AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 15, 2026 11:17 UTC
#1 · Score 897

Russia Nears Pokrovka Capture 俄罗斯逼近波克罗夫斯克

97% +89.2%

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?

The probability of Russia capturing Pokrovka by July 31 surged to 97% following reports of Ukraine opening a new front in the Sea of Azov, potentially diverting critical defensive resources. This strategic shift, combined with ongoing Russian force expansion, indicates an imminent breakthrough. 俄罗斯在7月31日前占领波克罗夫斯克的可能性飙升至97%，此前有报道称乌克兰在亚速海开辟新战线，可能分散关键防御资源。这一战略转移，加上俄罗斯持续的兵力扩张，预示着即将取得突破。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ukraine opens new Sea of Azov front, diverting resources.
  • Analysis confirms Russian force expansion and mass application.
  • Short July 31 deadline for capture.
  • 乌克兰开辟亚速海新战线，分散资源。
  • 分析证实俄罗斯兵力扩张及大规模部署。
  • 7月31日最后期限临近。
Capturing Pokrovka would be a significant tactical victory for Russia, potentially opening further avenues for advance in Donetsk Oblast and impacting the broader war narrative. It could also signal a shift in the strategic balance if Ukraine is forced to overextend. 占领波克罗夫斯克将是俄罗斯重要的战术胜利，可能为在顿涅茨克州的进一步推进打开通道，并影响更广泛的战争叙事。如果乌克兰被迫过度分散兵力，这也可能预示着战略平衡的转变。
Vol 24h: $55,935 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Ukraine's new Sea of Azov front diverts critical resources, enabling Russia's expanded forces to swiftly capture Pokrovka by July 31. 乌克兰在亚速海开辟新战线分散了关键资源，使俄罗斯扩大的兵力能在7月31日前迅速占领波克罗夫斯克。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite diversions, Ukrainian forces hold Pokrovka, or Russia's recruitment shortfalls prevent effective exploitation of the new front. 尽管乌克兰兵力分散，但其部队仍能守住波克罗夫斯克，或俄罗斯的征兵不足阻碍其有效利用新战线。
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500
#2 · Score 891

IBM Earnings Warning Crushes Beat Hopes IBM盈利预警，超越预期希望渺茫

1% -88.7%

Will IBM (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?

The probability of IBM beating quarterly earnings plummeted to 1% after the company pre-announced that Q2 earnings fell short of expectations. CEO Arvind Krishna's extraordinary warning led to a massive stock drop, with shares falling over 25%. IBM预先宣布第二季度盈利不及预期后，其超越季度盈利的概率暴跌至1%。CEO Arvind Krishna的特别警告导致股价暴跌超过25%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IBM pre-announced Q2 earnings fell short of expectations.
  • CEO Arvind Krishna issued an "extraordinary warning" on earnings.
  • IBM stock dropped over 25% following the pre-announcement.
  • IBM预告Q2盈利不及市场预期。
  • CEO Arvind Krishna发布“特别警告”。
  • IBM股价因此暴跌超过25%。
This reflects significant operational challenges for a tech giant and could signal broader economic headwinds impacting enterprise spending. It also highlights the immediate market reaction to pre-earnings disclosures. 这反映了这家科技巨头面临的重大运营挑战，并可能预示影响企业支出的更广泛经济逆风。这也突显了市场对盈利前披露的即时反应。
Vol 24h: $6,090 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Actual results might slightly exceed the extremely low expectations set by the severe pre-announcement. 实际业绩可能略高于预警设定的极低预期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 IBM's explicit pre-announcement of falling short makes beating earnings virtually impossible. IBM明确预告盈利不及预期，超越几乎不可能。
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500
#3 · Score 617

