AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 12, 2026 09:47 UTC
#1 · Score 542

AMZN Low $272: Forecast Drives 100% Probability 亚马逊触及272美元低点：预测驱动100%概率

100% +53.9%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $272 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of Amazon (AMZN) hitting a low of $272 by August 10, 2026, surged to 100% due to a new forecast. This forecast explicitly targets $269.49 for that week, falling below the market's threshold. 亚马逊 (AMZN) 在2026年8月10日当周触及272美元低点的概率飙升至100%。一份最新预测明确指出，该周目标价为269.49美元，低于市场设定的阈值。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forecast target price for 08-10-2026: $269.49.
  • Jeff Bezos sold $4 billion in Amazon stock.
  • Amazon shares show prevailing negative dynamics.
  • AMZN experienced "5 Red Days In A Row."
  • 2026年8月10日目标价预测为269.49美元。
  • 杰夫·贝佐斯出售了40亿美元亚马逊股票。
  • 亚马逊股票呈现普遍负面走势。
  • 亚马逊股价连续“5个交易日下跌”。
This market reflects significant analyst conviction about Amazon's near-term valuation, potentially signaling broader tech sector headwinds or company-specific challenges. 该市场反映了分析师对亚马逊近期估值的强烈看法，可能预示着更广泛的科技行业逆风或公司特定挑战。
Vol 24h: $504 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The explicit forecast of $269.49 for August 10, 2026, directly below the $272 target, makes hitting the low highly probable. 2026年8月10日269.49美元的明确预测，低于272美元目标，使触及低点可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected positive news or a strong market rally could push AMZN above $272, preventing it from hitting the low. 意外利好消息或强劲市场反弹可能推高AMZN股价，使其无法触及272美元低点。
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500
#2 · Score 482

SOL Surges Past $70 Target SOL突破70美元区间

0% -47.8%

Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 12?

The probability of Solana being between $60-$70 by August 12 plummeted to 0% as SOL's price surged past $70. Recent reports show SOL trading near $73.79, with analysts eyeing further upside towards $82-$94. 索拉纳价格突破70美元，导致其在8月12日介于60-70美元之间的概率骤降至0%。最新数据显示SOL交易价接近73.79美元，分析师看好其进一步上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Solana currently trading near $73.79.
  • Analysts project SOL to eye $82-$94.
  • Strong support identified above $70.66.
  • 索拉纳当前交易价接近73.79美元。
  • 分析师预测SOL将看向82-94美元。
  • 70.66美元上方存在强劲支撑。
This movement reflects strong bullish sentiment for Solana, indicating market confidence in its current valuation and potential for further growth beyond the $70 mark. 这一走势反映了市场对索拉纳的强烈看涨情绪，表明市场对其当前估值和突破70美元后的增长潜力充满信心。
Vol 24h: $4,375 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Solana's current trading price near $73.79 and analyst targets of $82-$94 suggest it will remain above $70. SOL当前交易价接近73.79美元，分析师目标82-94美元，预示将维持在70美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A failure to hold current support levels could see SOL drop below $70, potentially even below $60. 若未能守住当前支撑位，SOL价格可能跌破70美元，甚至低于60美元。
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500
#3 · Score 440

Venezuela-Israel Recognition Surges 委内瑞拉承认以色列概率飙升

60% +43.5%

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

The probability of Venezuela recognizing Israel by December 31 surged to 60% from 38% (9 hours ago), primarily driven by the recent agreement to re-establish consular services after a 17-year diplomatic break. This diplomatic thaw, announced around August 11, signals a major shift in Caracas' foreign policy. 委内瑞拉在12月31日前承认以色列的概率从9小时前的38%飙升至60%，主要受两国于8月11日左右同意恢复中断17年的领事服务驱动。这一外交解冻标志着加拉加斯外交政策的重大转变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Venezuela and Israel resumed consular services.
  • Ended 17-year diplomatic break on August 11.
  • Major shift in Caracas' foreign policy stance.
  • 委内瑞拉与以色列恢复领事服务。
  • 8月11日结束17年外交中断。
  • 加拉加斯外交政策重大转变。
This potential recognition could reshape regional alliances and influence other non-recognizing nations, impacting geopolitical stability in Latin America and the Middle East. 此次潜在承认可能重塑地区联盟，影响其他未承认以色列的国家，从而影响拉美和中东的地缘政治稳定。
Vol 24h: $48,405 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Re-establishing consular services after 17 years strongly signals both nations' intent to fully normalize relations, making recognition highly likely. 中断17年后恢复领事服务，强烈预示两国全面正常化关系的意图，使承认极有可能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite resuming consular ties, full diplomatic recognition by year-end faces significant political hurdles and potential domestic opposition in Venezuela. 尽管恢复领事关系，委内瑞拉在年底前全面外交承认仍面临重大政治障碍和潜在国内反对。
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500
#4 · Score 419

Ethereum Up: Technicals & Momentum 以太坊上涨：技术支撑与势头

92% +41.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on August 12?

