AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 30, 2026 11:13 UTC
#1 · Score 429

NVDA Crash Odds Plummet 英伟达暴跌可能性骤降

8% -42.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting $176 in June plummeted by 42.5% to 8%, driven by strong signals of sustained AI demand. CEO Jensen Huang's comments and NVDA's massive supply requests indicate robust growth. 英伟达6月跌至176美元的概率骤降42.5%至8%，主要受AI需求持续强劲信号驱动。CEO黄仁勋的言论及英伟达巨额供应需求预示强劲增长。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • NVIDIA demands 20x more AI laser capacity.
  • CEO Jensen Huang cites "parabolic" AI demand.
  • Dell's 35% stock surge on strong AI server earnings.
  • 英伟达要求AI激光产能增20倍。
  • CEO黄仁勋称AI需求呈“抛物线”增长。
  • 戴尔AI服务器营收强劲股价飙升35%。
This reflects surging investor confidence in NVIDIA's dominant position and the accelerating growth of the AI infrastructure market, impacting broader tech valuations. 这反映了投资者对英伟达主导地位和AI基础设施市场加速增长的信心，影响更广泛的科技股估值。
Vol 24h: $11,567 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected market downturn or significant competitive threat could still trigger a sharp NVDA price correction to $176. 市场意外回调或激烈竞争可能导致英伟达股价大幅修正至176美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 NVIDIA's massive 20x supply demand and CEO Huang's "parabolic" AI outlook strongly indicate continued high growth, preventing a $176 drop. 英伟达20倍供应需求及黄仁勋“抛物线”AI展望预示持续高增长，不太可能跌至176美元。
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500
#2 · Score 429

OpenAI Valuation Outlook Dips OpenAI估值前景骤降

13% -42.5%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

OpenAI's probability of hitting a $900B valuation by June 30 plummeted by 42.5% to 13%, driven by news of competitor Anthropic securing a near-$1 trillion valuation. Anthropic's Series H fundraise of $65 billion reportedly made it the most valuable AI company, surpassing OpenAI. OpenAI在6月30日前达到9000亿美元估值的可能性暴跌42.5%至13%，主要原因是竞争对手Anthropic获得近万亿美元估值。Anthropic通过H轮融资650亿美元，据报道已超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI公司。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anthropic's $900B+ valuation reported
  • Anthropic overtakes OpenAI in value
  • Increased competition for AI market share
  • Anthropic估值超9000亿美元
  • Anthropic估值超越OpenAI
  • AI市场竞争加剧
This shift highlights intense competition in the rapidly evolving AI sector, where market leadership and valuation can change dramatically based on funding rounds and perceived technological advantage. It signals a potential re-evaluation of OpenAI's growth trajectory relative to its peers. 这一变化凸显了快速发展的AI领域竞争激烈，市场领导地位和估值可能因融资和技术优势而剧烈波动。它预示着市场可能重新评估OpenAI相对于同行的增长轨迹。
Vol 24h: $5,203 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 OpenAI could still hit $900B with a major product launch, significant revenue growth, or a new funding round that re-establishes its market dominance. 若OpenAI推出重大产品、实现显著营收增长或获得新融资，仍可能达到9000亿美元估值，重夺市场主导地位。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Anthropic's recent valuation surge and reported surpassing of OpenAI suggest intense competition, making OpenAI's $900B target by June 30 less likely. Anthropic近期估值飙升并超越OpenAI，表明市场竞争激烈，OpenAI在6月30日前达到9000亿美元目标的可能性降低。
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500
#3 · Score 425

Oil Price Forecast Shifts Upward, $85 Low Unlikely 油价预测上调，85美元低点难触及

0% -41.9%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

The probability of WTI crude oil hitting a low of $85 in May plummeted to 0%, reflecting strong market confidence that prices will remain above this threshold. This sharp decline was primarily driven by a supermajor's warning of potential $160 oil prices and reports of multiple ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI原油在5月触及85美元低点的可能性骤降至0%，反映市场坚信油价将保持在此水平之上。这一下跌主要受一家石油巨头警告油价可能升至160美元以及霍尔木兹海峡船只遇袭报道的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Supermajor warns oil prices could hit $160
  • Chevron CEO reports Strait of Hormuz attacks
  • Geopolitical tensions threaten global oil supply
  • 石油巨头警告油价或达160美元
  • 雪佛龙CEO报告霍尔木兹海峡遇袭
  • 地缘政治紧张威胁全球石油供应
This shift indicates heightened concerns over global oil supply disruptions and strong demand outlooks, potentially leading to increased energy costs for consumers and businesses worldwide. It signals a robust upward price bias in the near term. 这一转变表明市场对全球石油供应中断的担忧加剧，以及对需求前景的强劲预期，可能导致全球消费者和企业面临更高的能源成本。它预示着短期内油价将呈现强劲上涨趋势。
Vol 24h: $3,290,511 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating Iran deal hopes and sustained weekly oil price collapses could push WTI below $85. 伊朗协议希望升温及油价持续周度下跌，可能推动WTI跌破85美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and supermajor warnings of $160 oil prices will keep WTI well above $85. 霍尔木兹海峡地缘政治紧张和巨头160美元油价警告将使WTI远高于85美元。
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500
#4 · Score 375

Meta Downside Risk Eases META触及480美元低点概率下降

8% -37.1%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?

