AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
May 13, 2026 06:39 UTC
#1 · Score 584

Cerebras IPO valuation expectations surge Cerebras IPO估值预期飙升

11% -58.0%

Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?


The probability of Cerebras' market cap being less than $50B dropped sharply to 11% as strong demand for its IPO led to an increased share price range of $150-$160. This indicates market confidence in a significantly higher initial valuation for the AI chipmaker. Cerebras市值低于500亿美元的可能性急剧下降至11%,因其IPO需求强劲,导致股价区间上调至150-160美元。这表明市场对这家AI芯片制造商的初始估值抱有显著更高的信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Cerebras raising IPO price range to $150-$160
  • Surging investor demand for Cerebras' AI chips
  • Increased number of shares offered in IPO
  • Cerebras将IPO价格区间上调至150-160美元
  • 投资者对Cerebras AI芯片需求激增
  • IPO发行股份数量增加
This movement reflects the intense investor appetite for AI-related companies and could set a precedent for future AI tech IPO valuations. 这一变化反映了投资者对AI相关公司的强烈兴趣,并可能为未来AI科技IPO估值设定先例。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong investor demand and increased IPO pricing suggest Cerebras' market cap will easily exceed $50B on IPO day. 投资者需求强劲且IPO定价提高,预示Cerebras市值在IPO首日将轻松超过500亿美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite strong demand, market volatility or post-IPO selling pressure could still push Cerebras' valuation below $50B. 尽管需求旺盛,市场波动或IPO后抛售压力仍可能使Cerebras估值低于500亿美元。

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500
#2 · Score 504

Bitcoin Price Surge Imminent 比特币价格即将上涨

100% +50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET


The probability for Bitcoin to be up by May 12, 10 PM ET, has surged to 100%, driven primarily by significant promotional activities. Toobit's Bitcoin Pizza Day celebration, featuring BTC airdrops and USDT rewards, is directly stimulating demand. 比特币在5月12日晚10点前上涨的概率已飙升至100%,主要受重大促销活动推动。Toobit的比特币披萨日庆祝活动,包括BTC空投和USDT奖励,直接刺激了需求。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Toobit's Bitcoin Pizza Day promotions
  • BTC airdrops and USDT rewards
  • Increased retail engagement
  • Toobit比特币披萨日促销
  • BTC空投和USDT奖励
  • 零售参与度增加
This reflects strong short-term bullish sentiment within the crypto market, potentially signaling broader investor confidence despite cooling broader tech rallies. 这反映了加密市场强劲的短期看涨情绪,尽管更广泛的科技股涨势降温,但仍可能预示着更广泛的投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Toobit's Bitcoin Pizza Day airdrops and rewards directly incentivize buying, ensuring price appreciation by 10 PM ET. Toobit比特币披萨日空投和奖励直接刺激购买,确保价格在晚上10点前上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader market weakness from cooling AI rallies and inflation concerns could cap Bitcoin's gains. 人工智能涨势降温和通胀担忧导致的更广泛市场疲软可能限制比特币涨幅。

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500
#3 · Score 389

Tesla Pivots, Probability Plunges 特斯拉转型,概率骤降

34% -38.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 11 2026?


The probability of TSLA hitting $450 by May 2026 dropped sharply to 34% after Tesla announced ending Model S/X production to pivot to AI robots. This strategic shift introduces significant uncertainty regarding future revenue streams and market position. 特斯拉宣布停止Model S/X生产并转向AI机器人后,其股价在2026年5月前达到450美元的概率骤降至34%。这一战略转型给未来营收和市场地位带来了巨大不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tesla ends Model S/X production.
  • Strategic pivot to AI robots/robotaxis.
  • Another AI stock surpasses Tesla's valuation.
  • Industry shift away from pure EV focus.
  • 特斯拉停产Model S/X车型。
  • 战略重心转向AI机器人/出租车。
  • 另一AI股价值超越特斯拉。
  • 汽车业纯电动战略加速调整。
This move signifies a high-stakes gamble for Tesla, potentially redefining its core business from automotive to a broader AI/robotics company, with major implications for its valuation. 此举标志着特斯拉的一场高风险赌博,可能将其核心业务从汽车重新定义为更广泛的AI/机器人公司,对其估值产生重大影响。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Successful deployment of AI robots and robotaxis could unlock massive new markets, justifying a valuation exceeding $450. AI机器人和自动驾驶出租车的成功部署,将开启巨大新市场,支撑股价突破450美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The risky pivot away from proven car models, coupled with intense AI competition, could lead to significant revenue shortfalls. 放弃成熟车型,转向高风险AI,加上激烈竞争,可能导致营收不及预期。

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500
#4 · Score 353

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 Week of May 11 2 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 Week of May 11 2

32% -35.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#5 · Score 345

Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

32% -34.0%

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#6 · Score 340

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?

84% +33.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#7 · Score 313

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $268 Week of May 11 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $268 Week of May 11 2026?

100% +30.9%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $268 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#8 · Score 269

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of May 11 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of May 11 2026?

100% +26.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#9 · Score 263

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 Week of May 11 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 Week of May 11 2026?

28% -26.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#10 · Score 238

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 11 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 11 2026?

87% +23.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#11 · Score 224

NFLX $80 Low Probability Dips 网飞触及80美元低点概率下降

13% -22.0%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in May?


