AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 09, 2026 10:43 UTC
#1 · Score 972

Trump's Ceasefire Announcement Boosts Market to 100% 特朗普宣布停火，市场飙升至100%

100% +96.5%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

The market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, surged to 100% after Donald Trump announced both nations agreed to a 3-day truce. This agreement, reportedly including a prisoner swap, is set for Victory Day, May 8, 2026. 俄罗斯与乌克兰在2026年5月31日前停火的市场概率飙升至100%，此前唐纳德·特朗普宣布两国已同意为期三天的停火。据报道，该协议包括交换1000名战俘，并定于2026年5月8日胜利日开始。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump announces Russia-Ukraine 3-day ceasefire
  • Agreement includes 1,000 prisoner swap
  • Ceasefire scheduled for May 8, 2026
  • 特朗普宣布俄乌三天停火
  • 协议包括交换1000名战俘
  • 停火定于2026年5月8日
This potential ceasefire, even temporary, could signal a willingness for de-escalation and future peace talks, impacting geopolitical stability and humanitarian efforts. 此次潜在停火，即使是暂时的，也可能预示着局势降级和未来和谈的意愿，影响地缘政治稳定和人道主义努力。
Vol 24h: $7,103,736 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The announced 3-day ceasefire will successfully occur as planned, fulfilling the market's resolution criteria. 宣布的三天停火将按计划成功实施，满足市场结算条件。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The announced 3-day ceasefire might not fully materialize or be recognized as a valid resolution by market rules. 宣布的三天停火可能无法完全实现，或不被市场规则认定为有效解决。
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500
#2 · Score 941

Trump-brokered Ceasefire Boosts Market 特朗普促成停火推高市场

100% +93.5%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, surged to 100% following Donald Trump's announcement of a three-day truce. Both President Zelenskyy and President Putin's foreign affairs advisor reportedly agreed to this temporary ceasefire. 俄罗斯与乌克兰在2026年6月30日前停火的概率飙升至100%，此前唐纳德·特朗普宣布达成一项为期三天的停火协议。据报道，泽连斯基总统和普京总统的外交事务顾问均已同意这项临时停火。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump announced a 3-day ceasefire agreement.
  • Russia and Ukraine reportedly agreed to the truce.
  • Agreement includes a 1,000 prisoner swap.
  • Truce timed for Victory Day.
  • 特朗普宣布为期三天的停火协议。
  • 俄乌双方据报已同意停火。
  • 协议包含交换1000名战俘。
  • 停火恰逢胜利日进行。
This temporary agreement, if successful, could set a precedent for future de-escalation or broader peace negotiations. However, its short duration also highlights the fragility of such agreements. 这一临时协议若能成功，可能为未来的局势降级或更广泛的和平谈判奠定基础。然而，其短暂的持续时间也凸显了此类协议的脆弱性。
Vol 24h: $2,945,542 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The successful implementation of this 3-day truce establishes a vital precedent for future, longer-term negotiations and broader peace agreements. 此次三天停火的成功实施，为未来更长期的谈判和更广泛的和平协议奠定了重要先例。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Previous ceasefires have failed, and this short, politically motivated truce might not lead to any lasting resolution by June 2026. 过去的停火多失败，此次短暂停火恐难在2026年6月前带来持久解决。
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500
#3 · Score 723

RKLB Soars on Record Deal & Q1 Beat RKLB因创纪录合同和Q1业绩飙升

100% +72.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

Rocket Lab's probability of hitting $100 in May surged to 100% due to its largest-ever launch contract and strong first-quarter revenue performance. This significant contract, coupled with beating Q1 revenue estimates, fueled a substantial stock rally. 鉴于其有史以来最大的发射合同和强劲的第一季度营收表现，Rocket Lab在五月份触及100美元的概率飙升至100%。这份重大合同以及超出预期的Q1营收，共同推动了股价的大幅上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Record-setting launch contract secured
  • Exceeded Q1 revenue estimates
  • Stifel analyst 'Buy' rating
  • 获得创纪录发射合同
  • 第一季度营收超出预期
  • Stifel分析师给出“买入”评级
This indicates strong market confidence in Rocket Lab's growth trajectory and its ability to secure major contracts in the competitive space industry. 这表明市场对Rocket Lab的增长轨迹及其在竞争激烈的航天工业中获得大合同的能力充满信心。
Vol 24h: $3,524 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Record launch contract and strong Q1 results signal robust growth, pushing the stock past $100. 创纪录的发射合同和强劲Q1业绩预示强劲增长，推动股价突破100美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen catastrophic launch failure or a sudden, severe market downturn could prevent RKLB from reaching $100. 意外的灾难性发射失败或突发严重市场低迷可能阻止RKLB达到100美元。
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500
#4 · Score 504

