AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jun 28, 2026 12:01 UTC
#1 · Score 954

Vučić Resignation Imminent 武契奇辞职在即

97% +94.9%

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

The probability of Aleksandar Vučić being out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026, surged to 97% after he publicly announced his intention to resign within weeks. This declaration follows ongoing student-led protests demanding snap parliamentary elections. 亚历山大·武契奇总统将于2026年6月30日前卸任的概率飙升至97%，此前他公开宣布将在数周内辞职。此声明是在学生主导的抗议活动要求提前举行议会选举后作出的。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • President Vučić's public announcement to resign within weeks.
  • Pressure from widespread student-led anti-corruption protests.
  • Anticipation of early parliamentary elections after his departure.
  • 武契奇总统公开宣布将在数周内辞职。
  • 来自学生主导的反腐抗议活动的压力。
  • 预计他离任后将举行提前议会选举。
Vučić's potential departure could significantly alter Serbia's political landscape, potentially leading to a new government and shifting regional dynamics. This event highlights the power of public dissent in challenging populist leaders. 武契奇的潜在离任可能显著改变塞尔维亚的政治格局，可能导致新政府上台并影响地区动态。此事件凸显了公众异议挑战民粹主义领导人的力量。
Vol 24h: $111,003 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Vučić follows through on his explicit public commitment to resign as President within weeks, well before the June 30, 2026 deadline. 武契奇履行其公开承诺，在数周内辞去总统职务，远早于2026年6月30日的截止日期。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Vučić retracts his resignation statement or finds a mechanism to retain presidential power beyond June 30, 2026, despite his announcement. 武契奇撤回辞职声明，或设法在2026年6月30日之后保留总统权力。
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500
#2 · Score 892

Iran Strikes Shipping Confirmed 伊朗袭击船只已证实

100% +88.7%

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?

The probability surged to 100% as news confirmed Iran's successful targeting of shipping on June 27, specifically a "new Strait of Hormuz tanker attack." This aggression prompted immediate retaliatory strikes from the United States against targets in Iran. 随着新闻证实伊朗于6月27日成功袭击船只，特别是“霍尔木兹海峡新油轮袭击”，市场概率飙升至100%。此次侵略行为立即引发美国对伊朗目标的报复性打击。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • USA Today reported "new Strait of Hormuz tanker attack."
  • The Guardian cited US strikes over Iran's "continued aggression against shipping."
  • Reuters confirmed Iran's retaliatory strikes after US attacks.
  • 《今日美国》报道“霍尔木兹海峡新油轮袭击”。
  • 《卫报》引用美国因伊朗“持续侵略航运”而发动打击。
  • 路透社证实伊朗在美国袭击后进行报复。
This escalation significantly heightens tensions in the Middle East, potentially disrupting global oil supplies and increasing the risk of broader regional conflict. 此次升级显著加剧中东紧张局势，可能扰乱全球石油供应并增加区域冲突风险。
Vol 24h: $51,187 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Multiple credible news outlets confirmed Iran's direct involvement in targeting shipping on June 27, leading to US retaliation. 多家可靠新闻机构证实伊朗于6月27日直接参与袭击船只，导致美国进行报复。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Subsequent investigations or official statements would have disproven Iran's direct responsibility for any June 27 shipping attacks. 后续调查或官方声明将反驳伊朗对6月27日任何航运袭击的直接责任。
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500
#3 · Score 527

Lebanon-Israel Recognition Probability Surges 黎巴嫩承认以色列概率飙升

57% +52.1%

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

The probability of Lebanon recognizing Israel by June 30 surged to 57%, driven by the signing of a US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon. This agreement, mediated by the Trump administration, included a minor IDF withdrawal. 黎巴嫩承认以色列的概率飙升至57%，主要受美国斡旋的黎以框架协议签署的推动。该协议由特朗普政府促成，包括以色列国防军的小幅撤军。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US-brokered framework agreement signed
  • Trump congratulated Lebanon's Aoun
  • Israel agreed to minor IDF withdrawal
  • 美国斡旋的框架协议签署
  • 特朗普祝贺黎巴嫩奥恩总统
  • 以色列同意小幅撤军
This framework agreement could be a precursor to broader normalization in the Middle East, signifying a potential shift in long-standing hostilities. 该框架协议可能预示着中东地区更广泛的正常化，标志着长期敌对关系的潜在转变。
Vol 24h: $207,395 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The recently signed US-brokered framework agreement creates a strong diplomatic pathway towards eventual recognition. 刚签署的美国斡旋框架协议为最终承认创造了强有力的外交途径。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Hezbollah's disarmament, a reported requirement, presents a significant and potentially insurmountable obstacle to full recognition. 真主党解除武装是协议要求，这构成全面承认的重大障碍。
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500
#4 · Score 484

