AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 12, 2026 17:55 UTC
#1 · Score 707

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of August 10 20 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of August 10 20

100% +70.5%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $827 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#2 · Score 638

Meta's $145B Muse Bet Spooks Market Meta千亿投资引市场担忧

88% +63.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of META hitting $580 by August 2026 surged to 88% after Meta revealed a massive $145 billion "Muse" investment trial and maintained a high full-year expense outlook. This significant capital allocation, coupled with uncertain returns, fueled investor concerns about future profitability. Meta宣布将进行一项高达1450亿美元的“Muse”项目投资，并维持高额全年支出展望后，市场预测其股价在2026年8月前触及580美元低点的可能性飙升至88%。这项巨额资本投入及其不确定回报引发了投资者对未来盈利能力的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • $145 billion "Muse" investment trial
  • High full-year expense outlook ($165B-$169B)
  • Shares losing momentum post-announcement
  • 1450亿美元“Muse”项目投资
  • 高额全年支出展望不变
  • 公告后股价失去上涨动能
Meta's aggressive AI investments are critical for future growth but pose substantial short-to-medium term financial risks, potentially impacting its stock valuation and market leadership. Meta在AI领域的激进投资对其未来增长至关重要，但也带来了巨大的中短期财务风险，可能影响其股价估值和市场地位。
Vol 24h: $2,482 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 "Muse" investment could yield transformative AI products, driving long-term revenue growth and justifying current spending. “Muse”投资若成功，将带来颠覆性AI产品，驱动长期营收增长。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Massive "Muse" investment fails to deliver returns, severely eroding Meta's profitability and free cash flow for years. 巨额“Muse”投资若失败，将严重侵蚀Meta盈利和现金流。
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500
#3 · Score 499

Bitcoin Up: CPI Optimism Surges 比特币上涨：CPI乐观情绪高涨

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 12PM ET

The prediction market for Bitcoin being up by August 12, 12PM ET has reached 100%, driven by strong anticipation of favorable July CPI figures. Market participants expect these figures to propel BTC towards $70,000. 比特币在8月12日中午12点（美国东部时间）上涨的预测市场已达100%，主要受市场对7月CPI数据利好预期的强烈推动。市场参与者预计这些数据将推动比特币价格升向70,000美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipation of positive July CPI data release.
  • Market expects BTC move towards $70,000 target.
  • Bitcoin's recent slight upward trend (+0.47% in month).
  • 市场预期7月CPI数据利好。
  • 市场预计比特币将升向70,000美元。
  • 比特币近期呈现小幅上涨趋势。
This market reflects high confidence in a bullish reaction to upcoming inflation data, potentially signaling broader crypto market direction. 该市场反映了对即将公布的通胀数据将引发看涨反应的高度信心，可能预示更广泛的加密市场走向。
Vol 24h: $19,183 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong market conviction that July CPI data will be favorable, driving Bitcoin price significantly higher. 市场坚信7月CPI数据将利好，推动比特币价格显著上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A 'hot' July CPI print could trigger a sharp risk-off sell-off, invalidating current bullish expectations. 若7月CPI数据过热，可能引发剧烈避险抛售，推翻当前看涨预期。
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500
#4 · Score 497

MSFT Down Expected by Aug 12 微软8月12日料下跌

1% -49.2%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 12?

The probability for Microsoft (MSFT) to close up on August 12th plummeted to 1%, reflecting strong market expectation for a decline. This shift is driven by concerns over short-term timing, current slight negative trading, and relative underperformance against the S&P 500. 微软(MSFT)在8月12日收盘上涨的概率骤降至1%，反映市场强烈预期其将下跌。这一变化主要受短期时机问题、当前小幅下跌以及相对标普500表现不佳等因素驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 24/7 Wall St. notes "timing" issues for short-term upside.
  • MSFT currently "Trading Down 0.4%".
  • Brian Sozzi highlights MSFT "still trails the S&P 500".
  • 24/7 Wall St.提及短期上涨存在“时机”问题。
  • 微软当前股价“下跌0.4%”。
  • Brian Sozzi指出微软“仍落后于标普500”。
This market reflects immediate investor sentiment towards a tech giant, potentially signaling broader short-term market cautiousness or sector rotation. 该市场反映了投资者对科技巨头的即时情绪，可能预示着更广泛的短期市场谨慎或行业轮动。
Vol 24h: $12,001 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The core bull thesis remains strong at $500 with a $562 consensus analyst price target, indicating long-term growth potential. 核心看涨论点在500美元仍强劲，分析师共识目标价562美元，预示长期增长潜力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Short-term timing issues, current slight negative trading, and relative underperformance against the S&P 500 weigh on immediate prospects. 短期时机问题、当前小幅下跌及相对标普500表现不佳，对近期前景构成压力。
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500
#5 · Score 490

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12? Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?