Bitcoin Surges: Expert Bull Call Dominates 比特币飙升：专家看涨主导

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4AM ET

The market for Bitcoin's direction on May 9, 4AM ET has reached 100% 'Up' probability. This surge is primarily driven by Fundstrat's Tom Lee's declaration of a crypto bull market, citing Bitcoin's unusual technical action. 比特币在5月9日凌晨4点（ET）的涨跌预测市场已达到100%“上涨”概率。这一飙升主要受Fundstrat的Tom Lee宣布加密牛市的推动，他引用了比特币“不寻常的技术走势”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fundstrat's Tom Lee calls for crypto bull market.
  • Bitcoin's "unusual technical action" cited.
  • Positive S&P 500 and Nasdaq performance.
  • Fundstrat的Tom Lee看好加密牛市。
  • 比特币“不寻常的技术走势”被引用。
  • 标普500和纳斯达克表现积极。
Expert analysis from prominent figures like Tom Lee significantly influences investor sentiment and market predictions. It suggests a potential decoupling of Bitcoin's price from individual mining company struggles. 像Tom Lee这样的知名专家分析显著影响投资者情绪和市场预测。这表明比特币价格可能与个别矿企困境脱钩。
Vol 24h: $39,417 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Fundstrat's Tom Lee's strong technical analysis points to an imminent crypto bull market, overriding miner losses. Fundstrat的Tom Lee技术分析强烈看涨，预示牛市，盖过矿企亏损。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Mining companies like Core Scientific and ABTC reporting widening losses, plus Bitdeer selling BTC, signal underlying weakness. 矿企如Core Scientific和ABTC亏损扩大，Bitdeer出售比特币，预示潜在弱势。
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500
#5 · Score 344

Apple Surges on Tech Rally, Chip Report 苹果股价随科技热潮飙升

92% +34.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?

AAPL's probability to hit $296 in May surged to 92% following a broad tech rally and a specific "Apple report" that fueled a chip sector surge. Record highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500, driven by AI trade and upbeat tech earnings, created strong upward momentum. 苹果(AAPL)五月触及296美元的概率升至92%，主要受科技股普涨及一份“苹果报告”推动芯片板块上涨。纳斯达克和标普500指数在AI交易和乐观科技财报带动下创下新高，为苹果提供了强劲上涨动力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "Apple report" fuels chip rally (via Intel)
  • Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highs
  • AI trade drives broad tech sector rally
  • “苹果报告”推动芯片股上涨
  • 纳斯达克、标普500指数创新高
  • AI交易驱动科技板块普涨
This movement reflects strong investor confidence in Apple's future performance and the broader tech sector's growth trajectory, potentially signaling continued market strength. 这一走势反映了投资者对苹果未来业绩和更广泛科技行业增长轨迹的强烈信心，可能预示着市场将持续走强。
Vol 24h: $7,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued AI-driven tech rally and positive Apple-specific news will push AAPL past $296. AI驱动的科技热潮和利好苹果消息将推动股价突破296美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Market correction or unexpected negative Apple news could halt momentum, preventing the target. 市场回调或苹果负面消息可能阻碍上涨势头，未能达到目标。
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500
#6 · Score 334

Opendoor Low Price Probability Surges Opendoor触及低点概率飙升

76% +33.0%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May?