Ethereum's probability of being up by August 12 surged to 92% due to strong technical support and recent price gains. The W-bottom neckline at $1,800 is holding firmly, and ETH climbed 0.4% to $1,882.06 on August 11. 以太坊在8月12日前上涨的概率飙升至92%，主要得益于强劲的技术支撑和近期价格上涨。1800美元的W型底部颈线保持坚挺，且以太坊在8月11日上涨0.4%至1882.06美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ethereum climbed 0.4% to $1,882.06 on Aug 11.
  • W-bottom neckline at $1,800 holding firmly.
  • Double-bottom structure remains intact.
  • 以太坊8月11日上涨0.4%至1882.06美元。
  • 1800美元的W型底部颈线保持坚挺。
  • 双底结构依然存在。
This indicates strong investor confidence in Ethereum's short-term price stability and potential for further growth, despite broader market fluctuations. 这表明投资者对以太坊短期价格稳定性和进一步增长潜力充满信心，尽管市场波动。
Vol 24h: $30,313 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong technical support at $1,800 and recent price climb to $1,882.06 suggest continued upward momentum. 1800美元的强劲技术支撑和近期价格上涨预示着持续的上涨势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader crypto market volatility or a failure of the $1,800 support could quickly reverse current gains. 整体加密市场波动或1800美元支撑位失守可能迅速逆转当前涨幅。
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500
#5 · Score 358

Silver $67 Target Nears 白银67美元目标临近

84% +35.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of August 10 2026?

Silver's probability to hit $67 by August 10, 2026, surged by 35.5% to 84% as the metal currently trades at $63.38. This sharp increase is primarily driven by a bullish US employment report and a significant technical breakout earlier this week. 白银在2026年8月10日当周触及67美元的概率飙升35.5%至84%，目前交易价为63.38美元。此次大幅上涨主要受利好美国就业报告和本周早些时候的技术性突破推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bullish US employment report catalyst
  • Silver broke 50-day SMA earlier this week
  • Current price $63.38, close to $67 target
  • 利好美国就业报告推动
  • 白银突破50日均线
  • 现价63.38美元，接近67美元目标
The movement reflects strong investor confidence in precious metals, potentially signaling broader inflation concerns or economic uncertainty. Silver's performance often indicates industrial demand and safe-haven appeal. 这一走势反映了投资者对贵金属的强烈信心，可能预示着更广泛的通胀担忧或经济不确定性。白银的表现常作为工业需求和避险吸引力的指标。
Vol 24h: $2,518 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A bullish US employment report and silver's technical breakout to $63.38 make the $67 target highly probable this week. 利好美国就业报告和白银技术性突破至63.38美元，使本周达到67美元目标可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Silver could face strong resistance at $67, or unexpected negative economic data could quickly reverse its current momentum. 白银可能在67美元面临强劲阻力，或意外的负面经济数据可能迅速逆转其当前涨势。
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500
#6 · Score 332

