AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 16, 2026 02:44 UTC
#1 · Score 719

Iran Shipping Attack Probability Soars 伊朗袭击航运概率飙升

94% +71.5%

Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?

The probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping by August 14, 2026, surged to 94% amid heightened US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. This was primarily driven by Iran's declaration of control over the Strait and a dramatic drop in vessel movements. 鉴于美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势加剧，伊朗在2026年8月14日前成功袭击航运的概率飙升至94%。这主要受伊朗宣布控制该海峡以及船只通行量急剧下降的驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran declared Strait of Hormuz "under control" on August 13, 2026.
  • US-Iran tensions escalated following Trump's threats.
  • Kpler data showed dramatic drop in Strait shipping traffic.
  • 伊朗于2026年8月13日宣布“控制”霍尔木兹海峡。
  • 特朗普威胁后，美伊紧张局势升级。
  • Kpler数据显示海峡航运量急剧下降。
A successful attack would severely disrupt global oil supplies and international trade, potentially triggering a broader regional conflict and significant economic repercussions. 成功袭击将严重扰乱全球石油供应和国际贸易，可能引发更广泛的地区冲突并带来重大的经济影响。
Vol 24h: $17,902 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran's explicit claim of control and observed shipping disruption strongly indicate an imminent targeting action. 伊朗明确宣称控制权和航运中断迹象强烈预示即将采取袭击行动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 International diplomatic efforts or fear of severe retaliation could still deter Iran from actual military action. 国际外交努力或对严厉报复的担忧仍可能阻止伊朗采取实际军事行动。
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500
#2 · Score 489

Solana Price Stabilizes, Range Certainty Solana价格稳定，区间确定

100% +48.5%

Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on August 16?

Solana's price has reached 100% probability of being between $70 and $80 on August 16, driven by its consistent trading around $75.71. The token has held within a narrow $74.52–$75.50 band for three weeks, signaling strong stability within the target range. Solana价格在8月16日介于70至80美元之间的概率已达100%，主要驱动因素是其持续在75.71美元附近交易。该代币已在74.52至75.50美元的窄幅区间内盘整三周，显示出目标区间内的强劲稳定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Solana price holding at $75.71.
  • Three weeks of narrow $74.52–$75.50 range.
  • Absence of volatility outside $70-$80.
  • Solana价格稳定在75.71美元。
  • 三周内窄幅波动于74.52-75.50美元。
  • 价格未出现脱离70-80美元的波动。
This market reflects investor confidence in Solana's short-term price stability, potentially indicating a mature phase for the asset before major economic data releases. 该市场反映了投资者对Solana短期价格稳定性的信心，可能预示着该资产在重要经济数据发布前的成熟阶段。
Vol 24h: $2,760 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Solana's current price stability around $75 persists, ensuring it remains within the $70-$80 range until August 16. Solana当前在75美元附近的稳定性持续，确保其在8月16日前保持在70-80美元区间内。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected market-wide volatility or Solana-specific events could push the price outside the $70-$80 range. 意外的市场波动或Solana特定事件可能导致价格跌出70-80美元区间。
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500
#3 · Score 445