The probability of Opendoor (OPEN) hitting $4.50 in May surged to 76%, indicating strong bearish sentiment. However, the provided recent headlines are entirely unrelated to Opendoor, suggesting the movement is driven by unstated market factors. Opendoor (OPEN) 在5月触及4.50美元的概率飙升至76%，表明市场看跌情绪强烈。然而，提供的近期头条新闻与Opendoor完全无关，暗示此波动由未披露的市场因素驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Unfavorable housing market conditions
  • Opendoor's financial performance concerns
  • Negative analyst sentiment/reports
  • 不利的房地产市场状况
  • Opendoor财务表现担忧
  • 分析师负面评价或报告
Signals potential distress for Opendoor's iBuying model and broader real estate sector challenges. 预示Opendoor的iBuying模式面临困境及房地产行业更广泛挑战。
Vol 24h: $3,886 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stronger housing market recovery or positive company updates could prevent the $4.50 low. 房地产市场强劲复苏或公司利好消息可避免跌至4.50美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued housing downturn or poor financial results will likely drive OPEN to $4.50. 房地产持续低迷或业绩不佳可能推动OPEN跌至4.50美元。
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500
#7 · Score 238

Tesla China Sales Surge Drives $420 Target 特斯拉中国销量飙升

100% +23.4%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 in May?

The probability for TSLA to hit $420 in May surged to 100% due to robust April sales data from China. Tesla's China-made EV sales increased 36% year-on-year, prompting positive analyst sentiment and technical buy signals. 特斯拉5月触及420美元的概率升至100%，主要受中国市场4月强劲销售数据推动。特斯拉中国产电动汽车销量同比增长36%，引发积极的市场情绪和技术买入信号。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tesla's April China EV sales surged 36% YoY.
  • Investor's Business Daily cited China sales spike.
  • TSLA stock passed an aggressive technical buy point.
  • 特斯拉4月中国电动车销量同比增36%。
  • 投资者日报强调中国销量飙升。
  • TSLA股价突破激进技术买入点。
Strong sales in China, a critical growth market, signal robust demand for Tesla EVs. This performance can significantly impact investor confidence and Q2 earnings outlook. 中国作为关键增长市场的强劲销售，预示着特斯拉电动汽车需求旺盛。这将显著影响投资者信心和公司第二季度盈利前景。
Vol 24h: $3,692 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong global demand and positive analyst revisions could push TSLA past $420. 全球需求持续强劲及分析师上调预期，或推动TSLA突破420美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected negative news or broader market downturn could prevent TSLA from sustaining $420. 意外负面消息或大盘回调，可能阻止TSLA维持在420美元。
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500
#8 · Score 210

MSTR Sell BTC Probability Jumps 微策略出售比特币概率飙升

36% +20.5%

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

The probability of MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin by May 2026 surged after the company reported a $12.5 billion loss. News of other crypto firms like Core Scientific selling Bitcoin also fueled speculation. 微策略报告125亿美元巨额亏损后，其在2026年5月前出售比特币的概率大幅上升。其他加密公司如Core Scientific出售比特币的消息也加剧了市场猜测。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • MicroStrategy reported a $12.5 billion loss.
  • Core Scientific sold Bitcoin due to financial results.
  • Trump's crypto mining company lost $45M.
  • 微策略报告125亿美元亏损。
  • Core Scientific因财报出售比特币。
  • 特朗普加密矿企亏损4500万美元。
MicroStrategy's strategy is a bellwether for corporate Bitcoin adoption; any sale would signal a major shift. 微策略的策略是企业比特币采用的风向标；任何出售都将标志着重大转变。
Vol 24h: $181,776 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained operational losses or significant debt servicing costs could eventually force MicroStrategy to liquidate some Bitcoin holdings. 持续的运营亏损或巨额债务偿还最终可能迫使微策略清算部分比特币持仓。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Michael Saylor's unwavering commitment to Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset means he will avoid selling at all costs. 迈克尔·塞勒对将比特币作为长期储备资产的坚定承诺，意味着他将不惜一切代价避免出售。
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500
#9 · Score 188

Coinbase Plunges on Earnings Miss Coinbase财报不佳股价暴跌

100% +18.4%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $185 in May?

The probability of Coinbase hitting a $185 low in May surged to 100% as the company reported a second consecutive quarterly loss and missed revenue expectations. This poor performance, amid a softer crypto market, caused Coinbase stock to drop significantly. Coinbase在公布连续第二个季度亏损并低于营收预期后，其股价在5月触及185美元低点的可能性飙升至100%。在加密市场疲软的背景下，这一糟糕的业绩导致Coinbase股价大幅下跌。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Coinbase reports second consecutive quarterly loss
  • Company misses revenue expectations
  • Broader crypto market slump persists
  • Coinbase连续第二个季度亏损
  • 公司营收未达市场预期
  • 加密货币市场整体疲软
Coinbase's performance is a key indicator for the health of the broader crypto industry and investor sentiment towards digital assets. Its struggles reflect ongoing challenges in the crypto space. Coinbase的业绩是衡量加密行业健康状况和投资者对数字资产情绪的关键指标。其困境反映了加密领域持续存在的挑战。
Vol 24h: $9,620 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Citigroup's predicted rebound or a strong crypto market recovery could push COIN above $185. 花旗银行预测反弹或加密市场强劲复苏可能推动COIN股价突破185美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued crypto market weakness and further negative earnings reports will keep COIN below $185. 加密市场持续疲软和更多负面财报将使COIN保持在185美元以下。
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500
#10 · Score 187