The probability of Meta hitting $480 in June has significantly decreased by 37.1% to 8%, primarily driven by new monetization strategies and shareholder returns. Meta's announcement of quarterly cash dividends and the rollout of Facebook, Instagram, and AI chatbot subscriptions signal new revenue streams and financial stability. META在6月触及480美元低点的概率大幅下降37.1%至8%，主要受新的变现策略和股东回报利好消息驱动。Meta宣布派发季度现金股息，并推出Facebook、Instagram及AI聊天机器人订阅服务，预示着新的收入来源和财务稳定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta announces quarterly cash dividend
  • Facebook/Instagram subscriptions rollout
  • AI chatbot subscription plans revealed
  • Meta宣布季度现金股息
  • Facebook/Instagram订阅服务推出
  • AI聊天机器人订阅计划公布
These developments indicate Meta's strategic shift towards diversifying revenue beyond advertising and enhancing shareholder value. Successful monetization of AI and social platforms could stabilize earnings and reduce volatility. 这些进展表明Meta正战略性地转向广告以外的收入多元化，并提升股东价值。成功实现AI和社交平台的变现，有望稳定收益并降低波动性。
Vol 24h: $5,793 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New subscription models for social media and AI, coupled with cash dividends, will boost revenue and investor confidence, making a $480 low unlikely. 社交媒体和AI新订阅模式，加上现金股息，将提振营收和投资者信心，使股价跌至480美元低点可能性小。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $40 billion penalty request from Kentucky, if upheld even partially, could severely impact Meta's financials, driving shares down. 肯塔基州400亿美元罚款请求，即使部分成立，也可能严重影响Meta财务，导致股价下跌。
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500
#5 · Score 353

Robinhood Soars: AI & Trump Boost Robinhood飙升：AI与特朗普助力

85% +34.9%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?

The probability of Robinhood (HOOD) hitting $90 in June surged by 34.9% to 85%, driven by the launch of its AI agent for trading and credit card purchases, and the integration of Trump Accounts. These developments are seen as significant catalysts for user growth and engagement. Robinhood (HOOD) 在6月达到90美元的概率飙升34.9%至85%，主要受其AI交易代理推出和特朗普账户整合的消息推动。这些进展被视为该交易平台用户增长和参与度的重要催化剂。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Robinhood launches AI trading agents
  • Platform integrates Trump Accounts app
  • Anticipated user growth and engagement
  • Robinhood推出AI交易代理
  • 平台整合特朗普账户应用
  • 预期用户增长与参与度提升
These innovations could attract new users and diversify Robinhood's revenue streams beyond traditional trading, signaling its push into advanced financial technology. It broadens the platform's appeal to different user segments. 这些创新可能吸引新用户并使Robinhood的收入来源超越传统交易，标志着其在先进金融科技领域的努力。它拓宽了平台对不同用户群体的吸引力。
Vol 24h: $2,853 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New AI trading agents and Trump accounts could significantly boost user engagement and transaction volumes, driving HOOD shares higher. 新的AI交易代理和特朗普账户有望显著提升用户参与度和交易量，从而推高HOOD股价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Sustained user growth from these features is unproven, and broader market volatility or regulatory scrutiny could limit upside. 这些功能带来的用户增长持续性未经证实，市场波动或监管审查可能限制其上涨空间。
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500
#6 · Score 329

OPEN Surges Past $5.00 Target OPEN股价突破5美元目标

100% +32.6%

Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 25 above $5.00?