Airbnb Soars on Strong Outlook 爱彼迎业绩强劲展望乐观

100% +33.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability surged to 100% as ABNB stock closed at a four-year high of $178.07 on August 7, 2026, driven by a strong Q2 earnings beat and a significantly raised full-year 2026 revenue outlook. This strong performance positions ABNB very close to the $186 target. 鉴于爱彼迎股票在2026年8月7日收盘价达到四年新高178.07美元，并因强劲的第二季度业绩和大幅上调的2026年全年营收展望，该预测市场概率飙升至100%。这一强劲表现使爱彼迎股价非常接近186美元的目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • ABNB stock jumped 17.43% to $178.07 on Aug 7.
  • Raised 2026 revenue growth outlook to "at least mid-teens".
  • Strong Q2 earnings beat and analyst upgrades.
  • Achieved a four-year high, indicating strong momentum.
  • 爱彼迎股价8月7日大涨17.43%至178.07美元。
  • 上调2026年营收增长预期至“至少中双位数”。
  • 第二季度业绩超预期并获分析师上调评级。
  • 股价创四年新高，显示强劲上涨势头。
This indicates robust global travel demand and Airbnb's strong operational performance, suggesting sustained growth potential in the global tourism sector. 这表明全球旅游需求旺盛以及爱彼迎强劲的运营表现，预示其在全球旅游业中具有持续增长潜力。
Vol 24h: $948 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong global travel demand and Airbnb's successful expansion into new markets will push the stock past $186. 全球旅游需求持续强劲，爱彼迎成功拓展新市场，将推动股价突破186美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unexpected economic downturn or increased regulatory scrutiny could halt growth, preventing ABNB from sustaining $186. 突发经济衰退或监管趋严可能阻碍增长，使爱彼迎股价难以维持186美元。
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500
#7 · Score 249

XRP Crashes Below $1 XRP跌破1美元

100% +24.4%

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August?

XRP is under severe selling pressure, crashing below $1.00 despite Bitcoin's stability. This dip is primarily driven by the U.S. Senate failing to vote on the CLARITY Act. 尽管比特币保持稳定，XRP仍面临巨大抛售压力，已跌破1美元。此次下跌主要受美国参议院未能就《CLARITY法案》进行投票驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Senate failed to vote on CLARITY Act
  • XRP ETF inflows collapsed 93 percent
  • XRP price crashed below $1.00
  • 参议院未能通过《CLARITY法案》
  • XRP ETF资金流入骤降93%
  • XRP价格已跌破1美元
The sustained dip below $1.00 signals a significant loss of investor confidence and regulatory uncertainty for XRP, impacting its future market position. 持续跌破1美元表明投资者对XRP信心严重丧失，监管不确定性将影响其未来市场地位。
Vol 24h: $44,058 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The Senate's failure to pass the CLARITY Act and massive ETF outflows have already driven XRP below $1.00, confirming the dip. 参议院未通过《CLARITY法案》及ETF资金大量流出已将XRP推至1美元以下，确认下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unexpected positive regulatory development or strong buying pressure could quickly push XRP back above $1.00. 意外的积极监管进展或强劲买盘可能迅速将XRP推回1美元上方。
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500
#8 · Score 248

EWY Surges on Wall Street Gains EWY受华尔街上涨提振

74% +24.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of EWY hitting $172 by August 10, 2026, surged by 24.5% to 74%, primarily driven by Asian markets tracking strong Wall Street gains on Monday, August 10, 2026. This positive sentiment was reinforced by broader global market strength and rising oil prices. EWY在2026年8月10日前触及172美元的概率飙升24.5%至74%，主要受2026年8月10日亚洲股市跟随华尔街强劲上涨的推动。全球市场普遍的积极情绪和油价上涨进一步强化了这一趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Asian shares tracked Wall Street gains on Aug 10, 2026
  • World shares showed positive momentum after Wall Street
  • Oil prices bounced higher, signaling global demand
  • 亚洲股市跟随华尔街在8月10日上涨
  • 全球股市受华尔街表现提振
  • 油价反弹走高，预示全球需求强劲
This movement reflects the strong influence of US market performance on South Korean equities and global risk appetite. It indicates market confidence in continued economic recovery despite some underlying concerns. 这一走势反映了美国市场表现对韩国股市和全球风险偏好的强大影响力。它表明市场对经济持续复苏抱有信心，尽管存在一些潜在担忧。
Vol 24h: $2,441 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained Wall Street strength and robust global economic recovery will propel EWY towards $172. 华尔街持续走强和全球经济强劲复苏将推动EWY达到172美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 US employment shock and persistent high oil prices could trigger a global slowdown, hindering EWY's target. 美国就业冲击和持续高油价可能引发全球经济放缓，阻碍EWY实现目标。
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500
#9 · Score 233

