AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 21, 2026 11:22 UTC
#1 · Score 512

Tesla Output Fears Drive $375 Low Certainty 特斯拉产量担忧推高375美元低点确定性

100% +50.9%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting a $375 low by July 2026 jumped to 100% after reports of "Lower Car Output" from its Grünheide plant in 2025. This outlook, combined with "sky-high" Q2 earnings expectations, fueled extreme long-term bearish sentiment. 特斯拉股价在2026年7月20日当周触及375美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前有报道称其格伦海德工厂2025年“汽车产量将下降”。这一产量前景，加上市场对第二季度财报“极高”的预期，加剧了极度看跌的长期情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reported "Lower Car Output" from Tesla's Grünheide plant in 2025.
  • "Sky-high" market expectations for upcoming Q2 earnings.
  • TSLA's stock already down 17% year-to-date in 2026.
  • 特斯拉格伦海德工厂2025年“汽车产量将下降”的报道。
  • 市场对即将公布的第二季度财报抱有“极高”预期。
  • 特斯拉股价在2026年已下跌17%，显示持续疲软。
This signals a fundamental re-evaluation of Tesla's growth prospects, potentially marking a shift from a high-growth tech stock to a mature auto manufacturer. 这表明市场对特斯拉增长前景进行了根本性重新评估，可能标志着其从高增长科技股转向成熟汽车制造商。
Vol 24h: $706 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A significant Q2 earnings beat with strong future production guidance could challenge the current bearish outlook. 强劲的第二季度财报超预期及乐观的未来产量指引，可能扭转当前看跌情绪。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Missing "sky-high" Q2 expectations and confirming production cuts will reinforce the long-term decline. 未能达到“极高”的第二季度预期并确认减产，将巩固长期下跌趋势。
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500
#2 · Score 483

Opendoor Price Surge Confirmed Opendoor股价飙升确认

100% +47.9%

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of July 20 2026?

Opendoor's probability to hit $4.50 surged to 100% this week, driven by market confidence in economic stability. Steady interest rates at 5.00% for money markets, as reported by Forbes on July 20, 2026, signaled a potential peak in the rate cycle, easing concerns for real estate tech. Opendoor股价本周触及4.50美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受市场对经济稳定的信心驱动。福布斯2026年7月20日报道，货币市场利率稳定在5.00%，预示着加息周期可能已见顶，缓解了房地产科技公司的担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes reported high-yield savings rates 'Are Steady'.
  • Money Market Interest Rates held at 5.00% on July 20, 2026.
  • Market interprets interest rate stability as economic certainty.
  • 福布斯报道高收益储蓄利率“保持稳定”。
  • 2026年7月20日货币市场利率维持在5.00%。
  • 市场将利率稳定解读为经济确定性。
This movement indicates investor belief that Opendoor can thrive in a stable, albeit higher, interest rate environment, potentially signaling a broader recovery for the housing sector. 这一走势表明投资者相信Opendoor能在稳定但较高的利率环境中蓬勃发展，可能预示着房地产行业的广泛复苏。
Vol 24h: $2,910 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stable interest rates at 5.00% suggest economic predictability, allowing Opendoor to optimize operations and attract buyers, pushing its stock price higher. 5.00%的稳定利率预示经济可预测性，Opendoor可优化运营并吸引买家，推动股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High interest rates, even if steady, continue to depress housing demand, making Opendoor's business model challenging and limiting upside potential. 即使利率稳定，高利率仍会抑制住房需求，使Opendoor的商业模式面临挑战，限制上涨潜力。
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500
#3 · Score 474

Bitcoin Price Surge Imminent 比特币价格即将飙升

100% +46.9%

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 20-26?

Bitcoin's probability of reaching $66,000 by July 26 surged to 100% in 24 hours, driven by overwhelming bullish sentiment. Recent reports highlight expectations of 'price explosions' and aggressive long-term price targets. 比特币在7月26日前达到66,000美元的概率在24小时内飙升至100%，主要受强劲看涨情绪驱动。近期报道强调了“价格爆炸”预期和激进的长期价格目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes report on 'Bitcoin Price Explosions'
  • Aggressive $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction
  • Increased 'Spectacular' bets on Bitcoin
  • 福布斯报道“比特币价格爆炸”
  • 激进的比特币20万美元预测
  • 比特币“惊人”押注显著增加
This extreme confidence signals a potential significant short-term rally for Bitcoin, impacting broader crypto market sentiment and investor strategies. 这种极度自信预示着比特币短期内可能出现大幅上涨，影响更广泛的加密市场情绪和投资者策略。
Vol 24h: $17,834 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelming bullish sentiment and high-profile predictions of 'price explosions' will easily push Bitcoin past $66,000 this week. 压倒性的看涨情绪和“价格爆炸”的高调预测将轻松推动比特币本周突破66,000美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current optimism, unforeseen market volatility or profit-taking could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $66,000. 尽管目前市场乐观，但不可预见的市场波动或获利回吐可能阻止比特币达到66,000美元。
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500
#4 · Score 430

Economic Signals Boost Ethereum Up Probability 经济信号提振以太坊上涨概率

92% +42.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 21?

