AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jun 27, 2026 11:12 UTC
#1 · Score 685

Iran Confirms Shipping Strike 伊朗确认袭击船只

80% +68.0%

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

The probability surged to 80% as Iran reportedly struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, directly fulfilling the market condition. This action followed Iran's claims of striking US-linked targets on June 27 in response to US attacks. 市场概率飙升至80%，因有报道称伊朗周四在霍尔木兹海峡袭击了一艘船只，直接满足了市场条件。此前，伊朗声称已于6月27日打击与美国相关的目标以回应美方袭击。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran claimed striking US-linked targets on June 27.
  • Bahrain reported a drone attack amid regional tensions.
  • US carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran.
  • 伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击了一艘船只。
  • 伊朗声称于6月27日打击了美国相关目标。
  • 巴林报告无人机袭击加剧地区紧张。
  • 美国对伊朗进行了报复性打击。
This escalation significantly threatens global shipping lanes and energy supplies, potentially leading to broader regional conflict and economic instability. 此次升级严重威胁全球航运和能源供应，可能导致更广泛的地区冲突和经济不稳定。
Vol 24h: $89,399 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's confirmed strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz directly fulfills the market condition by June 27. 伊朗已确认在霍尔木兹海峡袭击船只，直接满足6月27日前市场条件。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The market might be overstating the 'success' or specific timing, or initial reports could be inaccurate. 市场可能高估了袭击的“成功”程度或具体时间，或初步报告不准确。
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500
#2 · Score 399

NFLX $70 Low Probability Plunges 网飞股价触及70美元低点概率骤降

10% -39.6%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

The probability of NFLX hitting a $70 low in June dropped by 39.6% to 10% following multiple MediaPost reports that Netflix's monthly subscriber churn remains at a "best" or "lowest" 2%. This positive data point eased fears of a significant subscriber exodus that would drive the stock price down. 网飞(NFLX)在6月触及70美元低点的概率骤降39.6%至10%，此前MediaPost多篇报道称其月度用户流失率保持在“最佳”或“最低”的2%。这一积极数据缓解了市场对用户大量流失导致股价暴跌的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netflix's monthly subscriber churn reported at a "best" 2%.
  • MediaPost articles highlight stable subscriber retention.
  • Reduced fear of a severe subscriber exodus.
  • 网飞月度用户流失率报告为“最佳”2%。
  • MediaPost文章强调用户留存稳定。
  • 大规模用户流失的担忧有所减轻。
Stable subscriber metrics are crucial for streaming valuation, indicating resilience against market pressures and competitor challenges. 稳定的用户指标对流媒体公司估值至关重要，表明其抵御市场压力和竞争挑战的能力。
Vol 24h: $691 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued low subscriber churn and new content initiatives will prevent a steep price decline. 持续的低用户流失率和新内容将阻止股价大幅下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market weakness or unexpected negative news could still drive NFLX to $70. 尽管目前流失率较低，但市场疲软或意外负面消息仍可能推动NFLX跌至70美元。
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500
#3 · Score 387

PLTR Rebound Bets Surge PLTR反弹预期飙升

88% +38.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $114 in July?

The probability of Palantir hitting $114 in July surged to 88% despite recent steep declines. This significant increase is driven by a positive analyst forecast from 24/7 Wall St. suggesting 'room to run' after its 36% year-to-date fall. 尽管近期股价大幅下跌，但Palantir在7月达到114美元的概率飙升至88%。这一显著增长主要受24/7 Wall St.积极分析预测的推动，该预测认为在股价年内下跌36%后，仍有“上涨空间”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 24/7 Wall St. 'Buy' rating
  • Analyst forecast of 'room to run'
  • Anticipation of rebound after 30%+ June drop
  • 24/7 Wall St.给出“买入”评级
  • 分析师预测股价有“上涨空间”
  • 市场预期6月大跌后将反弹
Palantir's performance is a key indicator for investor confidence in AI software companies, especially after significant market corrections. Palantir的表现是衡量投资者对AI软件公司信心的关键指标，尤其是在市场大幅调整之后。
Vol 24h: $750 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong analyst 'Buy' ratings and the belief that the recent steep sell-off presents a prime rebound opportunity could push PLTR to $114. 强劲的分析师“买入”评级和市场认为近期大幅抛售提供了绝佳反弹机会，可能推动PLTR达到114美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent selling pressure, evidenced by seven straight sessions of declines and Michael Burry's short, could prevent a rebound. 持续的抛售压力，加上连续七个交易日下跌以及Michael Burry做空，可能阻碍股价反弹。
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500
#4 · Score 378