GOOGL's AI Surge to $400 谷歌AI狂潮冲刺400美元

100% +18.3%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in May?

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) probability to hit $400 in May surged to 100% due to overwhelming evidence of explosive AI sector growth. Headlines about Anthropic's Q1 growth and AMD's AI data center surge highlight unprecedented demand, positioning GOOGL as a primary beneficiary. 谷歌（GOOGL）五月触及400美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受AI领域爆炸性增长的强劲证据驱动。Anthropic一季度增长和AMD AI数据中心激增的报道，凸显了前所未有的市场需求，使谷歌成为主要受益者。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Explosive AI computing demand
  • Anthropic's Q1 growth revelation
  • AMD's AI data center surge
  • AI计算需求爆炸式增长
  • Anthropic一季度业绩超预期
  • AMD AI数据中心业务激增
This movement underscores the market's extreme bullishness on AI, signaling a potential re-evaluation of tech giants deeply invested in the sector. 这一走势凸显了市场对AI的极度看好，预示着对深度布局AI的科技巨头可能进行价值重估。
Vol 24h: $12,360 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unprecedented AI demand and Google's dominant position in AI infrastructure and models will drive a massive re-rating. 前所未有的AI需求和谷歌在AI基础设施及模型领域的领导地位将推动股价大幅重估。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The $400 target is excessively ambitious, and any slowdown in AI growth or broader market correction could halt the rally. 400美元目标过于激进，AI增长放缓或市场回调可能阻碍股价上涨。
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500
#11 · Score 180

Ethereum Dip Probability Plummets 以太坊下跌概率骤降

2% -17.5%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?

The probability of Ethereum dipping to $2,200 by May 10th has sharply dropped to 2%, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Recent headlines highlight ambitious price predictions for ETH, with some analysts eyeing $3,000 or even $10,000. 以太坊在5月10日前跌至2,200美元的概率已急剧降至2%，反映出强劲的看涨情绪。近期头条新闻强调了以太坊雄心勃勃的价格预测，一些分析师甚至预计其将达到3,000美元或10,000美元。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ethereum price predictions target $3,000-$10,000.
  • AlphaPepe presale success signals strong crypto demand.
  • Broader crypto market shows bullish price targets.
  • 以太坊价格预测目标3,000-10,000美元。
  • AlphaPepe预售成功，表明加密需求强劲。
  • 更广泛的加密市场显示看涨价格目标。
This market reflects investor confidence in Ethereum's immediate price trajectory, impacting trading strategies and broader crypto market sentiment. 该市场反映了投资者对以太坊近期价格走势的信心，影响交易策略和更广泛的加密市场情绪。
Vol 24h: $11,791 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected negative macroeconomic data or regulatory crackdown could trigger a sharp market correction. 意外的负面宏观经济数据或监管打击可能引发市场急剧回调。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong capital inflow from successful presales and continued bullish price predictions sustain ETH's upward momentum. 成功的预售资金流入和持续看涨预测支撑以太坊。
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500
#12 · Score 164

Antitrust Settlement Cuts Beef Price Risk 反垄断和解降低牛肉价格风险

38% -16.0%

Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?