Ethereum's 'Up' probability surged by 42.5% to 92% for July 21, driven by a perceived shift in broader economic sentiment. Stable money market interest rates and rising commodity prices likely contributed to increased risk appetite. 以太坊在7月21日“上涨”的概率飙升42.5%至92%，这主要受宏观经济情绪转变的推动。稳定的货币市场利率和上涨的大宗商品价格可能增加了市场风险偏好。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes reported July 21, 2026 money market interest rates holding at 5.00%.
  • Successful Farming noted soybeans up 21¢ and corn up 5½¢ on July 20, 2026.
  • 《福布斯》报道2026年7月21日货币市场利率维持在5.00%。
  • 《成功农业》指出2026年7月20日大豆上涨21美分，玉米上涨5.5美分。
This significant shift indicates strong market belief in Ethereum's short-term appreciation, potentially reflecting broader investor confidence in risk assets amidst economic signals. 这一显著变化表明市场对以太坊短期上涨的强烈信心，可能反映了在经济信号下投资者对风险资产的普遍信心。
Vol 24h: $52,600 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Stable interest rates and rising commodity prices suggest an inflationary environment or increased risk appetite, benefiting Ethereum as a growth asset. 稳定的利率和上涨的大宗商品价格预示通胀环境或风险偏好增加，利好以太坊作为增长型资产。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The lack of direct crypto-specific news makes the rally potentially speculative, vulnerable to reversal if economic signals weaken. 缺乏直接的加密货币特定消息使得此次上涨可能具有投机性，若经济信号减弱则易于逆转。
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500
#5 · Score 418

AAPL $340 Target Probability Plunges 苹果340美元目标概率骤降

15% -41.5%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of July 20 2026?

Apple's probability of hitting $340 by July 2026 plummeted to 15% after a 41.5% drop, primarily driven by market re-evaluation of persistent macro-economic conditions. This re-evaluation likely stems from Forbes reporting steady high-yield savings rates. 苹果公司股价在2026年7月达到340美元的概率骤降41.5%至15%，主要受市场对宏观经济状况持续评估的影响。这可能源于《福布斯》报道高收益储蓄利率保持稳定。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes reports steady high-yield savings rates, signaling persistent macro headwinds.
  • Market discounts Apple's AI advantage despite CNBC's Wall Street upgrade.
  • Investor re-evaluation of aggressive growth targets in current economic climate.
  • 《福布斯》报道高收益储蓄利率稳定，宏观逆风持续。
  • 市场对苹果AI优势持谨慎，CNBC升级评级未提振。
  • 投资者重新评估当前经济下激进增长目标。
This movement reflects investor skepticism about aggressive growth targets in a persistent high-interest rate environment, impacting tech sector valuations. 此举反映了投资者对高利率环境下激进增长目标的怀疑，影响科技股估值。
Vol 24h: $1,068 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Apple's anti-capex AI advantage and strong ecosystem growth could still drive significant upside. 苹果的低资本开支AI优势和强大生态系统仍能带来显著上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent high interest rates and a challenging macro environment will suppress growth stock valuations. 持续高利率和挑战性宏观环境将抑制成长股估值。
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500
#6 · Score 395

Bitcoin Up: $200K Target Fuels Rally 比特币上涨：20万美元目标推动反弹

90% +39.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21?

The probability of Bitcoin being up on July 21 surged to 90%, driven by extremely bullish price predictions and geopolitical instability. Headlines like 'Bitcoin Price Prediction Eyes $200,000' and 'US-Iran conflict intensifies' fueled investor confidence. 比特币在7月21日上涨的概率飙升至90%，主要受极度看涨的价格预测和地缘政治不稳定驱动。《比特币价格预测剑指20万美元》和“美伊冲突加剧”等头条新闻提振了投资者信心。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin $200,000 price prediction
  • Forbes' 'Price Explosions' forecast
  • US-Iran conflict intensifies; Dollar drifts
  • AlphaPepe presale nears sell out
  • 比特币20万美元价格预测
  • 福布斯预测“价格爆炸”
  • 美伊冲突加剧；美元走弱
  • AlphaPepe预售接近售罄
This significant probability shift reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against global uncertainties. It suggests a potential decoupling from traditional financial market concerns. 这一显著的概率变化反映了市场对比特币作为价值储存和对冲全球不确定性的信心日益增强。这表明比特币可能与传统金融市场脱钩。
Vol 24h: $86,391 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelmingly bullish predictions like 'Bitcoin Price Prediction Eyes $200,000' and geopolitical instability drive strong demand. 诸如“比特币价格预测剑指20万美元”等极端看涨预测和地缘政治不稳定推动了强劲需求。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 High money market interest rates at 5.00% could still attract capital away from riskier assets like Bitcoin. 5.00%的高货币市场利率仍可能将资金从比特币等风险资产中吸引走。
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500
#7 · Score 344