Apple's Rank Plummets on Price Hike Fears 苹果排名因涨价担忧暴跌

34% -37.5%

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Apple's probability to be the third-largest company by market cap on June 30 dropped sharply to 34% from over 70%. This significant decline was primarily driven by investor concerns following Apple's announcement of bigger-than-expected price hikes on MacBooks and iPads, which led to a substantial slide in its shares. 苹果在6月30日成为全球第三大市值公司的可能性急剧下降至34%。这一显著跌幅主要源于投资者对苹果宣布MacBook和iPad大幅涨价的担忧，导致其股价大幅下滑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Apple Mac and iPad price hikes slammed shares.
  • Fears of higher iPhone prices emerged.
  • Alphabet's Dow inclusion boosts competitor profile.
  • 苹果Mac和iPad涨价重创股价。
  • 市场担忧iPhone价格将上涨。
  • Alphabet纳入道指提升竞争对手地位。
Apple's market cap ranking is a key indicator of its financial health and investor confidence, impacting its influence in the global tech sector and broader economy. A sustained drop could signal challenges in its pricing strategy and consumer demand. 苹果市值排名是其财务健康和投资者信心的关键指标，影响其在全球科技领域和更广泛经济中的影响力。持续下跌可能预示其定价策略和消费者需求面临挑战。
Vol 24h: $1,509 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong iPhone demand and new product launches could quickly reverse recent stock declines, boosting Apple's market cap. 强劲的iPhone需求和新产品发布可能迅速扭转近期股价跌势，提振苹果市值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued price increases and consumer resistance could further depress Apple's stock, making it difficult to hold a top-three spot. 持续涨价和消费者抵制可能进一步压低苹果股价，使其难以保持前三地位。
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500
#5 · Score 348

Brazil Rate Pause Probability Surges 巴西利率暂停概率飙升

50% +34.5%

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?

The probability of the Bank of Brazil making no change to the Selic rate in September has jumped to 50%, driven by increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for the remainder of the year. 巴西央行9月维持Selic利率不变的概率已跃升至50%，主要原因是市场普遍预期美联储今年将维持利率不变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US Fed widely expected to hold rates this year
  • IMF supports Fed's steady interest rate stance
  • Reduced global tightening pressure on emerging markets
  • 市场普遍预期美联储今年将维持利率不变
  • 国际货币基金组织支持美联储稳定利率立场
  • 全球紧缩压力减轻，利好新兴市场
A pause in Brazil's Selic rate cycle impacts inflation, economic growth, and investment decisions, signaling potential stability for businesses and consumers. 巴西Selic利率周期的暂停将影响通胀、经济增长和投资决策，预示着企业和消费者可能迎来稳定期。
Vol 24h: $996 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Cooling global inflation and the Fed's expected rate pause provide BoB room to assess domestic conditions without external pressure. 全球通胀降温及美联储暂停加息预期，为巴西央行评估国内经济提供空间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent domestic inflation or unexpected economic data could force BoB to resume rate hikes in September. 巴西国内通胀持续高企或经济数据意外恶化，可能迫使央行9月恢复加息。
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500
#6 · Score 334

Alphabet's #2 Market Cap Hopes Dim 谷歌市值第二希望减弱

32% -33.0%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

The probability of Alphabet becoming the world's second-largest company by market cap dropped significantly to 32%, primarily driven by a broader "AI stock slump" and reports of its stock being "down from its recent peak." 谷歌成为全球市值第二大公司的可能性降至32%，主要受“AI股票暴跌”及股价“从近期高点下跌”报道影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "AI stock slump" raises investor nervousness (Los Angeles Times).
  • Alphabet stock "down from its recent peak" (Barron's).
  • Massive AI data center spending raises profitability concerns.
  • “AI股票暴跌”引发投资者担忧（洛杉矶时报）。
  • 谷歌股价“从近期高点下跌”（巴伦周刊）。
  • 巨额AI数据中心投入引发盈利担忧。
Alphabet's market cap position reflects investor confidence in its AI strategy and core business strength against tech giants like Microsoft and Apple. 谷歌的市值排名反映了投资者对其AI战略和核心业务实力与微软、苹果等科技巨头的竞争信心。
Vol 24h: $6,931 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong core businesses and substantial AI investments could drive future growth, potentially boosted by Dow inclusion. 强大的核心业务和巨额AI投资有望推动未来增长，道指纳入也可能带来提振。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 AI stock slump, intense competition, and high AI spending may limit market cap growth by June 30. AI股票暴跌、激烈竞争及高昂AI支出可能限制其在6月30日前的市值增长。
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500
#7 · Score 280