Hormuz Traffic Plummets Amid Blockade 霍尔木兹海峡交通骤降

33% -61.3%

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

The probability of 30 ships transiting Hormuz by July 2026 plummeted by 61.3% to 33% as escalating US-Iran clashes and a reimposed naval blockade severely restricted shipping. Recent data showed traffic slowing to a multi-week low of six vessels on Sunday, far from the target. 霍尔木兹海峡到2026年7月31日单日30艘船只通行的可能性暴跌61.3%至33%，原因是美国与伊朗冲突升级及重启海军封锁严重限制了航运。最新数据显示，周日通行船只降至数周低点仅六艘，远低于目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US reimposes naval blockade on Iran
  • Escalating US-Iran military strikes
  • Shipping traffic slows to multi-week low
  • Increased safety risks for vessels
  • 美国对伊朗重启海军封锁
  • 美伊军事冲突持续升级
  • 航运量降至数周低点
  • 船只通行安全风险增高
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and disruptions here can trigger significant energy market volatility. This situation also reflects broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油供应的关键咽喉，该地区的任何中断都可能引发能源市场剧烈波动。此情况也反映了中东地区更广泛的地缘政治不稳定。
Vol 24h: $62,035 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation of US-Iran tensions and removal of the naval blockade could rapidly restore shipping confidence and volume. 美伊紧张局势缓和并解除海军封锁，可迅速恢复航运信心和运量。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued military escalation and enforcement of the blockade will further deter shipping, making the 30-ship target unattainable. 军事冲突持续升级及封锁执行，将进一步阻碍航运，使30艘船只目标无法实现。
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500
#4 · Score 598

PayPal Acquisition Probability Surges on Stripe/Advent Offer PayPal收购概率因Stripe/Advent报价飙升

75% +59.5%

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

The probability of PayPal being acquired before 2027 jumped to 75% following reports of a $53 billion acquisition offer. Reuters, CNBC, and Seeking Alpha confirmed Stripe and Advent International's bid for the payments giant. PayPal在2027年前被收购的概率跃升至75%，此前有报道称Stripe和Advent International出价530亿美元收购PayPal。路透社、CNBC和Seeking Alpha证实了这一支付巨头的收购要约。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Stripe/Advent offer to buy PayPal for $53B
  • Reuters, CNBC, Seeking Alpha confirm bid
  • Concrete acquisition offer reported
  • Stripe/Advent出价530亿美元收购PayPal
  • 路透社、CNBC等证实收购要约
  • 具体收购报价被广泛报道
A successful acquisition would reshape the competitive landscape of the global digital payments industry, creating a formidable new entity. It also signals strong M&A activity in the fintech sector. 此次收购若成功，将重塑全球数字支付行业的竞争格局，并催生一个强大的新实体。这也预示着金融科技领域的并购活动活跃。
Vol 24h: $3,015 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The reported $53 billion offer from Stripe and Advent is a serious, credible bid, making a PayPal acquisition highly probable before 2027. Stripe和Advent提出的530亿美元收购要约是严肃且可信的，使PayPal在2027年前被收购的可能性极高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 PayPal's board could reject the current $53 billion offer, or significant regulatory challenges might ultimately block the proposed deal. PayPal董事会可能拒绝530亿美元的报价，或面临重大监管障碍，最终阻止此次收购。
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500
#5 · Score 540

China GDP Slowdown Anchors 2026 Forecast 中国GDP放缓锚定2026增长

97% +53.5%

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

China's Q2 GDP growth for the current year registered 4.3%, precisely the lower bound of the target range for Q2 2026. This actual data, alongside reports of a significant economic slowdown and missed expectations, dramatically increased confidence in future growth stabilizing within this narrow band. 中国本年度第二季度GDP增长录得4.3%，恰好是2026年第二季度目标区间的下限。这一实际数据，加上经济显著放缓和未达预期的报告，极大地提升了市场对未来增长将稳定在这一窄幅区间的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • China's Q2 GDP growth reported at 4.3%.
  • Economy posts slowest growth since 2022.
  • Growth missed expectations amid Iran turmoil.
  • 中国第二季度GDP增长报告为4.3%。
  • 经济增速创2022年以来新低。
  • 受伊朗局势影响增长未达预期。
This market reflects investor confidence in China's long-term growth trajectory, impacting global trade, commodity prices, and investment strategies. 该市场反映了投资者对中国长期增长轨迹的信心，影响全球贸易、大宗商品价格和投资策略。
Vol 24h: $38,690 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent structural challenges and global headwinds will likely keep China's Q2 2026 GDP growth anchored near the current 4.3% level. 持续挑战和全球逆风，或使2026年Q2 GDP稳定在4.3%附近。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Significant policy interventions or unforeseen global events could push Q2 2026 growth outside the 4.3%-4.6% range. 政策干预或突发事件，或使2026年Q2增长偏离目标区间。
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500
#6 · Score 509