Bitcoin Certainty Skyrockets 比特币走势确定性飙升

100% +34.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

The prediction market for Bitcoin's movement on July 21, 6:15-6:30 AM ET reached an unprecedented 100% probability, up 34.0% in 24 hours. This extreme conviction likely stems from market participants anticipating specific "Economic Developments" this week, as highlighted by Cryptonews.net, which are now universally expected to drive Bitcoin in a definitive direction. 比特币在7月21日6:15-6:30 ET期间的预测市场概率达到前所未有的100%，24小时内上涨34.0%。这种极度确定性可能源于市场参与者对本周“经济发展”的预期，Cryptonews.net强调这些发展现在普遍预计将推动比特币走向一个明确的方向。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Anticipation of highly impactful "Economic Developments" this week (Cryptonews.net).
  • Market consensus on a definitive, one-directional outcome for Bitcoin.
  • Significant probability shift (+34.0%) indicating new, decisive information.
  • 本周“经济发展”可能产生重大影响的预期 (Cryptonews.net)。
  • 市场对比特币未来走势达成明确的单向共识。
  • 24小时内概率大幅上升 (+34.0%)，表明出现决定性新信息。
Such absolute certainty in a volatile asset's short-term price movement is highly unusual, suggesting either a known, high-impact catalyst or a potential market anomaly. 这种对波动资产短期价格走势的绝对确定性极不寻常，暗示存在已知的高影响力催化剂或潜在的市场异常。
Vol 24h: $31,593 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Overwhelmingly positive "Economic Developments" are universally expected to trigger a guaranteed upward movement for Bitcoin. 普遍积极的“经济发展”预计将引发比特币的确定性上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The 100% probability for "Bitcoin Up" is a market anomaly, or the expected economic impacts are misjudged, leading to a sharp reversal. 比特币上涨100%的概率是市场异常，或对经济影响的判断有误，可能导致急剧逆转。
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500
#8 · Score 338

UK Inflation Outlook Dips 英国通胀预期下降

8% -33.5%

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?

The probability of UK 2026 inflation reaching 4.5% dropped significantly to 8% following news of easing grocery inflation and anticipated political change. Grocery inflation fell to 2.6%, while Andy Burnham's expected premiership by July 2026 signals potential new economic policies. 英国2026年通胀率达到4.5%的概率降至8%，主要受食品通胀放缓及政治变动预期影响。食品通胀降至2.6%，且安迪·伯纳姆预计于2026年7月就任英国首相。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Grocery inflation falls to 2.6%
  • Andy Burnham expected UK PM by July 2026
  • US-Canada tariffs signal global trade tensions
  • 食品通胀降至2.6%
  • 安迪·伯纳姆预计2026年任英首相
  • 美加关税预示全球贸易紧张
This market reflects expectations for the UK's long-term economic stability and the potential impact of future government policies on purchasing power. 该市场反映了对英国长期经济稳定性的预期，以及未来政府政策对购买力的潜在影响。
Vol 24h: $2,610 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A new UK government under Andy Burnham implements significant fiscal stimulus, or global supply shocks reignite price pressures. 新任英国政府推行大规模财政刺激，或全球供应冲击再次推高物价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued disinflationary trends, like falling grocery inflation, persist, coupled with a global economic slowdown. 持续的通缩趋势，如食品通胀下降，加上全球经济放缓。
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500
#9 · Score 333

Mexico GDP Growth Outlook Dips 墨西哥GDP增长前景黯淡

8% -33.0%

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%?

The probability for Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth reaching 2.5% plummeted to 8% following concerns over the USMCA trade agreement. "Annual reviews of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement" are creating significant uncertainty for Mexico's economic future. 墨西哥2026年第二季度GDP增长达到2.5%的可能性骤降至8%，主要受USMCA贸易协定不确定性影响。“美墨加贸易协定年度审查”正在为墨西哥经济未来带来显著不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • USMCA trade agreement uncertainty
  • Potential $60B U.S. ag export risk
  • Broader global lowered growth estimates
  • USMCA贸易协定不确定性
  • 美国农产品出口面临风险
  • 全球经济增长预期普遍下调
Uncertainty surrounding key trade agreements like USMCA can deter foreign investment and disrupt supply chains, directly impacting Mexico's economic stability and growth trajectory. 关键贸易协定（如USMCA）的不确定性可能阻碍外国投资并扰乱供应链，直接影响墨西哥的经济稳定和增长轨迹。
Vol 24h: $2,472 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong U.S. demand and nearshoring trends could boost Mexican manufacturing and exports, offsetting trade concerns. 强劲的美国需求和近岸外包趋势可能提振墨西哥制造业和出口，抵消贸易担忧。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 USMCA review uncertainty and global economic slowdown will likely suppress investment and trade, hindering Mexico's growth. USMCA审查不确定性及全球经济放缓将抑制投资和贸易，阻碍墨西哥经济增长。
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500
#10 · Score 333

EWY Hits $163 Amidst KOSPI Drop EWY触及163美元，KOSPI下跌

100% +33.0%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $163 Week of July 20 2026?