Lebanon-Israel Recognition Surges 黎以承认概率飙升

72% +48.0%

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

The probability for Lebanon recognizing Israel by December 31 surged to 72% after a +48.0% increase. This movement was primarily driven by Israel and Lebanon signing a US-mediated framework agreement on Friday, setting a roadmap for future peace. 黎巴嫩在12月31日前承认以色列的概率飙升至72%，24小时内上涨48.0%。核心驱动是以色列和黎巴嫩周五在美国斡旋下签署了框架协议，为未来和平奠定路线图。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Israel and Lebanon signed a US-mediated framework agreement.
  • The agreement establishes a roadmap for future peace.
  • US military will oversee the agreement's implementation.
  • 以色列与黎巴嫩签署美国斡旋框架协议。
  • 该协议为未来和平设定了路线图。
  • 美国军方将监督协议的执行情况。
This agreement marks a significant step towards de-escalation and potential normalization between two long-time adversaries, impacting regional stability and future diplomatic efforts. 该协议标志着两个长期敌对国家之间走向缓和与潜在正常化的重要一步，影响地区稳定和未来的外交努力。
Vol 24h: $16,779 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The recently signed US-mediated framework agreement provides a clear roadmap for eventual full diplomatic recognition. 刚签署的美国斡旋框架协议为最终全面外交承认提供了明确路线图。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Deep-seated historical animosity and internal political opposition in Lebanon could still derail full recognition. 黎巴嫩根深蒂固的历史敌意和内部政治反对仍可能阻碍全面承认。
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500
#5 · Score 469

Iran Tensions Boost Rial Volatility 伊朗局势推高里亚尔波动

58% +46.6%

Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?

The probability of USD being between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30 surged by 46.6% to 58%. This increase is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions following recent US strikes in Iran. 美元兑伊朗里亚尔在6月30日介于170万至180万之间的可能性飙升46.6%至58%。这主要受美国对伊朗的最新打击行动引发的地缘政治紧张局势升级所驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US strikes in Iran increase geopolitical instability
  • Renewed Gulf risk pressures Iranian Rial depreciation
  • Market skepticism on Iran Deal's stabilizing effect
  • 美国打击伊朗加剧地缘政治不稳定
  • 海湾地区风险重燃，里亚尔承压贬值
  • 市场对伊朗协议稳定作用存疑
This market reflects the immediate economic impact of geopolitical events on Iran's currency, influencing trade, investment, and the daily lives of Iranians. 该市场反映了地缘政治事件对伊朗货币的直接经济影响，从而影响贸易、投资及伊朗民众的日常生活。
Vol 24h: $1,429 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued US-Iran tensions and regional instability will further weaken the Rial, pushing USD/IRR into the 1.7M-1.8M range. 美伊持续紧张局势和地区不稳定将进一步削弱里亚尔，推动美元/里亚尔进入目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A rapid de-escalation of tensions or a stronger-than-expected Iran Deal could strengthen the Rial, moving USD/IRR outside the range. 紧张局势迅速降级或伊朗协议产生超预期积极影响，可能使里亚尔走强，脱离目标区间。
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500
#6 · Score 443

Bending Spoons IPO Valuation Concerns Rise Bending Spoons IPO估值担忧加剧

53% +44.0%

Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?

