AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 16, 2026 17:27 UTC
#1 · Score 464

Iran Confirmed Targeting Shipping in Hormuz 伊朗确认成功打击霍尔木兹海峡航运

100% +46.0%

Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?

The probability for Iran successfully targeting shipping on August 14, 2026, surged to 100% following reports of a dramatic drop in Strait of Hormuz traffic. Tehran's assertion of control over the strait on the same day, amid US tensions, solidified market conviction. 伊朗于2026年8月14日成功打击航运的市场预测概率飙升至100%，此前有报道称霍尔木兹海峡航运量急剧下降。德黑兰在美国紧张局势下于同日宣称控制该海峡，进一步巩固了市场信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Kpler data shows dramatic drop in Hormuz shipping traffic.
  • Tehran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz on August 14, 2026.
  • Iran's extensive, missile-backed regional response strategy.
  • Kpler数据显示霍尔木兹海峡航运量骤降。
  • 德黑兰于2026年8月14日宣称控制霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 伊朗采取导弹支持的广泛区域回应策略。
This event signifies a major escalation in US-Iran tensions, threatening global oil supplies and maritime security. It could trigger widespread economic disruption and potential military confrontation. 此事件标志着美伊紧张局势的重大升级，威胁全球石油供应和海上安全。可能引发广泛的经济中断和潜在的军事冲突。
Vol 24h: $23,700 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Kpler data and Tehran's claims on August 14, 2026, confirm the event's occurrence, leaving no room for doubt. Kpler数据和德黑兰声明证实事件发生，市场已无疑问。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 100% probability might be premature if 'targeting' definition is narrower or initial reports prove inaccurate. 若对“成功打击”定义有误或初期报道不准确，100%概率可能过早。
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500
#2 · Score 218

Houthi Action Probability Dips 胡塞行动概率下降

14% -21.4%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?

The probability of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026, dropped significantly to 14%, driven by market skepticism over recent Houthi claims of a drone attack on Najran and the announcement of a new Saudi Red Sea defensive alliance. 截至2026年8月15日，胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯采取军事行动的概率显著降至14%，主要原因是市场对胡塞武装近期宣称袭击纳季兰的说法持怀疑态度，以及沙特宣布成立红海防御联盟。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Skepticism on Houthi Najran drone claim
  • Saudi Red Sea defensive alliance formed
  • 市场对胡塞纳季兰无人机袭击声明存疑
  • 沙特成立红海防御联盟
Continued Houthi-Saudi conflict risks regional instability, disrupts global oil supplies, and exacerbates the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. 胡塞武装与沙特的持续冲突可能导致地区不稳定，扰乱全球石油供应，并加剧也门人道主义危机。
Vol 24h: $1,503 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Confirmed, significant Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, beyond current claims, could escalate tensions. 证实胡塞武装对沙特目标发动重大袭击，超出当前声明，可能加剧紧张局势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger Saudi defenses and successful de-escalation efforts could prevent further Houthi military action. 沙特防御加强及成功降级努力可阻止胡塞武装进一步军事行动。
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500
#3 · Score 143

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?

40% +14.0%

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $900 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 133

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

28% +13.0%

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

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Vol 24h: $1,617 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 113

Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 202 Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 202

17% -11.0%

Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,729 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 110

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

24% +10.7%

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

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Vol 24h: $789 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 109

Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2 Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2

26% -10.5%

Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

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Vol 24h: $6,486 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 98

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat

62% +9.5%

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?

