AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 18, 2026 19:48 UTC
#1 · Score 499

Bitcoin Surges, Upward Momentum Confirmed 比特币飙升，上涨势头确立

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Bitcoin's probability to rise between 12:45 PM-1:00 PM ET surged to 100%, driven by a significant 4% price pump and technical indicators confirming an upward trend. This move is further supported by capital rotation from Ethereum and weakening global risk signals. 比特币在美东时间7月18日12:45-1:00PM上涨的概率飙升至100%，主要受其4%的价格上涨和技术指标确认上涨趋势的推动。以太坊资金轮动和全球风险信号减弱进一步支撑了这一走势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin's 4% price pump
  • Testing its 'fast line' technical level
  • Ethereum dominance rotation warning
  • Weakening global risk signals
  • 比特币价格上涨4%
  • 触及“快速线”技术位
  • 以太坊主导地位轮动预警
  • 全球风险信号减弱
This strong probability indicates significant short-term bullish conviction for Bitcoin, potentially signaling a broader market shift towards risk assets. 这一高概率表明市场对比特币短期看涨信心十足，可能预示着风险资产的更广泛市场转变。
Vol 24h: $35,953 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong technical momentum from Bitcoin's 4% pump and capital rotation from Ethereum underpin continued upward movement. 比特币4%的强劲上涨和以太坊资金轮动支撑其持续上行。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin is nearing a 'key pivot' with 'exit signals building,' suggesting potential for a sharp reversal. 比特币正接近“关键枢轴点”，并出现“退出信号”，预示可能出现急剧逆转。
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500
#2 · Score 499

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12PM ET

100% +49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $36,471 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#3 · Score 323

Syrskyi Ouster Odds Surge Amid Leadership Turmoil 瑟尔斯基去职概率因政局动荡飙升

41% +31.9%

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?

The probability of Oleksandr Syrskyi being out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 2026 jumped significantly following President Zelenskyy's controversial dismissal of popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. This move signals a period of heightened leadership instability within Ukraine's wartime government. 乌克兰总司令瑟尔斯基在2026年7月前离职的概率显著上升，此前泽连斯基总统解除了广受欢迎的国防部长费多罗夫的职务。此举预示着乌克兰战时领导层进入高度不稳定的时期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Zelenskyy's dismissal of popular Defense Minister Fedorov
  • Widespread public protests against Fedorov's ouster
  • Reports of internal clashes within Ukraine's top military brass
  • Zelenskyy's demonstrated willingness for leadership shake-ups
  • 泽连斯基解职受欢迎的国防部长费多罗夫
  • 公众对费多罗夫被免职的广泛抗议
  • 乌克兰高级军事领导层内部冲突报道
  • 泽连斯基展现出重组领导层意愿
This market reflects growing concerns about the stability of Ukraine's wartime leadership and potential internal divisions, which could impact military strategy and international support. Further leadership changes could signal deeper issues or a strategic pivot. 该市场反映了对乌克兰战时领导层稳定性和潜在内部裂痕日益增长的担忧，这可能影响军事战略和国际支持。进一步的领导层变动可能预示着更深层的问题或战略转向。
Vol 24h: $20,273 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Zelenskyy's demonstrated willingness to make unpopular leadership changes, like Fedorov's ouster, suggests Syrskyi could also be replaced if performance or political dynamics shift. 泽连斯基解职费多罗夫等不受欢迎的领导层变动，表明若军事表现或政治动态变化，瑟尔斯基也可能被替换。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Syrskyi's critical role in ongoing military operations against Russia might make his removal too disruptive for Zelenskyy, despite internal pressures. 瑟尔斯基在对俄军事行动中的关键作用，可能使泽连斯基认为在内部压力下将其撤职过于破坏性。
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500
#4 · Score 284

Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch? Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?

96% +28.1%

Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $8,586 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 239

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

74% +23.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,339 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 238

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31? Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?