Apple $300 Low Probability Surges 苹果股价跌至300美元概率飙升

49% +23.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of Apple (AAPL) hitting a low of $300 by August 10, 2026, surged 23% to 49% as Jefferies downgraded the stock. This downgrade followed reports of a significant 38% rise in iPhone 18 Pro component costs. 苹果(AAPL)股价在2026年8月10日当周触及300美元低点的可能性飙升23%至49%，此前杰富瑞下调了其股票评级。此次评级下调是由于iPhone 18 Pro组件成本上涨约38%的报告。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Jefferies downgraded Apple stock rating
  • iPhone 18 Pro component costs rose 38%
  • Apple stock already hovering near $300
  • 杰富瑞下调苹果股票评级
  • iPhone 18 Pro组件成本上涨38%
  • 苹果股价已徘徊在300美元附近
This movement reflects growing concerns over Apple's profitability and future growth prospects, potentially signaling a tougher environment for tech giants. 这一变动反映了市场对苹果盈利能力和未来增长前景日益增长的担忧，可能预示着科技巨头将面临更严峻的环境。
Vol 24h: $773 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite cost concerns, Apple's strong brand loyalty and potential for new revenue streams could prevent a sustained drop below $300. 尽管存在成本担忧，苹果强大的品牌忠诚度和潜在的新收入来源可能阻止股价持续跌破300美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising component costs and analyst downgrades indicate significant margin pressure, making a drop to or below $300 highly probable. 组件成本上升和分析师评级下调预示着巨大的利润压力，使得股价跌至或低于300美元的可能性极高。
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500
#10 · Score 227

Hyperliquid $76 August Target Dips Hyperliquid八月冲刺$76概率骤降

3% -22.3%

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

Hyperliquid's probability to reach $76 in August dropped significantly by 22.3% to 3%. This decline was driven by recent price predictions referencing a historical peak of $59 in September 2025, which is far below the current $76 target. Hyperliquid在八月达到$76的概率大幅下降22.3%至3%。这一下降主要受近期价格预测中提及的2025年9月历史峰值$59远低于当前$76目标价所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Historical peak of $59 cited
  • Target $76 appears highly ambitious
  • Long-term predictions below target
  • 提及历史峰值$59
  • $76目标显得过于激进
  • 长期预测低于目标价
This market reflects investor confidence in Hyperliquid's short-term growth potential, impacting broader crypto derivatives market sentiment and speculative interest. 该市场反映了投资者对Hyperliquid短期增长潜力的信心，影响更广泛的加密衍生品市场情绪和投机兴趣。
Vol 24h: $18,708 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden surge in crypto market liquidity or major platform upgrades could propel HYPE past $76 in August. 加密市场流动性突然激增或平台重大升级，可能推动HYPE在八月突破$76。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 HYPE's past performance, peaking at $59, suggests $76 in August is an overly ambitious target given current data. HYPE历史最高价仅为$59，表明八月达到$76是一个过于乐观的目标。
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500
#11 · Score 224

WTI $85 Target Confidence Drops WTI原油85美元目标信心下降

66% -22.0%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of WTI crude oil hitting $85 by August 10, 2026, fell by 22% to 66%. This decline was primarily driven by WTI trading at $78.70 per barrel on August 10, indicating it had not yet reached the target despite geopolitical tensions. WTI原油在2026年8月10日当周触及85美元高点的可能性下降了22%至66%。主要原因是8月10日WTI原油交易价格为每桶78.70美元，表明尽管地缘政治紧张，但尚未达到目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI at $78.70 on August 10, 2026
  • Market losing confidence in reaching $85 high
  • Geopolitical factors (Iran demands) insufficient for $85
  • 2026年8月10日WTI价格为78.70美元
  • 市场对触及85美元高点信心减弱
  • 伊朗要求未能充分推动价格至85美元
Oil price volatility significantly impacts global inflation, energy costs for consumers and businesses, and geopolitical stability, especially concerning major oil-producing regions. 油价波动对全球通胀、消费者和企业的能源成本以及地缘政治稳定，尤其是在主要产油区，具有重要影响。
Vol 24h: $5,348 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stalled Hormuz talks and a Saudi refinery strike could still trigger a sharp price surge, pushing WTI to $85 within the week. 霍尔木兹谈判停滞和沙特炼油厂罢工可能引发油价飙升，推动WTI在本周内达到85美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 WTI's current price of $78.70 on August 10 suggests insufficient momentum to hit $85, leading to reduced market confidence. 8月10日WTI价格为78.70美元，表明缺乏足够动力触及85美元，导致市场信心下降。
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500
#12 · Score 213

Silver's $70 Target Gains Momentum 白银70美元目标势头强劲

58% +21.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August?

