AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 14, 2026 20:09 UTC
#1 · Score 868

IBM Earnings Beat Odds Collapse IBM盈利超预期概率暴跌

4% -86.5%

Will IBM (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?

The probability of IBM beating quarterly earnings plummeted to 4% after the company issued a preliminary warning that its Q2 earnings fell short of Wall Street's expectations. This direct corporate announcement triggered a massive sell-off in IBM shares. 在IBM发布第二季度盈利预警，称其业绩未达华尔街预期后，该公司盈利超预期的概率暴跌至4%。这一直接的公司声明引发了IBM股票的大规模抛售。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IBM issues preliminary Q2 earnings warning
  • Company states Q2 results fell short of expectations
  • IBM shares drop 17-25% post-warning
  • IBM发布第二季度盈利预警
  • 公司称Q2业绩未达预期
  • 预警后IBM股价下跌17-25%
This event highlights the immediate and severe market reaction to corporate earnings warnings, impacting investor confidence and stock valuation. It sets a negative tone for IBM's near-term performance and potentially for the broader tech sector. 此次事件凸显了市场对企业盈利预警的即时和剧烈反应，影响投资者信心和股票估值。它为IBM的近期表现乃至更广泛的科技行业定下了负面基调。
Vol 24h: $6,010 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Final results could be less negative than warned, slightly raising the slim chance of a technical beat against original consensus. 最终结果可能好于预警，略微提高技术性超预期机会。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 IBM's explicit warning of falling short of expectations makes a beat virtually impossible, suggesting 4% is still too high. IBM明确预警业绩不及预期，超越概率极低，4%仍显过高。
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500
#2 · Score 858

Russia's Pokrovka Capture Probability Soars 俄军攻占波克罗夫卡概率飙升

94% +85.3%

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?

The probability of Russia capturing Pokrovka by July 31 surged to 94%, driven by reports of significant Russian force expansion. This indicates a heightened offensive capability and intensified conflict. 俄罗斯攻占波克罗夫卡（Pokrovka）的概率飙升至94%，主要原因是俄罗斯军队规模显著扩张。这表明其进攻能力增强，冲突加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Russian force expansion in Ukraine
  • Ukraine opens new Sea of Azov front
  • Russia-Ukraine intensify strikes
  • 俄罗斯在乌克兰增兵
  • 乌克兰开辟亚速海新战线
  • 俄乌双方袭击强度加大
The capture of Pokrovka would represent a significant tactical victory for Russia, potentially opening further avenues for advance in the Donetsk region and impacting the broader war trajectory. 占领波克罗夫卡对俄罗斯而言将是重要的战术胜利，可能为其在顿涅茨克地区进一步推进打开通道，并影响整体战局。
Vol 24h: $65,136 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Russia's "return to mass" and intensified strikes will likely overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, securing Pokrovka by the deadline. 俄罗斯“大规模增兵”和加剧的攻势将压倒乌克兰防御，在7月31日前攻占波克罗夫卡。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ukrainian forces may successfully defend Pokrovka or launch effective counter-attacks, preventing its capture by July 31. 乌克兰军队可能成功防御或发起有效反击，阻止俄罗斯在7月31日前占领波克罗夫卡。
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500
#3 · Score 613

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026

34% -60.8%

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $44,734 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 576

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?

69% +57.1%

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $33,695 Polymarket ↗
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500
#5 · Score 573

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of July 13 2026 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of July 13 2026

100% +57.0%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,646 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 523

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of July 13 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of July 13 2026?

100% +51.9%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,095 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 505

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 14? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 14?

100% +50.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $122,018 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 478

Australian Market Confidence Soars 澳大利亚市场信心飙升

98% +47.5%

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on July 14?

