AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 15, 2026 20:35 UTC
#1 · Score 988

Silver Price Plunge to $76 by 2026 白银价格2026年跌至76美元

100% +98.4%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 Week of May 11 2026?

The probability of Silver (XAGUSD) hitting a low of $76 by May 2026 surged to 100% following strong bearish signals. Americas Gold and Silver's Q1 2026 report of record production and sales is the primary catalyst, signaling increased supply. 白银（XAGUSD）在2026年5月跌至76美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，主要受强劲看跌信号驱动。美洲金银公司2026年第一季度创纪录的产量和销售报告是核心催化剂，预示供应增加。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Americas Gold and Silver Q1 2026 record production
  • Recent 10% silver price plunge from highs
  • Rising yields causing 4.6% silver price drop
  • 美洲金银2026年一季度产量创新高
  • 近期白银价格从高点暴跌10%
  • 收益率上升导致白银价格下跌4.6%
This prediction indicates significant oversupply and macroeconomic headwinds for precious metals. It could signal a broader shift in commodity markets and investor sentiment. 这一预测表明贵金属市场面临严重的供应过剩和宏观经济逆风。这可能预示着大宗商品市场和投资者情绪的广泛转变。
Vol 24h: $8,098 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained record silver production and persistent high interest rates will drive prices down to $76. 持续创纪录的白银产量和高利率将推动价格跌至76美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen geopolitical instability or a sharp demand surge could prevent silver from falling to $76. 意外地缘政治不稳定或需求急剧增长可能阻止白银跌至76美元。
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500
#2 · Score 948

MSFT Price Surge Confirmed 微软股价飙升，目标价确认

100% +94.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of May 11 2026?

Microsoft's probability of hitting $427.50 by May 2026 surged to 100% following Bill Ackman's new stake and 'highly compelling' valuation call. Further confidence stemmed from LinkedIn's strategic workforce reduction amid an AI transition, signaling enhanced profitability. 微软在2026年5月前达到427.50美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受比尔·阿克曼披露新持股并称其估值“极具吸引力”的推动。LinkedIn为AI转型进行裁员，预示盈利能力提升，也增强了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bill Ackman reveals new Microsoft stake.
  • Ackman calls MSFT valuation 'highly compelling'.
  • LinkedIn announces workforce reduction for AI transition.
  • Strategic shift to enhance LinkedIn profitability.
  • 比尔·阿克曼披露微软新持股。
  • 阿克曼称微软估值“极具吸引力”。
  • LinkedIn宣布为AI转型裁员。
  • 战略调整旨在提升LinkedIn盈利。
This movement reflects strong institutional confidence in Microsoft's long-term growth trajectory, driven by strategic AI investments and robust valuation, potentially setting a new benchmark for tech giants. 这一走势反映了机构投资者对微软长期增长轨迹的强烈信心，得益于战略性AI投资和稳健估值，可能为科技巨头树立新标杆。
Vol 24h: $3,686 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bill Ackman's significant investment and 'highly compelling' valuation call provide strong institutional validation for MSFT's future growth. 比尔·阿克曼的重大投资和“极具吸引力”的估值判断，为微软未来增长提供了强劲的机构认可。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen economic downturns or increased regulatory scrutiny could hinder Microsoft's growth and prevent it from reaching the target. 意外的经济衰退或更严格的监管审查可能阻碍微软增长，使其无法达到目标价。
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500
#3 · Score 718

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?

100% +71.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $7,116 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 698

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?

1% -69.4%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $18,469 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 564

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15?

0% -56.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $73,727 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 530

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?

0% -52.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $208,343 Polymarket ↗
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500
#7 · Score 530

Ethereum Up Probability Hits Zero 以太坊上涨概率归零

0% -52.4%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?

The probability of Ethereum being "Up" on May 15 has plummeted to 0%, driven by strong market anticipation of negative economic data releases. Traders are bracing for potentially poor manufacturing data due on Friday, May 15. 5月15日以太坊“上涨”的概率已跌至0%，主要受市场对负面经济数据发布的强烈预期驱动。交易员正为周五（5月15日）可能公布的糟糕制造业数据做准备。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipation of negative US manufacturing data on May 15.
  • UK economists' forecast of Q3 growth stagnation.
  • Increased investor caution ahead of key economic reports.
  • 市场预期5月15日美国制造业数据不佳。
  • 英国经济学家预测第三季度经济将停滞。
  • 投资者在关键经济报告前趋于谨慎。
This extreme shift reflects a prevailing bearish sentiment for Ethereum, indicating broader concerns about economic headwinds impacting risk assets globally. 这一极端转变反映了市场对以太坊普遍的看跌情绪，预示着更广泛的经济逆风正在影响全球风险资产。
Vol 24h: $141,606 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpectedly positive US economic data on May 15 could trigger a rapid reversal, boosting Ethereum's price. 5月15日若美国经济数据意外向好，可能迅速扭转以太坊价格走势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong expectations of poor manufacturing data and global economic slowdown solidify Ethereum's downward trajectory. 对制造业数据不佳及全球经济放缓的强烈预期，巩固了以太坊的下跌趋势。
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500
#8 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $34,019 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 488

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?

