AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 05, 2026 20:32 UTC
#1 · Score 992

Gold Surges to $4,250 Certainty 黄金确定突破4250美元

100% +98.9%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?

Gold's probability of hitting $4,250 by August 3, 2026, surged to 100% as rate hike odds fell 10% in one day. Strong Chinese ETF demand above $4,200 cemented confidence in the metal's upward trajectory. 黄金在2026年8月3日当周触及4250美元的概率飙升至100%，因加息预期一日内下降10%。中国ETF买家在4200美元上方需求强劲，巩固了金价上涨信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rate hike odds fell 10% in one day.
  • Chinese ETF buyers showed strong demand above $4,200.
  • Gold already trading above $4,200.
  • 加息预期一日内下降10%。
  • 中国ETF买家在4200美元上方需求强劲。
  • 黄金价格已在4200美元上方运行。
This move reflects a significant shift in monetary policy expectations and robust global demand, indicating potential for sustained high gold prices amidst economic uncertainty. 此举反映了货币政策预期的重大转变和强劲的全球需求，预示着经济不确定性下黄金价格可能持续高企。
Vol 24h: $8,531 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Falling rate hike odds and persistent Chinese demand above $4,200 make hitting $4,250 virtually guaranteed this week. 加息预期下降和中国市场强劲需求，使黄金本周触及4250美元几乎板上钉钉。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A surprisingly strong US Jobs Report could have reversed momentum, preventing the target, though now highly unlikely. 意外强劲的美国就业报告可能逆转势头，阻止金价达标，但目前概率极低。
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500
#2 · Score 960

Hormuz Shipping Halts Amid Attacks 霍尔木兹海峡航运因袭击中断

100% +95.5%

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

The market now reflects 100% certainty that no ships transited Hormuz on July 31, surging 95.5% in 24 hours. This dramatic shift followed reports of a Qatari LNG tanker being struck and losing signal near the Strait's entrance on July 31. 市场目前100%确定7月31日霍尔木兹海峡无船只通过，24小时内概率飙升95.5%。这一剧烈变化源于7月31日一艘卡塔尔液化天然气油轮在海峡入口附近遇袭并失去信号的报道。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Qatari LNG tanker struck on July 31
  • IRGC strikes on commercial shipping
  • Increased maritime incidents off Oman
  • 7月31日卡塔尔液化天然气油轮遇袭
  • 伊朗革命卫队袭击商船
  • 阿曼附近海事事件增多
This halt signifies a critical escalation in regional tensions, severely impacting global energy supply chains and highlighting the Strait's extreme vulnerability. 此次中断标志着地区紧张局势严重升级，将严重影响全球能源供应链，并凸显该关键海上咽喉的极端脆弱性。
Vol 24h: $42,481 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The confirmed strike on a Qatari LNG tanker on July 31 likely led to an immediate, complete cessation of all commercial transits. 7月31日卡塔尔液化天然气油轮遇袭事件，可能导致所有商业航运立即完全停止。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Multiple headlines explicitly state vessels were observed transiting the Strait on July 31, directly contradicting the market's 100% probability. 多条新闻明确指出7月31日有船只在海峡内被观测到，这直接与市场100%的概率相矛盾。
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500
#3 · Score 842

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +83.9%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,592 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 519

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 5? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 5?

100% +51.4%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $49,509 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 510

Google Probability Plummets on Dean Exit 谷歌概率暴跌：迪恩离职

3% -50.6%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 5?

