Nvidia and a reported $1 trillion market cap loss for Nvidia. 英伟达在8月31日前成为全球市值最大公司的可能性在24小时内大幅下降24.5%至57%。这主要受《Motley Fool》预测苹果将超越英伟达以及英伟达市值损失约1万亿美元的报道驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Motley Fool predicts Apple will surpass Nvidia.
  • Nvidia lost roughly $1 trillion in market cap.
  • 《Motley Fool》预测苹果将超越英伟达。
  • 英伟达市值近期损失约1万亿美元。
The race for the world's largest company reflects shifting tech dominance and investor confidence in AI's long-term growth versus established giants. 争夺全球市值最大公司的竞争反映了科技主导地位的转变，以及投资者对AI长期增长与老牌巨头之间信心的权衡。
Vol 24h: $3,841 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued robust AI chip demand and strong Q2 earnings could propel Nvidia back to the world's largest company. 持续强劲的AI芯片需求和强劲的第二季度财报可能推动英伟达重回全球市值榜首。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Apple's resurgence and broader tech market corrections could see Nvidia's valuation decline further. 苹果的复苏以及更广泛的科技市场调整可能导致英伟达估值进一步下滑。
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500
#20 · Score 241

AMZN Low $240 Probability Jumps 亚马逊触及240美元低点概率飙升

28% +23.8%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hitting a $240 low by July 2026 surged by 23.8% to 28%. This movement was primarily driven by Amazon's new "fuel and logistics" surcharge and weaker-than-expected retail sales. 亚马逊（AMZN）在2026年7月前触及240美元低点的概率飙升23.8%至28%。这一变动主要受亚马逊新增“燃油和物流”附加费以及零售销售不及预期驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Amazon's new 3.5% "fuel and logistics" surcharge.
  • Retail sales last month rose less than expected.
  • 亚马逊新增3.5%“燃油和物流”附加费。
  • 上月零售销售增长低于预期。
These factors suggest potential headwinds for Amazon's revenue and profitability, reflecting broader consumer spending weakness and increased operational costs. This could pressure AMZN's stock price significantly. 这些因素预示亚马逊营收和盈利可能面临逆风，反映出消费者支出疲软和运营成本上升，可能对AMZN股价造成显著压力。
Vol 24h: $1,296 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Deteriorating consumer spending and Amazon's new fees could significantly reduce sales and profit margins, driving AMZN stock down to $240. 消费者支出恶化及亚马逊新增费用可能大幅削减销售和利润，推动AMZN股价跌至240美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong holiday sales or a robust economic rebound could offset fee impacts and boost AMZN's stock, preventing a $240 low. 强劲的假日销售或经济强劲复苏可能抵消费用影响，提振AMZN股价，避免跌至240美元低点。
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500
#21 · Score 212

Solana Range Probability Zeroed Solana区间概率归零

0% -20.8%

Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 17?

The probability for Solana to trade between $60 and $70 by July 17 plummeted to 0% from 20.8%, primarily driven by concerns over broader crypto market weakness as Bitcoin and Ethereum show "exit signals" (KITCO). This indicates strong market conviction for a price movement outside this range. Solana在7月17日价格介于60至70美元的概率从20.8%骤降至0%，主要受比特币和以太坊出现“退出信号”预示更广泛加密市场疲软的担忧驱动。这表明市场强烈预期Solana价格将大幅超出此区间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin/Ethereum "exit signals" build (KITCO).
  • New Pepeto crypto bridge connects to Solana.
  • Broader crypto market uncertainty.
  • 比特币/以太坊出现“退出信号”。
  • 新加密项目Pepeto连接Solana。
  • 加密市场整体不确定性。
This sharp drop reflects strong market conviction that Solana's price will move significantly outside the $60-$70 range, indicating high volatility or a decisive directional shift for the asset. 这一急剧下降反映了市场强烈认为Solana价格将显著超出60-70美元区间，预示着该资产的高度波动性或决定性方向转变。
Vol 24h: $5,723 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New projects like Pepeto building cross-chain bridges could drive Solana's price significantly above $70. 像Pepeto这样的新项目通过跨链桥连接Solana，可能推动其价格显著突破70美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 "Exit signals" for Bitcoin and Ethereum suggest a broader market downturn, likely pulling Solana below $60. 比特币和以太坊的“退出信号”预示着更广泛的市场低迷，可能将Solana价格拉低至60美元以下。
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500
#22 · Score 199

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 13 2026? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 13 2026?

34% +19.6%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,369 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 196

Netflix Stock Plunges on Weak Forecast Netflix股价因疲软预测暴跌

28% +19.3%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

Netflix's stock price, currently $73.68, saw a significant increase in probability to hit $60 after its recent earnings report. A revenue miss and weak growth forecast disappointed Wall Street, causing the stock to tumble 9%. Netflix股价目前为73.68美元，在近期财报发布后，其跌至60美元的可能性显著增加。营收不及预期和疲软的增长预测令华尔街失望，导致股价下跌9%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Q2 revenue miss disappointed Wall Street
  • Weak earnings forecast deepened growth doubts
  • Stock tumbled 9% post-earnings report
  • 第二季度营收不及预期
  • 疲软盈利预测加深增长疑虑
  • 财报后股价下跌9%
Continued investor skepticism about Netflix's growth trajectory could lead to further stock depreciation, impacting its market valuation and strategic flexibility. 投资者对Netflix增长前景的持续怀疑可能导致股价进一步贬值，影响其市场估值和战略灵活性。
Vol 24h: $1,238 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Netflix's Q2 reported higher profits, suggesting fundamental strength could stabilize the stock above $60. Netflix第二季度利润增长，基本面可能支撑股价，使其保持在60美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Weak earnings forecast and revenue miss deepen growth doubts, potentially extending the recent 9% stock tumble to $60. 疲软的盈利预测和营收不及预期加深增长疑虑，可能使股价从近期9%的跌幅继续下探至60美元。
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500
#24 · Score 180

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026? Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

13% -17.5%

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $65,589 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 179

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of July 13 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of July 13 2026?

22% +17.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $4,004 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 174

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

34% +17.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

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Vol 24h: $9,473 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 174

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24,

32% +17.0%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,415 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 168

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?

27% +16.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?

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Vol 24h: $1,421 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 148

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July? Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?

31% -14.5%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,341 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 146

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb

32% +14.1%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $41,773 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 103

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31? Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?

6% -10.0%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,615 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 95

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31? Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31?

18% +9.0%

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $44,459 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。