AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 07, 2026 06:23 UTC
#1 · Score 855

Oil Plunges on Cease-Fire News 油价因停火消息暴跌

100% +85.0%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability of WTI crude oil hitting a $90 low surged to 100% after futures fell significantly. This was driven by news from the WSJ that a U.S.-brokered cease-fire continues to hold, easing geopolitical tensions. WTI原油触及90美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前期货价格大幅下跌。华尔街日报报道美国停火协议持续有效，缓解地缘政治紧张局势是主要驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Oil Futures Fall on U.S. Cease-Fire (WSJ)
  • Crude Oil drops 3.06% to $101.85/bbl
  • Reduced geopolitical risk premium
  • 美国停火协议致油价下跌 (华尔街日报)
  • 原油价格跌3.06%至101.85美元/桶
  • 地缘政治风险溢价降低
Lower oil prices could alleviate global inflationary pressures, influencing central bank policies and consumer spending. This impacts economic stability and growth outlooks. 油价走低可能缓解全球通胀压力，影响央行政策和消费者支出。这关系到经济稳定和增长前景。
Vol 24h: $113,662 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained geopolitical de-escalation could further reduce risk premiums, pushing WTI prices below $90. 地缘政治持续降级可能进一步降低风险溢价，推动WTI价格跌破90美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Goldman Sachs' warning of global oil stocks approaching eight-year lows could prevent WTI from reaching $90. 高盛警告全球石油库存接近八年低点，可能阻止WTI跌至90美元。
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500
#2 · Score 789

Silver Price Surge to $78 Now Certain 白银价格飙升至78美元几成定局

100% +78.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability of Silver (XAGUSD) hitting $78 by May 4, 2026, surged to 100% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift is driven by strong reports of a significant market deficit and expanding demand from investment and corporate balance sheets, as highlighted by Bitget and TradingView. 白银（XAGUSD）在2026年5月4日前触及78美元的概率在24小时内飙升至100%。这一剧烈变化主要受Bitget和TradingView报道的市场严重短缺以及投资和企业资产负债表需求扩张的强劲驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Silver market facing significant deficit.
  • Demand expanding to investment & corporate.
  • Strong 'bull cycle' expectations.
  • 白银市场面临严重短缺。
  • 投资及企业需求扩张。
  • “响亮牛市”预期强烈。
This indicates a fundamental re-evaluation of silver's value, potentially signaling a new era for the metal as both an industrial and investment asset. It could have implications for inflation hedging and industrial supply chains. 这表明市场对白银价值进行了根本性重估，预示着其作为工业和投资资产的新时代。可能对通胀对冲和工业供应链产生影响。
Vol 24h: $10,193 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent market deficits and new, substantial investment demand will continue to propel silver prices higher towards $78. 持续的市场短缺和新的大量投资需求将继续推动白银价格向78美元上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Aggressive profit-taking or a sudden increase in supply could reverse the current bullish momentum, preventing $78. 激进的获利了结或供应突然增加可能逆转当前牛市势头，阻止价格达到78美元。
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500
#3 · Score 729

S&P 500 Nears $730 Target 标普500逼近730美元目标

100% +72.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of May 4 2026?

The probability for SPY hitting $730 surged to 100% as the S&P 500 index reached 7259.22, implying SPY traded near $725.92. Strong performance by chip makers pushed the index to fresh highs, making the $730 target highly probable within the week of May 4, 2026. SPY触及730美元的概率飙升至100%，因标普500指数达到7259.22点，意味着SPY交易价接近725.92美元。芯片制造商的强劲表现将指数推至新高，使得在2026年5月4日当周内达到730美元目标成为极高可能。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 index reached 7259.22 on May 4.
  • Chip makers drove S&P 500 to fresh highs.
  • Overall stock market shows upward momentum.
  • 标普500指数5月4日达到7259.22点。
  • 芯片制造商推动标普500创下新高。
  • 整体股市呈现上涨势头。
This rapid ascent of the S&P 500 to new highs signals robust economic growth and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, despite geopolitical tensions. It reflects investor confidence in the market's continued upward trajectory. 标普500指数迅速创下新高，预示着经济强劲增长和企业盈利能力，尤其是在科技领域，尽管存在地缘政治紧张局势。这反映了投资者对市场持续上涨的信心。
Vol 24h: $20,786 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong earnings from tech and chip companies will easily push SPY past $730, confirming robust market momentum. 科技和芯片公司持续强劲的盈利将轻松推动SPY突破730美元，确认市场强劲势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Escalating US-Iran tensions or unexpected economic data could trigger a sharp reversal, preventing SPY from sustaining $730. 美伊紧张局势升级或意外经济数据可能引发急剧逆转，阻止SPY维持在730美元。
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500
#4 · Score 488

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of May 4 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of May 4 2026?

