AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 11, 2026 17:55 UTC
#1 · Score 504

Bitcoin Dumps, "Up" Probability Hits Zero 比特币暴跌，“上涨”概率归零

0% -50.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET

Bitcoin's probability of being "Up" by August 11, 12 PM ET plummeted to 0% as BTC opened down 1.4% at $63,912.50 and continued to fall to $63,700 by 8:32 AM ET. This sharp decline was driven by $144 million in BTC ETF outflows and selling pressure from a large entity, "Strategy." 比特币在8月11日中午12点（ET）前“上涨”的概率跌至0%，因为比特币当天开盘下跌1.4%至$63,912.50，并在上午8:32（ET）进一步跌至$63,700。此次急剧下跌主要受1.44亿美元比特币ETF资金流出和“Strategy”机构抛售的推动。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin opened down 1.4% on August 11.
  • $144 million BTC ETF outflows reported.
  • "Strategy" selling Bitcoin, impacting miner stocks.
  • 8月11日比特币开盘下跌1.4%。
  • 比特币ETF流出1.44亿美元。
  • “Strategy”抛售比特币，矿企股价下跌。
The immediate and confirmed price drop on the day of the market's close effectively settled the "Up or Down" outcome, highlighting the impact of institutional selling and ETF flows. 市场收盘当天价格已确认下跌，这有效决定了“涨跌”结果，突显机构抛售和ETF资金流向的影响。
Vol 24h: $30,113 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Large-scale Bitcoin investors are increasing balances, with wallets exceeding 10,000 BTC rising to a record 90. 大规模比特币投资者正在增持，持有超1万BTC的钱包数量增至90个创历史新高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Bitcoin's price is already significantly down on August 11 due to ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure. 比特币价格在8月11日因ETF资金流出和机构抛售已大幅下跌。
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500
#2 · Score 460

Oil Surges on Hormuz Tensions 霍尔木兹紧张局势推高油价

98% +45.6%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 11?

WTI crude's probability of closing above $81 on August 11 surged to 98% due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Iran hardened its terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz on August 10, causing oil prices to jump over 5%. 由于地缘政治紧张局势升级，WTI原油在8月11日收盘高于81美元的概率飙升至98%。8月10日，伊朗就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡提出更强硬条件，导致油价跳涨超过5%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran hardened terms for Hormuz reopening
  • WTI crude prices surged over 5%
  • Geopolitical tensions keep oil markets on edge
  • 伊朗就霍尔木兹海峡提出强硬条件
  • WTI原油价格飙升超过5%
  • 地缘政治紧张使石油市场承压
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and any disruption significantly impacts energy markets and the broader economy. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油供应的关键咽喉，任何中断都会严重影响能源市场和更广泛的经济。
Vol 24h: $10,484 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, will sustain upward pressure on WTI prices. 中东地缘政治持续不稳定，特别是霍尔木兹海峡周边，将继续推高WTI油价。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A de-escalation of tensions or a significant increase in global oil supply could cause WTI to fall below $81. 紧张局势缓解或全球石油供应显著增加，可能导致WTI油价跌破81美元。
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500
#3 · Score 435

SPX Up Probability Plunges 标普500上涨概率骤降

9% -43.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?

The probability of the S&P 500 closing up on August 11 has plummeted to 9% from 52% in 24 hours. This sharp decline is primarily driven by Wall Street's main indexes closing lower on Monday, influenced by escalating Middle East tensions. 标普500指数在8月11日收涨的概率在24小时内从52%骤降至9%。这一急剧下降主要受华尔街主要股指周一收跌以及中东局势紧张的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • S&P 500 slipped 0.06% and closed lower on Monday.
  • US-Iran impasse lifted oil prices, signaling economic headwinds.
  • Concerns over profit-taking after 8.5% year-to-date SPX return.
  • 标普500指数周一收盘下跌0.06%。
  • 美伊僵局推高油价，预示经济逆风。
  • 市场担忧标普500年内8.5%涨幅后的获利回吐。
This movement reflects heightened investor concern over geopolitical risks and potential market corrections, impacting broader economic sentiment and stability. 这一变化反映了投资者对地缘政治风险和潜在市场回调的担忧加剧，影响更广泛的经济情绪和稳定性。
Vol 24h: $52,540 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation of Middle East tensions or stronger-than-expected economic data could reverse the recent market downturn. 中东局势缓和或经济数据超预期可能逆转近期市场跌势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability and profit-taking after recent gains will likely keep the S&P 500 under pressure. 地缘政治持续不稳定及近期涨幅后的获利回吐将使标普500承压。
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500
#4 · Score 419

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 11? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 11?

