AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 11, 2026 07:04 UTC
#1 · Score 504

Bitcoin Downside Confirmed 比特币下跌趋势确立

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8PM ET

The market predicts Bitcoin will not be up by May 10, 8PM ET, with probability dropping to 0%. This sharp decline is driven by significant financial losses reported by Bitcoin-related entities. 市场预测比特币在5月10日晚8点前不会上涨，概率降至0%。这一急剧下降主要受比特币相关实体报告的重大财务损失驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump companies' consecutive Bitcoin losses
  • Core Scientific's $347M Q1 net loss
  • 特朗普公司比特币持续亏损
  • Core Scientific一季度净亏3.47亿美元
These reports highlight financial strain within the crypto ecosystem, potentially signaling broader challenges for Bitcoin's short-term valuation and investor confidence. 这些报告凸显了加密生态系统内部的财务压力，可能预示着比特币短期估值和投资者信心的更广泛挑战。
Vol 24h: $49,861 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite recent losses, institutional adoption and upcoming halving events could still drive Bitcoin higher. 尽管近期亏损，机构采用和即将到来的减半事件仍可能推高比特币价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent financial losses from key crypto players will continue to depress Bitcoin's price. 关键加密参与者持续的财务亏损将继续压低比特币价格。
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500
#2 · Score 504

Bitcoin Surges: Market Bets 100% Up 比特币飙升：市场押注100%上涨

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET

Bitcoin's prediction market shows a 100% probability for an "Up" movement by May 10, 9PM ET, driven by a significant surge in bullish sentiment. This dramatic shift, a +50% change in 24 hours, appears to be fueled by widespread promotional content like MarketBeat's "Top Bitcoin Stocks" suggesting a major positive development is now public. 比特币预测市场显示，到美国东部时间5月10日晚9点，比特币“上涨”的概率达到100%，这主要受到看涨情绪的显著推动。这一24小时内50%的剧烈变化，似乎是由MarketBeat等媒体发布的“顶级比特币股票”等广泛宣传内容所激发，暗示着一项重大利好已公之于众。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • MarketBeat's "Top Bitcoin Stocks" ad signals strong retail/institutional interest.
  • "The cat is out the bag" phrase implies a major, newly public bullish catalyst.
  • Overwhelming bullish sentiment overshadows negative mining sector news.
  • MarketBeat“顶级比特币股票”广告预示强劲市场兴趣。
  • “秘密已公开”暗示重大看涨催化剂浮出水面。
  • 压倒性看涨情绪盖过负面矿业新闻。
This extreme confidence suggests a significant, potentially unannounced, positive development has been priced in, or a massive speculative wave is underway. It highlights the market's ability to override negative sector news when a strong bullish narrative takes hold. 这种极度自信表明市场已消化了某个重大（可能尚未公布的）利好消息，或正经历大规模投机浪潮。它突显了当强劲看涨叙事占据主导时，市场能够超越负面行业新闻。
Vol 24h: $44,685 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong promotional pushes like MarketBeat's "Top Bitcoin Stocks" indicate a major bullish catalyst or widespread retail interest driving prices higher. MarketBeat等强劲宣传推动表明存在重大看涨催化剂或广泛散户兴趣，推高价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Significant losses reported by Core Scientific and Eric Trump's company highlight ongoing profitability challenges in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Core Scientific和埃里克·特朗普公司报告的巨额亏损，凸显比特币生态系统持续的盈利挑战。
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500
#3 · Score 504