South Korea ETF (EWY) probability surged to 100% for hitting $163 this week, despite the Kospi dropping nearly 5% on July 20, 2026, due to AI stock swoons. This indicates EWY likely reached its high early in the week, possibly driven by an initial rebound in global chip companies. 尽管7月20日KOSPI因AI股暴跌近5%，韩国ETF (EWY) 触及163美元的概率仍飙升至100%。这表明EWY可能在本周初已达到高点，或受全球芯片公司初步反弹推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • EWY likely hit $163 early week.
  • Global chip companies saw upward swing.
  • KOSPI drop occurred after EWY's high.
  • EWY本周初可能已触及163美元。
  • 全球芯片公司出现向上反弹。
  • KOSPI下跌发生在EWY高点之后。
This movement highlights the volatility of tech-heavy markets like South Korea, where sector-specific movements can diverge from overall index performance within a short timeframe. 此次波动凸显了韩国等科技密集型市场的剧烈不稳定性，特定行业走势可能在短时间内与整体指数表现背离。
Vol 24h: $2,270 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 EWY already touched $163 early in the week, fulfilling the market condition despite subsequent KOSPI decline. EWY本周初已触及163美元，尽管KOSPI随后下跌，但市场条件已满足。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The significant KOSPI drop (nearly 5%) due to AI stock swoon signals strong downward pressure, making sustained levels above $163 challenging. KOSPI因AI股暴跌近5%，显示出强劲下行压力，EWY难以维持163美元以上水平。
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500
#11 · Score 313

Micron Hits $840 on Automotive Deals 美光汽车存储协议推高股价至$840

100% +30.9%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $840 Week of July 20 2026?

Micron Technology's probability of hitting $840 by July 20, 2026, surged to 100% following news of securing long-term automotive memory deals with seven major partners including Qualcomm and Hyundai Mobis. This significant business expansion, announced on July 20, 2026, likely pushed the stock past the target. 美光科技股价在2026年7月20日达到840美元的概率飙升至100%，此前宣布与高通、现代摩比斯等七家主要合作伙伴签署了长期汽车存储协议。这一重大的业务扩张，于2026年7月20日公布，很可能推动股价突破了目标。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Micron signs seven long-term automotive memory deals
  • Strong demand for AI and data center memory
  • Broader semiconductor sector rally, Nasdaq climbs
  • 美光签署七项长期汽车存储协议
  • AI和数据中心存储需求强劲
  • 半导体板块普涨，纳斯达克指数攀升
These long-term deals secure future revenue streams and solidify Micron's position in the critical, growing automotive memory market. 这些长期协议确保了美光未来的收入来源，并巩固了其在关键且不断增长的汽车存储市场的地位。
Vol 24h: $3,202 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued strong demand for AI/automotive memory and successful execution of new deals will sustain growth. AI/汽车存储需求持续强劲，新协议成功执行将支撑股价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A broader market correction or increased competition could challenge the $840 valuation. 市场大幅回调或竞争加剧可能对840美元的估值构成挑战。
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500
#12 · Score 298

COIN 2026 Target Surges Amid Long-Term Optimism COIN 2026目标价飙升，长期乐观

93% +29.5%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of Coinbase (COIN) hitting $165 by July 20, 2026, surged by 29.5% to 93%, indicating strong long-term investor confidence. This movement occurred despite prediction markets suggesting Coinbase's Q2 trading volume may fall short of expectations, as reported by CNBC. Coinbase (COIN) 在2026年7月20日前触及165美元的概率飙升29.5%至93%，显示出投资者对长期前景的强烈信心。尽管CNBC报道预测市场认为Coinbase第二季度交易量可能不及预期，但这一上涨依然发生。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Market discounts Coinbase's Q2 trading volume shortfall (CNBC).
  • Focus shifts to Coinbase's long-term growth potential.
  • Steady 2026 high-yield savings rates imply stable economy (Forbes).
  • 市场消化Coinbase二季度交易量不及预期（CNBC）。
  • 市场焦点转向Coinbase的长期增长潜力。
  • 2026年高收益储蓄利率稳定预示经济稳定（Forbes）。
This movement highlights how prediction markets can differentiate between short-term operational challenges and long-term strategic outlook for Coinbase, especially in the volatile crypto sector. 这一走势凸显了预测市场如何区分短期运营挑战与Coinbase的长期战略前景，尤其是在波动性大的加密货币领域。
Vol 24h: $2,112 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong long-term crypto adoption and Coinbase's market position will drive its stock past $165 by July 2026. 强劲的长期加密货币采用和Coinbase的市场地位将推动其股价在2026年7月前突破165美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Short-term trading volume shortfalls and potential regulatory headwinds could hinder Coinbase reaching $165 by 2026. 短期交易量不足和潜在的监管阻力可能阻碍Coinbase在2026年达到165美元。
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500
#13 · Score 293

MSFT Lawsuit Drives $390 Low Certainty 微软诉讼推高触及390美元低点确定性

100% +28.9%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of July 20 2026?