The probability of Silver hitting $70 in August surged to 58% after XAG/USD cleared its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This technical breakout suggests renewed bullish momentum, with analysts now eyeing the $65 mark as the next resistance. 白银在突破50日简单移动平均线（SMA）后，8月份触及70美元的概率飙升至58%。这一技术性突破预示着新的看涨势头，分析师目前正关注65美元关口。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Silver clears 50-day SMA
  • Analysts eye $65 price target
  • Renewed technical bullish momentum
  • 白银突破50日均线
  • 分析师关注65美元目标
  • 技术面看涨势头增强
A move to $70 would signal significant strength in precious metals, potentially reflecting inflation concerns or safe-haven demand amidst broader economic shifts. 白银若能达到70美元，将预示贵金属市场强劲，可能反映出通胀担忧或经济转变中的避险需求。
Vol 24h: $1,901 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Silver's technical breakout above its 50-day SMA signals strong upward momentum towards the $70 target. 白银突破50日均线，技术面显示强劲上涨势头，有望冲击70美元目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Looming US CPI data could introduce volatility, potentially halting Silver's upward trajectory towards $70. 即将公布的美国CPI数据可能引发波动，或将阻止白银向70美元上涨。
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500
#13 · Score 199

RBA Rate Hike Odds Rise 澳联储加息预期升温

52% -19.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

The probability of no RBA rate change by November 2026 dropped by 19.5% to 52%, driven by the central bank's hawkish warning that persistent inflation risks could force future rate hikes. The RBA noted inflation remains above its target, expecting 3.6% by end-2026. 澳联储在2026年11月前不改变利率的概率下降19.5%至52%，主要原因是央行发出鹰派警告，称持续的通胀风险可能迫使未来加息。澳联储指出通胀仍高于其目标，预计到2026年底将达到3.6%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RBA warns inflation could force future rate hike.
  • Inflation remains above RBA's 2-3% target range.
  • Concerns over higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
  • 澳联储警告通胀可能迫使未来加息。
  • 通胀持续高于澳联储2-3%目标区间。
  • 对能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张担忧。
RBA interest rate decisions significantly impact borrowing costs, economic growth, and the Australian dollar, affecting businesses and households. 澳联储利率决策对借贷成本、经济增长和澳元有重大影响，关系到企业和家庭。
Vol 24h: $3,596 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Inflation eases significantly and sustainably below RBA's target, removing the need for further tightening. 通胀显著且持续低于澳联储目标，消除进一步紧缩的必要性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stubbornly high inflation or new economic shocks force the RBA to raise rates by November 2026. 顽固的高通胀或新的经济冲击迫使澳联储在2026年11月前加息。
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500
#14 · Score 195

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12? Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?

70% +19.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $102,332 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 159

Gold Surges: $4,500 Target in Sight 黄金飙升：4500美元目标可期

40% +15.5%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 10 2026?

Gold's probability of hitting $4,500 by August 2026 surged 15.5% to 40% following unexpectedly weak US jobs data and cooling Fed rate hike expectations. The LBMA's bullish $4,980 forecast further fueled the upward movement. 黄金在2026年8月前触及4500美元的概率上升15.5%至40%，主要受美国就业数据意外疲软和美联储加息预期降温推动。伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）预测金价将飙升至4980美元，进一步提振了市场情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Unexpectedly negative US Nonfarm Payrolls data
  • Cooling Federal Reserve rate hike expectations
  • LBMA's prediction of gold price surging to $4,980
  • 美国非农就业数据意外转负
  • 美联储加息预期降温
  • LBMA预测金价将飙升至4980美元
This movement reflects growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amidst economic uncertainty and potential monetary policy shifts. A sustained rally could signal broader inflation concerns or economic slowdown. 这一走势反映了投资者在经济不确定性和潜在货币政策转变下，对黄金作为避险资产的信心增强。持续上涨可能预示更广泛的通胀担忧或经济放缓。
Vol 24h: $3,382 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Weak US economic data and dovish Fed policy could continue to drive gold higher, supported by strong institutional forecasts like LBMA's $4,980 target. 疲软的美国经济数据和鸽派的美联储政策将继续推高金价，并得到LBMA等机构4980美元预测的支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger-than-expected economic recovery or hawkish Fed shifts could reverse gold's gains, making the $4,500 target unattainable. 强于预期的经济复苏或美联储转向鹰派政策可能逆转黄金涨势，使4500美元目标难以实现。
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500
#16 · Score 148

OpenAI's $7B Share Sale Boosts Trillion-Dollar IPO Hopes OpenAI 70亿股票交易推高万亿估值预期

28% +14.5%

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?