The probability of Netflix hitting $80 in May decreased by 22.0% to 13%, driven by market confidence in its pricing strategy and content investment. Investors appear to be shrugging off the Texas AG privacy lawsuit. 网飞在5月触及80美元的概率下降了22.0%至13%,这主要得益于市场对其定价策略和内容投资的信心。投资者似乎对德州总检察长的隐私诉讼不以为然。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netflix's new $20 ad-free standard plan signals ARPU focus.
  • Reminder of $135 billion content spend over past decade.
  • Market downplays immediate impact of Texas AG privacy lawsuit.
  • 网飞新的20美元无广告标准套餐预示ARPU增长。
  • 过去十年超1350亿美元内容投入的提醒。
  • 市场淡化德州总检察长隐私诉讼的即时影响。
This movement reflects investor confidence in Netflix's ability to maintain its stock price despite legal challenges and evolving streaming economics. 这一变化反映了投资者对网飞在法律挑战和流媒体经济演变下维持股价能力的信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Netflix's strategic price hikes and vast content library will prevent a significant stock decline. 网飞的战略性提价和庞大内容库将阻止股价大幅下跌。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Legal challenges and subscriber sensitivity to price increases could still push NFLX lower. 法律挑战和用户对涨价的敏感性仍可能导致网飞股价走低。

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500
#12 · Score 223

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of May 11 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of May 11 2026?

26% -22.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#13 · Score 204

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?

48% -20.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#14 · Score 183

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca

71% -18.0%

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#15 · Score 169

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

34% +16.5%

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#16 · Score 133

10Y Yield Surge: 4.5% Before 2027? 十年期国债收益率:2027年前达4.5%?

86% +13.0%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?


The probability of the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.5% before 2027 surged to 86%, reflecting increased market conviction. This sharp 13% rise suggests growing expectations for persistent inflation and a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment. 十年期美国国债收益率在2027年前达到4.5%的概率飙升至86%,市场信心显著增强。这一13%的急剧上升反映出市场对通胀持续和利率“更高更久”预期的加剧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Robust US economic growth data (e.g., strong jobs reports)
  • Persistent inflation pressures exceeding Fed targets
  • Federal Reserve's 'higher for longer' rate stance
  • 美国经济数据强劲(如就业报告)
  • 通胀压力持续高于美联储目标
  • 美联储维持“更高更久”利率立场
A sustained 4.5% 10-year yield impacts borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, influencing mortgage rates, corporate debt, and government financing. It also reflects underlying economic strength or persistent inflationary challenges. 十年期国债收益率持续在4.5%将影响企业和消费者的借贷成本,进而影响抵押贷款、企业债务和政府融资。它也反映了潜在的经济实力或持续的通胀挑战。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong economic growth and sticky inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates, pushing long-term yields up. 经济持续强劲增长和顽固通胀将迫使美联储维持高利率,推高长期收益率。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An economic slowdown or unexpected disinflation could prompt Fed rate cuts, preventing the 10-year yield from reaching 4.5%. 经济放缓或意外通缩可能促使美联储降息,阻止十年期收益率达到4.5%。

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500
#17 · Score 108

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

52% -10.5%

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#18 · Score 95

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

60% -9.0%

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#19 · Score 94

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?

64% +9.0%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#20 · Score 89

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

18% +8.5%

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#21 · Score 89

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?

38% -8.5%

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?


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500
#22 · Score 86

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of May 11 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of May 11 2026?

7% -8.2%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of May 11 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#23 · Score 84

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?

86% +8.0%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#24 · Score 74

Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed rate hike in 2026?

28% +7.0%

Fed rate hike in 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#25 · Score 74

Bitcoin $84K Target Fades 比特币8.4万美元目标渺茫

1% -6.9%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?


The probability of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 by May 13 has plummeted to 1%, reflecting a strong market consensus against a rapid price surge. This sharp decline is primarily driven by Bitcoin's current price trajectory and broader macroeconomic headwinds. 比特币在5月13日前达到8.4万美元的概率已骤降至1%,反映市场普遍认为短期内难以实现大幅上涨。这一急剧下降主要受比特币当前价格走势和宏观经济逆风影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's current price far below $84,000
  • Lack of immediate strong bullish catalysts
  • Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., Fed rates)
  • Recent market consolidation and profit-taking
  • 比特币现价远低于8.4万美元
  • 缺乏即时强劲看涨催化剂
  • 宏观经济不确定性持续(如美联储利率)
  • 近期市场盘整及获利了结
This market indicates a significant shift in short-term bullish expectations for Bitcoin, suggesting traders anticipate continued price consolidation or further downside rather than a rapid ascent. 该市场表明比特币短期看涨预期显著转变,交易者预计价格将继续盘整或进一步下跌,而非迅速上涨。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unexpected positive macroeconomic shift or massive institutional capital inflow could trigger a rapid price surge. 意外的宏观经济利好或大规模机构资金流入可能引发价格飙升。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin's current price action make the $84,000 target highly improbable. 宏观经济持续不确定性及比特币当前走势使8.4万美元目标极不可能。

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500
#26 · Score 74

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

26% -7.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 73

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

56% -7.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 69

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

56% +6.5%

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 68

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of May 11 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of May 11

16% -6.5%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of May 11 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 66

Will GameStop acquire eBay? Will GameStop acquire eBay?

16% -6.0%

Will GameStop acquire eBay?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。