Hormuz Transit Hopes Dim 霍尔木兹海峡通航前景黯淡

36% -27.5%

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

The probability of 60 ships transiting Hormuz by June 2026 plummeted 27.5% to 36% as Iran struck a vessel and paused escort operations, signaling escalating risks. This follows reports of an "opening" for shipping closing and IRGC warnings against unapproved routes. 霍尔木兹海峡在2026年6月前单日60艘船只通航的概率骤降27.5%至36%，原因是伊朗袭击了一艘船只并暂停了护航行动，预示风险升级。此前有报道称航运“窗口期”正在关闭，且伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告不要使用未经批准的航线。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran struck a vessel in Strait of Hormuz.
  • Escort operations in Strait paused.
  • IRGC warned against new Hormuz routes.
  • "Opening" for shipping in Strait closing.
  • 伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡船只。
  • 海峡护航行动暂停。
  • 伊斯兰革命卫队警告新航线。
  • 海峡航运“窗口期”关闭。
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil chokepoint; disruptions here significantly impact energy markets and international trade stability. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球关键石油咽喉，其中断将严重影响能源市场和国际贸易稳定。
Vol 24h: $154,168 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Coordinated large-scale evacuation schemes, like the Iran-Oman plan, could temporarily push daily ship transits to 60 or more. 伊朗和阿曼等协调的大规模撤离计划，可能暂时将每日船只通过量推高至60艘或更多。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating military actions, such as Iran striking a vessel, and IRGC warnings severely deter commercial shipping, making 60 transits highly unlikely. 伊朗袭击船只及革命卫队警告，严重阻碍商业航运，使60艘通航极不可能。
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500
#8 · Score 275

Crypto Selloff Sinks Ethereum Outlook 加密货币抛售，以太坊前景黯淡

22% -27.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on June 27?

The probability of Ethereum being up on June 27 plummeted by 27% to 22%, driven by a broad crypto selloff led by Ether itself and Bitcoin's fall to $59,000. Over $1 billion in crypto liquidations amid geopolitical tensions further solidified bearish sentiment. 以太坊在6月27日上涨的概率暴跌27%至22%，主要受以太坊自身领跌的广泛加密货币抛售以及比特币跌至59,000美元的驱动。地缘政治紧张局势下超过10亿美元加密货币被清算，进一步加剧了看跌情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ether leading broad crypto selloff
  • Bitcoin tests $59,000, $1B+ liquidations
  • Risk-off pressure, stablecoin dominance
  • Geopolitical tensions fuel market fear
  • 以太坊领跌加密货币抛售
  • 比特币跌破5.9万美元，超10亿清算
  • 避险情绪升温，稳定币主导
  • 地缘政治紧张加剧市场恐慌
This significant drop reflects widespread risk aversion in the crypto market, potentially signaling further downside for major cryptocurrencies. It highlights how macro factors like geopolitical tensions impact digital assets. 这一显著下跌反映了加密市场普遍的避险情绪，可能预示着主要加密货币将面临进一步的下行压力。它凸显了地缘政治等宏观因素对数字资产的影响。
Vol 24h: $35,957 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A swift recovery in Bitcoin above $60,000 could trigger a broader market rebound for Ethereum. 比特币迅速回升至6万美元以上，可能带动以太坊等加密货币市场反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical tensions and sustained "risk-off" sentiment will likely push Ethereum prices further down. 地缘政治紧张持续及避险情绪不减，以太坊价格恐将进一步下跌。
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500
#9 · Score 260

Bitcoin Dip Risk Recedes 比特币下跌风险减弱

23% -25.5%

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in June decreased by 25.5% to 23%, primarily because Bitcoin slipped near $58,000 but then recovered, as reported by CoinDesk. This recovery eased immediate concerns of a deeper plunge to the target level. 比特币在6月跌至57,500美元的可能性下降了25.5%至23%，主要原因是据CoinDesk报道，比特币在接近58,000美元后迅速反弹。此次反弹缓解了市场对价格进一步跌至目标水平的即时担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin recovered after slipping near $58,000.
  • Market found support above $57,500 threshold.
  • Despite selloff, immediate downside pressure eased.
  • 比特币触及58,000美元附近后反弹。
  • 市场在57,500美元上方找到支撑。
  • 尽管普遍抛售，即时下行压力减缓。
This indicates a potential stabilization of Bitcoin's price above critical support levels, offering a temporary reprieve from deeper bearish scenarios despite ongoing market volatility and broader economic concerns. 这表明比特币价格可能在关键支撑位上方企稳，尽管市场持续波动和宏观经济担忧，但暂时避免了更深度的看跌情景。
Vol 24h: $114,819 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's resilience near $58,000 suggests strong buying interest, potentially preventing further dips below $57,500. 比特币在58,000美元附近反弹，买盘强劲，有望守住57,500美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions and a broad crypto selloff could still push Bitcoin below $57,500 before June ends. 地缘政治紧张及普遍抛售，或将比特币推至57,500美元以下。
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500
#10 · Score 223

ABNB $148 June Target Surges 爱彼迎六月目标价148美元概率飙升

56% +22.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June?

