AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 13, 2026 20:42 UTC
#1 · Score 698

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 13? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 13?

1% -69.5%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $2,619 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#2 · Score 619

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

88% +61.5%

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $17,106 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#3 · Score 581

BofA Boosts MSFT Outlook 美银力挺微软前景

98% +57.7%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 13?

The probability of Microsoft (MSFT) stock rising on July 13 surged to 98% following a strong "buy" recommendation from Bank of America for stocks heading into earnings. This move is further supported by a prevailing market sentiment that tech stocks remain highly attractive. 微软(MSFT)股价在7月13日上涨的概率飙升至98%，主要受美国银行发布财报前“买入”评级的强烈推动。市场普遍认为科技股仍具吸引力，也进一步支撑了这一走势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bank of America "buy" recommendation
  • Strong market sentiment for tech stocks
  • Anticipation of robust MSFT earnings
  • 美国银行发布“买入”评级
  • 市场对科技股情绪积极
  • 投资者预期微软财报强劲
A major institutional endorsement can significantly influence investor confidence and capital allocation, potentially setting a positive tone for the broader tech sector. 主要机构的认可能够显著提振投资者信心和资金配置，可能为整个科技板块定下积极基调。
Vol 24h: $5,565 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bank of America's "buy" rating and strong tech sector sentiment will drive MSFT higher on July 13. 美国银行的“买入”评级和积极的科技股情绪将推动MSFT在7月13日上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected negative earnings news or broader market downturn could reverse MSFT's upward momentum. 意外的负面财报消息或大盘下跌可能逆转MSFT的上涨势头。
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500
#4 · Score 533

Gold Nears $4,000 Target by July 2026 黄金逼近4000美元目标

100% +52.9%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 13 2026?

Gold's probability of hitting $4,000 by July 2026 surged to 100% after StoneX's Q3 Outlook projected prices near that level by year-end. Current declines, with gold testing $4,100, further solidify this expectation. 黄金在2026年7月前触及4000美元的概率飙升至100%，此前StoneX第三季度展望预测金价将在年底前接近该水平。目前金价测试4100美元并持续下跌，进一步强化了这一预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • StoneX Q3 Outlook projects gold near $4,000 by end-2026.
  • Gold currently tests $4,100, extending its decline.
  • Economic 'inversion dynamic' signals potential recession.
  • StoneX Q3展望预测2026年底金价接近4000美元。
  • 黄金目前测试4100美元，跌势延续。
  • 经济“倒挂动态”预示潜在衰退。
Gold's price trajectory reflects global economic stability, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks. Reaching $4,000 would signify significant shifts in these underlying factors. 黄金价格走势反映全球经济稳定、通胀预期及地缘政治风险。达到4000美元将预示这些潜在因素发生重大转变。
Vol 24h: $3,177 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty will drive safe-haven demand, ensuring gold hits $4,000. 地缘政治紧张和经济不确定性将推动避险需求，确保金价触及4000美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Selling exhaustion and a swift resolution of global conflicts could stabilize gold above $4,000. 抛售耗尽及全球冲突迅速解决，可能使金价稳定在4000美元上方。
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500
#5 · Score 509

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

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Vol 24h: $66,764 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 502

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1PM ET

0% -49.8%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1PM ET

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Vol 24h: $38,578 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 500

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of July 13 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of July 13 2026?

100% +49.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $46,490 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 493

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 Week of July 13 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 Week of July 13 2026?

18% -49.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,778 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 459

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 13? Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 13?

2% -45.6%

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $2,625 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 449