The probability for Opendoor (OPEN) to finish the week of May 25 above $5.00 surged to 100% as the stock successfully closed above this threshold. This movement was driven by a broad market rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs by May 29, alongside softer inflation data reported on May 21. Opendoor (OPEN) 股价在5月25日当周收盘高于5美元，使其预测市场概率飙升至100%。这一走势得益于大盘普遍上涨，标普500和纳斯达克指数在5月29日创下历史新高，以及5月21日公布的通胀数据走软。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • OPEN's confirmed close above $5.00.
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new all-time highs.
  • Softer monthly inflation data (May 21).
  • General strong market performance in May.
  • OPEN确认收盘高于5美元。
  • 标普500、纳斯达克创历史新高。
  • 5月21日通胀数据好于预期。
  • 5月整体市场表现强劲。
This outcome confirms investor confidence in Opendoor's short-term price stability amidst a robust broader market. It suggests a positive sentiment for real estate tech companies benefiting from favorable economic conditions. 这一结果证实了投资者对Opendoor在强劲大盘背景下短期价格稳定性的信心。它表明市场对受益于有利经济条件的房地产科技公司持积极态度。
Vol 24h: $2,042 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued market strength and positive economic data could sustain OPEN's upward momentum, pushing its price further above $5.00. 市场持续走强和积极经济数据，或将推动OPEN股价远超5美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Any unexpected negative company-specific news or a sudden market downturn could quickly erode gains, bringing OPEN below $5.00. 公司负面消息或市场回调，可能迅速侵蚀涨幅，使OPEN跌破5美元。
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500
#7 · Score 270

Ethereum Surges on ETF Inflows 以太坊ETF资金流入强劲

90% +26.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30?

The probability of Ethereum staying above $2,000 by May 30 surged to 90% due to a "Record ETF Month" indicating significant institutional crypto adoption, despite Bitcoin's recent bearish signals. This broad market optimism is further fueled by successful altcoin presales like AlphaPepe and Pepeto. 尽管比特币出现看跌信号，以太坊在5月30日突破2000美元的概率仍飙升至90%，主要受“ETF创纪录月份”预示的机构资金大量涌入加密市场驱动。AlphaPepe和Pepeto等山寨币预售成功也提振了市场情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "Record ETF Month" signals institutional crypto inflows.
  • Successful AlphaPepe and Pepeto presales.
  • Bullish XRP price predictions ($7-$10).
  • “ETF创纪录月份”预示机构资金流入。
  • AlphaPepe和Pepeto预售成功。
  • XRP价格预测看涨（7-10美元）。
Increased institutional investment through ETFs signifies growing mainstream acceptance and capital infusion into the crypto ecosystem, potentially stabilizing and boosting major assets like Ethereum. 机构通过ETF增加投资，标志着加密货币获得更广泛的主流认可和资本注入，有望稳定并提振以太坊等主要资产。
Vol 24h: $59,260 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued institutional capital inflow via crypto ETFs will likely sustain Ethereum's upward momentum past $2,000. 机构资金通过加密ETF持续流入，将支撑以太坊价格维持在2000美元上方。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's deepening bearish descent could trigger a broader market correction, pulling Ethereum below $2,000. 比特币持续的看跌趋势可能引发市场回调，将以太坊价格拉低至2000美元以下。
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500
#8 · Score 260

Bitcoin Probability Plunges on Weakness 比特币上涨概率暴跌

24% -25.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 30th dropped 25.5% to 24% in 24 hours. This sharp decline was driven by Bitcoin hitting a 6-week low and intensifying market weakness, highlighted by reports of a major holder's collapsing cash runway. 比特币在5月30日上涨的概率在24小时内暴跌25.5%至24%。此次急剧下降主要受比特币触及六周低点和市场普遍疲软加剧的推动，尤其是有报道称某主要持有者的现金流枯竭。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin hits 6-week low
  • Market-wide weakness intensifies
  • Analyst warns of major holder's cash runway collapse
  • 比特币跌至六周低点
  • 市场普遍疲软加剧
  • 分析师警告主要持有者现金流枯竭
This indicates significant bearish pressure on Bitcoin, potentially signaling a deeper correction. The financial health of large institutional holders remains a key concern for market stability. 这表明比特币面临巨大的看跌压力，可能预示着更深层次的调整。大型机构持有者的财务状况仍然是市场稳定的关键担忧。
Vol 24h: $134,092 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Oversold technical signals and a TBO Close Long confirmation could trigger a short-term retracement rally. 超卖技术信号和TBO看涨确认可能引发短期反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued market-wide weakness and potential selling pressure from financially strained institutional holders will persist. 市场普遍疲软和财务紧张的机构持有者可能持续抛售。
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500
#9 · Score 249