2% -48.3%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?

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Vol 24h: $93,022 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 484

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?

2% -47.9%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $138,517 Polymarket ↗
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500
#11 · Score 475

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 15? Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 15?

3% -47.1%

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $20,083 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 472

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

76% +46.9%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,389 Polymarket ↗
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500
#13 · Score 449

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15?

0% -44.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $60,960 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 400

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?

0% -39.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $545,645 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 389

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on May 15? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on May 15?

4% -38.6%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,781 Polymarket ↗
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500
#16 · Score 369

Tesla FSD China Wobble Sinks May Target 特斯拉中国FSD不确定性拖累股价

28% -36.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?

The probability of TSLA hitting $465 in May dropped sharply by 36.5% to 28%. This decline is primarily driven by investor uncertainty regarding Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress in China and competitive pressure from rivals like Ford. 特斯拉(TSLA)五月触及465美元的概率在24小时内暴跌36.5%至28%。此次下跌主要受投资者对特斯拉全自动驾驶(FSD)在中国进展的不确定性以及福特等竞争对手压力的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Uncertainty over Tesla FSD China approval
  • Tesla stock 'wobbles' on FSD news
  • Ford's strong Q1 performance outshines Tesla
  • 特斯拉中国FSD谈判不确定
  • FSD消息致特斯拉股价波动
  • 福特Q1业绩强劲股价大涨
Tesla's FSD expansion into China is crucial for its growth and profitability, while competition impacts its market share and valuation. 特斯拉FSD在中国市场的扩张对其增长和盈利至关重要，而竞争则影响其市场份额和估值。
Vol 24h: $9,226 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Definitive FSD approval in China could ignite a massive rally, pushing TSLA towards $465. 中国FSD获得明确批准将引发股价大幅上涨，推动TSLA接近465美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued FSD delays in China and rising competition will prevent TSLA from reaching $465. FSD在中国持续延迟及竞争加剧将阻止TSLA达到465美元。
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500
#17 · Score 345

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?

16% -34.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $33,314 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 344

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 15? Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 15?

84% +34.0%

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $8,725 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 324

Gold's Improbable $4,600 May Low 黄金五月低点$4,600？

100% +31.9%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?

Prediction market for Gold (XAUUSD) surged to 100% probability for a $4,600 low in May, up 31.9% in 24 hours. This unprecedented consensus implies an immediate, massive re-pricing of gold or a fundamental market error. 黄金(XAUUSD)预测市场在24小时内飙升31.9%，达到100%概率，认为五月低点将触及$4,600。这一前所未有的共识暗示黄金将立即大幅重估，或市场存在根本性错误。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Unprecedented bullish consensus
  • Implied extreme systemic risk
  • Potential market question error
  • 前所未有的看涨共识
  • 隐含的极端系统性风险
  • 市场问题可能存在错误
This market's extreme pricing signals either an imminent, cataclysmic global event or a significant flaw in the prediction market's design or interpretation. 这一极端市场定价预示着即将发生的灾难性全球事件，或预测市场设计或解读存在重大缺陷。
Vol 24h: $20,104 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unforeseen global crisis or hyperinflationary shock drives gold prices far above $4,600, validating the market's extreme outlook. 无法预见的全球危机或恶性通胀冲击将黄金价格推高至$4,600以上，证实市场极端预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $4,600 May low target is fundamentally impossible, leading to a rapid probability correction as market participants realize the error. 五月$4,600低点目标根本不可能，市场参与者意识到错误后概率将迅速修正。
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500
#20 · Score 320

Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15? Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?

0% -31.4%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $121,185 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 316

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?

2% -31.1%

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $60,713 Polymarket ↗
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500
#22 · Score 308

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

22% -30.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,880 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 274

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $134? Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $134?

76% +27.0%

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above $134?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,913 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 270

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?

92% +26.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $161,811 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 248

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?

74% -24.3%

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $36,556 Polymarket ↗
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500
#26 · Score 239

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

89% +23.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $7,250 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 195

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?

78% -19.0%

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $56,962 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 190

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10% -18.5%

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $76,689 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 186

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

56% -18.2%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,383 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 166

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso

8% -16.3%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,342 Polymarket ↗
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500
#31 · Score 124

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

36% +12.0%

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,800 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。