Bitcoin Probability Plummets Amid Miner Woes 比特币上涨概率暴跌，矿商承压

6% -44.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin rising by July 13th has crashed to 6%, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. This sharp decline is driven by significant selling pressure from miners like BitFuFu and major losses reported by Eric Trump's mining venture. 比特币在7月13日前上涨的概率已暴跌至6%，反映出强烈的看跌情绪。此次急剧下降主要受BitFuFu等矿商抛售以及埃里克·特朗普矿业巨额亏损驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BitFuFu sold 184 BTC, increasing selling pressure.
  • Eric Trump's mining venture lost over $600M.
  • Headlines discuss Bitcoin's "worst bear market ever."
  • BitFuFu出售184枚比特币增加抛压。
  • 埃里克·特朗普矿业损失超6亿美元。
  • 新闻讨论比特币“史上最差熊市”。
These events highlight the severe financial strain on Bitcoin miners, potentially leading to further capitulation and market instability. It also signals a broader reevaluation of crypto investments amidst a challenging market. 这些事件凸显比特币矿商面临的巨大财务压力，可能导致进一步的市场抛售和不稳定。这也预示着在充满挑战的市场中，对加密货币投资的更广泛重新评估。
Vol 24h: $12,940 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unexpected positive macro news or a sudden whale accumulation could trigger a short-term rebound. 意外的宏观利好消息或鲸鱼突然增持可能引发短期反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued miner capitulation and broader market downturn will likely sustain selling pressure. 矿商持续抛售和市场普遍低迷将可能维持下行压力。
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500
#11 · Score 434

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?

1% -42.9%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $134,439 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 433

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

72% +42.8%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

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Vol 24h: $71,351 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 433

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13? S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

1% -42.8%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $175,931 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 404

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

12% -40.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

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Vol 24h: $22,508 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 393

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 13? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 13?

16% -39.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $2,381 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 393

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of July 13 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of July 13 2026?

86% +39.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $74 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,617 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 384

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 13? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 13?

0% -38.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $38,246 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 353

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of July 13 2026? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of July 13 2026?

20% -35.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $896 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 348

Micron $930 Target Certainty 美光股价确定触及930美元

100% +34.4%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Micron (MU) trading at or above $930 by July 13, 2026, surged to 100% after a Wall Street analyst issued a bullish price target. This strong endorsement has seemingly overridden concerns about a rocky chip sector and geopolitical risks. 随着华尔街分析师发布看涨目标价，美光科技（MU）在2026年7月13日当周触及或超过930美元的概率飙升至100%。这一强劲的看涨支持似乎压倒了芯片行业面临的挑战和地缘政治风险。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bullish Wall Street analyst target for Micron's future valuation.
  • Market confidence in MU's long-term outlook despite sector weakness.
  • Investors discounting geopolitical risks like the 'chip war' and Iran.
  • 华尔街分析师看涨美光目标价。
  • 市场对美光长期前景充满信心。
  • 投资者淡化地缘政治风险。
This indicates extreme market confidence in Micron's future growth, potentially driven by AI demand, despite significant industry headwinds and global instability. It suggests a belief in a substantial re-rating of the company's valuation. 这表明市场对美光未来增长的极度信心，可能受人工智能需求驱动，尽管面临重大行业逆风和全球不稳定。它预示着公司估值将大幅重估。
Vol 24h: $2,463 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new bullish analyst target, likely at or above $930, confirms strong long-term growth prospects for Micron. 新的看涨分析师目标价（可能在930美元或以上）证实了美光强劲的长期增长前景。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions and a 'chip war' could severely impact Micron's supply chain and demand, making the $930 target unattainable. 地缘政治紧张和“芯片战争”可能严重影响美光供应链和需求，使930美元目标无法实现。
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500
#20 · Score 344

Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale? Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?

86% +34.0%

Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?

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Vol 24h: $28,297 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 308

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of July 13 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of July 13 2026?

100% +30.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,705 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 304

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 13? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 13?

78% +30.0%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 13?

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Vol 24h: $5,149 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 293

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?

52% -29.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?

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Vol 24h: $839 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 290

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

74% +28.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

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Vol 24h: $231,770 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 244

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026? Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?

29% +24.1%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,585 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 233

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of July 13 2026? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of July 13 2026?

27% -23.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of July 13 2026?

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Vol 24h: $2,384 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#27 · Score 224

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

39% -22.0%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $23,539 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#28 · Score 208

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of July 13 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of July 13 2026?

38% -20.5%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of July 13 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $845 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#29 · Score 204

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 13? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 13?

38% -20.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 13?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $18,613 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 191

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 13? Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 13?

2% -18.7%

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 13?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,293 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 161

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?

71% +15.8%

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,610 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。