AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 26, 2026 20:02 UTC
#1 · Score 673

Houthis Strike Saudi: Probability Hits 100% 胡塞袭击沙特：概率达100%

100% +66.8%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

The probability surged to 100% as Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia has already occurred, specifically a missile and drone strike on the Aramco refinery in Jazan. This follows Saudi-led coalition strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen and Houthi vows of retaliation, confirming an open new front in the Middle East conflict. 胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的军事行动已发生，特别是对吉赞阿美炼油厂的导弹和无人机袭击，导致市场概率飙升至100%。此前沙特联军袭击了也门胡塞阵地，胡塞武装誓言报复，中东冲突开辟新战线。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthi missile/drone strike on Aramco refinery in Jazan
  • Saudi-led coalition strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen
  • Houthis vow retaliation against Saudi Arabia
  • New front opens in Middle East conflict
  • 胡塞武装袭击吉赞阿美炼油厂
  • 沙特联军空袭也门胡塞阵地
  • 胡塞武装誓言报复沙特
  • 中东冲突开辟新战线
This direct engagement between Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalates regional tensions, threatening energy infrastructure and potentially drawing in other international actors. 胡塞武装与沙特之间的直接交火加剧了地区紧张局势，威胁能源基础设施，并可能卷入其他国际参与者。
Vol 24h: $18,245 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The market is at 100% because Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia has already occurred. 市场已达100%，因胡塞对沙特军事行动已证实。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 No bear case exists as the event has already occurred, pushing probability to 100%. 市场已达100%，因事件已发生，除非袭击被证伪，否则概率无法降低。
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500
#2 · Score 509

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET

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Vol 24h: $30,047 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#3 · Score 499

Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET

100% +49.5%

Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET

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Vol 24h: $12,937 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 346

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

51% +34.0%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

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Vol 24h: $497,052 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 314

Iran Military Action Risk Plunges 伊朗军事行动风险骤降

17% -31.0%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?

The probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State by July 23 has significantly dropped to 17%, reflecting a sharp de-escalation of perceived regional tensions. This decline is primarily driven by the absence of any new provocative actions or rhetoric from Iran as the deadline approaches. 截至7月23日，伊朗对海湾国家采取军事行动的可能性已大幅降至17%，反映出地区紧张局势的明显缓解。这一下降主要由于临近截止日期，伊朗方面未出现新的挑衅行动或言论。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Absence of new Iranian threats or aggressive rhetoric.
  • No reported unusual military deployments by Iran or proxies.
  • Lack of maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Approaching July 23 deadline without escalation.
  • 伊朗未发表新的威胁言论。
  • 未见伊朗或其代理人异常军事部署。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡未发生海上事件。
  • 临近7月23日，局势未升级。
Military action in the Persian Gulf carries significant implications for global oil prices, regional stability, and international diplomatic relations. 波斯湾的军事行动将对全球油价、地区稳定及国际外交关系产生重大影响。
Vol 24h: $26,860 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A sudden, unexpected regional provocation or a direct attack by Iran could rapidly increase the probability of military action. 伊朗突然采取意外地区挑衅或直接袭击，可能迅速推高军事行动的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued lack of escalation and ongoing diplomatic backchannels will likely keep the probability of military action low. 持续的局势不升级及幕后外交努力，将可能使军事行动的可能性保持低位。
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500
#6 · Score 243

SPY $715 Target Confidence Soars 标普500突破$715信心大增

91% +24.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on July 27?

The probability for SPY closing above $715 on July 27, 2026, jumped 24% to 91%, driven by overwhelming confidence in related prediction markets. Recent trading showed 98-99% probabilities for similar or higher S&P 500 targets in July 2026, indicating broad market optimism. 标普500指数(SPY)在2026年7月27日收盘高于$715的概率飙升24%至91%，主要受相关预测市场压倒性信心的推动。近期交易显示，2026年7月类似或更高标普500目标的概率高达98-99%，表明市场普遍乐观。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Related SPY markets show 98-99% for $715/$720 in July 2026.
  • Faufex market indicates 99% probability for SPY above $715.
  • Significant new trading volume in similar SPY prediction markets.
  • 相关SPY市场显示2026年7月$715/$720概率达98-99%。
  • Faufex市场预测SPY高于$715的概率为99%。
  • 类似SPY预测市场出现大量新增交易量。
This reflects strong long-term market confidence in sustained S&P 500 growth and a positive economic outlook. 这反映了市场对标普500未来两年持续增长和经济前景的强烈长期信心。
Vol 24h: $1,138 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Robust corporate earnings and sustained economic expansion will comfortably propel the S&P 500 beyond $715 by July 2026. 强劲的企业盈利和持续的经济扩张将轻松推动标普500在2026年7月前突破$715。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen economic shocks, geopolitical instability, or tighter monetary policy could prevent SPY from reaching $715. 意外的经济冲击、地缘政治不稳定或更紧缩的货币政策可能阻止SPY达到$715。
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500
#7 · Score 228

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31?

16% -22.5%

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31?

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Vol 24h: $2,074 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 220

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?

98% +21.6%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?

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Vol 24h: $3,538 Polymarket ↗
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500
#9 · Score 204

Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings? Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?

60% +20.1%

Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $5,065 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 170

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

52% +16.5%

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $132,491 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 151

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

17% -14.6%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

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Vol 24h: $92,392 Polymarket ↗
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500
#12 · Score 119

Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

82% +11.5%

Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $5,326 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 118

Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on Sep Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on Sep

19% +11.5%

Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $1,075 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 115

Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

6% -11.0%

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $88,952 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 113

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o

23% -11.0%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,536 Polymarket ↗
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500
#16 · Score 109

Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings? Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?

93% +10.5%

Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $4,445 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 106

RipCars FDV above $7.5M one day after launch? RipCars FDV above $7.5M one day after launch?

0% -10.2%

RipCars FDV above $7.5M one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $2,160 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 104

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

40% -10.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

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Vol 24h: $5,679 Polymarket ↗
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500
#19 · Score 95

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

41% -9.2%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

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Vol 24h: $1,739 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 94

Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?

90% +9.0%

Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $9,274 Polymarket ↗
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500
#21 · Score 93

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?

52% -9.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?

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Vol 24h: $781 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 92

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju

83% +8.8%

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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Vol 24h: $3,893 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 89

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

57% +8.5%

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

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Vol 24h: $23,864 Polymarket ↗
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500
#24 · Score 89

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026? Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?

64% -8.5%

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $4,610 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 87

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight

88% +8.4%

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?

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Vol 24h: $2,758 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 85

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

64% -8.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

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Vol 24h: $90,507 Polymarket ↗
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500
#27 · Score 79

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

28% -7.5%

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

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Vol 24h: $9,273 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 79

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O

64% -7.5%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

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Vol 24h: $4,943 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 79

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

42% +7.5%

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,467 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 73

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?

14% -7.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,537 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。