Bitcoin Plummets on Mining Losses 比特币因矿企亏损暴跌

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5AM ET

The probability for Bitcoin to be 'Up' by July 15 plummeted to 0% after news of Eric Trump's mining venture losing over $600M and BitFuFu selling 184 BTC, signaling significant selling pressure. Bitcoin also slipped below $63,000 in an Asian-session leverage flush. 比特币上涨概率跌至0%，因Eric Trump矿企巨亏超6亿美元，且BitFuFu出售184枚比特币，预示巨大抛售压力。比特币也跌破6.3万美元，经历亚洲盘杠杆清算。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Eric Trump's ABTC lost over $600M.
  • ABTC's 8,000+ BTC holdings face selling pressure.
  • BitFuFu sold 184 BTC, adding supply.
  • Eric Trump矿企ABTC巨亏6亿美元。
  • ABTC持有的8000+ BTC面临抛售。
  • BitFuFu出售184枚比特币。
These events underscore the financial fragility of major crypto mining operations and the potential for significant selling pressure, impacting broader market stability and investor confidence. 这些事件凸显大型加密矿企的财务脆弱性及潜在抛售压力，影响市场整体稳定性及投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $30,172 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong technical support levels or unexpected positive macro news could trigger a rapid rebound. 强劲技术支撑或突发利好宏观消息可能引发快速反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure from mining companies and broader market weakness will drive prices lower. 矿企持续抛售和市场整体疲软将进一步压低币价。
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500
#7 · Score 460

Miliband Chancellor Odds Plummet 米利班德财相概率骤降

17% -45.5%

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ed Miliband's probability as Chancellor in 2026 dropped significantly to 17% following strong indications that Andy Burnham is set to become the next UK Prime Minister. This shift suggests Burnham will appoint his own Chancellor, sidelining Miliband. 随着安迪·伯纳姆有望成为下任英国首相的强烈迹象，埃德·米利班德在2026年担任财政大臣的概率大幅降至17%。这一变化表明伯纳姆将任命自己的财相，使米利班德被边缘化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Andy Burnham "set to be the UK's next prime minister" (BBC).
  • Gilt market "holding its breath" for Chancellor pick, mentioning Andy Burnham (CNBC).
  • No headlines link Ed Miliband to the Chancellor role.
  • 安迪·伯纳姆“有望成为下任英国首相”（BBC）。
  • 金边债券市场“屏息以待财相人选”，提及伯纳姆（CNBC）。
  • 无新闻将米利班德与财相职位关联。
The Chancellor's appointment is pivotal for the UK's economic direction, impacting financial markets and public policy under a new Prime Minister. 财政大臣的任命对英国经济走向至关重要，影响新首相领导下的金融市场和公共政策。
Vol 24h: $43,537 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Miliband could still be a surprise Chancellor choice by a new PM, perhaps due to specific policy needs or internal party dynamics. 尽管伯纳姆崛起，米利班德仍可能因特定政策需求或党内动态被意外任命为财相。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Andy Burnham's likely premiership means he will appoint his own Chancellor, making Miliband an improbable choice for the role. 安迪·伯纳姆很可能出任首相，他将任命自己的财政大臣，使米利班德担任此职的可能性极低。
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500
#8 · Score 440

Bitcoin $65K July Certainty Surges 比特币七月必达6.5万

100% +43.5%

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?

The prediction market for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in July has surged to 100% certainty, a remarkable +43.5% change, despite recent headlines detailing significant losses for Eric Trump's mining venture and BitFuFu selling 184 BTC. This indicates an overwhelming market belief in an imminent price target achievement, potentially driven by an unstated, powerful bullish forecast. 预测市场显示比特币七月达到65,000美元的概率已飙升至100%，24小时内上涨43.5%，尽管近期新闻报道了埃里克·特朗普矿业损失超6亿美元及BitFuFu出售184枚比特币。这表明市场对价格目标实现抱有压倒性信心，可能由未公开的强劲看涨预测驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Overwhelming market consensus on Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in July.
  • Potential highly influential bullish forecast from 'Crypto Briefing: Bitcoin price predictions for july'.
  • Market disregard for recent negative news from mining operations like Eric Trump's $600M loss.
  • 市场对七月比特币达到6.5万美元形成压倒性共识。
  • “Crypto Briefing: Bitcoin price predictions for july”可能发布了极度看涨预测。
  • 市场对埃里克·特朗普损失6亿美元等矿企负面消息不予理会。
A 100% probability in such a volatile asset suggests a major, unstated catalyst or an event already transpired, significantly impacting investor confidence. 在如此波动的资产中出现100%的概率，表明存在一个未公开的重大催化剂或事件已发生，极大地影响了投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $130,485 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unstated, highly credible catalyst or a significant price surge has already occurred, making the $65,000 target certain. 存在未公开的极可信催化剂或价格已大幅上涨，使得6.5万美元目标确定无疑。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The market's 100% probability is likely misinformed, given negative headlines like Eric Trump's $600M loss and BitFuFu's BTC sales. 市场100%的概率可能基于错误信息，考虑到埃里克·特朗普损失和BitFuFu出售比特币等负面消息。
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500
#9 · Score 419