Airbnb's probability of hitting $148 in June surged by 22% to 56%, likely driven by a generally positive market outlook highlighted in CNBC's "big stock stories" for upcoming trading sessions. The provided headlines lack specific ABNB-related catalysts. 爱彼迎（ABNB）六月触及148美元高点的概率飙升22%至56%，这可能受CNBC“大盘股故事”中强调的整体积极市场前景影响。提供的头条新闻缺乏爱彼迎具体的催化剂。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CNBC's "big stock stories" indicating positive market sentiment.
  • Anticipated strong performance in the broader stock market.
  • Absence of specific negative news impacting ABNB.
  • CNBC“大盘股故事”预示市场情绪积极。
  • 市场普遍预期大盘表现强劲。
  • 缺乏针对爱彼迎的具体负面消息。
This movement reflects investor confidence in the broader market's upward trajectory, potentially signaling a favorable environment for growth stocks like Airbnb. 这一变化反映了投资者对大盘上涨趋势的信心，可能预示着爱彼迎等成长股的有利环境。
Vol 24h: $1,100 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong summer travel demand and a robust overall market could easily push ABNB shares past $148 in June. 强劲的夏季旅游需求和整体市场表现良好，可能推动爱彼迎股价在六月轻松突破148美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any unexpected market downturn or negative travel sector news could halt ABNB's momentum below $148. 任何意想不到的市场回调或旅游业负面消息都可能阻止爱彼迎股价达到148美元。
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500
#11 · Score 219

Brazil Rate Cut Odds Jump 巴西降息预期大增

70% +21.5%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

The probability of the Bank of Brazil cutting the Selic rate by 25 bps in August surged to 70%, driven by increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. Recent headlines indicate the IMF supports the Fed's pause, creating a more favorable global environment for emerging market rate cuts. 巴西央行8月降息25个基点的可能性升至70%，主要受美联储预计将维持利率不变的预期推动。最新消息显示，国际货币基金组织支持美联储暂停加息，为新兴市场降息创造了更有利的环境。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fed expected to hold rates steady, per Reuters poll
  • IMF chief economist supports Fed's rate guidance reduction
  • Global central bank pause provides room for Brazil to cut
  • 路透调查显示美联储料维持利率
  • IMF支持美联储调整利率指引
  • 全球央行暂停加息为巴西降息留空间
A Selic rate cut would signal easing inflationary pressures in Brazil and could stimulate economic growth, impacting investment and consumer spending. 塞利克利率下调将预示巴西通胀压力缓解，并可能刺激经济增长，影响投资和消费者支出。
Vol 24h: $4,128 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent disinflation in Brazil and the Fed's expected pause provide ample room for the Bank of Brazil to initiate a rate cut. 巴西持续的通胀放缓及美联储的预期暂停，为巴西央行启动降息提供了充足空间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil or a sudden hawkish shift by the Fed could delay or prevent a Selic rate cut. 巴西通胀超预期或美联储突然转向鹰派，可能推迟或阻止塞利克利率下调。
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500
#12 · Score 195

Market Cools, Ornn Index Range More Likely 市场降温，Ornn指数区间概率增

25% +19.1%

Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?

The probability of the Ornn H200 Index landing between $5.00 and $6.00 by June 30, 2026, surged by 19.1% to 25%. This increase is primarily driven by global profit-taking in equity markets, particularly after recent AI-driven rallies, suggesting a market stabilization within this range. Ornn H200指数在2026年6月30日介于5.00美元至6.00美元之间的概率飙升19.1%至25%。这主要受全球股市，特别是近期AI驱动上涨后的获利回吐影响，预示市场将稳定在该区间内。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Global profit-taking after AI rallies
  • US tech giants' losses weigh on stocks
  • Infinity Natural Resources gets "Buy" rating
  • 全球市场AI涨势后获利回吐
  • 美国科技巨头下跌拖累股市
  • Infinity Natural Resources获“买入”评级
This shift indicates a potential cooling of market exuberance, suggesting investors are recalibrating growth expectations for the coming year. It reflects a broader market adjustment towards more moderate valuations. 这一变化表明市场狂热可能正在降温，投资者正在重新评估未来一年的增长预期。它反映出市场正向更温和的估值进行广泛调整。
Vol 24h: $4,225 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Widespread profit-taking after AI rallies makes the $5.00-$6.00 range more achievable as extreme growth expectations moderate. AI涨势后的广泛获利回吐使市场增长预期趋于温和，5.00-6.00美元区间更易实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued market volatility or a deeper correction could push the Ornn H200 Index below the $5.00 threshold. 持续的市场波动或更深度的回调可能将Ornn H200指数推至5.00美元以下。
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500
#13 · Score 194