Microsoft's stock is now 100% predicted to hit a $390 low during the week of July 20, 2026, primarily driven by a class-action lawsuit filed on July 19, 2026, alleging investor harm. This legal action significantly increased the probability of a sharp price decline. 微软股价在2026年7月20日当周触及390美元低点的预测概率已升至100%，主要原因是2026年7月19日针对微软提起的集体诉讼，指控其损害投资者利益。这一法律行动显著增加了股价大幅下跌的可能性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Class-action lawsuit filed against MSFT
  • Allegations of investor harm in lawsuit
  • Lawsuit filed just before target week
  • 针对微软提起的集体诉讼
  • 诉讼指控损害投资者利益
  • 诉讼恰在目标周前夕提出
A major class-action lawsuit against a tech giant like Microsoft can severely damage investor confidence and lead to substantial stock price volatility, impacting its market valuation. 针对微软这样的科技巨头提起的重大集体诉讼，可能严重损害投资者信心，并导致股价大幅波动，影响其市场估值。
Vol 24h: $2,250 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The class-action lawsuit's immediate impact and potential liabilities ensure MSFT will drop below $390. 集体诉讼的即时影响和潜在赔偿责任，确保微软股价将跌破390美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Microsoft's robust financials or a swift, favorable settlement could prevent the stock from hitting the $390 low. 微软强劲的财务状况或迅速达成有利和解，可能阻止股价跌至390美元低点。
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500
#14 · Score 269

Russia Rate Cut Odds Surge 俄罗斯降息概率飙升

58% +26.5%

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

The probability of the Bank of Russia decreasing its key rate after the July meeting surged by 26.5% to 58%, driven by recent reports indicating a global inflation cool-down. Specifically, an ECB survey showed moderating wage demands and selling price growth, while the ABF Journal noted an "Inflation Cool-Down" beating back rate-hike scares. 俄罗斯央行在七月会议后降息的关键利率概率飙升26.5%至58%，主要受全球通胀降温的最新报告驱动。具体而言，欧洲央行调查显示工资需求和销售价格增长放缓，而ABF Journal指出“通胀降温”打消了加息担忧。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • ECB survey shows moderating wage demands and selling price growth.
  • Reports of a global "Inflation Cool-Down" easing rate-hike fears.
  • 欧洲央行调查显示工资需求及销售价格增长放缓。
  • 全球“通胀降温”报告缓解了市场对加息的担忧。
A rate cut by the Bank of Russia could signal confidence in stabilizing inflation and potentially stimulate economic growth, impacting investment and consumer spending within Russia. 俄罗斯央行降息可能预示其对通胀稳定的信心，并有望刺激俄罗斯国内的投资和消费支出。
Vol 24h: $11,302 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Global inflation cooling, evidenced by the ECB survey and other reports, provides the Bank of Russia flexibility to decrease rates. 全球通胀降温，如欧洲央行调查所示，为俄罗斯央行放松货币政策提供了空间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued hawkish stance from major central banks like the Fed, as bond traders see inflation fight continuing, could limit Russia's easing room. 债券交易员认为美联储将继续抗击通胀，主要央行的鹰派立场可能限制俄罗斯的降息空间。
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500
#15 · Score 263

AAPL $336 Target Probability Drops 苹果七月触及336美元概率下降

59% -25.9%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in July?

The probability of Apple (AAPL) hitting $336 in July dropped by 25.9% to 59%, despite the stock reaching a new historic all-time high of $327.50 on July 15, 2026. This decline suggests traders anticipate profit-taking or consolidation after its recent surge. 尽管苹果(AAPL)股价在2026年7月15日创下327.50美元的历史新高，但其七月触及336美元的概率仍下降了25.9%至59%。这表明交易者预计股价在近期飙升后将出现获利回吐或盘整。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AAPL hit new all-time high of $327.50 on July 15.
  • Market anticipates profit-taking after 4% surge.
  • Concerns about short-term overvaluation post-rally.
  • 苹果股价7月15日创327.50美元历史新高。
  • 市场预期股价在4%涨幅后将获利回吐。
  • 近期大涨后，短期估值过高担忧浮现。
Apple's performance significantly impacts global tech indices and investor confidence, reflecting broader market sentiment towards mega-cap growth stocks. 苹果表现影响全球科技指数和投资者信心，反映市场对巨头成长股的整体情绪。
Vol 24h: $2,450 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong momentum from becoming the world's most valuable company could easily push AAPL the remaining 2.6% to $336 in July. 成为全球市值最高，强劲势头有望助苹果七月突破336美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 After a significant 4% surge to $327.50, profit-taking and consolidation are likely, making the $336 target challenging this month. 股价飙升至327.50美元后，获利回吐和盘整，本月336美元目标难达。
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500
#16 · Score 253