Iran Shipping Target Probability Dips 伊朗航运袭击概率下降

7% -41.5%

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 13 decreased significantly by 41.5% to 7%. This drop likely reflects that major reported targeting incidents, such as the tanker off Oman, occurred on July 12, rather than on July 13 itself. 伊朗于7月13日成功袭击航运的概率显著下降41.5%至7%。此次下降可能反映了主要报告的袭击事件（例如阿曼海岸的油轮袭击）发生在7月12日，而非7月13日。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran targeted tanker off Oman on July 12 (Maritime Executive).
  • No new confirmed successful shipping targets reported July 13.
  • July 13 'exchanges of fire' not confirmed as shipping targets.
  • 《海事高管》报道伊朗7月12日袭击阿曼油轮。
  • 7月13日未报告新的成功航运袭击事件。
  • 7月13日“交火”未确认为成功航运袭击。
Escalating US-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf pose significant risks to global shipping lanes and energy markets. The precise timing of attacks impacts market reactions and geopolitical responses. 美伊在波斯湾的紧张局势升级对全球航运线路和能源市场构成重大风险。袭击的精确时间影响市场反应和地缘政治回应。
Vol 24h: $5,483 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued US-Iran escalation could still lead to a confirmed successful shipping target on July 13, if new information emerges. 如果出现新信息，美伊持续升级的紧张局势仍可能导致7月13日成功袭击航运。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The absence of new, confirmed successful shipping targets specifically on July 13 significantly reduces the probability. 7月13日缺乏新的、经证实的成功航运袭击事件，显著降低了该概率。
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500
#10 · Score 390

Ethereum $1,900 July: Bridge Boost 以太坊七月冲刺$1900

91% +38.5%

Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?

Ethereum's probability of reaching $1,900 in July surged to 91% after a 38.5% jump. This was primarily driven by the announcement of new crypto Pepeto launching a cross-chain bridge connecting Ethereum. 以太坊七月达到1900美元的概率飙升38.5%至91%。主要驱动因素是新加密项目Pepeto宣布推出连接以太坊的跨链桥。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • New crypto Pepeto launches cross-chain bridge connecting Ethereum.
  • Enhanced interoperability and utility for the Ethereum network.
  • Strong underlying market confidence in Ethereum's growth.
  • 新加密项目Pepeto推出连接以太坊的跨链桥。
  • 以太坊网络互操作性和实用性显著增强。
  • 市场对以太坊增长的潜在信心强劲。
Increased cross-chain connectivity strengthens Ethereum's position as a central hub in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, attracting more users and projects. 增强的跨链连接巩固了以太坊在去中心化金融（DeFi）生态系统中的核心地位，吸引更多用户和项目。
Vol 24h: $43,328 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued integration and utility growth, exemplified by new cross-chain bridges, will propel Ethereum past $1,900 this month. 持续的生态系统整合和实用性增长，如新的跨链桥，将推动以太坊本月突破1900美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A broader crypto market downturn, hinted at by significant Bitcoin mining losses, could prevent Ethereum from reaching the target. 更广泛的加密市场低迷，如比特币挖矿的巨额亏损所示，可能阻止以太坊达到目标。
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500
#11 · Score 375