Nat Gas $3.40 Target Dips 天然气3.40美元目标下降

36% -19.0%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

The probability of Natural Gas hitting $3.40 in June dropped significantly by 19.0% to 36%, primarily driven by a substantial increase in U.S. natural gas inventories. The EIA reported a 76 Bcf rise in weekly gas storage, signaling ample supply. 天然气在6月达到3.40美元的概率显著下降19.0%至36%，主要原因是美国天然气库存大幅增加。美国能源信息署报告称，周度天然气库存增加了760亿立方英尺，表明供应充足。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • U.S. gas storage rose by 76 Bcf
  • Natural gas futures trade rangebound
  • 美国天然气库存增760亿立方英尺
  • 天然气期货维持区间震荡
This movement reflects current supply-demand dynamics in the natural gas market, impacting energy costs for consumers and industrial users amid broader inflation concerns. 这一变化反映了天然气市场的供需动态，在通胀担忧加剧的背景下，将影响消费者和工业用户的能源成本。
Vol 24h: $3,926 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected heatwaves or supply disruptions could rapidly increase demand, pushing prices towards $3.40. 突发热浪或供应中断可能迅速推高需求，促使价格接近3.40美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued high inventories and mild weather will likely keep prices suppressed, preventing the $3.40 target. 持续高库存和温和天气可能抑制价格，使其难以达到3.40美元目标。
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500
#14 · Score 190

Bitcoin Holds $58K Support 比特币守住5.8万美元

98% +18.6%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28?

The probability surged to 98% because Bitcoin recovered after slipping near $58,000 amidst a broad crypto selloff, confirming strong support. This resilience, despite over $1 billion in liquidations, suggests a robust floor. 尽管加密货币市场普遍抛售，比特币在跌至5.8万美元附近后迅速反弹，确认了强劲支撑，因此概率飙升至98%。尽管有超过10亿美元的清算，这种韧性表明存在坚实底部。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin recovered after testing $58,000.
  • Strong support confirmed at $58,000.
  • Resilience shown despite $1B+ liquidations.
  • 比特币测试5.8万美元后反弹。
  • 5.8万美元被确认为强劲支撑。
  • 尽管清算超10亿美元仍显韧性。
This market reflects investor confidence in Bitcoin's immediate price floor amidst broader market volatility and geopolitical concerns. 该市场反映了投资者对比特币在市场波动和地缘政治担忧下的即时价格底线的信心。
Vol 24h: $29,098 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's proven resilience at $58,000 during a selloff confirms strong support, making it highly probable to stay above this level. 比特币在抛售中于5.8万美元展现的韧性确认强支撑，极有可能保持在该水平之上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical tensions and broader crypto selloffs could break the $58,000 support, invalidating the recovery. 持续的地缘政治紧张和更广泛的加密货币抛售可能突破5.8万美元支撑，使反弹失效。
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500
#15 · Score 188

NVDA Crash Imminent? Market Says Yes 英伟达暴跌？市场已断定

100% +18.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting a pre-split adjusted low of $192 in June surged to 100%, driven by a global tech sell-off and NVDA testing critical support levels. This indicates extreme market bearishness on the stock. 英伟达（NVDA）在6月触及拆股前调整后低点192美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受全球科技股抛售及英伟达测试关键支撑位影响。这表明市场对该股极度看空。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Global tech sell-off impacting chip stocks like NVDA.
  • Nvidia stock testing key support levels, signaling weakness.
  • Increased market anxiety over high tech valuations.
  • 全球科技股抛售潮影响英伟达等芯片股。
  • 英伟达股价测试关键支撑位，显示疲软。
  • 市场对高科技估值担忧加剧。
A severe drop in NVDA, a key AI bellwether, could trigger a broader tech market correction and erode confidence in the AI sector. 作为AI和科技风向标，英伟达的剧烈下跌可能引发更广泛的市场回调，并打击投资者对AI领域的信心。
Vol 24h: $2,604 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained robust demand for AI chips and a quick tech market rebound could prevent such a drastic decline. 强劲的AI芯片需求持续及科技市场迅速反弹，可能阻止股价如此大幅下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An intensifying global tech sell-off and NVDA breaking critical support levels would confirm the market's dire prediction. 全球科技股抛售潮加剧，英伟达跌破关键支撑位，将证实市场悲观预测。
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500
#16 · Score 186

Hormuz Normalization Hopes Fade 霍尔木兹：恢复正常希望减

26% -18.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15 has dropped significantly to 26%. This decline is primarily driven by recent reports, notably from CNN, suggesting that the temporary 'opening' for shipping may be closing, undermining earlier optimism. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月15日前恢复正常的可能性已大幅降至26%。这一下降主要是由于CNN等近期报道指出，航运的临时“开放”可能正在关闭，削弱了此前的乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CNN report: Hormuz 'opening' may be closing
  • CNBC highlights 'fragile confidence' in shipping recovery
  • Renewed security concerns impacting shipping confidence
  • CNN报道称海峡“开放”或关闭
  • CNBC指出航运复苏面临“脆弱信心”
  • 对海峡安全持续性的担忧加剧
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments, making its stability vital for energy markets and international trade. Continued instability could lead to higher energy prices and broader economic disruption. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉，其稳定对能源市场和国际贸易至关重要。持续的不稳定可能导致能源价格上涨和更广泛的经济中断。
Vol 24h: $332,708 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new, robust U.S.-Iran security agreement ensures sustained safe passage, boosting shipping confidence and traffic. 若美伊达成强有力安全协议，确保航运持续安全，将提振信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Renewed geopolitical tensions or a specific maritime incident disrupt current traffic, negating recent gains. 地缘政治紧张加剧或海上事件将扰乱交通，抵消近期进展。
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500
#17 · Score 159