0% -48.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $223,338 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 476

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on August 12? Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on August 12?

1% -47.2%

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $8,193 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 469

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 12? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 12?

3% -46.6%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $1,599 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 450

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 12? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 12?

98% +44.6%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $7,002 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 449

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 12? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 12?

94% +44.5%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $19,038 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 448

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of August 10 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of August 10 2026?

14% -44.5%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,343 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 409

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 12? Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 12?

90% +40.5%

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $8,147 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#12 · Score 389

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 12? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 12?

12% -38.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $3,514 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 358

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $337.50 Week of August 10 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $337.50 Week of August 10 2026?

30% -35.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $337.50 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,101 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 345

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?

94% +34.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $36,858 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 338

NVDA $228 Target: Probability Surges 英伟达228美元目标：概率飙升

51% +33.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of August 10 2026?

NVIDIA's probability of hitting $228 by August 10, 2026, surged to 51% from 17.5%. This was primarily driven by strong buy recommendations from Chris Cheung and The Hindu Business Line. 英伟达在2026年8月10日前达到228美元的概率从17.5%飙升至51%。这主要受Chris Cheung和《印度教商报》的强烈买入建议驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Chris Cheung's 'BUYING THIS STOCK NOW' video (Aug 6, 2026)
  • The Hindu Business Line's 'Today’s Stock Recommendation' (Aug 10, 2026)
  • General positive long-term forecasts for NVDA
  • Chris Cheung“现在买入此股”视频（2026年8月6日）
  • 《印度教商报》“今日股票推荐”（2026年8月10日）
  • 英伟达普遍积极的长期预测
NVIDIA's performance is a key indicator for the broader AI and tech sectors, influencing investor confidence. Reaching this target would validate its continued leadership. 英伟达的表现是更广泛的AI和科技行业的关键指标，影响投资者信心。达到此目标将验证其持续的领导地位。
Vol 24h: $677 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong buy recommendations from Chris Cheung and The Hindu Business Line are expected to drive NVDA's price above $228 this week. Chris Cheung和《印度教商报》的强烈买入建议预计将推动英伟达本周股价突破228美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite positive recommendations, broader market headwinds or unexpected company news could prevent NVDA from reaching $228. 尽管有积极建议，但更广泛的市场逆风或突发公司新闻可能阻止英伟达达到228美元。
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500
#16 · Score 334

SPX Set to Open Up on August 12 标普500指数8月12日预计高开

100% +33.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 12?

The S&P 500 is predicted with 100% certainty to open higher on August 12. This strong conviction is driven by robust AI infrastructure earnings and calming inflation data. 标普500指数在8月12日被100%预测将高开。这一强烈信心主要源于强劲的AI基础设施公司财报和缓解的通胀数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Strong AI infrastructure earnings
  • Calming inflation data
  • Positive U.S. stock futures
  • 强劲AI基础设施财报
  • 通胀数据趋于平稳
  • 美股期货盘前上涨
This indicates investor confidence in corporate profitability and a potentially less aggressive Federal Reserve policy. A strong open could signal continued market strength. 这表明投资者对企业盈利能力和美联储可能采取不那么激进的政策充满信心。强劲开盘可能预示市场将持续走强。
Vol 24h: $26,555 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings and easing inflation concerns will likely sustain the market's upward momentum. 强劲的企业盈利和通胀担忧缓解将支撑市场上涨势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected geopolitical tensions or a sudden shift in economic outlook could still prompt a market reversal. 意外的地缘政治紧张或经济前景突变仍可能导致市场逆转。
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500
#17 · Score 319

Will Meta (META) finish week of August 10 above $610? Will Meta (META) finish week of August 10 above $610?

8% -31.5%

Will Meta (META) finish week of August 10 above $610?

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Vol 24h: $4,613 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 293

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on August 12? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on August 12?

10% -29.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $1,679 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 268

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 10 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 10 2026?

72% +26.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $831 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#20 · Score 248

Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000

23% -24.5%

Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $1,375 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 233

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $275 on August 12? Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $275 on August 12?

2% -22.9%

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $275 on August 12?

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Vol 24h: $6,107 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 233

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026?

100% +22.9%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,299 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 218

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the Novembe No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the Novembe

58% -21.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $2,450 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 193

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 1 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 1

52% +19.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,317 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 193

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?

100% +18.9%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,530 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 179

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

53% -17.5%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $13,173 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 174

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 12? Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 12?

100% +17.0%

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 12?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $17,816 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 169

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?

52% -16.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $6,934 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 168

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in August? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in August?

66% +16.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $570 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 158

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 10 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 10 2026?

14% -15.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $845 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。