AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 14, 2026 20:34 UTC
#1 · Score 790

ETH Price Certainty Surges 以太坊价格确定性飙升

100% +78.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14?


The probability for Ethereum to be above $2,300 by May 14 surged to 100% due to a highly bullish $7,500 price prediction for ETH. This forecast, published on May 12 by markets.businessinsider.com, instilled strong confidence in ETH's short-term value. 以太坊价格在5月14日高于2,300美元的概率飙升至100%,主要受商业内幕网5月12日发布的7,500美元以太坊看涨预测驱动。这一预测极大地增强了市场对以太坊短期价值的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Business Insider's $7,500 Ethereum price prediction.
  • Widespread bullish altcoin price predictions (e.g., XRP $5.00).
  • Overall positive crypto market news flow.
  • 商业内幕网预测以太坊价格将达7,500美元。
  • 其他山寨币(如XRP)的看涨价格预测。
  • 整体加密市场新闻流呈现积极态势。
This 100% probability reflects overwhelming market confidence in Ethereum's stability and upward momentum, signaling strong investor belief in its immediate future. 100%的概率反映了市场对以太坊稳定性和上涨势头的压倒性信心,预示着投资者对其近期前景的强烈信念。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The recent $7,500 Ethereum price prediction from Business Insider provides strong fundamental support for ETH staying above $2,300. 商业内幕网近期7,500美元的以太坊价格预测,为ETH维持在2,300美元以上提供了强劲支撑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unforeseen, catastrophic crypto market crash or a major Ethereum network exploit could theoretically push ETH below $2,300. 突发的灾难性加密市场崩盘或以太坊网络重大漏洞,理论上可能将ETH推至2,300美元以下。

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500
#2 · Score 713

NVDA $236 Target Certainty Surges 英伟达236美元目标确定性飙升

100% +71.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of May 11 2026?


NVIDIA's probability to hit $236 by May 2026 surged to 100% following its stock reaching new all-time highs. This was primarily driven by strong Wall Street analyst bullishness, including UBS raising its price target to $275. 英伟达(NVDA)在2026年5月前达到236美元的概率飙升至100%,因其股价创下历史新高。这主要受华尔街分析师的强烈看好推动,包括瑞银将目标价上调至275美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Nvidia stock hitting new all-time highs.
  • UBS raising NVDA price target to $275.
  • Accelerating AI trade and investor confidence.
  • 英伟达股价创历史新高。
  • 瑞银将英伟达目标价上调至275美元。
  • AI交易加速,投资者信心增强。
This reflects the market's overwhelming confidence in NVIDIA's continued growth, driven by its leadership in the booming AI sector. It signals strong belief in its long-term valuation trajectory. 这反映了市场对英伟达持续增长的压倒性信心,主要得益于其在蓬勃发展的AI领域的领导地位。这预示着对其长期估值轨迹的强烈信念。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued AI demand and NVIDIA's dominant chip position will easily sustain its stock price above $236 through 2026. AI需求持续增长及英伟达芯片主导地位将轻松支撑其股价在2026年保持236美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising competition and potential AI market saturation could challenge NVIDIA's valuation, making $236 less certain. 竞争加剧和AI市场潜在饱和可能挑战英伟达估值,使236美元目标不确定。

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500
#3 · Score 569

S&P 500 Surges on AI, Record Highs 标普500受AI推动创历史新高

86% +56.5%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?


The probability surged as the S&P 500 hit fresh intraday and closing record highs, notably surpassing 7,400 for the first time. This rally was significantly boosted by strong performance in AI-related stocks, particularly Nvidia, and positive S&P 500 futures trading above the target. 随着标普500指数创下盘中和收盘历史新高,首次突破7400点,该预测概率大幅飙升。此次上涨主要得益于英伟达等AI相关股票的强劲表现,以及标普500期货交易价格已高于目标价。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 hitting fresh intraday record highs.
  • Nvidia's significant gains boosting chip sector.
  • S&P 500 futures trading above $745 target.
  • 标普500指数创下新的盘中历史高点。
  • 英伟达强劲上涨推动AI科技股。
  • 标普500期货交易价高于745美元。
The S&P 500's sustained rally to record highs, despite geopolitical concerns, signals underlying economic strength and investor confidence in key growth sectors like AI. 标普500指数在地缘政治担忧下持续上涨并创下新高,表明经济具有潜在韧性以及投资者对AI等关键增长领域的信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong AI sector performance, led by Nvidia, and positive S&P 500 futures trading above $745 will drive the index higher. 英伟达引领的AI板块表现强劲,加上标普500期货高于目标价,将推动指数上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions (Iran) and a spiking 'fear gauge' could trigger a late-day market reversal. 地缘政治紧张(伊朗)和“恐慌指数”飙升可能引发尾盘市场逆转。

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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#5 · Score 500

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET

0% -49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET


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500
#6 · Score 494

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 14? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 14?

99% +48.9%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#7 · Score 491

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14?

99% +48.6%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#8 · Score 478

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May?

100% +47.4%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#9 · Score 450

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?

99% +44.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#10 · Score 445

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14?

100% +44.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#11 · Score 444

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?

72% +44.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026?