Anthropic Valuation Misses $1.1T Target Anthropic估值未达1.1万亿目标

48% -24.5%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Anthropic's probability of hitting a $1.1T valuation by June 30 dropped 24.5% after its latest Series H fundraise. The confirmed post-money valuation of $965 billion, while making it the most valuable AI company, falls short of the $1.1T market threshold. Anthropic在最新一轮H轮融资后，其估值在6月30日前达到1.1万亿美元的可能性下降了24.5%。尽管确认的投后估值高达9650亿美元，使其成为最有价值的AI公司，但仍未达到市场设定的1.1万亿美元门槛。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anthropic's confirmed $965 billion post-money valuation.
  • Series H fundraise of $65 billion reported by TechCrunch.
  • Valuation remains $135 billion below the $1.1T target.
  • Anthropic确认投后估值9650亿美元。
  • TechCrunch报道H轮融资额为650亿美元。
  • 当前估值距离1.1万亿美元目标仍差1350亿美元。
This valuation milestone highlights the intense capital inflow into leading AI companies and sets a new benchmark for private AI startup valuations, impacting future investment trends. 此次估值里程碑凸显了领先AI公司获得的巨额资本流入，并为私人AI初创公司估值设定了新基准，影响未来投资趋势。
Vol 24h: $7,967 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Anthropic's rapid growth and strategic importance could attract further significant investment rounds or an IPO at a higher valuation before June 30. Anthropic的快速增长和战略重要性可能在6月30日前吸引更多重大投资或更高估值的IPO。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Reaching an additional $135 billion in valuation within weeks is challenging without another major funding event or IPO, given the current confirmed valuation. 在几周内将估值再提高1350亿美元极具挑战性，除非有另一轮重大融资或IPO。
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500
#10 · Score 153

Quantum IPO Valuation Shifts 量子IPO估值变动

3% -14.9%

Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close on IPO day?

The probability of Quantinuum's market cap landing between $10B and $13B on IPO day plummeted by 14.9% to 3%. This sharp decline was primarily driven by IBM's recent pledge of a $10 billion investment in quantum computing, signaling a much higher valuation expectation for the quantum sector. Quantinuum在IPO首日市值介于100亿至130亿美元之间的可能性骤降14.9%至3%。这一显著下降主要受IBM近期承诺向量子计算投资100亿美元的推动，预示着量子领域估值预期大幅提高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IBM's $10B investment boosts quantum sector valuation expectations.
  • Strong IPO market appetite, exemplified by INNIO's $19.1B valuation.
  • Increased investor confidence in quantum computing's growth potential.
  • IBM 100亿美元投资提升量子领域估值预期。
  • IPO市场需求旺盛，INNIO估值达191亿美元为证。
  • 投资者对量子计算增长潜力信心增强。
This movement reflects growing investor confidence and significant capital inflow into the nascent but rapidly advancing quantum computing industry, potentially setting high benchmarks for future tech IPOs. 这一变化反映了投资者对新兴但快速发展的量子计算行业的信心增强和大量资金流入，可能为未来的科技IPO设定高标准。
Vol 24h: $1,264 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite sector enthusiasm, Quantinuum's IPO valuation could be tempered by market caution, leading it to land within the $10B-$13B range. 尽管行业热情高涨，Quantinuum的IPO估值可能因市场谨慎而有所缓和，使其市值落在100亿至130亿美元区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 IBM's massive $10B quantum investment will likely propel Quantinuum's IPO market cap significantly above the $13B threshold. IBM高达100亿美元的量子投资很可能将Quantinuum的IPO市值推高至远超130亿美元的门槛。
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500
#11 · Score 145

Dip Probability Drops on Rally Hopes 反弹预期致比特币下跌概率下降

12% -14.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?

The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $72,000 by May 31st decreased significantly, driven by mounting oversold signals suggesting a potential retracement rally. This reassessment occurred despite Bitcoin recently hitting a 6-week low. 比特币在5月31日前跌至72,000美元的概率显著下降，主要受超卖信号增多和潜在反弹预期的驱动。尽管比特币近期触及六周低点，市场仍进行了重新评估。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's oversold signals are mounting
  • Analyst suggests potential retracement rally
  • Market re-evaluates immediate downside risk
  • 比特币超卖信号增多
  • 分析师暗示可能出现反弹
  • 市场重估短期下行风险
This movement indicates a shift in short-term market sentiment, suggesting traders anticipate a temporary bounce rather than an immediate, deeper plunge, impacting trading strategies. 这一变化表明短期市场情绪有所转变，交易者预期可能出现暂时反弹而非立即深度下跌，影响交易策略。
Vol 24h: $76,692 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin's bearish descent deepens, hitting a 6-week low, with miners like Bitdeer selling BTC, indicating sustained downward pressure. 比特币熊市下跌加剧，触及六周低点，矿工如Bitdeer抛售比特币，预示持续下行压力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Mounting oversold signals suggest a potential retracement rally, making an immediate dip to $72,000 less likely by May 31st. 市场出现超卖信号，预示可能出现反弹，使得比特币在5月31日前跌至72,000美元的可能性降低。
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500
#12 · Score 113