The probability of ground beef hitting $10/lb in 2026 dropped 16% to 38% following news of the Trump administration's meatpacking antitrust settlement. This action aims to increase competition and directly reduce grocery prices. 2026年碎牛肉价格达到每磅10美元的概率下降16%至38%，此前有消息称特朗普政府解决了肉类加工反垄断案件。此举旨在增加竞争并直接降低食品杂货价格。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump administration settles meatpacking antitrust case
  • Government intervention targets lower grocery prices
  • Expected increase in meatpacking industry competition
  • 特朗普政府解决肉类加工反垄断案
  • 政府干预旨在降低食品杂货价格
  • 预计肉类加工行业竞争将加剧
This market reflects broader concerns about food inflation and the effectiveness of government actions to control consumer costs, impacting household budgets. 该市场反映了对食品通胀和政府控制消费者成本有效性的广泛担忧，影响家庭预算。
Vol 24h: $5,372 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent high diesel prices and general food inflation will continue to drive up beef production and transportation costs. 柴油价格持续高企和普遍的食品通胀将继续推高牛肉生产和运输成本。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The meatpacking antitrust settlement successfully increases competition, leading to lower ground beef prices for consumers. 肉类加工反垄断和解成功增加市场竞争，导致消费者碎牛肉价格下降。
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500
#13 · Score 153

MSFT Low Target Probability Rises 微软触及405美元低点概率上升

66% +15.0%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in May?

The probability of Microsoft (MSFT) hitting a low of $405 in May surged to 66% (+15.0%). This movement was primarily driven by a headline reporting an "AI Stock Dives On Earnings" and broader market peak concerns. 微软（MSFT）在5月触及405美元低点的概率升至66%（+15.0%）。这一变化主要受“AI股财报暴跌”以及市场见顶担忧驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Unidentified "AI Stock Dives On Earnings"
  • S&P 500 target nears Wall Street's top
  • NVIDIA China connection investor risks ahead
  • 未具名“AI股财报暴跌”
  • 标普500指数目标接近华尔街顶部
  • 英伟达中国业务面临投资者风险
This movement reflects growing investor caution regarding the AI sector's valuation and potential broader market corrections, impacting a key tech leader. 这一变化反映了投资者对AI板块估值和潜在大盘回调的日益谨慎，影响着科技巨头微软。
Vol 24h: $1,741 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued negative earnings surprises from AI peers could intensify sector-wide selling pressure, pushing MSFT towards $405. AI同行财报持续负面可能加剧板块抛售压力，推动微软股价跌向405美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Microsoft's robust cloud growth and diversified business model may provide resilience, preventing a drop to the $405 low. 微软强劲的云业务增长和多元化商业模式或提供韧性，阻止股价跌至405美元低点。
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500
#14 · Score 134

SPY Rally Stalls, $710 Target Fades SPY涨势停滞，$710目标渐远

36% -13.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

The probability of SPY hitting $710 in May decreased by 13% to 36% as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stalled after reaching record highs. This pause was primarily driven by crude oil steadying and anticipation of an Iran-US deal update, tempering extreme bullish expectations. SPY五月触及$710的概率下降13%至36%，因标普500和纳斯达克在创纪录新高后出现停滞。原油价格企稳以及对伊朗-美国协议更新的观望，是抑制极度看涨预期的主要原因。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq market rally stalled.
  • Crude oil prices steadied, removing a tailwind.
  • Uncertainty from upcoming inflation and consumer spending data.
  • 标普500和纳斯达克市场涨势停滞。
  • 原油价格企稳，消除部分利好。
  • 即将公布的通胀和消费者支出数据带来不确定性。
A market stall after significant gains suggests investor caution, potentially signaling a period of consolidation rather than continued rapid ascent, impacting broader market sentiment. 市场在大幅上涨后停滞，表明投资者趋于谨慎，可能预示着盘整期而非持续快速上涨，从而影响更广泛的市场情绪。
Vol 24h: $11,359 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings and positive economic data could re-ignite momentum, pushing SPY towards the ambitious $710 target. 强劲的企业财报和积极的经济数据可能重新点燃市场动能，推动SPY迈向$710的雄心目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent inflation concerns or geopolitical tensions could halt market gains, making the $710 target unattainable. 持续的通胀担忧或地缘政治紧张局势可能阻碍市场上涨，使$710目标难以实现。
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500
#15 · Score 129

NVDA Surges on Chip Rally 英伟达芯片股飙升

100% +12.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in May?

