AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 04, 2026 06:49 UTC
#1 · Score 504

White House Boosts Bitcoin Outlook 白宫提振比特币前景

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Bitcoin's 'Up' probability surged 50% to 100%, driven by a Forbes report citing White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt on an 'imminent May Bitcoin price game-changer.' This suggests strong institutional support and potential regulatory clarity. 比特币“上涨”概率飙升50%至100%，主要受福布斯报道驱动，该报道引用白宫加密顾问Patrick Witt关于“5月比特币价格即将迎来巨变”的言论。这预示着强大的机构支持和潜在的监管明朗化。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • White House adviser Patrick Witt confirms 'imminent' Bitcoin game-changer.
  • Forbes report signals potential $6.2 trillion Bitcoin price earthquake.
  • Bitcoin holds strong near $78k despite broader market events.
  • 白宫顾问Patrick Witt确认比特币“即将”迎来巨变。
  • 福布斯报道暗示潜在的6.2万亿美元比特币价格震荡。
  • 尽管市场事件频发，比特币仍稳定在7.8万美元附近。
This indicates growing government acknowledgment and potential policy shifts that could significantly impact Bitcoin's mainstream adoption and valuation. 这表明政府对比特币的认可度不断提高，以及可能影响其主流采用和估值的潜在政策转变。
Vol 24h: $52,221 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt's confirmation of an 'imminent May Bitcoin price game-changer' strongly signals upward momentum. 白宫加密顾问Patrick Witt确认“5月比特币价格即将迎来巨变”，强烈预示上涨势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Recent 'record hacks' and a '$500m loss at American Bitcoin' could introduce market uncertainty and selling pressure. 近期“创纪录的黑客攻击”和“美国比特币公司5亿美元损失”可能带来市场不确定性。
Loading…
500
#2 · Score 473

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4? Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?

74% +47.0%

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $940 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#3 · Score 404

Ethereum Up or Down on May 4? Ethereum Up or Down on May 4?

90% +40.0%

Ethereum Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $30,221 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#4 · Score 385

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?

88% +38.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $125,125 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#5 · Score 328

Oil Hits $100: Hormuz Disruption Drives Forecast 油价触及100美元：霍尔木兹中断推高预测

100% +32.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of May 4 2026?

WTI's probability of hitting $100 by May 2026 surged to 100% after Barclays lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $100, citing prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and current WTI prices above $100 reinforce this outlook. WTI原油在2026年5月前触及100美元的概率飙升至100%，主要因巴克莱银行将2026年布伦特原油预测上调至100美元，理由是霍尔木兹海峡长期中断。持续的地缘政治紧张局势和当前WTI油价高于100美元进一步巩固了这一预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Barclays lifts 2026 Brent forecast to $100.
  • Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
  • Ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts.
  • 巴克莱上调2026年布伦特原油预测至100美元。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡长期中断。
  • 中东地区地缘政治冲突持续。
Sustained high oil prices could fuel global inflation, impact energy-dependent economies, and signal persistent geopolitical instability. 持续高油价可能加剧全球通胀，影响依赖能源的经济体，并预示地缘政治持续不稳定。
Vol 24h: $1,305 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating Middle East conflicts and persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions will keep global oil supply tight, pushing WTI prices above $100. 中东冲突升级及霍尔木兹海峡持续中断将导致全球原油供应紧张，推动WTI油价突破100美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a significant boost in non-OPEC supply could prevent WTI from consistently hitting $100. 地缘政治紧张局势迅速缓解或非欧佩克供应大幅增加，可能阻止WTI油价持续触及100美元。
Loading…
500
#6 · Score 297

Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem

97% +29.3%

Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,519 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#7 · Score 224

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5? Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5?

12% -22.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $9,279 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#8 · Score 224

Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag

2% -22.1%

Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,227 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#9 · Score 162

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

30% -15.9%

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,166 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#10 · Score 159

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

0% -15.4%

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $73,743 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#11 · Score 139

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?

45% -13.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $21,543 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#12 · Score 134

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?

64% +13.0%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $30,905 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#13 · Score 130

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET

62% +12.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $73,064 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#14 · Score 119

Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le

1% -11.6%

Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,361 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#15 · Score 116

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?

0% -11.1%

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $99,680 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#16 · Score 114

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?

61% +11.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,035 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#17 · Score 113

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 4? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 4?

58% +11.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $505 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#18 · Score 95

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

12% -9.0%

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $53,791 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#19 · Score 85

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?

64% +8.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $39,486 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#20 · Score 84

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

22% +8.0%

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $10,403 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#21 · Score 82

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

0% -7.7%

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $46,037 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#22 · Score 78

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May?

39% -7.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,717 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#23 · Score 74

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?

60% -7.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $7,210 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#24 · Score 73

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?

0% -6.9%

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $32,978 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#25 · Score 69

Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season

5% -6.6%

Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $671 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#26 · Score 67

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?

5% -6.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $566 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 65

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?

4% -6.2%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,099 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 64

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

18% +6.0%

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $16,648 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 63

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the

6% -6.0%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,699 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 59

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

70% -5.5%

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $28,014 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 39

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?

5% +3.5%

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,231 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。