The probability of Bending Spoons' market cap being less than $16B on IPO day surged by 44% to 53%. This increase was primarily driven by a skeptical Financial Times report questioning the company's financial structure. Bending Spoons上市首日市值低于160亿美元的概率飙升44%至53%。这一增长主要受《金融时报》一篇质疑该公司财务结构的怀疑性报道驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • FT questions Bending Spoons' 'financial magic trick'.
  • Increased scrutiny on Bending Spoons' valuation methods.
  • General market volatility fosters IPO caution.
  • 《金融时报》质疑Bending Spoons的“财务魔术”。
  • 投资者对Bending Spoons估值方法审查加强。
  • 市场波动性加剧，引发IPO谨慎情绪。
This movement reflects growing investor scrutiny over Bending Spoons' financial health and valuation transparency ahead of its public debut. It could influence investor appetite for other upcoming tech IPOs. 这一变化反映出投资者对Bending Spoons上市前财务状况和估值透明度的审查日益严格。它可能影响对其他即将上市科技公司的投资兴趣。
Vol 24h: $2,673 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The Financial Times' 'odd financial magic trick' report suggests underlying valuation issues, making a sub-$16B market cap more likely. 《金融时报》的“奇特财务魔术”报道暗示潜在估值问题，使市值低于160亿美元的可能性增加。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong overall IPO market activity, exemplified by SpaceX's $86B raise, could still boost Bending Spoons' valuation above $16B. SpaceX 860亿美元融资等强劲IPO市场活动，仍可能推动Bending Spoons市值超过160亿美元。
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500
#7 · Score 426

Ethereum Up Probability Plunges Amid Crypto Downturn 以太坊上涨概率暴跌，加密市场承压

7% -42.1%

Ethereum Up or Down on June 28?

The probability of Ethereum being up on June 28 plummeted by 42.1% to 7%. This sharp decline is primarily driven by Bitcoin testing $59,000 and confirming broader "risk-off pressure" across the crypto market. 以太坊在6月28日上涨的概率暴跌42.1%至7%。这主要受比特币测试59,000美元以及加密市场普遍存在的“避险压力”影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin tests $59,000 support level
  • Stablecoin dominance signals risk-off pressure
  • LINK price prediction shows bearish sentiment
  • 比特币测试59,000美元支撑位
  • 稳定币主导地位确认避险情绪
  • LINK价格预测显示看跌情绪
This movement reflects a significant shift in investor confidence, indicating a widespread move away from volatile crypto assets. It suggests a potential for further downside across the digital asset ecosystem. 这一变化反映了投资者信心的显著转变，表明资金正从波动性加密资产中撤离。这预示着数字资产生态系统可能面临进一步下行风险。
Vol 24h: $64,027 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A strong bounce in Bitcoin above $60,000 could quickly reverse sentiment, pulling Ethereum higher by June 28. 比特币若能强劲反弹突破60,000美元，将迅速扭转市场情绪，带动以太坊在6月28日前走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued Bitcoin weakness below $59,000, fueled by sustained risk-off pressure, will likely drag Ethereum further down. 比特币持续弱于59,000美元，加上避险压力不减，将很可能拖累以太坊进一步下跌。
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500
#8 · Score 423

Tech Rebound Lifts GOOGL Outlook 科技股反弹提振谷歌前景

92% +42.0%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 29 above $320?

The probability of Google (GOOGL) finishing above $320 by June 29 surged to 92% following a broad rebound in AI and tech stocks. Recent headlines indicate an easing of the tech sell-off and AI stocks pulling Wall Street higher. 谷歌(GOOGL)在6月29日前收盘价高于320美元的概率飙升至92%，主要受人工智能和科技股普遍反弹推动。最新消息显示，科技股抛售有所缓解，人工智能股票带动华尔街走高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AI stocks rebound, lifting Wall Street.
  • Tech sector sell-off eases.
  • Nasdaq shows signs of recovery.
  • 人工智能股反弹，提振华尔街。
  • 科技板块抛售压力减轻。
  • 纳斯达克指数出现复苏迹象。
This movement reflects renewed investor confidence in the technology sector, particularly in AI-driven companies like Google, after recent market volatility. It signals a potential shift in market sentiment towards growth stocks. 这一走势反映了投资者对科技行业的信心重燃，尤其是在经历近期市场波动后，对谷歌等人工智能驱动型公司的信心增强。这预示着市场情绪可能转向成长型股票。
Vol 24h: $547 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strength in AI-related investments and a broader tech market recovery will push GOOGL above $320. 人工智能相关投资持续强劲，加上科技市场全面复苏，将推动谷歌股价突破320美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Renewed tech sell-offs or broader market weakness could quickly reverse GOOGL's recent gains. 科技股再次抛售或大盘走弱，可能迅速逆转谷歌近期涨幅。
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500
#9 · Score 385