Spain's Dominance Boosts 2026 World Cup Odds 西班牙世界杯夺冠概率飙升

58% +36.8%

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Spain's probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup surged to 58% following their dominant 2-0 victory over France in a major semifinal, as reported by FOX Sports and ESPN. This decisive win, propelling them into a significant final, has dramatically increased market confidence in their future World Cup prospects. 西班牙赢得2026年FIFA世界杯的概率飙升至58%，此前他们在据FOX Sports和ESPN报道的一场重要半决赛中以2-0击败法国。这场决定性的胜利使其晋级决赛，显著提升了市场对其未来世界杯前景的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Spain's dominant 2-0 semifinal win over France.
  • Advancing to a major international tournament final.
  • Sustained success across international soccer levels.
  • Media portrayal as an "unsung superpower."
  • 西班牙半决赛2-0战胜法国。
  • 成功晋级重要国际赛事决赛。
  • 国际赛场持续成功的表现。
  • 媒体将其描绘为“无名超级强队”。
This movement reflects a significant re-evaluation of Spain's standing as a global football powerhouse, potentially signaling a new era of dominance. It also highlights the immediate impact of major tournament results on long-term prediction markets. 这一变化反映了市场对西班牙作为全球足球强国地位的重大重新评估，可能预示着一个新时代的到来。它也突显了重大赛事结果对长期预测市场的即时影响。
Vol 24h: $7,351,331 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Spain's current form, exemplified by their dominant win over France and advancement to a final, suggests they are a top contender for 2026. 西班牙目前状态极佳，击败法国晋级决赛，预示其是2026年世界杯的有力竞争者。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Injuries, player retirements, or a decline in form over the next two years could significantly reduce Spain's 2026 chances. 未来两年伤病、球员退役或状态下滑，都可能大幅降低西班牙2026年夺冠机会。
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500
#12 · Score 333

Meta's AI Investment Boosts Outlook Meta AI投资提振前景

42% -33.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Meta hitting a $640 low by July 2026 decreased by 33% to 42%, primarily driven by its massive $50 billion data center expansion in Louisiana. This signals strong long-term AI commitment, overshadowing recent product setbacks. Meta在2026年7月前触及640美元低点的可能性下降33%至42%，主要受其在路易斯安那州投资500亿美元扩建数据中心驱动。这表明了Meta对长期AI战略的坚定承诺，盖过了近期产品失利的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta's $50B Louisiana data center expansion
  • Market confidence in Meta's long-term AI infrastructure
  • Recent AI product failures viewed as minor setbacks
  • Meta路易斯安那州500亿美元数据中心扩建
  • 市场对Meta长期AI基础设施的信心
  • 近期AI产品失败被视为短期挫折
Meta's ability to execute its AI strategy and overcome product missteps is crucial for its future valuation and market position against competitors like Apple. Meta执行AI战略并克服产品失误的能力，对其未来估值及与苹果等竞争对手的市场地位至关重要。
Vol 24h: $1,378 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Massive $50 billion data center investment signals strong long-term AI commitment, making a deep price drop less likely. 500亿美元数据中心巨额投资彰显Meta长期AI决心，降低股价大幅下跌的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Repeated AI product failures and privacy backlashes erode public trust and hinder Meta's innovation and growth. AI产品屡次失败和隐私争议侵蚀公众信任，阻碍Meta创新与增长。
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500
#13 · Score 326

Fed Holds Steady: No July Rate Change 美联储按兵不动：7月利率不变

94% +32.0%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

The probability of no Fed rate change after the July 2026 meeting surged to 94% as recent developments dampened rate hike expectations. Specifically, Fed's Warsh offered no new guidance on rate plans, and mortgage refinance rates remained unchanged on July 13, 2026. 美联储7月2026年会议后利率不变的概率飙升至94%，原因是近期事态发展打压了加息预期。具体而言，美联储沃什对利率计划未提供新指引，且2026年7月13日抵押贷款再融资利率保持不变。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fed's Warsh stayed mum on rate plans.
  • Mortgage refinance rates showed no movement.
  • Reduced expectations for a July rate hike.
  • 美联储沃什对利率计划保持沉默。
  • 抵押贷款再融资利率未变动。
  • 市场对7月加息预期减弱。
This market reflects investor confidence in the Fed's current monetary policy stance, impacting borrowing costs and broader economic stability. A stable rate environment provides certainty for businesses and consumers. 该市场反映投资者对美联储当前货币政策立场的信心，影响借贷成本和整体经济稳定。稳定的利率环境为企业和消费者提供确定性。
Vol 24h: $2,990,479 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent low inflation and stable employment figures will solidify the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. 持续的低通胀和稳定的就业数据将巩固美联储维持利率不变的决定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger-than-expected inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary could prompt a surprise rate hike. 强于预期的通胀数据或鹰派的美联储言论可能促使意外加息。
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500
#14 · Score 315