Trump's Sign-Off Dims US-Iran Meeting Hopes 特朗普批准存疑 美伊会谈前景黯淡

36% +10.8%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Despite reports of a tentative US-Iran deal for a ceasefire and nuclear talks, the probability of no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, rose sharply due to the deal's critical dependence on President Trump's final sign-off. This uncertainty, coupled with ongoing US/Israeli strikes and Iranian warnings, suggests a high risk of collapse. 尽管有报道称美伊达成停火及核谈判初步协议，但由于该协议需特朗普总统最终批准，导致2026年6月30日前无合格外交会谈的概率急剧上升。这种不确定性，加上美以持续空袭和伊朗警告，预示协议破裂风险高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tentative deal pending Trump's final sign-off
  • Ongoing US and Israeli strikes on Iran
  • Iran's IRGC warns of renewed combat
  • 初步协议待特朗普最终批准
  • 美以持续对伊朗进行空袭
  • 伊朗革命卫队警告重启战事
A failure to meet diplomatically risks escalating regional conflict and complicates international nuclear non-proliferation efforts. 外交会谈的失败可能加剧地区冲突，并使国际核不扩散努力复杂化。
Vol 24h: $13,949 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 President Trump's anticipated refusal to sign the tentative deal, amid escalating military tensions, makes a diplomatic meeting unlikely. 特朗普总统预计将拒绝签署初步协议，加剧军事紧张，使外交会谈难以实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 President Trump approves the tentative deal, leading to de-escalation and a qualifying diplomatic meeting by the deadline. 特朗普总统批准初步协议，促成局势降级，并在截止日期前举行合格外交会谈。
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500
#13 · Score 109

Bitcoin Probability Plunges Amid Price Drop 比特币概率骤降，价格承压

29% -10.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31?

The probability of Bitcoin being between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31 has dropped by 10.5% to 29%. This decline is primarily driven by Bitcoin hitting a 6-week low and deepening bearish sentiment. 比特币在5月31日介于74,000至76,000美元之间的概率下降10.5%至29%。这主要受比特币跌至6周低点及看跌情绪加深所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin hit a 6-week low.
  • Analyst cited 'Strategy's cash runway' collapse.
  • KITCO reported Bitcoin's 'bearish descent' deepening.
  • 比特币跌至6周低点。
  • 分析师称“Strategy”现金流枯竭。
  • KITCO报道比特币熊市深化。
This movement reflects growing concerns about Bitcoin's short-term price stability and potential institutional selling pressure. A sustained downtrend could impact broader crypto market confidence. 这一变化反映了市场对比特币短期价格稳定性的担忧，以及潜在的机构抛售压力。持续下跌可能影响整体加密市场信心。
Vol 24h: $6,591 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Oversold signals could trigger a retracement rally, pushing Bitcoin back towards the target range. 超卖信号可能引发反弹，推动比特币价格回到目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure from major holders and deepening bearish trends will drive prices lower. 主要持有者持续抛售及熊市趋势深化将进一步压低价格。
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#14 · Score 103

Sunshine Silver IPO Cap Rises 阳光白银市值预测上升

26% +10.0%

Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?

Sunshine Silver's market cap probability for its IPO day range of $2B-$2.25B rose 10% to 26%. This increase was primarily driven by the company successfully closing its Share Purchase Plan for the Mt Moss acquisition, exceeding its $3 million target. 阳光白银IPO当日市值介于20亿至22.5亿美元的概率上升10%至26%。主要驱动因素是该公司成功完成Mt Moss收购的股份购买计划，超额募集资金。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Sunshine Silver's SPP for Mt Moss acquisition oversubscribed.
  • Strong pre-IPO investor confidence in Sunshine Silver.
  • Active US IPO market with several big deals ahead.
  • 阳光白银Mt Moss收购SPP超额认购。
  • IPO前投资者对阳光白银信心强劲。
  • 美国IPO市场活跃，多宗交易将启动。
The successful SPP indicates strong investor appetite for Sunshine Silver, potentially setting a positive precedent for its IPO valuation and future growth prospects. 成功的SPP表明投资者对阳光白银有强烈兴趣，可能为其IPO估值和未来增长前景奠定积极基础。
Vol 24h: $2,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelming investor demand for Sunshine Silver's SPP signals strong confidence, likely pushing its IPO market cap into the target range. 投资者对阳光白银SPP的强烈需求预示着信心十足，可能推动其IPO市值进入目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite SPP success, broader market volatility or specific sector challenges could still prevent Sunshine Silver from hitting the target IPO valuation. 尽管SPP成功，但市场波动或行业挑战仍可能阻止阳光白银达到目标IPO估值。
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#15 · Score 103

Egg Price Range More Likely 鸡蛋价格区间概率上升

45% +10.0%

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?