The probability of GOOGL rising on August 5 plummeted by 50.6% to 3% following news of Jeff Dean's departure. Google's chief scientist for 27 years is leaving to co-found Discovery Loop, sparking investor concerns over AI leadership. 谷歌(GOOGL)在8月5日上涨的概率暴跌50.6%至3%，此前有消息称杰夫·迪恩离职。这位在谷歌任职27年的首席科学家将联合创立Discovery Loop，引发投资者对AI领导力的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Jeff Dean, Google's chief scientist, leaving after 27 years.
  • Concerns over Google's future AI innovation and leadership.
  • Significant brain drain from a key technical role.
  • 谷歌首席科学家杰夫·迪恩离职。
  • 引发对谷歌未来AI创新担忧。
  • 关键技术领导人才流失。
Dean's exit represents a major blow to Google's long-term AI strategy and could impact its competitive standing in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. 迪恩的离职对谷歌的长期AI战略构成重大打击，并可能影响其在快速发展的科技领域的竞争力。
Vol 24h: $5,147 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Google's deep talent pool and existing AI projects may mitigate the impact of Dean's departure, leading to a rebound. 谷歌深厚的人才储备和现有AI项目可能缓解迪恩离职的影响，促使股价反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The loss of Jeff Dean, a pivotal AI leader, creates uncertainty about Google's future innovation and investor confidence. 关键AI领导者杰夫·迪恩的离去，给谷歌未来创新和投资者信心带来不确定性。
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500
#6 · Score 499

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

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Vol 24h: $63,036 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 481

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 5? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 5?

2% -47.8%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $4,752 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 478

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5? Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5?

5% -47.5%

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $3,030 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 458

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 5? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 5?

99% +45.5%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $2,172 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 454

XRP Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET XRP Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

95% +45.0%

XRP Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

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Vol 24h: $16,087 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#11 · Score 452

WTI Surges Past $73 Target WTI原油突破73美元

95% +44.8%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on August 5?

The probability of WTI closing above $73 on August 5 surged to 95% due to a strong bullish forecast and escalating supply concerns. US crude is projected to trade between $78.42–$80.53 on August 5, while July saw WTI already closing at $83.63. WTI原油8月5日收盘高于73美元的概率飙升至95%，主要受强劲看涨预测和供应担忧加剧推动。8月5日美国原油预计在78.42–80.53美元区间波动，而7月WTI已收于83.63美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • August 5 US crude price forecast $78.42–$80.53.
  • WTI crude closed July at $83.63, well above $73.
  • Escalating 'Hormuz Concerns' widen crude price gap.
  • 8月5日美国原油预测价78.42–80.53美元。
  • WTI原油7月收盘83.63美元，远超73美元。
  • “霍尔木兹担忧”加剧，扩大原油价差。
Higher crude prices impact global inflation, energy costs for consumers and businesses, and geopolitical stability in key oil-producing regions. 原油价格上涨影响全球通胀、消费者和企业的能源成本，以及主要产油区的地缘政治稳定。
Vol 24h: $10,470 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong August 5 price forecast and persistent Strait of Hormuz supply risks will keep WTI above $73. 强劲预测与霍尔木兹海峡供应风险将使WTI高于73美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Easing geopolitical tensions or an unexpected increase in global supply could push WTI below $73. 地缘政治缓解或供应意外增加可能将WTI推至73美元以下。
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500
#12 · Score 424

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?

56% +42.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?

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Vol 24h: $26,495 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 424

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5?

8% -42.0%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $4,746 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 388

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 5? Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 5?

12% -38.5%

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $2,340 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 367

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?

51% +36.4%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $756 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 354

Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5? Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5?

17% -35.0%

Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $3,938 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 353

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026?

48% -35.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,169 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#18 · Score 353

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 Week of August 3 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +34.9%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,211 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#19 · Score 348

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of August 3 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +34.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $4,670 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#20 · Score 303

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of August Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of August

100% +29.9%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 278

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?

26% -27.5%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,853 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 249

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5?

26% -24.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5?

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Vol 24h: $20,257 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 238

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of August 3 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of August 3 2026?

100% +23.4%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of August 3 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,041 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 219

US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?

68% +21.5%

US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?

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Vol 24h: $13,225 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 198

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August?

38% +19.5%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August?

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Vol 24h: $1,856 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 189

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on

58% +18.5%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $6,768 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 183

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 in August? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 in August?

100% +17.9%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,216 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#28 · Score 182

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in August? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in August?

100% +17.9%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,647 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 180

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

10% -17.5%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $90,003 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 169

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

8% -16.5%

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,312 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 148

Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

51% -14.4%

Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,272 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。