Bitcoin Probability Plummets on Mining Losses 比特币上涨概率因亏损暴跌

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by May 10, 10 PM ET has dropped to 0% from 50% in 24 hours. This sharp decline is primarily driven by significant financial losses reported by major Bitcoin-related entities. 比特币在5月10日晚10点前上涨的概率在24小时内从50%降至0%。这一急剧下降主要受比特币相关实体报告的巨额财务亏损驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Core Scientific reported $347 million Q1 net loss.
  • Trump companies losing millions on Bitcoin.
  • Core Scientific一季度净亏损3.47亿美元。
  • 特朗普公司在比特币上损失数百万。
These reports highlight financial distress within the Bitcoin ecosystem, particularly among miners and corporate holders, potentially signaling broader market weakness and reduced investor confidence. 这些报告凸显了比特币生态系统内部的财务困境，尤其是在矿工和企业持有者中，可能预示着更广泛的市场疲软和投资者信心下降。
Vol 24h: $44,460 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite recent losses, long-term adoption and upcoming halving events could still drive Bitcoin price higher. 尽管近期亏损，长期采用和即将到来的减半事件仍可能推高比特币价格。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued financial struggles of mining firms and corporate holders will likely push Bitcoin prices further down. 矿业公司和企业持有者持续的财务困境可能进一步压低比特币价格。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $43,430 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11PM ET

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $34,121 Polymarket ↗
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500
#6 · Score 485

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026?

2% -48.1%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,993 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 444

Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?

83% +44.0%

Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $16,552 Polymarket ↗
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500
#8 · Score 368

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

97% +36.2%

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $146,933 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 277

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

100% +27.2%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $370,107 Polymarket ↗
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500
#10 · Score 250

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?

26% -24.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $291,169 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 213

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest

26% -21.0%

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,155 Polymarket ↗
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500
#12 · Score 194

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?

37% -19.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $12,802 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 184

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11?

68% +18.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $18,228 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 183

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 11? Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 11?

68% +18.0%

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $792 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 164

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

44% -16.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $15,426 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 145

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

14% -14.0%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $205,655 Polymarket ↗
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500
#17 · Score 145

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

86% +14.0%

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $162,321 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 138

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League

14% -13.5%

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,127 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 134

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?

44% -13.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $22,080 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 128

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie

86% +12.5%

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,187 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 126

S. Korea Hormuz Deployment Unlikely 韩国霍尔木兹部署可能性骤降

3% -12.2%

Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

The probability of South Korea sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 2026 plunged to 3%, driven by a reassessment of regional stability. The absence of new major escalations in the Persian Gulf has significantly reduced the perceived necessity for such a deployment. 韩国在2026年5月前向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰的可能性已跌至3%，主要原因是市场对地区稳定性的重新评估。波斯湾地区缺乏新的重大冲突升级，显著降低了此类部署的必要性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • No new major Persian Gulf escalations.
  • South Korea's North Korea security focus.
  • Seoul's preference for diplomatic engagement.
  • High political and economic deployment costs.
  • 波斯湾未出现新的重大升级。
  • 韩国安全重心仍是朝鲜半岛。
  • 首尔倾向于外交而非军事介入。
  • 海外军事部署成本高昂。
This market reflects global energy security and South Korea's commitment to international maritime stability in a critical chokepoint. 该市场反映全球能源安全及韩国在关键航道维护国际海事稳定的立场。
Vol 24h: $37,347 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A severe escalation in Persian Gulf tensions or direct threats to South Korean interests would increase deployment likelihood. 波斯湾紧张局势严重升级或韩国利益受直接威胁，将提高部署可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Sustained regional de-escalation and South Korea's continued focus on domestic priorities will keep probability low. 地区持续降温及韩国专注于国内事务，将使部署可能性保持低位。
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500
#22 · Score 126

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

40% -12.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $380,257 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 126

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

4% -12.0%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $314,450 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 125

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?

30% -12.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $46,228 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 115

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra

4% -11.0%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $193,800 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 103

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11?

38% -10.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $599 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 99

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?

84% +9.6%

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $816 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 96

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

14% -9.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,022,119 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 95

Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

32% +9.0%

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $75,068 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 94

Will Solana reach $100 in May? Will Solana reach $100 in May?

62% +9.0%

Will Solana reach $100 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $17,968 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 93

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

18% +9.0%

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,115 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。