Bitcoin Crash Fears Mount 比特币崩盘担忧加剧

12% -38.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on June 28 plummeted by 38% to 12% as BTC broke key support levels. A broad crypto selloff, linked to tumbling tech stocks and confirmed by stablecoin dominance, fueled extreme bearish sentiment. 比特币在跌破关键支撑位后，其在6月28日上涨的概率暴跌38%至12%。广泛的加密货币抛售，与科技股下跌和稳定币主导地位确认的避险情绪相关，加剧了极度看跌情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BTC broke $59,000 and $58,000 support
  • Broad crypto selloff, tech stocks tumble
  • Forbes warns of 'Massive Price Crash'
  • Stablecoin dominance confirms risk-off
  • 比特币跌破5.9万和5.8万美元支撑
  • 加密货币普跌，科技股同步下挫
  • 福布斯警告“大规模价格崩盘”
  • 稳定币主导确认避险情绪
This sharp drop reflects significant investor fear and a potential shift in market structure, impacting broader crypto adoption and financial stability. 此次急剧下跌反映了投资者巨大的恐慌情绪和市场结构潜在变化，影响更广泛的加密货币采用和金融稳定。
Vol 24h: $161,648 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could rebound strongly if it holds current support levels and macro risk-on sentiment returns. 若比特币守住当前支撑位且宏观风险偏好回归，价格可能强劲反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued breakdown below $58,000 and persistent risk-off sentiment will drive further price declines. 持续跌破5.8万美元和避险情绪不减将进一步推动价格下跌。
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500
#10 · Score 258

Tech Sell-Off Eases, GOOGL Outlook Improves 科技抛售缓解，GOOGL前景改善

10% -25.5%

Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3?

The probability of GOOGL closing below $320 dropped 25.5% to 10% as the broader tech sell-off eased, with stocks turning higher according to Investopedia. This indicates reduced downside risk for major tech companies. GOOGL收盘价低于320美元的概率在24小时内下降25.5%至10%，主要驱动是科技股抛售压力缓解，Investopedia报道称股市转涨。这表明主要科技公司的下行风险降低。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Easing of broader tech sector sell-off.
  • Stocks turning higher, reducing market downside.
  • Reduced immediate pressure on major tech stocks.
  • 科技板块抛售压力缓解。
  • 股市转涨，降低市场下行风险。
  • 主要科技股面临的即时压力减轻。
This market reflects investor confidence in the near-term stability of major tech stocks like Google, a bellwether for broader market health. 该市场反映了投资者对谷歌等主要科技股近期稳定性的信心，是衡量整体市场健康状况的风向标。
Vol 24h: $560 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Renewed tech sector selling pressure or unexpected negative news could push GOOGL below $320 by week's end. 科技抛售重现或负面消息，或使GOOGL跌破320美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued tech recovery and overall market stability will likely keep GOOGL above the $320 threshold. 科技股持续复苏和市场稳定，将使GOOGL维持在320美元以上。
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500
#11 · Score 235

ITG IPO Confidence Surges ITG上市信心飙升

3% -23.2%

Will ITG not IPO before September 2026?

The market's confidence in ITG IPOing before September 2026 has surged, with the probability of it *not* IPOing dropping from 26.2% to 3%. This shift is driven by positive signals for private tech liquidity events and a potential re-evaluation of non-AI tech IPOs amidst OpenAI's delays. 市场对ITG在2026年9月前上市的信心大幅提升，其不上市的概率从26.2%降至3%。这一转变主要受私人科技公司流动性事件的积极信号以及OpenAI推迟上市背景下对非AI科技公司IPO的重新评估驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX Nasdaq 100 inclusion signals strong market for private tech IPOs.
  • OpenAI's reported 2027 IPO delay clears investor focus for other tech firms.
  • Cooling generative AI sentiment shifts investor interest to non-AI tech.
  • SpaceX纳入纳斯达克100指数，预示私人科技IPO市场强劲。
  • OpenAI推迟至2027年上市，为其他科技公司IPO腾出空间。
  • 生成式AI热度降温，投资者转向非AI科技领域。
This movement reflects a dynamic private market environment, where investor appetite and sector-specific trends dictate IPO timings and valuations for major tech players. 这一变化反映了动态的私募市场环境，投资者偏好和特定行业趋势决定着主要科技公司的IPO时机和估值。
Vol 24h: $2,382 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A broader tech market downturn or specific ITG challenges could still delay its IPO past 2026. 更广泛的科技市场低迷或ITG自身挑战仍可能使其IPO推迟至2026年后。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Favorable market conditions and ITG's strong performance will accelerate its IPO before 2026. 有利的市场条件和ITG的充分准备将确保其在2026年前完成IPO。
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500
#12 · Score 185

