AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 26, 2026 06:27 UTC
#1 · Score 828

Houthis' Red Sea Attacks Drive Probability to 100% 胡塞武装袭击致航运目标概率达100%

100% +82.5%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?

The probability of Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 24, 2026, surged to 100% following confirmed attacks on Saudi oil tankers. Reports of Iran supplying IRGC commanders and missile gear to Houthis further solidified this outlook. 胡塞武装成功袭击沙特油轮的报道，使到2026年7月24日其成功打击航运的概率飙升至100%。伊朗向胡塞武装提供导弹装备和指挥官的报告进一步证实了这一趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Houthis claim strikes on Saudi oil tankers
  • Iran supplies Houthis with missile gear
  • Trump warns US will hit Houthis
  • US carries out 12th night of strikes
  • 胡塞武装声称袭击沙特油轮
  • 伊朗向胡塞武装提供导弹装备
  • 特朗普警告美国将打击胡塞武装
  • 美国连续12晚对胡塞武装进行打击
This indicates a severe and escalating threat to global shipping lanes, particularly in the Red Sea. It highlights the expanding regional conflict and potential for significant economic disruption. 这表明全球航运，特别是红海地区，面临严重且不断升级的威胁。它凸显了地区冲突的扩大以及潜在的重大经济中断。
Vol 24h: $5,716 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Ongoing Iranian military support and Houthi operational resilience make future successful attacks by July 2026 highly probable. 伊朗持续的军事支持和胡塞武装的作战韧性使2026年7月前成功袭击几乎不可避免。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A decisive international military response could significantly degrade Houthi capabilities, preventing future successful targeting. 国际社会采取果断军事行动可能大幅削弱胡塞武装能力，阻止未来成功袭击。
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500
#2 · Score 793

Houthi Attacks Surge, Shipping Hit 胡塞武装袭击航运激增

100% +79.0%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?

The probability of Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 25, 2026, surged to 100% following a confirmed breakdown of a ceasefire and a significant increase in attacks. Recent reports indicate Houthis have hit at least 13 tanker ships, prompting Saudi military strikes and US warnings. 胡塞武装成功袭击航运的概率飙升至100%，此前停火协议破裂，袭击事件显著增加。最新报道显示，胡塞武装已袭击至少13艘油轮，引发沙特军事打击和美国警告。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Confirmed attacks on 13 tanker ships
  • US-Yemen ceasefire breakdown
  • Houthis claim strikes on Saudi tankers
  • Saudi military retaliates against Houthis
  • 确认袭击13艘油轮
  • 美也门停火协议破裂
  • 胡塞武装声称袭击沙特油轮
  • 沙特军事报复胡塞目标
Continued Houthi attacks disrupt global shipping lanes, escalate regional tensions involving major powers, and pose significant economic risks to oil and trade routes. 胡塞武装持续袭击扰乱全球航运，加剧地区紧张局势，并对石油贸易路线构成重大经济风险。
Vol 24h: $7,839 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated capability and intent, making future successful targeting by 2026 virtually certain. 胡塞武装已多次展示袭击能力和意图，2026年前成功袭击几乎确定。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense international military intervention could severely degrade Houthi capabilities, preventing future successful attacks. 国际军事干预可能严重削弱胡塞能力，阻止未来成功袭击。
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500
#3 · Score 673

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31,

100% +66.8%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $31,246 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#4 · Score 501

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

100% +49.8%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

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Vol 24h: $9,679 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 497

Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

99% +49.4%

Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

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Vol 24h: $6,151 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 394

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?

30% -39.0%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?

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Vol 24h: $24,908 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 334

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 11PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 11PM ET

84% +33.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 11PM ET

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Vol 24h: $11,138 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 299

Ethereum Up or Down on July 26? Ethereum Up or Down on July 26?

80% +29.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 26?

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Vol 24h: $10,086 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 295

Bitcoin Downside Risk Surges 比特币下跌风险大增

80% +29.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?