89% +48.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $720 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 478

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of May 4 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of May 4 2026?

82% +47.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,240 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 473

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 4 above $200? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 4 above $200?

80% +47.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 4 above $200?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,168 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 469

Bitcoin Up Odds Plummet 比特币上涨概率骤降

4% -46.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by May 6, 11 PM ET, has plummeted to 4%, driven by reports of weak spot demand and trader hedging. This occurred despite Bitcoin reclaiming the $80,000 mark. 截至美东时间5月6日晚11点，比特币上涨的概率已骤降至4%，主要受弱现货需求和交易员对冲报告驱动。尽管比特币已重回8万美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • CryptoQuant data shows weak spot demand
  • Traders hedging positions, doubting breakout
  • General prediction market skepticism
  • CryptoQuant数据显示现货需求疲软
  • 交易员对冲头寸，怀疑突破
  • 预测市场普遍持怀疑态度
This movement highlights market skepticism regarding Bitcoin's current rally sustainability, despite recent price gains and ETF inflows. 此次波动凸显市场对比特币当前反弹持续性的怀疑，尽管近期价格上涨且ETF资金流入。
Vol 24h: $25,920 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong ETF inflows and general market risk-on sentiment could still drive Bitcoin higher. 持续强劲的ETF资金流入和市场风险偏好可能仍会推高比特币。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Weak spot demand and extensive trader hedging suggest the $80,000 reclaim is unsustainable. 现货需求疲软和交易员大量对冲表明8万美元回升不可持续。
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500
#8 · Score 452

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 Week of May 4 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 Week of May 4 2026?

100% +45.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $754 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 348

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of May 4 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of May 4 2026?

60% +34.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of May 4 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,068 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 329

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

80% +32.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $10,928 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 319

Will Solana reach $90 in May? Will Solana reach $90 in May?

100% +31.4%

Will Solana reach $90 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $60,029 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 314

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

75% +31.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $13,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 313

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?

82% +30.9%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?

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Vol 24h: $27,372 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 296

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

57% +29.0%

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $357,738 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 268

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?

100% +26.5%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?

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Vol 24h: $10,008 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 268

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of May 4 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of May 4 2026?

57% +26.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of May 4 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,047 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 255

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?

24% -25.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $133,789 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 228

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?

95% +22.4%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $1,554 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 208

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee

15% -20.5%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $1,809 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 183

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of May 4 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of May 4 2026?

30% -18.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of May 4 2026?

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Vol 24h: $642 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 178

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?

60% -17.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?

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Vol 24h: $1,413 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 174

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?

55% +17.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?

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Vol 24h: $6,110 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 169

SPX Nears 7,300 Target 标普500逼近7300点

100% +16.4%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

The S&P 500's probability of hitting $7,300 in June surged to 100% as the index reached 7259.22, just $40.78 shy of the target. This rapid ascent was driven by strong chip maker performance, robust hiring data, and easing geopolitical tensions. 标普500指数6月触及7300点的概率飙升至100%，因指数已达7259.22点，距目标仅差40.78点。芯片制造商强劲表现、就业数据强劲及地缘政治紧张局势缓解共同推动了这一上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 reached 7259.22, nearing 7,300 target.
  • Chip makers (AMD, SMCI) pushed indexes to fresh highs.
  • U.S. hiring rate surged to 22-month high of 3.5%.
  • Hopes for Iran peace agreement boosted global markets.
  • 标普500达7259.22点，逼近7300目标。
  • 芯片股（AMD、SMCI）推动指数创新高。
  • 美国招聘率升至22个月高点3.5%。
  • 伊朗和平希望提振全球市场。
This indicates strong underlying economic momentum and investor confidence, particularly in the tech sector, potentially signaling continued market strength. 这表明经济具有强劲的潜在动能和投资者信心，尤其是在科技领域，预示市场可能持续走强。
Vol 24h: $13,635 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 SPX is already at 7259.22, making the remaining $40.78 gain to 7,300 highly probable given current momentum. 标普500已达7259.22点，在当前动能下，剩余40.78点的涨幅极有可能实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any unexpected negative economic data or geopolitical escalation could cause a minor pullback, preventing the final $40.78 gain. 任何意外的负面经济数据或地缘政治升级都可能导致小幅回调，阻止最终上涨。
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500
#24 · Score 165

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?

100% +16.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $243,184 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 149

Chirayu Rana sued? Chirayu Rana sued?

67% -14.5%

Chirayu Rana sued?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $29,099 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 144

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

44% -14.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,507 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 143

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

72% +14.0%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $769 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 140

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

28% +13.5%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $248,543 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 139

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

70% +13.5%

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $18,647 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 136

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

30% +13.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $974,690 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。