The probability of a dozen eggs costing $2.25-$2.50 in May rose 10% to 45%, driven by renewed concerns over general grocery price inflation. Headlines like Newsweek's "Grocery Prices Are Rising Again" and "Tomatoes become latest symbol of America’s affordability squeeze" suggest upward pressure on food costs. 5月份一打鸡蛋价格在2.25-2.50美元区间的概率上升10%至45%，主要受对食品杂货价格普遍上涨的担忧驱动。例如《新闻周刊》的“杂货价格再次上涨”和《太阳纪事报》的“番茄成为美国负担能力紧缩的最新象征”等头条预示食品成本面临上行压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Newsweek's report on rising 2026 grocery prices.
  • "Tomatoes become latest symbol of America’s affordability squeeze."
  • Viral Walmart grocery receipt highlighting high costs.
  • 《新闻周刊》报道2026年杂货价格上涨。
  • “番茄成为美国负担能力紧缩的最新象征”。
  • 沃尔玛购物小票走红，凸显高物价。
Rising food prices impact household budgets significantly, potentially affecting consumer spending and broader economic stability. 食品价格上涨对家庭预算影响巨大，可能影响消费者支出和更广泛的经济稳定。
Vol 24h: $1,385 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent food inflation, as indicated by recent reports, will likely drive egg prices into the $2.25-$2.50 range by May. 持续的食品通胀，如近期报道所示，很可能推动5月份鸡蛋价格进入2.25-2.50美元区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden increase in egg supply or a decrease in demand could prevent prices from settling within the $2.25-$2.50 target. 鸡蛋供应意外增加或需求下降，可能导致价格无法稳定在2.25-2.50美元目标区间。
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500
#16 · Score 98

Trump's Veto Threat Sinks Iran Deal Odds 特朗普审批，伊朗协议受阻

5% -9.2%

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31st plummeted by 9.2% to 5% despite reports of a breakthrough, as headlines consistently highlighted the deal's dependence on President Trump's final approval. This suggests market participants view Trump's imminent decision and potential demands, like opening the Hormuz Strait, as significant obstacles to meeting the deadline. 尽管有报道称美伊已达成突破性协议，但由于新闻持续强调协议需特朗普总统最终批准，该市场在24小时内暴跌9.2%至5%。市场参与者认为特朗普的最终决定及其可能提出的要求（如开放霍尔木兹海峡）是协议在5月31日前达成的重大障碍。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reports of deal contingent on Trump's approval.
  • President Trump's imminent decision on the deal.
  • Trump's demand for Hormuz Strait opening.
  • 协议需特朗普总统最终批准。
  • 特朗普即将对协议做出决定。
  • 特朗普要求开放霍尔木兹海峡。
A US-Iran deal could significantly reshape Middle East geopolitics, energy markets, and international relations, impacting regional stability and global trade routes. 美伊协议将重塑中东地缘政治、能源市场及国际关系，影响地区稳定和全球贸易。
Vol 24h: $837,077 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump could unexpectedly approve the deal quickly, or the reported 'breakthrough' is more solid than perceived, pushing the probability higher. 特朗普可能迅速批准协议，或现有突破比预期更坚实，推高概率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 President Trump's demands or reluctance to sign off before May 31st will prevent the deal from being finalized by the deadline. 特朗普的要求或不愿在5月31日前签署，将阻止协议按时完成。
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500
#17 · Score 91

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Sale Odds Drop 微策略比特币出售概率下降

18% -8.6%

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

The probability of MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin by May 31, 2026, decreased by 8.6% to 18%. This shift is primarily driven by news of Bitdeer consistently selling its mined Bitcoin, reinforcing MicroStrategy's long-term holding strategy. 微策略在2026年5月31日前出售比特币的概率下降8.6%至18%。这一变化主要受Bitdeer连续14周出售其所挖比特币的消息驱动，强化了微策略的长期持有策略。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitdeer sells 206 BTC, 14th straight week
  • Reinforces MicroStrategy's long-term HODL strategy
  • Absence of MicroStrategy-specific selling catalysts
  • Bitdeer连续14周出售206枚比特币
  • 强化微策略长期持有比特币策略
  • 缺乏微策略出售比特币的具体催化剂
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings are substantial, and any sale would significantly impact the broader crypto market sentiment and price. Their strategy influences corporate adoption of Bitcoin. 微策略持有大量比特币，任何出售都将显著影响更广泛的加密市场情绪和价格。其策略影响企业对比特币的采用。
Vol 24h: $867,693 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 MicroStrategy faces unforeseen liquidity needs or a major strategic shift, compelling them to sell Bitcoin. 微策略面临意外流动性需求或重大战略转变，迫使其出售比特币。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 MicroStrategy adheres to its long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy, viewing current market conditions as unsuitable for selling. 微策略坚持其长期比特币积累策略，认为当前市场条件不适合出售。
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#18 · Score 80