The probability of OpenAI's IPO valuation reaching $1.0T-$1.25T surged by 14.5% to 28%. This increase was primarily driven by the successful completion of a $7 billion secondary share sale, providing liquidity to employees and signaling strong investor confidence. OpenAI IPO估值达到1.0万亿至1.25万亿美元的概率在24小时内上升14.5%至28%。这一增长主要受OpenAI成功完成70亿美元员工股票出售的驱动，此举为员工提供了流动性并显示出强大的投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • OpenAI completed $7B employee share sale.
  • Strong investor demand for private OpenAI shares.
  • Pre-IPO liquidity event signals market readiness.
  • OpenAI完成70亿美元员工股票出售。
  • 私人市场对OpenAI股票需求强劲。
  • IPO前流动性事件预示市场成熟。
This valuation range would solidify OpenAI's position as a dominant force in the AI industry and set a new benchmark for tech IPOs. 这一估值范围将巩固OpenAI在AI行业的主导地位，并为科技IPO设定新的基准。
Vol 24h: $1,094 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Successful $7B share sale indicates robust private market demand and high implied valuation, supporting a trillion-dollar IPO. 成功的70亿美元股票出售表明私人市场需求旺盛，隐含估值高，支持万亿IPO。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense competition from Anthropic and others, coupled with regulatory scrutiny, could cap OpenAI's ultimate public valuation. Anthropic等竞争对手的激烈竞争以及监管审查可能限制OpenAI的最终上市估值。
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500
#17 · Score 143

Netflix $80 Target Probability Plummets Netflix $80 目标概率骤降

9% -14.0%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of Netflix (NFLX) hitting $80 by August 10, 2026, plummeted by 14% to 9% as post-target date reports on August 11, 2026, indicated the stock remained significantly below its 2-year peak. News confirmed NFLX shares were down 35% over the past 12 months, strongly suggesting the $80 target was not met. Netflix (NFLX) 股票在2026年8月10日当周达到80美元的概率骤降14%至9%，因8月11日的最新报告显示股价远低于两年高点。新闻证实NFLX股价在过去12个月下跌35%，强烈暗示未能达到80美元的目标价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Aug 11, 2026, reports confirm NFLX shares significantly down.
  • Netflix stock down 35% over past 12 months by Aug 11, 2026.
  • Shares remain 43% under 2-year peak, far from $80 target.
  • 2026年8月11日报告证实NFLX股价大幅下跌。
  • 截至2026年8月11日，Netflix股价在过去12个月下跌35%。
  • 股价仍比两年峰值低43%，远未达到80美元目标。
This movement reflects the market's immediate reaction to concrete performance data, essentially settling the outcome of the prediction market. It highlights the impact of post-event reporting on market probabilities. 此举反映了市场对具体业绩数据的即时反应，基本确定了预测市场的最终结果。它突显了事件后报告对市场概率的影响。
Vol 24h: $542 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A brief intraday high of $80 during the target week might have occurred, despite overall negative performance reported. 尽管整体表现不佳，目标周内可能出现短暂触及80美元的盘中高点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Post-target date reports confirm NFLX shares are significantly down, making a $80 high by August 10, 2026, highly improbable. 目标日期后报告证实NFLX股价大幅下跌，使得在2026年8月10日前达到80美元高点极不可能。
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500
#18 · Score 139

RBA September 2026 Rate Hold Surges 澳联储2026年9月维持利率概率飙升

90% +13.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?

The probability of the RBA holding rates in September 2026 surged to 90% after the RBA held rates at 4.35%. Traders interpreted the recent RBA meeting as less hawkish than feared, driving interest-rate swaps to price a higher chance of no change. 澳联储在最近一次会议上将利率维持在4.35%不变后，市场预测其在2026年9月维持利率的概率飙升至90%。交易员认为澳联储的立场不如预期鹰派，推动利率互换市场提高了不加息的预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RBA held rates at 4.35% recently.
  • Traders saw RBA as less hawkish.
  • Inflation data supported RBA rate hold.
  • 澳联储近期维持利率在4.35%。
  • 交易员认为澳联储立场偏鸽派。
  • 最新通胀数据支持澳联储不加息。
This market reflects expectations for Australia's monetary policy trajectory, impacting borrowing costs, economic growth, and investment decisions for years to come. 该市场反映了澳大利亚货币政策的预期走向，将影响未来几年的借贷成本、经济增长和投资决策。
Vol 24h: $3,690 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained low inflation and a cautious RBA approach will likely lead to continued rate holds through September 2026. 持续的低通胀和澳联储的谨慎态度将使其在2026年9月前继续维持利率不变。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected inflation resurgence or strong economic data could force the RBA to hike rates by September 2026. 意外的通胀反弹或强劲经济数据可能迫使澳联储在2026年9月前加息。
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500
#19 · Score 133