NVDA's probability to hit $216 in May reached 100% due to a broad rally in chip stocks. AMD's blockbuster forecast and strong jobs data fueled investor optimism across the tech sector. 英伟达（NVDA）5月触及216美元的概率升至100%，主要受芯片股普遍上涨推动。AMD的强劲业绩预测和强劲就业数据提振了科技行业的投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AMD's blockbuster forecast boosts chip sector
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs on tech rally
  • Strong jobs data fuels broader market optimism
  • AMD强劲预测提振芯片板块
  • 标普500和纳斯达克创历史新高
  • 强劲就业数据推高市场乐观情绪
This movement highlights significant investor confidence in the AI and semiconductor industry's growth trajectory. NVDA's performance often signals broader tech market health. 此次上涨凸显了投资者对人工智能和半导体行业增长轨迹的巨大信心。英伟达的表现常被视为科技市场整体健康的风向标。
Vol 24h: $34,616 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong demand for AI chips and positive sector forecasts will likely keep NVDA's momentum going. 人工智能芯片需求持续强劲及行业前景乐观，将继续推动英伟达股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A sudden broader market correction or unexpected negative news for NVDA could reverse its current gains. 市场突发回调或英伟达意外负面消息，可能逆转当前涨势。
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500
#16 · Score 128

GTA VI November Confirmed, Rihanna Album Odds Up GTA VI十一月确认，蕾哈娜专辑几率上升

64% +12.5%

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

The probability of a new Rihanna album releasing before GTA VI surged to 64% after Rockstar confirmed GTA VI is "Due Out in November" and teased a summer GTA Online update. This news suggests GTA VI's marketing push is not imminent, creating a clearer window for a potential Rihanna release. 在Rockstar确认《GTA VI》将于“十一月发行”并预告夏季《GTA Online》更新后，蕾哈娜新专辑早于《GTA VI》发行的可能性飙升至64%。此消息表明《GTA VI》的营销攻势并非迫在眉睫，为蕾哈娜的潜在发布创造了更清晰的窗口期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • IGN confirms GTA VI "Due Out in November"
  • Rockstar's focus on summer GTA Online update
  • Lack of immediate GTA VI marketing push
  • IGN确认《GTA VI》“十一月发行”
  • Rockstar夏季专注于《GTA Online》更新
  • 《GTA VI》营销攻势尚未启动
This market reflects broader industry trends in entertainment release strategies, balancing highly anticipated music comebacks against blockbuster video game launches for consumer attention and revenue. 该市场反映了娱乐发行策略的更广泛趋势，平衡了备受期待的音乐回归与重磅视频游戏发布对消费者关注度和收入的争夺。
Vol 24h: $3,028 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 GTA VI's firm November release and summer GTA Online focus provide a clear window for Rihanna to drop an album before its marketing blitz. 《GTA VI》十一月确定发布及夏季专注《GTA Online》，为蕾哈娜在营销战前发布专辑提供了明确窗口。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rockstar could accelerate GTA VI marketing or Rihanna's album could face further delays, pushing it beyond GTA VI's release. Rockstar可能加速《GTA VI》营销，或蕾哈娜专辑再次推迟，晚于《GTA VI》发布。
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500
#17 · Score 110

Bitcoin Up Probability Jumps 比特币上涨概率飙升

60% +10.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on May 9th rose to 60%, driven by Fundstrat's Tom Lee's bullish technical analysis and American Bitcoin's purchase of 300 BTC. 比特币在5月9日上涨的概率升至60%，主要受Fundstrat的Tom Lee看涨技术分析以及美国比特币公司购买300枚比特币的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts crypto bull market
  • Trump-backed American Bitcoin buys 300 BTC
  • Fundstrat Tom Lee看涨分析
  • 特朗普家族公司增持比特币
This movement suggests that positive technical indicators and specific institutional buying can override negative financial reports from mining companies, indicating selective market focus. 这一走势表明，积极的技术指标和特定的机构买入能够抵消矿业公司的负面财务报告，显示市场具有选择性关注。
Vol 24h: $81,539 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Fundstrat's Tom Lee's bullish technical analysis and American Bitcoin's continued BTC purchases signal upward momentum. Fundstrat Tom Lee的看涨技术分析和美国比特币公司的持续买入预示上涨势头。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Major mining companies like Core Scientific reporting large losses and Bitdeer selling BTC could pressure prices down. Core Scientific等主要矿企巨额亏损，Bitdeer抛售比特币可能施压价格。
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500
#18 · Score 108

SpaceX IPO Hopes Boost Musk's Net Worth Odds SpaceX上市预期推高马斯克身家

25% +10.5%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?