US-Iran Meeting Probability Plunges 美伊会谈概率骤降

8% -18.0%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

The probability of the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring in Qatar by September 30, 2026, dropped significantly to 8% after reports confirmed an interim peace agreement has already been brokered, diminishing the urgency for new high-level talks. 鉴于有报道称美伊已达成临时和平协议，降低了举行新的高级别会谈的紧迫性，因此在2026年9月30日前于卡塔尔举行下一次美伊外交会议的概率大幅降至8%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Interim US-Iran peace agreement already brokered.
  • US Vice President JD Vance's hardline stance on Iran deal.
  • Persistent challenges and tensions despite existing agreement.
  • 美伊已达成临时和平协议。
  • 美国副总统JD Vance对伊朗协议持强硬立场。
  • 现有协议下挑战与紧张局势持续。
The likelihood of future high-level US-Iran diplomatic engagement impacts regional stability and the potential for de-escalation in the Middle East. 美伊未来高级别外交接触的可能性影响地区稳定及中东局势降级潜力。
Vol 24h: $36,805 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The Jerusalem Post reported Doha (Qatar) will host the "next round of US-Iran talks on frozen funds," indicating ongoing engagement. 《耶路撒冷邮报》报道多哈将主持下一轮美伊冻结资金谈判，表明持续接触。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An interim US-Iran agreement has already been reached, reducing the immediate need for a new high-level diplomatic meeting. 美伊已达成临时协议，降低了举行新的高级别外交会议的即时必要性。
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500
#13 · Score 165

Hormuz Normalization Odds Plunge 霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常概率骤降

12% -16.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15 has dropped to 12%, a 16% decrease in 24 hours. This significant decline is primarily driven by renewed strikes in the Persian Gulf and escalating tensions following Iranian counter attacks. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月15日前恢复正常的概率已降至12%，24小时内下降了16%。此次显著下跌主要受波斯湾地区“重新发动袭击”以及“伊朗反击”后紧张局势升级的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Renewed strikes threaten shipping recovery (NYT).
  • Iranian counter attacks draw US allies' condemnation (NY Post).
  • Opening for ships in Hormuz 'may be closing' (CNN).
  • Fragile confidence despite temporary shipping rebound (CNBC).
  • 波斯湾“重新发动袭击”威胁航运恢复 (纽约时报)。
  • “伊朗反击”引美国盟友谴责 (纽约邮报)。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡航运“窗口可能正在关闭” (CNN)。
  • 尽管航运暂时反弹但信心脆弱 (CNBC)。
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments. Continued disruption impacts global energy prices and supply chains, with significant economic and geopolitical consequences. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉。持续的航运中断将影响全球能源价格和供应链，带来重大的经济和地缘政治影响。
Vol 24h: $246,764 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A swift de-escalation of regional tensions and a new diplomatic agreement could quickly restore shipping confidence. 地区紧张局势迅速降级并达成新的外交协议，可迅速恢复航运信心。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Further military actions or a prolonged blockade by Iran would prevent any return to normal traffic. 进一步的军事行动或伊朗长期封锁将阻止交通恢复正常。
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500
#14 · Score 135

Hormuz Normalization Odds Plummet 霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常概率骤降