2% -23.4%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $10,259 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 233

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

16% -23.0%

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $2,723 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 229

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

82% +22.5%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,937 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 186

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meet Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meet

24% +18.2%

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $3,021 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 176

Iran Gulf Action Zeroed 伊朗海湾军事行动归零

0% -17.1%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Probability for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13 dropped to 0% following intense US-Iran clashes. Despite headlines like "Iran Targets Gulf States," market resolution indicated no confirmed direct military action against a Gulf State. 7月13日伊朗对海湾国家采取军事行动的概率在美伊激烈冲突后降至0%。尽管有“伊朗瞄准海湾国家”等头条新闻，但市场决议显示，没有确认伊朗对海湾国家采取直接军事行动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Lack of confirmed direct Iranian military action against Gulf States.
  • Headlines focused on US strikes and Iranian retaliation against US assets.
  • Market resolution confirming specific event did not occur.
  • 缺乏伊朗对海湾国家直接军事行动的确认。
  • 新闻主要关注美军打击及伊朗报复美方资产。
  • 市场决议确认特定事件未发生。
This reflects the critical distinction between broader regional conflict and specific state-on-state military action. It highlights the market's precise interpretation of event criteria amidst high geopolitical tension. 这反映了更广泛的地区冲突与特定国家间军事行动的关键区别。它突显了市场在高地缘政治紧张局势下对事件标准的精确解读。
Vol 24h: $61,200 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 New, definitive evidence confirming Iran launched direct military attacks against a Gulf State on July 13. 出现新的确凿证据，证实伊朗于7月13日对海湾国家发动了直接军事袭击。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued lack of any credible reports or official confirmations of direct Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 13. 持续缺乏任何关于伊朗于7月13日对海湾国家采取直接军事行动的可信报告或官方确认。
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500
#11 · Score 133

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026

17% -12.8%

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $11,213 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 123

JPM $1T Cap Odds Drop 摩根大通万亿市值概率降

22% -12.0%

Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by August 31?

The probability of JPMorgan reaching a $1 trillion market cap by August 31 fell by 12% to 22%. This decline suggests that despite strong Q2 earnings and positive analyst outlooks, the market re-evaluated the feasibility of hitting the ambitious target within the tight deadline. 摩根大通(JPM)在8月31日前达到1万亿美元市值的可能性下降12%至22%。这表明尽管第二季度财报强劲且分析师看好，市场重新评估了在紧迫期限内实现这一宏伟目标的难度。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Market re-evaluation of JPM's path to $1 trillion by August 31.
  • Implied insufficient near-term catalysts to bridge the substantial market cap gap.
  • Analyst 'upside ahead' (Bank of America) perceived as longer-term, not by August 31.
  • 市场重新评估摩根大通在8月31日前达到万亿市值的路径。
  • 短期内缺乏足够催化剂来弥补巨大的市值差距。
  • 分析师（美国银行）提及的“上涨空间”被视为长期而非8月31日前。
JPMorgan's valuation reflects broader confidence in the financial sector and the economy's growth trajectory, influencing investor sentiment for major banks. 摩根大通的估值反映了市场对金融业和经济增长轨迹的信心，影响着主要银行的投资者情绪。
Vol 24h: $2,067 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained 'blockbuster earnings' and a rapid market rally could propel JPM to $1 trillion by August 31. 持续的“重磅财报”和市场快速上涨可能推动摩根大通在8月31日前达到1万亿美元市值。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite strong Q2 results, the short timeframe and significant market cap gap make the $1 trillion target highly improbable. 尽管二季度业绩强劲，但时间紧迫、市值差距大，万亿美元目标极难实现。
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500
#13 · Score 109

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19? Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19?

60% +10.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19?

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Vol 24h: $7,215 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 95

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July

52% -9.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

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Vol 24h: $42,477 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 94

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?

97% +8.9%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?

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Vol 24h: $45,934 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 94

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o

42% +9.0%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,795 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 89

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

43% +8.3%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

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Vol 24h: $118,697 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 80

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

11% +7.7%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

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Vol 24h: $1,114 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 57

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July? Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?

87% +5.3%

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?

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Vol 24h: $1,799 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 56

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2

34% +5.2%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $18,856 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 54

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

40% +5.0%

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

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Vol 24h: $31,818 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 54

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

36% +5.0%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $4,142 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 49

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20? Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20?

12% -4.5%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20?

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Vol 24h: $10,531 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 48

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 an

28% +4.5%

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $1,523 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 48

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24,

25% -4.5%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,129 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 45

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

18% +4.0%

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $160,438 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 45

Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

32% +4.0%

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $66,060 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 45

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31? Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?

1% -4.1%

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,919 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 44

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK

88% +4.0%

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $8,997 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 44

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?

30% -4.0%

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $16,085 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 43

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July? Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July?

11% -4.0%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $782 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。