Market Rebounds, Crash Risk Dims 市场反弹，崩盘风险减弱

26% -15.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

The probability of SPY hitting $720 in June decreased by 15.5% to 26% as market sentiment improved. This shift was primarily driven by an easing tech sell-off and a significant drop in oil prices. SPY在6月触及720美元低点的可能性下降15.5%至26%，因市场情绪好转。主要驱动因素是科技股抛售缓解和油价大幅下跌。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tech sell-off easing, stocks turning higher
  • Oil prices falling to 'Iran War Low'
  • Fundstrat's Tom Lee calls S&P 8,000
  • 科技股抛售缓解，股市走高
  • 油价跌至“伊朗战争低点”
  • Fundstrat的Tom Lee预测标普8000点
A lower probability of hitting $720 indicates reduced fears of a severe market downturn, reflecting improved economic outlook and investor confidence. This impacts investment strategies and broader economic stability. 触及720美元低点的可能性降低，表明对严重市场衰退的担忧减少，反映出经济前景和投资者信心改善。这影响投资策略和整体经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $6,669 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Easing tech sector pressures and falling oil prices could fuel a broader market rally, significantly reducing the likelihood of SPY hitting $720. 科技行业压力缓解和油价下跌可能推动更广泛的市场反弹，大幅降低SPY触及720美元的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent Mideast tensions or renewed tech weakness could trigger a sharp downturn, significantly increasing the likelihood of SPY hitting $720. 中东紧张局势持续或科技股再次走弱，可能引发急剧下跌，大幅增加SPY触及720美元的可能性。
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500
#18 · Score 154

US-Iran Meeting Hopes Dim 美伊会谈前景黯淡

47% -15.0%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting in Switzerland by September 2026 dropped 15% to 47%, driven by reports of ongoing disputes over funds from a recent agreement and US rhetoric downplaying the need for a deal. This indicates a significant setback in diplomatic progress despite a previously brokered agreement. 美伊在2026年9月前于瑞士举行外交会议的概率下降15%至47%，主要原因是双方就近期协议资金问题存在分歧，以及美国言论淡化协议必要性。这表明尽管此前达成协议，外交进展仍遭遇重大挫折。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US and Iran at odds over funds from memorandum.
  • VP JD Vance suggests US can win without Iran deal.
  • 'Challenges remain' despite recent US-Iran agreement.
  • 美伊就备忘录资金问题存在分歧。
  • 副总统万斯称美国有无协议皆可赢。
  • 近期美伊协议后挑战依然存在。
The state of US-Iran diplomatic engagement significantly impacts regional stability, oil markets, and global geopolitical dynamics. A lack of high-level meetings suggests continued tension and potential for escalation. 美伊外交接触状况对地区稳定、石油市场及全球地缘政治格局有重大影响。缺乏高级别会谈预示着紧张局势持续和潜在的升级风险。
Vol 24h: $25,612 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite current disputes, the existing interim agreement provides a framework for future high-level talks to address remaining challenges. 尽管存在分歧，现有临时协议为未来高级别会谈解决剩余挑战提供了基础。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Significant disagreements over funds and US rhetoric indicating less reliance on a deal make a diplomatic meeting less likely. 双方在资金问题上的重大分歧及美国淡化协议重要性的言论，使外交会议可能性降低。
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500
#19 · Score 148

RBNZ Pause Bets Surge 纽储行暂停加息预期大增

64% +14.5%

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?

The probability of the RBNZ holding its OCR steady in July jumped 14.5% to 64%, primarily driven by increasing expectations for the US Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes. Reuters polls and news reports highlighted economists' consensus for the Fed to hold rates. 纽储行7月维持官方现金利率不变的概率跃升14.5%至64%，主要受市场对美联储暂停加息预期增强的推动。路透社的调查和新闻报道显示，经济学家普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US Fed expected to hold rates in July (Reuters)
  • Economists predict Fed to hold rates this year
  • Reduced global central bank tightening pressure
  • 美联储预计7月维持利率不变（路透社）
  • 经济学家预测美联储今年将暂停加息
  • 全球央行紧缩压力减弱
This shift reflects a potential easing of global monetary tightening, impacting borrowing costs and economic outlook for New Zealand. It signals market confidence in RBNZ's current stance. 这一转变反映了全球货币紧缩政策可能放缓，将影响新西兰的借贷成本和经济前景，也表明市场对纽储行当前立场的信心。
Vol 24h: $1,209 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 RBNZ aligns with global central bank pause trend, as US Fed is expected to hold rates steady in July, easing external pressure. 纽储行将与全球央行暂停加息趋势保持一致，因美联储预计7月维持利率不变，外部压力减轻。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stubbornly high domestic inflation or stronger-than-expected economic data in New Zealand forces RBNZ to hike. 新西兰国内通胀居高不下或经济数据强于预期，迫使纽储行选择加息。
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500
#20 · Score 140