6% -13.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 7 has dropped to 6% from a previous high of 31.5%, driven by renewed strikes and Iranian counter-attacks. This significant 13.0% decline in 24 hours reflects escalating tensions and a severe setback to earlier hopes of recovery. 霍尔木兹海峡交通在7月7日前恢复正常的概率已降至6%，此前曾高达31.5%，主要受新一轮袭击和伊朗反击事件驱动。24小时内13.0%的显著跌幅反映出紧张局势升级，对早前恢复希望造成严重打击。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Renewed strikes threaten shipping recovery in Persian Gulf
  • Iranian counter attacks draw condemnation, deterring traffic
  • Fragile confidence in security despite earlier U.S.-Iran deal
  • 波斯湾新一轮袭击威胁航运复苏
  • 伊朗反击引谴责，阻碍航运
  • 尽管有美伊协议，安全信心仍脆弱
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, and its disruption can lead to significant energy price volatility and broader economic instability. Continued insecurity impacts global supply chains and international relations. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉，其中断可能导致能源价格剧烈波动和更广泛的经济不稳定。持续的不安全局势影响全球供应链和国际关系。
Vol 24h: $105,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new, effective de-escalation agreement between major powers could swiftly restore confidence and traffic. 主要大国达成新的有效降级协议，可迅速恢复信心和航运。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued attacks and lack of effective security measures will prevent traffic normalization by July 7. 持续袭击和缺乏有效安全措施将阻止交通在7月7日前恢复正常。
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500
#15 · Score 135

Global Sell-Off Hits Ornn H200 Probability 全球抛售冲击Ornn H200指数

12% -13.1%

Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?

The probability of the Ornn H200 Index landing between $5.00 and $6.00 by June 30, 2026, plunged 13.1% to 12% following a widespread global market correction. Traders are selling to lock in profits after recent AI-driven rallies, as seen in headlines like "Wall Street follows global markets lower" and "Asian shares plunge." Ornn H200指数在2026年6月30日介于5.00美元至6.00美元之间的可能性骤降13.1%至12%，主要受全球市场普遍回调影响。交易员在近期AI驱动的上涨后获利了结，正如“华尔街跟随全球市场走低”和“亚洲股市暴跌”等报道所示。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Global market profit-taking post-AI rallies
  • Wall Street and Asian shares plunge
  • Grains market starts day in the red
  • 全球市场AI涨势后获利了结
  • 华尔街及亚洲股市普遍下跌
  • 谷物市场开盘走低
A broad market correction could signal a shift in investor sentiment, potentially impacting future economic growth and corporate earnings across various sectors. This widespread selling pressure suggests investors are de-risking. 广泛的市场回调可能预示投资者情绪转变，潜在影响未来经济增长和各行业的企业盈利。这种普遍的抛售压力表明投资者正在规避风险。
Vol 24h: $12,112 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings, particularly in AI-related sectors, could rebound, pushing the Ornn H200 back into the target range. 强劲的企业盈利，尤其AI相关领域，可能反弹，推动Ornn H200重回目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued profit-taking and broader economic slowdowns could drive the Ornn H200 Index significantly below the $5.00 threshold. 持续的获利了结和经济放缓可能使Ornn H200指数远低于5.00美元。
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500
#16 · Score 133

CopperTech IPO Range Probability Drops CopperTech IPO估值区间概率下降

16% -13.0%

Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market close on IPO day?

The probability of CopperTech Metals' market cap being between $3B and $3.6B on IPO day dropped to 16% (-13.0%) as recent IPOs provided contrasting benchmarks and intensified scrutiny. SpaceX's record $86B IPO and silver miner Sinda's $213-$323M raise likely pushed valuation expectations outside this specific range. CopperTech Metals在IPO当日市值介于30亿至36亿美元的概率降至16%（-13.0%），原因是近期IPO提供了对比基准并加剧了市场审查。SpaceX创纪录的860亿美元IPO以及白银矿商Sinda的2.13亿至3.23亿美元融资，可能将估值预期推离该特定区间。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX's $86B IPO success polarized expectations for other IPOs.
  • Sinda's $213-$323M IPO set a more modest benchmark for metals companies.
  • Ongoing CopperTech IPO analysis refined, but diversified, valuation estimates.
  • SpaceX 860亿美元IPO的成功使市场对其他IPO预期两极分化。
  • Sinda 2.13亿至3.23亿美元的IPO为金属公司设定了更保守的基准。
  • 持续的CopperTech IPO分析导致估值预测更精确但多元化。
This movement reflects shifting investor sentiment and valuation benchmarks in a dynamic IPO market, impacting future investment strategies for new listings. 这一变化反映了动态IPO市场中投资者情绪和估值基准的转变，影响着新上市公司的未来投资策略。
Vol 24h: $1,013 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong investor demand for CopperTech's specific assets or positive analyst reports could solidify its valuation within the $3B-$3.6B range. 对CopperTech特定资产的强劲投资者需求或积极的分析师报告可能使其估值稳定在30亿至36亿美元区间内。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 CopperTech's market cap could fall below $3B if overshadowed by mega-IPOs, or exceed $3.6B if its prospects are deemed exceptional. 若被大型IPO盖过风头，CopperTech市值可能跌破30亿美元；若前景异常出色，则可能远超36亿美元。
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500
#17 · Score 129