PLTR $180 Target Probability Drops 13% PLTR股价冲击180美元概率骤降13%

34% -13.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of PLTR hitting $180 this week dropped 13% to 34%, primarily driven by Finbold's AI predicting $178.76 by August 31 and Stone Fox Capital's bearish "Doubling Down On The Same Mistakes" article. PLTR本周触及180美元的概率下降13%至34%，主要受Finbold人工智能预测8月31日股价为178.76美元以及Stone Fox Capital发表负面文章“重蹈覆辙”的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Finbold AI predicts $178.76 by Aug 31, 2026.
  • Stone Fox Capital publishes bearish article.
  • PLTR's modest 1.87% gain to $175.23.
  • Finbold AI预测8月31日股价为178.76美元。
  • Stone Fox Capital发布看跌文章。
  • PLTR股价小幅上涨1.87%至175.23美元。
This movement reflects immediate investor sentiment and analyst outlook on Palantir's short-term performance, impacting trading strategies for the week. 这一波动反映了投资者对Palantir短期表现的即时情绪和分析师展望，影响本周交易策略。
Vol 24h: $1,712 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 PLTR's recent 1.87% gain to $175.23 suggests momentum, and strong underlying growth could push it past $180 this week. PLTR近期上涨1.87%至175.23美元显示出上涨势头，强劲的潜在增长可能推动本周突破180美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Finbold's AI prediction of $178.76 by Aug 31 and Stone Fox Capital's bearish report make $180 this week unlikely. Finbold AI预测8月31日为178.76美元，加上Stone Fox Capital的看跌报告，使本周达到180美元的可能性降低。
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500
#20 · Score 133

SPY Low $765 Probability Drops 标普500触及765点概率下降

37% -13.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of SPY hitting a low of $765 by August 10, 2026, decreased by 13% to 37%, driven by Tom Lee's bullish S&P 500 forecast of 7,900-8,000 for August and strong market performance. This positive outlook is further supported by projections of AI capital expenditure hitting $1 trillion. 标普500在2026年8月10日前触及765点低点的概率下降13%至37%，主要受Tom Lee预测标普500本月将达7,900-8,000点的乐观展望及市场强劲表现驱动。AI资本支出预计达1万亿美元的预测进一步支撑了这一积极前景。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tom Lee's S&P 500 8,000 forecast
  • S&P 500's strong August start (+3.1%)
  • Projected $1 trillion AI Capex
  • Tom Lee预测标普500达8000点
  • 标普500八月开局强劲上涨3.1%
  • AI资本支出预计达1万亿美元
This shift reflects market confidence in sustained growth, potentially overriding historical midterm election year pullbacks. It indicates investors are less concerned about a significant near-term market correction. 这一转变反映市场对持续增长的信心，可能超越了中期选举年的历史回调模式，表明投资者对近期大幅市场修正的担忧减少。
Vol 24h: $1,354 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Historical midterm election year pullbacks and potential economic slowdowns could still trigger a sharp correction towards $765. 中期选举年的历史回调模式和潜在经济放缓，仍可能引发市场大幅修正至765点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong corporate earnings, massive AI investment, and bullish analyst forecasts like Tom Lee's could propel the S&P 500 much higher. 强劲的企业盈利、大规模AI投资及Tom Lee等分析师的乐观预测，可能推动标普500大幅走高。
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500
#21 · Score 133