The probability of EWY closing up on July 14 surged to 98% with a 47.5% increase, indicating overwhelming market confidence in Australian equities. This dramatic shift points to significant positive economic or corporate developments, despite the provided headlines being unrelated to financial markets. EWY在7月14日收涨的概率飙升至98%，24小时内增长47.5%，表明市场对澳大利亚股市充满信心。尽管提供的头条新闻与金融市场无关，但这一剧烈变化暗示了重大的积极经济或企业发展。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Inferred strong Australian economic data releases.
  • Anticipated favorable Reserve Bank of Australia policy.
  • Positive outlook for key commodity export prices.
  • Robust corporate earnings reports from major Australian firms.
  • 推测澳大利亚经济数据强劲发布。
  • 预期澳大利亚储备银行将采取有利政策。
  • 主要大宗商品出口价格前景乐观。
  • 澳大利亚主要公司强劲的企业盈利报告。
This signals a strong bullish sentiment for Australia's economic health and corporate performance, potentially attracting further investment into the region. 这预示着澳大利亚经济健康和企业表现的强烈看涨情绪，可能吸引更多投资进入该地区。
Vol 24h: $2,128 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong economic indicators and commodity demand will likely keep EWY's upward trajectory firm. 持续强劲的经济指标和大宗商品需求将可能维持EWY的上涨趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected negative global economic shocks or a downturn in commodity prices could quickly reverse this high probability. 意想不到的全球经济冲击或大宗商品价格下跌可能迅速逆转这一高概率。
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500
#9 · Score 477

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14? Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?

97% +47.3%

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,794 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 468

RKLB Up Probability Soars RKLB上涨概率飙升

96% +46.5%

Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on July 14?

Rocket Lab's 'up' probability for July 14 surged to 96%, a 46.5% increase, driven by market rebound sentiment despite prior 4% dip. Investors appear to be looking past recent sector-wide negative headlines. 7月14日Rocket Lab (RKLB) 上涨概率飙升至96%，24小时内增长46.5%，表明市场在经历此前4%下跌后出现强劲反弹。投资者似乎已消化近期行业负面消息。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Market rebound from RKLB's prior 4% dip.
  • Ongoing general space industry activity.
  • Absence of new specific RKLB negative news.
  • RKLB此前4%下跌后的市场反弹。
  • 持续的整体航天工业活动。
  • 缺乏新的RKLB具体负面消息。
Shows strong investor confidence in RKLB's resilience, potentially decoupling its performance from broader space sector volatility. 这表明投资者对RKLB的韧性充满信心，可能使其表现脱离更广泛的航天业波动。
Vol 24h: $2,115 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Market anticipates RKLB's rebound from recent dips, betting on company-specific strength overriding sector concerns. 市场预期RKLB将从近期下跌中反弹，押注公司自身实力将超越行业担忧。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader space sector weakness, exemplified by SpaceX's 5% fall, could still pull RKLB down. 更广泛的航天业疲软，如SpaceX下跌5%，仍可能拖累RKLB股价。
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500
#11 · Score 464

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 14? Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 14?

96% +46.0%

Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,328 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 463

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 14? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 14?

94% +45.9%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $47,683 Polymarket ↗
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500
#13 · Score 460

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 14? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 14?

6% -45.6%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,232 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 455

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 14? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 14?

95% +45.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $76,744 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 424

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 14? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 14?

99% +42.1%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 14?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,945 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 403

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on July 14? Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on July 14?

90% +40.0%

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on July 14?

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Vol 24h: $2,628 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 379

US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?

1% -37.4%

US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $258,844 Polymarket ↗
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500
#18 · Score 354

Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July? Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?

84% +35.0%

Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $29,162 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 348

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 13 2 Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 13 2

40% -34.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $804 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 348

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 13 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 13

88% +34.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $565 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 334

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET

18% -33.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET

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Vol 24h: $15,119 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 325

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July? Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?

90% +32.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?

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Vol 24h: $140,342 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 324

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on July 14? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on July 14?

0% -31.9%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on July 14?

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Vol 24h: $11,265 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 317

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet

90% +31.0%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $3,267,053 Polymarket ↗
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500
#25 · Score 310

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

33% -30.5%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $37,139 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 309

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 14? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 14?

100% +30.4%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 14?

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Vol 24h: $44,722 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 303

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of July 13 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of July 13 2026?

38% -30.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $909 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 283

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of July 13 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of July 13 2026?

8% -28.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of July 13 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,678 Polymarket ↗
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500
#29 · Score 283

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

8% -27.8%

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $102,752 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 281

Will Bank of America say "World Cup" during earnings call? Will Bank of America say "World Cup" during earnings call?

100% +27.8%

Will Bank of America say "World Cup" during earnings call?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,285 Polymarket ↗
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。