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500
#12 · Score 417

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 14? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 14?

99% +41.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 14?


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500
#13 · Score 369

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 14? Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 14?

86% +36.5%

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#14 · Score 320

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

82% +31.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#15 · Score 319

WTI $105 Target Fades WTI原油105美元目标概率骤降

6% -31.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?


The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $105 by May 11, 2026, plummeted by 31.5% as recent data showed a significant decline in crude oil prices. WTI crude was reported at $101.85/bbl, a 3.06% drop, moving it further from the target despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. WTI原油在2026年5月11日当周触及105美元的概率骤降31.5%,因最新数据显示原油价格显著下跌。尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续,WTI原油价格仍跌至101.85美元/桶,跌幅达3.06%,使其离目标更远。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • WTI Crude Oil price fell to $101.85/bbl (Mining.com)
  • Significant 3.06% daily decline in crude oil prices (Mining.com)
  • WTI currently trading at $101.5/bbl (OilPrice.com), below target
  • WTI原油价格跌至101.85美元/桶 (Mining.com)
  • 原油价格单日显著下跌3.06% (Mining.com)
  • WTI目前交易价为101.5美元/桶 (OilPrice.com),低于目标
Fluctuations in crude oil prices directly impact global energy costs, inflation rates, and the stability of economies reliant on oil production or consumption, especially amidst geopolitical conflicts. 原油价格波动直接影响全球能源成本、通货膨胀率,以及依赖石油生产或消费的经济体稳定,尤其是在地缘政治冲突背景下。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating Iran war and plunging global stockpiles could rapidly push WTI above $105. 伊朗战争升级和全球库存骤降可能迅速将WTI推高至105美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Recent WTI price declines to $101.5/bbl suggest demand weakness or supply resilience, keeping it below $105. WTI近期跌至101.5美元/桶表明需求疲软或供应弹性,使其保持在105美元以下。

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500
#16 · Score 299

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 14? Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 14?

20% -29.5%

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#17 · Score 283

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3

42% +28.0%

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?


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500
#18 · Score 254

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 14? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 14?

40% -25.0%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 14?


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500
#19 · Score 249

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15?

36% +24.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#20 · Score 244

WTI Surges on Iran Supply Fears WTI油价因伊朗供应担忧飙升

78% +24.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14?


The probability of WTI closing above $101 on May 14 surged to 78% due to escalating supply concerns. Reports of global oil stockpiles plunging amid an Iran war choking supply were key drivers. 5月14日WTI原油收盘价高于101美元的概率升至78%,主要受供应担忧加剧推动。伊朗战争导致供应受阻,全球石油库存骤降是关键驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran war chokes global oil supply
  • U.S.-Iran diplomacy remains at a standstill
  • Global oil stockpiles reported to plunge
  • 伊朗战争导致全球石油供应受阻
  • 美伊外交谈判陷入僵局
  • 全球石油库存报告骤降
Sustained high oil prices can fuel inflation, impact consumer spending, and create geopolitical instability, especially with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. 持续高油价可能加剧通胀,影响消费者支出,并因美伊紧张局势引发地缘政治不稳定。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued U.S.-Iran diplomatic impasse and further supply disruptions will keep WTI above $101. 美伊外交僵局持续及供应进一步中断将使WTI油价维持在101美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks or unexpected demand weakness could push WTI below $101. 美伊谈判突破或需求疲软,WTI可能跌破101美元。

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500
#21 · Score 238

Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?

66% +23.5%

Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?


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500
#22 · Score 229

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?

94% +22.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?


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500
#23 · Score 223

Opendoor $4.00 Target Probability Drops Opendoor跌至4美元概率下降

3% -22.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of May 11 2026?


The probability of Opendoor (OPEN) hitting $4.00 by May 2026 decreased by 22.0% to 3%. This movement was primarily driven by a positive market reaction to April CPI data on May 12, 2026, easing inflation concerns. Opendoor (OPEN) 在2026年5月前跌至4美元的概率下降了22.0%至3%。这一变化主要受2026年5月12日市场对4月CPI数据积极反应的推动,缓解了通胀担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Positive market reaction to April CPI data
  • Reduced fears of aggressive interest rate hikes
  • Improved outlook for the housing market
  • 市场对4月CPI数据积极反应
  • 激进加息担忧减弱
  • 房地产市场前景改善
Opendoor's stock performance reflects broader housing market health and investor confidence in its iBuying model amidst economic shifts. Opendoor股价表现反映了整体房地产市场健康状况及其iBuying模式在经济变化中的投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong housing market recovery and Opendoor's operational efficiency keep its stock well above $4.00. 房地产市场强劲复苏及Opendoor运营效率提升,股价将远高于4美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent high interest rates and housing market downturn could push Opendoor's stock to $4.00. 持续高利率和房地产市场低迷可能导致Opendoor股价跌至4美元。

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500
#24 · Score 199

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?

85% +19.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#25 · Score 199

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

57% -19.5%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#26 · Score 199

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $220? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $220?

97% +19.6%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $220?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 198

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

24% -19.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 179

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?

32% +17.5%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 170

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their

0% -16.4%

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 164

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?

46% +16.1%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 69

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee

11% -6.5%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。