100% +41.4%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 11?

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Vol 24h: $21,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 408

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 10 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 10 2026?

100% +40.5%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,997 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 400

SPY Upside Probability Plunges SPY上涨概率骤降

11% -39.5%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?

The probability of SPY rising on August 11 has sharply fallen by 39.5% to 11%, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions following Trump's demands from Iran. SPY在8月11日上涨的概率已急剧下降39.5%至11%，主要受特朗普向伊朗索赔引发的地缘政治紧张局势加剧影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Trump demands compensation from Iran, raising geopolitical risk.
  • Anticipation of profit-taking after SPY's record close.
  • General market uncertainty from mixed premarket.
  • 特朗普要求伊朗赔偿，地缘政治风险上升。
  • SPY创纪录收盘后，市场预期获利回吐。
  • 盘前信号不一，市场普遍存在不确定性。
This significant shift indicates heightened investor caution and potential risk aversion, impacting broader market stability. 这一重大转变表明投资者谨慎情绪加剧，潜在的避险情绪可能影响市场整体稳定。
Vol 24h: $34,742 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong corporate earnings or positive economic data could override geopolitical concerns, pushing SPY higher. 强劲的企业盈利或积极的经济数据可能盖过地缘政治担忧，推动SPY上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Geopolitical tensions with Iran and profit-taking after a strong rally are likely to suppress SPY's performance. 与伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势及强劲反弹后的获利回吐，可能抑制SPY的表现。
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500
#7 · Score 333

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 10 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 10 2026?

100% +33.0%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,308 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 304

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

46% +30.0%

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

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Vol 24h: $3,864 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 286

Hormuz Transit Fears Recede 霍尔木兹海峡通行担忧消退

1% -28.1%

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

The probability of fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between Aug 3-9 dropped by 28.1% to 1%, as new information confirmed normal shipping traffic despite Iran's ongoing rhetoric regarding the Strait's status. 霍尔木兹海峡在8月3日至9日期间通行船只少于25艘的概率下降了28.1%至1%，这表明尽管伊朗持续发表相关言论，但新信息确认了正常航运量。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reports confirmed normal commercial shipping volume (25+ ships) in Strait of Hormuz for Aug 3-9.
  • Market interpreted Iran's 'won't open' statement (Aug 10) as rhetoric not impacting Aug 3-9 transits.
  • Absence of any reported maritime incidents or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz during Aug 3-9.
  • 报告确认霍尔木兹海峡在8月3-9日期间商业航运量正常（25艘以上）。
  • 市场将伊朗“不会开放”的声明（8月10日）解读为言论，未影响8月3-9日的通行。
  • 8月3-9日期间霍尔木兹海峡未报告任何海上事故或中断。
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, making its stability vital for energy markets and international trade. Sustained normal transit indicates a temporary de-escalation of immediate threats to this crucial waterway. 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的关键咽喉要道，其稳定对能源市场和国际贸易至关重要。持续的正常通行表明对这条关键水道的直接威胁暂时有所缓和。
Vol 24h: $10,469 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Iran could escalate threats into actual disruptions, closing the Strait of Hormuz and halting traffic. 伊朗可能将威胁升级为实际干扰，关闭霍尔木兹海峡并停止通行。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 International pressure and economic realities prevent Iran from closing the Strait, ensuring continued normal transit. 国际压力和经济现实阻止伊朗关闭海峡，确保航运持续正常通行。
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500
#10 · Score 249

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August? Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August?

100% +24.4%

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August?

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Vol 24h: $63,707 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#11 · Score 249

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 11? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 11?

75% +24.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 11?

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Vol 24h: $15,306 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 239

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August? Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

14% -23.4%

Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?

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Vol 24h: $18,641 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#13 · Score 233

PLTR $180 Target Probability Drops PLTR触及180美元概率下降

55% -23.0%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 10 2026?