AMZN Low $244 Less Likely 亚马逊触及244美元低点可能性降低

52% -25.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of AMZN hitting a $244 low by July 2026 significantly decreased by 25% as the Nasdaq rose today. This shift reflects broader tech sector strength and easing oil prices, reducing downside risk for Amazon. 亚马逊在2026年7月触及244美元低点的可能性显著下降25%，因纳斯达克指数今日上涨。这一变化反映了科技板块的整体走强以及油价回落，降低了亚马逊的下行风险。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Nasdaq rising today
  • Oil prices easing
  • Iran talks kept alive
  • 纳斯达克指数今日上涨
  • 国际油价有所回落
  • 伊朗谈判得以延续
This movement indicates increased investor confidence in Amazon's resilience and the broader tech market, suggesting a more stable outlook for the company's valuation. 这一走势表明投资者对亚马逊的韧性及科技大盘的信心增强，预示公司估值前景更趋稳定。
Vol 24h: $954 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong tech sector performance and easing geopolitical tensions reduce the likelihood of AMZN falling to $244. 科技板块表现强劲且地缘政治紧张局势缓和，降低了亚马逊跌至244美元的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense e-commerce competition from players like Temu could still pressure AMZN's margins and valuation. 来自Temu等电商的激烈竞争仍可能挤压亚马逊利润率和估值。
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500
#17 · Score 253

HOOD $100 Target Hit on New Business Outlook HOOD 100美元目标达成，新业务驱动

100% +24.9%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of Robinhood Markets (HOOD) hitting $100 by July 2026 surged to 100% following a significant analyst upgrade. Bernstein projected Robinhood's prediction markets could become a $1.7 billion business, directly impacting valuation. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) 在2026年7月达到100美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受分析师大幅上调预期的推动。Bernstein预测Robinhood的预测市场业务可能达到17亿美元，直接影响估值。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bernstein's $1.7B prediction market revenue forecast
  • Robinhood's self-built Layer 2 blockchain development
  • Bernstein预测市场业务达17亿美元
  • Robinhood自建L2区块链技术创新
This indicates strong analyst confidence in Robinhood's diversification into new high-growth areas, potentially transforming its revenue profile and market valuation. 这表明分析师对Robinhood多元化进入高增长领域充满信心，可能重塑其收入结构和市场估值。
Vol 24h: $2,329 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bernstein's $1.7B prediction market revenue projection and L2 innovation provide a clear path to $100+ valuation. Bernstein预测市场17亿美元营收及L2创新，为股价突破100美元提供明确路径。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Execution risks for new ventures and potential regulatory hurdles could hinder growth, preventing the $100 target. 新业务执行风险和潜在监管障碍可能阻碍增长，导致无法达到100美元目标。
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500
#18 · Score 229

Japan CPI Outlook Rises 日本核心CPI展望上升

62% +22.5%

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?

The probability of Japan's core-core CPI increasing by 2.0-2.4% in 2026 surged by 22.5% to 62%. This movement was primarily driven by rising global oil prices and a recovery in Japanese stock markets. 日本2026年核心-核心CPI增长2.0-2.4%的概率飙升22.5%至62%。这一变化主要受全球油价上涨和日本股市从AI抛售中复苏的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Global oil prices continue climbing (AP News)
  • Japanese stock market recovers from AI sell-offs
  • Robust consumer spending indicated by tourism
  • 全球油价持续攀升（美联社）
  • 日本股市从AI抛售中复苏
  • 旅游业显示消费支出强劲
This indicates growing market confidence in Japan achieving its inflation target, potentially influencing future Bank of Japan monetary policy decisions. Sustained inflation within this range is crucial for economic stability. 这表明市场对日本实现通胀目标越来越有信心，可能影响日本央行未来的货币政策决策。将通胀维持在此区间对经济稳定至关重要。
Vol 24h: $3,410 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent global energy price increases and robust domestic demand will push Japan's core-core CPI into the target range. 全球能源价格持续上涨和强劲的国内需求将推动日本核心-核心CPI进入目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Global economic slowdowns or unexpected yen appreciation could dampen inflationary pressures, keeping CPI below 2.0%. 全球经济放缓或日元意外升值可能抑制通胀压力，使CPI低于2.0%。
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500
#19 · Score 214