Hormuz Normalization Odds Plunge 霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常概率骤降

19% -13.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 7 has fallen to 19% after a 13.5% drop, driven by concerns that a recent shipping "opening" is now closing, as reported by CNN. Initial optimism from a U.S.-Iran deal and early shipping rebounds appears to be fading. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月7日前恢复正常的概率已降至19%，24小时内下跌13.5%，主要原因是CNN报道称近期出现的航运“窗口”可能正在关闭。此前美伊协议和初步航运反弹带来的乐观情绪正在消退。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CNN reports Strait of Hormuz "opening" may be closing.
  • Fragile confidence threatens sustained shipping recovery.
  • Reassessment of U.S.-Iran deal's long-term stability.
  • CNN报道称航运“窗口”或关闭。
  • 对持续复苏的信心脆弱。
  • 重新评估美伊协议稳定性。
Normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil supply and maritime trade stability, impacting energy prices and international relations. 霍尔木兹海峡交通正常化对全球石油供应和海上贸易稳定至关重要，影响能源价格和国际关系。
Vol 24h: $68,602 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new, verifiable U.S.-Iran agreement or significant de-escalation could rapidly restore confidence and traffic. 新的美伊协议或局势显著降级，可迅速恢复信心和航运。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating regional tensions or further incidents could completely halt shipping, preventing any return to normal by July 7. 地区紧张升级或新事件，可能完全中断航运，无法按期恢复。
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500
#21 · Score 132

Bitcoin Range Odds Plunge 比特币区间概率骤降

1% -12.7%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27?

Bitcoin's probability of being between $56k-$58k on June 27 plummeted to 1% as its price fell below $59,000. This sharp decline was driven by a broad crypto selloff and over $1 billion in liquidations amid geopolitical tensions. 比特币在6月27日介于5.6万至5.8万美元的概率暴跌至1%，因其价格跌破5.9万美元。此次急剧下降主要受加密货币普跌和地缘政治紧张局势下超过10亿美元清算事件驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin falls to $59,000
  • Over $1B crypto liquidations
  • Broad crypto market selloff
  • Geopolitical tensions rise
  • 比特币跌破5.9万美元
  • 超10亿美元加密资产清算
  • 加密货币市场普跌
  • 地缘政治局势紧张
This indicates strong bearish sentiment and a significant shift in market expectations, suggesting further downside or consolidation below the target range. 这表明市场看跌情绪强烈，预期发生重大转变，暗示价格可能进一步下跌或在目标区间下方盘整。
Vol 24h: $31,940 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A rapid recovery above $59,000, driven by fresh institutional buying or easing geopolitical tensions, could push Bitcoin back into the range. 若机构买盘或地缘政治紧张缓解，比特币迅速回升至5.9万美元以上，可能使其重回目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued risk-off pressure and technical "bear flag" patterns suggest Bitcoin will likely fall further below $56,000. 持续的避险压力和技术性“熊旗”形态预示比特币价格可能进一步跌破5.6万美元。
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500
#22 · Score 130

Bitcoin Probability Dips on Sell-Off 比特币上涨概率骤降

36% -12.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on June 27 dropped 12.5% to 36% as BTC fell to $59,000. This decline was primarily driven by over $1 billion in crypto liquidations and a major miner, Bitdeer, selling all its BTC. 比特币在6月27日上涨的概率下降12.5%至36%，因其跌至59,000美元。这主要受超过10亿美元的加密货币清算以及矿企Bitdeer出售所有比特币的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Over $1B crypto liquidations
  • Bitcoin tests $59,000 support
  • Bitdeer sold all 253.9 BTC
  • Risk-off sentiment confirmed
  • 超10亿美元加密货币清算
  • 比特币测试59,000美元支撑
  • Bitdeer出售全部253.9枚BTC
  • 避险情绪得到确认
This movement reflects significant market fear and selling pressure, indicating a potential breakdown of key support levels which could lead to further price declines. It highlights the impact of large-scale liquidations and miner behavior on market stability. 这一走势反映了市场巨大的恐慌和抛售压力，预示着关键支撑位可能被跌破，从而导致价格进一步下跌。它突显了大规模清算和矿工行为对市场稳定的影响。
Vol 24h: $253,497 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could rebound if $59,000 holds as strong support, attracting new buyers and triggering short covering. 若59,000美元支撑位守住，比特币可能反弹，吸引新买家并引发空头回补。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure from liquidations and miner sales could break $59,000, pushing Bitcoin significantly lower. 清算和矿工抛售的持续压力可能突破59,000美元，推动比特币大幅走低。
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500
#23 · Score 130

EWY Low Target Less Likely EWY触及低点可能性下降

9% -12.7%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June?