OpenAI Delays Boost Anthropic IPO Lead OpenAI推迟，Anthropic上市领先

90% +12.5%

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

The probability of Anthropic IPOing first surged to 90% due to multiple reports of OpenAI delaying its public debut, with some sources citing a 2027 target. This was reinforced by Anthropic's Mythos 5 receiving Washington clearance. Anthropic率先IPO的概率升至90%，主要因多方报道OpenAI推迟上市，部分消息称可能延至2027年。同时，Anthropic的Mythos 5获华盛顿批准。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • OpenAI reportedly delaying IPO to 2027 (Forbes).
  • OpenAI lacks pre-IPO investor meetings (CNBC).
  • Anthropic's Mythos 5 cleared by Washington.
  • OpenAI据报推迟IPO至2027年（福布斯）。
  • OpenAI未举行IPO前投资者会议（CNBC）。
  • Anthropic的Mythos 5获华盛顿批准。
The timing of these IPOs will significantly impact the competitive landscape and investor access to leading AI companies, reflecting sector maturity. 这些IPO时机将深刻影响AI竞争格局及投资者参与，反映AI行业成熟度。
Vol 24h: $6,417 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 OpenAI's consistent IPO delays, some extending to 2027, strongly position Anthropic for an earlier public debut. OpenAI屡次推迟IPO，部分延至2027年，使Anthropic更可能率先上市。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Anthropic could face unexpected hurdles, or OpenAI might accelerate its IPO if market conditions improve rapidly. Anthropic或遇意外障碍，或OpenAI若市场好转将加速IPO计划。
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500
#18 · Score 125

Hormuz Transit Drops Amid Iran Tensions 霍尔木兹海峡运输量因伊朗紧张局势下降

24% -12.0%

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

The probability of 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 2026 dropped by 12% to 24%, primarily driven by escalating security risks and Iranian actions. Iran's IRGC warned against unapproved routes and struck a vessel, leading to paused escort operations and Korean ships leaving the Strait. 到2026年6月，霍尔木兹海峡每日60艘船只通行的可能性下降12%至24%，主要原因是安全风险升级和伊朗的行动。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告船只勿使用未经批准的航线，并袭击了一艘船只，导致护航行动暂停，韩国船只撤离海峡。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran's IRGC warns against new routes.
  • Iran strikes vessel, pausing escorts.
  • Korean ships leave Strait of Hormuz.
  • Reports of shipping 'opening' closing.
  • 伊朗革命卫队警告新航线。
  • 伊朗袭击船只，护航暂停。
  • 韩国船只撤离霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 航运“窗口期”可能关闭。
Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint, significantly impacts global energy supplies and trade, potentially leading to higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions. 霍尔木兹海峡作为全球关键咽喉要道，航运量减少将严重影响全球能源供应和贸易，可能导致油价上涨和供应链中断。
Vol 24h: $129,002 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Geopolitical tensions de-escalate, leading to renewed security assurances and increased shipping confidence, pushing transit numbers higher. 地缘政治紧张局势缓和，安全保障恢复，航运信心增强，推动通行量上升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued regional instability and Iranian aggression further deter shipping, making high daily transit volumes highly improbable. 地区持续不稳定和伊朗的侵略行为进一步阻碍航运，使得高日通行量极不可能。
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500
#19 · Score 119