Bitcoin Up Probability Surges 比特币上涨概率飙升

72% +21.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by July 21, 6 AM ET, surged by 21% to 72%, primarily driven by a Forbes report predicting "price explosions" for Bitcoin. This optimism is fueled by a $27.9 trillion gold prediction, suggesting spectacular bets on its future value. 比特币在7月21日早上6点（ET）前上涨的概率飙升21%至72%，主要受福布斯一篇预测比特币将出现“价格爆炸”的报道驱动。这一乐观情绪源于对27.9万亿美元黄金预测的联动，暗示对比特币未来价值的巨大押注。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Forbes report predicts Bitcoin "price explosions."
  • $27.9 trillion gold prediction fuels Bitcoin bets.
  • Cryptonews highlights busy week for crypto events.
  • 福布斯报道预测比特币“价格爆炸”。
  • 27.9万亿美元黄金预测助推比特币。
  • 加密新闻预告本周加密事件繁忙。
This movement indicates strong investor confidence in Bitcoin's short-term appreciation, potentially signaling broader institutional interest and capital inflow into the crypto market. 这一走势表明投资者对短期内比特币升值抱有强烈信心，可能预示着更广泛的机构兴趣和资金流入加密市场。
Vol 24h: $21,555 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Forbes' "price explosions" prediction, linked to a $27.9 trillion gold forecast, strongly suggests significant upward momentum for Bitcoin. 福布斯将比特币与27.9万亿美元黄金预测挂钩，预示其将出现“价格爆炸”，提供强劲上涨动力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite bullish headlines, broader economic developments or unexpected altcoin events could introduce volatility and downward pressure. 尽管有看涨消息，但宏观经济发展或突发山寨币事件可能带来波动和下行压力。
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500
#20 · Score 213

Meta Legal Wins Reduce Downside Risk Meta法律胜利降低下行风险

51% -21.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $630 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of Meta Platforms (META) hitting a $630 low by July 2026 dropped 21% to 51%, primarily driven by Meta's significant legal victories. A federal judge dismissed investor allegations of a pump-and-dump scam, and another judge allowed Meta to proceed with layoffs. Meta Platforms (META)在2026年7月触及630美元低点的可能性下降了21%至51%，主要原因是Meta赢得了多项重要法律诉讼。联邦法官驳回了投资者对其“拉高出货”骗局广告的指控，另一位法官也允许Meta继续裁员。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta freed from pump-and-dump scam allegations.
  • Judge permits Meta layoffs despite AI discrimination suit.
  • Nasdaq's rise signals broader tech sector strength.
  • Meta摆脱“拉高出货”骗局指控。
  • 法官允许Meta裁员，无视AI歧视诉讼。
  • 纳斯达克上涨，显示科技板块走强。
These legal and operational wins significantly reduce Meta's financial and reputational risks, bolstering investor confidence in its future valuation. 这些法律和运营上的胜利显著降低了Meta的财务和声誉风险，增强了投资者对其未来估值的信心。
Vol 24h: $2,310 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 A severe economic downturn or new antitrust regulations could still significantly depress Meta's stock price. 严重的经济衰退或新的反垄断法规可能大幅压低Meta的股价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Meta's successful legal defenses and strategic cost management reduce downside risk, preventing a sharp stock decline. Meta成功的法律辩护和战略成本管理降低了下行风险，避免股价大幅下跌。
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500
#21 · Score 208

Airbnb Target Probability Dips 爱彼迎目标概率下降

58% -20.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of Airbnb hitting $148 by July 2026 dropped sharply by 20.5% to 58%, likely influenced by a broader re-evaluation of growth stock valuations and the absence of positive company-specific news. This shift suggests investor caution regarding high-growth tech companies. 爱彼迎股价在2026年7月20日当周触及148美元的概率大幅下降20.5%至58%，这可能受到投资者对成长股估值重新评估以及缺乏公司利好消息的影响。此变化暗示投资者对高增长科技公司持谨慎态度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Barron's report on SpaceX's 6-day losing streak, signaling investor caution.
  • Implied investor shift away from high-valuation growth stocks like ABNB.
  • Lack of positive company-specific news for Airbnb to counter market pressures.
  • 《巴伦周刊》报道SpaceX连续六天股价下跌，预示投资者趋于谨慎。
  • 投资者可能转向规避爱彼迎等高估值成长股。
  • 爱彼迎缺乏具体利好消息来抵消市场压力。
This significant probability shift indicates changing investor confidence in ABNB's long-term growth trajectory and the broader travel-tech sector's valuation. 这一显著的概率变化反映了投资者对爱彼迎长期增长前景以及整个旅游科技行业估值的信心正在改变。
Vol 24h: $2,202 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained global travel demand and ABNB's expanding market share could propel its stock above $148. 全球旅游需求持续复苏和爱彼迎市场份额扩大，有望推动股价突破148美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Economic downturns or increased regulatory scrutiny could limit ABNB's growth, keeping its price below $148. 经济下行或监管审查加强可能限制爱彼迎增长，使其股价低于148美元。
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500
#22 · Score 208

Alphabet's AI Chip Boosts Outlook 谷歌AI芯片提振前景

65% -20.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of July 20 2026?