Launch Success Boosts FDV Outlook 新品发布成功推高FDV预期

48% +7.5%

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

The probability for an extended FDV above $300M one day after launch increased by 7.5% to 48%, primarily driven by news of strong initial sales for new products. Specifically, the '007 First Light' game reported massive launch-day sales numbers, signaling robust market reception for new releases. 一项新项目发布一天后，FDV超过3亿美元的概率上升了7.5%至48%，主要受新产品强劲初期销售新闻的推动。具体而言，《007 First Light》游戏公布了巨大的首发日销售额，预示着市场对新发布的积极接受。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 007 First Light's massive launch-day sales
  • Positive sentiment for new product launches
  • 《007 First Light》首发日销售强劲
  • 市场对新产品发布持积极情绪
This market reflects investor confidence in the immediate post-launch valuation of new ventures, which is crucial for early-stage funding and market perception. A high FDV indicates strong initial demand and potential for future growth. 该市场反映了投资者对新项目发布后即时估值的信心，这对于早期融资和市场认知至关重要。高FDV表明了强劲的初始需求和未来的增长潜力。
Vol 24h: $71,668 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong initial market reception for new launches, as seen with '007 First Light,' suggests high demand supporting a $300M+ FDV. 《007 First Light》等新产品强劲的首发表现，预示市场需求旺盛，有望支撑3亿美元以上FDV。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader economic uncertainties or negative sentiment could temper investor enthusiasm for high valuations post-launch. 宏观经济不确定性或负面情绪可能抑制投资者对新项目高估值的热情。
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500
#19 · Score 79

Pakistan Trade Deal Hopes Rise 巴基斯坦贸易协议希望升温

14% +7.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?

The probability of a US-Pakistan trade deal before 2027 rose to 14% (+7.5%), primarily driven by discussions around Pakistan potentially joining the Abraham Accords. The dw.com article highlights the 'tricky choice' but also 'benefits for Islamabad,' signaling potential for stronger US-Pakistan diplomatic ties. 美国与巴基斯坦在2027年前达成新贸易协议的可能性升至14%（+7.5%），主要受巴基斯坦可能加入《亚伯拉罕协议》的讨论推动。dw.com文章强调了这一‘艰难选择’但也提及‘对伊斯兰堡的益处’，预示着美巴外交关系可能加强。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Pakistan's Abraham Accords consideration
  • Potential for stronger US-Pakistan ties
  • Active US trade talks with other nations
  • 巴基斯坦考虑《亚伯拉罕协议》
  • 美巴关系加强的潜力
  • 美国与其他国家积极贸易谈判
A US-Pakistan trade deal could significantly boost Pakistan's economy and deepen strategic ties between the two nations. It would also reshape regional trade dynamics and US influence in South Asia. 美巴贸易协议能显著提振巴基斯坦经济，并深化两国战略关系。它还将重塑区域贸易格局及美国在南亚的影响力。
Vol 24h: $30,345 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Pakistan joining Abraham Accords would significantly strengthen US ties, paving the way for a comprehensive trade agreement. 巴基斯坦加入《亚伯拉罕协议》将显著加强美巴关系，为全面贸易协议铺平道路。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical complexities or domestic opposition could prevent Pakistan from joining Accords, hindering trade deal progress. 地缘政治复杂性或国内反对可能阻止巴基斯坦加入协议，阻碍贸易协议进展。
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500
#20 · Score 79

Trump Approval Delay Sinks Deal Hopes 特朗普延迟审批，协议前景蒙阴

52% -7.5%

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31st dropped by 7.5% to 52% as President Trump delays approval of a negotiator-agreed MoU, compounded by Iran's reported ceasefire violation. 美伊核协议在7月31日前达成的可能性下降7.5%至52%，因特朗普总统延迟批准谅解备忘录，且伊朗被报违反停火协议。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • President Trump delays MoU approval
  • Iran violated ceasefire with missile launch
  • Iran's final approval also pending
  • 特朗普总统延迟批准谅解备忘录
  • 伊朗被报发射导弹违反停火
  • 伊朗方面也尚未最终批准
A deal could de-escalate regional tensions and impact global oil markets, while failure risks further conflict. 协议可缓解地区紧张并影响全球油市，失败则可能加剧冲突。
Vol 24h: $11,082 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Trump approves the MoU, and Iran gives final OK, securing the deal by July 31. 特朗普和伊朗最终批准谅解备忘录，确保协议在7月31日前达成。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Trump rejects the MoU or Iran's ceasefire violation derails final approval, preventing a deal. 特朗普拒绝或伊朗违反停火导致最终批准失败，协议无法达成。
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500
#21 · Score 75