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Vol 24h: $1,286 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 95

Iran Rejects Ceasefire Extension 伊朗否认延长停火期

10% -9.0%

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

The probability of a US-Iran negotiation period extension dropped 9.0% to 10% after Iran's Foreign Minister and an official explicitly rejected claims of an agreement. This directly contradicted earlier reports from Pakistani sources and Daily Sabah. 美国与伊朗延长谈判期的可能性下降9.0%至10%，此前伊朗外交部长及一名官员明确否认了延长协议的说法。这直接驳斥了此前巴基斯坦消息源和《每日晨报》的报道。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran FM rejects ceasefire extension claims
  • Iranian official states no extension talks
  • Iran's stance: no initial period to extend
  • 伊朗外长否认延长停火期
  • 伊朗官员称无延长谈判
  • 伊朗立场：无初始期限可延
The failure to extend the negotiation period could signal a breakdown in diplomatic efforts, potentially escalating tensions in the region. It impacts the prospects for a lasting resolution to US-Iran conflicts. 未能延长谈判期可能预示着外交努力的破裂，可能加剧地区紧张局势。这影响了美伊冲突达成持久解决方案的前景。
Vol 24h: $47,628 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Back-channel diplomacy via Pakistan could still yield a mutual agreement to extend the negotiation period. 通过巴基斯坦的幕后外交仍可能促成双方同意延长谈判期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran's explicit rejection and denial of an initial period make any extension highly improbable. 伊朗明确拒绝并否认存在初始期限，使得任何延长都极不可能。
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500
#10 · Score 93

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?

18% -9.0%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?

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Vol 24h: $1,150 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 85

US Blockade on Iran Continues 美国对伊封锁持续

14% -8.0%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

The probability of the US ending its Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, dropped 8% to 14%, driven by recent US announcements of "unprecedented sanctions" and a commitment to maintain the naval blockade "indefinitely." 美国在2026年8月31日前结束对伊朗封锁的可能性下降8%至14%，主要受美国宣布“前所未有制裁”及承诺“无限期”维持海上封锁驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US to unveil "unprecedented sanctions" on Iran.
  • US vows to keep naval blockade "indefinitely."
  • Faltering US-Iran talks keep war risks high.
  • Tehran's confrontational rhetoric over Hormuz.
  • 美国将公布“前所未有”对伊制裁。
  • 美国誓言“无限期”维持海军封锁。
  • 美伊谈判停滞，战争风险高企。
  • 德黑兰就霍尔木兹海峡发表强硬言论。
The ongoing blockade and escalating tensions significantly impact global oil markets and regional stability, with potential for broader geopolitical conflict. 持续的封锁和紧张局势严重影响全球石油市场和地区稳定，可能引发更广泛的地缘政治冲突。
Vol 24h: $220,807 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or a significant shift in US policy could lead to an unexpected lifting of sanctions. 突发外交突破或美国政策重大转变可能导致制裁意外解除。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 US commitment to "indefinite" blockade and new sanctions confirm sustained pressure, making an end unlikely. 美国承诺“无限期”封锁并实施新制裁，确认持续施压，结束可能性低。
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500
#12 · Score 85

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 17? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 17?

3% -8.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 17?

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Vol 24h: $3,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 83

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31

38% -8.0%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,876 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 83

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?

66% +8.0%

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?

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Vol 24h: $1,041 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 80

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?

16% +7.5%

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?

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Vol 24h: $48,172 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 76

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31? Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31?

20% +7.3%

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31?

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Vol 24h: $959 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#17 · Score 64

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?

80% +6.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?

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Vol 24h: $4,298 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 58

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

37% +5.5%

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

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Vol 24h: $2,532 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 55

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?

8% +5.2%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?

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Vol 24h: $626 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 54

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

3% -5.1%

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

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Vol 24h: $9,010 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 54

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

34% +5.0%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $12,300 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 49

Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $160 in August? Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $160 in August?

45% -4.5%

Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $160 in August?

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Vol 24h: $4,105 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 46

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $210 in August? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $210 in August?

0% -4.3%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $210 in August?

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Vol 24h: $638 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#24 · Score 46

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

1% -4.2%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

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Vol 24h: $46,522 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 39

Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?

7% -3.5%

Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $3,578 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 38

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

40% +3.5%

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

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Vol 24h: $9,636 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 38

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap

80% +3.5%

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,481 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 38

Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

17% +3.5%

Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,250 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 38

Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026? Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?

52% +3.5%

Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $937 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 38

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

38% +3.5%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $929 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。