The probability of PLTR hitting $180 by August 10, 2026, fell 23% to 55%, primarily driven by a Finbold AI Agent predicting a lower $178.76 price by August 31. Despite a 1.87% gain to $175.23 on Monday, the AI's forecast suggests difficulty reaching the $180 high this week. PLTR在2026年8月10日当周触及180美元的概率下降23%至55%，主要原因是Finbold AI预测8月31日股价为178.76美元。尽管周一股价上涨1.87%至175.23美元，AI预测表明本周难以达到180美元高点。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Finbold AI predicts PLTR $178.76 by August 31.
  • PLTR closed Monday at $175.23, $4.77 below $180 target.
  • No immediate catalyst for rapid $4.77 surge this week.
  • Finbold AI预测PLTR 8月31日为178.76美元。
  • PLTR周一收盘175.23美元，未达180美元。
  • 本周缺乏股价快速上涨的催化剂。
This market reflects investor confidence in Palantir's short-term growth trajectory and its ability to meet aggressive price targets. 该市场反映了投资者对Palantir短期增长轨迹及其实现激进价格目标的信心。
Vol 24h: $2,424 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong daily gains and unexpected positive news could push PLTR above $180 this week from its current $175.23. 强劲的每日涨幅和意外利好消息可能推动PLTR本周突破180美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Finbold AI's $178.76 prediction for August 31 suggests PLTR may not reach $180 high this week. Finbold AI预测8月31日为178.76美元，暗示PLTR本周难达180美元高点。
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500
#14 · Score 208

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $53 Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $53

40% +20.4%

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?

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Vol 24h: $2,232 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
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500
#15 · Score 207

Meta Legal Clarity Fuels Rally Meta法律明朗化推高股价

100% +20.4%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $610 Week of August 10 2026?

Meta Platforms' probability of hitting $610 by August 10, 2026, surged to 100% following a New Mexico judge's ruling. The market likely viewed the $567 million fine as less severe than anticipated, removing a significant legal overhang. 随着新墨西哥州法官裁定Meta支付5.67亿美元，Meta股价在2026年8月10日当周触及610美元的概率飙升至100%。市场可能认为罚款低于预期，消除了重大法律不确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • New Mexico judge's $567M fine potentially lower than market expectations.
  • Resolution of specific youth mental health lawsuit removes regulatory uncertainty.
  • Investor focus shifts to Meta's strong AI and core advertising growth.
  • 新墨西哥州裁决的5.67亿美元罚款可能低于市场预期。
  • 特定青少年心理健康诉讼解决，消除了监管不确定性。
  • 投资者重新聚焦Meta强劲的AI和核心广告业务增长。
This ruling could set a precedent for future youth mental health litigation, potentially limiting Meta's overall financial exposure and allowing greater focus on innovation. 此裁决可能为未来青少年心理健康诉讼树立先例，限制Meta整体财务风险，使其更专注于创新。
Vol 24h: $671 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Resolution of legal uncertainty and a manageable fine allows Meta's strong AI growth and advertising revenue to drive the stock past $610. 法律不确定性消除和可控罚款，将使Meta强劲的AI增长和广告收入推动股价突破610美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Despite the ruling, ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential future fines could still hinder Meta's growth and valuation. 尽管有此裁决，持续的监管审查和潜在未来罚款仍可能阻碍Meta的增长和估值。
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500
#16 · Score 198

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of August 10 202 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of August 10 202

50% +19.5%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,203 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#17 · Score 194

Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14? Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?

58% -19.0%

Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14?

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Vol 24h: $13,840 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 188

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of August 10 2026? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of August 10 2026?

8% -18.5%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of August 10 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,393 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 174

Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?

24% -17.0%

Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?

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Vol 24h: $8,018 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 173

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

72% +17.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in August?

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Vol 24h: $924 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 173

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August?

55% -17.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $700 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 163

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15

32% -16.0%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,786 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 159

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?

100% +15.4%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $11,130 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 152

Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?

59% +14.9%

Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,081 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#25 · Score 149

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?

68% +14.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $3,591 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 128

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026? Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026?

56% +12.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,592 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#27 · Score 124

Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026? Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?

100% +11.9%

Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $32,098 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#28 · Score 118

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?

40% +11.5%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,019 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
#29 · Score 103

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of August 10 2026? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of August 10 2026?

24% +10.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of August 10 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $921 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
Loading…
500
#30 · Score 94

Anthropic IPO before 2027? Anthropic IPO before 2027?

82% +9.0%

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $18,407 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
Loading…
500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

Loading…
Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。