The probability of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hitting a low of $345 by July 2026 dropped by 20.5% to 65%. This decline was primarily driven by news of Alphabet's plan to deploy a new, more efficient chip for its Gemini AI models. 谷歌母公司Alphabet (GOOGL) 在2026年7月前触及345美元低点的可能性下降了20.5%至65%。这一跌幅主要受Alphabet计划部署更高效的Gemini AI模型新芯片的消息驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Alphabet's new efficient AI chip for Gemini models.
  • Anticipation of strong upcoming Alphabet earnings.
  • General recovery and gains across the chip sector.
  • Alphabet为Gemini模型推出高效AI新芯片。
  • 市场对Alphabet即将公布的强劲财报预期。
  • 芯片行业整体复苏并取得涨幅。
This reflects investor confidence in Alphabet's AI strategy and its potential to drive future growth and profitability. It suggests the market perceives reduced downside risk for GOOGL. 这反映了投资者对Alphabet AI战略及其未来增长和盈利潜力的信心。市场认为GOOGL的下行风险有所降低。
Vol 24h: $1,180 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Significant regulatory actions against Google's core businesses or major AI product failures could increase the probability of hitting $345. 针对谷歌核心业务的重大监管行动或AI产品重大失败可能增加触及345美元低点的可能性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued successful AI innovation and robust revenue growth from cloud and advertising will keep GOOGL well above $345. 持续成功的AI创新以及云服务和广告业务的强劲营收增长将使GOOGL股价远高于345美元。
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500
#23 · Score 203

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of July 20 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of July 20

62% +20.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of July 20 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $918 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 175

NVIDIA Surges: Largest Company by July 31? 英伟达飙升：7月31日市值登顶？

72% +17.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

NVIDIA's probability of becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 jumped 17% to 72%, driven by sustained optimism in the AI sector and strong demand for chips. This surge reflects investor confidence in NVIDIA's dominant position despite competitor gains and long-term outlooks. 英伟达在7月31日前成为全球市值最大公司的可能性飙升17%至72%，主要受人工智能领域持续乐观情绪和芯片强劲需求的推动。此次上涨反映了投资者对英伟达主导地位的信心，尽管竞争对手有所进展且长期展望已出。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Robust AI chip demand, seen in AMD's customer confidence.
  • Positive long-term NVIDIA stock outlook from ML algorithms.
  • Significant investment in AI startups like CuspAI.
  • AMD获客户信任，证实AI芯片需求强劲。
  • 机器学习算法预测英伟达长期股价积极。
  • CuspAI等AI初创公司获得巨额投资。
This market reflects the intense competition for AI dominance and the potential for NVIDIA to solidify its position as a global tech leader, impacting broader market valuations. 该市场反映了AI领域激烈的竞争，以及英伟达巩固其全球科技领导者地位的潜力，将影响更广泛的市场估值。
Vol 24h: $87,529 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 NVIDIA's unparalleled AI chip dominance and anticipated strong earnings will drive its market cap past competitors by July 31. 英伟达无与伦比的AI芯片主导地位和预期强劲的财报将使其市值在7月31日前超越竞争对手。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense competition from AMD and a potential cooling of AI-driven trades could prevent NVIDIA from reaching the top spot. 来自AMD的激烈竞争以及AI相关交易可能降温，可能阻止英伟达登顶市值榜首。
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#25 · Score 143

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in July? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in July?

22% -14.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $997 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#26 · Score 134

Anthropic IPO Odds Drop 13% Anthropic IPO概率下跌13%

62% -13.0%

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Anthropic's IPO probability fell 13% to 62% amid rising competitive pressures. News of Chinese AI firm Moonshot's success and renewed interest in OpenAI in secondary markets likely dampened investor enthusiasm. Anthropic的IPO概率下跌13%至62%，主要受竞争加剧影响。中国AI公司月之暗面成功及OpenAI二级市场兴趣回升，可能削弱了投资者热情。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Chinese AI Moonshot's Kimi K3 model success.
  • OpenAI's resurgence in secondary market interest.
  • Frontier AI labs renting compute from competitors.
  • 中国AI月之暗面Kimi K3模型成功。
  • OpenAI二级市场兴趣显著回升。
  • 前沿AI算力租赁模式变化。
This shift reflects increasing competition in the frontier AI space, potentially impacting valuations and IPO timelines for leading firms like Anthropic. It highlights the dynamic nature of the global AI market. 这一变化反映了前沿AI领域竞争日益激烈，可能影响Anthropic等领先公司的估值和IPO时间表，凸显全球AI市场的动态性。
Vol 24h: $7,438 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Final approval of Anthropic's $1.5 billion authors' deal provides stability, clearing a path for a 2026 IPO. Anthropic与作者15亿美元协议最终获批，提供稳定性，为2026年IPO铺平道路。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Intense competition from China's Moonshot and OpenAI's resurgence could delay or complicate Anthropic's IPO before 2027. 中国月之暗面和OpenAI的激烈竞争可能推迟或复杂化Anthropic在2027年前的IPO。
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#27 · Score 133

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on

50% +13.0%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,772 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#28 · Score 124

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus

67% +12.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,568 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#29 · Score 120

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July? Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?

74% -11.7%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,921 Polymarket ↗
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500
#30 · Score 104

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 202 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 202

18% +10.0%

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,396 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。