Bitcoin Up Probability Plummets 比特币上涨概率暴跌

6% -44.1%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9PM ET

The probability of Bitcoin being up by August 15, 9 PM ET, has fallen sharply to 6%, driven by reports of Bitcoin slipping towards $62,800 and a failed post-CPI rally. This indicates significant bearish sentiment despite a quiet weekend session. 比特币在8月15日晚9点前上涨的概率已骤降至6%，主要受比特币跌向62,800美元以及CPI后反弹失败的报道驱动。这表明尽管周末市场平静，但看跌情绪显著。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin slipping towards $62,800
  • Post-CPI rally failing to materialize
  • Bitcoin described as "sluggish at $63K"
  • 比特币跌向62,800美元
  • CPI后反弹未能实现
  • 比特币被描述为“在6.3万美元附近表现迟滞”
This sharp drop reflects a significant shift in short-term market sentiment for Bitcoin, potentially signaling further price consolidation or decline. It highlights the impact of failed rallies on investor confidence. 这一急剧下降反映了比特币短期市场情绪的重大转变，可能预示着价格进一步盘整或下跌。它凸显了反弹失败对投资者信心的影响。
Vol 24h: $9,726 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Bitcoin could bounce towards $63,500 if it holds $62,000-$62,500 and RSI recovers from 28.04. 若比特币守住62,000-62,500美元且RSI从28.04回升，价格有望反弹至63,500美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin is slipping towards $62,800 as the post-CPI rally failed to materialize, indicating continued downward pressure. 比特币正跌向62,800美元，因CPI后反弹失败，预示持续下行压力。
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500
#4 · Score 298

Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026? Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?

78% +29.5%

Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?

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Vol 24h: $793 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 199

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

30% -19.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

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Vol 24h: $5,536 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 188

ETH Range Probability Plunges 以太坊区间概率骤降

8% -18.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on August 16?

The probability of Ethereum's price staying between $1,900 and $2,000 by August 16th plummeted to 8% due to rising selling pressure. Market analysis projects a Q3 price range capping below $2,000, increasing downside risk. 以太坊价格在8月16日维持在1900美元至2000美元区间的概率骤降至8%，主要受8月份交易所抛售压力增加影响。市场分析预测第三季度价格区间上限低于2000美元，增加了下行风险。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rising selling pressure across exchanges in August.
  • Projected Q3 price range of $1800-$1960.
  • Strong resistance identified at $1,980-$2,000.
  • 8月份交易所抛售压力上升。
  • 第三季度价格预测区间为$1800-$1960。
  • 在$1,980-$2,000面临强劲阻力。
This movement reflects increased market uncertainty regarding Ethereum's short-term price stability and its ability to maintain key support levels. 这一变化反映了市场对以太坊短期价格稳定性和维持关键支撑位能力的担忧加剧。
Vol 24h: $1,645 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Institutional demand from ETF buying and record network activity could help ETH hold $1,900 and push higher. ETF购买带来的机构需求和创纪录的网络活动可能帮助以太坊守住$1,900并走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Rising selling pressure and a Q3 price range capping at $1,960 suggest ETH may fall below $1,900. 抛售压力上升和第三季度价格上限$1,960表明以太坊可能跌破$1,900。
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500
#7 · Score 158

Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?

74% +15.5%

Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?

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Vol 24h: $1,383 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 150

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?

18% +14.6%

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?

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Vol 24h: $25,036 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 148

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative? Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?

18% -14.5%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?

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Vol 24h: $1,799 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 143

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15 Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15

26% -14.0%

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,381 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 143

Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,0 Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,0

24% +14.0%

Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $638 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 133

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

28% +13.0%

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

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Vol 24h: $1,624 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 113

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August?

44% -11.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August?

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Vol 24h: $820 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 98

Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31,

44% +9.5%

Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,471 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 97

Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?

95% +9.3%

Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $3,391 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 95

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16? Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?

6% -9.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $53,154 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 93

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?

36% +9.0%

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $1,204 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
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500
#18 · Score 78

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1 Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1

18% +7.5%

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?

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Vol 24h: $1,777 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#19 · Score 65

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?

53% +6.2%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?

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Vol 24h: $2,164 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 59

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

4% -5.5%

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

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Vol 24h: $10,365 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 58

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

18% -5.5%

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $623 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#22 · Score 54

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

32% +5.0%

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $3,932 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 54

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by Decemb Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by Decemb

20% +5.0%

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 53

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15

3% -5.0%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,397 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 49

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

25% -4.5%

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $10,382 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#26 · Score 49

Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?

10% +4.5%

Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?

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Vol 24h: $3,877 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 48

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

35% -4.5%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $519 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 48

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

11% +4.3%

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $14,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 43

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da

39% +4.0%

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,439 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 41

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

97% +3.8%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,825 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#31 · Score 13

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

6% -1.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,099 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。