The probability of Bitcoin being down on July 26th surged by 29% to 80%, driven by technical resistance failures and increased selling pressure from miners. KITCO reported Bitcoin's failure to clear $68,000 resistance, while Bitdeer sold all 274.6 BTC mined this week. 比特币在7月26日下跌的概率飙升29%至80%，主要受技术阻力突破失败和矿工抛售压力增加驱动。KITCO报道比特币未能突破68,000美元阻力，同时Bitdeer本周出售了其开采的全部274.6枚比特币。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin failed to clear $68,000 resistance, signaling "bearish warning" per KITCO.
  • Bitdeer sold all 274.6 BTC mined this week, increasing market selling pressure.
  • Elevated dollar on "Fed Rate-Rise Prospects" creates macro headwinds for crypto.
  • 比特币未能突破68,000美元阻力，KITCO发出“看跌警告”。
  • Bitdeer本周出售全部274.6枚比特币，增加市场抛售压力。
  • 美元因“美联储加息前景”保持高位，对加密货币构成宏观阻力。
This significant shift reflects growing market conviction in a short-term Bitcoin price correction, potentially impacting broader crypto sentiment and investor strategies. 这一显著转变反映市场对短期比特币价格回调的信心增强，可能影响更广泛的加密货币情绪和投资者策略。
Vol 24h: $41,655 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Despite current bearish signals, a sudden weakening of the dollar or unexpected positive macro news could reverse the trend. 尽管当前看跌信号强烈，美元意外走弱或宏观利好消息可能逆转趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued technical resistance, sustained miner selling, and hawkish Fed outlook will likely push Bitcoin lower by July 26. 持续的技术阻力、矿工抛售以及美联储鹰派前景将可能在7月26日前推动比特币走低。
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500
#10 · Score 273

Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31? Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?

9% -27.0%

Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,585 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 271

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

30% +26.6%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

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Vol 24h: $491,846 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 259

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

23% -25.4%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

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Vol 24h: $122,600 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 245

Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

8% -24.0%

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $86,264 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 194

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%? Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?

39% +19.1%

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?

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Vol 24h: $1,989 Polymarket ↗
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500
#15 · Score 169

Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 26? Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 26?

0% -16.5%

Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 26?

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Vol 24h: $3,272 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 155

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

38% +15.0%

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $94,705 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 133

Over $2M committed to the TownSquare public sale? Over $2M committed to the TownSquare public sale?

61% +13.0%

Over $2M committed to the TownSquare public sale?

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Vol 24h: $1,817 Polymarket ↗
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500
#18 · Score 125

Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

6% -12.0%

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

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Vol 24h: $151,657 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 124

Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?

94% +12.0%

Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $5,534 Polymarket ↗
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500
#20 · Score 124

Will Cigna Group (CI) beat quarterly earnings? Will Cigna Group (CI) beat quarterly earnings?

80% -12.0%

Will Cigna Group (CI) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $5,114 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 97

Will ARM (ARM) beat quarterly earnings? Will ARM (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

85% -9.3%

Will ARM (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $7,170 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 97

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

100% +9.0%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

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Vol 24h: $1,077,757 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 94

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

16% +9.0%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,331 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 89

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?

76% -8.5%

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?

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Vol 24h: $4,663 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 85

US-Iran Talks Boost Blockade End 美伊谈判提振解除封锁

20% +8.0%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

The probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by July 2026 rose 8% to 20% following reports of US-Iran talks. Former President Trump indicated that "US and Iran are talking" and that making a deal is "smarter" than fighting. 美国宣布在2026年7月31日前结束对伊朗封锁的概率上升8%至20%，此前有报道称美伊正在进行对话。前总统特朗普表示“美伊正在对话”，并认为达成协议比对抗“更明智”。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump confirms US-Iran talks
  • Trump favors deal over conflict
  • Potential diplomatic path emerges
  • 特朗普证实美伊对话
  • 特朗普倾向达成协议
  • 外交途径或将开启
An end to the Iranian blockade would significantly impact global oil markets, regional stability, and US foreign policy in the Middle East. It could de-escalate tensions and open new economic avenues. 解除对伊朗的封锁将对全球石油市场、地区稳定以及美国在中东的外交政策产生重大影响。这可能缓解紧张局势并开辟新的经济途径。
Vol 24h: $118,885 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Diplomatic efforts, especially with potential US leadership change, could rapidly accelerate a deal to lift the blockade. 外交努力，特别是美国领导层可能更迭，可能迅速推动达成解除封锁的协议。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite talks, Iran's current unwillingness to negotiate and ongoing military clashes will prevent any near-term agreement. 尽管有对话，但伊朗目前不愿谈判以及持续的军事冲突将阻碍近期达成协议。
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500
#26 · Score 84

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26? Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?

18% +8.0%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?

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Vol 24h: $22,559 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 84

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20- Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-

42% +8.0%

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $15,899 Polymarket ↗
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500
#28 · Score 84

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o

22% -8.0%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $6,659 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 83

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

37% -8.0%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,916 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 79

Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings? Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?

93% +7.5%

Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $12,156 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 49

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

48% -4.6%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,985 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。