The probability of the South Korea ETF (EWY) hitting a $174 low in June dropped by 12.7%. This movement was primarily driven by a rebound in Asian tech shares and strong memory demand in South Korea. 韩国ETF (EWY) 六月触及174美元低点的可能性下降12.7%。这主要受亚洲科技股反弹及韩国强劲内存需求驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Asian tech shares rebound
  • Strong S. Korean memory demand
  • 亚洲科技股反弹
  • 韩国内存需求强劲
EWY's performance reflects South Korea's export-driven economy, particularly its crucial semiconductor and tech sectors. EWY的表现反映了韩国出口导向型经济，尤其是其关键的半导体和科技行业。
Vol 24h: $4,666 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained strong memory demand and a continued tech sector rebound will keep EWY above $174. 持续强劲内存需求和科技板块反弹将使EWY保持在174美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Global profit-taking after AI rallies and a weakening KRW could still push EWY towards $174. 全球AI行情获利了结及韩元走弱仍可能推动EWY跌向174美元。
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500
#24 · Score 126

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

8% -12.2%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,337 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 115

Hormuz Traffic Normalcy Doubts Rise 霍尔木兹海峡交通恢复正常存疑

48% -11.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31st dropped significantly to 48%, indicating increased investor concern over regional stability. This decline suggests a re-evaluation of persistent geopolitical risks, rather than a single event. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月31日前恢复正常的可能性显著下降至48%，表明投资者对地区稳定性的担忧加剧。此次下跌反映了对持续地缘政治风险的重新评估，而非单一事件驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ongoing Houthi attacks impacting Red Sea shipping.
  • Escalating rhetoric between Iran and Western powers.
  • Absence of de-escalation efforts in regional conflicts.
  • 胡塞武装持续袭击红海航运。
  • 伊朗与西方国家言辞交锋升级。
  • 地区冲突缺乏明确降级迹象。
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, making its stability crucial for energy markets and global trade. Disruptions here could trigger significant economic repercussions worldwide. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉，其稳定对能源市场和全球贸易至关重要。任何中断都可能引发全球范围内的重大经济影响。
Vol 24h: $298,352 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Diplomatic breakthroughs or a significant de-escalation of regional tensions could swiftly restore confidence in shipping safety. 外交突破或地区紧张局势显著降级，可迅速恢复航运信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued regional conflicts or direct Iranian interference with shipping would further diminish prospects for normalcy. 地区冲突持续或伊朗直接干预航运，将进一步降低恢复正常的可能性。
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#26 · Score 112

Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?

99% +10.7%

Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $36,991 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#27 · Score 102

Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?

20% +9.8%

Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,868 Polymarket ↗
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#28 · Score 88

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

48% -8.5%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $768 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#29 · Score 87

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu

2% -8.3%

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,881 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#30 · Score 84

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

32% +8.0%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $13,391 Polymarket ↗
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#31 · Score 46

SpaceX Valuation Dips Post-IPO SpaceX估值下滑

2% -4.2%

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

The probability of SpaceX reaching a $1.5T valuation by June 30 has dropped to 2% following recent negative market sentiment. This decline is primarily driven by a global tech rout impacting SpaceX and its stock slipping after a $25 billion bond offering. SpaceX在6月30日前达到1.5万亿美元估值的可能性降至2%，主要受近期市场负面情绪影响。全球科技股暴跌冲击SpaceX，以及公司宣布250亿美元债券发行后股价下滑是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Global tech rout hits SpaceX valuation.
  • Elon Musk loses trillionaire status.
  • SpaceX stock slips post-$25B bond offering.
  • 全球科技股暴跌冲击SpaceX估值。
  • 埃隆·马斯克失去万亿富翁地位。
  • SpaceX发行250亿美元债券后股价下滑。
SpaceX's valuation trajectory reflects broader investor confidence in high-growth, capital-intensive space ventures and the overall health of the tech sector. Its performance could influence future private and public market activity for similar companies. SpaceX的估值走势反映了投资者对高增长、资本密集型航天企业的信心，以及科技行业的整体健康状况。其表现可能影响未来类似公司的私募和公开市场活动。
Vol 24h: $58,584 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite recent slips, the successful largest-ever IPO and $86B raised provide capital for growth, potentially pushing valuation towards $1.5T. 尽管近期下滑，史上最大规模IPO和860亿美元融资为增长提供资金，可能推动估值接近1.5万亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A global tech rout and recent stock slips indicate strong headwinds, making the $1.5T target by June 30 highly unlikely. 全球科技股暴跌和近期股价下滑表明阻力巨大，6月30日前达到1.5万亿美元目标极不可能。
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No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。