Fed Pause Odds Soar Amidst Warsh's Debut 美联储暂停预期飙升，沃什首次亮相

92% +31.0%

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

The probability of the Fed pausing rates for April, June, and July surged to 92% (+31.0%), driven by market interpretation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious initial stance and conditional hawkish remarks from Waller. This significant shift indicates strong market confidence in a stable monetary policy path for the near term. 美联储在4月、6月和7月连续暂停加息的概率飙升至92%（+31.0%），这主要源于市场对新任主席凯文·沃什首次亮相的谨慎态度以及沃勒有条件鹰派言论的解读。这一显著变化表明市场对近期货币政策稳定抱有强烈信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • New Fed Chair Warsh's 'no hints' on next move.
  • Waller's conditional hike if core inflation stays hot.
  • Market discounting July hike odds despite CNBC report.
  • 新任美联储主席沃什未暗示下一步行动。
  • 沃勒称若核心通胀过热才需加息。
  • 市场对7月加息预期持保留态度。
This strong conviction in consecutive pauses signals market confidence in inflation moderation and a stable monetary policy path, impacting borrowing costs and economic growth. It suggests investors anticipate the Fed will prioritize economic stability over immediate rate adjustments. 市场对连续暂停加息的强烈信念，预示着对通胀放缓和货币政策稳定的信心，将影响借贷成本和经济增长。这表明投资者预计美联储将优先考虑经济稳定而非立即调整利率。
Vol 24h: $116,667 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger-than-expected disinflation or signs of economic slowdown will solidify the Fed's commitment to consecutive pauses. 超预期通胀放缓或经济放缓迹象，将巩固美联储连续暂停加息的决心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent core inflation or hawkish shifts from Fed officials like Warsh would quickly reverse pause expectations. 核心通胀持续高企或美联储官员（如沃什）转向鹰派，将迅速逆转暂停预期。
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500
#15 · Score 298

SPY $755 Target Surges on Bullish Outlook SPY 755美元目标因看涨前景飙升

86% +29.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability for SPY to hit $755 by July 13, 2026, surged to 86% (+29.5%) driven by highly bullish forecasts and positive economic indicators. Tom Lee's S&P 500 8,000 year-end target, coupled with cool inflation data and solid bank earnings, fueled this optimism. SPY在2026年7月13日当周触及755美元的概率飙升至86%（+29.5%），主要受极度看涨的预测和积极经济指标驱动。Tom Lee对标普500指数8000点的年终目标，加上通胀数据降温和银行盈利强劲，提振了市场乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tom Lee's S&P 500 8,000 year-end forecast
  • Reuters reported cool inflation data
  • Reuters reported solid bank earnings
  • Tom Lee预测标普500年终达8000点
  • 路透社报道通胀数据降温
  • 路透社报道银行盈利稳健
This market reflects strong conviction in continued equity growth and a favorable macroeconomic environment. A successful hit would validate aggressive growth forecasts and signal a sustained bull market. 该市场反映出对股市持续增长和有利宏观经济环境的强烈信心。若成功触及目标，将验证激进的增长预测并预示牛市持续。
Vol 24h: $2,936 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Tom Lee's S&P 500 8,000 target by year-end 2026 makes SPY $755 highly achievable. Tom Lee预测标普500在2026年底达到8000点，使SPY 755美元目标极易实现。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions (Iran) and potential "worrisome ramifications" could derail market momentum. 地缘政治紧张（伊朗）和潜在“令人担忧的后果”可能阻碍市场上涨势头。
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500
#16 · Score 298

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $312 Week of July 13 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $312 Week of July 13 2026?

38% -29.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $312 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $534 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 278

NVDA Rebound Hopes Surge 英伟达反弹预期大增

46% +27.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 13 2026?

NVDA's probability to hit $216 surged to 46% amidst a "rocky patch" for chip stocks. This increase was primarily driven by the market interpreting recent declines as a "once-in-a-decade buying opportunity" for AI stocks. 英伟达（NVDA）触及216美元的概率升至46%，尽管芯片股遭遇“坎坷”。此次上涨主要受市场将近期下跌解读为AI股票“十年一遇的买入机会”所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Motley Fool's 'Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity' for AI stocks.
  • Market viewing 'rocky patch' for chip stocks as temporary correction.
  • Belief NVDA's $1T market cap decline created oversold conditions.
  • 《The Motley Fool》提及AI股票“十年一遇的买入机会”。
  • 市场将芯片股“坎坷”视为短期调整。
  • 认为英伟达万亿市值蒸发造成超卖。
Nvidia's performance is a key indicator for the broader AI sector and tech market. This movement reflects investor confidence in AI's long-term growth despite short-term volatility. 英伟达的表现是AI行业和科技市场的关键指标。此次波动反映了投资者对AI长期增长的信心，尽管短期存在不确定性。
Vol 24h: $1,630 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite recent declines, investors see NVDA's dip as an oversold 'buying opportunity' for a rapid rebound towards $216. 尽管近期下跌，投资者视英伟达回调为超卖的“买入机会”，预期股价将迅速反弹至216美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 'rocky patch' for chip stocks and Nvidia's $1 trillion market cap decline indicate strong headwinds making $216 unlikely. 芯片股的“坎坷”和英伟达万亿市值蒸发预示着强劲阻力，使得触及216美元的可能性降低。
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500
#18 · Score 278