Mahmood's Chancellor Hopes Plummet 马哈茂德财相前景骤降

11% -11.5%

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Shabana Mahmood's probability of becoming Chancellor in 2026 dropped 11.5% to 11%, driven by calls for her removal as Home Secretary and a public row with PM Keir Starmer. Alf Dubs specifically criticized her "performative cruelty" asylum plans. 沙巴纳·马哈茂德在2026年成为财政大臣的概率下降11.5%至11%，主要原因是要求她辞去内政大臣职务的呼声以及与首相基尔·斯塔默的公开争执。阿尔夫·杜布斯特别批评了她“表演性残酷”的庇护计划。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Calls for her removal as Home Secretary by Alf Dubs.
  • Public "row" with PM Keir Starmer over a minister's future.
  • Criticism of her "performative cruelty" asylum plans.
  • Uncertainty from Andy Burnham's potential rise.
  • 阿尔夫·杜布斯呼吁解除其内政大臣职务。
  • 与首相基尔·斯塔默就部长未来公开争执。
  • 其庇护计划被批“表演性残酷”。
  • 安迪·伯纳姆潜在崛起带来不确定性。
This reflects significant internal Labour Party tensions and potential instability within the current government's senior ranks, impacting future leadership roles. 这反映了工党内部的重大紧张局势和政府高层潜在的不稳定，影响未来的领导职位。
Vol 24h: $10,421 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Successfully resolving the asylum crisis and mending ties with Starmer could lead to a strategic promotion to Chancellor. 成功解决庇护危机并改善与斯塔默的关系，可能促成战略性晋升为财政大臣。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The ongoing public conflict with PM Starmer and calls for her removal make her promotion to Chancellor highly improbable. 与斯塔默的持续公开冲突和被要求辞职，使其晋升财政大臣的可能性极低。
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500
#20 · Score 100

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

37% -9.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $289,168 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 99

Meta Legal Woes & AI Concerns Drive Downside Meta法律困境与AI担忧推低股价

13% +9.7%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $460 in July?

The probability of Meta hitting a $460 low in July increased by 9.7% to 13%, driven by escalating legal challenges and broader tech sector AI spending concerns. Meta failed to dismiss BIPA voiceprint privacy claims and faces a new executive lawsuit, while Microsoft's stock hit a one-year low over AI spending. Meta在7月触及460美元低点的可能性上升9.7%至13%，主要受法律挑战加剧和科技行业AI支出担忧驱动。Meta未能驳回BIPA声纹隐私索赔，并面临前高管诉讼，同时微软因AI支出担忧股价跌至一年低点。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta fails to dismiss BIPA voiceprint privacy claims.
  • Former executive sues Meta over memoir suppression.
  • Microsoft's AI spending concerns hit tech sector.
  • Meta未能驳回BIPA隐私索赔。
  • 前高管起诉Meta压制回忆录。
  • 微软AI支出担忧影响科技股。
These developments highlight increasing legal and reputational risks for Meta, potentially impacting investor confidence and future growth prospects. Broader AI spending concerns could signal a sector-wide re-evaluation of tech valuations. 这些进展凸显Meta日益增长的法律和声誉风险，可能影响投资者信心和未来增长前景。更广泛的AI支出担忧可能预示着科技行业估值的全面重新评估。
Vol 24h: $862 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite legal challenges, Meta's strong ad revenue and ongoing AI innovation could prevent a significant price drop to $460. 尽管面临法律挑战，Meta强劲的广告收入和持续的AI创新或能阻止股价跌至460美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Mounting legal costs, reputational damage, and sector-wide AI spending fears could push Meta's stock to $460 in July. 不断增加的法律成本、声誉损害及行业AI支出担忧可能在7月将Meta股价推至460美元。
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500
#22 · Score 94

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O

44% -9.0%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $18,272 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 93

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

12% -9.0%

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,083 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 84

Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

66% +8.0%

Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $25,084 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 78

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July? Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July?

42% -7.5%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $650 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 73

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap

56% +7.0%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

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Vol 24h: $517 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 65

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

81% -6.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $51,361 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 64

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

18% -6.0%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $20,623 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 64

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

10% -6.0%

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,681 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 63

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin

80% +6.0%

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $763 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 23

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

18% -2.0%

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,422 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 21

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?

0% -1.8%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,569 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#33 · Score 13

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin

95% -0.9%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,274 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。