AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jun 24, 2026 13:27 UTC
#1 · Score 504

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET


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500
#2 · Score 468

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026?

100% +46.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026?


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500
#3 · Score 346

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026?

27% -34.3%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026?


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500
#4 · Score 318

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June?

56% -31.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#5 · Score 299

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026?

100% +29.4%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026?


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500
#6 · Score 293

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June? Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June?

82% +29.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#7 · Score 274

Hormuz Traffic Surges 霍尔木兹海峡交通量激增

92% +27.0%

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?


The probability of 100+ ships transiting Hormuz surged to 92% due to concrete reports of high daily traffic and increased confidence. A BBC report cited 42 ships crossing on a recent Saturday, significantly boosting expectations for the June 22-28 period. 霍尔木兹海峡100艘以上船只通过的概率飙升至92%,主要得益于高日均通航量的具体报告和信心增强。英国广播公司报道称,近期一个周六有42艘船只通过,显著提升了6月22日至28日期间的市场预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • BBC reported 42 ships transited on a recent Saturday.
  • US efforts opening channels, boosting shipowner confidence.
  • Iran-Oman discussions on Hormuz transit administration.
  • BBC报道称近期周六有42艘船只通过。
  • 美国努力开辟航道,提振船运商信心。
  • 伊朗与阿曼讨论霍尔木兹海峡通行管理协议。
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments, making its stability vital for energy markets and international trade. Increased transit indicates easing geopolitical tensions and improved supply chain reliability. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油和天然气运输的关键咽喉,其稳定对能源市场和国际贸易至关重要。通航量增加表明地缘政治紧张局势缓解及供应链可靠性提升。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Recent high daily transit numbers, like 42 ships on Saturday, strongly suggest 100+ vessels will cross within the week. 近期每日高通航量(如周六42艘)强烈预示本周内将有100艘以上船只通过。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite current optimism, security remains 'hour to hour,' and any unforeseen incident could quickly disrupt transit volumes. 尽管目前乐观,但安全局势仍是“每小时都在变化”,任何突发事件都可能迅速中断通航量。

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500
#8 · Score 258

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026?

83% +25.4%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#9 · Score 238

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 202 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 202

59% -23.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 2026?


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500
#10 · Score 232

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

69% +22.8%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?


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500
#11 · Score 193

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $350? Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $350?

44% +19.0%

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $350?


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500
#12 · Score 184

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O

48% -18.0%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?


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500
#13 · Score 164

Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i

54% -16.0%

Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?


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500
#14 · Score 153

Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $295? Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $295?

39% -15.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $295?


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500
#15 · Score 148

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026? Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026?

11% -14.5%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#16 · Score 143

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026?

66% -14.0%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#17 · Score 138

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June?

24% +13.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June?


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500
#18 · Score 129

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?

20% +12.5%

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?


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500
#19 · Score 123

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?

35% +12.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?


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500
#20 · Score 121

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June?

10% -11.8%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June?


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500
#21 · Score 119

Ethereum Dip Probability Drops 以太坊下跌概率下降

47% -11.5%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28?


The probability of Ethereum dipping to $1,600 by June 28 decreased by 11.5% to 47%. This shift was primarily driven by a bullish $7,000 price target prediction for Ethereum. 以太坊在6月28日前跌至1600美元的概率下降11.5%至47%。这一变化主要受看涨至7000美元的以太坊价格预测驱动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bullish "Ethereum Price Prediction Targets $7,000"
  • AlphaPepe's CEX partnership boosting crypto sentiment
  • Market resilience to Ethereum Foundation's workforce cuts
  • 看涨“以太坊价格预测目标7000美元”
  • AlphaPepe CEX合作提振加密市场情绪
  • 市场对以太坊基金会裁员表现出韧性
This market reflects short-term investor confidence in Ethereum's price stability amidst mixed news, influencing trading strategies. 该市场反映了投资者对以太坊短期价格稳定的信心,影响交易策略。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong price predictions targeting $7,000 outweigh bearish news, making a $1,600 dip highly improbable. 强劲的7000美元价格预测盖过利空消息,使跌至1600美元的可能性极低。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Ethereum Foundation's significant workforce and budget cuts signal underlying issues, increasing dip risk. 以太坊基金会大幅裁员和削减预算预示潜在问题,增加下跌风险。

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500
#22 · Score 115

Coalition Stability Improves, Dissolution Odds Drop 以色列联合政府稳定,解散概率下降

8% -11.0%

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?


The probability of the Israeli parliament dissolving by June 30 plummeted by 11% to 8%, primarily driven by Haredi parties denying a reported deal with Netanyahu for early elections. This denial, coupled with the Knesset's refusal to revote on the state watchdog, signals increased short-term coalition stability. 以色列议会于6月30日前解散的概率骤降11%至8%,主要原因是哈雷迪党派否认了与内塔尼亚胡达成提前选举协议的报道。这一否认,加上议会拒绝就国家审计长职位进行复投,表明短期内联合政府的稳定性增强。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Haredi parties deny election deal
  • Knesset rejects state watchdog revote
  • Haredi boycott seen as negotiation
  • 哈雷迪党派否认选举协议
  • 议会拒绝重投审计长
  • 哈雷迪抵制被视为谈判
The stability of the Israeli government directly impacts policy-making, regional security, and the ongoing judicial overhaul debate. A stable coalition avoids snap elections, allowing the government to pursue its legislative agenda. 以色列政府的稳定性直接影响政策制定、地区安全及正在进行的司法改革辩论。稳定的联合政府可避免提前选举,使其能够推行立法议程。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Haredi parties' unresolved boycott and legislative demands could still escalate into an irreparable coalition crisis, forcing dissolution. 哈雷迪党派未解决的抵制和立法要求可能升级,导致联合政府危机并解散。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Haredi parties' denial of an election deal and the coalition's control over key votes indicate ongoing negotiation, not imminent collapse. 哈雷迪党派否认选举协议,加上联合政府对关键投票的控制,表明正在谈判而非立即解体。

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500
#23 · Score 114

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?

30% -11.0%

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?


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500
#24 · Score 111

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J

25% +10.8%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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500
#25 · Score 108

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap

60% -10.5%

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#26 · Score 95

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026

62% +9.0%

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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500
#27 · Score 95

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?

40% -9.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#28 · Score 86

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

22% -8.0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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500
#29 · Score 85

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

86% +8.0%

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?


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500
#30 · Score 84

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

6% -8.0%

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

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  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
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500
#31 · Score 83

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?

10% -8.0%

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#32 · Score 45

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin

93% -4.1%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。