Fed Hike Odds Plunge on Soft Inflation 美联储加息概率因通胀疲软暴跌

7% -27.3%

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

The probability of a Fed rate hike by July 2026 plummeted from approximately 34.3% to 7% in the last 24 hours. This sharp decline was primarily driven by a softer-than-expected inflation reading and Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal stance on future rate adjustments. 截至2026年7月会议，美联储加息概率在过去24小时内从约34.3%暴跌至7%。此次急剧下降主要受低于预期的通胀数据以及美联储主席沃什对未来利率调整保持沉默的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Softer-than-expected inflation data
  • Fed Chair Warsh stayed mum on rates
  • Reduced pressure for Fed tightening
  • 通胀数据低于预期
  • 美联储主席沃什未表态
  • 美联储加息压力减轻
This shift signals market confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, potentially allowing the Fed to maintain current rates longer without stifling economic growth. It impacts borrowing costs and investor sentiment. 这一转变表明市场相信通胀压力正在缓解，可能使美联储在不抑制经济增长的情况下维持当前利率更长时间。它影响借贷成本和投资者情绪。
Vol 24h: $118,052 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Future inflation data could surprise to the upside, or strong economic growth may force the Fed to consider tightening. 未来通胀数据可能超预期上升，或经济强劲增长迫使美联储考虑加息。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued soft inflation and a stable labor market would allow the Fed to hold rates, further reducing hike expectations. 持续的通胀疲软和稳定的劳动力市场将使美联储维持利率不变，进一步降低加息预期。
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500
#19 · Score 272

AMZN Nears $244 Amid Global Market Plunge 亚马逊股价逼近244美元，全球市场恐慌

100% +27.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of AMZN hitting $244 by July 13, 2026, surged to 100% due to its current trading price of $248.13, just above the target. This movement is heavily influenced by a broader market decline anticipated on July 13, 2026, following Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 亚马逊股价在2026年7月13日当周触及244美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，主要原因是其当前股价为248.13美元，已非常接近目标价。此外，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，预计将导致道琼斯、标普500和纳斯达克指数全面下跌，进一步推动了这一预测。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AMZN current price at $248.13, near $244 target.
  • Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Anticipated broad market decline (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq).
  • 亚马逊当前股价248.13美元，接近目标。
  • 伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 道琼斯、标普500、纳斯达克指数预计下跌。
A significant geopolitical event like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz can trigger a global economic downturn, impacting major tech stocks like Amazon and potentially leading to widespread market instability. This highlights the vulnerability of even large companies to macro-level shocks. 霍尔木兹海峡关闭等重大地缘政治事件可能引发全球经济衰退，严重影响亚马逊等大型科技股，并可能导致市场普遍不稳定。这凸显了即使是大型公司也容易受到宏观冲击的影响。
Vol 24h: $534 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 AMZN's current price of $248.13 is extremely close to the target, and the impending global market decline due to the Hormuz closure makes a drop below $244 highly probable. 亚马逊当前股价248.13美元已非常接近244美元目标，加上霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发的市场暴跌，使其触及目标几乎确定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The geopolitical crisis might be resolved or less impactful than feared, allowing AMZN to maintain its price above $244 despite broader market pressures. 地缘政治危机可能得到缓解或影响小于预期，使亚马逊股价尽管面临市场压力仍能维持在244美元以上。
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500
#20 · Score 264

Bitcoin Slips, Range Probability Dips 比特币下滑，区间概率骤降

1% -25.9%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 15?