GOOGL $335 Low Probability Surges GOOGL触及335美元低点概率飙升

28% +13.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of GOOGL hitting a $335 low by August 2026 jumped 13.0% to 28% following a TradingKey analysis. This report explicitly forecast $335, citing a 17.7x P/E and technical trendline testing. 随着TradingKey分析报告发布，GOOGL在2026年8月前触及335美元低点的概率飙升13.0%至28%。该报告明确预测335美元，并提及17.7倍市盈率和技术趋势线测试。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • TradingKey's explicit $335 price forecast.
  • Forecasted 17.7x P/E implying valuation contraction.
  • Technical analysis indicating GOOGL 'testing trendline'.
  • TradingKey明确预测GOOGL股价为335美元。
  • 预测17.7倍市盈率暗示估值将大幅收缩。
  • 技术分析指出GOOGL正在“测试趋势线”。
This movement reflects growing investor concern about Alphabet's long-term growth trajectory and potential valuation compression, signaling significant future headwinds. 这一变化反映了投资者对Alphabet长期增长轨迹和潜在估值压缩的担忧加剧，预示着未来可能面临重大阻力。
Vol 24h: $963 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Alphabet's growth significantly decelerates due to competition and regulatory pressure, leading to a substantial P/E multiple contraction to 17.7x. 谷歌核心业务增长因竞争和监管压力显著放缓，导致市盈率大幅收缩至17.7倍。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Alphabet's AI innovations and cloud segment reaccelerate revenue, sustaining a premium valuation and preventing a deep price correction. 谷歌AI创新和云业务加速营收增长，维持高估值，避免股价深度回调。
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500
#22 · Score 114

Iran Direct Shipping Attack Unlikely 伊朗直接袭击航运可能性低

0% -10.9%

Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping by August 8, 2026, dropped to 0% from an assumed 10.9%. This sharp decline suggests market participants now believe Iran will avoid direct military action, despite escalating regional tensions and threats. 伊朗在2026年8月8日前成功袭击航运的概率从假设的10.9%降至0%。这一急剧下降表明，尽管地区紧张局势和威胁升级，市场参与者认为伊朗将避免直接军事行动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthi preparations to attack shipping suggest Iran may prefer proxy actions.
  • Iran's conditional Strait of Hormuz threat indicates political leverage, not direct targeting.
  • EU sanctions on Iran's military support could deter direct aggression.
  • 胡塞武装袭击航运准备，暗示伊朗或用代理人。
  • 伊朗条件性威胁霍尔木兹海峡，意在政治施压。
  • 欧盟对伊朗军事支持的制裁，或阻止其直接侵略。
This market reflects the perceived risk of direct military escalation by Iran in a critical global shipping lane, impacting oil prices and regional stability. 该市场反映了伊朗在中东关键航运线直接军事升级的感知风险，影响油价和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $20,327 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Heightened US-Iran friction and ongoing Middle East shipping threats could still lead Iran to directly target vessels. 美伊摩擦加剧和中东航运持续受威胁，可能促使伊朗采取直接袭击行动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran's reliance on proxies like Houthis and use of conditional threats may preclude direct military action by the deadline. 伊朗或继续利用胡塞武装等代理人，避免直接军事介入。
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500
#23 · Score 108

DC Home Value Probability Rises 华盛顿特区房价预测概率上升

40% +10.5%

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?

The probability of the DC Metro median home value landing between $518,000 and $524,000 by September 30 increased by 10.5% to 40%, driven by recent property valuations and ongoing market analysis. 华盛顿特区都会区中位数房价在9月30日介于51.8万至52.4万美元的概率上升10.5%至40%，主要受近期房产估值和市场分析驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Alexandria property valuation near $524,000
  • Active Worldstreet market analysis
  • Re-allocation of probabilities from adjacent ranges
  • 亚历山大房产估值接近52.4万美元
  • Worldstreet活跃市场分析
  • 相邻区间概率重新分配
This market reflects confidence in the stability of the DC Metro housing market, impacting homeowner equity and regional economic outlook. 该市场反映了对华盛顿特区房地产市场稳定性的信心，影响房主资产和区域经济前景。
Vol 24h: $2,446 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong demand and limited inventory could stabilize prices within the $518K-$524K range, pushing probability higher. 强劲需求和有限库存可能使房价稳定在51.8万至52.4万美元区间，推高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising interest rates or increased inventory could push median values below $518K or above $524K. 利率上升或库存增加可能使中位数房价跌破51.8万美元或突破52.4万美元。
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500
#24 · Score 104

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?

42% +10.0%

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $26,970 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 103

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of Augus Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of Augus

50% +10.0%

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of August 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,325 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 98

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026 Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026

18% +9.5%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,361 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 94

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

22% -9.0%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,192 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#28 · Score 93

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

66% +9.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $782 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 84

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

98% +7.8%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $738,351 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 83

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15 Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15

46% +8.0%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,066 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。