The probability of Elon Musk's net worth reaching $690 billion by May 31 increased by 10.5% to 25%, driven by news of a potential SpaceX IPO and its ambitious $55 billion investment in AI chip manufacturing. These developments suggest a significant revaluation of Musk's primary asset. 埃隆·马斯克净资产在5月31日前达到6900亿美元的概率上升10.5%至25%，主要受SpaceX潜在IPO及其550亿美元AI芯片投资计划消息驱动。这些进展预示马斯克核心资产将大幅重估。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • SpaceX's rumored $2 trillion IPO valuation.
  • SpaceX's planned $55 billion Terafab AI chip investment.
  • Anticipation of a 'windfall' for SpaceX shareholders.
  • SpaceX传闻中2万亿美元的IPO估值。
  • SpaceX计划投资550亿美元用于AI芯片。
  • 市场预期SpaceX股东将获得巨额回报。
This market reflects investor confidence in SpaceX's growth trajectory and its potential to significantly impact Elon Musk's personal wealth, influencing broader tech and space industry valuations. 该市场反映了投资者对SpaceX增长轨迹及其对马斯克个人财富影响的信心，进而影响更广泛的科技和航天产业估值。
Vol 24h: $1,003 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 SpaceX's potential $2 trillion IPO and $55 billion AI chip investment could rapidly elevate Musk's net worth past $690 billion. SpaceX潜在的2万亿美元IPO及550亿美元AI芯片投资，有望迅速推高马斯克净资产至6900亿美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Regulatory scrutiny and union warnings regarding SpaceX's 'defies financial logic' IPO valuation could hinder its market debut. 监管审查和工会对SpaceX“违背金融逻辑”IPO估值的警告，可能阻碍其市场首次亮相。
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500
#19 · Score 97

Weinstein Prison Time Less Likely 韦恩斯坦免刑概率下降

22% -9.4%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

The probability of Harvey Weinstein receiving no prison time dropped by 9.4% to 22%, driven by recent severe sentences for high-profile sexual offense cases. Specifically, Superdry co-founder James Holder was sentenced to eight years in prison for rape, setting a precedent for significant penalties. 哈维·韦恩斯坦免于监禁的概率下降9.4%至22%，主要受近期高知名度性侵案件重判的影响。特别是Superdry联合创始人James Holder因强奸罪被判八年监禁，为类似案件树立了严厉判决的先例。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Superdry co-founder James Holder sentenced to eight years for rape.
  • Judicial trend towards severe penalties for high-profile sexual offenders.
  • Superdry创始人James Holder强奸获刑八年。
  • 高知名度性侵犯面临严判的司法趋势。
This case continues to be a bellwether for accountability in the #MeToo era, influencing how courts handle powerful individuals accused of sexual crimes. 此案持续作为#MeToo时代问责制的风向标，影响法院如何处理被控性犯罪的权势人物。
Vol 24h: $699 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Weinstein's advanced age and deteriorating health could lead to a compassionate non-custodial sentence. 韦恩斯坦年迈体弱，或因健康原因获宽大处理，免于监禁。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Recent severe sentences for similar high-profile sexual offense convictions, like James Holder's, indicate a strong likelihood of prison time. James Holder等高知名度性侵案重判，韦恩斯坦入狱可能性大增。
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500
#20 · Score 95

Iran Deal Doubts Rise 伊朗协议前景黯淡

28% -9.0%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

The probability of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30 dropped significantly as President Trump threatened bombing amid ongoing, yet unconfirmed, peace talks. Iran is still evaluating US proposals, indicating no immediate agreement. 尽管有和平谈判的报道，但美国总统特朗普威胁轰炸伊朗，导致伊朗在6月30日前同意停止铀浓缩的可能性大幅下降。伊朗仍在评估美国提案，尚未达成任何协议。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump threatens bombing if Iran doesn't reopen strait.
  • Iran still evaluating US peace proposals, not agreeing.
  • Vague "emerging deal" lacks concrete commitment.
  • 特朗普威胁轰炸伊朗若不重开海峡。
  • 伊朗仍在评估美国和平提案，未同意。
  • “新兴协议”报道模糊，缺乏具体承诺。
This market reflects the potential for de-escalation in the Middle East, impacts global energy security, and influences nuclear non-proliferation efforts. 该市场反映中东局势降级潜力、全球能源安全影响及核不扩散努力。
Vol 24h: $39,869 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran and US announce a breakthrough agreement, publicly committing to end enrichment by the June 30 deadline. 伊朗和美国宣布谈判突破，公开承诺在6月30日截止日期前停止浓缩。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Negotiations collapse, or Iran explicitly rejects the US proposal, leading to further escalation of tensions. 谈判破裂，或伊朗明确拒绝美国提案，导致紧张局势进一步升级。
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500
#21 · Score 93

SPX $7,400 Certainty Surges on Bullish Targets 标普500触及7400几成定局

100% +8.9%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?