The probability for Bitcoin to be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 15 plummeted by 25.9% to 1% as Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 due to an "Asian-session leverage flush" and ongoing miner selling. This indicates market expectation of further price movement outside this narrow band. 比特币在亚洲盘“杠杆清洗”和矿工持续抛售下，跌破63,000美元，导致其在7月15日介于60,000至62,000美元区间的概率骤降25.9%至1%。这表明市场预期价格将进一步偏离此狭窄区间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin price slipped below $63,000.
  • Eric Trump's venture lost $600M amid downturn.
  • BitFuFu sold 184 BTC, adding selling pressure.
  • 比特币价格跌破63,000美元。
  • 埃里克·特朗普矿业损失6亿美元。
  • BitFuFu抛售184枚比特币。
This sustained downward pressure and miner capitulation indicate a challenging period for Bitcoin, potentially impacting broader crypto market stability and investor confidence. 这种持续的下行压力和矿工抛售表明比特币正经历艰难时期，可能影响更广泛的加密市场稳定和投资者信心。
Vol 24h: $18,481 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A quick rebound from the current dip could stabilize Bitcoin within the $60,000-$62,000 range by July 15. 当前下跌后若迅速反弹，比特币价格有望在7月15日前稳定在60,000-62,000美元区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued selling pressure from liquidations and miners will drive Bitcoin price significantly below $60,000. 杠杆清算和矿工的持续抛售将推动比特币价格远低于60,000美元。
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500
#21 · Score 234

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se

56% +23.0%

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $11,173 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 212

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b

39% -20.8%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $4,486 Polymarket ↗
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500
#23 · Score 198

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of July 13 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of July 13 2026?

36% -19.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of July 13 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $520 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 194

July Core CPI: 0.2% Odds Drop 7月核心CPI：0.2%概率骤降

44% -19.0%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?

The probability for July Core CPI MoM to be 0.2% dropped significantly by 19% to 44%. This decline was primarily driven by the "shockingly cool" June CPI report, which showed consumer prices rising less than expected. 7月核心CPI环比为0.2%的概率大幅下降19%至44%。这一下降主要受“出人意料的降温”的6月CPI报告驱动，该报告显示消费者价格涨幅低于预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • June CPI came in "shockingly cool" and "less than expected."
  • Falling energy prices eased overall consumer prices in June.
  • Reduced Fed rate-hike odds signal sustained disinflation.
  • 6月CPI数据“出人意料的降温”且“低于预期”。
  • 能源价格下跌缓解了6月整体消费者价格。
  • 美联储加息预期下降，预示持续通胀放缓。
This movement reflects shifting expectations for future inflation, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and broader economic outlook. 这一变动反映了市场对未来通胀预期的转变，可能影响美联储的政策决定和更广泛的经济前景。
Vol 24h: $6,257 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent sticky inflation in core services or a rebound in specific categories could still push July Core CPI MoM to 0.2%. 核心服务业的顽固通胀或特定类别反弹，仍可能使7月核心CPI环比达到0.2%。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger-than-expected disinflation from June suggests July Core CPI MoM could fall below 0.2%, making the target less likely. 6月超预期通胀放缓趋势表明，7月核心CPI环比可能低于0.2%，使该目标可能性降低。
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500
#25 · Score 179

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc

46% +17.5%

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $15,716 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 178

MSFT Target Probability Plunges on Valuation Concerns 微软目标价概率大跌

38% -17.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of MSFT hitting $397.50 by July 2026 dropped sharply by 17.5% to 38%. This significant decline likely reflects a broader re-evaluation of tech valuations amidst rising interest rate expectations. 微软股价在2026年7月达到397.50美元的概率在24小时内骤降17.5%至38%。此次大幅下跌可能反映了在利率预期上升背景下，市场对科技股估值的普遍重新评估。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rising US Treasury yields
  • Increased tech sector caution
  • Reassessment of AI valuation multiples
  • 美国国债收益率上升
  • 科技板块投资趋谨慎
  • AI估值倍数重新评估
This market movement indicates growing skepticism about the sustained high growth trajectory of major tech firms. It highlights the sensitivity of long-term price targets to macroeconomic shifts and valuation scrutiny. 这一市场动向表明，市场对大型科技公司持续高增长轨迹的怀疑日益加剧。它凸显了长期目标价对宏观经济变化和估值审查的敏感性。
Vol 24h: $742 Polymarket ↗
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained Azure growth and successful AI monetization will propel MSFT past $397.50. Azure持续增长和AI成功变现将推动微软突破397.50美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Economic slowdown or intensified AI competition could prevent MSFT from reaching $397.50. 经济放缓或AI竞争加剧可能阻碍微软达到397.50美元。
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500
#27 · Score 175

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

52% -17.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $156,639 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 160

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

37% -15.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $127,784 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 158

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of July 13 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of July 13 2026?

36% +15.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of July 13 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $825 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 149

Ethereum Up or Down on July 15? Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?

64% +14.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $20,814 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。