Trump's Sign-Off Dents Iran Deal Hopes 特朗普批准存疑，伊朗核协议前景降温

42% -7.0%

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 fell 7% to 42%, despite reports of negotiators reaching a tentative agreement. The market reacted to the critical caveat that any deal remains pending former President Trump's final approval, as reported by Mediaite and New York Post. 尽管有报道称谈判代表已达成初步协议，但美国与伊朗在6月30日前达成核协议的可能性下降了7%至42%。市场对Mediaite和New York Post报道的任何协议仍需前总统特朗普最终批准的关键限制做出了反应。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Deal pending Trump's final sign-off
  • Negotiated agreement is only 'tentative'
  • Focus on ceasefire extension, new talks
  • 协议需特朗普最终批准
  • 谈判达成协议仅为“初步”
  • 侧重停火延长及新谈判
A nuclear deal could de-escalate regional tensions and reshape global energy markets, while failure risks renewed conflict. 核协议可能缓解地区紧张局势并重塑全球能源市场，失败则可能导致冲突再起。
Vol 24h: $208,037 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Negotiators' 'tentative agreement' signals strong progress, making Trump's eventual sign-off more likely. 谈判代表达成“初步协议”表明进展强劲，特朗普最终批准可能性增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Trump's unpredictable stance and the deal's tentative nature make final approval by June 30 highly uncertain. 特朗普立场难测且协议尚属初步，6月30日前获批高度不确定。
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500
#22 · Score 74

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?

6% -7.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $28,832 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 69

Iran Enrichment Deal Unlikely by May 31 伊朗核协议5月31日前难达成

3% -6.4%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

The probability of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by May 31 dropped significantly to 3% as recent headlines highlight Iran's use of highly enriched uranium as a key bargaining chip. Ongoing discussions focus on managing existing stockpiles and dilution rather than a complete halt to enrichment. 伊朗同意在5月31日前停止铀浓缩的可能性降至3%，主要原因是近期头条强调伊朗将高浓缩铀作为关键谈判筹码。当前讨论侧重于管理现有储备和稀释，而非完全停止浓缩。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran views highly enriched uranium as key negotiation leverage.
  • Ongoing US/Israeli strikes and Iran's response heighten tensions.
  • Discussions focus on dilution, not ending enrichment by May 31.
  • Political opposition complicates any uranium transfer deals.
  • 伊朗视高浓缩铀为关键谈判筹码。
  • 美以袭击与伊朗回应加剧紧张。
  • 谈判侧重稀释而非5月31日前停止浓缩。
  • 政治反对派阻碍铀转让协议。
Iran's nuclear program remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint, impacting regional stability and international non-proliferation efforts. Failure to reach an agreement could escalate tensions further. 伊朗核计划仍是关键地缘政治燃点，影响地区稳定和国际防扩散努力。未能达成协议可能进一步加剧紧张局势。
Vol 24h: $132,407 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unexpected diplomatic breakthrough leads Iran to agree to halt enrichment before the May 31 deadline. 意外外交突破促使伊朗在5月31日前同意停止铀浓缩。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Iran continues to use uranium enrichment as leverage, or negotiations fail to yield a full halt by May 31. 伊朗继续将铀浓缩作为筹码，或谈判未能在5月31日前达成全面停止。
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500
#24 · Score 66

Trump Approval Halts Iran Deal 特朗普批准阻碍伊朗协议

0% -5.9%

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

The probability of a US-Iran agreement announcement by May 29 plummeted to 0% after an MOU for a 60-day ceasefire extension was reported. The critical condition that President Trump must approve the deal, coupled with ongoing US/Israeli strikes and Iranian responses, drove the market to conclude no announcement would occur by the deadline. 尽管有报道称美伊已达成60天停火延长谅解备忘录，但市场对5月29日前宣布协议的概率跌至0%。主要驱动因素是该协议需特朗普总统批准，加上美以对伊持续打击及伊朗的反击，市场认为截止日期前不会有正式宣布。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump's required approval for MOU.
  • Ongoing US/Israeli strikes on Iran.
  • Iran's Axis of Resistance response.
  • 特朗普总统批准是必要条件。
  • 美以对伊朗持续空袭。
  • 伊朗抵抗轴心采取反击。
A US-Iran agreement could significantly de-escalate Middle East tensions, impacting global oil markets and regional stability. 美伊协议能显著缓解中东紧张局势，影响全球石油市场和地区稳定。
Vol 24h: $1,523,658 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 President Trump could unexpectedly approve the ceasefire extension, leading to an announcement by the deadline. 特朗普总统可能出人意料地批准停火延长，促成截止日期前宣布协议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 President Trump's approval is highly unlikely by May 29, solidifying the 0% probability. 特朗普总统在5月29日前批准协议的可能性极低，维持0%概率。
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500
#25 · Score 64

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on

37% +6.0%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $6,546 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 63

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?

100% +6.0%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,097 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 59

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?

97% +5.5%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $52,082 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 57

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

4% -5.0%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,235,908 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 56

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra

16% -5.0%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,396,628 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 48

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin

10% -4.5%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,199 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 29

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

38% -2.5%

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,421 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#32 · Score 23

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?

8% -2.0%

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,159 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。