The probability of S&P 500 hitting $7,400 by December surged to 100%, driven by major financial institutions raising their year-end targets. RBC Capital Markets notably lifted its S&P 500 target to 7,900, citing strong AI optimism. 标普500指数在12月前触及7400点的可能性飙升至100%，主要受大型金融机构上调年末目标驱动。其中，加拿大皇家银行（RBC）将标普500目标上调至7900点，理由是强劲的AI乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RBC raises SPX target to 7,900 on AI optimism
  • Stunning US corporate profit strength reported
  • Wall Street analysts increase S&P 500 targets
  • RBC因AI乐观情绪上调标普500目标至7900
  • 美国企业利润强劲，推动股市创新高
  • 华尔街分析师普遍上调标普500目标
This reflects growing institutional confidence in sustained market growth, potentially signaling a robust economic outlook and continued tech sector leadership. It suggests investors are pricing in significant future earnings potential. 这反映了机构对市场持续增长的信心增强，可能预示着经济前景强劲和科技板块的持续领先。投资者正在消化显著的未来盈利潜力。
Vol 24h: $6,092 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings and AI-driven growth, as evidenced by RBC's 7,900 target, make SPX $7,400 highly achievable. 强劲的企业盈利和AI驱动增长，加上RBC上调目标，使标普500触及7400点极有可能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Overheated AI optimism or an unexpected economic downturn could challenge the current 100% probability. 过度乐观的AI情绪或突发经济下行，可能挑战当前100%的预测。
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500
#22 · Score 84

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?

91% +8.0%

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $5,686 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 83

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in May? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?

36% +8.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $937 Polymarket ↗
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500
#24 · Score 78

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

62% -7.5%

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,154 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 73

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

16% +7.0%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $705 Polymarket ↗
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500
#26 · Score 68

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

62% +6.5%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

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Vol 24h: $1,295 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 65

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

8% -6.0%

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $117,901 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 65

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

42% -6.0%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $40,036 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 63

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the

6% -6.0%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

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Vol 24h: $1,699 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 63

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

46% +6.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

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Vol 24h: $562 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 25

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet

97% +1.9%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $411,380 Polymarket ↗
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500
#32 · Score 12

JetBlue Bankruptcy: Merger Fallout Lingers 捷蓝航空破产：并购余波未平

14% -0.9%

Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?

The 14% probability reflects lingering concerns from the failed JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger, which left JetBlue without anticipated growth and synergies. Headlines highlight Spirit's 'downfall' and political blame for blocking the deal, indirectly raising questions about JetBlue's strategic path. 14%的概率反映了捷蓝航空与精神航空合并失败后遗留的担忧，该失败使捷蓝航空未能获得预期的增长和协同效应。头条新闻强调精神航空的“衰落”以及对阻止交易的政治指责，间接引发了对捷蓝航空战略路径的疑问。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Failed JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger impact
  • Spirit Airlines' severe financial distress
  • JetBlue's independent financial performance
  • Ongoing airline industry competitive pressures
  • 捷蓝航空-精神航空并购失败影响
  • 精神航空面临严峻财务困境
  • 捷蓝航空自身财务表现
  • 航空业持续的竞争压力
JetBlue's financial stability is crucial for its employees, investors, and the competitive landscape of the U.S. airline industry, impacting travel options. 捷蓝航空的财务稳定对其员工、投资者以及美国航空业的竞争格局至关重要，影响着旅行选择。
Vol 24h: $2,118 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 JetBlue's financial health deteriorates significantly due to intense competition and the lack of merger synergies. 捷蓝航空因激烈竞争和缺乏并购协同效应，财务状况显著恶化。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 JetBlue successfully executes a new strategic plan, improves profitability, and strengthens its balance sheet. 捷蓝航空成功执行新战略计划，提高盈利能力并增强资产负债表。
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。